Try the model
UL

Louisiana 31 at South Alabama 22

USA
2025 · Week 10 · Nov 1, 2025 · Hancock Whitney Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · USA
modelUSA aheadUL aheadconfidence bandkey playUSA scoreUL score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 1:55 · (01:58) #92 N.Torney punt 43 yards to the USA47 fair catch by #1 D.Voisin at USA47
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorPregame priorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+40.0+20.00−20.0−40.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 172Home team on offense−36.4Score differential−12.5Garbage-time factor−13.3Pregame prior+0.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−10.7Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−13.4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 2:09: (02:14) Shotgun #3 Z.Perry rush middle for 18 yards gain to the USA00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 02:09, 1ST DOWN #95 T.Sterner kick attempt good (H: #92 N.Torney, LS: #48 H.Sims) — UL win probability +9.3 pts (now 60%) (top driver: UL has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 0:11: (00:17) Shotgun #2 L.Winfield pass complete short right to #6 S.Sampson Jr. caught at USA00, for 17 yards to the USA00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 00:11, 1ST DOWN #95 T.Sterner kick attempt good (H: #92 N.Torney, LS: #48 H.Sims) — UL win probability +14.7 pts (now 80%) (top driver: UL has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 11:58: (11:59) Shotgun #2 L.Winfield rush middle for 1 yard gain to the USA00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 11:58 #95 T.Sterner kick attempt good (H: #92 N.Torney, LS: #48 H.Sims) PENALTY #95 T.Sterner kick attempt good (H: #92 N.Torney, LS: #48 H.Sims) PENALTY USA Offside declined — UL win probability +11.6 pts (now 90%) (top driver: UL has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 6:54: (06:57) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 B.Davenport rush middle for 5 yards gain to the UL 00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 06:54 #35 D.Little kick attempt good (H: #40 A.Pulkkinen, LS: #44 B.Turner) — USA win probability +13.2 pts (now 23%) (top driver: USA has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 11:59: (12:08) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 B.Davenport pass complete deep left to #9 J.Scott caught at UL 29, for 64 yards to the UL 00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 11:59, 1ST DOWN #82 T.Thomas pass attempt Successful — USA win probability +21.9 pts (now 29%) (top driver: USA has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
USA made the numbers' call on 6 of 7UL made the numbers' call on 2 of 5
  1. Q1 12:51USA 4th & 5 at UL 43, tied
    Close callPunted · 60.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.9%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    60.8%−0.1
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    60.9%−<0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 6:28USA 4th & 6 at USA 29, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 56.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.9%−0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    57.0%
    average punt
  3. Q1 1:24UL 4th & 10 at USA 15, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 45.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.1%−0.6
    27% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    45.6%
    83% to make
    Punt
    42.5%−3.2
    average punt
  4. Q2 1:36USA 4th & 5 at USA 22, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 39.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.3%−0.7
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    39.1%
    average punt
  5. Q3 10:23USA 4th & 1 at USA 46, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 12.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    13.0%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    9.9%−3.1
    average punt
  6. Q3 3:57UL 4th & 7 at UL 49, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 84.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.7%−0.3
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    85.0%
    average punt
  7. Q3 0:48USA 4th & 3 at UL 34, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 17.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    17.6%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    15.4%−2.1
    47% to make
    Punt
    14.3%−3.3
    average punt
  8. Q4 12:09UL 4th & 9 at USA 36, up 17
    Close callKicked a field goal · 91.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.1%
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    90.9%−0.1
    42% to make
    Punt
    90.6%−0.5
    average punt
  9. Q4 9:43UL 4th & 2 at UL 33, up 9
    Close callPunted · 78.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.6%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    79.3%−0.3
    average punt
  10. Q4 7:00USA 4th & 1 at UL 36, down 9
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 19.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    19.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    14.9%−4.7
    42% to make
    Punt
    13.3%−6.3
    average punt
  11. Q4 2:41USA 4th & 1 at UL 1, down 9
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 12.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    18.4%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    11.0%−7.4
    94% to make
    Punt
    5.2%−13.2
    average punt
  12. Q4 1:55UL 4th & 1 at UL 10, up 9
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.5 ptsPunted · 93.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.8%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    92.3%−1.5
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
USA made the numbers' call on 2 of 3UL made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 8:05UL Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    41.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    41.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 9:38USA Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    56.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    56.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 2:09UL Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    57.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    57.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 0:11UL Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    70.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    70.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 11:58UL Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    84.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    84.6%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 6:54USA Touchdown, down 18 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    16.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    16.7%−0.2
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 11:59USA Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    21.1%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    21.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
USADrive 1PUNT
10 plays · 32 yds · 2:0259% → 59%
Q1 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
58.9%
(15:00) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 B.Davenport pass complete short right to #2 M.McCrumby caught at USA25, for 9 yards to the USA34, out of bounds at USA34Similar
Q1 14:31
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+5
59.0%
(14:35) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 K.Bullock rush left for 5 yards gain to the USA39 (#6 T.Williams; #7 C.Flowers), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 14:06
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+13
59.0%
(14:13) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 B.Davenport rush left for 13 yards gain to the UL 48 (#21 M.Eleam), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 13:40
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
59.1%
(13:45) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 B.Davenport pass incomplete short right to #11 A.Eager thrown to UL 35Similar
Q1 13:35
2ND & 10
OPP 48
0
59.1%
(13:40) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 K.Bullock rush right for 0 yards to the UL 48 (#0 J.Lawson; #3 J.Dugger)Similar
Q1 13:08
3RD & 10
OPP 48
+5
59.1%
(13:08) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 B.Davenport pass incomplete deep right to #9 J.Scott thrown to UL 25 PENALTY UL Offside (#9 C.Whitfield) 5 yards from UL 48 to UL 43. NO PLAYSimilar
Q1 12:58
3RD & 5
OPP 43
0
59.2%
(13:03) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 B.Davenport pass incomplete short left to #1 D.Voisin thrown to UL 38Similar
Q1 12:51
4TH & 5
OPP 43
0
59.1%
(12:57) #40 A.Pulkkinen punt 18 yards to the UL 25, out of bounds at UL 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 2TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 4:3441% → 45%
Q1 12:39
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
59.0%
(12:51) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 L.Winfield pass complete short right to #3 Z.Perry caught at UL 20, for 1 yard to the UL 26 (#17 D.Young; #0 C.Wallace, Jr.)Similar
Q1 12:12
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+6
59.0%
(12:17) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 Z.Perry rush middle for 6 yards gain to the UL 32 (#28 D.McKenzie; #45 E.Smith IV) PENALTY USA Face Mask (#45 E.Smith IV) 15 yards from UL 32 to UL 47, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 11:52
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+3
58.7%
(11:56) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 L.Winfield rush middle for 3 yards gain to the UL 50 (#45 E.Smith IV)Similar
Q1 11:13
2ND & 7
50
+8
58.5%
(11:18) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 Z.Perry rush left for 8 yards gain to the USA42 (#10 D.Hughes), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 10:38
1ST & 10
OPP 42
-2
58.5%
(10:42) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 Z.Perry rush right for 2 yards loss to the USA44 (#45 E.Smith IV)Similar
Q1 10:01
2ND & 12
OPP 44
+1
58.6%
(10:05) Shotgun #3 Z.Perry rush middle for 1 yard gain to the USA43 (#32 B.Myrick; #96 D.Wiseman)Similar
Q1 9:21
3RD & 11
OPP 43
+12
58.8%
(09:30) Shotgun #2 L.Winfield rush left for 12 yards gain to the USA31, out of bounds at USA31, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 8:40
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+6
58.0%
(08:51) Shotgun #2 L.Winfield rush right for 6 yards gain to the USA25 (#32 B.Myrick)Similar
Q1 8:05
2ND & 4
OPP 25
+25
55.4%
(08:12) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 L.Winfield pass complete short middle to #6 S.Sampson Jr. caught at USA06, for 25 yards to the USA00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 08:05, 1ST DOWN #95 T.Sterner kick attempt good (H: #92 N.Torney, LS: #48 H.Sims)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 3PUNT
7 plays · 4 yds · 1:3756% → 55%
Q1 8:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
56.4%
(08:05) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 B.Davenport pass complete short middle to #1 D.Voisin caught at USA21, for 20 yards to the USA45 (#11 B.Gordon, Jr.) PENALTY USA Holding (#2 M.McCrumby) 10 yards from USA25 to USA15. NO PLAYSimilar
Q1 7:32
1ST & 20
OWN 15
+8
56.1%
(07:46) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 B.Davenport pass complete short left to #6 M.Woods caught at USA13, for 8 yards to the USA23 (#8 K.Jackson; #17 A.Williams)Similar
Q1 7:12
2ND & 12
OWN 23
+6
56.0%
(07:18) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 B.Davenport pass complete short right to #1 D.Voisin caught at USA28, for 6 yards to the USA29 (#11 B.Gordon, Jr.)Similar
Q1 6:41
3RD & 6
OWN 29
0
55.7%
(06:46) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 B.Davenport pass incomplete short left to #9 J.Scott thrown to USA35Similar
Q1 6:28
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
55.2%
(06:41) #40 A.Pulkkinen punt 46 yards to the UL 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 4FG
9 plays · 60 yds · 4:5545% → 48%
Q1 6:19
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
55.3%
(06:28) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 L.Winfield pass complete short left to #6 S.Sampson Jr. caught at UL 34, for 9 yards to the UL 34, out of bounds at UL 34Similar
Q1 5:53
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+4
54.8%
(05:56) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 B.Davis rush middle for 4 yards gain to the UL 38 (#91 N.Jennings; #17 D.Young), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 5:14
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+2
54.3%
(05:25) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 L.Winfield pass complete short left to #7 B.Davis caught at UL 39, for 2 yards to the UL 40 (#5 T.Johnson), out of boundsSimilar
Q1 4:50
2ND & 8
OWN 40
0
54.0%
(04:55) Shotgun #7 B.Davis rush middle for 0 yards to the UL 40 (#5 T.Johnson; #97 T.Thomas)Similar
Q1 4:06
3RD & 8
OWN 40
+45
53.9%
(04:14) Shotgun #2 L.Winfield pass complete deep left to #6 S.Sampson Jr. caught at USA21, for 45 yards to the USA15 (#6 N.Chandler), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 3:26
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+2
52.9%
(03:30) Shotgun #3 Z.Perry rush middle for 2 yards gain to the USA13 (#32 B.Myrick; #18 R.Moss Jr.)Similar
Q1 2:41
2ND & 8
OPP 13
+4
52.5%
(02:46) Shotgun #3 Z.Perry rush right for 4 yards gain to the USA09 (#10 D.Hughes; #32 B.Myrick)Similar
Q1 2:05
3RD & 4
OPP 9
-3
52.3%
(02:05) Shotgun #2 L.Winfield sacked for loss of 6 yards to the USA15 (#10 D.Hughes, #45 E.Smith IV)Similar
Q1 1:24
4TH & 10
OPP 15
+32
52.0%
(01:26) #95 T.Sterner field goal attempt from 32 yards GOOD (H: #92 N.Torney, LS: #48 H.Sims), clock 01:24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 5TD
19 plays · 84 yds · 6:4051% → 59%
Q1 1:18
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+5
51.1%
(01:22) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 B.Davenport pass complete short right to #9 J.Scott caught at USA21, for 5 yards to the USA21 (#11 B.Gordon, Jr.), out of boundsSimilar
Q1 0:55
2ND & 5
OWN 21
0
51.1%
(01:01) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 B.Davenport pass incomplete short middle to #1 D.Voisin thrown to USA37 broken up by #8 K.JacksonSimilar
Q1 0:48
3RD & 5
OWN 21
+8
50.3%
(00:54) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 B.Davenport pass complete short middle to #2 M.McCrumby caught at USA27, for 8 yards to the USA29 (#4 T.Skipper), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 0:34
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+5
50.9%
(00:34) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 K.Bullock rush middle for 5 yards gain to the USA34 (#93 J.Crider)Similar
Q2 14:55
2ND & 5
OWN 34
+3
50.9%
(15:00) Shotgun #3 K.Bullock rush right for 3 yards gain to the USA37 (#93 J.Crider; #6 T.Williams)Similar
Q2 14:40
3RD & 2
OWN 37
+2
50.6%
(14:43) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 K.Bullock rush middle for 2 yards gain to the USA39 (#0 J.Lawson; #3 J.Dugger), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 14:04
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+2
50.6%
(14:08) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 K.Bullock rush middle for 2 yards gain to the USA41 (#4 T.Skipper; #68 F.West Jr.)Similar
Q2 13:35
2ND & 8
OWN 41
+4
50.1%
(13:39) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 K.Bullock rush right for 4 yards gain to the USA45 (#6 T.Williams; #68 F.West Jr.)Similar
Q2 12:44
3RD & 4
OWN 45
+6
49.4%
(13:03) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 B.Davenport pass complete short left to #1 D.Voisin caught at USA50, for 6 yards to the UL 49 (#7 C.Flowers), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 12:34
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
50.1%
(12:38) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 B.Davenport pass incomplete deep middle to #1 D.Voisin thrown to UL 10Similar
Q2 12:24
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+6
49.7%
(12:31) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 B.Davenport pass complete short middle to #11 A.Eager caught at USA47, for 6 yards to the UL 43 (#6 T.Williams; #11 B.Gordon, Jr.)Similar
Q2 12:08
3RD & 4
OPP 43
+5
49.7%
(12:11) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 K.Bullock rush middle for 5 yards gain to the UL 38 (#3 J.Dugger; #95 M.Baudoin IV), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 11:42
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+5
49.4%
(11:42) No Huddle-Shotgun #21 K.Phillips rush middle for 8 yards gain to the UL 30 (#11 B.Gordon, Jr.) PENALTY USA Illegal Formation 5 yards from UL 38 to UL 43. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 11:10
1ST & 15
OPP 43
+6
48.6%
(11:20) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 B.Davenport pass complete short left to #6 M.Woods caught at UL 46, for 6 yards to the UL 37 (#44 J.St. Andre; #8 K.Jackson)Similar
Q2 10:25
2ND & 9
OPP 37
+20
49.3%
(10:41) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 B.Davenport pass complete deep right to #11 A.Eager caught at UL 17, for 20 yards to the UL 17, End Of Play, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 10:15
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+2
50.1%
(10:20) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 B.Davenport pass complete short right to #11 A.Eager caught at UL 18, for 2 yards to the UL 15 (#11 B.Gordon, Jr.)Similar
Q2 9:38
2ND & 8
OPP 15
+15
58.9%
(09:44) No Huddle-Shotgun #21 K.Phillips rush right for 15 yards gain to the UL 00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 09:38, 1ST DOWN #35 D.Little kick attempt good (H: #40 A.Pulkkinen, LS: #44 B.Turner)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 6TD
15 plays · 75 yds · 7:2245% → 60%
Q2 9:31
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
55.2%
(09:38) No Huddle-Shotgun #24 S.Blanco rush middle for 3 yards gain to the UL 28 (#30 A.Woods; #99 S.Johnson)Similar
Q2 8:54
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+6
54.8%
(08:57) Shotgun #2 L.Winfield rush middle for 6 yards gain to the UL 34 (#0 C.Wallace, Jr.; #28 D.McKenzie)Similar
Q2 8:35
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+3
54.5%
(08:41) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 B.Davis rush middle for 3 yards gain to the UL 37 (#0 C.Wallace, Jr.; #2 J.Henderson), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 7:49
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+6
53.1%
(07:54) Shotgun #13 C.Robertson rush right for 6 yards gain to the UL 43 (#0 C.Wallace, Jr.; #10 D.Hughes)Similar
Q2 7:13
2ND & 4
OWN 43
+5
52.1%
PENALTY USA Delay Of Game (#0 C.Wallace, Jr.) 5 yards from UL 43 to UL 48, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 6:55
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+5
51.9%
(07:00) Shotgun #7 B.Davis rush middle for 5 yards gain to the USA47 (#99 S.Johnson; #0 C.Wallace, Jr.)Similar
Q2 6:18
2ND & 5
OPP 47
+3
51.3%
(06:22) Shotgun #2 L.Winfield rush middle for 3 yards gain to the USA44 (#99 S.Johnson; #90 E.Smiley)Similar
Q2 5:33
3RD & 2
OPP 44
+4
51.3%
(05:36) Shotgun #2 L.Winfield rush middle for 4 yards gain to the USA40 (#32 B.Myrick), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 4:58
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-1
50.9%
(05:02) Shotgun #3 Z.Perry rush left for 1 yard loss to the USA41 (#96 D.Wiseman; #45 E.Smith IV)Similar
Q2 4:10
2ND & 11
OPP 41
+2
50.8%
(04:24) Shotgun #2 L.Winfield pass complete short right to #86 T.Miller caught at USA39, for 2 yards to the USA39 QB hurried by #32 B.Myrick (#28 D.McKenzie), out of boundsSimilar
Q2 3:30
3RD & 9
OPP 39
+14
51.0%
(03:41) Shotgun #2 L.Winfield pass complete short middle to #18 J.Johnson caught at USA29, for 14 yards to the USA25 (#1 W.Miller), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 3:10
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+12
49.4%
(03:15) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 B.Davis rush middle for 12 yards gain to the USA13 (#1 W.Miller; #6 N.Chandler), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 2:33
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+5
48.9%
PENALTY UL False Start (#79 M.Maillho) 5 yards from USA13 to USA18. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 2:09
1ST & 15
OPP 18
+18
39.6%
(02:14) Shotgun #3 Z.Perry rush middle for 18 yards gain to the USA00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 02:09, 1ST DOWN #95 T.Sterner kick attempt good (H: #92 N.Torney, LS: #48 H.Sims)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 7PUNT
7 plays · 5 yds · 0:2141% → 39%
Q2 1:57
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+1
40.8%
(02:01) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 K.Bullock rush middle for 1 yard gain to the USA18 (#4 T.Skipper)Similar
Q2 1:52
2ND & 9
OWN 18
+4
40.8%
(01:57) Shotgun #3 K.Bullock rush middle for 4 yards gain to the USA22 (#0 J.Lawson; #44 J.St. Andre)Similar
Q2 1:48
3RD & 5
OWN 22
0
40.5%
(01:52) Shotgun #4 B.Davenport pass incomplete short left to #3 K.Bullock thrown to USA17Similar
Q2 1:36
4TH & 5
OWN 22
0
38.8%
(01:48) #40 A.Pulkkinen punt 40 yards to the UL 38 #0 R.Williams return 8 yards to the UL 46 (#11 A.Brown) PENALTY UL Blocking Out Of Bounds (#11 B.Gordon, Jr.) USA UNR: Unnecessary Roughness (#28 D.McKenzie) 30 yards from UL 36 to UL 36, 1ST DOWNSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 8TD
9 plays · 64 yds · 1:1560% → 80%
Q2 1:26
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+5
40.2%
(01:36) Shotgun #2 L.Winfield pass complete deep middle to #6 S.Sampson Jr. caught at USA42, for 22 yards to the USA42, out of bounds at USA42 PENALTY UL Illegal Motion (#64 B.Williams) 5 yards from UL 36 to UL 31. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 1:19
1ST & 15
OWN 31
+23
41.1%
(01:26) Shotgun #2 L.Winfield pass complete deep left to #0 R.Williams caught at USA46, for 23 yards to the USA46, out of bounds at USA46, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 1:18
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+5
38.6%
(01:19) Shotgun #2 L.Winfield rush middle for 5 yards gain to the USA41 (#1 W.Miller; #45 E.Smith IV)Similar
Q2 1:01
2ND & 5
OPP 41
+1
36.9%
(01:06) Shotgun #3 Z.Perry rush middle for 1 yard gain to the USA40 (#45 E.Smith IV)Similar
Q2 0:21
3RD & 4
OPP 40
+23
35.5%
(00:31) Shotgun #2 L.Winfield pass complete deep right to #6 S.Sampson Jr. caught at USA17, for 23 yards to the USA17 QB hurried by #32 B.Myrick (#7 T.Goodwill), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 0:17
1ST & 10
OPP 17
0
34.4%
(00:17) Shotgun #2 L.Winfield pass incomplete, SpikeSimilar
Q2 0:11
2ND & 10
OPP 17
+17
19.7%
(00:17) Shotgun #2 L.Winfield pass complete short right to #6 S.Sampson Jr. caught at USA00, for 17 yards to the USA00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 00:11, 1ST DOWN #95 T.Sterner kick attempt good (H: #92 N.Torney, LS: #48 H.Sims)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 9END OF HALF
3 plays · 1 yds · 0:0030% → 30%
Q2 0:11
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
29.5%
(00:11) No Huddle-Shotgun #21 K.Phillips rush middle for 1 yard gain to the USA26 (#44 J.St. Andre)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 10TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 2:5374% → 90%
Q3 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
26.1%
(15:00) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 L.Winfield pass complete short left to #83 B.Chappell caught at UL 30, for 9 yards to the UL 34 (#32 B.Myrick; #6 N.Chandler)Similar
Q3 14:22
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+7
25.4%
(14:25) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 Z.Perry rush right for 7 yards gain to the UL 41 (#1 W.Miller; #6 N.Chandler), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 13:47
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+19
24.7%
(13:58) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 L.Winfield pass complete short middle to #6 S.Sampson Jr. caught at USA45, for 19 yards to the USA40 (#6 N.Chandler), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 13:11
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+35
23.3%
(13:18) Shotgun #2 L.Winfield pass complete short right to #83 B.Chappell caught at USA23, for 35 yards to the USA05 (#1 W.Miller), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 12:50
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+1
22.2%
(12:54) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 Z.Perry rush middle for 1 yard gain to the USA04 (#96 D.Wiseman; #2 J.Henderson) PENALTY USA UNR: Unnecessary Roughness (#96 D.Wiseman) 2 yards from USA04 to USA02, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 12:33
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
21.9%
(12:39) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 B.Davis rush left for 1 yard gain to the USA01 (#0 C.Wallace, Jr.; #28 D.McKenzie)Similar
Q3 11:58
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
10.3%
(11:59) Shotgun #2 L.Winfield rush middle for 1 yard gain to the USA00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 11:58 #95 T.Sterner kick attempt good (H: #92 N.Torney, LS: #48 H.Sims) PENALTY #95 T.Sterner kick attempt good (H: #92 N.Torney, LS: #48 H.Sims) PENALTY USA Offside declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 11TD
14 plays · 75 yds · 4:5613% → 23%
Q3 11:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
13.3%
(11:58) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 B.Davenport pass complete short middle to #9 J.Scott caught at USA35, for 12 yards to the USA37 (#11 B.Gordon, Jr.), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 11:33
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
13.5%
(11:37) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 B.Davenport pass incomplete short left to #1 D.Voisin thrown to USA45 broken up by #7 C.FlowersSimilar
Q3 11:28
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+3
13.3%
(11:32) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 B.Davenport rush middle for 3 yards gain to the USA40 (#68 F.West Jr.; #4 T.Skipper)Similar
Q3 10:43
3RD & 7
OWN 40
+6
12.8%
(10:49) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 B.Davenport pass complete short left to #82 T.Thomas caught at USA45, for 6 yards to the USA46 (#4 T.Skipper; #2 J.Clark)Similar
Q3 10:23
4TH & 1
OWN 46
+4
12.0%
(10:28) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 K.Bullock rush middle for 4 yards gain to the USA50 (#0 J.Lawson), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 9:52
1ST & 10
50
+3
11.3%
(09:57) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 K.Bullock rush middle for 3 yards gain to the UL 47 (#17 A.Williams; #3 J.Dugger)Similar
Q3 9:16
2ND & 7
OPP 47
0
10.6%
(09:26) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 B.Davenport pass complete short left to #3 K.Bullock caught at UL 50, for 0 yards to the UL 47 (#44 J.St. Andre)Similar
Q3 8:47
3RD & 7
OPP 47
+15
10.2%
(08:47) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 B.Davenport pass incomplete short right to #3 K.Bullock thrown to USA48 PENALTY UL Roughing The Passer (#9 C.Whitfield) 15 yards from UL 47 to UL 32, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q3 8:35
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+6
10.8%
(08:43) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 K.Bullock rush left for 6 yards gain to the UL 26 (#90 K.Miller)Similar
Q3 7:54
2ND & 4
OPP 26
0
10.3%
(07:58) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 B.Davenport pass incomplete short middle to #1 D.Voisin thrown to UL 15Similar
Q3 7:46
3RD & 4
OPP 26
+18
9.9%
(07:54) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 B.Davenport rush left for 18 yards gain to the UL 08 (#44 J.St. Andre), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 7:24
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+3
9.9%
(07:28) No Huddle-Shotgun #21 K.Phillips rush middle for 3 yards gain to the UL 05 (#4 T.Skipper)Similar
Q3 6:54
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
23.2%
(06:57) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 B.Davenport rush middle for 5 yards gain to the UL 00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 06:54 #35 D.Little kick attempt good (H: #40 A.Pulkkinen, LS: #44 B.Turner)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 12PUNT
9 plays · 14 yds · 2:5282% → 85%
Q3 6:49
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
17.9%
(06:54) Shotgun #7 B.Davis rush middle for 4 yards gain to the UL 39 (#28 D.McKenzie; #18 R.Moss Jr.)Similar
Q3 6:12
2ND & 6
OWN 39
+7
16.5%
(06:17) Shotgun #7 B.Davis rush right for 7 yards gain to the UL 46 (#27 I.Mafe; #18 R.Moss Jr.), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 5:35
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+8
15.9%
(05:40) Shotgun #7 B.Davis rush left for 8 yards gain to the USA46 (#28 D.McKenzie)Similar
Q3 5:03
2ND & 2
OPP 46
+5
14.8%
PENALTY UL False Start (#50 C.Fordham) 5 yards from USA46 to UL 49. NO PLAYSimilar
Q3 4:40
2ND & 7
OWN 49
0
14.7%
(04:44) Shotgun #2 L.Winfield rush right for 0 yards to the UL 49 (#28 D.McKenzie)Similar
Q3 4:05
3RD & 7
OWN 49
0
14.2%
(04:12) Shotgun #2 L.Winfield pass incomplete deep right to #6 S.Sampson Jr. thrown to USA12 broken up by #16 B.DillardSimilar
Q3 3:57
4TH & 7
OWN 49
0
15.3%
(04:01) #92 N.Torney punt 51 yards to the USA00, TouchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 13DOWNS
9 plays · 41 yds · 3:0217% → 17%
Q3 3:50
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
17.4%
(03:56) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 B.Davenport pass incomplete short right to #1 D.Voisin thrown to USA27Similar
Q3 3:44
2ND & 10
OWN 20
0
17.2%
(03:50) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 B.Davenport pass incomplete deep right to #1 D.Voisin thrown to USA45Similar
Q3 3:35
3RD & 10
OWN 20
+17
16.8%
(03:44) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 B.Davenport pass complete short right to #6 M.Woods caught at USA33, for 17 yards to the USA37 (#97 L.Williams), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 3:10
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+9
17.7%
(03:14) No Huddle-Shotgun #21 K.Phillips rush middle for 9 yards gain to the USA46 (#6 T.Williams; #4 T.Skipper)Similar
Q3 2:39
2ND & 1
OWN 46
+13
18.8%
(02:45) No Huddle-Shotgun #21 K.Phillips rush middle for 13 yards gain to the UL 41 (#3 J.Dugger), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 2:00
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+9
18.5%
(02:05) No Huddle-Shotgun #21 K.Phillips rush middle for 9 yards gain to the UL 32 (#7 C.Flowers; #3 J.Dugger)Similar
Q3 1:37
2ND & 1
OPP 32
0
19.1%
(01:41) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 B.Davenport pass incomplete deep left to #6 M.Woods thrown to UL 02 broken up by #11 B.Gordon, Jr.Similar
Q3 1:31
3RD & 1
OPP 32
-2
18.7%
(01:36) No Huddle-Shotgun #21 K.Phillips rush middle for 2 yards loss to the UL 34 (#3 J.Dugger)Similar
Q3 0:48
4TH & 3
OPP 34
-5
17.0%
(00:53) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 B.Davenport sacked for loss of 5 yards to the UL 39 (#4 T.Skipper), TURNOVER ON DOWNSSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 14MISSED FG
11 plays · 25 yds · 3:3390% → 93%
Q3 0:42
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+4
10.3%
(00:46) Shotgun #3 Z.Perry rush middle for 4 yards gain to the UL 43 (#5 T.Johnson; #90 E.Smiley)Similar
Q3 0:07
2ND & 6
OWN 43
+2
9.9%
(00:07) Shotgun #2 L.Winfield rush middle for 2 yards gain to the UL 45 (#26 P.Shattuck)Similar
Q4 14:52
3RD & 4
OWN 45
+8
9.7%
(15:00) Shotgun #2 L.Winfield pass complete short right to #86 T.Miller caught at UL 44, for 8 yards to the USA47 (#28 D.McKenzie), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 14:22
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+10
8.8%
(14:26) Shotgun #7 B.Davis rush middle for 10 yards gain to the USA37 (#10 D.Hughes; #30 A.Woods), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 13:39
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+2
8.2%
(13:44) Shotgun #7 B.Davis rush middle for 2 yards gain to the USA35 (#25 T.Henry; #30 A.Woods)Similar
Q4 12:59
2ND & 8
OPP 35
-1
7.8%
(13:01) Shotgun #2 L.Winfield rush left for 1 yard loss to the USA36 (#99 S.Johnson)Similar
Q4 12:14
3RD & 9
OPP 36
0
6.0%
(12:17) Shotgun #4 W.Howard pass incomplete short left to #83 B.Chappell thrown to USA35Similar
Q4 12:09
4TH & 9
OPP 36
+53
6.6%
(12:09) #95 T.Sterner field goal attempt from 53 yards NO GOOD (H: #92 N.Torney, LS: #48 H.Sims), clock 12:09Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 15TD
1 play · 64 yds · 0:0029% → 29%
Q4 11:59
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+64
28.5%
(12:08) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 B.Davenport pass complete deep left to #9 J.Scott caught at UL 29, for 64 yards to the UL 00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 11:59, 1ST DOWN #82 T.Thomas pass attempt SuccessfulSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 16PUNT
6 plays · 5 yds · 2:1174% → 82%
Q4 11:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
26.5%
(11:58) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 Z.Perry rush middle for 2 yards gain to the UL 27 (#45 E.Smith IV)Similar
Q4 11:13
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+3
24.8%
(11:16) Shotgun #3 Z.Perry rush middle for 3 yards gain to the UL 30 (#1 W.Miller)Similar
Q4 10:32
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+3
24.1%
(10:36) Shotgun #2 L.Winfield rush middle for 3 yards gain to the UL 33 (#32 B.Myrick; #45 E.Smith IV)Similar
Q4 9:43
4TH & 2
OWN 33
0
18.0%
(09:50) #92 N.Torney punt 44 yards to the USA23 fair catch by #1 D.Voisin at USA23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 17DOWNS
19 plays · 76 yds · 6:5221% → 9%
Q4 9:33
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
20.5%
(09:43) No Huddle-Shotgun #21 K.Phillips rush right for 0 yards to the USA23 (#3 J.Dugger)Similar
Q4 9:02
2ND & 10
OWN 23
+6
19.6%
(09:13) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 B.Davenport pass complete short left to #9 J.Scott caught at USA29, for 6 yards to the USA29 (#7 C.Flowers)Similar
Q4 8:41
3RD & 4
OWN 29
+11
19.8%
(08:46) No Huddle-Shotgun #21 K.Phillips rush middle for 11 yards gain to the USA40 (#17 A.Williams), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 8:10
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+15
20.6%
(08:10) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 B.Davenport pass incomplete deep right to #1 D.Voisin thrown to UL 25 PENALTY UL Pass Interference (#11 B.Gordon, Jr.) 15 yards from USA40 to UL 45, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 7:56
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
22.7%
(08:02) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 B.Davenport pass incomplete short left to #1 D.Voisin thrown to UL 31 broken up by #11 B.Gordon, Jr.Similar
Q4 7:52
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+6
21.7%
(07:56) No Huddle-Shotgun #21 K.Phillips rush middle for 6 yards gain to the UL 39 (#95 M.Baudoin IV; #8 K.Jackson)Similar
Q4 7:33
3RD & 4
OPP 39
+3
22.6%
(07:38) No Huddle-Shotgun #21 K.Phillips rush middle for 3 yards gain to the UL 36 (#3 J.Dugger)Similar
Q4 7:00
4TH & 1
OPP 36
+4
20.2%
(07:04) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 B.Davenport rush middle for 4 yards gain to the UL 32 (#95 M.Baudoin IV), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 6:27
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+8
22.8%
(06:35) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 B.Davenport pass complete short left to #9 J.Scott caught at UL 25, for 8 yards to the UL 24 (#4 T.Skipper; #7 C.Flowers)Similar
Q4 5:58
2ND & 2
OPP 24
+7
22.4%
(06:05) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 B.Davenport pass complete short left to #9 J.Scott caught at UL 19, for 7 yards to the UL 17 (#7 C.Flowers), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 5:30
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+5
22.1%
(05:36) No Huddle-Shotgun #21 K.Phillips rush left for 5 yards gain to the UL 12 (#45 C.Kibodi)Similar
Q4 5:10
2ND & 5
OPP 12
+2
21.9%
(05:13) No Huddle-Shotgun #21 K.Phillips rush middle for 2 yards gain to the UL 10 (#3 J.Dugger; #90 K.Miller)Similar
Q4 4:32
3RD & 3
OPP 10
+4
18.2%
(04:36) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 B.Davenport rush right for 4 yards gain to the UL 06 (#6 T.Williams; #0 J.Lawson), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 4:14
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+4
19.4%
(04:19) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 K.Bullock rush middle for 4 yards gain to the UL 02 (#6 T.Williams; #21 M.Eleam)Similar
Q4 3:57
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
0
19.3%
(04:01) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 K.Bullock rush middle for 0 yards to the UL 02 (#6 T.Williams; #68 F.West Jr.)Similar
Q4 3:06
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
15.4%
(03:19) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 B.Davenport pass complete short right to #81 B.Long caught at UL 01, for 1 yard to the UL 01 (#6 T.Williams)Similar
Q4 2:47
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
0
12.2%
(02:47) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 K.Bullock rush middle for 0 yards to the UL 01 (#68 F.West Jr.; #17 A.Williams) PENALTY UL Offside (#7 C.Flowers). NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 2:41
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
0
9.3%
(02:44) Shotgun #3 K.Bullock rush middle for 0 yards to the UL 01 (#31 D.Fite; #68 F.West Jr.), TURNOVER ON DOWNSSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 18PUNT
7 plays · 5 yds · 0:4493% → 96%
Q4 2:39
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+2
7.4%
(02:39) Shotgun #3 Z.Perry rush middle for 2 yards gain to the UL 03 (#28 D.McKenzie; #10 D.Hughes)Similar
Q4 2:36
2ND & 8
OWN 3
+3
7.5%
(02:39) Shotgun #2 L.Winfield rush middle for 3 yards gain to the UL 06 (#28 D.McKenzie; #97 T.Thomas)Similar
Q4 2:29
3RD & 5
OWN 6
+4
5.8%
(02:32) Shotgun #2 L.Winfield rush middle for 4 yards gain to the UL 10 (#1 W.Miller; #28 D.McKenzie)Similar
Q4 1:55
4TH & 1
OWN 10
0
4.0%
(01:58) #92 N.Torney punt 43 yards to the USA47 fair catch by #1 D.Voisin at USA47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 19INT
2 plays · 6 yds · 0:105% → 5%
Q4 1:40
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+6
4.7%
(01:54) Shotgun #4 B.Davenport pass complete short left to #21 K.Phillips caught at USA43, for 6 yards to the UL 47 (#3 J.Dugger; #21 M.Eleam)Similar
Q4 1:30
2ND & 4
OPP 47
0
5.3%
(01:30) Shotgun #4 B.Davenport pass intercepted by #3 J.Dugger at UL 38, End Of PlaySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 20END OF GAME
4 plays · -5 yds · 0:4297% → 96%
Q4 1:14
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-1
3.4%
(01:19) Kneel down by Louisiana at UL 37 for loss of 1 yardSimilar
Q4 0:47
2ND & 11
OWN 37
-2
3.5%
(00:50) Kneel down by Louisiana at UL 35 for loss of 2 yardsSimilar
Q4 0:32
3RD & 13
OWN 35
-2
3.9%
(00:32) Kneel down by Louisiana at UL 33 for loss of 2 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 11:59
(12:08) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 B.Davenport pass complete deep left to #9 J.Scott caught at UL 29, for 64 yards to the UL 00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 11:59, 1ST DOWN #82 T.Thomas pass attempt Successful
+21.9
TD · Q2 0:11
(00:17) Shotgun #2 L.Winfield pass complete short right to #6 S.Sampson Jr. caught at USA00, for 17 yards to the USA00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 00:11, 1ST DOWN #95 T.Sterner kick attempt good (H: #92 N.Torney, LS: #48 H.Sims)
-14.7
TD · Q3 6:54
(06:57) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 B.Davenport rush middle for 5 yards gain to the UL 00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 06:54 #35 D.Little kick attempt good (H: #40 A.Pulkkinen, LS: #44 B.Turner)
+13.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com