Try the model
TROY

Troy 3 at Louisiana 53

UL
2019 · Week 13 · Nov 23, 2019 · Cajun Field
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · UL
modelUL aheadTROY aheadconfidence bandkey playUL scoreTROY score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDTDTDFGFGSAFETYTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 8:17 · Rhys Byrns punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Luke Whittemore at the Troy 42
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+36.0+18.00−18.0−36.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 33Home team on offense+1.2Pregame prior+28.0Score differential+0.2Blowout margin−0.2Garbage-time factor+0.5Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.3
This game in five plays
  1. FG · Q1 3:37: Tyler Sumpter 30 yd FG GOOD — TROY win probability +1.6 pts (now 21%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  2. TD · Q1 0:55: Raymond Calais run for 27 yds for a TD (Stevie Artigue KICK) — UL win probability +1.9 pts (now 82%) (top driver: UL has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 11:44: Trey Ragas run for 1 yd for a TD (Stevie Artigue KICK) — UL win probability +5.7 pts (now 88%) (top driver: UL has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 8:18: Elijah Mitchell run for 11 yds for a TD (Stevie Artigue KICK) — UL win probability +2.8 pts (now 91%) (top driver: UL has the ball).
  5. FG · Q2 0:17: Stevie Artigue 49 yd FG GOOD — UL win probability +3.1 pts (now 98%) (top driver: UL has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UL made the numbers' call on 6 of 7TROY made the numbers' call on 9 of 10
  1. Q1 11:41TROY 4th & 10 at midfield, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.8%−<0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.8%
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:10UL 4th & 9 at UL 21, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 80.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.9%−0.2
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    80.1%
    average punt
  3. Q1 8:59TROY 4th & 10 at TROY 38, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.7%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.8%
    average punt
  4. Q1 8:17UL 4th & 8 at UL 20, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 79.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.7%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    79.8%
    average punt
  5. Q1 7:10TROY 4th & 3 at UL 40, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 20.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    20.2%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    20.0%−0.2
    34% to make
    Punt
    20.0%−0.2
    average punt
  6. Q1 3:37TROY 4th & 7 at UL 13, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 20.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.2%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    20.3%
    85% to make
    Punt
    18.8%−1.6
    average punt
  7. Q2 15:00TROY 4th & 6 at TROY 29, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.6%−0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    18.7%
    average punt
  8. Q2 11:44TROY 4th & 6 at TROY 29, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.1%−0.4
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    13.5%
    average punt
  9. Q2 5:46UL 4th & 8 at UL 34, up 25
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 93.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.5%−0.7
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    94.1%
    average punt
  10. Q2 2:35TROY 4th & 12 at TROY 31, down 25
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.4%−0.7
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    9.1%
    average punt
  11. Q2 0:17UL 4th & 3 at TROY 32, up 25
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 96.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.1%−0.3
    53% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    96.4%
    51% to make
    Punt
    95.6%−0.8
    average punt
  12. Q3 11:34UL 4th & 22 at TROY 28, up 28
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 98.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.5%−0.4
    8% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    98.9%
    60% to make
    Punt
    98.0%−0.8
    average punt
  13. Q3 8:26TROY 4th & 9 at TROY 39, down 40
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.5%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.6%
    average punt
  14. Q3 5:36TROY 4th & 1 at TROY 38, down 47
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.3%−0.1
    average punt
  15. Q4 9:50UL 4th & 4 at TROY 14, up 47
    Close callKicked a field goal · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.9%
    46% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    99.9%−<0.1
    84% to make
    Punt
    99.4%−0.4
    average punt
  16. Q4 9:50TROY 4th & 10 at UL 10, down 50
    Close callWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.0%−<0.1
    24% to convert
    Field goal
    0.1%
    88% to make
    Punt
    -0.2%−0.3
    average punt
  17. Q4 3:28UL 4th & 4 at UL 16, up 50
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.9%−<0.1
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    100.0%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UL made the numbers' call on 6 of 6
  1. Q1 11:41UL Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    80.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    80.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 0:55UL Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    80.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    80.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 11:44UL Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    87.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    87.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 8:18UL Touchdown, up 24 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 8:26UL Touchdown, up 39 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 5:36UL Touchdown, up 46 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ULDrive 1TD
12 plays · 69 yds · 3:1981% → 81%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+11
81.1%
Levi Lewis pass complete to Ja'Marcus Bradley for 11 yds to the LaLaf 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
81.1%
Levi Lewis pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 42
-5
81.1%
LOUISIANA Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the LaLaf 37Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 15
OWN 37
+20
81.1%
Levi Lewis pass complete to Jarrod Jackson for 20 yds to the Troy 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+2
81.1%
Raymond Calais run for 2 yds to the Troy 41Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 41
0
81.1%
Levi Lewis pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 8
OPP 41
+12
81.1%
Elijah Mitchell run for 12 yds to the Troy 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+13
81.1%
Levi Lewis pass complete to Jamal Bell for 13 yds to the Troy 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+2
81.1%
Elijah Mitchell run for 2 yds to the Troy 14Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 14
+2
81.1%
Elijah Mitchell run for 2 yds to the Troy 12Similar
Q1 11:41
3RD & 6
OPP 12
+12
81.2%
Levi Lewis pass complete to Ja'Marcus Bradley for 12 yds for a TD (Stevie Artigue KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 2PUNT
8 plays · 25 yds · 0:0019% → 19%
Q1 11:41
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+14
80.9%
Kaleb Barker pass complete to Luke Whittemore for 14 yds to the Troy 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:41
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+8
80.8%
DK Billingsley run for 8 yds to the Troy 47Similar
Q1 11:41
2ND & 2
OWN 47
+3
80.7%
DK Billingsley run for 3 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:41
1ST & 10
50
0
80.7%
Kaleb Barker pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:41
2ND & 10
50
0
80.8%
Kaleb Barker pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:41
3RD & 10
50
0
80.8%
Kaleb Barker pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:41
4TH & 10
50
0
81.0%
Tyler Sumpter punt for 50 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:0081% → 81%
Q1 10:10
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
81.0%
Levi Lewis pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:10
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+1
81.0%
Trey Ragas run for 1 yd to the LaLaf 21Similar
Q1 10:10
3RD & 9
OWN 21
0
80.8%
Levi Lewis pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:10
4TH & 9
OWN 21
0
80.7%
Rhys Byrns punt for 53 yds, downed at the Troy 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · 12 yds · 0:0019% → 19%
Q1 8:59
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+12
80.8%
Kaleb Barker pass complete to Kaylon Geiger for 12 yds to the Troy 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:59
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
80.6%
Kaleb Barker pass incomplete to Kaylon GeigerSimilar
Q1 8:59
2ND & 10
OWN 38
0
80.7%
Kaleb Barker pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:59
3RD & 10
OWN 38
0
80.8%
Kaleb Barker pass incomplete to Kaylon GeigerSimilar
Q1 8:59
4TH & 10
OWN 38
+44
81.0%
Tyler Sumpter punt for 44 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the ULLAFAYTTE 18 LOUISIANA Penalty, roughing the kicker ( Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:0081% → 81%
Q1 8:17
1ST & 10
OWN 18
0
80.9%
Levi Lewis pass incomplete to Ja'Marcus BradleySimilar
Q1 8:17
2ND & 10
OWN 18
+2
80.9%
Raymond Calais run for 2 yds to the LaLaf 20Similar
Q1 8:17
3RD & 8
OWN 20
0
80.7%
Levi Lewis pass incomplete to Jarrod JacksonSimilar
Q1 8:17
4TH & 8
OWN 20
0
80.6%
Rhys Byrns punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Luke Whittemore at the Troy 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 6FG
10 plays · 45 yds · 3:3320% → 21%
Q1 7:10
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+11
80.5%
Kaleb Barker pass complete to Trevon Woolfolk for 11 yds to the LaLaf 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:10
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+1
80.2%
Kaleb Barker pass complete to Kaylon Geiger for 1 yd to the LaLaf 46Similar
Q1 7:10
2ND & 9
OPP 46
+8
80.2%
Kaleb Barker pass complete to Kaylon Geiger for 8 yds to the LaLaf 38Similar
Q1 7:10
3RD & 1
OPP 38
-5
80.2%
TROY Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the LaLaf 43Similar
Q1 7:10
3RD & 6
OPP 43
+3
80.3%
Kaleb Barker run for 3 yds to the LaLaf 40Similar
Q1 7:10
4TH & 3
OPP 40
+24
80.5%
Kaleb Barker pass complete to AJ Lewis for 24 yds to the LaLaf 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:10
1ST & 10
OPP 16
0
79.9%
Kaleb Barker pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:10
2ND & 10
OPP 16
+3
79.9%
DK Billingsley run for 3 yds to the LaLaf 13Similar
Q1 7:10
3RD & 7
OPP 13
0
80.2%
Kaleb Barker pass incomplete to Luke Whittemore, broken up by Eric GarrorSimilar
Q1 3:37
4TH & 7
OPP 13
+30
78.6%
Tyler Sumpter 30 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 7TD
7 plays · 61 yds · 2:4279% → 82%
Q1 3:37
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
79.2%
Trey Ragas run for no gain to the LaLaf 39Similar
Q1 3:37
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+12
79.1%
Levi Lewis pass complete to Peter Leblanc for 12 yds to the Troy 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:37
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+14
79.6%
Trey Ragas run for 14 yds to the Troy 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:37
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+4
79.8%
Trey Ragas run for 4 yds to the Troy 31Similar
Q1 3:37
2ND & 6
OPP 31
+4
79.8%
Elijah Mitchell run for 4 yds to the Troy 27Similar
Q1 0:55
3RD & 2
OPP 27
+27
81.7%
Raymond Calais run for 27 yds for a TD (Stevie Artigue KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:5519% → 18%
Q1 0:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
81.4%
Kaleb Barker run for 1 yd to the Troy 26Similar
Q1 0:55
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+7
81.4%
Kaleb Barker pass complete to Luke Whittemore for 7 yds to the Troy 33Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 2
OWN 33
-4
81.3%
Kaleb Barker sacked by Ja'len Johnson and Chauncey Manac for a loss of 4 yards to the Troy 29Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
82.0%
Tyler Sumpter punt for 43 yds, downed at the LaLaf 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 9TD
6 plays · 72 yds · 2:2482% → 88%
Q2 14:08
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+7
81.6%
Levi Lewis pass complete to Jamal Bell for 7 yds to the LaLaf 35Similar
Q2 14:08
2ND & 3
OWN 35
0
81.9%
Levi Lewis pass incomplete to Jamal Bell, broken up by Craig SlocumSimilar
Q2 14:08
3RD & 3
OWN 35
+45
81.5%
Trey Ragas run for 45 yds to the Troy 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:08
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+16
82.3%
Levi Lewis pass complete to Jarrod Jackson for 16 yds to the Troy 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:08
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
82.2%
Trey Ragas run for 3 yds to the Troy 1Similar
Q2 11:44
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
87.9%
Trey Ragas run for 1 yd for a TD (Stevie Artigue KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 10PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:0013% → 13%
Q2 11:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
87.2%
Trevon Woolfolk run for 4 yds to the Troy 29Similar
Q2 11:44
2ND & 6
OWN 29
0
87.0%
Kaleb Barker pass incomplete to Luke WhittemoreSimilar
Q2 11:44
3RD & 6
OWN 29
0
87.2%
Kaleb Barker pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:44
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
87.4%
Tyler Sumpter punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Eric Garror at the LaLaf 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 11TD
6 plays · 67 yds · 2:4888% → 91%
Q2 11:06
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+13
87.9%
Levi Lewis pass complete to Jarrod Jackson for 13 yds to the LaLaf 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:06
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+1
88.2%
Levi Lewis run for 1 yd to the LaLaf 47Similar
Q2 11:06
2ND & 9
OWN 47
+34
88.2%
Levi Lewis pass complete to Ja'Marcus Bradley for 34 yds to the Troy 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:06
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+6
88.1%
Levi Lewis pass complete to Raymond Calais for 6 yds to the Troy 13Similar
Q2 11:06
2ND & 4
OPP 13
+2
88.1%
Levi Lewis pass complete to Jarrod Jackson for 2 yds to the Troy 11Similar
Q2 8:18
3RD & 2
OPP 11
+11
90.9%
Elijah Mitchell run for 11 yds for a TD (Stevie Artigue KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 12INT
10 plays · 52 yds · 0:0012% → 13%
Q2 8:18
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+6
88.2%
DK Billingsley run for 6 yds to the Troy 27Similar
Q2 8:18
2ND & 4
OWN 27
+10
87.7%
Kaleb Barker pass complete to Kaylon Geiger for 10 yds to the Troy 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:18
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+6
87.7%
Kaleb Barker pass complete to DK Billingsley for 6 yds to the Troy 43Similar
Q2 8:18
2ND & 4
OWN 43
+10
87.1%
Kaleb Barker pass complete to Kaylon Geiger for 10 yds to the LaLaf 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:18
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+5
87.1%
LOUISIANA Penalty, offside defense (Jacques Boudreaux) to the LaLaf 42Similar
Q2 8:18
1ST & 5
OPP 42
+15
86.3%
Barker, Kaleb pass incomplete to Geiger, Kaylon (Garror, Eric), PENALTY LA pass interference (Butler, Percy) 15 yards to the LA27, 1ST DOWN TROY, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 8:18
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+7
86.3%
Trevon Woolfolk run for 7 yds to the LaLaf 20Similar
Q2 8:18
2ND & 3
OPP 20
-7
84.6%
Kaleb Barker pass complete to Khalil McClain for 8 yds to the LaLaf 12 TROY Penalty, illegal block (-15 Yards) to the LaLaf 27Similar
Q2 8:18
2ND & 10
OPP 27
0
86.6%
Kaleb Barker pass intercepted Asjlin Washington return for no gain to the LaLaf 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 13PUNT
9 plays · 27 yds · 0:0094% → 94%
Q2 5:46
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+15
94.4%
Levi Lewis pass complete to Pearse Migl for 15 yds to the LaLaf 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:46
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
94.3%
Levi Lewis pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:46
2ND & 10
OWN 22
+10
94.3%
Raymond Calais run for 10 yds to the LaLaf 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:46
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+9
94.4%
Levi Lewis pass complete to Jalen Williams for 9 yds to the LaLaf 41Similar
Q2 5:46
2ND & 1
OWN 41
0
94.3%
Levi Lewis pass incomplete to Jamal BellSimilar
Q2 5:46
3RD & 1
OWN 41
-5
94.3%
LOUISIANA Penalty, illegal procedure (-5 Yards) to the LaLaf 36Similar
Q2 5:46
3RD & 6
OWN 36
+3
94.2%
Elijah Mitchell run for 3 yds to the LaLaf 39Similar
Q2 5:46
4TH & 3
OWN 39
-5
94.0%
LOUISIANA Penalty, delay of game (Rhys Byrns) to the LaLaf 34Similar
Q2 5:46
4TH & 8
OWN 34
0
94.0%
Rhys Byrns punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Luke Whittemore at the Troy 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 14PUNT
6 plays · 13 yds · 0:4410% → 10%
Q2 3:19
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+15
90.1%
Kaleb Barker pass complete to Reggie Todd for 30 yds to the Troy 48 for a 1ST down TROY Penalty, illegal block (Kaylon Geiger) to the Troy 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:19
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+3
89.6%
DK Billingsley run for 3 yds to the Troy 36Similar
Q2 3:19
2ND & 7
OWN 36
-5
89.5%
Kaleb Barker sacked by Joe Dillon for a loss of 5 yards to the Troy 31Similar
Q2 2:35
3RD & 12
OWN 31
0
89.9%
Kaleb Barker pass incomplete to DK Billingsley, broken up by Joe DillonSimilar
Q2 2:35
4TH & 12
OWN 31
-2
90.0%
Tyler Sumpter punt for 47 yds , Eric Garror returns for a loss of 2 yards to the LaLaf 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 15FG
14 plays · 48 yds · 1:5994% → 98%
Q2 2:16
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
93.9%
Raymond Calais run for 4 yds to the LaLaf 24Similar
Q2 2:16
2ND & 6
OWN 24
+13
93.7%
Raymond Calais run for 13 yds to the LaLaf 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:16
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+3
93.7%
Raymond Calais run for 3 yds to the LaLaf 40Similar
Q2 1:20
2ND & 7
OWN 40
+9
92.4%
Levi Lewis pass complete to Ja'Marcus Bradley for 9 yds to the LaLaf 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:20
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
93.2%
Levi Lewis pass incomplete to Jamal Bell, broken up by Jawon McDowellSimilar
Q2 1:20
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+6
93.1%
Levi Lewis pass complete to Jamal Bell for 6 yds to the Troy 45Similar
Q2 1:20
3RD & 4
OPP 45
+6
93.0%
Levi Lewis run for 6 yds to the Troy 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:20
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+4
93.3%
Levi Lewis pass complete to Neal Johnson for 4 yds to the Troy 35Similar
Q2 1:20
2ND & 6
OPP 35
-2
93.3%
Trey Ragas run for a loss of 2 yards to the Troy 37Similar
Q2 0:30
3RD & 8
OPP 37
+5
95.1%
Lewis, Levi pass incomplete, PENALTY TROY offside defense (Showers, Antonio) 5 yards to the TROY32, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:30
3RD & 3
OPP 32
0
95.2%
Levi Lewis pass incomplete to Elijah MitchellSimilar
Q2 0:17
4TH & 3
OPP 32
+49
98.3%
Stevie Artigue 49 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 16END OF HALF
5 plays · 61 yds · 0:102% → 2%
Q2 0:17
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+16
97.8%
DK Billingsley run for 16 yds to the Troy 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:07
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+14
98.2%
DK Billingsley run for 14 yds to the LaLaf 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:07
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+31
97.9%
Kaleb Barker pass complete to DK Billingsley for 31 yds to the LaLaf 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 17FUMBLE
6 plays · 21 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
98.0%
Kaleb Barker pass complete to Kaylon Geiger for 3 yds to the Troy 28Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+6
97.9%
DK Billingsley run for 6 yds to the Troy 34Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+5
97.7%
DK Billingsley run for 5 yds to the Troy 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+4
97.9%
DK Billingsley run for 4 yds to the Troy 43Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 43
+6
97.7%
Kaleb Barker pass complete to Reggie Todd for 6 yds Reggie Todd fumbled, forced by Jacques Boudreaux, recovered by LaLaf Kris MoncriefSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 18FG
5 plays · 18 yds · 1:5899% → 99%
Q3 13:32
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+30
98.9%
Levi Lewis pass complete to Ja'Marcus Bradley for 30 yds to the Troy 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:32
1ST & 10
OPP 16
-3
98.9%
Elijah Mitchell run for a loss of 3 yards to the Troy 19Similar
Q3 13:32
2ND & 13
OPP 19
+8
98.9%
Levi Lewis pass complete to Peter Leblanc for 8 yds to the Troy 11Similar
Q3 13:32
3RD & 5
OPP 11
-17
98.9%
Levi Lewis sacked by A.J. Smiley and Collin Willis for a loss of 17 yards to the Troy 28 LOUISIANA Penalty, intentional grounding (Levi Lewis) to the Troy 28Similar
Q3 11:34
4TH & 22
OPP 28
+45
99.2%
Stevie Artigue 45 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 19SF
3 plays · -8 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q3 11:16
1ST & 10
OWN 8
-8
99.2%
Kaleb Barker sacked by Jourdan Quibodeaux for a loss of 8 yards for a SAFETYSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 20TD
8 plays · 59 yds · 2:5099% → 100%
Q3 11:16
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+7
99.2%
Levi Lewis pass complete to Raymond Calais for 7 yds to the LaLaf 48Similar
Q3 11:16
2ND & 3
OWN 48
+4
99.2%
Trey Ragas run for 4 yds to the Troy 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:16
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+28
99.2%
Levi Lewis pass complete to Jalen Williams for 28 yds to the Troy 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:16
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+1
99.2%
Trey Ragas run for 1 yd to the Troy 19Similar
Q3 11:16
2ND & 9
OPP 19
0
99.2%
Levi Lewis pass incomplete to Jalen Williams, broken up by Jawon McDowellSimilar
Q3 11:16
3RD & 9
OPP 19
+11
99.2%
Levi Lewis pass complete to Neal Johnson for 11 yds to the Troy 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:26
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
99.5%
Trey Ragas run for 8 yds for a TD (Stevie Artigue KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 21PUNT
8 plays · 14 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q3 8:26
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
99.4%
Trevon Woolfolk run for 5 yds to the Troy 30Similar
Q3 8:26
2ND & 5
OWN 30
-1
99.4%
Kaleb Barker sacked by Andre Jones for a loss of 1 yard to the Troy 29Similar
Q3 8:26
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+9
99.4%
Kaleb Barker run for 9 yds to the Troy 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:26
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
99.4%
Kaleb Barker pass incomplete to Luke WhittemoreSimilar
Q3 8:26
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+1
99.4%
Trevon Woolfolk run for 1 yd to the Troy 39Similar
Q3 8:26
3RD & 9
OWN 39
0
99.4%
Kaleb Barker pass incomplete to Reggie ToddSimilar
Q3 8:26
4TH & 9
OWN 39
0
99.5%
Tyler Sumpter punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Eric Garror at the LaLaf 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 22TD
1 play · 80 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q3 5:36
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+80
99.6%
Chris Smith run for 80 yds for a TD (Stevie Artigue KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 23INT
9 plays · 42 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q3 5:36
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+4
99.7%
Jamontez Woods run for 4 yds to the Troy 19Similar
Q3 5:36
2ND & 6
OWN 19
+10
99.7%
Jamontez Woods run for 10 yds to the Troy 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:36
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+4
99.7%
Jamontez Woods run for 4 yds to the Troy 33Similar
Q3 5:36
2ND & 6
OWN 33
0
99.7%
Kaleb Barker pass incomplete to Reggie ToddSimilar
Q3 5:36
3RD & 6
OWN 33
+5
99.7%
Barker, Kaleb pass incomplete to Geiger, Kaylon (Manac, Chauncey), PENALTY LA OF (Nelson, Ja'Quane) 5 yards to the TROY38, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 5:36
3RD & 1
OWN 38
0
99.7%
Kaleb Barker pass incomplete to Kaylon GeigerSimilar
Q3 5:36
4TH & 1
OWN 38
+19
99.6%
Kaleb Barker run for 19 yds to the LaLaf 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:36
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
99.7%
Kaleb Barker pass intercepted Jayrin Wilson return for no gain to the LaLaf 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 24FG
15 plays · 80 yds · 7:39100% → 100%
Q3 2:29
1ST & 10
OWN 6
-3
99.7%
LOUISIANA Penalty, sideline interference (-3 Yards) to the LaLaf 3Similar
Q3 2:29
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+1
99.8%
Ashton Johnson run for 1 yd to the LaLaf 4Similar
Q3 2:29
2ND & 9
OWN 4
-1
99.7%
Ashton Johnson run for a loss of 1 yard to the LaLaf 3Similar
Q3 2:29
3RD & 10
OWN 3
+5
99.7%
TROY Penalty, offside defense (Travon Mathis) to the LaLaf 8Similar
Q3 2:29
3RD & 5
OWN 8
+8
99.7%
Jai'ave Magalei pass complete to Brian Smith Jr. for 8 yds to the LaLaf 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:29
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+1
99.7%
Chris Smith run for 1 yd to the LaLaf 17Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 17
+14
99.8%
Jai'ave Magalei pass complete to Cassius Allen for 14 yds to the LaLaf 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+13
99.8%
Jai'ave Magalei pass complete to Brandon Legendre for 13 yds to the LaLaf 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+9
99.8%
Jai'ave Magalei pass complete to Brandon Legendre for 9 yds to the Troy 47Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 1
OPP 47
+3
99.8%
Chris Smith run for 3 yds to the Troy 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+24
99.8%
Jai'ave Magalei pass complete to Cassius Allen for 24 yds to the Troy 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+3
99.8%
Jai'ave Magalei pass complete to Calif Gossett for 3 yds to the Troy 17Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 17
+1
99.8%
Chris Smith run for 1 yd to the Troy 16Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 6
OPP 16
+2
99.8%
Chris Smith run for 2 yds to the Troy 14Similar
Q4 9:50
4TH & 4
OPP 14
+31
99.9%
Stevie Artigue 31 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 25DOWNS
18 plays · 65 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 9:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
99.9%
Jamontez Woods run for 4 yds to the Troy 29Similar
Q4 9:50
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+8
99.9%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to AJ Lewis for 8 yds to the Troy 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:50
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+6
99.9%
Jamontez Woods run for 6 yds to the Troy 43Similar
Q4 9:50
2ND & 4
OWN 43
+3
99.9%
Jamontez Woods run for 3 yds to the Troy 46Similar
Q4 9:50
3RD & 1
OWN 46
+2
99.9%
Jamontez Woods run for 2 yds to the Troy 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:50
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+12
99.9%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Dalton Adkison for 12 yds to the LaLaf 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:50
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+4
99.9%
Jamontez Woods run for 4 yds to the LaLaf 36Similar
Q4 9:50
2ND & 6
OPP 36
+5
99.9%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Dalton Adkison for 5 yds to the LaLaf 31Similar
Q4 9:50
3RD & 1
OPP 31
+5
99.9%
Jamontez Woods run for 5 yds to the LaLaf 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:50
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
99.9%
Gunnar Watson pass incomplete to Luke WhittemoreSimilar
Q4 9:50
2ND & 10
OPP 26
+3
99.9%
Jamontez Woods run for 3 yds to the LaLaf 23Similar
Q4 9:50
3RD & 7
OPP 23
0
99.9%
Gunnar Watson pass incomplete to AJ LewisSimilar
Q4 9:50
4TH & 7
OPP 23
+15
99.9%
Watson, Gunnar pass incomplete to Whittemore, Luke, PENALTY LA pass interference (Garner, Mekhi) 15 yards to the LA8, 1ST DOWN TROY, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 9:50
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
0
99.9%
Gunnar Watson pass incomplete to Timmie Gibson, broken up by Deuce WallaceSimilar
Q4 9:50
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
-2
99.9%
Jamontez Woods run for a loss of 2 yards to the LaLaf 10Similar
Q4 9:50
3RD & GOAL
OPP 10
0
99.9%
Gunnar Watson pass incomplete to Reggie Todd, broken up by Kamar GreenhouseSimilar
Q4 9:50
4TH & GOAL
OPP 10
0
99.9%
Gunnar Watson pass incomplete to AJ Lewis, broken up by Kam PedescleauxSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 26PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 3:28
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+1
100.0%
Michael Orphey Jr. run for 1 yd to the LaLaf 11Similar
Q4 3:28
2ND & 9
OWN 11
+5
100.0%
Michael Orphey Jr. run for 5 yds to the LaLaf 16Similar
Q4 3:28
3RD & 4
OWN 16
0
100.0%
Chandler Fields pass complete to Alex Allen for no gain to the LaLaf 16Similar
Q4 3:28
4TH & 4
OWN 16
0
100.0%
Rhys Byrns punt for 55 yds, downed at the Troy 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 27END OF GAME
2 plays · 14 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 1:12
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+9
100.0%
Jamontez Woods run for 9 yds to the Troy 38Similar
Q4 1:12
2ND & 1
OWN 38
+5
100.0%
Jamontez Woods run for 5 yds to the Troy 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 11:44
Trey Ragas run for 1 yd for a TD (Stevie Artigue KICK)
+5.7
FG · Q2 0:17
Stevie Artigue 49 yd FG GOOD
+3.1
TD · Q2 8:18
Elijah Mitchell run for 11 yds for a TD (Stevie Artigue KICK)
+2.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com