USM
Southern Miss 22 at Louisiana 10
UL2025 · Week 8 · Oct 18, 2025 · Cajun Field
Win probability · UL
modelUL aheadUSM aheadconfidence bandkey play
What moved it - hover a play below
Q4 0:00 · (00:27) Kneel down by Southern Miss. at UL22 for loss of 1 yard.
01
USM has the ball
−28
02
Blowout context favors the offense
−13
03
USM leading by 12
−6
04
Defense has -3 timeouts left
−3
Play by play - hover to pin the curve
Q1 15:00
Logan Klotz kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
0.0
Q1 14:47
Braylon Braxton pass complete to Micah Davis for 1 yd to the USM 26
-3.2
Q1 14:30
Jeffery Pittman run for 9 yds to the USM 35 for a 1ST down
-0.6
Q1 14:11
Jeffery Pittman run for 3 yds to the USM 38
0.0
Q1 13:48
Jeffery Pittman run for 8 yds to the USM 46 for a 1ST down
-1.1
Q1 13:15
Braylon Braxton run for 5 yds to the UL 49
-1.1
Q1 12:53
Matt Jones run for 8 yds to the UL 41 for a 1ST down
-0.3
Q1 12:37
Matt Jones run for 3 yds to the UL 38
-0.1
Q1 12:12
Braylon Braxton pass complete to Carl Chester for 5 yds to the UL 33
0.0
Q1 11:49
Matt Jones run for 1 yd to the UL 32
0.0
Q1 11:29
PENALTY USM False Start (Roman,Broderick) 5 yards from UL32 to UL37. NO PLAY.
+0.8
Q1 11:22
Jack Murley punt for 22 yds
0.0
Q1 11:14
Zylan Perry run for a loss of 1 yard to the UL 14
+6.0
Q1 10:45
Zylan Perry run for 10 yds to the UL 24
0.0
Q1 10:03
Zylan Perry run for 2 yds to the UL 26 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q1 9:33
Zylan Perry run for 4 yds to the UL 30
0.0
Q1 8:50
Lunch Winfield pass complete to Robert Williams for 5 yds to the UL 35
+0.4
Q1 8:20
Bill Davis run for 2 yds to the UL 37 for a 1ST down
+0.4
Q1 7:40
Lunch Winfield run for 6 yds to the UL 43
+0.2
Q1 7:05
Bill Davis run for 3 yds to the UL 46
+0.9
Q1 6:30
Bill Davis run for 13 yds to the USM 41 for a 1ST down
+0.1
Q1 5:49
Lunch Winfield pass complete to Caden Jensen for 18 yds to the USM 23 for a 1ST down
+1.6
Q1 5:33
Bill Davis run for 8 yds to the USM 15
0.0
Q1 5:14
Timeout Louisiana, clock 05:14
+0.9
Q1 5:03
Lunch Winfield run for 3 yds to the USM 12 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q1 4:27
Lunch Winfield pass incomplete to Jaydon Johnson
+0.3
Q1 4:18
Zylan Perry run for 1 yd to the USM 11
0.0
Q1 3:35
Lunch Winfield pass complete to Caden Jensen for 8 yds to the USM 3
-0.2
Q1 3:26
Timeout Louisiana, clock 03:26
-13.5
Q1 3:21
Lunch Winfield run for 3 yds for a TD (Tony Sterner KICK)
+12.9
Q1 3:21
Logan Klotz kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
-0.2
Q1 3:03
Jeffery Pittman run for 2 yds to the USM 27
+3.1
Q1 2:53
Braylon Braxton pass incomplete to Bralon Brown
0.0
Q1 2:43
Jeffery Pittman run for 3 yds to the USM 30
0.0
Q1 2:14
Reed Harradine punt for 42 yds
0.0
Q1 2:09
Lunch Winfield pass incomplete to Dale Martin
-3.1
Q1 1:58
Zylan Perry run for 3 yds to the UL 31
0.0
Q1 1:25
Lunch Winfield pass incomplete to Charles Robertson
0.0
Q1 1:11
Nathan Torney punt for 52 yds , Elijah Metcalf returns for 11 yds to the USM 28
-0.7
Q1 1:00
Robert Briggs run for 11 yds to the USM 39 for a 1ST down
+3.8
Q1 0:34
Robert Briggs run for 3 yds to the USM 42
-0.4
Q1 0:05
Braylon Braxton pass complete to Kyirin Heath for 5 yds to the USM 47
-0.3
Q1 0:00
Robert Briggs run for 3 yds to the USM 47 Robert Briggs fumbled, recovered by UL Cameron Whitfield
-0.5
Q2 14:49
Lunch Winfield run for 4 yds to the USM 43
+0.1
Q2 14:13
Lunch Winfield pass complete to Caden Jensen for 6 yds to the USM 37 for a 1ST down
+5.1
Q2 13:40
Bill Davis run for 4 yds to the USM 33
+0.1
Q2 12:57
Lunch Winfield pass complete to Trenton Chaney for 1 yd to the USM 32
0.0
Q2 12:24
Lunch Winfield run for 1 yd to the USM 31
-0.2
Q2 12:02
Timeout Louisiana, clock 12:02
-9.9
Q2 11:56
Lunch Winfield pass incomplete to Charles Robertson
0.0
Q3 14:56
Reed Harradine kickoff for 62 yds , Robert Williams return for 13 yds to the UL 16
-21.1
Q3 14:56
Zylan Perry run for 6 yds to the UL 22
+2.7
Q3 14:56
Zylan Perry run for 12 yds to the UL 34 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q3 14:56
Lunch Winfield run for 5 yds to the UL 39
0.0
Q3 14:56
Lunch Winfield run for 26 yds to the USM 35 for a 1ST down
+0.4
Q3 14:56
Lunch Winfield run for 7 yds to the USM 28
+2.8
Q3 14:56
Bill Davis run for 14 yds to the USM 14 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q3 11:39
Timeout Louisiana, clock 11:39
+0.6
Q3 11:29
Lunch Winfield run for 5 yds to the USM 9
0.0
Q3 11:16
(11:16) No Huddle-Shotgun Winfield,Lunch rush left for 0 yards to the USM09 (Tapp,J'Mond) PENALTY UL Holding (Williams,Bryant) 10 yards from USM09 to USM19. NO PLAY.
0.0
Q3 10:48
Bill Davis run for a loss of 1 yard to the USM 20
0.0
Q3 10:03
Lunch Winfield pass complete to Trenton Chaney for 13 yds to the USM 7
+8.2
Q3 9:35
Tony Sterner 24 yd FG GOOD
+10.4
Q3 9:27
Logan Klotz kickoff for 63 yds , Micah Davis return for 24 yds to the USM 26
-2.2
Q3 9:07
Braylon Braxton pass complete to Kadinn Morris for 28 yds to the UL 46 for a 1ST down
-7.6
Q3 8:44
Jeffery Pittman run for 2 yds to the UL 44
-1.7
Q3 8:25
Braylon Braxton pass incomplete to Micah Davis
0.0
Q3 8:02
Braylon Braxton pass complete to Matt Jones for 1 yd to the UL 43
+0.3
Q3 7:45
Jack Murley punt for 42 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the UL 1
-0.6
Q3 7:26
Zylan Perry run for 2 yds to the UL 3
+10.0
Q3 7:02
Southern Miss Penalty, UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct (J'Mond Tapp) to the UL 19 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q3 6:31
Zylan Perry run for 16 yds to the UL 35 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q3 5:46
Zylan Perry run for 2 yds to the UL 37
0.0
Q3 5:29
Steven Blanco run for no gain to the UL 37
0.0
Q3 4:50
Lunch Winfield pass incomplete to Trenton Chaney
0.0
Q3 4:38
Nathan Torney punt for 57 yds
0.0
Q3 4:31
(04:31) No Huddle-Shotgun Pittman,Jeffery rush right for 4 yards gain to the USM10 (Williams,Terrence; Clark,Jalen) PENALTY USM Holding (Heath,Kyirin) 3 yards from USM06 to USM03. NO PLAY.
-8.9
Q3 4:14
Jeffery Pittman run for a loss of 1 yard to the USM 2
+0.2
Q3 3:54
Braylon Braxton pass incomplete to Micah Davis
0.0
Q3 3:40
Braylon Braxton pass complete to Micah Davis for 98 yds for a TD (Creighton Wilbanks KICK)
-28.1
Q3 3:40
PENALTY UL Sideline Inteference 15 yards from USM35 to USM50. NO PLAY.
+28.1
Q3 3:40
Reed Harradine kickoff for 50 yds for a touchback
-28.8
Q3 3:30
Lunch Winfield run for 6 yds to the UL 31
-0.8
Q3 3:06
Bill Davis run for 3 yds to the UL 34
-0.6
Q3 2:44
Lunch Winfield run for 12 yds to the UL 46 for a 1ST down
-0.3
Q3 2:14
Bill Davis run for a loss of 1 yard to the UL 45
+0.1
Q3 1:28
Lunch Winfield pass complete to Landon Baptiste for 5 yds to the 50 yard line
-1.6
Q3 1:03
PENALTY UL False Start 5 yards from UL50 to UL45. NO PLAY.
0.0
Q3 0:36
Lunch Winfield pass complete to Charles Robertson for 27 yds to the USM 28 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q3 0:00
Bill Davis run for 12 yds to the USM 16 for a 1ST down
+1.7
Q4 14:49
Bill Davis run for no gain to the USM 16
-0.3
Q4 14:01
Lunch Winfield pass complete to Trey Miller for 3 yds to the USM 13
0.0
Q4 13:32
(13:32) No Huddle-Shotgun Winfield,Lunch pass complete short right to Miller,Trey caught at USM18, for 0 yards to the USM13 (Montgomery,Michael) PENALTY UL Holding (Miller,Trey) 10 yards from USM13 to USM23. NO PLAY.
0.0
Q4 12:18
Lunch Winfield run for 20 yds to the USM 3 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q4 12:18
Lunch Winfield run for 2 yds to the USM 1 Lunch Winfield fumbled, recovered by USM Jabari Ishmael
0.0
Q4 12:08
Braylon Braxton run for 1 yd to the USM 2
-1.6
Q4 11:39
Jeffery Pittman run for 1 yd to the USM 3
-0.1
Q4 10:56
Jeffery Pittman run for 6 yds to the USM 9
0.0
Q4 10:23
(10:23) Harradine,Reed punt 42 yards to the UL49 return for loss of 1 yard to the UL48 (Harper,Joseph) PENALTY UL Running Into The Kicker (Jones,Lester) 5 yards from USM09 to USM14, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.
+0.2
Q4 10:12
Jeffery Pittman run for a loss of 1 yard to the USM 13
0.0
Q4 9:46
Jeffery Pittman run for 1 yd to the USM 14
-0.5
Q4 9:05
Braylon Braxton pass complete to Bralon Brown for 9 yds to the USM 23
-0.1
Q4 8:27
PENALTY USM False Start (Nunnery,Greg) 5 yards from USM23 to USM18. NO PLAY.
+0.1
Q4 8:16
Reed Harradine punt for 60 yds , Robert Williams returns for no gain to the UL 22
0.0
Q4 8:03
Lunch Winfield run for a loss of 1 yard to the UL 21
-2.1
Q4 7:21
Lunch Winfield pass complete to Dale Martin for 13 yds to the UL 34 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q4 6:58
Lunch Winfield run for no gain to the UL 34
0.0
Q4 6:18
Lunch Winfield pass complete to Caden Jensen for 5 yds to the UL 39
0.0
Q4 6:12
PENALTY UL False Start (Chaney,Trenton) 5 yards from UL39 to UL34. NO PLAY.
+0.2
Q4 5:37
Lunch Winfield pass complete to Caden Jensen for 8 yds to the UL 42
-0.8
Q4 5:20
Lunch Winfield pass incomplete to Rahji Dennis
-1.2
Q4 5:13
Braylon Braxton run for 3 yds to the UL 39
+1.5
Q4 5:13
Timeout Louisiana, clock 05:13
-0.7
Q4 5:07
Matt Jones run for 3 yds to the UL 36
0.0
Q4 5:07
Timeout Louisiana, clock 05:07
-4.8
Q4 4:58
Braylon Braxton run for a loss of 2 yards to the UL 38
-0.2
Q4 4:58
Timeout Louisiana, clock 04:58
-0.7
Q4 4:49
Jack Murley punt for 35 yds
0.0
Q4 4:37
Lunch Winfield run for 8 yds to the UL 11
-3.8
Q4 4:17
Lunch Winfield sacked by Garrick Ponder for a loss of 7 yards to the UL 4
-0.2
Q4 3:54
Lunch Winfield pass incomplete to Dale Martin
0.0
Q4 3:43
L. Winfield sacked by C. Jones for -8 yds for a SAFETY,L. Winfield fumbled, recovered by UL B. Davis,for a SAFETY
0.0
Q4 3:43
Timeout Louisiana, clock 03:43
+4.4
Q4 3:42
Tony Sterner kickoff for 14 yds
-4.4
Q4 3:33
Jeffery Pittman run for 1 yd to the UL 33
+3.8
Q4 2:45
Jeffery Pittman run for 3 yds to the UL 30
0.0
Q4 2:04
Jeffery Pittman run for 4 yds to the UL 26
0.0
Q4 2:00
Timeout Louisiana, clock 02:00
0.0
Q4 1:53
Jeffery Pittman run for 7 yds to the UL 19 for a 1ST down
-0.3
Q4 1:20
(01:27) Kneel down by Southern Miss. at UL20 for loss of 1 yard.
+0.8
Q4 0:40
(00:44) Kneel down by Southern Miss. at UL21 for loss of 1 yard.
0.0
Q4 0:00
(00:27) Kneel down by Southern Miss. at UL22 for loss of 1 yard.
0.0
Biggest swings
KEY PLAY · Q3 3:40
Reed Harradine kickoff for 50 yds for a touchback
-28.8
TD · Q3 3:40
Braylon Braxton pass complete to Micah Davis for 98 yds for a TD (Creighton Wilbanks KICK)
-28.1
KEY PLAY · Q3 3:40
PENALTY UL Sideline Inteference 15 yards from USM35 to USM50. NO PLAY.
+28.1