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UL

Louisiana 38 at App State 45

APP
2019 · Week 15 · Dec 7, 2019 · Kidd Brewer Stadium
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Win probability · APP
modelAPP aheadUL aheadconfidence bandkey playAPP scoreUL score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 9:16 · Elijah Mitchell run for 2 yds to the AppSt 44 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+32.5+16.30−16.3−32.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 112Home team on offense+16.9Score differential+6.7Pregame prior+5.6Garbage-time factor+5.4Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+5.5Blowout margin+0.7
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 0:25: Levi Lewis pass complete to Peter Leblanc for 37 yds for a TD (Stevie Artigue KICK) — UL win probability +8.4 pts (now 29%) (top driver: UL has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 13:27: Marcus Williams Jr. run for 29 yds for a TD (Chandler Staton KICK) — APP win probability +9.3 pts (now 84%) (top driver: APP has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 8:13: Levi Lewis pass complete to Elijah Mitchell for 1 yd for a TD (Stevie Artigue KICK) — UL win probability +9.8 pts (now 27%) (top driver: UL has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 4:13: Daetrich Harrington run for 25 yds for a TD (Chandler Staton KICK) — APP win probability +12.4 pts (now 91%) (top driver: APP has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 1:19: Levi Lewis pass complete to Peter Leblanc for 38 yds for a TD LOUISIANA Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the AppSt 8 (Stevie Artigue KICK) — UL win probability +11.2 pts (now 14%) (top driver: UL has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
APP made the numbers' call on 7 of 9UL made the numbers' call on 4 of 5
  1. Q1 8:25UL 4th & 4 at UL 31, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.7%−0.3
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.0%
    average punt
  2. Q1 5:05APP 4th & 1 at UL 24, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 71.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    71.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    70.6%−1.0
    68% to make
    Punt
    67.7%−3.9
    average punt
  3. Q1 3:30APP 4th & 1 at UL 14, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 72.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    72.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    71.3%−1.2
    84% to make
    Punt
    67.6%−4.8
    average punt
  4. Q2 1:31UL 4th & 9 at APP 22, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 10.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.3%−0.7
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    9.9%
    72% to make
    Punt
    6.7%−3.2
    average punt
  5. Q2 1:09APP 4th & 5 at APP 27, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 91.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.5%−0.7
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    91.2%
    average punt
  6. Q3 14:01UL 4th & 3 at UL 29, down 18
    Close callPunted · 13.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.3%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    13.7%−0.6
    average punt
  7. Q3 12:32APP 4th & 3 at APP 29, up 18
    Close callPunted · 89.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.9%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    90.4%−0.5
    average punt
  8. Q3 9:16UL 4th & 2 at APP 46, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 10.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    11.1%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    8.0%−3.1
    23% to make
    Punt
    9.7%−1.4
    average punt
  9. Q3 6:32APP 4th & 9 at midfield, up 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 92.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.7%−0.3
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    93.1%
    average punt
  10. Q4 14:47APP 4th & 4 at APP 41, up 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 95.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.9%−0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    96.0%
    average punt
  11. Q4 12:53UL 4th & 9 at UL 22, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.8%−0.9
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.7%
    average punt
  12. Q4 8:12APP 4th & 3 at UL 18, up 18
    Close callKicked a field goal · 97.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.4%
    51% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    97.2%−0.2
    79% to make
    Punt
    95.2%−2.2
    average punt
  13. Q4 2:36APP 4th & 2 at UL 26, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 97.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    97.3%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    97.0%−0.3
    64% to make
    Punt
    95.7%−1.7
    average punt
  14. Q4 2:28APP 4th & 4 at UL 36, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 97.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    97.4%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    97.1%−0.3
    42% to make
    Punt
    96.8%−0.6
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
APP made the numbers' call on 6 of 6UL made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
  1. Q1 13:02APP Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    65.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    65.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 9:38APP Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    67.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    67.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 1:43APP Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    81.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    81.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q1 0:25UL Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    26.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    26.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 13:27APP Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    84.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    84.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 8:13UL Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    22.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    22.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q2 4:13APP Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    90.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 5:57APP Touchdown, up 24 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q3 2:41UL Touchdown, down 19 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    5.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    5.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 4:18UL Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    3.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    3.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  11. Q4 1:19UL Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    5.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    4.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
APPDrive 1TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 1:3364% → 65%
Q1 14:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
64.1%
Darrynton Evans run for 3 yds to the AppSt 28Similar
Q1 14:21
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
64.1%
Zac Thomas pass incomplete to Jalen VirgilSimilar
Q1 14:00
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+19
64.1%
Zac Thomas pass complete to Malik Williams for 19 yds to the AppSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:26
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-5
64.2%
Jalen Virgil run for a loss of 5 yards to the AppSt 42Similar
Q1 13:14
2ND & 15
OWN 42
0
64.1%
Zac Thomas pass incomplete to Thomas HenniganSimilar
Q1 13:02
3RD & 15
OWN 42
+58
64.7%
Zac Thomas pass complete to Darrynton Evans for 58 yds for a TD (Chandler Staton KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 2FUMBLE
4 plays · 35 yds · 1:1035% → 35%
Q1 12:48
1ST & 10
OWN 12
-1
64.8%
Raymond Calais run for a loss of 1 yard to the LaLaf 11Similar
Q1 11:55
2ND & 11
OWN 11
+43
65.0%
Levi Lewis pass complete to Peter Leblanc for 43 yds to the AppSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:38
1ST & 10
OPP 46
-7
64.7%
Raymond Calais run for a loss of 7 yards to the LaLaf 47 Raymond Calais fumbled, forced by E.J. Scott, recovered by AppSt E.J. ScottSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 3TD
5 plays · 47 yds · 1:2866% → 68%
Q1 11:06
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+9
65.7%
Zac Thomas pass complete to Thomas Hennigan for 9 yds to the LaLaf 38Similar
Q1 10:55
2ND & 1
OPP 38
+5
65.8%
Zac Thomas run for 5 yds to the LaLaf 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:26
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+25
66.0%
Zac Thomas run for 25 yds to the LaLaf 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
0
66.2%
Marcus Williams Jr. run for no gain to the LaLaf 8Similar
Q1 9:38
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
68.1%
Darrynton Evans run for 8 yds for a TD (Chandler Staton KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:5733% → 32%
Q1 9:22
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
67.5%
Elijah Mitchell run for 6 yds to the LaLaf 31Similar
Q1 9:00
2ND & 4
OWN 31
0
67.6%
Elijah Mitchell run for no gain to the LaLaf 31Similar
Q1 8:32
3RD & 4
OWN 31
0
67.9%
Levi Lewis pass incomplete to Jarrod JacksonSimilar
Q1 8:25
4TH & 4
OWN 31
0
68.1%
Rhys Byrns punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Thomas Hennigan at the AppSt 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 5TD
15 plays · 76 yds · 6:3069% → 79%
Q1 8:13
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+15
69.0%
Zac Thomas pass complete to Thomas Hennigan for 15 yds to the AppSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:43
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+8
69.6%
Marcus Williams Jr. run for 8 yds to the AppSt 47Similar
Q1 6:50
2ND & 2
OWN 47
+20
70.5%
Marcus Williams Jr. run for 20 yds to the LaLaf 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:30
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+1
70.8%
Darrynton Evans run for 1 yd to the LaLaf 32Similar
Q1 5:55
2ND & 9
OPP 32
+7
71.2%
Zac Thomas run for 7 yds to the LaLaf 25Similar
Q1 5:28
3RD & 2
OPP 25
+1
71.3%
Zac Thomas run for 1 yd to the LaLaf 24Similar
Q1 5:05
4TH & 1
OPP 24
+1
71.0%
Darrynton Evans run for 1 yd to the LaLaf 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:35
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
72.0%
Darrynton Evans run for no gain to the LaLaf 23Similar
Q1 4:10
2ND & 10
OPP 23
0
72.0%
Zac Thomas pass incomplete to Henry PearsonSimilar
Q1 3:57
3RD & 10
OPP 23
+9
71.7%
Zac Thomas pass complete to Jalen Virgil for 9 yds to the LaLaf 14Similar
Q1 3:30
4TH & 1
OPP 14
+4
71.5%
Zac Thomas run for 4 yds to the LaLaf 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:57
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+4
72.3%
Darrynton Evans run for 4 yds to the LaLaf 6Similar
Q1 2:15
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+1
72.7%
Darrynton Evans run for 1 yd to the LaLaf 5Similar
Q1 1:43
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
78.9%
Zac Thomas pass complete to Darrynton Evans for 5 yds for a TD APPALACHIAN ST Penalty, False Start (Mike Evans) to the LaLaf 8 (Chandler Staton KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 6TD
6 plays · 71 yds · 1:0422% → 29%
Q1 1:29
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
78.5%
Levi Lewis pass incomplete to Ja'Marcus BradleySimilar
Q1 1:00
2ND & 10
OWN 29
+21
79.3%
Levi Lewis pass complete to Jarrod Jackson for 21 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:48
1ST & 10
50
0
78.3%
Levi Lewis pass incomplete to Trey RagasSimilar
Q1 0:40
2ND & 10
50
+13
79.0%
Trey Ragas run for 13 yds to the AppSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:25
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+37
70.6%
Levi Lewis pass complete to Peter Leblanc for 37 yds for a TD (Stevie Artigue KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 7TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 1:4373% → 84%
Q1 0:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
72.9%
Daetrich Harrington run for 2 yds to the AppSt 27Similar
Q2 14:54
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+8
73.0%
Daetrich Harrington run for 8 yds to the AppSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:27
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+14
73.3%
Zac Thomas pass complete to Thomas Hennigan for 14 yds to the AppSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:58
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+22
74.5%
Daetrich Harrington run for 22 yds to the LaLaf 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:27
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+29
83.8%
Marcus Williams Jr. run for 29 yds for a TD (Chandler Staton KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 8TD
12 plays · 76 yds · 4:5718% → 27%
Q2 13:10
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+9
81.7%
Levi Lewis pass complete to Ja'Marcus Bradley for 9 yds to the LaLaf 33Similar
Q2 12:44
2ND & 1
OWN 33
+1
81.6%
Raymond Calais run for 1 yd to the LaLaf 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:16
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+19
82.3%
Raymond Calais run for 19 yds to the AppSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:30
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+19
82.3%
Levi Lewis pass complete to Jarrod Jackson for 19 yds to the AppSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:04
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
81.8%
Levi Lewis pass incomplete to Nick RalstonSimilar
Q2 10:55
2ND & 10
OPP 28
+2
82.3%
Elijah Mitchell run for 2 yds to the AppSt 26Similar
Q2 10:23
3RD & 8
OPP 26
+10
83.2%
Elijah Mitchell run for 10 yds to the AppSt 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:11
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+12
82.5%
Levi Lewis run for 12 yds to the AppSt 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:32
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+2
82.8%
Trey Ragas run for 2 yds to the AppSt 2Similar
Q2 8:55
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
83.3%
Trey Ragas run for 1 yd to the AppSt 1Similar
Q2 8:13
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
73.4%
Levi Lewis pass complete to Elijah Mitchell for 1 yd for a TD (Stevie Artigue KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 9TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 3:5075% → 91%
Q2 8:03
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
75.4%
Zac Thomas pass incomplete to Thomas HenniganSimilar
Q2 7:53
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+12
75.6%
Darrynton Evans run for 12 yds to the AppSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:22
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+7
76.4%
Malik Williams run for 7 yds to the AppSt 44Similar
Q2 6:45
2ND & 3
OWN 44
+2
77.1%
Daetrich Harrington run for 2 yds to the AppSt 46Similar
Q2 6:15
3RD & 1
OWN 46
+4
76.6%
Darrynton Evans run for 4 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:39
1ST & 10
50
+16
77.8%
Darrynton Evans run for 16 yds to the LaLaf 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:19
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+3
78.0%
Darrynton Evans run for 3 yds to the LaLaf 31Similar
Q2 4:42
2ND & 7
OPP 31
+6
78.2%
Daetrich Harrington run for 6 yds to the LaLaf 25Similar
Q2 4:13
3RD & 1
OPP 25
+25
90.7%
Daetrich Harrington run for 25 yds for a TD (Chandler Staton KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 10MISSED FG
9 plays · 58 yds · 2:1711% → 11%
Q2 3:48
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+9
88.6%
Elijah Mitchell run for 9 yds to the LaLaf 29Similar
Q2 3:26
2ND & 1
OWN 29
+18
88.2%
Elijah Mitchell run for 18 yds to the LaLaf 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:00
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+18
88.3%
Levi Lewis pass complete to Ja'Marcus Bradley for 18 yds to the AppSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:49
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+12
87.5%
Elijah Mitchell run for 12 yds to the AppSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:15
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+1
87.4%
Trey Ragas run for 1 yd to the AppSt 22Similar
Q2 1:44
2ND & 9
OPP 22
0
87.3%
Levi Lewis pass incomplete to Trey RagasSimilar
Q2 1:35
3RD & 9
OPP 22
0
88.3%
Levi Lewis pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:31
4TH & 9
OPP 22
+39
89.0%
Stevie Artigue 39 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 11PUNT
7 plays · 5 yds · 0:1492% → 93%
Q2 1:23
1ST & 10
OWN 22
-3
92.3%
Darrynton Evans run for a loss of 3 yards to the AppSt 19Similar
Q2 1:19
2ND & 13
OWN 19
+5
92.5%
Darrynton Evans run for 5 yds to the AppSt 24Similar
Q2 1:16
3RD & 8
OWN 24
+3
92.3%
Darrynton Evans run for 3 yds to the AppSt 27Similar
Q2 1:09
4TH & 5
OWN 27
0
92.6%
Xavier Subotsch punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Eric Garror at the LaLaf 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 12DOWNS
9 plays · 37 yds · 0:579% → 11%
Q2 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
91.0%
Raymond Calais run for no gain to the LaLaf 27Similar
Q2 0:43
2ND & 10
OWN 27
0
91.2%
Levi Lewis pass incomplete to Neal JohnsonSimilar
Q2 0:37
3RD & 10
OWN 27
+10
91.4%
Levi Lewis pass complete to Calif Gossett for 10 yds to the LaLaf 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:25
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+18
90.7%
Levi Lewis pass complete to Jarrod Jackson for 18 yds to the AppSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:14
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+14
89.8%
Levi Lewis pass complete to Devon Pauley for 14 yds to the AppSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:08
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
92.7%
Levi Lewis pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:08
2ND & 10
OPP 31
-5
93.3%
LOUISIANA Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the AppSt 36Similar
Q2 0:03
2ND & 15
OPP 36
+53
89.2%
Stevie Artigue 53 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 13PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:4714% → 14%
Q3 14:48
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
85.9%
Levi Lewis pass incomplete to Ja'Marcus BradleySimilar
Q3 14:30
2ND & 10
OWN 22
+7
86.3%
Levi Lewis run for 7 yds to the LaLaf 29Similar
Q3 14:07
3RD & 3
OWN 29
0
85.9%
Levi Lewis pass incomplete to Ja'Marcus BradleySimilar
Q3 14:01
4TH & 3
OWN 29
0
86.4%
Rhys Byrns punt for 49 yds, fair catch by Daetrich Harrington at the AppSt 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 14PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:2389% → 90%
Q3 13:55
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
89.2%
Zac Thomas pass incomplete to Henry PearsonSimilar
Q3 13:19
2ND & 10
OWN 22
-5
89.1%
Zac Thomas sacked by Bennie Higgins for a loss of 5 yards to the AppSt 17Similar
Q3 12:43
3RD & 15
OWN 17
+12
88.2%
Zac Thomas pass complete to Thomas Hennigan for 12 yds to the AppSt 29Similar
Q3 12:32
4TH & 3
OWN 29
+40
89.5%
Xavier Subotsch punt for 40 yds , Eric Garror returns for a loss of 1 yard to the LaLaf 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 15FUMBLE
11 plays · 38 yds · 3:5914% → 11%
Q3 12:26
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+5
86.4%
APPALACHIAN ST Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the LaLaf 35Similar
Q3 12:15
1ST & 5
OWN 35
+1
85.7%
Elijah Mitchell run for 1 yd to the LaLaf 36Similar
Q3 11:31
2ND & 4
OWN 36
+10
86.8%
Levi Lewis pass complete to Jalen Williams for 10 yds to the LaLaf 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:40
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+1
87.0%
Elijah Mitchell run for 1 yd to the LaLaf 47Similar
Q3 10:29
2ND & 9
OWN 47
+6
87.3%
Elijah Mitchell run for 6 yds to the AppSt 47Similar
Q3 9:54
3RD & 3
OPP 47
+1
89.0%
Elijah Mitchell run for 1 yd to the AppSt 46Similar
Q3 9:16
4TH & 2
OPP 46
+2
89.6%
Elijah Mitchell run for 2 yds to the AppSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:52
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
89.5%
Levi Lewis pass incomplete to Jarrod JacksonSimilar
Q3 8:39
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+12
89.8%
Levi Lewis pass complete to Ja'Marcus Bradley for 12 yds to the AppSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:27
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+6
89.1%
Levi Lewis run for 6 yds to the AppSt 28 Levi Lewis fumbled, forced by Noel Cook, recovered by AppSt Desmond Franklin , return for 2 yds to the AppSt 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · 22 yds · 1:1893% → 93%
Q3 7:50
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+21
93.4%
Zac Thomas run for 21 yds to the AppSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:30
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
93.7%
Zac Thomas pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:00
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+3
93.8%
Zac Thomas run for 3 yds to the LaLaf 48Similar
Q3 6:50
3RD & 7
OPP 48
-2
93.8%
Zac Thomas sacked by Joe Dillon for a loss of 2 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 6:32
4TH & 9
50
+1
93.4%
Xavier Subotsch punt for 42 yds , Eric Garror returns for 1 yd to the LaLaf 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 17INT TD
2 plays · 2 yds · 0:308% → 2%
Q3 6:27
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+2
92.1%
Levi Lewis run for 2 yds to the LaLaf 11Similar
Q3 5:57
2ND & 8
OWN 11
+15
97.7%
Levi Lewis pass intercepted for a TD Josh Thomas return for 15 yds for a TD (Chandler Staton KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 18TD
10 plays · 63 yds · 3:063% → 7%
Q3 5:47
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+1
97.4%
Levi Lewis pass complete to Jamal Bell for 1 yd to the LaLaf 38Similar
Q3 5:28
2ND & 9
OWN 38
+2
97.4%
Levi Lewis run for 2 yds to the LaLaf 40Similar
Q3 4:33
3RD & 7
OWN 40
+13
98.0%
Levi Lewis pass complete to Jalen Williams for 13 yds to the AppSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:19
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+31
97.6%
Raymond Calais run for 31 yds to the AppSt 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:00
1ST & 10
OPP 16
0
97.5%
Levi Lewis pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:55
2ND & 10
OPP 16
+14
97.5%
Lewis, Levi pass incomplete to Bradley, Ja'Marcus, PENALTY APPALCHAN pass interference (Jean-Charles, Shemar) 14 yards to the APPALCHAN2, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN ULLAFAYTTE.Similar
Q3 3:46
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
-2
97.2%
Elijah Mitchell run for a loss of 2 yards to the AppSt 4Similar
Q3 3:13
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+2
97.4%
Elijah Mitchell run for 2 yds to the AppSt 2Similar
Q3 2:41
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
92.6%
Levi Lewis pass complete to Ja'Marcus Bradley for 2 yds for a TD (Stevie Artigue KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 19FUMBLE
3 plays · -13 yds · 0:1695% → 95%
Q3 2:17
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
95.1%
Marcus Williams Jr. run for 3 yds to the AppSt 28Similar
Q3 2:01
2ND & 7
OWN 28
-16
95.2%
Zac Thomas sacked by Asjlin Washington for a loss of 16 yards to the AppSt 12 Zac Thomas fumbled, forced by Asjlin Washington, recovered by LaLaf Zi'Yon Hill , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 20MISSED FG
4 plays · -23 yds · 0:508% → 6%
Q3 1:51
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+2
92.4%
Trey Ragas run for 2 yds to the AppSt 10Similar
Q3 1:18
2ND & 8
OPP 10
0
92.5%
Levi Lewis pass incomplete to Jarrod JacksonSimilar
Q3 1:10
3RD & 8
OPP 35
-25
93.4%
Levi Lewis sacked by Demetrius Taylor for a loss of 25 yards to the AppSt 35 LOUISIANA Penalty, Intentional Grounding (Levi Lewis) to the AppSt 35Similar
Q3 1:01
4TH & 33
OPP 35
+52
94.2%
Stevie Artigue 52 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 21PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:4396% → 96%
Q3 0:30
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
95.9%
Darrynton Evans run for 2 yds to the AppSt 37Similar
Q3 0:01
2ND & 8
OWN 37
+4
96.3%
Darrynton Evans run for 4 yds to the AppSt 41Similar
Q4 14:57
3RD & 4
OWN 41
0
96.4%
Zac Thomas pass incomplete to Jalen VirgilSimilar
Q4 14:47
4TH & 4
OWN 41
0
96.1%
Xavier Subotsch punt for 47 yds , Eric Garror returns for no gain to the LaLaf 41 LOUISIANA Penalty, Personal Foul (6 Yards) to the LaLaf 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 22PUNT
6 plays · 16 yds · 1:475% → 4%
Q4 14:40
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+7
95.2%
Elijah Mitchell run for 7 yds to the LaLaf 13Similar
Q4 14:04
2ND & 3
OWN 13
+8
95.4%
Elijah Mitchell run for 8 yds to the LaLaf 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:48
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
95.4%
Levi Lewis pass incomplete to Neal JohnsonSimilar
Q4 13:40
2ND & 10
OWN 21
+1
95.4%
Elijah Mitchell run for 1 yd to the LaLaf 22Similar
Q4 13:02
3RD & 9
OWN 22
0
95.7%
Levi Lewis pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:53
4TH & 9
OWN 22
0
95.7%
Rhys Byrns punt for 39 yds, downed at the AppSt 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 23FG
9 plays · 43 yds · 4:2097% → 99%
Q4 12:32
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+10
97.3%
Daetrich Harrington run for 10 yds to the AppSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:48
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+9
97.4%
Daetrich Harrington run for 9 yds to the LaLaf 42Similar
Q4 10:55
2ND & 1
OPP 42
+5
97.6%
Daetrich Harrington run for 5 yds to the LaLaf 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:36
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+12
97.6%
Marcus Williams Jr. run for 12 yds to the LaLaf 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:50
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+2
97.8%
Marcus Williams Jr. run for 2 yds to the LaLaf 23Similar
Q4 9:09
2ND & 8
OPP 23
+4
97.9%
Marcus Williams Jr. run for 4 yds to the LaLaf 19Similar
Q4 8:40
3RD & 4
OPP 19
+1
97.9%
Darrynton Evans run for 1 yd to the LaLaf 18Similar
Q4 8:12
4TH & 3
OPP 18
+35
99.3%
Chandler Staton 35 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 24TD
15 plays · 76 yds · 3:271% → 4%
Q4 7:45
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+3
98.9%
Levi Lewis pass complete to Nick Ralston for 3 yds to the LaLaf 27Similar
Q4 7:31
2ND & 7
OWN 27
+17
98.9%
Levi Lewis pass complete to Ja'Marcus Bradley for 17 yds to the LaLaf 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:09
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+2
99.0%
Levi Lewis run for 2 yds to the LaLaf 46Similar
Q4 6:41
2ND & 8
OWN 46
0
99.2%
Levi Lewis pass incomplete to Jalen WilliamsSimilar
Q4 6:26
3RD & 8
OWN 46
+9
99.2%
Levi Lewis pass complete to Calif Gossett for 9 yds to the AppSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:10
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+22
99.2%
Levi Lewis pass complete to Jarrod Jackson for 22 yds to the AppSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:40
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+8
99.0%
Levi Lewis pass complete to Neal Johnson for 8 yds to the AppSt 15Similar
Q4 5:28
2ND & 2
OPP 15
0
99.0%
Levi Lewis pass incomplete to Ja'Marcus BradleySimilar
Q4 5:20
3RD & 2
OPP 15
+2
99.1%
Raymond Calais run for 2 yds to the AppSt 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:11
1ST & 10
OPP 13
0
99.1%
Levi Lewis pass incomplete to Jamal BellSimilar
Q4 5:00
2ND & 10
OPP 13
+8
99.1%
Levi Lewis pass complete to Nick Ralston for 8 yds to the AppSt 5Similar
Q4 4:37
3RD & 2
OPP 5
+4
99.2%
Raymond Calais run for 4 yds to the AppSt 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:22
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
99.1%
Lewis, Levi pass incomplete to Bradley, Ja'Marcus, PENALTY APPALCHAN holding (Jean-Charles, Shemar) 0 yards to the APPALCHAN1, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN ULLAFAYTTE.Similar
Q4 4:18
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
96.2%
Elijah Mitchell run for 1 yd for a TD (Stevie Artigue KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 25DOWNS
7 plays · 6 yds · 1:3298% → 99%
Q4 4:00
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+5
97.5%
Darrynton Evans run for 5 yds to the LaLaf 37Similar
Q4 3:25
2ND & 5
OPP 37
+3
98.0%
Darrynton Evans run for 3 yds to the LaLaf 34Similar
Q4 2:36
4TH & 2
OPP 26
-2
97.9%
Zac Thomas pass complete to Henry Pearson for 8 yds to the LaLaf 26 APPALACHIAN ST Penalty, Illegal Block (-10 Yards) to the LaLaf 36Similar
Q4 2:35
3RD & 2
OPP 34
0
98.1%
Zac Thomas run for no gain to the LaLaf 34Similar
Q4 2:28
4TH & 4
OPP 36
0
98.6%
Zac Thomas pass incomplete to Malik WilliamsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 26TD
7 plays · 64 yds · 1:033% → 14%
Q4 2:22
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
97.1%
Levi Lewis pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:17
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+5
97.2%
Levi Lewis pass complete to Nick Ralston for 5 yds to the LaLaf 41Similar
Q4 2:02
3RD & 5
OWN 41
+5
97.2%
APPALACHIAN ST Penalty, Defensive Offside (Demetrius Taylor) to the LaLaf 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:41
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
97.2%
Levi Lewis pass incomplete to Jarrod JacksonSimilar
Q4 1:34
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+16
97.2%
Levi Lewis pass complete to Jalen Williams for 16 yds to the AppSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:27
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
96.8%
Levi Lewis pass incomplete to Jarrod JacksonSimilar
Q4 1:19
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+38
85.6%
Levi Lewis pass complete to Peter Leblanc for 38 yds for a TD LOUISIANA Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the AppSt 8 (Stevie Artigue KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 27END OF 4TH QUARTER
4 plays · -18 yds · 1:0896% → 96%
Q4 1:08
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-12
96.3%
Zac Thomas run for a loss of 12 yards to the AppSt 41Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 22
OWN 41
-6
96.1%
Zac Thomas run for a loss of 6 yards to the AppSt 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 4:13
Daetrich Harrington run for 25 yds for a TD (Chandler Staton KICK)
+12.4
TD · Q4 1:19
Levi Lewis pass complete to Peter Leblanc for 38 yds for a TD LOUISIANA Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the AppSt 8 (Stevie Artigue KICK)
-11.2
TD · Q2 8:13
Levi Lewis pass complete to Elijah Mitchell for 1 yd for a TD (Stevie Artigue KICK)
-9.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com