Louisiana

Profile vs. FBS, 2019

Farther out is better on every spoke. Dashed ring: the FBS median.

• EPA per play

  Expected points added on an average snap: how much each play moved the scoring odds.
  Offense+0.2695th
  Defense+0.0957th
• Success rate

  Share of snaps that stayed on schedule: half the yards needed on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of them on 3rd or 4th.
  Offense51.9%95th
  Defense45.1%33rd
• Explosiveness

  Average EPA on the successful snaps: how big the good plays were.
  Offense+1.1630th
  Defense+1.0794th
• Rushing EPA

  EPA per designed run.
  Offense+0.2396th
  Defense+0.1810th
• Passing EPA

  EPA per pass play.
  Offense+0.3390th
  Defense−0.0194th
• Standard downs

  Success rate on downs where either a run or a pass makes sense, like 1st and 10 or 3rd and 2.
  Offense55.4%95th
  Defense50.2%27th
• Passing downs

  Success rate on downs that all but force a pass, like 2nd and 8 or longer, or 3rd and 5 or longer.
  Offense42.1%95th
  Defense33.2%51st
• Line yards

  Rushing yards per carry credited to the offensive line, weighting the first few yards most.
  Offense3.4898th
  Defense3.315th
• Stuff rate

  Share of runs stopped at or behind the line of scrimmage.
  Offense13.3%98th
  Defense12.9%2nd
• Havoc

  Share of snaps with a tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception or pass breakup.
  Offense13.0%98th
  Defense17.1%17th

Percentiles among the 130 FBS teams this season, where higher is better for the offense and the defense alike (a defense's numbers are what it allowed). The line in each bar is the FBS median. Garbage time excluded. Source: CollegeFootballData.

Drives vs. expectation, 2019

Every snap has an expected-points value: what a drive from that spot, down and distance is worth on average. A drive over expected beat its starting spot; defense counts what Louisiana allowed, so lower is better. The adjusted number fits every team against the opponents it actually played, so it leans toward average early in a season. Ranks are among FBS teams.

Game by game

1. L
   MSST
2. W
   LIB
3. W
   TXSO
4. W
   OHIO
5. W
   GASO
6. L
   APP
7. W
   ARST
8. W
   TXST
9. W
   CCU
10. W
    USA
11. W
    TROY
12. W
    ULM
13. L
    APP
14. W
    M-OH

Bars above the line: better than expected for Louisiana.

Players, 2019

1. Levi LewisQB373 plays · +0.266 pts/play · 22nd of 228 QBs
   1.86WAR1.26 to 2.58
2. Elijah MitchellRB187 plays · +0.230 pts/play · 14th of 349 RBs
   0.81WAR0.61 to 0.99
3. Raymond CalaisRB113 plays · +0.224 pts/play · 70th of 349 RBs
   0.47WAR0.36 to 0.60
4. Trey RagasRB114 plays · +0.187 pts/play · 98th of 349 RBs
   0.40WAR0.30 to 0.52
5. Ja'Marcus BradleyWR76 plays · +0.208 pts/play · 19th of 439 WRs
   0.30WAR0.19 to 0.43
6. Stevie ArtiguePK17 plays · +0.364 pts/play · 61st of 114 kickers
   0.12WAR0.07 to 0.16
7. Rhys ByrnsP38 plays · +0.128 pts/play · 24th of 100 punters
   0.09WAR0.03 to 0.16
8. Jarrod JacksonWR30 plays · +0.162 pts/play · 231st of 439 WRs
   0.09WAR0.05 to 0.13

By position group, against FBS

Linemen and defenders are valued as units, in points per game against the median FBS unit, because play-by-play doesn't say who was on the field. Players are valued against a replacement-level backup, so the two aren't added together.

Wins above replacement credits each play's expected points to the players involved, adjusted for the opponent, and compares Louisiana's players with a typical backup; 53 points make a win. Only snaps while the game was in doubt count, so a starter on a team that blows opponents out plays fewer of them: read value per play beside WAR. The line under each player (or the range on a phone) is the 90% interval. Ranks are among FBS teams and players. How this works

What it had and what it did, 2019

• Roster talent

  247Sports' talent composite: the recruiting ratings of every player on the roster, transfers included.
  406406103rd of 130Roster talent: 406, 103rd of 130 in FBS
• Recruiting

  Average 247Sports class score over this season's class and the three before it.
  126126105th of 130Recruiting: 126, 105th of 130 in FBS
• Returning production

  Share of last season's production (expected points added) by players still on the roster.
  67%67%54th of 130Returning production: 67%, 54th of 130 in FBS
• SP+ rating

  The result: Bill Connelly's opponent-adjusted rating, points per game better than an average FBS team.
  +9.6+9.632nd of 130SP+ rating: +9.6, 32nd of 130 in FBS

Ranks and bars among the 130 FBS teams with a talent rating this season, best first; the line in each bar is the FBS median.

Talent conversion

Conversion by season

Fourth-down calls vs. the numbers, 2019

Each real fourth down is valued three ways (go for it, kick, punt) from the score, clock and field position before the snap, using league-wide odds rather than Louisiana's own. A call that differs gives up the gap to the best option; gaps under one point are close calls, and the 6 clear-cut ones account for 0.13 of the 0.19 expected wins. The model sees the situation, not the injury report, so a call it disagrees with can still be right. Ranks are among FBS teams; 1st gave up the least.

Costliest calls against the numbers

1. vs APPQ4 12:06 4th & 1 at UL 47, down 3Punted; the numbers favored going for it−5.1 pts
2. at USAQ3 2:44 4th & 2 at USA 2, down 1Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it−2.8 pts
3. at OHIOQ2 0:00 4th & 2 at OHIO 10, up 1Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it−1.3 pts
4. at M-OHQ4 9:45 4th & 2 at UL 36, up 7Punted; the numbers favored going for it−1.3 pts
5. at M-OHQ4 2:44 4th & 1 at UL 33, up 10Punted; the numbers favored going for it−1.2 pts
6. vs ULMQ2 2:24 4th & 1 at UL 34, tiedPunted; the numbers favored going for it−1.1 pts
7. vs ULMQ4 3:45 4th & 9 at ULM 42, down 2Went for it; the numbers favored a field goal (close call)−0.8 pts
8. vs APPQ3 10:18 4th & 4 at APP 25, tiedKicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.8 pts

Record vs. expectation, 2019

39th of 130 FBS teams at beating the model's pregame expectations

Expected wins adds up Louisiana's chance of winning each game as the model saw it at kickoff - a 70% favorite counts 0.7.

1. L

   MSST
2. W

   LIB
3. W

   TXSO
4. W

   OHIO
5. W

   GASO
6. L

   APP
7. W

   ARST
8. W

   TXST
9. W

   CCU
10. W

    USA
11. W

    TROY
12. W

    ULM
13. L

    APP
14. W

    M-OH

What moved it, 2019

Every game starts at Louisiana's pregame chance; everything after that is the field. The model's own breakdown of each game's final play splits the on-field part by what drove it, and the parts add up exactly. How it works →

• Scoreboard+1.77
• Possession & field position+0.02
• Clock+0.06
• Timeouts−0.02
• Less the pregame edge, counted before kickoff−0.31

Game by game

• MSSTL 28-38 vs MSST11% → 61%Before kickoff −39 · On the field +50: Scoreboard +1, Timeouts −1
• LIBW 35-14 vs LIB82% → 99%Before kickoff +32 · On the field +17: Scoreboard +22
• TXSOW 77-6 vs TXSO100% → 100%Before kickoff +50 · On the field 0: Scoreboard +1
• OHIOW 45-25 at OHIO48% → 99%Before kickoff −2 · On the field +52: Scoreboard +54, Clock +2
• GASOW 37-24 at GASO64% → 98%Before kickoff +14 · On the field +34: Scoreboard +42, Clock +2
• APPL 7-17 vs APP58% → 4%Before kickoff +8 · On the field −53: Scoreboard −52, Clock −4
• ARSTW 37-20 at ARST70% → 99%Before kickoff +20 · On the field +29: Scoreboard +37, Clock +2
• TXSTW 31-3 vs TXST94% → 100%Before kickoff +44 · On the field +6: Scoreboard +9
• CCUW 48-7 at CCU83% → 100%Before kickoff +33 · On the field +16: Scoreboard +22, Clock +1
• USAW 37-27 at USA96% → 96%Before kickoff +46 · On the field 0: Scoreboard +13, Clock +1
• TROYW 53-3 vs TROY81% → 100%Before kickoff +31 · On the field +19: Scoreboard +22
• ULMW 31-30 vs ULM91% → 94%Before kickoff +41 · On the field +3: Scoreboard +15, Timeouts +1
• APPL 38-45 at APP36% → 4%Before kickoff −14 · On the field −32: Scoreboard −32, Timeouts −1
• M-OHW 27-17 at M-OH86% → 96%Before kickoff +36 · On the field +10: Scoreboard +24, Clock +2

Points of win probability, from Louisiana's side.

Closest call

MRSH 51-54 UL (2025) - Louisiana dropped to a 4.5% win probability before pulling it out.