YardLine - College football win probability

Louisiana 10 at Missouri 52

MIZ

2025 · Week 3 · Sep 13, 2025 · Memorial Stadium

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Win probability · MIZ

modelMIZ aheadUL aheadconfidence bandkey play

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UL · Drive 1PUNT · 5 plays · 5 yds

Q1 15:00

Oliver Robbins kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback

89.0%

0.0

Q1 14:49

Daniel Beale pass complete to Caden Jensen for 5 yds to the UL 30

86.9%

-2.1

Q1 14:28

Zylan Perry run for no gain to the UL 30

86.6%

-0.3

Q1 13:51

Daniel Beale pass incomplete to Shelton Sampson Jr.

86.6%

0.0

Q1 13:43

Nathan Torney punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Kevin Coleman Jr. at the MIZ 27

86.7%

+0.1

MIZ · Drive 2TD · 11 plays · 73 yds

Q1 13:31

Beau Pribula pass complete to Kevin Coleman Jr. for 4 yds to the MIZ 31

88.8%

+2.1

Q1 13:12

Ahmad Hardy run for 10 yds to the MIZ 41 for a 1ST down

88.8%

0.0

Q1 12:37

Ahmad Hardy run for 8 yds to the MIZ 49

88.8%

0.0

Q1 12:01

Ahmad Hardy run for 14 yds to the UL 37 for a 1ST down

89.1%

+0.2

Q1 11:14

Beau Pribula run for 4 yds to the UL 33

89.2%

+0.2

Q1 10:35

Beau Pribula pass complete to Kevin Coleman Jr. for 12 yds to the UL 21 for a 1ST down

89.2%

0.0

Q1 10:04

Timeout Missouri, clock 10:04

90.0%

+0.8

Q1 9:57

Jamal Roberts run for 7 yds to the UL 14

90.0%

0.0

Q1 9:29

Jamal Roberts run for 7 yds to the UL 7 for a 1ST down

90.0%

0.0

Q1 9:01

Ahmad Hardy run for no gain to the UL 7

90.0%

0.0

Q1 8:26

Ahmad Hardy run for 7 yds for a TD (Robert Meyer KICK)

94.1%

+4.1

UL · Drive 3PUNT · 5 plays · -2 yds

Q1 8:21

Oliver Robbins kickoff for 63 yds , Robert Williams return for 22 yds to the UL 24

94.1%

-0.1

Q1 8:14

Bill Davis run for a loss of 1 yard to the UL 23

94.2%

+0.2

Q1 7:39

Louisiana Penalty, (Yards) declined

94.2%

0.0

Q1 7:18

Daniel Beale pass incomplete to Shelton Sampson Jr.

94.2%

0.0

Q1 7:08

Nathan Torney punt for 40 yds , Kevin Coleman Jr. returns for 2 yds to the MIZ 40

94.3%

+0.1

MIZ · Drive 4TD · 8 plays · 60 yds

Q1 7:02

Ahmad Hardy run for 11 yds to the UL 49 for a 1ST down

93.8%

-0.5

Q1 6:17

Ahmad Hardy run for 6 yds to the UL 43

92.9%

-0.9

Q1 5:55

Ahmad Hardy run for 3 yds to the UL 40

92.9%

0.0

Q1 5:36

Ahmad Hardy run for 3 yds to the UL 37 for a 1ST down

92.9%

0.0

Q1 4:55

Beau Pribula pass complete to Jordon Harris for 20 yds to the UL 17 for a 1ST down

93.3%

+0.3

Q1 4:09

Beau Pribula run for 5 yds to the UL 12

93.3%

0.0

Q1 3:36

Jamal Roberts run for 1 yd to the UL 11

93.3%

+0.1

Q1 2:38

Beau Pribula pass complete to Marquis Johnson for 11 yds for a TD (Robert Meyer KICK)

97.5%

+4.2

UL · Drive 5PUNT · 5 plays · 9 yds

Q1 2:33

Oliver Robbins kickoff for 65 yds , Robert Williams return for 14 yds to the UL 14

97.4%

0.0

Q1 2:20

Lunch Winfield run for 9 yds to the UL 23

96.7%

-0.7

Q1 1:44

Lunch Winfield pass complete to Rahji Dennis for a loss of 1 yard to the UL 22

96.7%

0.0

Q1 1:26

Zylan Perry run for 1 yd to the UL 23

96.7%

0.0

Q1 0:39

Nathan Torney punt for 36 yds

96.7%

0.0

MIZ · Drive 6TD · 4 plays · 59 yds

Q1 0:30

Beau Pribula pass complete to Kevin Coleman Jr. for 20 yds to the UL 39 for a 1ST down

97.5%

+0.8

Q1 0:00

Beau Pribula pass complete to Kevin Coleman Jr. for 8 yds to the UL 31

97.5%

+0.1

Q2 14:53

Jamal Roberts run for 17 yds to the UL 14 for a 1ST down

97.5%

0.0

Q2 14:18

Beau Pribula run for 14 yds for a TD (Robert Meyer KICK)

99.3%

+1.7

UL · Drive 7PUNT · 7 plays · 7 yds

Q2 14:18

Oliver Robbins kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback

99.3%

0.0

Q2 14:10

Bill Davis run for a loss of 1 yard to the UL 24

97.8%

-1.5

Q2 13:37

(13:37) No Huddle-Shotgun Beale,Daniel pass incomplete deep right to Wade,KeDarius thrown to Mizzou45 broken up by Hall,Stephen PENALTY Mizzou Pass Interference (Hall,Stephen) 15 yards from Louis.24 to Louis.39, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.

97.8%

0.0

Q2 13:30

Daniel Beale pass incomplete to KeDarius Wade

97.8%

0.0

Q2 13:26

Daniel Beale pass incomplete to Bill Davis

97.8%

0.0

Q2 13:18

Daniel Beale sacked by Khalil Jacobs for a loss of 7 yards to the UL 32

97.8%

0.0

Q2 12:35

Nathan Torney punt for 42 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the MIZ 26

97.5%

-0.3

MIZ · Drive 8TD · 5 plays · 74 yds

Q2 12:22

Beau Pribula pass complete to Marquis Johnson for 7 yds to the MIZ 33

99.3%

+1.8

Q2 12:03

Ahmad Hardy run for 14 yds to the MIZ 47 for a 1ST down

99.3%

0.0

Q2 11:26

Beau Pribula pass complete to Kevin Coleman Jr. for 1 yd to the MIZ 48

99.3%

0.0

Q2 10:53

Ahmad Hardy run for 13 yds to the UL 39 for a 1ST down

99.3%

0.0

Q2 10:31

Beau Pribula pass complete to Jamal Roberts for 39 yds for a TD (Robert Meyer KICK)

99.0%

-0.2

UL · Drive 9PUNT · 6 plays · 16 yds

Q2 10:31

Oliver Robbins kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback

99.0%

0.0

Q2 10:18

Steven Blanco run for 16 yds to the UL 41 for a 1ST down

98.9%

-0.1

Q2 10:07

Daniel Beale pass incomplete to Shelton Sampson Jr.

98.9%

0.0

Q2 10:02

Daniel Beale pass incomplete to Caden Jensen

98.9%

0.0

Q2 9:58

Daniel Beale pass incomplete to KeDarius Wade

98.9%

0.0

Q2 9:51

Nathan Torney punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Kevin Coleman Jr. at the MIZ 17

98.9%

0.0

MIZ · Drive 10INT · 4 plays · -2 yds

Q2 9:44

Ahmad Hardy run for no gain to the MIZ 17

99.2%

+0.3

Q2 8:59

Beau Pribula sacked by Jaden Dugger for a loss of 7 yards to the MIZ 10

99.2%

0.0

Q2 8:29

(08:28) No Huddle-Shotgun Pribula,Beau pass incomplete short middle to Blood,Daniel thrown to Mizzou17 broken up by Lawson,Jordan PENALTY Louis. Offside (Lawson,Jordan) 5 yards from Mizzou10 to Mizzou15. NO PLAY.

99.2%

0.0

Q2 8:21

Beau Pribula pass intercepted Cameron Whitfield return for 1 yd to the MIZ 22

99.2%

0.0

UL · Drive 11FG · 4 plays · 5 yds

Q2 8:15

Zylan Perry run for 3 yds to the MIZ 19

98.9%

-0.3

Q2 7:39

Lunch Winfield run for 4 yds to the MIZ 15

98.9%

0.0

Q2 6:58

Zylan Perry run for a loss of 2 yards to the MIZ 17

98.9%

0.0

Q2 6:22

Tony Sterner 34 yd FG GOOD

98.8%

-0.1

MIZ · Drive 12TD · 3 plays · 75 yds

Q2 6:15

Logan Klotz kickoff for 62 yds , DaMarion Fowlkes return for 22 yds to the MIZ 25

98.8%

0.0

Q2 6:07

Ahmad Hardy run for 4 yds to the MIZ 29

99.1%

+0.2

Q2 5:41

Ahmad Hardy run for 71 yds for a TD (Robert Meyer KICK)

99.6%

+0.5

UL · Drive 13PUNT · 7 plays · -4 yds

Q2 5:33

Oliver Robbins kickoff for 59 yds , Robert Williams return for 33 yds to the UL 39

99.6%

0.0

Q2 5:00

PENALTY Louis. False Start (Gooch,J'Marion) 3 yards from Louis.06 to Louis.03. NO PLAY.

99.5%

-0.1

Q2 5:00

Bill Davis run for a loss of 1 yard to the UL 2

99.5%

0.0

Q2 5:00

Louisiana Penalty, (Yards) declined

99.5%

0.0

Q2 4:56

Lunch Winfield pass incomplete to Landon Strother

99.5%

0.0

Q2 4:43

Nathan Torney punt for 50 yds , Kevin Coleman Jr. returns for 7 yds to the UL 45

99.5%

0.0

Q2 4:43

Nathan Torney punt for 50 yds , Kevin Coleman Jr. returns for 7 yds to the MIZ 45

99.5%

0.0

MIZ · Drive 14PUNT · 5 plays · -6 yds

Q2 4:39

Beau Pribula pass incomplete to Donovan Olugbode

99.6%

+0.1

Q2 4:39

PENALTY Louis. Offside (Baudoin IV,Maxie) 5 yards from Mizzou45 to Mizzou50. NO PLAY.

99.6%

0.0

Q2 4:30

Beau Pribula sacked by Trae Tomlinson for a loss of 11 yards to the MIZ 39

99.6%

0.0

Q2 3:54

Beau Pribula pass incomplete to Marquis Johnson

99.6%

0.0

Q2 3:41

Connor Weselman punt for 45 yds

99.6%

0.0

UL · Drive 15TD · 1 play · 84 yds

Q2 3:27

Zylan Perry run for 84 yds for a TD (Tony Sterner KICK)

98.8%

-0.7

MIZ · Drive 16FG · 18 plays · 71 yds

Q2 3:27

Logan Klotz kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback

98.8%

0.0

Q2 3:13

Beau Pribula pass complete to Brett Norfleet for 2 yds to the MIZ 27

99.1%

+0.3

Q2 2:43

Ahmad Hardy run for 18 yds to the MIZ 45 for a 1ST down

99.1%

0.0

Q2 2:15

Ahmad Hardy run for 5 yds to the 50 yard line

99.1%

0.0

Q2 1:51

Jamal Roberts run for no gain to the 50 yard line

99.1%

0.0

Q2 1:18

Beau Pribula pass complete to Joshua Manning for 6 yds to the UL 44 for a 1ST down

99.1%

0.0

Q2 1:04

Beau Pribula pass complete to Kevin Coleman Jr. for 15 yds to the UL 29 for a 1ST down

99.1%

0.0

Q2 0:37

Beau Pribula pass complete to Joshua Manning for 5 yds to the UL 24

99.1%

0.0

Q2 0:37

Beau Pribula pass incomplete to Brett Norfleet

99.1%

0.0

Q2 0:31

Beau Pribula pass complete to Kevin Coleman Jr. for 10 yds to the UL 14 for a 1ST down

99.1%

0.0

Q2 0:28

Timeout Louisiana, clock 00:28

99.2%

+0.1

Q2 0:23

Jamal Roberts run for 6 yds to the UL 8

99.2%

0.0

Q2 0:23

Timeout Missouri, clock 00:23

99.3%

+0.1

Q2 0:18

Beau Pribula pass incomplete to Joshua Manning

99.2%

0.0

Q2 0:13

(00:13) No Huddle-Shotgun Pribula,Beau pass incomplete short left to Johnson,Marquis thrown to Louis.00 PENALTY Louis. Offside (Dugger,Jaden) 4 yards from Louis.08 to Louis.04, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.

99.3%

0.0

Q2 0:09

Beau Pribula pass incomplete to Joshua Manning

99.3%

0.0

Q2 0:05

Beau Pribula pass incomplete to Brett Norfleet

99.3%

0.0

Q2 0:00

Robert Meyer 22 yd FG GOOD

99.6%

+0.4

MIZ · Drive 17TD · 11 plays · 75 yds

Q3 15:00

Brek Schultz kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback

99.3%

-0.3

Q3 14:52

Ahmad Hardy run for 20 yds to the MIZ 45 for a 1ST down

99.8%

+0.5

Q3 14:21

Missouri Penalty, (-10 Yards) to the MIZ 36

99.8%

0.0

Q3 13:49

Beau Pribula pass complete to Kevin Coleman Jr. for 14 yds to the 50 yard line

99.8%

0.0

Q3 13:38

Ahmad Hardy run for 7 yds to the UL 43 for a 1ST down

99.8%

0.0

Q3 13:09

Jamal Roberts run for 3 yds to the UL 40

99.8%

0.0

Q3 12:42

Jamal Roberts run for 5 yds to the UL 35

99.8%

0.0

Q3 12:02

Ahmad Hardy run for 3 yds to the UL 32 for a 1ST down

99.8%

0.0

Q3 11:20

Beau Pribula run for no gain to the UL 32

99.8%

0.0

Q3 10:41

Ahmad Hardy run for 25 yds to the UL 7 for a 1ST down

99.8%

0.0

Q3 10:02

Ahmad Hardy run for 7 yds for a TD (Robert Meyer KICK)

99.9%

+0.1

UL · Drive 18PUNT · 6 plays · -7 yds

Q3 9:56

PENALTY Louis. False Start (Broussard,Matthew) 5 yards from Louis.21 to Louis.16. NO PLAY.

99.7%

-0.2

Q3 9:56

Oliver Robbins kickoff for 56 yds , Robert Williams return for 12 yds to the UL 21

99.9%

+0.2

Q3 9:47

Bill Davis run for 5 yds to the UL 21

99.6%

-0.3

Q3 9:18

Daniel Beale sacked by Damon Wilson II for a loss of 7 yards to the UL 14

99.7%

+0.1

Q3 8:38

Bill Davis run for no gain to the UL 14

99.6%

-0.1

Q3 8:01

Nathan Torney punt for 45 yds , DaMarion Fowlkes returns for no gain to the MIZ 40

99.6%

0.0

MIZ · Drive 19MISSED FG · 8 plays · 37 yds

Q3 7:50

Marquise Davis run for 1 yd to the MIZ 41

99.9%

+0.3

Q3 7:13

Marquise Davis run for 16 yds to the UL 43 for a 1ST down

99.9%

0.0

Q3 6:38

Marquise Davis run for 5 yds to the UL 38

99.9%

0.0

Q3 5:53

Marquise Davis run for 17 yds to the UL 21 for a 1ST down

99.9%

0.0

Q3 5:16

Marquise Davis run for 3 yds to the UL 18

99.9%

0.0

Q3 4:28

Marquise Davis run for a loss of 1 yard to the UL 19

99.9%

0.0

Q3 3:34

Matt Zollers pass complete to Daniel Blood for 4 yds to the UL 23

99.9%

0.0

Q3 3:15

Robert Meyer 41 yd FG MISSED

99.9%

0.0

UL · Drive 20PUNT · 4 plays · 0 yds

Q3 3:08

Lunch Winfield pass incomplete to Robert Williams

99.8%

-0.1

Q3 3:03

Lunch Winfield pass incomplete to Charles Robertson

99.8%

0.0

Q3 2:58

Lunch Winfield pass incomplete to Shelton Sampson Jr.

99.8%

0.0

Q3 2:45

Nathan Torney punt for 50 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the MIZ 27

99.8%

0.0

MIZ · Drive 21TD · 18 plays · 73 yds

Q3 2:37

Marquise Davis run for 1 yd to the MIZ 28

99.9%

+0.1

Q3 1:45

Matt Zollers pass complete to Shaun Terry II for 9 yds to the MIZ 37 for a 1ST down

99.9%

0.0

Q3 1:13

Marquise Davis run for 8 yds to the MIZ 45

99.9%

0.0

Q3 0:00

Marquise Davis run for 2 yds to the MIZ 47 for a 1ST down

99.9%

0.0

Q4 14:51

Marquise Davis run for 3 yds to the 50 yard line

99.9%

0.0

Q4 14:13

Marquise Davis run for 5 yds to the UL 45

99.9%

0.0

Q4 13:30

Marquise Davis run for 9 yds to the UL 36 for a 1ST down

99.9%

0.0

Q4 13:30

Timeout Missouri, clock 13:30

99.7%

-0.2

Q4 12:29

Matt Zollers run for a loss of 4 yards to the UL 40 Matt Zollers fumbled, recovered by UL Matt Zollers

99.7%

0.0

Q4 12:11

Marquise Davis run for 12 yds to the UL 28

99.7%

0.0

Q4 11:34

Marquise Davis run for 1 yd to the UL 27

99.8%

+0.1

Q4 11:02

Marquise Davis run for 9 yds to the UL 18 for a 1ST down

99.8%

0.0

Q4 10:24

Marquise Davis run for 4 yds to the UL 14

99.8%

0.0

Q4 9:42

Brendon Haygood run for 1 yd to the UL 13

99.8%

0.0

Q4 8:54

Brendon Haygood run for 8 yds to the UL 5 for a 1ST down

99.8%

0.0

Q4 8:13

Brendon Haygood run for 2 yds to the UL 3

99.8%

0.0

Q4 7:36

Brendon Haygood run for 1 yd to the UL 2

99.8%

0.0

Q4 7:02

Marquise Davis run for 2 yds for a TD (Robert Meyer KICK)

99.9%

0.0

UL · Drive 22PUNT · 10 plays · 5 yds

Q4 7:02

Oliver Robbins kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback

99.9%

0.0

Q4 6:54

Steven Blanco run for 5 yds to the UL 30

99.7%

-0.1

Q4 6:21

Steven Blanco run for 4 yds to the UL 34

99.7%

0.0

Q4 5:35

Steven Blanco run for 3 yds to the UL 37 for a 1ST down

99.7%

0.0

Q4 5:02

Steven Blanco run for no gain to the UL 37

99.7%

0.0

Q4 4:24

(04:28) No Huddle-Shotgun Blanco,Steven rush right for 10 yards gain to the Louis.47 (Phillips III,Mose) PENALTY Louis. Holding (Williams,Bryant) 10 yards from Louis.37 to Louis.27. NO PLAY.

99.7%

0.0

Q4 3:58

Steven Blanco run for 3 yds to the UL 30

99.7%

-0.1

Q4 3:16

Steven Blanco run for no gain to the UL 30

99.7%

0.0

Q4 2:39

Timeout Louisiana, clock 02:39

99.7%

0.0

Q4 2:32

Brek Schultz punt for 48 yds, fair catch by DaMarion Fowlkes at the MIZ 22

99.7%

0.0

MIZ · Drive 23END OF GAME · 4 plays · 21 yds

Q4 2:20

Brett Brown run for 5 yds to the MIZ 27

99.8%

+0.1

Q4 1:50

Marquise Davis run for 2 yds to the MIZ 29

99.8%

0.0

Q4 1:09

Marquise Davis run for 10 yds to the MIZ 39 for a 1ST down

99.8%

0.0

Q4 0:00

Marquise Davis run for 4 yds to the MIZ 43

99.8%

0.0

Biggest swings

TD · Q1 2:38

Beau Pribula pass complete to Marquis Johnson for 11 yds for a TD (Robert Meyer KICK)

+4.2

TD · Q1 8:26

Ahmad Hardy run for 7 yds for a TD (Robert Meyer KICK)

+4.1

KEY PLAY · Q1 14:49

Daniel Beale pass complete to Caden Jensen for 5 yds to the UL 30

-2.1