Try the model
UL

Louisiana 15 at Ole Miss 56

MISS
2014 · Week 3 · Sep 13, 2014 · Vaught-Hemingway Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · MISS
modelMISS aheadUL aheadconfidence bandkey playMISS scoreUL score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDFGFGTDTDTDTDTDSAFETYEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:00 · Eugene Brazley run for 1 yd to the Miss 16
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+46.5+23.30−23.3−46.5Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 3:45: Bo Wallace pass complete to Jaylen Walton for 40 yds for a TD, (Andrew Fletcher KICK) — MISS win probability +0.9 pts (now 96%) (top driver: MISS has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 12:37: Bo Wallace pass complete to Vince Sanders for 14 yds for a TD, (Andrew Fletcher KICK) — MISS win probability +1.8 pts (now 97%) (top driver: MISS has the ball).
  3. FG · Q2 1:55: Hunter Stover 32 yd FG GOOD — UL win probability +5.3 pts (now 6%) (top driver: UL has the ball).
  4. FG · Q2 0:09: Hunter Stover 20 yd FG GOOD — MISS win probability +0.9 pts (now 97%) (top driver: UL has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 10:30: Bo Wallace pass complete to Cody Core for 13 yds for a TD, (Andrew Fletcher KICK) — MISS win probability +1.3 pts (now 100%) (top driver: MISS has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MISS made the numbers' call on 4 of 5UL made the numbers' call on 4 of 9
  1. Q1 12:45MISS 4th & 4 at UL 44, tied
    Close callPunted · 94.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.6%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    94.5%−0.1
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    94.6%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:54UL 4th & 1 at UL 19, tied
    Close callPunted · 5.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.7%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 2:36UL 4th & 5 at UL 24, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.7%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.8%
    average punt
  4. Q2 11:27UL 4th & 1 at UL 34, down 21
    Close callPunted · 3.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.5%−0.2
    average punt
  5. Q2 10:03MISS 4th & 6 at MISS 39, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 96.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.6%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    96.7%
    average punt
  6. Q2 1:55UL 4th & 3 at MISS 15, down 28
    Close callKicked a field goal · 1.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.1%
    51% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    0.9%−0.2
    83% to make
    Punt
    -1.2%−2.3
    average punt
  7. Q2 0:09UL 4th & 4 at MISS 4, down 25
    Close callKicked a field goal · 2.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.9%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    2.8%−0.1
    93% to make
    Punt
    1.9%−0.9
    average punt
  8. Q3 11:15MISS 4th & 1 at UL 21, up 22
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 97.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    97.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    97.4%−0.4
    74% to make
    Punt
    96.3%−1.4
    average punt
  9. Q3 8:02UL 4th & 7 at UL 28, down 36
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.3%−0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.3%
    average punt
  10. Q4 14:44MISS 4th & 6 at MISS 39, up 36
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.8%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.8%
    average punt
  11. Q4 13:02UL 4th & 12 at UL 29, down 36
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.0%−0.1
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%
    average punt
  12. Q4 11:30MISS 4th & 1 at MISS 30, up 36
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    100.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    99.8%−0.2
    average punt
  13. Q4 2:36UL 4th & 1 at UL 34, down 43
    Close callPunted · 0.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.0%−<0.1
    average punt
  14. Q4 0:13UL 4th & 3 at UL 47, down 41
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.0%−<0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.0%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MISS made the numbers' call on 8 of 8UL made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 10:00MISS Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 3:45MISS Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 12:37MISS Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 7:08MISS Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 10:30MISS Touchdown, up 28 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 9:11MISS Touchdown, up 35 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 7:48MISS Touchdown, up 42 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 1:04UL Touchdown, down 37 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 5:16MISS Touchdown, up 42 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MISSDrive 1PUNT
6 plays · 31 yds · 2:0096% → 96%
Q1 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+25
96.1%
Bo Wallace pass complete to Vince Sanders for 25 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:20
1ST & 10
50
+6
96.1%
Jaylen Walton run for 6 yds to the LaLaf 44Similar
Q1 13:45
2ND & 4
OPP 44
0
96.0%
Jaylen Walton run for no gain to the LaLaf 44Similar
Q1 13:00
3RD & 4
OPP 44
0
95.9%
Bo Wallace run for no gain to the LaLaf 44Similar
Q1 12:45
4TH & 4
OPP 44
0
95.8%
Will Gleeson punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Elijah McGuire at the LaLaf 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:264% → 5%
Q1 12:20
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+2
95.7%
Terrance Broadway run for 2 yds to the LaLaf 12Similar
Q1 12:00
2ND & 8
OWN 12
+6
95.6%
Terrance Broadway pass complete to Jared Johnson for 6 yds to the LaLaf 18Similar
Q1 11:30
3RD & 2
OWN 18
+1
95.5%
Alonzo Harris run for 1 yd to the LaLaf 19Similar
Q1 10:54
4TH & 1
OWN 19
0
95.4%
Daniel Cadona punt for 54 yds, fair catch by Markell Pack at the Miss 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 3TD
3 plays · 73 yds · 0:3095% → 96%
Q1 10:30
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+1
95.3%
I'Tavius Mathers run for 1 yd to the Miss 28Similar
Q1 10:15
2ND & 9
OWN 28
+16
95.3%
Bo Wallace pass complete to Cody Core for 16 yds to the Miss 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:00
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+56
95.6%
I'Tavius Mathers run for 56 yds for a TD, (Andrew Fletcher KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 4FUMBLE
9 plays · 78 yds · 3:235% → 5%
Q1 9:40
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+5
95.5%
OLE MISS Penalty, Offside Defense (5 Yards) to the LaLaf 21Similar
Q1 9:20
1ST & 5
OWN 21
+39
95.4%
Elijah McGuire run for 39 yds to the Miss 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:40
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+4
95.2%
Al Riles run for 4 yds to the Miss 36Similar
Q1 8:20
2ND & 6
OPP 36
+9
95.2%
Terrance Broadway run for 9 yds to the Miss 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:35
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+6
95.0%
Terrance Broadway pass complete to Al Riles for 6 yds to the Miss 21Similar
Q1 7:15
2ND & 4
OPP 21
+9
94.9%
Terrance Broadway run for 9 yds to the Miss 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:17
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+6
94.7%
Alonzo Harris run for 6 yds to the Miss 6 Alonzo Harris fumbled, recovered by Miss Trae ElstonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 5TD
7 plays · 94 yds · 2:2995% → 96%
Q1 6:14
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+11
95.1%
Bo Wallace pass complete to Cody Core for 11 yds to the Miss 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:10
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+2
95.1%
Bo Wallace pass complete to Laquon Treadwell for 2 yds to the Miss 19Similar
Q1 5:55
2ND & 8
OWN 19
+16
95.0%
Bo Wallace pass complete to Vince Sanders for 16 yds to the Miss 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:15
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+15
95.0%
Bo Wallace pass complete to Vince Sanders for 15 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:40
1ST & 10
50
+6
95.0%
Bo Wallace pass complete to Markell Pack for 6 yds to the LaLaf 44Similar
Q1 4:15
2ND & 4
OPP 44
+4
95.0%
Jaylen Walton run for 4 yds to the LaLaf 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:45
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+40
95.9%
Bo Wallace pass complete to Jaylen Walton for 40 yds for a TD, (Andrew Fletcher KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:594% → 5%
Q1 3:35
1ST & 10
OWN 19
0
95.6%
Terrance Broadway pass incomplete to Jared JohnsonSimilar
Q1 3:10
2ND & 10
OWN 19
+5
95.6%
Elijah McGuire run for 5 yds to the LaLaf 24Similar
Q1 2:47
3RD & 5
OWN 24
0
95.6%
Terrance Broadway pass incomplete to Gabe FuselierSimilar
Q1 2:36
4TH & 5
OWN 24
+9
95.5%
Daniel Cadona punt for 54 yds , Markell Pack returns for 9 yds to the Miss 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 7TD
10 plays · 69 yds · 4:3396% → 97%
Q1 2:10
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
95.7%
I'Tavius Mathers run for no gain to the Miss 31Similar
Q1 1:50
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+30
95.7%
Bo Wallace pass complete to Laquon Treadwell for 30 yds to the LaLaf 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:00
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+17
95.8%
Bo Wallace pass complete to Markell Pack for 17 yds to the LaLaf 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:40
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+2
95.8%
Jaylen Walton run for 2 yds to the LaLaf 20Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 8
OPP 20
+2
95.8%
Bo Wallace run for 2 yds to the LaLaf 18Similar
Q2 14:30
3RD & 6
OPP 18
+7
95.7%
Bo Wallace pass complete to Vince Sanders for 7 yds to the LaLaf 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:00
1ST & 10
OPP 11
0
95.6%
Jordan Wilkins run for no gain to the LaLaf 11Similar
Q2 13:00
2ND & 10
OPP 11
-3
95.5%
Bo Wallace sacked by Justin Hamilton and Trae Johnson for a loss of 3 yards to the LaLaf 14Similar
Q2 12:37
3RD & 13
OPP 14
+14
97.3%
Bo Wallace pass complete to Vince Sanders for 14 yds for a TD, (Andrew Fletcher KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:333% → 3%
Q2 12:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
97.1%
Terrance Broadway pass complete to James Butler for 4 yds to the LaLaf 29Similar
Q2 11:59
2ND & 6
OWN 29
0
97.0%
Terrance Broadway pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:35
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+5
97.1%
Terrance Broadway run for 5 yds to the LaLaf 34Similar
Q2 11:27
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
97.0%
Daniel Cadona punt for 50 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Miss 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 9PUNT
7 plays · 23 yds · 1:1297% → 98%
Q2 11:15
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+8
97.3%
Bo Wallace pass complete to Jaylen Walton for 8 yds to the Miss 24Similar
Q2 11:00
2ND & 2
OWN 24
+11
97.4%
Bo Wallace pass complete to Quincy Adeboyejo for 11 yds to the Miss 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:47
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
97.4%
Bo Wallace pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:30
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+4
97.6%
Bo Wallace pass complete to Laquon Treadwell for 4 yds to the Miss 39Similar
Q2 10:15
3RD & 6
OWN 39
0
97.7%
Bo Wallace pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:03
4TH & 6
OWN 39
+3
97.7%
Will Gleeson punt for 46 yds , Elijah McGuire returns for 3 yds to the LaLaf 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 10INT
3 plays · 12 yds · 0:383% → 3%
Q2 10:03
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+5
97.2%
OLE MISS Penalty, Substitution Infraction (5 Yards) to the LaLaf 23Similar
Q2 9:45
1ST & 5
OWN 23
+7
97.1%
Elijah McGuire run for 7 yds to the LaLaf 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:25
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+27
97.1%
Terrance Broadway pass intercepted Senquez Golson return for 27 yds to the LaLaf 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 11TD
5 plays · 48 yds · 2:0798% → 99%
Q2 9:15
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+4
98.0%
Mark Dodson run for 4 yds to the LaLaf 44Similar
Q2 8:55
2ND & 6
OPP 44
0
98.0%
Mark Dodson run for no gain to the LaLaf 44 Mark Dodson fumbled, recovered by MissSimilar
Q2 8:30
3RD & 6
OPP 44
+11
98.0%
Bo Wallace pass complete to Quincy Adeboyejo for 11 yds to the LaLaf 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:30
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+9
98.0%
Bo Wallace pass complete to Quincy Adeboyejo for 9 yds to the LaLaf 24Similar
Q2 7:08
2ND & 1
OPP 24
+24
98.8%
Bo Wallace pass complete to Vince Sanders for 24 yds for a TD, (Andrew Fletcher KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 12FG
13 plays · 60 yds · 5:001% → 6%
Q2 6:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
99.1%
Alonzo Harris run for 10 yds to the LaLaf 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:25
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
99.0%
Alonzo Harris run for 5 yds to the LaLaf 40Similar
Q2 5:55
2ND & 5
OWN 40
+7
99.0%
Terrance Broadway pass complete to James Butler for 7 yds to the LaLaf 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:39
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
99.1%
Terrance Broadway pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:15
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+1
99.2%
Elijah McGuire run for 1 yd to the LaLaf 48Similar
Q2 4:45
3RD & 9
OWN 48
+18
99.2%
Terrance Broadway pass complete to Al Riles for 18 yds to the Miss 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:33
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
99.1%
Terrance Broadway pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:20
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+12
99.1%
Terrance Broadway pass complete to James Butler for 12 yds to the Miss 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:35
1ST & 10
OPP 22
-1
99.6%
Elijah McGuire run for a loss of 1 yard to the Miss 23Similar
Q2 3:00
2ND & 11
OPP 23
+3
99.3%
Terrance Broadway run for 3 yds to the Miss 20Similar
Q2 2:10
3RD & 8
OPP 20
+5
99.4%
Terrance Broadway pass complete to Larry Pettis for 5 yds to the Miss 15Similar
Q2 1:55
4TH & 3
OPP 15
+32
94.1%
Hunter Stover 32 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 13INT
8 plays · 21 yds · 1:0198% → 99%
Q2 1:35
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+2
98.4%
Jordan Wilkins run for 2 yds to the Miss 30Similar
Q2 1:22
2ND & 8
OWN 30
0
98.3%
Bo Wallace pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:15
3RD & 8
OWN 30
+9
98.3%
Bo Wallace pass complete to Vince Sanders for 9 yds to the Miss 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:10
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-5
98.6%
OLE MISS Penalty, Ineligible Downfield on Pass (-5 Yards) to the Miss 34Similar
Q2 0:47
1ST & 15
OWN 34
+15
98.6%
Bo Wallace pass complete to Vince Sanders for 15 yds to the Miss 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:34
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+13
98.7%
Bo Wallace pass intercepted Sean Thomas return for 28 yds to the OLEMISS 23 OLE MISS Penalty, Personal Foul (-15 Yards) to the Miss 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 14FG
5 plays · 20 yds · 0:186% → 3%
Q2 0:27
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+15
94.3%
Terrance Broadway pass complete to Elijah McGuire for 15 yds to the Miss 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:23
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
0
94.1%
TEAM pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:18
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+5
96.5%
Terrance Broadway pass complete to James Butler for 5 yds to the Miss 4Similar
Q2 0:14
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
0
96.5%
Terrance Broadway pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:09
4TH & GOAL
OPP 4
+20
97.4%
Hunter Stover 20 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 15END OF HALF
2 plays · -3 yds · 0:0098% → 98%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-3
98.3%
Jordan Wilkins run for a loss of 3 yards to the Miss 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 16INT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:542% → 2%
Q3 14:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
97.6%
Alonzo Harris run for 3 yds to the LaLaf 28Similar
Q3 14:00
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+3
97.6%
Alonzo Harris run for 3 yds to the LaLaf 31Similar
Q3 13:36
3RD & 4
OWN 31
0
97.6%
Terrance Broadway pass intercepted Mike Hilton return for no gain to the LaLaf 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 17TD
9 plays · 43 yds · 2:4098% → 100%
Q3 13:10
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+1
98.2%
Jaylen Walton run for 1 yd to the LaLaf 42Similar
Q3 12:45
2ND & 9
OPP 42
+12
98.3%
Bo Wallace pass complete to Laquon Treadwell for 12 yds to the LaLaf 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:10
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+5
98.3%
Jaylen Walton run for 5 yds to the LaLaf 25Similar
Q3 11:30
2ND & 5
OPP 25
+1
98.3%
Bo Wallace pass complete to Cody Core for 1 yd to the LaLaf 24Similar
Q3 11:29
3RD & 4
OPP 24
+3
98.3%
Bo Wallace run for 3 yds to the LaLaf 21Similar
Q3 11:15
4TH & 1
OPP 21
+8
98.2%
Jeremy Liggins run for 8 yds to the LaLaf 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:10
1ST & 10
OPP 13
0
98.3%
Jordan Wilkins run for no gain to the LaLaf 13Similar
Q3 10:40
2ND & 10
OPP 13
0
98.4%
Bo Wallace pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:30
3RD & 10
OPP 13
+13
99.7%
Bo Wallace pass complete to Cody Core for 13 yds for a TD, (Andrew Fletcher KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 18INT TD
5 plays · 31 yds · 1:040% → 0%
Q3 10:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
99.6%
Terrance Broadway pass complete to James Butler for 5 yds to the LaLaf 30Similar
Q3 9:50
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+24
99.6%
Terrance Broadway pass complete to C.J. Bates for 24 yds to the Miss 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:20
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+2
99.6%
Al Riles run for 2 yds to the Miss 44Similar
Q3 9:11
2ND & 8
OPP 44
+59
99.7%
Terrance Broadway pass intercepted for a TD Senquez Golson return for 59 yds for a TD, (Andrew Fletcher KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 19PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:430% → 0%
Q3 8:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
99.7%
Alonzo Harris run for 3 yds to the LaLaf 28Similar
Q3 8:20
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
99.7%
Terrance Broadway pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:13
3RD & 7
OWN 28
0
99.8%
Terrance Broadway pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:02
4TH & 7
OWN 28
+8
99.8%
Daniel Cadona punt for 51 yds , Markell Pack returns for 8 yds to the Miss 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 20TD
1 play · 71 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q3 7:48
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+71
99.8%
Jaylen Walton run for 71 yds for a TD, (Andrew Fletcher KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 21TD
16 plays · 75 yds · 6:260% → 0%
Q3 7:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
99.8%
Elijah McGuire run for 9 yds to the LaLaf 34Similar
Q3 7:00
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+4
99.8%
Elijah McGuire run for 4 yds to the LaLaf 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:20
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+4
99.8%
Elijah McGuire run for 4 yds to the LaLaf 42Similar
Q3 5:55
2ND & 6
OWN 42
+7
99.8%
Terrance Broadway pass complete to Jared Johnson for 7 yds to the LaLaf 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:15
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+3
99.8%
Terrance Broadway pass complete to Alonzo Harris for 3 yds to the Miss 48Similar
Q3 4:45
2ND & 7
OPP 48
+10
99.8%
Terrance Broadway run for 10 yds to the Miss 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:35
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
99.8%
Terrance Broadway pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:00
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+9
99.8%
Terrance Broadway pass complete to Larry Pettis for 9 yds to the Miss 29Similar
Q3 3:35
3RD & 1
OPP 29
+1
99.8%
Alonzo Harris run for 1 yd to the Miss 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:25
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
99.8%
Terrance Broadway pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:00
2ND & 10
OPP 28
+3
99.8%
Terrance Broadway pass complete to Elijah McGuire for 3 yds to the Miss 25Similar
Q3 2:45
3RD & 7
OPP 25
+8
99.9%
Terrance Broadway run for 8 yds to the Miss 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:00
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+8
99.9%
Alonzo Harris run for 8 yds to the Miss 9Similar
Q3 1:30
2ND & 2
OPP 9
+1
99.9%
Alonzo Harris run for 1 yd to the Miss 8Similar
Q3 1:04
3RD & 1
OPP 8
+8
99.8%
Alonzo Harris run for 8 yds for a TD, (Hunter Stover KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 22PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:56100% → 100%
Q3 0:40
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
99.8%
Mark Dodson run for no gain to the Miss 35Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+4
99.9%
Ryan Buchanan pass complete to Quincy Adeboyejo for 4 yds to the Miss 39Similar
Q4 14:56
3RD & 6
OWN 39
0
99.9%
Ryan Buchanan pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:44
4TH & 6
OWN 39
0
99.9%
Will Gleeson punt for 30 yds, downed at the LaLaf 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 23PUNT
4 plays · -2 yds · 1:130% → 0%
Q4 14:15
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
99.9%
Elijah McGuire run for no gain to the LaLaf 31Similar
Q4 13:45
2ND & 10
OWN 31
-2
99.9%
Elijah McGuire run for a loss of 2 yards to the LaLaf 29Similar
Q4 13:17
3RD & 12
OWN 29
0
99.9%
Terrance Broadway pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:02
4TH & 12
OWN 29
0
99.9%
Daniel Cadona punt for 50 yds, downed at the Miss 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 24TD
18 plays · 79 yds · 7:19100% → 100%
Q4 12:35
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
99.9%
DeVante Kincade run for no gain to the Miss 21Similar
Q4 12:17
2ND & 10
OWN 21
+6
99.9%
DeVante Kincade pass complete to Trey Bledsoe for 6 yds to the Miss 27Similar
Q4 12:00
3RD & 4
OWN 27
+3
99.9%
DeVante Kincade pass complete to Jeremy Liggins for 3 yds to the Miss 30Similar
Q4 11:30
4TH & 1
OWN 30
+2
99.9%
Jeremy Liggins run for 2 yds to the Miss 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:55
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+5
99.9%
DeVante Kincade pass complete to Markell Pack for 5 yds to the Miss 37Similar
Q4 10:30
2ND & 5
OWN 37
+5
99.9%
Eugene Brazley run for 5 yds to the Miss 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:00
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+17
99.9%
Eugene Brazley run for 17 yds to the LaLaf 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:30
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+6
99.9%
Eugene Brazley run for 6 yds to the LaLaf 35Similar
Q4 9:00
2ND & 4
OPP 35
0
99.9%
DeVante Kincade pass complete to Quintavius Burdette for no gain to the LaLaf 35Similar
Q4 8:30
3RD & 4
OPP 35
+6
99.9%
DeVante Kincade run for 6 yds to the LaLaf 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:00
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+5
99.9%
Eugene Brazley run for 5 yds to the LaLaf 24Similar
Q4 7:30
2ND & 5
OPP 24
+6
99.9%
DeVante Kincade pass complete to Quintavius Burdette for 6 yds to the LaLaf 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:15
1ST & 10
OPP 18
0
99.9%
DeVante Kincade pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 7:00
2ND & 10
OPP 18
+9
99.9%
DeVante Kincade run for 9 yds to the LaLaf 9Similar
Q4 6:50
3RD & 1
OPP 9
+3
99.9%
Mark Dodson run for 3 yds to the LaLaf 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+4
99.9%
Mark Dodson run for 4 yds to the LaLaf 2Similar
Q4 5:16
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
99.9%
Jeremy Liggins run for 2 yds for a TD, (Andrew Fletcher KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 25PUNT
7 plays · 19 yds · 2:090% → 0%
Q4 4:45
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+1
100.0%
Alonzo Harris run for 1 yd to the LaLaf 16Similar
Q4 4:15
2ND & 9
OWN 16
+9
100.0%
Alonzo Harris run for 9 yds to the LaLaf 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
100.0%
Terrance Broadway run for 4 yds to the LaLaf 29Similar
Q4 3:30
2ND & 6
OWN 29
0
100.0%
Terrance Broadway pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:00
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+5
100.0%
Terrance Broadway run for 5 yds to the LaLaf 34Similar
Q4 2:36
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
100.0%
Daniel Cadona punt for 61 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Miss 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 26SF
1 play · -5 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 2:25
1ST & 10
OWN 5
-5
100.0%
Eugene Brazley run for a loss of 5 yards for a SAFETYSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 27PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 1:420% → 0%
Q4 1:55
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+2
100.0%
Alonzo Harris run for 2 yds to the LaLaf 42Similar
Q4 1:20
2ND & 8
OWN 42
+1
100.0%
Alonzo Harris run for 1 yd to the LaLaf 43Similar
Q4 0:40
3RD & 7
OWN 43
+4
100.0%
Terrance Broadway run for 4 yds to the LaLaf 47Similar
Q4 0:13
4TH & 3
OWN 47
0
100.0%
Daniel Cadona punt for 38 yds, downed at the Miss 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 28END OF GAME
1 play · 1 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+1
100.0%
Eugene Brazley run for 1 yd to the Miss 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
FG · Q2 1:55
Hunter Stover 32 yd FG GOOD
-5.3
TD · Q2 12:37
Bo Wallace pass complete to Vince Sanders for 14 yds for a TD, (Andrew Fletcher KICK)
+1.8
TD · Q3 10:30
Bo Wallace pass complete to Cody Core for 13 yds for a TD, (Andrew Fletcher KICK)
+1.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com