2021 · Week 9 · Oct 30, 2021 · Cajun Field
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Win probability · UL
modelUL aheadTXST aheadconfidence bandkey playUL scoreTXST score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 8:57 · Chandler Fields pass complete to Michael Jefferson for 21 yds to the TexSt 11 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorBlowout marginScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 14:55: Chris Smith 2 Yd pass from Levi Lewis (Nate Snyder Kick) — UL win probability +1.6 pts (now 90%) (top driver: UL has the ball).
- TD · Q2 3:06: Hunter Bergeron 1 Yd pass from Levi Lewis (Nate Snyder Kick) — UL win probability +3.6 pts (now 92%) (top driver: UL has the ball).
- FG · Q2 0:01: Nate Snyder 45 Yd Field Goal — UL win probability +0.1 pts (now 95%) (top driver: UL has the ball).
- FG · Q3 11:38: Nate Snyder 32 Yd Field Goal — UL win probability +3.4 pts (now 97%) (top driver: UL has the ball).
- TD · Q3 4:50: L. Lewis pass,to J. Williams for 3 yds for a TD, (L. Lewis pass to P. LeBlanc for Two-Point Conversion) — UL win probability +1.8 pts (now 100%) (top driver: UL has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
UL made the numbers' call on 9 of 9TXST made the numbers' call on 6 of 8
- Q1 13:25UL 4th & 8 at TXST 27, tiedAgrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 90.6% before the snapGo for it90.5%−<0.133% to convertField goalTheir call90.6%62% to makePunt90.2%−0.4average punt
- Q1 9:51TXST 4th & 4 at UL 47, tiedClose callPunted · 10.5% before the snapGo for it10.6%48% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call10.6%−<0.1average punt
- Q1 8:19UL 4th & 8 at UL 18, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 88.8% before the snapGo for it88.8%−0.132% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call88.9%average punt
- Q1 5:20TXST 4th & 7 at TXST 49, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 12.0% before the snapGo for it12.0%−<0.137% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call12.0%average punt
- Q2 14:55UL 4th & 2 at TXST 2, tiedAgrees with the numbersWent for it · 86.4% before the snapGo for itTheir call86.5%48% to convertField goal86.3%−0.394% to makePunt85.1%−1.4average punt
- Q2 11:07UL 4th & 4 at UL 12, up 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 87.3% before the snapGo for it87.3%−0.147% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call87.3%average punt
- Q2 11:07TXST 4th & 1 at UL 41, down 7Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 12.7% before the snapGo for itTheir call12.7%70% to convertField goal11.5%−1.232% to makePunt11.6%−1.0average punt
- Q2 6:27TXST 4th & 6 at UL 32, down 7Close callKicked a field goal · 13.3% before the snapGo for it13.1%40% to convertField goalTheir call12.9%−0.251% to makePunt12.3%−0.7average punt
- Q2 1:52TXST 4th & 6 at TXST 33, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.8% before the snapGo for it8.7%−0.239% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call8.8%average punt
- Q2 0:30UL 4th & 1 at UL 40, up 14Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 91.4% before the snapGo for itTheir call91.3%70% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt91.2%−0.1average punt
- Q3 11:38UL 4th & 8 at TXST 15, up 17Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 93.8% before the snapGo for it93.0%−0.531% to convertField goalTheir call93.5%83% to makePunt89.9%−3.6average punt
- Q3 7:09TXST 4th & 3 at UL 49, down 20Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 2.7% before the snapGo for itTheir call3.0%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt2.7%−0.3average punt
- Q3 3:12TXST 4th & 10 at TXST 25, down 28Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snapGo for it0.2%−0.128% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.3%average punt
- Q4 14:44UL 4th & 18 at TXST 20, up 35Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.8% before the snapGo for it99.7%−0.212% to convertField goalTheir call99.8%75% to makePunt99.4%−0.4average punt
- Q4 8:57TXST 4th & 17 at UL 47, down 38Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.0%−0.114% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.1%average punt
- Q4 8:57UL 4th & 6 at TXST 32, up 38Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call99.9%40% to convertField goal99.9%−<0.151% to makePunt99.8%−0.1average punt
- Q4 0:59UL 4th & 2 at TXST 3, up 38Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 100.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call99.9%49% to convertField goal99.9%−<0.193% to makePunt99.5%−0.4average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UL made the numbers' call on 3 of 5
- Q2 14:55UL Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call88.1%97% to makeGo for two88.1%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 3:06UL Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call91.3%97% to makeGo for two91.2%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 4:50UL Touchdown, up 26 before the tryClose callWent for two · convertedKick99.8%97% to makeGo for twoTheir call99.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 1:10UL Touchdown, up 34 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.9%97% to makeGo for two99.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 0:59UL Touchdown, up 44 before the tryClose callKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%−<0.197% to makeGo for two100.0%45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartTXSTDrive 1FUMBLE1 play · 4 yds · 0:008% → 8%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 2MISSED FG5 plays · 2 yds · 1:2892% → 92%
Q1 14:53
3RD & 11
OPP 30
+3
92.2%
Levi Lewis pass complete to Chris Smith for 3 yds to the TexSt 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 3PUNT8 plays · 26 yds · 3:348% → 9%
Q1 13:25
3RD & 7
OWN 30
+17
91.8%
Tyler Vitt pass complete to Marcell Barbee for 17 yds to the TexSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 4PUNT4 plays · 2 yds · 1:3291% → 90%
Q1 8:19
4TH & 8
OWN 18
0
90.3%
Rhys Byrns punt for 47 yds , Rontavious Groves returns for no gain to the TexSt 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 5PUNT7 plays · 14 yds · 2:5910% → 11%
ULDrive 6TD14 plays · 86 yds · 5:2589% → 90%
Q1 5:20
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+6
89.3%
Levi Lewis pass complete to Peter LeBlanc for 6 yds to the LaLaf 32Similar
Q1 5:20
3RD & 4
OWN 32
+16
89.2%
Levi Lewis pass complete to Peter LeBlanc for 16 yds to the LaLaf 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:20
2ND & 4
OPP 14
+7
89.8%
Levi Lewis pass complete to Dontae Fleming for 7 yds to the TexSt 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:20
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+5
89.7%
Levi Lewis pass complete to Peter LeBlanc for 5 yds to the TexSt 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 7FUMBLE5 plays · 69 yds · 2:2111% → 12%
Q2 12:34
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+23
87.6%
Brock Sturges run for 23 yds to the LaLaf 6 fumbled, recovered by LaLaf Kam PedescleauxSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 8PUNT4 plays · 6 yds · 1:2789% → 88%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 9MISSED FG8 plays · 18 yds · 4:4012% → 13%
ULDrive 10TD8 plays · 63 yds · 3:2188% → 92%
TXSTDrive 11PUNT6 plays · 17 yds · 1:079% → 8%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 12FG9 plays · 41 yds · 1:5193% → 95%
Q2 1:52
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+5
92.9%
Levi Lewis pass complete to Errol Rogers Jr. for 5 yds to the LaLaf 36Similar
Q2 1:52
2ND & 5
OWN 36
-10
92.9%
SMITH, Chris rush to the left for a gain of 42 yards to the TXS22 (LEFEGED JR., Troy). PENALTY LA Holding on VALLOT, Shane enforced 10 yards from the LA 36 to the LA 26 [NH]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 0:30
3RD & 7
OWN 34
+6
94.0%
Levi Lewis pass complete to Neal Johnson for 6 yds to the LaLaf 40Similar
Q2 0:30
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+15
94.7%
Levi Lewis pass complete to Montrell Johnson for 15 yds to the TexSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:30
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+9
94.7%
Levi Lewis pass complete to Neal Johnson for 9 yds to the TexSt 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 13FG8 plays · 60 yds · 3:2294% → 97%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
93.8%
Levi Lewis pass complete to Kyren Lacy for 10 yds to the LaLaf 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 39
+8
94.0%
Levi Lewis pass complete to Pearse Migl for 8 yds to the LaLaf 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+36
94.1%
Levi Lewis pass complete to Dontae Fleming for 36 yds to the TexSt 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 14DOWNS7 plays · 35 yds · 4:223% → 3%
Q3 11:31
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+12
96.5%
Tyler Vitt pass complete to Javen Banks for 12 yds to the TexSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 15TD6 plays · 51 yds · 2:1998% → 100%
Q3 7:09
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+35
97.9%
Levi Lewis pass complete to Errol Rogers Jr. for 35 yds to the TexSt 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:09
2ND & 4
OPP 10
+4
97.9%
Levi Lewis pass complete to Errol Rogers Jr. for 4 yds to the TexSt 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:50
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
99.7%
L. Lewis pass,to J. Williams for 3 yds for a TD, (L. Lewis pass to P. LeBlanc for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 16PUNT5 plays · 0 yds · 1:380% → 0%
Q3 4:50
2ND & 9
OWN 26
-1
99.7%
Tyler Vitt pass complete to Ashtyn Hawkins for a loss of 1 yard to the TexSt 25Similar
Q3 3:12
4TH & 10
OWN 25
+16
99.8%
Seamus O'Kelly punt for 45 yds , Eric Garror returns for 16 yds to the LaLaf 46Similar
Q3 3:12
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+15
99.8%
LEWIS, Levi pass to the left incomplete intended for JEFFERSON, Michael thrown to the TXS17. PENALTY TXS Pass Interference on WILLIAMS, DC enforced 15 yards to the TXS39 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 17TD6 plays · 54 yds · 2:02100% → 100%
Q3 3:12
2ND & 9
OPP 38
+15
99.8%
Levi Lewis pass complete to Johnny Lumpkin for 15 yds to the TexSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 18INT2 plays · 1 yds · 0:510% → 0%
ULDrive 19FG4 plays · -8 yds · 0:16100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 20PUNT8 plays · 28 yds · 5:470% → 0%
Q4 14:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
99.9%
Tyler Vitt pass complete to Caleb Twyford for 3 yds to the TexSt 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 21TD13 plays · 88 yds · 7:58100% → 100%
Q4 8:57
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+11
99.9%
Chandler Fields pass complete to Pearse Migl for 11 yds to the LaLaf 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:57
2ND & 5
OWN 41
-15
99.9%
LOUISIANA Penalty, Personal Foul (-15 Yards) to the TexSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:57
4TH & 6
OPP 32
+21
99.9%
Chandler Fields pass complete to Michael Jefferson for 21 yds to the TexSt 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 3:06
Hunter Bergeron 1 Yd pass from Levi Lewis (Nate Snyder Kick)
+3.6
FG · Q3 11:38
Nate Snyder 32 Yd Field Goal
+3.4
TD · Q3 4:50
L. Lewis pass,to J. Williams for 3 yds for a TD, (L. Lewis pass to P. LeBlanc for Two-Point Conversion)
+1.8