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UL

Louisiana 42 at Troy 23

TROY
2014 · Week 14 · Nov 29, 2014 · Veterans Memorial Stadium (AL)
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Win probability · TROY
modelTROY aheadUL aheadconfidence bandkey playTROY scoreUL score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDSAFETYTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of GameTD-5.2TROY 0.6%Alonzo Harris run for 1 yd for a TD,(Hunter Stover KICK)AWAY 42 - HOME 23 · Q4 3:48
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 3:48 · Alonzo Harris run for 1 yd for a TD, (Hunter Stover KICK)
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+52.5+26.30−26.3−52.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 154Pregame prior−1.9Home team on offense−51.1Score differential−26.3Garbage-time factor−10.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−11.4Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−11.5
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 2:59: Brandon Silvers pass complete to Teddy Ruben for 17 yds for a TD, (Ryan Kay KICK) — TROY win probability +12.4 pts (now 46%) (top driver: TROY has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 2:49: Elijah McGuire run for 75 yds for a TD, (Hunter Stover KICK) — UL win probability +14.7 pts (now 71%) (top driver: UL has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 1:01: Brandon Silvers pass complete to B.J. Chitty for 5 yds for a TD, (Ryan Kay KICK) — TROY win probability +13.6 pts (now 47%) (top driver: TROY has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 10:00: Alonzo Harris run for 1 yd for a TD, (Hunter Stover KICK) — UL win probability +13.3 pts (now 75%) (top driver: UL has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 0:33: Terrance Broadway run for 9 yds for a TD, (Hunter Stover KICK) — UL win probability +12.3 pts (now 89%) (top driver: UL has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TROY made the numbers' call on 6 of 6UL made the numbers' call on 2 of 3
  1. Q1 8:01TROY 4th & 1 at UL 2, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 29.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    29.2%
    60% to convert
    Field goal
    28.7%−0.5
    94% to make
    Punt
    27.4%−1.9
    average punt
  2. Q2 13:56UL 4th & 7 at UL 47, down 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 63.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.3%−0.2
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    63.5%
    average punt
  3. Q2 8:51TROY 4th & 23 at UL 35, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 38.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.9%−1.3
    7% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    39.2%
    45% to make
    Punt
    38.7%−0.5
    average punt
  4. Q2 3:41TROY 4th & 7 at UL 37, down 5
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 33.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    33.5%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    32.8%−0.6
    40% to make
    Punt
    32.2%−1.2
    average punt
  5. Q3 10:00TROY 4th & 22 at UL 43, down 5
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.2%−3.1
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    30.9%−1.3
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    32.2%
    average punt
  6. Q4 15:00TROY 4th & 9 at TROY 26, down 12
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.9%−1.2
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    17.1%
    average punt
  7. Q4 14:47UL 4th & 5 at TROY 38, up 12
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.5 ptsPunted · 87.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.6%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    86.2%−1.3
    38% to make
    PuntTheir call
    86.1%−1.5
    average punt
  8. Q4 12:39TROY 4th & 8 at TROY 33, down 12
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 14.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.0%−1.0
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    15.1%
    average punt
  9. Q4 9:11UL 4th & 6 at TROY 33, up 12
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 90.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    90.6%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    90.0%−0.5
    49% to make
    Punt
    89.1%−1.4
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TROY made the numbers' call on 3 of 3UL made the numbers' call on 5 of 6
  1. Q1 8:01UL Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    70.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    70.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 13:56TROY Touchdown, up 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    37.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    37.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 5:34UL Touchdown, up 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    67.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    67.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 2:59TROY Touchdown, up 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    44.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    44.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 2:49UL Touchdown, up 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    66.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    66.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 1:01TROY Touchdown, up 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    46.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    46.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 10:00UL Touchdown, up 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    65.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    65.7%−0.2
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 0:33UL Touchdown, up 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    83.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    83.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 3:48UL Touchdown, up 18 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.9%−0.3
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.2%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
TROYDrive 1FUMBLE
7 plays · 53 yds · 0:0022% → 22%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
22.1%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Chandler Worthy for 13 yds to the Troy 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+7
22.1%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Teddy Ruben for 7 yds to the Troy 45Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 3
OWN 45
+29
22.1%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Teddy Ruben for 29 yds to the LaLaf 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+3
22.1%
Brandon Silvers run for 3 yds to the LaLaf 23Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 23
+3
22.1%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to K.D. Edenfield for 3 yds to the LaLaf 20Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 4
OPP 20
+3
22.1%
Khary Franklin run for 3 yds to the LaLaf 22 Khary Franklin fumbled, forced by Troy McCollum, recovered by LaLaf Jake MolbertSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 2TD
13 plays · 78 yds · 4:4177% → 77%
Q1 12:42
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
23.2%
Terrance Broadway pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:42
2ND & 10
OWN 22
+5
23.2%
Elijah McGuire run for 5 yds to the LaLaf 27Similar
Q1 12:42
3RD & 5
OWN 27
+5
23.3%
Terrance Broadway pass complete to James Butler for 5 yds to the LaLaf 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:42
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+10
23.2%
Terrance Broadway run for 10 yds to the LaLaf 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:42
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
23.1%
Terrance Broadway pass complete to Al Riles for no gain to the LaLaf 42Similar
Q1 12:42
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+12
23.1%
Terrance Broadway pass complete to Gabe Fuselier for 12 yds to the Troy 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:42
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+13
23.0%
Alonzo Harris run for 13 yds to the Troy 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:42
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+8
23.0%
Terrance Broadway run for 8 yds to the Troy 25Similar
Q1 12:42
2ND & 2
OPP 25
0
23.0%
Terrance Broadway pass incomplete to Elijah McGuire, broken up by Mitchell RolandSimilar
Q1 12:42
3RD & 2
OPP 25
+8
23.1%
Terrance Broadway run for 8 yds to the Troy 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:42
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+4
23.0%
Elijah McGuire run for 4 yds to the Troy 13Similar
Q1 12:42
2ND & 6
OPP 13
+5
23.0%
Terrance Broadway run for 5 yds to the Troy 8Similar
Q1 8:01
3RD & 1
OPP 8
+8
23.0%
Elijah McGuire run for 8 yds for a TD, (Hunter Stover KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 3DOWNS
16 plays · 72 yds · 0:0024% → 24%
Q1 8:01
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+21
23.6%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Chandler Worthy for 21 yds to the Troy 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:01
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+4
24.0%
Jordan Chunn run for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 8:01
2ND & 6
50
+2
24.2%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Chandler Worthy for 2 yds to the LaLaf 48Similar
Q1 8:01
3RD & 4
OPP 48
+4
24.1%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to B.J. Chitty for 4 yds to the LaLaf 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:01
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+5
24.2%
Jordan Chunn run for 5 yds to the LaLaf 39Similar
Q1 8:01
2ND & 5
OPP 39
+2
24.2%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to K.D. Edenfield for 2 yds K.D. Edenfield fumbled, forced by Tracy Walker,Similar
Q1 8:01
3RD & 7
OPP 41
+3
24.1%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Chandler Worthy for 3 yds to the LaLaf 38Similar
Q1 8:01
4TH & 4
OPP 38
+5
23.9%
UL LAFAYETTE Penalty, offside defense (Tracy Walker) to the LaLaf 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:01
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+2
24.5%
Jordan Chunn run for 2 yds to the LaLaf 31Similar
Q1 8:01
2ND & 8
OPP 31
+20
24.5%
Jordan Chunn run for 9 yds to the LaLaf 22 for a 1ST down UL LAFAYETTE Penalty, personal foul (Justin Hamilton) to the LaLaf 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:01
1ST & 10
OPP 11
-5
24.5%
TROY Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the LaLaf 16Similar
Q1 8:01
1ST & 15
OPP 16
+6
24.4%
Brandon Burks run for 6 yds to the LaLaf 10Similar
Q1 8:01
2ND & 9
OPP 10
+2
24.5%
Brandon Burks run for 2 yds to the LaLaf 8Similar
Q1 8:01
3RD & 7
OPP 8
+6
24.2%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Josh Anderson for 6 yds to the LaLaf 2Similar
Q1 8:01
4TH & 1
OPP 2
-1
24.0%
Brandon Silvers run for a loss of 1 yard to the LaLaf 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 4SF
1 play · -3 yds · 0:0073% → 73%
Q1 0:50
1ST & 10
OWN 3
0
27.2%
Team SafetySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 5TD
8 plays · 71 yds · 1:5427% → 34%
Q1 0:50
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+1
26.8%
Brandon Burks run for 1 yd to the Troy 30Similar
Q1 0:50
2ND & 9
OWN 30
0
26.8%
Brandon Silvers pass incomplete to Teddy RubenSimilar
Q1 0:50
3RD & 9
OWN 30
+5
26.2%
UL LAFAYETTE Penalty, offside defense (Jake Molbert) to the Troy 35Similar
Q1 0:50
3RD & 4
OWN 35
+4
26.6%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Chandler Worthy for 4 yds to the Troy 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+30
27.4%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Chandler Worthy for 30 yds to the LaLaf 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+3
29.1%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to B.J. Chitty for 3 yds to the LaLaf 28Similar
Q2 13:56
2ND & 7
OPP 28
+28
33.5%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Bryan Holmes for 28 yds for a TD, (Ryan Kay KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:0070% → 68%
Q2 13:56
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
30.4%
Terrance Broadway pass incomplete to Al RilesSimilar
Q2 13:56
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+3
30.7%
Elijah McGuire run for 3 yds to the LaLaf 47Similar
Q2 13:56
3RD & 7
OWN 47
0
30.6%
Terrance Broadway pass incomplete to Elijah McGuireSimilar
Q2 13:56
4TH & 7
OWN 47
0
31.6%
Daniel Cadona punt for 29 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Troy 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 7MISSED FG
12 plays · 41 yds · 4:0332% → 35%
Q2 12:54
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+9
32.4%
Khary Franklin run for 9 yds to the Troy 33Similar
Q2 12:54
2ND & 1
OWN 33
-4
33.2%
Khary Franklin run for a loss of 4 yards to the Troy 29Similar
Q2 12:54
3RD & 5
OWN 29
+8
31.9%
Brandon Silvers run for 8 yds to the Troy 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:54
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+15
32.8%
Khary Franklin run for 15 yds to the LaLaf 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:18
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-1
36.0%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Chandler Worthy for a loss of 1 yard to the LaLaf 49Similar
Q2 11:18
2ND & 11
OPP 49
+27
35.3%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Jalen Harris for 27 yds to the LaLaf 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:18
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
36.6%
Jordan Chunn run for no gain to the LaLaf 22Similar
Q2 11:18
2ND & 10
OPP 22
+2
36.5%
Jordan Chunn run for 2 yds to the LaLaf 20Similar
Q2 11:18
3RD & 8
OPP 20
0
36.0%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Chandler Worthy for no gain to the LaLaf 20Similar
Q2 11:18
4TH & 8
OPP 20
-15
34.8%
TROY Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (-15 Yards) to the LaLaf 35Similar
Q2 8:51
4TH & 23
OPP 35
+52
35.3%
Ryan Kay 52 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 8TD
8 plays · 65 yds · 3:1766% → 73%
Q2 8:51
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+21
34.5%
Terrance Broadway pass complete to Al Riles for 21 yds to the Troy 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:51
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+12
32.9%
Elijah McGuire run for 12 yds to the Troy 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:51
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+3
32.3%
Terrance Broadway pass complete to Gabe Fuselier for 3 yds to the Troy 29Similar
Q2 8:51
2ND & 7
OPP 29
-1
32.2%
Terrance Broadway pass complete to Al Riles for a loss of 1 yard to the Troy 30Similar
Q2 8:51
3RD & 8
OPP 30
+18
33.1%
Terrance Broadway pass complete to Gabe Fuselier for 18 yds to the Troy 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:51
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+1
32.2%
Alonzo Harris run for 1 yd to the Troy 11Similar
Q2 8:51
2ND & 9
OPP 11
+9
32.2%
Terrance Broadway run for 9 yds to the Troy 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:34
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
27.0%
Alonzo Harris run for 2 yds for a TD, (Hunter Stover KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 9TD
10 plays · 40 yds · 2:3532% → 46%
Q2 5:34
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+8
31.6%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Jarvis Bentley for 8 yds to the LaLaf 32Similar
Q2 5:34
2ND & 2
OPP 32
+1
33.0%
Jordan Chunn run for 1 yd to the LaLaf 31Similar
Q2 5:34
3RD & 1
OPP 31
-1
31.6%
Jordan Chunn run for a loss of 1 yard to the LaLaf 32Similar
Q2 3:41
4TH & 2
OPP 32
-5
31.9%
TROY Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the LaLaf 37Similar
Q2 3:41
4TH & 7
OPP 37
+12
30.3%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Teddy Ruben for 12 yds to the LaLaf 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:41
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+8
33.5%
Jordan Chunn run for 8 yds to the LaLaf 17Similar
Q2 2:59
2ND & 2
OPP 17
+17
46.0%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Teddy Ruben for 17 yds for a TD, (Ryan Kay KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 10TD
2 plays · 75 yds · 0:0071% → 71%
Q2 2:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+75
28.8%
Elijah McGuire run for 75 yds for a TD, (Hunter Stover KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 11TD
9 plays · 71 yds · 1:4830% → 47%
Q2 2:49
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+7
29.5%
Brandon Burks run for 7 yds to the Troy 36Similar
Q2 2:49
2ND & 3
OWN 36
+6
31.1%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Jarvis Bentley for 6 yds to the Troy 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:49
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+5
30.8%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Brandon Burks for 5 yds to the Troy 47Similar
Q2 2:49
2ND & 5
OWN 47
+27
31.6%
Brandon Burks run for 27 yds to the LaLaf 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:49
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+10
33.7%
Silvers, B. middle pass incomplete to Holmes, Bryan, PENALTY ULL holding (Patt,Trevence) 10 yards to the ULL16, 1ST DOWN TROY, NO PLAY. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:49
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+11
33.7%
Brandon Silvers run for 11 yds to the LaLaf 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:49
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
0
33.7%
Brandon Silvers pass incomplete to Jarvis BentleySimilar
Q2 1:01
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
47.3%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to B.J. Chitty for 5 yds for a TD, (Ryan Kay KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 12END OF HALF
3 plays · 8 yds · 0:0058% → 58%
Q2 1:01
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
41.9%
Elijah McGuire run for 3 yds to the LaLaf 28Similar
Q2 1:01
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+5
41.6%
Alonzo Harris run for 5 yds to the LaLaf 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 13TD
11 plays · 74 yds · 5:0059% → 75%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+13
41.1%
Elijah McGuire run for 13 yds to the LaLaf 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+8
39.5%
Terrance Broadway run for 8 yds to the LaLaf 47Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 2
OWN 47
+6
38.1%
Terrance Broadway pass complete to Gabe Fuselier for 6 yds to the Troy 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+4
38.1%
Alonzo Harris run for 4 yds to the Troy 43Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 43
-1
38.0%
Terrance Broadway run for a loss of 1 yard to the Troy 44Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 7
OPP 44
+26
38.5%
Terrance Broadway pass complete to C.J. Bates for 26 yds to the Troy 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+6
36.8%
Effrem Reed run for 6 yds to the Troy 12Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 4
OPP 12
+2
36.8%
Terrance Broadway run for 2 yds to the Troy 10Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 2
OPP 10
+9
38.0%
Alonzo Harris run for 9 yds to the Troy 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
24.7%
Alonzo Harris run for 1 yd for a TD, (Hunter Stover KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 14PUNT
8 plays · 13 yds · 0:0032% → 28%
Q3 10:00
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+8
31.7%
Khary Franklin run for 8 yds to the LaLaf 48Similar
Q3 10:00
2ND & 2
OPP 48
+3
32.9%
Khary Franklin run for 3 yds to the LaLaf 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:00
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+14
32.8%
Khary Franklin run for 14 yds to the LaLaf 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:00
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+2
34.2%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Teddy Ruben for 2 yds to the LaLaf 29Similar
Q3 10:00
2ND & 8
OPP 29
-9
34.2%
Brandon Silvers sacked by Taboris Lee for a loss of 9 yards to the LaLaf 38Similar
Q3 10:00
3RD & 17
OPP 38
-5
30.2%
Jordan Chunn run for a loss of 5 yards to the LaLaf 43Similar
Q3 10:00
4TH & 22
OPP 43
0
28.2%
Ryan Kay punt for 30 yds , Elijah McGuire returns for no gain to the LaLaf 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 15TD
13 plays · 87 yds · 6:2572% → 89%
Q3 6:58
1ST & 10
OWN 13
0
28.4%
Elijah McGuire run for no gain to the LaLaf 13Similar
Q3 6:58
2ND & 10
OWN 13
+13
28.7%
Terrance Broadway run for 13 yds to the LaLaf 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:58
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+6
28.2%
Alonzo Harris run for 6 yds to the LaLaf 32Similar
Q3 6:58
2ND & 4
OWN 32
+3
27.0%
Alonzo Harris run for 3 yds to the LaLaf 35Similar
Q3 6:58
3RD & 1
OWN 35
+11
27.3%
Alonzo Harris run for 11 yds to the LaLaf 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:58
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+6
26.1%
Terrance Broadway pass complete to Devin Scott for 6 yds to the Troy 48Similar
Q3 6:58
2ND & 4
OPP 48
+5
25.4%
Alonzo Harris run for 5 yds to the Troy 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:58
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+15
25.6%
Elijah McGuire run for 15 yds to the Troy 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:58
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+2
24.4%
Alonzo Harris run for 2 yds to the Troy 26Similar
Q3 6:58
2ND & 8
OPP 26
+13
24.4%
Terrance Broadway pass complete to Larry Pettis for 13 yds to the Troy 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:11
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+4
23.7%
Elijah McGuire run for 4 yds to the Troy 9Similar
Q3 0:33
2ND & 6
OPP 9
+9
11.5%
Terrance Broadway run for 9 yds for a TD, (Hunter Stover KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:3317% → 15%
Q3 0:33
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
16.5%
Brandon Silvers pass incomplete to Bryan HolmesSimilar
Q3 0:33
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+1
16.2%
Jordan Chunn run for 1 yd to the Troy 26Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 9
OWN 26
0
15.0%
Brandon Silvers pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 9
OWN 26
+1
15.0%
Ryan Kay punt for 32 yds , Elijah McGuire returns for 1 yd to the LaLaf 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 17PUNT
5 plays · 19 yds · 0:0089% → 88%
Q4 14:47
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+14
11.5%
Terrance Broadway pass complete to James Butler for 14 yds to the Troy 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:47
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
11.1%
Terrance Broadway pass incomplete to James ButlerSimilar
Q4 14:47
2ND & 10
OPP 43
+5
11.2%
Terrance Broadway pass complete to Gabe Fuselier for 5 yds to the Troy 38Similar
Q4 14:47
3RD & 5
OPP 38
0
11.3%
Terrance Broadway run for no gain to the Troy 38Similar
Q4 14:47
4TH & 5
OPP 38
0
12.3%
Daniel Cadona punt for 38 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 18PUNT
5 plays · 13 yds · 0:0014% → 14%
Q4 12:39
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+11
14.2%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Brandon Burks for 11 yds to the Troy 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:39
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+7
14.8%
Brandon Burks run for 7 yds to the Troy 38Similar
Q4 12:39
2ND & 3
OWN 38
+2
15.7%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Brandon Burks for 2 yds to the Troy 40Similar
Q4 12:39
3RD & 1
OWN 40
-7
15.1%
Chandler Worthy run for a loss of 7 yards to the Troy 33Similar
Q4 12:39
4TH & 8
OWN 33
0
13.7%
Ryan Kay punt for 32 yds, downed at the LaLaf 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 19TD
13 plays · 65 yds · 6:3691% → 99%
Q4 10:24
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
8.8%
Elijah McGuire run for 3 yds to the LaLaf 38Similar
Q4 10:24
2ND & 7
OWN 38
+4
8.2%
Terrance Broadway run for 4 yds to the LaLaf 42Similar
Q4 9:11
3RD & 3
OWN 42
+21
6.2%
Elijah McGuire run for 21 yds to the Troy 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:11
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+6
5.7%
Alonzo Harris run for 6 yds to the Troy 31Similar
Q4 9:11
2ND & 4
OPP 31
+3
5.7%
Elijah McGuire run for 3 yds to the Troy 28Similar
Q4 9:11
3RD & 1
OPP 28
-5
5.8%
Alonzo Harris run for a loss of 5 yards to the Troy 33Similar
Q4 9:11
4TH & 6
OPP 33
+14
6.7%
Terrance Broadway pass complete to Larry Pettis for 14 yds to the Troy 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:11
1ST & 10
OPP 19
-10
5.7%
Reed,Effrem rush left for loss of 2 yards to the TROY21 (Reddick, Darrin), PENALTY ULL holding (Williams,D.) 10 yards to the TROY29, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 9:11
1ST & 20
OPP 29
+6
5.8%
Terrance Broadway run for 6 yds to the Troy 23Similar
Q4 9:11
2ND & 14
OPP 23
+7
5.8%
Alonzo Harris run for 7 yds to the Troy 16Similar
Q4 9:11
3RD & 7
OPP 16
+15
5.8%
Alonzo Harris run for 15 yds to the Troy 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:48
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
0.6%
Alonzo Harris run for 1 yd for a TD, (Hunter Stover KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 20FUMBLE
7 plays · 25 yds · 0:002% → 3%
Q4 3:48
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
2.1%
Brandon Silvers pass incomplete to K.D. Edenfield, broken up by Sean ThomasSimilar
Q4 3:48
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+13
2.1%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Bryan Holmes for 13 yds to the Troy 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:48
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+7
2.2%
Brandon Silvers run for 7 yds to the LaLaf 45Similar
Q4 3:48
2ND & 3
OPP 45
+8
2.4%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to B.J. Chitty for 8 yds to the LaLaf 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:48
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+6
2.3%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Kinderick Dent for 6 yds to the LaLaf 31Similar
Q4 3:48
2ND & 4
OPP 31
-9
2.7%
Brandon Silvers sacked by Darzil Washington for a loss of 9 yards to the LaLaf 40 Brandon Silvers fumbled, recovered by LaLaf Kevin Fouquier , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 21END OF GAME
3 plays · 5 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 1:50
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+2
0.5%
Effrem Reed run for 2 yds to the LaLaf 42Similar
Q4 1:50
2ND & 8
OWN 42
+5
0.6%
Effrem Reed run for 5 yds to the LaLaf 47Similar
Q4 1:50
3RD & 3
OWN 47
-2
0.5%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the LaLaf 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 2:49
Elijah McGuire run for 75 yds for a TD, (Hunter Stover KICK)
-14.7
TD · Q2 1:01
Brandon Silvers pass complete to B.J. Chitty for 5 yds for a TD, (Ryan Kay KICK)
+13.6
TD · Q3 10:00
Alonzo Harris run for 1 yd for a TD, (Hunter Stover KICK)
-13.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com