MRSH
Marshall 51 at Louisiana 54
UL2025 · Week 5 · Sep 28, 2025 · Cajun Field
Speed4x
Win probability · UL
modelUL aheadMRSH aheadconfidence bandkey play
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UL · Drive 1PUNT · 5 plays · 4 yds
Q1 15:00
Lorcan Quinn kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
48.9%
0.0
Q1 14:54
Zylan Perry run for 3 yds to the UL 28
51.9%
+3.0
Q1 14:26
Zylan Perry run for 1 yd to the UL 29
52.2%
+0.3
Q1 13:48
Daniel Beale pass incomplete to Charles Robertson
52.2%
0.0
Q1 13:38
Nathan Torney punt for 41 yds , Demarcus Lacey returns for 6 yds to the MRSH 36
51.9%
-0.3
MRSH · Drive 2FG · 9 plays · 29 yds
Q1 13:23
Carlos Del Rio-Wilson run for 9 yds to the MRSH 45
48.1%
-3.8
Q1 13:06
Michael Allen run for 10 yds to the UL 45 for a 1ST down
46.3%
-1.8
Q1 12:43
Demarcus Lacey run for 2 yds to the UL 43
45.8%
-0.5
Q1 12:24
Michael Allen run for a loss of 2 yards to the UL 45
45.6%
-0.1
Q1 11:48
Carlos Del Rio-Wilson pass complete to Demarcus Lacey for 11 yds to the UL 34 for a 1ST down
45.8%
+0.1
Q1 11:26
Michael Allen run for a loss of 2 yards to the UL 36
45.6%
-0.1
Q1 11:02
(11:05) No Huddle-Shotgun Del Rio-Wilson,Carlos pass incomplete short left to Allen,Michael thrown to UL 31 PENALTY MAR Holding (Montgomery,Tariq) 10 yards from UL 36 to UL 46. NO PLAY.
45.6%
0.0
Q1 6:46
Carlos Del Rio-Wilson pass complete to De'Andre Tamarez for 11 yds to the UL 35
45.8%
+4.0
Q1 6:46
Tony Sterner 26 Yd Field Goal
54.0%
+8.2
UL · Drive 3PUNT · 5 plays · 7 yds
Q1 9:52
Lorcan Quinn kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
36.0%
-9.6
Q1 8:27
Nathan Torney punt for 41 yds
42.7%
+6.7
Q1 6:46
Daniel Beale pass complete to Trey Miller for 8 yds to the UL 33
52.2%
-1.8
Q1 6:46
Daniel Beale pass incomplete to Trey Miller
52.2%
0.0
Q1 6:46
Bill Davis run for a loss of 1 yard to the UL 32
52.2%
0.0
UL · Drive 4FG · 5 plays · 16 yds
Q1 9:52
Lorcan Quinn 53 Yd Field Goal
41.8%
-0.9
Q1 6:46
Bill Davis run for 12 yds to the MRSH 13 for a 1ST down
54.7%
+2.5
Q1 6:42
Bill Davis run for 4 yds to the MRSH 9
54.7%
0.0
Q1 3:49
Daniel Beale pass incomplete to Rahji Dennis
54.9%
+0.2
Q1 3:49
Daniel Beale pass incomplete to Trey Miller
54.6%
-0.2
MRSH · Drive 5PUNT · 12 plays · 30 yds
Q1 2:13
Nathan Totten punt for 49 yds for a touchback
53.8%
-0.9
Q1 2:05
Tony Sterner kickoff for 59 yds , Xayvion Turner-Bradshaw return for 15 yds to the MRSH 21
59.0%
0.0
Q1 1:14
Carlos Del Rio-Wilson run for 6 yds to the MRSH 27
55.7%
-3.2
Q1 1:00
Michael Allen run for 4 yds to the MRSH 31 for a 1ST down
55.7%
0.0
Q1 0:53
Carlos Del Rio-Wilson pass complete to Michael Allen for 13 yds to the MRSH 44 for a 1ST down
55.7%
+1.8
Q1 0:53
Michael Allen run for 3 yds to the MRSH 47
54.0%
-1.8
Q1 0:48
Justin Williams-Thomas run for 5 yds to the UL 48
53.7%
-0.3
Q1 0:32
Carlos Del Rio-Wilson pass complete to Ben Turner for 3 yds to the UL 45 for a 1ST down
53.6%
-0.2
Q1 0:13
Carlos Del Rio-Wilson pass incomplete to Demarcus Lacey
53.6%
0.0
Q1 0:00
(00:00) No Huddle-Shotgun Lacey,Demarcus rush left for 7 yards gain to the UL 38 (Lawson,Jordan; Dugger,Jaden) PENALTY MAR Holding (Williams-Thomas,Justin) 10 yards from UL 45 to MAR45. NO PLAY.
53.6%
0.0
Q1 0:00
Carlos Del Rio-Wilson pass complete to Demarcus Lacey for 1 yd to the MRSH 46
54.1%
+0.5
Q1 0:00
Carlos Del Rio-Wilson pass complete to Adrian Norton for 5 yds to the UL 49
53.8%
-0.3
UL · Drive 6PUNT · 4 plays · -1 yds
Q1 2:13
Zylan Perry run for 4 yds to the UL 24
59.0%
+5.2
Q1 2:13
Daniel Beale sacked by Braydin Ward for a loss of 5 yards to the UL 19
59.0%
0.0
Q1 2:13
Daniel Beale pass incomplete to Jaydon Johnson
59.0%
0.0
Q1 1:00
Nathan Torney punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Demarcus Lacey at the MRSH 44
58.3%
+2.6
MRSH · Drive 7TD · 11 plays · 56 yds
Q1 1:00
Carlos Del Rio-Wilson pass incomplete to Adrian Norton
54.0%
-4.3
Q1 1:00
Tony Mathis Jr. run for 2 yds to the MRSH 46
54.0%
0.0
Q1 0:00
Carlos Del Rio-Wilson pass complete to Adrian Norton for 12 yds to the UL 42 for a 1ST down
53.8%
0.0
Q2 15:00
Carlos Del Rio-Wilson sacked by Courtline Flowers for a loss of 5 yards to the UL 47
53.2%
-0.6
Q2 14:06
Carlos Del Rio-Wilson run for 15 yds to the UL 32 for a 1ST down
53.6%
+0.4
Q2 13:46
Demarcus Lacey run for 3 yds to the UL 29
52.9%
-0.6
Q2 13:06
Carlos Del Rio-Wilson pass complete to Michael Allen for 9 yds to the UL 20 for a 1ST down
52.9%
0.0
Q2 12:51
Michael Allen run for no gain to the UL 20
52.9%
0.0
Q2 12:12
Carlos Del Rio-Wilson run for 4 yds to the UL 16
52.9%
0.0
Q2 11:34
Carlos Del Rio-Wilson run for 7 yds to the UL 9 for a 1ST down
52.9%
0.0
Q2 10:51
Michael Allen 9 Yd Run (Lorcan Quinn Kick)
30.8%
-22.2
UL · Drive 8TD · 10 plays · 75 yds
Q2 10:51
Lorcan Quinn kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
32.6%
+1.8
Q2 10:36
Daniel Beale pass complete to Landon Strother for 10 yds to the UL 35 for a 1ST down
36.3%
+3.7
Q2 10:07
Daniel Beale pass complete to Dale Martin for 11 yds to the UL 46 for a 1ST down
36.3%
0.0
Q2 9:40
Bill Davis run for 3 yds to the UL 49
36.9%
+0.6
Q2 8:55
Daniel Beale pass complete to Bill Davis for 16 yds to the MRSH 35 for a 1ST down
37.5%
+0.6
Q2 8:26
Bill Davis run for 10 yds to the MRSH 25 for a 1ST down
39.1%
+1.6
Q2 7:52
Bill Davis run for no gain to the MRSH 25
37.4%
-1.7
Q2 7:12
Daniel Beale run for 6 yds to the MRSH 19
37.4%
0.0
Q2 6:48
Timeout Marshall, clock 06:48
36.1%
-1.3
Q2 6:41
Zylan Perry 19 Yd Run (Tony Sterner Kick)
55.6%
+19.4
MRSH · Drive 9PUNT · 5 plays · -5 yds
Q2 6:41
Tony Sterner kickoff for 59 yds
53.6%
-2.0
Q2 6:31
Tony Mathis Jr. run for 1 yd to the MRSH 26
47.5%
-6.1
Q2 6:09
Carlos Del Rio-Wilson pass complete to Demarcus Lacey for 3 yds to the MRSH 29
47.5%
0.0
Q2 5:39
Marshall Penalty, Intentional Grounding (Carlos Del Rio-Wilson) to the MRSH 20
47.6%
+0.1
Q2 5:26
Nathan Totten punt for 44 yds
47.6%
0.0
UL · Drive 10TD · 12 plays · 64 yds
Q2 5:17
Steven Blanco run for 5 yds to the UL 41
53.9%
+6.4
Q2 4:44
Steven Blanco run for 5 yds to the UL 46 for a 1ST down
55.3%
+1.3
Q2 4:13
Daniel Beale pass incomplete to KeDarius Wade
55.3%
0.0
Q2 3:57
Daniel Beale pass complete to Rahji Dennis for 16 yds to the MRSH 38 for a 1ST down
55.3%
0.0
Q2 3:22
Daniel Beale pass complete to Landon Strother for 5 yds to the MRSH 33
56.6%
+1.3
Q2 2:42
(02:48) No Huddle-Shotgun Beale,Daniel pass incomplete short left to Strother,Landon thrown to MAR21 PENALTY MAR Roughing The Passer (Ward,Braydin) 15 yards from MAR33 to MAR18, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.
56.9%
+0.3
Q2 2:35
Bill Davis run for 1 yd to the MRSH 17
56.9%
0.0
Q2 2:00
Timeout Louisiana, clock 02:00
56.7%
-0.1
Q2 1:53
Bill Davis run for 8 yds to the MRSH 9
56.7%
0.0
Q2 1:48
Bill Davis run for 3 yds to the MRSH 6 for a 1ST down
56.5%
-0.2
Q2 1:48
Timeout Marshall, clock 01:48
56.7%
+0.2
Q2 1:43
Lunch Winfield 6 Yd Run (Tony Sterner Kick)
71.0%
+14.2
MRSH · Drive 11TD · 11 plays · 75 yds
Q2 1:43
Tony Sterner kickoff for 61 yds
69.9%
-1.1
Q2 1:34
Carlos Del Rio-Wilson pass complete to Demarcus Lacey for 7 yds to the MRSH 32
66.9%
-3.0
Q2 1:19
Carlos Del Rio-Wilson pass complete to Toby Payne for 5 yds to the MRSH 37 for a 1ST down
66.9%
0.0
Q2 1:08
Michael Allen run for 4 yds to the MRSH 41
67.4%
+0.5
Q2 0:52
Carlos Del Rio-Wilson pass complete to Toby Payne for 10 yds to the UL 49 for a 1ST down
66.6%
-0.8
Q2 0:42
Carlos Del Rio-Wilson pass complete to Toby Payne for 14 yds to the UL 35 for a 1ST down
65.9%
-0.7
Q2 0:41
Timeout Louisiana, clock 00:41
65.3%
-0.6
Q2 0:35
Carlos Del Rio-Wilson run for 3 yds to the UL 32
65.3%
0.0
Q2 0:32
Carlos Del Rio-Wilson pass incomplete to De'Andre Tamarez
65.3%
0.0
Q2 0:23
Demarcus Lacey 32 Yd pass from Carlos Del Rio-Wilson (Lorcan Quinn Kick)
45.5%
-19.8
Q2 0:23
PENALTY MAR False Start (Clary,Isaac) 5 yards from UL 03 to UL 08. NO PLAY.
45.5%
0.0
UL · Drive 12END OF HALF · 2 plays · 2 yds
Q2 0:19
Lorcan Quinn kickoff for 65 yds , Ja'Corian Norris return for 14 yds to the UL 14
48.4%
+2.8
Q2 0:00
Zylan Perry run for 2 yds to the UL 16
55.5%
+7.1
MRSH · Drive 13TD · 3 plays · 79 yds
Q3 14:55
Tony Sterner kickoff for 64 yds , Xayvion Turner-Bradshaw return for 20 yds to the MRSH 21
55.9%
+0.4
Q3 14:46
Carlos Del Rio-Wilson run for 11 yds to the MRSH 32 for a 1ST down
49.4%
-6.5
Q3 14:20
Michael Allen 68 Yd Run (Lorcan Quinn Kick)
27.7%
-21.7
UL · Drive 14INT TD · 7 plays · 28 yds
Q3 14:20
Lorcan Quinn kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
27.7%
0.0
Q3 14:07
Zylan Perry run for 3 yds to the UL 28
35.6%
+7.8
Q3 13:37
Daniel Beale run for 4 yds to the UL 32
35.6%
0.0
Q3 12:54
Daniel Beale pass complete to Brock Chappell for 6 yds to the MRSH 38 for a 1ST down Louisiana Penalty, Roughing The Passer (-15 Yards) to the MRSH 47 for a 1ST down
35.6%
+0.1
Q3 12:35
Zylan Perry run for 1 yd to the MRSH 46
37.4%
+1.8
Q3 11:56
Zylan Perry run for a loss of 1 yard to the MRSH 47
37.4%
0.0
Q3 11:11
Paul Hutson III 46 Yd Interception Return (Lorcan Quinn Kick)
18.2%
-19.3
UL · Drive 15INT · 3 plays · 0 yds
Q3 11:11
Lorcan Quinn kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
14.1%
-4.1
Q3 11:03
Bill Davis run for no gain to the UL 25
16.9%
+2.8
Q3 10:30
Daniel Beale pass intercepted Boogie Trotter return for no gain to the UL 41
16.9%
0.0
MRSH · Drive 16FG · 8 plays · 28 yds
Q3 10:21
Michael Allen run for 4 yds to the UL 37
13.8%
-3.1
Q3 9:47
Carlos Del Rio-Wilson run for 6 yds to the UL 31 for a 1ST down
13.6%
-0.2
Q3 9:19
Carlos Del Rio-Wilson pass complete to Demarcus Lacey for 3 yds to the UL 28
13.6%
0.0
Q3 8:58
Carlos Del Rio-Wilson pass complete to Adrian Norton for 8 yds to the UL 20 for a 1ST down
13.6%
0.0
Q3 8:40
Michael Allen run for 2 yds to the UL 18
13.6%
0.0
Q3 8:08
Carlos Del Rio-Wilson pass complete to Michael Allen for 4 yds to the UL 14
13.5%
-0.1
Q3 7:34
Carlos Del Rio-Wilson run for 1 yd to the UL 13
13.5%
0.0
Q3 6:55
Lorcan Quinn 30 Yd Field Goal
11.1%
-2.4
UL · Drive 17FG · 12 plays · 57 yds
Q3 6:55
Lorcan Quinn kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
11.6%
+0.5
Q3 6:49
Zylan Perry run for 2 yds to the UL 27
11.9%
+0.3
Q3 6:04
Lunch Winfield run for 30 yds to the MRSH 43 for a 1ST down
11.9%
0.0
Q3 5:27
Zylan Perry run for 5 yds to the MRSH 38
12.8%
+0.9
Q3 4:53
Bill Davis run for 2 yds to the MRSH 36
12.8%
0.0
Q3 4:11
Lunch Winfield run for 8 yds to the MRSH 28 for a 1ST down
12.9%
+0.1
Q3 3:37
Zylan Perry run for 9 yds to the MRSH 19
12.9%
0.0
Q3 3:01
Lunch Winfield run for 1 yd to the MRSH 18 for a 1ST down
12.9%
0.0
Q3 2:23
Lunch Winfield pass incomplete to Brock Chappell
12.9%
0.0
Q3 2:11
Bill Davis run for no gain to the MRSH 18
12.9%
0.0
Q3 1:36
Lunch Winfield pass incomplete to Brock Chappell
12.5%
-0.4
Q3 1:32
Tony Sterner 35 Yd Field Goal
14.4%
+1.9
MRSH · Drive 18MISSED FG · 8 plays · 30 yds
Q3 1:32
Logan Klotz kickoff for 46 yds
13.2%
-1.2
Q3 1:23
Carlos Del Rio-Wilson pass complete to Demarcus Lacey for 15 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down
13.6%
+0.3
Q3 0:55
Carlos Del Rio-Wilson run for 9 yds to the UL 41
13.2%
-0.3
Q3 0:00
Michael Allen run for 2 yds to the UL 39 for a 1ST down
12.7%
-0.5
Q4 14:53
Antwan Roberts run for 6 yds to the UL 33
12.7%
0.0
Q4 14:26
Antwan Roberts run for 1 yd to the UL 32
11.6%
-1.2
Q4 14:01
Michael Allen run for a loss of 3 yards to the UL 35
11.6%
0.0
Q4 13:19
Lorcan Quinn 52 yd FG MISSED
11.6%
0.0
UL · Drive 19TD · 7 plays · 65 yds
Q4 13:07
Lunch Winfield run for 38 yds to the MRSH 27 for a 1ST down
12.4%
+0.8
Q4 12:29
Bill Davis run for no gain to the MRSH 27
13.5%
+1.1
Q4 11:46
Bill Davis run for 3 yds to the MRSH 24
13.5%
0.0
Q4 11:06
Lunch Winfield run for 10 yds to the MRSH 14 for a 1ST down
12.9%
-0.6
Q4 10:28
Lunch Winfield pass incomplete to Dale Martin
11.3%
-1.6
Q4 10:22
(10:28) No Huddle-Shotgun Winfield,Lunch pass incomplete short right to Robertson,Charles thrown to MAR00, 1ST DOWN, PENALTY MAR Pass Interference (Myers,Marvae) 12 yards from MAR14 to MAR02, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.
11.3%
0.0
Q4 10:16
Lunch Winfield 2 Yd Run (Tony Sterner Kick)
31.6%
+20.3
MRSH · Drive 20PUNT · 8 plays · 6 yds
Q4 10:11
Logan Klotz kickoff for 64 yds , Xayvion Turner-Bradshaw return for 33 yds to the MRSH 34
29.0%
-2.6
Q4 9:58
Carlos Del Rio-Wilson run for 9 yds to the MRSH 43
22.0%
-7.0
Q4 9:36
Michael Allen run for 5 yds to the MRSH 48 for a 1ST down
21.0%
-1.0
Q4 9:05
(09:10) No Huddle-Shotgun Del Rio-Wilson,Carlos pass incomplete short middle to Tamarez,De'Andre thrown to UL 34 PENALTY MAR Ineligible Downfield on Pass (Richter,Christian) 5 yards from MAR48 to MAR43. NO PLAY.
21.0%
0.0
Q4 8:55
Carlos Del Rio-Wilson run for 3 yds to the MRSH 46
21.0%
0.0
Q4 8:16
Carlos Del Rio-Wilson run for 2 yds to the MRSH 48
19.1%
-1.9
Q4 7:40
Carlos Del Rio-Wilson sacked for a loss of 8 yards to the MRSH 40
19.1%
0.0
Q4 7:01
Nathan Totten punt for 41 yds , Landon Strother returns for no gain to the UL 19
19.4%
+0.2
UL · Drive 21TD · 6 plays · 81 yds
Q4 6:57
Lunch Winfield pass incomplete to Landon Strother
25.3%
+5.9
Q4 6:49
Zylan Perry run for a loss of 4 yards to the UL 15
25.3%
0.0
Q4 5:53
Lunch Winfield pass complete to Charles Robertson for 16 yds to the UL 31 for a 1ST down
25.1%
-0.2
Q4 5:27
Lunch Winfield run for 3 yds to the UL 34
24.7%
-0.3
Q4 4:50
Louisiana Penalty, Targeting (-15 Yards) to the MRSH 45 for a 1ST down
24.1%
-0.6
Q4 4:27
Charles Robertson 45 Yd pass from Lunch Winfield (Tony Sterner Kick)
60.7%
+36.6
MRSH · Drive 22TD · 10 plays · 71 yds
Q4 4:18
Logan Klotz kickoff for 64 yds , Xayvion Turner-Bradshaw return for 28 yds to the MRSH 29
59.2%
-1.5
Q4 4:10
Michael Allen run for 16 yds to the MRSH 45 for a 1ST down
50.4%
-8.8
Q4 3:34
Demarcus Lacey run for 6 yds to the UL 49
48.4%
-2.0
Q4 3:00
Carlos Del Rio-Wilson pass complete to Michael Allen for 7 yds to the UL 42 for a 1ST down
47.9%
-0.5
Q4 2:20
Carlos Del Rio-Wilson run for 6 yds to the UL 36
47.7%
-0.1
Q4 2:00
Timeout Louisiana, clock 02:00
46.4%
-1.3
Q4 1:51
Carlos Del Rio-Wilson run for 8 yds to the UL 28 for a 1ST down
45.3%
-1.1
Q4 1:07
Timeout Louisiana, clock 01:07
45.3%
0.0
Q4 1:06
Michael Allen run for 1 yd to the UL 27
45.3%
0.0
Q4 1:01
Demarcus Lacey 27 Yd pass from Carlos Del Rio-Wilson (Lorcan Quinn Kick)
13.2%
-32.1
UL · Drive 23TD · 11 plays · 75 yds
Q4 1:01
Lorcan Quinn kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
13.3%
+0.1
Q4 0:56
Lunch Winfield pass complete to Trey Miller for 10 yds to the UL 35 for a 1ST down
18.5%
+5.2
Q4 0:49
Lunch Winfield run for 6 yds to the UL 41
18.5%
0.0
Q4 0:44
Lunch Winfield pass incomplete to Trey Miller
18.5%
0.0
Q4 0:40
Lunch Winfield pass complete to Zylan Perry for 3 yds to the UL 44
18.5%
0.0
Q4 0:40
PENALTY MAR Offside (Rivera-Harvey,Jalil) 5 yards from UL 44 to UL 49, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.
18.5%
0.0
Q4 0:33
Lunch Winfield pass complete to Landon Strother for 12 yds to the MRSH 39 for a 1ST down
18.5%
0.0
Q4 0:31
Timeout Marshall, clock 00:31
19.5%
+1.0
Q4 0:23
Lunch Winfield pass complete to Zylan Perry for 15 yds to the MRSH 24 for a 1ST down
19.5%
0.0
Q4 0:23
Timeout Louisiana, clock 00:23
21.8%
+2.3
Q4 0:16
Dale Martin 24 Yd pass from Lunch Winfield (Tony Sterner Kick)
62.0%
+40.2
MRSH · Drive 24END OF GAME · 5 plays · 52 yds
Q4 0:16
Logan Klotz kickoff for 63 yds
59.8%
-2.2
Q4 0:11
Carlos Del Rio-Wilson run for 4 yds to the MRSH 29
48.2%
-11.7
Q4 0:06
Carlos Del Rio-Wilson pass incomplete to Toby Payne
48.2%
0.0
Q4 0:00
Michael Allen run for 11 yds to the MRSH 40 for a 1ST down
48.0%
-0.1
Q4 0:00
Carlos Del Rio-Wilson pass complete to Demarcus Lacey for 37 yds to the UL 23 for a 1ST down
47.1%
-0.9
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 0:16
Dale Martin 24 Yd pass from Lunch Winfield (Tony Sterner Kick)
+40.2
TD · Q4 4:27
Charles Robertson 45 Yd pass from Lunch Winfield (Tony Sterner Kick)
+36.6
TD · Q4 1:01
Demarcus Lacey 27 Yd pass from Carlos Del Rio-Wilson (Lorcan Quinn Kick)
-32.1