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UL

Louisiana 34 at Texas State 10

TXST
2014 · Week 8 · Oct 14, 2014 · Bobcat Stadium (TX)
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Win probability · TXST
modelTXST aheadUL aheadconfidence bandkey playTXST scoreUL score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDTDTDFGFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:00 · Effrem Reed run for 3 yds to the LaLaf 25
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorPregame priorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+56.0+28.00−28.0−56.0Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. FG · Q2 14:22: Will Johnson 20 Yd Field Goal — TXST win probability +2.5 pts (now 57%) (top driver: TXST +2 timeouts on the defense).
  2. TD · Q2 9:07: Tyler Jones sacked for a loss of 7 yds to the TexSt 42, Tyler Jones fumble at the TexSt 41, recovered by Christian Ringo 41 Yd Fumble Return (Hunter Stover Kick) — UL win probability +6.5 pts (now 52%) (top driver: TXST has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 5:59: Alonzo Harris 1 Yd Run (Hunter Stover Kick) — UL win probability +3.2 pts (now 62%) (top driver: UL has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 9:29: Elijah McGuire 13 Yd Run (Hunter Stover Kick) — UL win probability +11.6 pts (now 96%) (top driver: UL has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 1:04: Brice Gunter 33 Yd pass from Tyler Jones (Will Johnson Kick) — TXST win probability +0.9 pts (now 1%) (top driver: TXST has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TXST made the numbers' call on 6 of 10UL made the numbers' call on 5 of 8
  1. Q1 12:53TXST 4th & 2 at TXST 27, down 7
    Close callPunted · 58.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.1%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    58.1%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:15UL 4th & 10 at TXST 44, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 42.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.8%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    42.7%−0.2
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    42.9%
    average punt
  3. Q1 8:25TXST 4th & 15 at TXST 21, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 56.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.7%−0.6
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    56.3%
    average punt
  4. Q1 5:11UL 4th & 5 at TXST 29, up 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 45.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.2%
    41% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    45.2%−<0.1
    58% to make
    Punt
    43.6%−1.6
    average punt
  5. Q1 3:53TXST 4th & 2 at TXST 37, down 7
    Close callPunted · 54.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.7%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    54.5%−0.2
    average punt
  6. Q1 2:08UL 4th & 10 at UL 10, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 45.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.1%−0.6
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    45.6%
    average punt
  7. Q2 14:22TXST 4th & 3 at UL 3, down 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 53.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.8%
    44% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    52.9%−0.9
    93% to make
    Punt
    48.0%−5.8
    average punt
  8. Q2 11:56UL 4th & 14 at UL 33, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 43.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.6%−1.7
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    44.3%
    average punt
  9. Q2 7:19TXST 4th & 11 at TXST 18, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 41.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.6%−1.1
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    41.7%
    average punt
  10. Q2 4:10TXST 4th & 8 at TXST 27, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.9%−1.2
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.1%
    average punt
  11. Q2 0:33UL 4th & 7 at TXST 45, up 18
    Close callPunted · 78.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.9%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    77.8%−0.1
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    77.6%−0.3
    average punt
  12. Q3 14:29TXST 4th & 7 at TXST 28, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.4%−1.1
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    25.4%
    average punt
  13. Q3 7:25TXST 4th & 5 at UL 49, down 25
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.4%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.5%
    average punt
  14. Q3 2:06TXST 4th & 4 at TXST 46, down 25
    Close callPunted · 1.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.0%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.8%−0.1
    average punt
  15. Q4 10:18UL 4th & 2 at TXST 2, up 25
    Close callKicked a field goal · 99.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.3%
    48% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    98.9%−0.3
    94% to make
    Punt
    97.6%−1.7
    average punt
  16. Q4 8:36TXST 4th & 4 at UL 38, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.4%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    0.3%−<0.1
    38% to make
    Punt
    0.3%−<0.1
    average punt
  17. Q4 4:13UL 4th & 2 at TXST 29, up 28
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.8%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    99.7%−0.1
    58% to make
    Punt
    99.4%−0.4
    average punt
  18. Q4 2:04UL 4th & 6 at TXST 16, up 28
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.7%−<0.1
    38% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    99.7%
    81% to make
    Punt
    99.4%−0.3
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TXST made the numbers' call on 1 of 1UL made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 14:16UL Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    41.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    41.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 9:07UL Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    54.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    54.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 5:59UL Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    66.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    65.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 9:29UL Touchdown, up 24 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    91.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 1:04TXST Touchdown, down 25 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.3%−0.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ULDrive 1TD
3 plays · 70 yds · 0:3942% → 43%
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+8
57.7%
Alonzo Harris run for 8 yds to the LaLaf 38Similar
Q1 14:16
2ND & 2
OWN 38
+62
57.4%
Elijah McGuire 62 Yd pass from Terrance Broadway (Hunter Stover Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 1:1757% → 57%
Q1 14:10
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+1
57.4%
Tyler Jones run for 1 yd to the TexSt 20Similar
Q1 13:34
2ND & 9
OWN 20
+7
57.2%
Terrence Franks run for 7 yds to the TexSt 27Similar
Q1 13:05
3RD & 2
OWN 27
0
57.1%
Tyler Jones pass incomplete to Ryan CardenSimilar
Q1 12:53
4TH & 2
OWN 27
+10
56.9%
Will Johnson punt for 58 yds , Elijah McGuire returns for 10 yds to the LaLaf 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 3PUNT
8 plays · 19 yds · 2:3043% → 44%
Q1 12:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+21
56.9%
Terrance Broadway run for 21 yds to the LaLaf 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:19
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
56.6%
Terrance Broadway pass incomplete to Jamal RobinsonSimilar
Q1 12:15
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+10
56.7%
Alonzo Harris run for 10 yds to the TexSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:48
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-24
56.4%
Terrance Broadway sacked by TEAM for a loss of 12 yards to the TEXSTATE 44 UL LAFAYETTE Penalty, Intentional Grounding (Terrance Broadway) to the LaLaf 44Similar
Q1 11:30
2ND & 22
OWN 44
+2
56.6%
Alonzo Harris run for 2 yds to the LaLaf 46Similar
Q1 11:15
3RD & 20
OWN 46
+10
56.5%
Terrance Broadway run for 10 yds to the TexSt 44Similar
Q1 10:15
4TH & 10
OPP 44
0
56.2%
Daniel Cadona punt for 32 yds, downed at the TexSt 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 4PUNT
6 plays · 9 yds · 1:4556% → 55%
Q1 10:10
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+5
56.2%
Robert Lowe run for 5 yds to the TexSt 17Similar
Q1 9:48
2ND & 5
OWN 17
+9
56.1%
C.J. Best run for 9 yds to the TexSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:30
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+1
56.1%
Robert Lowe run for 1 yd to the TexSt 27Similar
Q1 8:45
2ND & 9
OWN 27
-6
55.6%
Tyler Jones sacked by Christian Ringo for a loss of 6 yards to the TexSt 21Similar
Q1 8:39
3RD & 15
OWN 21
0
55.3%
Tyler Jones pass incomplete to Demun MercerSimilar
Q1 8:25
4TH & 15
OWN 21
+12
55.2%
Will Johnson punt for 55 yds , Elijah McGuire returns for 12 yds to the LaLaf 33 UL LAFAYETTE Penalty, Illegal Block (Devin Scott) to the LaLaf 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 5MISSED FG
8 plays · 45 yds · 2:5545% → 46%
Q1 8:06
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+2
55.4%
Alonzo Harris run for 2 yds to the LaLaf 28Similar
Q1 8:00
2ND & 8
OWN 28
+23
55.3%
Terrance Broadway pass complete to James Butler for 23 yds to the TexSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:20
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+4
54.2%
Alonzo Harris run for 4 yds to the TexSt 45Similar
Q1 6:47
2ND & 6
OPP 45
+11
54.0%
Terrance Broadway run for 11 yds to the TexSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:40
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+5
53.9%
Alonzo Harris run for 5 yds to the TexSt 29Similar
Q1 5:54
2ND & 5
OPP 29
0
53.5%
Terrance Broadway run for no gain to the TexSt 29Similar
Q1 5:17
3RD & 5
OPP 29
0
53.4%
Terrance Broadway pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:11
4TH & 5
OPP 29
+46
53.9%
Hunter Stover 46 Yard Field Goal MissedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 1:1855% → 54%
Q1 5:11
1ST & 10
OWN 29
-5
54.6%
TEXAS STATE Penalty, Ineligible Downfield on Pass (Matt Freeman) to the TexSt 24Similar
Q1 5:00
1ST & 15
OWN 24
+8
54.3%
Terrence Franks run for 8 yds to the TexSt 32Similar
Q1 4:32
2ND & 7
OWN 32
+5
54.4%
Tyler Jones run for 5 yds to the TexSt 37Similar
Q1 4:01
3RD & 2
OWN 37
0
54.5%
Tyler Jones pass incomplete to C.J. BestSimilar
Q1 3:53
4TH & 2
OWN 37
0
54.0%
Will Johnson punt for 53 yds, fair catch by Elijah McGuire at the LaLaf 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 7PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 1:4246% → 46%
Q1 3:50
1ST & 10
OWN 10
-8
53.9%
Terrance Broadway sacked by Michael Odiari for a loss of 8 yards to the LaLaf 2Similar
Q1 2:58
2ND & 18
OWN 2
+5
54.0%
Terrance Broadway run for 5 yds to the LaLaf 7Similar
Q1 2:23
3RD & 13
OWN 7
+3
54.0%
Terrance Broadway pass complete to Gabe Fuselier for 3 yds to the LaLaf 10Similar
Q1 2:08
4TH & 10
OWN 10
0
53.9%
Daniel Cadona punt for 16 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the LaLaf 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 8FG
9 plays · 23 yds · 2:3855% → 57%
Q1 2:00
1ST & 10
OPP 26
-1
55.3%
Tyler Jones run for a loss of 1 yard to the LaLaf 27Similar
Q1 1:32
2ND & 11
OPP 27
+4
55.2%
C.J. Best run for 4 yds to the LaLaf 23Similar
Q1 1:03
3RD & 7
OPP 23
-5
54.7%
TEXAS STATE Penalty, False Start (Ryan Carden) to the LaLaf 28Similar
Q1 0:59
3RD & 12
OPP 28
+18
54.2%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Bradley Miller for 18 yds to the LaLaf 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:33
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+3
55.4%
Robert Lowe run for 3 yds to the LaLaf 7Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+2
55.4%
Tyler Jones run for 2 yds to the LaLaf 5Similar
Q2 14:53
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+2
54.4%
Tyler Jones run for 2 yds to the LaLaf 3Similar
Q2 14:22
4TH & GOAL
OPP 3
+20
57.0%
Will Johnson 20 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 9PUNT
9 plays · 8 yds · 2:2644% → 44%
Q2 14:22
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
55.8%
UL LAFAYETTE Penalty, False Start (Larry Pettis) to the LaLaf 20Similar
Q2 14:22
1ST & 15
OWN 20
-5
56.2%
UL LAFAYETTE Penalty, False Start (Larry Pettis) to the LaLaf 15Similar
Q2 14:10
1ST & 20
OWN 15
+19
56.2%
Terrance Broadway run for 19 yds to the LaLaf 34Similar
Q2 13:43
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+3
55.0%
Alonzo Harris run for 3 yds to the LaLaf 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:10
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+2
55.0%
Alonzo Harris run for 2 yds to the LaLaf 39Similar
Q2 12:47
2ND & 8
OWN 39
0
54.0%
Terrance Broadway pass incomplete to Elijah McGuireSimilar
Q2 12:40
3RD & 8
OWN 39
-6
54.4%
Terrance Broadway sacked by Dallas McClarty for a loss of 6 yards to the LaLaf 33Similar
Q2 11:56
4TH & 14
OWN 33
+7
56.2%
Daniel Cadona punt for 54 yds , Craig Mager returns for 7 yds to the TexSt 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 10FUMBLE RETURN TD
8 plays · 22 yds · 2:4056% → 48%
Q2 11:47
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
55.6%
Tyler Jones run for 5 yds to the TexSt 25Similar
Q2 11:23
2ND & 5
OWN 25
+4
55.9%
Terrence Franks run for 4 yds to the TexSt 29Similar
Q2 10:59
3RD & 1
OWN 29
+3
55.5%
Tyler Jones run for 3 yds to the TexSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:40
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+5
55.8%
Terrence Franks run for 5 yds to the TexSt 37Similar
Q2 10:18
2ND & 5
OWN 37
0
57.1%
Terrence Franks run for no gain to the TexSt 37Similar
Q2 9:48
3RD & 5
OWN 37
-5
55.2%
TEXAS STATE Penalty, False Start (Brandon Smith) to the TexSt 32Similar
Q2 9:23
3RD & 10
OWN 32
+17
54.2%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Brice Gunter for 17 yds to the TexSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:07
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-41
47.7%
Tyler Jones sacked for a loss of 7 yds to the TexSt 42, Tyler Jones fumble at the TexSt 41, recovered by Christian Ringo 41 Yd Fumble Return (Hunter Stover Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 11PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 1:3346% → 43%
Q2 8:52
1ST & 10
OWN 19
0
46.0%
Robert Lowe run for no gain to the TexSt 19Similar
Q2 8:26
2ND & 10
OWN 19
+3
44.9%
Robert Lowe run for 3 yds to the TexSt 22Similar
Q2 8:20
3RD & 7
OWN 22
-4
44.3%
Tyler Jones sacked by Marquis White and Darzil Washington for a loss of 4 yards to the TexSt 18Similar
Q2 7:19
4TH & 11
OWN 18
0
42.5%
Will Johnson punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Elijah McGuire at the LaLaf 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 12TD
4 plays · 62 yds · 1:1358% → 62%
Q2 7:12
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+21
42.5%
Terrance Broadway pass complete to Elijah McGuire for 21 yds to the TexSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:53
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+4
41.8%
Terrance Broadway run for 4 yds to the TexSt 37Similar
Q2 6:20
2ND & 6
OPP 37
+36
41.3%
Elijah McGuire run for 36 yds to the TexSt 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:59
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
38.1%
Alonzo Harris 1 Yd Run (Hunter Stover Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 13PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 1:3534% → 32%
Q2 5:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
34.1%
Terrence Franks run for 3 yds to the TexSt 28Similar
Q2 5:18
2ND & 7
OWN 28
-4
33.8%
C.J. Best run for a loss of 4 yards to the TexSt 24Similar
Q2 4:43
3RD & 11
OWN 24
+3
32.0%
Tyler Jones pass complete to C.J. Best for 3 yds to the TexSt 27Similar
Q2 4:10
4TH & 8
OWN 27
0
31.7%
Will Johnson punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Elijah McGuire at the LaLaf 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 14PUNT
10 plays · 27 yds · 3:2766% → 79%
Q2 4:00
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+7
33.8%
Terrance Broadway pass complete to Elijah McGuire for 7 yds to the LaLaf 35Similar
Q2 3:19
2ND & 3
OWN 35
+4
32.0%
Terrance Broadway run for 4 yds to the LaLaf 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:05
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+3
31.1%
Terrance Broadway run for 3 yds to the LaLaf 42 Terrance Broadway fumbled, forced by David Mayo, recovered by LaLafSimilar
Q2 3:00
2ND & 7
OWN 42
+10
31.1%
Alonzo Harris run for 10 yds to the TexSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:30
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+5
29.8%
Terrance Broadway pass complete to Gabe Fuselier for 5 yds to the TexSt 43Similar
Q2 1:45
2ND & 5
OPP 43
+1
22.2%
Elijah McGuire run for 1 yd to the TexSt 42Similar
Q2 1:20
3RD & 4
OPP 42
+2
21.3%
Terrance Broadway run for 2 yds to the TexSt 40Similar
Q2 0:41
4TH & 2
OPP 40
-5
21.6%
UL LAFAYETTE Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the TexSt 45Similar
Q2 0:33
4TH & 7
OPP 45
0
21.4%
Daniel Cadona punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Craig Mager at the TexSt 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 15END OF HALF
3 plays · 24 yds · 0:2626% → 25%
Q2 0:26
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+4
26.3%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Bradley Miller for 4 yds to the TexSt 17Similar
Q2 0:05
2ND & 6
OWN 17
+3
25.5%
Robert Lowe run for 3 yds to the TexSt 20Similar
Q2 0:00
3RD & 3
OWN 20
+17
25.1%
Robert Lowe run for 17 yds to the TexSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:2624% → 24%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
24.4%
Tyler Jones pass incomplete to C.J. BestSimilar
Q3 14:50
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+3
24.1%
Tyler Jones run for 3 yds to the TexSt 28Similar
Q3 14:33
3RD & 7
OWN 28
0
23.9%
Tyler Jones pass incomplete to Ben IjahSimilar
Q3 14:29
4TH & 7
OWN 28
0
23.7%
Will Johnson punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Elijah McGuire at the LaLaf 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 17TD
11 plays · 70 yds · 4:4979% → 96%
Q3 14:18
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+6
21.1%
Terrance Broadway pass complete to Larry Pettis for 6 yds to the LaLaf 36Similar
Q3 13:56
2ND & 4
OWN 36
+3
20.5%
Elijah McGuire run for 3 yds to the LaLaf 39Similar
Q3 13:22
3RD & 1
OWN 39
+2
20.1%
Alonzo Harris run for 2 yds to the LaLaf 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:50
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+1
19.1%
Terrance Broadway run for 1 yd to the LaLaf 42Similar
Q3 12:21
2ND & 9
OWN 42
0
18.7%
Terrance Broadway pass incomplete to James ButlerSimilar
Q3 12:15
3RD & 9
OWN 42
+11
18.7%
Terrance Broadway pass complete to Al Riles for 11 yds to the TexSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:45
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-1
17.7%
Terrance Broadway run for a loss of 1 yard to the TexSt 48Similar
Q3 11:01
2ND & 11
OPP 48
+14
17.1%
Terrance Broadway pass complete to Al Riles for 14 yds to the TexSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:35
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+7
16.4%
Terrance Broadway pass complete to Nick Byrne for 7 yds to the TexSt 27Similar
Q3 10:00
2ND & 3
OPP 27
+14
15.4%
Terrance Broadway run for 14 yds to the TexSt 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:29
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+13
3.8%
Elijah McGuire 13 Yd Run (Hunter Stover Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 18PUNT
7 plays · 26 yds · 1:544% → 3%
Q3 9:19
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
3.5%
Robert Lowe run for 4 yds to the TexSt 29Similar
Q3 8:52
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+17
3.3%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Jafus Gaines for 17 yds to the TexSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:32
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-2
3.2%
Tyler Jones run for a loss of 2 yards to the TexSt 44Similar
Q3 8:10
2ND & 12
OWN 44
0
3.0%
Tyler Jones pass incomplete to Bradley MillerSimilar
Q3 7:54
3RD & 12
OWN 44
+7
2.9%
Tyler Jones run for 7 yds to the LaLaf 49Similar
Q3 7:25
4TH & 5
OPP 49
0
2.9%
Will Johnson punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Elijah McGuire at the LaLaf 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 19INT
9 plays · 48 yds · 3:3497% → 98%
Q3 7:20
1ST & 10
OWN 13
0
3.4%
Terrance Broadway pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:10
2ND & 10
OWN 13
+7
3.4%
Terrance Broadway pass complete to Devin Scott for 7 yds to the LaLaf 20Similar
Q3 6:28
3RD & 3
OWN 20
+5
2.9%
Alonzo Harris run for 5 yds to the LaLaf 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
2.6%
Terrance Broadway pass incomplete to Devin ScottSimilar
Q3 5:47
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+9
2.6%
Terrance Broadway run for 9 yds to the LaLaf 34Similar
Q3 5:06
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+10
2.4%
Terrance Broadway run for 10 yds to the LaLaf 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:45
1ST & 10
OWN 44
-5
2.1%
UL LAFAYETTE Penalty, False Start (Jarad Martin) to the LaLaf 39Similar
Q3 4:30
1ST & 15
OWN 39
+27
2.1%
Terrance Broadway pass complete to Elijah McGuire for a loss of 5 yards to the TexSt 34, lat. to Al Riles for 27 yds to the TexSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:46
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+23
1.7%
Terrance Broadway pass intercepted David Mims return for 23 yds to the TexSt 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 20PUNT
6 plays · 20 yds · 1:242% → 2%
Q3 3:30
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+6
1.9%
Tyler Jones run for 6 yds to the TexSt 32Similar
Q3 3:15
2ND & 4
OWN 32
+8
1.9%
C.J. Best run for 8 yds to the TexSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+3
1.8%
Terrence Franks run for 3 yds to the TexSt 43Similar
Q3 2:30
2ND & 7
OWN 43
+3
1.6%
Tyler Jones run for 3 yds to the TexSt 46Similar
Q3 2:14
3RD & 4
OWN 46
0
1.6%
Tyler Jones pass incomplete to Ben IjahSimilar
Q3 2:06
4TH & 4
OWN 46
0
1.6%
Will Johnson punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Elijah McGuire at the LaLaf 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 21FG
13 plays · 81 yds · 6:4299% → 100%
Q3 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+2
1.5%
Elijah McGuire run for 2 yds to the LaLaf 19Similar
Q3 1:29
2ND & 8
OWN 19
+15
1.5%
Terrance Broadway run for 15 yds to the LaLaf 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:03
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+3
1.4%
Elijah McGuire run for 3 yds to the LaLaf 37Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 7
OWN 37
+6
1.2%
Elijah McGuire run for 6 yds to the LaLaf 43Similar
Q4 14:54
3RD & 1
OWN 43
+4
1.1%
Alonzo Harris run for 4 yds to the LaLaf 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:34
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+8
1.1%
Terrance Broadway pass complete to Larry Pettis for 8 yds to the TexSt 45Similar
Q4 14:03
2ND & 2
OPP 45
+11
1.0%
Alonzo Harris run for 11 yds to the TexSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:30
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+1
0.9%
Alonzo Harris run for 1 yd to the TexSt 33Similar
Q4 12:55
2ND & 9
OPP 33
+29
0.9%
Terrance Broadway pass complete to Al Riles for 29 yds to the TexSt 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
0
0.7%
Elijah McGuire run for no gain to the TexSt 4Similar
Q4 11:30
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+2
0.6%
Alonzo Harris run for 2 yds to the TexSt 2Similar
Q4 11:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
0
0.6%
Alonzo Harris run for no gain to the TexSt 2Similar
Q4 10:18
4TH & GOAL
OPP 2
+19
0.5%
Hunter Stover 19 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 22DOWNS
9 plays · 40 yds · 1:310% → 0%
Q4 10:07
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+20
0.4%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Ben Ijah for 20 yds to the TexSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:56
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+11
0.4%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Ben Ijah for 11 yds to the LaLaf 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:35
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+6
0.4%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Jafus Gaines for 6 yds to the LaLaf 38Similar
Q4 9:30
2ND & 4
OPP 38
-5
0.4%
Tyler Jones sacked by Christian Ringo for a loss of 5 yards to the LaLaf 43Similar
Q4 8:52
3RD & 9
OPP 43
0
0.3%
Tyler Jones pass incomplete to Ben IjahSimilar
Q4 8:52
4TH & 9
OPP 43
+5
0.3%
UL LAFAYETTE Penalty, Defensive Offside (Marquis White) to the LaLaf 38Similar
Q4 8:36
4TH & 4
OPP 38
+3
0.3%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Ben Ijah for 3 yds to the LaLaf 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 23DOWNS
9 plays · 37 yds · 4:07100% → 100%
Q4 8:20
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+6
0.3%
Effrem Reed run for 6 yds to the LaLaf 41Similar
Q4 7:55
2ND & 4
OWN 41
+3
0.2%
Effrem Reed run for 3 yds to the LaLaf 44Similar
Q4 7:40
3RD & 1
OWN 44
+7
0.2%
Alonzo Harris run for 7 yds to the TexSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:50
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
0.2%
Effrem Reed run for no gain to the TexSt 49Similar
Q4 6:45
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+12
0.2%
Brooks Haack pass complete to Evan Tatford for 12 yds to the TexSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:59
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
0.2%
Brooks Haack run for no gain to the TexSt 37Similar
Q4 5:00
2ND & 10
OPP 37
+6
0.2%
Brooks Haack run for 6 yds to the TexSt 31Similar
Q4 4:50
3RD & 4
OPP 31
+2
0.2%
Brooks Haack run for 2 yds to the TexSt 29Similar
Q4 4:13
4TH & 2
OPP 29
+1
0.2%
Brooks Haack run for 1 yd to the TexSt 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 24INT
2 plays · -5 yds · 0:090% → 0%
Q4 4:13
1ST & 10
OWN 28
-5
0.2%
TEXAS STATE Penalty, False Start (Ryan Melton) to the TexSt 23Similar
Q4 4:04
1ST & 15
OWN 23
+19
0.2%
Tyler Jones pass intercepted Corey Trim return for 19 yds to the TexSt 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 25FG
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:56100% → 100%
Q4 4:00
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+3
0.1%
Brooks Haack pass complete to Gabe Fuselier for 3 yds to the TexSt 17Similar
Q4 3:25
2ND & 7
OPP 17
+2
0.1%
Effrem Reed run for 2 yds to the TexSt 15Similar
Q4 2:40
3RD & 5
OPP 15
-1
0.1%
Effrem Reed run for a loss of 1 yard to the TexSt 16Similar
Q4 2:04
4TH & 6
OPP 16
+32
0.1%
Hunter Stover 32 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 26TD
6 plays · 77 yds · 0:560% → 1%
Q4 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+7
0.1%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Randy Price for 7 yds to the TexSt 30Similar
Q4 1:46
2ND & 3
OWN 30
+6
0.1%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Randy Price for 6 yds to the TexSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:36
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+25
0.1%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Lawrence White for 25 yds to the LaLaf 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:28
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+6
0.1%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Lawrence White for 6 yds to the LaLaf 33Similar
Q4 1:04
2ND & 4
OPP 33
+33
1.0%
Brice Gunter 33 Yd pass from Tyler Jones (Will Johnson Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 27END OF GAME
8 plays · 13 yds · 0:58100% → 100%
Q4 0:58
1ST & 10
OWN 12
-2
0.3%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the LaLaf 10Similar
Q4 0:51
2ND & 12
OWN 10
+7
0.3%
Brooks Haack run for 7 yds to the LaLaf 17Similar
Q4 0:44
3RD & 5
OWN 17
+5
0.3%
Effrem Reed run for 5 yds to the LaLaf 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+3
0.3%
Effrem Reed run for 3 yds to the LaLaf 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 9:29
Elijah McGuire 13 Yd Run (Hunter Stover Kick)
-11.6
TD · Q2 9:07
Tyler Jones sacked for a loss of 7 yds to the TexSt 42, Tyler Jones fumble at the TexSt 41, recovered by Christian Ringo 41 Yd Fumble Return (Hunter Stover Kick)
-6.5
TD · Q2 5:59
Alonzo Harris 1 Yd Run (Hunter Stover Kick)
-3.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com