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UL

Louisiana 14 at James Madison 24

JMU
2025 · Week 7 · Oct 11, 2025 · Bridgeforth Stadium
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Win probability · JMU
modelJMU aheadUL aheadconfidence bandkey playJMU scoreUL score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 0:04 · Nathan Torney punt for 21 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the UL 25
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+40.0+20.00−20.0−40.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 141Pregame prior+12.3Home team on offense−1.7Garbage-time factor+0.1Score differential−3.5Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−2.0Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+1.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 8:33: Lunch Winfield pass complete to Brock Chappell for 5 yds for a TD (Tony Sterner KICK) — UL win probability +6.6 pts (now 26%) (top driver: UL has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 4:47: Alonza Barnett III pass complete to Landon Ellis for 4 yds for a TD (Morgan Suarez KICK) — JMU win probability +8.7 pts (now 82%) (top driver: JMU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 3:16: Lunch Winfield pass complete to Dale Martin for 69 yds for a TD (Tony Sterner KICK) — UL win probability +9.8 pts (now 32%) (top driver: UL has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 14:46: Alonza Barnett III pass complete to Landon Ellis for 62 yds for a TD (Morgan Suarez KICK) — JMU win probability +16.0 pts (now 79%) (top driver: JMU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 12:33: Alonza Barnett III pass complete to Landon Ellis for 4 yds for a TD (Morgan Suarez KICK) — JMU win probability +15.8 pts (now 89%) (top driver: JMU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
JMU made the numbers' call on 5 of 7UL made the numbers' call on 5 of 11
  1. Q1 13:32UL 4th & 6 at UL 29, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.8%−<0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.9%
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:06UL 4th & 3 at UL 40, tied
    Close callPunted · 13.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.6%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    13.6%−<0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 0:00JMU 4th & 2 at UL 10, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 84.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    84.0%
    55% to convert
    Field goal
    83.8%−0.2
    88% to make
    Punt
    82.5%−1.5
    average punt
  4. Q2 13:35UL 4th & 2 at UL 17, tied
    Close callPunted · 16.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.9%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.8%−0.1
    average punt
  5. Q2 12:35JMU 4th & 10 at UL 42, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 82.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.5%−<0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    82.4%−0.2
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    82.6%
    average punt
  6. Q2 6:48UL 4th & 10 at JMU 34, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 28.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.1%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    28.2%
    47% to make
    Punt
    27.5%−0.6
    average punt
  7. Q2 1:50JMU 4th & 13 at JMU 33, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 65.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.5%−1.9
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    65.4%
    average punt
  8. Q2 1:24UL 4th & 2 at UL 33, up 7
    Close callPunted · 35.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.6%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    35.6%−<0.1
    average punt
  9. Q2 1:24UL 4th & 2 at UL 33, up 7
    Close callPunted · 35.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.6%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    35.6%−<0.1
    average punt
  10. Q2 0:41JMU 4th & 3 at UL 30, down 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 67.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.1%
    52% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    67.0%−0.1
    56% to make
    Punt
    64.3%−2.8
    average punt
  11. Q3 12:47UL 4th & 2 at UL 48, tied
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.1 ptsPunted · 27.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.1%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.0%−1.1
    average punt
  12. Q3 5:59UL 4th & 12 at UL 34, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.2%−3.2
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.4%
    average punt
  13. Q3 2:07JMU 4th & 12 at UL 38, tied
    Close callPunted · 68.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.8%−0.6
    24% to convert
    Field goal
    68.4%
    38% to make
    PuntTheir call
    68.3%−0.1
    average punt
  14. Q3 0:04UL 4th & 9 at UL 4, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.4%−4.4
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.8%
    average punt
  15. Q4 10:51UL 4th & 5 at UL 30, down 7
    Close callPunted · 13.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.9%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.7%−0.2
    average punt
  16. Q4 8:15JMU 4th & 8 at JMU 36, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 88.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.4%−1.6
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    89.0%
    average punt
  17. Q4 6:08UL 4th & 16 at UL 13, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.7%−2.3
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    10.0%
    average punt
  18. Q4 3:05JMU 4th & 5 at UL 5, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 93.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.6%−0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    92.7%
    92% to make
    Punt
    88.2%−4.5
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
JMU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3UL made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q2 8:33UL Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    25.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    25.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 4:47JMU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    76.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    76.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 3:16UL Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    30.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    30.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 14:46JMU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    73.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    73.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 12:33JMU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    80.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    80.3%−0.5
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ULDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 1:2110% → 11%
Q1 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
89.7%
Lunch Winfield pass incomplete to Robert WilliamsSimilar
Q1 14:45
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+6
89.7%
Bill Davis run for 6 yds to the UL 31Similar
Q1 13:58
3RD & 4
OWN 31
-2
89.5%
Lunch Winfield run for a loss of 2 yards to the UL 29Similar
Q1 13:32
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
89.4%
Nathan Torney punt for 56 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JMUDrive 2FUMBLE
8 plays · 52 yds · 3:2689% → 89%
Q1 13:23
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+8
89.3%
Alonza Barnett III pass complete to Logan Kyle for 8 yds to the JMU 23Similar
Q1 12:55
2ND & 2
OWN 23
+3
89.2%
Wayne Knight run for 3 yds to the JMU 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:18
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+8
89.0%
Alonza Barnett III pass complete to Wayne Knight for 8 yds to the JMU 34Similar
Q1 11:42
2ND & 2
OWN 34
+4
88.9%
Alonza Barnett III pass complete to Landon Ellis for 4 yds to the JMU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:25
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+1
88.8%
Wayne Knight run for 1 yd to the JMU 39Similar
Q1 10:54
2ND & 9
OWN 39
0
88.7%
Alonza Barnett III pass incomplete to George PettawaySimilar
Q1 10:41
3RD & 9
OWN 39
+41
88.5%
Alonza Barnett III pass complete to Braeden Wisloski for 31 yds to the UL 30 for a 1ST down Louisiana Penalty, Illegal Block (10 Yards) to the UL 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:57
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+7
88.6%
Alonza Barnett III pass complete to Jaylan Sanchez for 7 yds Jaylan Sanchez fumbled, recovered by UL Brent Gordon Jr.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:4312% → 12%
Q1 9:49
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+1
88.2%
Steven Blanco run for 1 yd to the UL 34Similar
Q1 9:09
2ND & 9
OWN 34
+6
88.0%
Lunch Winfield pass complete to Robert Williams for 6 yds to the UL 40Similar
Q1 8:36
3RD & 3
OWN 40
0
87.6%
Lunch Winfield run for no gain to the UL 40Similar
Q1 8:06
4TH & 3
OWN 40
0
87.7%
Nathan Torney punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Wayne Knight at the JMU 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JMUDrive 4DOWNS
16 plays · 71 yds · 8:0188% → 85%
Q1 8:01
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+6
87.6%
Jordan Fuller run for 6 yds to the JMU 26Similar
Q1 7:26
2ND & 4
OWN 26
+5
87.5%
Jordan Fuller run for 5 yds to the JMU 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:45
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+5
87.3%
Alonza Barnett III pass complete to Braeden Wisloski for 5 yds to the JMU 36Similar
Q1 6:17
2ND & 5
OWN 36
+10
87.3%
Jordan Fuller run for 10 yds to the JMU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:35
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+8
87.2%
Alonza Barnett III pass complete to Jaylan Sanchez for 8 yds to the UL 46Similar
Q1 5:00
2ND & 2
OPP 46
+1
87.2%
Wayne Knight run for 1 yd to the UL 45Similar
Q1 4:17
3RD & 1
OPP 45
+5
86.9%
Alonza Barnett III run for 5 yds to the UL 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:46
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
86.8%
Alonza Barnett III pass incomplete to Braeden WisloskiSimilar
Q1 3:40
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+9
86.8%
Wayne Knight run for 9 yds to the UL 31Similar
Q1 3:04
3RD & 1
OPP 31
+2
86.5%
Jordan Fuller run for 2 yds to the UL 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:16
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+5
86.6%
Alonza Barnett III pass complete to Landon Ellis for 5 yds to the UL 24Similar
Q1 1:40
2ND & 5
OPP 24
+6
86.4%
Wayne Knight run for 6 yds to the UL 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:06
1ST & 10
OPP 18
0
86.2%
Alonza Barnett III pass incomplete to Nick DeGennaroSimilar
Q1 0:58
2ND & 10
OPP 18
+4
86.2%
Wayne Knight run for 4 yds to the UL 14Similar
Q1 0:22
3RD & 6
OPP 14
+4
85.8%
Matthew Sluka run for 4 yds to the UL 10Similar
Q1 0:00
4TH & 2
OPP 10
+1
85.2%
Jordan Fuller run for 1 yd to the UL 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:1816% → 16%
Q2 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+6
84.5%
Lunch Winfield run for 6 yds to the UL 15Similar
Q2 14:23
2ND & 4
OWN 15
0
84.1%
Lunch Winfield pass incomplete to Jaydon JohnsonSimilar
Q2 14:13
3RD & 4
OWN 15
+2
84.4%
Lunch Winfield run for 2 yds to the UL 17Similar
Q2 13:35
4TH & 2
OWN 17
+16
84.4%
Nathan Torney punt for 41 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the UL 42 , Wayne Knight returns for 16 yds to the UL 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JMUDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:5485% → 84%
Q2 13:29
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
85.3%
Wayne Knight run for no gain to the UL 42Similar
Q2 12:49
2ND & 10
OPP 42
0
85.0%
Alonza Barnett III pass incomplete to Wayne KnightSimilar
Q2 12:45
3RD & 10
OPP 42
0
84.6%
Alonza Barnett III pass incomplete to Landon EllisSimilar
Q2 12:35
4TH & 10
OPP 42
0
83.8%
Patrick Rea punt for 42 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 7TD
10 plays · 80 yds · 3:5617% → 26%
Q2 12:29
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+8
83.3%
Lunch Winfield run for 8 yds to the UL 28Similar
Q2 11:42
2ND & 2
OWN 28
+40
82.5%
Lunch Winfield pass complete to Robert Williams for 40 yds to the JMU 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:14
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+3
81.2%
Bill Davis run for 3 yds to the JMU 29Similar
Q2 10:43
2ND & 7
OPP 29
+15
80.8%
(10:45) No Huddle-Shotgun Winfield,Lunch pass incomplete short right to Chappell,Brock thrown to JMU30 PENALTY JMU Roughing The Passer (West,Sahir) 15 yards from JMU29 to JMU14, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 10:43
1ST & 10
OPP 14
-5
80.8%
PENALTY UL False Start (Isom,Jakoby) 5 yards from JMU14 to JMU19. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 10:35
1ST & 15
OPP 19
+2
80.9%
Lunch Winfield run for 2 yds to the JMU 17Similar
Q2 9:51
2ND & 13
OPP 17
+1
80.5%
Bill Davis run for 1 yd to the JMU 16Similar
Q2 9:51
3RD & 12
OPP 16
+11
81.0%
(09:18) No Huddle-Shotgun Winfield,Lunch pass intercepted by Culp,Elijah at JMU02 PENALTY JMU Pass Interference (Culp,Elijah) 11 yard from JMU16 to JMU05, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 8:33
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
74.4%
Lunch Winfield pass complete to Brock Chappell for 5 yds for a TD (Tony Sterner KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JMUDrive 8FUMBLE
3 plays · 17 yds · 0:4476% → 75%
Q2 8:28
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+6
76.3%
Alonza Barnett III pass complete to Braeden Wisloski for 6 yds to the JMU 22Similar
Q2 7:44
2ND & 4
OWN 22
+11
75.3%
Alonza Barnett III run for 11 yds to the JMU 34 Alonza Barnett III fumbled, recovered by UL Ashley WilliamsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 9MISSED FG
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:5628% → 27%
Q2 7:44
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
72.5%
Steven Blanco run for no gain to the JMU 34Similar
Q2 7:44
2ND & 10
OPP 34
0
72.6%
Lunch Winfield pass incomplete to Dale MartinSimilar
Q2 7:44
3RD & 10
OPP 34
0
72.9%
Lunch Winfield pass incomplete to Trey MillerSimilar
Q2 6:48
4TH & 10
OPP 34
+10
73.1%
Tony Sterner 51 yd FG BLOCKED blocked by Justin Eaglin Sterner,Tony field goal attempt from 51 yards NO GOOD blocked by Eaglin,Justin (H: Torney,Nathan, LS: Sims,Hunter), clock 06:48 recovered by JMU Hendrick,Trent at JMU30 Hendrick,Trent return 10 yards to the JMU40 (Williams,Bryant). , Trent Hendrick return for 10 yds to the JMU 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JMUDrive 10TD
6 plays · 60 yds · 2:0175% → 82%
Q2 6:48
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+4
75.3%
Wayne Knight run for 4 yds to the JMU 44Similar
Q2 6:48
2ND & 6
OWN 44
+49
75.7%
Wayne Knight run for 49 yds to the UL 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:13
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+3
75.9%
Jordan Fuller run for 3 yds to the UL 4Similar
Q2 4:51
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
0
75.7%
Alonza Barnett III pass incomplete to Landon EllisSimilar
Q2 4:47
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
82.1%
Alonza Barnett III pass complete to Landon Ellis for 4 yds for a TD (Morgan Suarez KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 11TD
4 plays · 75 yds · 1:2522% → 32%
Q2 4:41
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
78.3%
Bill Davis run for 1 yd to the UL 26Similar
Q2 3:55
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+5
77.9%
Lunch Winfield pass complete to Charles Robertson for 5 yds to the UL 31Similar
Q2 3:16
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+69
68.1%
Lunch Winfield pass complete to Dale Martin for 69 yds for a TD (Tony Sterner KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JMUDrive 12PUNT
7 plays · 8 yds · 1:1669% → 66%
Q2 3:06
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
69.1%
Alonza Barnett III pass complete to Wayne Knight for 11 yds to the JMU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:41
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
69.2%
Wayne Knight run for 2 yds to the JMU 38Similar
Q2 2:04
2ND & 8
OWN 38
0
68.8%
Alonza Barnett III pass incomplete to Lacota DippreSimilar
Q2 2:04
3RD & 8
OWN 38
-5
68.0%
(02:03) PENALTY JMU Delay Of Game (Barnett III,Alonza) 5 yards from JMU38 to JMU33. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 1:58
3RD & 13
OWN 33
0
66.6%
Alonza Barnett III pass incomplete to Wayne KnightSimilar
Q2 1:50
4TH & 13
OWN 33
0
65.9%
Patrick Rea punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Robert Williams at the UL 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 13PUNT
7 plays · 8 yds · 0:2034% → 35%
Q2 1:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
65.9%
Darrell Smith run for no gain to the UL 25Similar
Q2 1:40
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+4
65.9%
Bill Davis run for 4 yds to the UL 29Similar
Q2 1:33
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+4
65.3%
Lunch Winfield run for 4 yds to the UL 33Similar
Q2 1:24
4TH & 2
OWN 33
+7
65.1%
Nathan Torney punt for 46 yds for a 1ST down , Wayne Knight returns for 7 yds to the JMU 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:24
4TH & 2
OWN 33
+7
65.1%
Nathan Torney punt for 46 yds for a 1ST down , Wayne Knight returns for 7 yds to the JMU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JMUDrive 14MISSED FG
5 plays · 27 yds · 0:4369% → 68%
Q2 1:24
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+20
68.6%
Alonza Barnett III pass complete to Logan Kyle for 20 yds to the UL 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:24
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+7
69.9%
Alonza Barnett III pass complete to Braeden Wisloski for 7 yds to the UL 30Similar
Q2 1:24
2ND & 3
OPP 30
0
71.2%
Alonza Barnett III pass incomplete to Wayne KnightSimilar
Q2 1:24
3RD & 3
OPP 30
0
69.8%
Alonza Barnett III pass incomplete to Nick DeGennaroSimilar
Q2 0:41
4TH & 3
OPP 30
+48
67.9%
Morgan Suarez 48 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 15END OF HALF
11 plays · 68 yds · 0:4137% → 38%
Q2 0:41
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+44
63.4%
Lunch Winfield pass complete to Robert Williams for 44 yds to the JMU 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:28
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
58.7%
Lunch Winfield pass incomplete to KeDarius WadeSimilar
Q2 0:22
2ND & 10
OPP 26
+14
58.9%
Lunch Winfield pass complete to Robert Williams for 14 yds to the JMU 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:16
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+5
58.3%
Lunch Winfield pass complete to Caden Jensen for 5 yds to the JMU 7Similar
Q2 0:10
2ND & 5
OPP 7
+2
61.2%
Lunch Winfield run for 2 yds to the JMU 5Similar
Q2 0:05
3RD & 3
OPP 5
+4
62.1%
Lunch Winfield run for 4 yds to the JMU 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:04
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
62.9%
Lunch Winfield pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
-1
62.5%
Bill Davis run for a loss of 1 yard to the JMU 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JMUDrive 16TD
1 play · 62 yds · 0:0079% → 79%
Q3 14:46
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+62
79.0%
Alonza Barnett III pass complete to Landon Ellis for 62 yds for a TD (Morgan Suarez KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 17PUNT
9 plays · 23 yds · 1:5125% → 27%
Q3 14:38
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
75.3%
Lunch Winfield pass incomplete to Robert WilliamsSimilar
Q3 14:34
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
75.4%
Lunch Winfield pass incomplete to Caden JensenSimilar
Q3 14:28
3RD & 10
OWN 25
-15
76.1%
(14:32) Shotgun Winfield,Lunch pass incomplete short middle to Martin,Dale thrown to UL 40 PENALTY JMU Pass Interference (Barksdale,DJ) 15 yards from UL 25 to UL 40, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 14:22
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+2
73.6%
Bill Davis run for 2 yds to the UL 42Similar
Q3 14:03
2ND & 8
OWN 42
0
72.6%
Bill Davis run for no gain to the UL 42Similar
Q3 13:25
3RD & 8
OWN 42
+6
73.1%
Lunch Winfield run for 6 yds to the UL 48Similar
Q3 12:47
4TH & 2
OWN 48
0
72.7%
Nathan Torney punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Wayne Knight at the JMU 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JMUDrive 18INT
12 plays · 46 yds · 5:1476% → 74%
Q3 12:41
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+2
76.3%
Wayne Knight run for 2 yds to the JMU 18Similar
Q3 12:08
2ND & 8
OWN 18
+10
75.6%
Alonza Barnett III pass complete to Wayne Knight for 10 yds to the JMU 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:57
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+8
75.4%
Alonza Barnett III pass complete to Braeden Wisloski for 8 yds Braeden Wisloski fumbled, recovered by JMU Braeden WisloskiSimilar
Q3 10:46
2ND & 2
OWN 36
+4
76.9%
Jordan Fuller run for 4 yds to the JMU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:23
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+7
76.7%
Wayne Knight run for 7 yds to the JMU 47Similar
Q3 9:53
2ND & 3
OWN 47
+10
77.4%
Louisiana Penalty, Defensive Holding (Brent Gordon Jr.) to the JMU 40Similar
Q3 9:21
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+20
75.4%
Alonza Barnett III pass complete to Jaylan Sanchez for 20 yds to the UL 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:04
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+7
77.4%
Alonza Barnett III pass complete to Lacota Dippre for 7 yds to the UL 33Similar
Q3 8:47
2ND & 3
OPP 33
+5
78.0%
Wayne Knight run for 5 yds to the UL 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:47
1ST & 10
OPP 28
-4
78.0%
Wayne Knight run for a loss of 4 yards to the UL 32Similar
Q3 8:47
2ND & 14
OPP 32
+6
76.4%
Alonza Barnett III pass complete to Wayne Knight for 6 yds to the UL 38Similar
Q3 7:27
3RD & 20
OPP 38
-16
74.0%
Alonza Barnett III pass intercepted Collin Jacob return for 16 yds to the UL 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 19PUNT
5 plays · -2 yds · 1:2830% → 28%
Q3 7:27
1ST & 17
OWN 29
0
70.4%
Lunch Winfield pass incomplete to Trey MillerSimilar
Q3 7:27
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-10
69.0%
Louisiana Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the UL 29Similar
Q3 7:27
2ND & 17
OWN 29
+5
71.0%
Lunch Winfield pass complete to Trey Miller for 5 yds to the UL 34Similar
Q3 7:27
3RD & 12
OWN 34
0
71.6%
Lunch Winfield pass incomplete to Trey MillerSimilar
Q3 5:59
4TH & 12
OWN 34
+16
71.6%
Nathan Torney punt for 42 yds , Wayne Knight returns for 16 yds to the JMU 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JMUDrive 20PUNT
10 plays · 22 yds · 3:5275% → 69%
Q3 5:59
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+5
74.5%
Alonza Barnett III run for 5 yds to the JMU 45Similar
Q3 5:59
2ND & 5
OWN 45
+6
75.3%
Wayne Knight run for 6 yds to the UL 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:59
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+4
75.8%
Alonza Barnett III pass complete to Jaylan Sanchez for 4 yds to the UL 45Similar
Q3 5:59
2ND & 6
OPP 45
+4
75.8%
Jordan Fuller run for 4 yds to the UL 41Similar
Q3 5:59
3RD & 2
OPP 41
+5
75.3%
Jordan Fuller run for 5 yds to the UL 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:59
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
76.0%
Alonza Barnett III pass incomplete to Michael ScottSimilar
Q3 5:59
2ND & 10
OPP 36
+3
75.8%
Jordan Fuller run for 3 yds to the UL 33Similar
Q3 5:59
3RD & 7
OPP 33
0
75.4%
Alonza Barnett III pass incomplete to Michael ScottSimilar
Q3 5:59
4TH & 7
OPP 33
+5
73.3%
PENALTY JMU Delay Of Game (Barnett III,Alonza) 5 yards from UL 33 to UL 38. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 2:07
4TH & 12
OPP 38
0
68.5%
Patrick Rea punt for 35 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 21PUNT
6 plays · 1 yds · 2:0333% → 32%
Q3 2:07
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+5
66.7%
Bill Davis run for 5 yds to the UL 8Similar
Q3 2:07
2ND & 5
OWN 8
-4
67.2%
PENALTY UL False Start (Isom,Jakoby) 4 yards from UL 08 to UL 04. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 2:07
2ND & 9
OWN 4
0
67.2%
Lunch Winfield pass incomplete to Trey MillerSimilar
Q3 2:07
3RD & 9
OWN 4
+4
68.4%
Lunch Winfield run for 4 yds to the UL 8Similar
Q3 2:07
4TH & 5
OWN 8
-4
69.5%
PENALTY UL False Start (Martin,Dale) 4 yards from UL 08 to UL 04. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 0:04
4TH & 9
OWN 4
0
68.2%
Nathan Torney punt for 21 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the UL 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JMUDrive 22TD
6 plays · 25 yds · 2:2774% → 89%
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+9
73.6%
Wayne Knight run for 9 yds to the UL 16Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 1
OPP 16
-1
73.6%
Wayne Knight run for a loss of 1 yard to the UL 17Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 2
OPP 17
+8
72.0%
Jordan Fuller run for 8 yds to the UL 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
0
73.6%
Alonza Barnett III pass complete to Wayne Knight for no gain to the UL 9Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+5
73.6%
Alonza Barnett III run for 5 yds to the UL 4Similar
Q4 12:33
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
89.4%
Alonza Barnett III pass complete to Landon Ellis for 4 yds for a TD (Morgan Suarez KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 23PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 1:2815% → 14%
Q4 12:19
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
84.8%
Lunch Winfield pass incomplete to Steven BlancoSimilar
Q4 12:06
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+7
85.4%
Lunch Winfield pass complete to Jaydon Johnson for 7 yds to the UL 32Similar
Q4 11:32
3RD & 3
OWN 32
-2
84.7%
Lunch Winfield run for a loss of 2 yards to the UL 30Similar
Q4 10:51
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
86.3%
Nathan Torney punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Wayne Knight at the JMU 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JMUDrive 24PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 2:0888% → 88%
Q4 10:23
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+4
88.4%
Alonza Barnett III pass complete to Jordan Fuller for 4 yds to the JMU 38Similar
Q4 10:08
2ND & 6
OWN 38
-1
89.6%
Jordan Fuller run for a loss of 1 yard to the JMU 37Similar
Q4 9:20
3RD & 7
OWN 37
-10
88.2%
(09:26) No Huddle-Shotgun Barnett III,Alonza pass complete short left to Dippre,Lacota caught at JMU45, for 8 yards to the JMU45 (Gordon Jr.,Brent; Lawson,Jordan) PENALTY JMU Holding (Simmons,Joseph) 10 yards from JMU37 to JMU27. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 8:46
3RD & 17
OWN 27
+9
86.9%
Alonza Barnett III pass complete to Braeden Wisloski for 9 yds to the JMU 36Similar
Q4 8:15
4TH & 8
OWN 36
0
87.8%
Patrick Rea punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Robert Williams at the UL 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 25PUNT
4 plays · -6 yds · 2:0115% → 11%
Q4 8:09
1ST & 10
OWN 19
0
84.8%
Lunch Winfield pass complete to Caden Jensen for no gain to the UL 19Similar
Q4 7:41
2ND & 10
OWN 19
+3
85.3%
Lunch Winfield pass complete to Dale Martin for 3 yds to the UL 22Similar
Q4 6:58
3RD & 7
OWN 22
-9
87.9%
Lunch Winfield sacked by Sahir West for a loss of 9 yards to the UL 13Similar
Q4 6:08
4TH & 16
OWN 13
0
88.7%
Nathan Torney punt for 43 yds , Wayne Knight returns for no gain to the JMU 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JMUDrive 26FG
8 plays · 51 yds · 2:5792% → 95%
Q4 6:02
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+3
91.6%
Wayne Knight run for 3 yds to the JMU 47Similar
Q4 5:25
2ND & 7
OWN 47
+2
92.0%
Alonza Barnett III run for 2 yds to the JMU 49Similar
Q4 4:34
3RD & 5
OWN 49
+41
91.4%
Alonza Barnett III pass complete to Landon Ellis for 41 yds to the UL 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:52
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
0
94.2%
Wayne Knight run for no gain to the UL 10Similar
Q4 3:10
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
+5
95.0%
Wayne Knight run for 5 yds to the UL 5Similar
Q4 3:08
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
0
94.7%
Alonza Barnett III pass incomplete to Jaylan SanchezSimilar
Q4 3:05
4TH & GOAL
OPP 5
+24
94.5%
Morgan Suarez 24 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 27INT
13 plays · 56 yds · 1:145% → 4%
Q4 2:49
1ST & 10
OWN 19
-5
95.5%
Lunch Winfield sacked by Aiden Gobaira for a loss of 5 yards to the UL 14Similar
Q4 2:30
2ND & 15
OWN 14
+10
96.7%
Lunch Winfield pass complete to Jaydon Johnson for 10 yds to the UL 24Similar
Q4 2:11
3RD & 5
OWN 24
+30
96.7%
Lunch Winfield pass complete to Robert Williams for 30 yds to the JMU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:04
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+14
95.7%
(02:04) No Huddle-Shotgun Winfield,Lunch pass incomplete short right to Dennis,Rahji thrown to JMU30, 1ST DOWN, PENALTY JMU Pass Interference (Barksdale,DJ) 14 yards from JMU46 to JMU32, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 2:04
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
95.1%
Lunch Winfield pass incomplete to Trey MillerSimilar
Q4 1:54
2ND & 10
OPP 32
+7
95.1%
(01:57) No Huddle-Shotgun Winfield,Lunch pass incomplete short right to Miller,Trey thrown to JMU25 PENALTY JMU Pass Interference (Brown,Tyler) 7 yards from JMU32 to JMU25, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 1:48
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
94.8%
Lunch Winfield pass incomplete to Robert WilliamsSimilar
Q4 1:41
2ND & 10
OPP 25
0
95.5%
Steven Blanco run for no gain to the JMU 25Similar
Q4 1:35
3RD & 10
OPP 25
0
95.8%
Lunch Winfield pass intercepted, touchback. Jacob Thomas return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JMUDrive 28END OF GAME
3 plays · -6 yds · 1:3097% → 97%
Q4 1:30
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-3
97.1%
A. Barnett III takes a kneeSimilar
Q4 0:46
2ND & 13
OWN 17
-2
97.1%
A. Barnett III takes a kneeSimilar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 15
OWN 15
-1
97.2%
A. Barnett III takes a kneeSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 14:46
Alonza Barnett III pass complete to Landon Ellis for 62 yds for a TD (Morgan Suarez KICK)
+16
TD · Q4 12:33
Alonza Barnett III pass complete to Landon Ellis for 4 yds for a TD (Morgan Suarez KICK)
+15.8
TD · Q2 3:16
Lunch Winfield pass complete to Dale Martin for 69 yds for a TD (Tony Sterner KICK)
-9.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com