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TROY

Troy 30 at Louisiana 51

UL
2024 · Week 13 · Nov 23, 2024 · Cajun Field
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Win probability · UL
modelUL aheadTROY aheadconfidence bandkey playUL scoreTROY score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDFGTDFGFGTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 3:19 · Nathan Torney punt for 33 yds , Devonte Ross returns for no gain to the TROY 18 , returns for no gain to the TROY 18
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+34.5+17.30−17.3−34.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 115Home team on offense+20.5Pregame prior+7.0Score differential+9.5Garbage-time factor+10.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+3.5Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+1.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 12:23: Chandler Fields pass complete to Lance LeGendre for 44 yds for a TD (Kenneth Almendares KICK) — UL win probability +7.6 pts (now 76%) (top driver: UL has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 2:16: Bill Davis run for 3 yds for a TD (Kenneth Almendares KICK) — UL win probability +8.4 pts (now 89%) (top driver: UL has the ball).
  3. FG · Q2 0:00: Kenneth Almendares 32 yd FG GOOD — UL win probability +5.9 pts (now 95%) (top driver: UL has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 5:45: Matthew Caldwell pass complete to Brody Dalton for 6 yds for a TD (Matthew Caldwell pass to Landon Parker for Two-Point Conversion) — TROY win probability +9.0 pts (now 13%) (top driver: TROY has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 11:31: Matthew Caldwell pass complete to Trae Swartz for 1 yd for a TD (Matthew Caldwell pass to Devonte Ross for Two-Point Conversion) — TROY win probability +11.8 pts (now 20%) (top driver: TROY has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UL made the numbers' call on 4 of 6TROY made the numbers' call on 6 of 8
  1. Q1 12:52TROY 4th & 5 at TROY 42, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 29.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.9%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.9%
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:47TROY 4th & 2 at TROY 33, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.7%−<0.1
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.7%
    average punt
  3. Q1 8:09UL 4th & 23 at UL 14, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 71.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.6%−0.7
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    71.3%
    average punt
  4. Q1 2:59UL 4th & 7 at UL 28, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 67.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.5%−0.3
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    67.8%
    average punt
  5. Q1 0:00TROY 4th & 4 at UL 30, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 33.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    33.4%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    33.2%−0.3
    56% to make
    Punt
    32.6%−0.8
    average punt
  6. Q2 10:56TROY 4th & 5 at TROY 30, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.4%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.5%
    average punt
  7. Q2 8:08UL 4th & 6 at TROY 21, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 74.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.9%−0.2
    38% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    74.1%
    74% to make
    Punt
    70.8%−3.3
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:53TROY 4th & 6 at UL 47, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 14.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    14.0%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    13.9%−0.2
    average punt
  9. Q3 11:06UL 4th & 4 at TROY 29, up 20
    Close callKicked a field goal · 94.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.5%
    48% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    94.2%−0.3
    58% to make
    Punt
    91.9%−2.6
    average punt
  10. Q3 3:19UL 4th & 9 at midfield, up 15
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 92.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.5%−0.3
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    92.8%
    average punt
  11. Q4 11:31TROY 4th & 1 at UL 1, down 15
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 7.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    7.5%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    5.1%−2.4
    94% to make
    Punt
    -0.3%−7.8
    average punt
  12. Q4 9:52TROY 4th & 6 at TROY 39, down 14
    Close callPunted · 7.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.8%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    6.5%−0.3
    average punt
  13. Q4 4:48UL 4th & 7 at TROY 48, up 14
    Close callPunted · 96.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.6%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    96.6%−<0.1
    average punt
  14. Q4 2:46TROY 4th & 20 at TROY 3, down 14
    Close callWent for it · 3.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.4%−0.1
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    2.6%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UL made the numbers' call on 4 of 5TROY made the numbers' call on 3 of 4
  1. Q1 9:44UL Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    71.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    71.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 4:24TROY Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    30.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    30.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 0:00TROY Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    37.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    37.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 13:31UL Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    66.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    66.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 12:23UL Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    71.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    71.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 2:16UL Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    84.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    84.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 5:45TROY Touchdown, down 17 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    8.1%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    8.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 11:31TROY Touchdown, down 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · converted
    Kick
    14.9%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    15.0%
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 1:09UL Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.5%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.5%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
TROYDrive 1PUNT
6 plays · 17 yds · 2:0828% → 28%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
72.5%
Matthew Caldwell pass complete to Roman Mothershed for 8 yds to the TROY 33Similar
Q1 14:27
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+4
72.4%
Damien Taylor run for 4 yds to the TROY 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:53
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+4
72.3%
Matthew Caldwell pass complete to Roman Mothershed for 4 yds to the TROY 41Similar
Q1 13:31
2ND & 6
OWN 41
0
72.1%
Matthew Caldwell pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:25
3RD & 6
OWN 41
+1
72.2%
Matthew Caldwell pass complete to Devonte Ross for 1 yd to the TROY 42Similar
Q1 12:52
4TH & 5
OWN 42
0
72.1%
Robert Cole punt for 43 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 2TD
6 plays · 85 yds · 3:0372% → 74%
Q1 12:47
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+46
72.1%
Chandler Fields pass complete to Jacob Bernard for 46 yds to the TROY 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:18
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+2
72.4%
Dre'lyn Washington run for 2 yds to the TROY 37Similar
Q1 11:48
2ND & 8
OPP 37
+17
72.3%
Chandler Fields pass complete to Caden Jensen for 17 yds to the TROY 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:11
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+1
72.3%
Dre'lyn Washington run for 1 yd to the TROY 19Similar
Q1 10:25
2ND & 9
OPP 19
-1
72.3%
Chandler Fields sacked by Justin Powe for a loss of 1 yard to the TROY 20Similar
Q1 9:44
3RD & 10
OPP 20
+20
73.6%
Chandler Fields pass complete to Tavion Smith for 20 yds for a TD (Kenneth Almendares KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 0:5227% → 27%
Q1 9:39
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
73.0%
Matthew Caldwell pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:33
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+8
73.2%
Matthew Caldwell run for 8 yds to the TROY 33Similar
Q1 8:55
3RD & 2
OWN 33
0
73.1%
Matthew Caldwell pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:47
4TH & 2
OWN 33
0
73.3%
Robert Cole punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Jacob Bernard at the UL 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · -13 yds · 0:3473% → 73%
Q1 8:43
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+1
73.3%
Chandler Fields pass complete to Lance LeGendre for 1 yd to the UL 28Similar
Q1 8:25
2ND & 9
OWN 28
0
73.4%
Chandler Fields pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:16
3RD & 9
OWN 28
-14
73.2%
Louisiana Penalty, Intentional Grounding (Chandler Fields) to the UL 14Similar
Q1 8:09
4TH & 23
OWN 14
0
72.9%
Nathan Torney punt for 35 yds, downed at the UL 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 5TD
8 plays · 34 yds · 3:3128% → 31%
Q1 7:55
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+5
72.5%
Damien Taylor run for 5 yds to the UL 29Similar
Q1 7:30
2ND & 5
OPP 29
+8
72.4%
Matthew Caldwell pass complete to Devonte Ross for 8 yds to the UL 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:58
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+1
72.4%
Gerald Green run for 1 yd to the UL 20Similar
Q1 6:21
2ND & 9
OPP 20
+8
72.3%
Matthew Caldwell run for 8 yds to the UL 12Similar
Q1 5:42
3RD & 1
OPP 12
+2
72.7%
Matthew Caldwell run for 2 yds to the UL 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:58
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+6
72.3%
Gerald Green run for 6 yds to the UL 4Similar
Q1 4:24
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
69.1%
Matthew Caldwell pass complete to Jackson Worley for 4 yds for a TD (Scott Taylor Renfroe KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 1:1471% → 70%
Q1 4:13
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
70.7%
Dre'lyn Washington run for 1 yd to the UL 26Similar
Q1 3:41
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
70.5%
Chandler Fields pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:30
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+2
70.1%
Chandler Fields run for 2 yds to the UL 28Similar
Q1 2:59
4TH & 7
OWN 28
0
69.7%
Nathan Torney punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Devonte Ross at the TROY 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 7TD
7 plays · 68 yds · 2:5230% → 37%
Q1 2:52
1ST & 10
OWN 32
-2
69.9%
Damien Taylor run for a loss of 2 yards to the TROY 30Similar
Q1 2:16
2ND & 12
OWN 30
+20
69.6%
Matthew Caldwell pass complete to Trae Swartz for 20 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:42
1ST & 10
50
+14
68.2%
Matthew Caldwell pass complete to Devonte Ross for 14 yds to the UL 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:11
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+4
68.0%
Damien Taylor run for 4 yds to the UL 32Similar
Q1 0:37
2ND & 6
OPP 32
+2
67.5%
Matthew Caldwell run for 2 yds to the UL 30Similar
Q1 0:06
3RD & 4
OPP 30
0
67.7%
Matthew Caldwell pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 0:00
4TH & 4
OPP 30
+30
63.4%
Matthew Caldwell pass complete to Devonte Ross for 30 yds for a TD (Scott Taylor Renfroe KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 8TD
4 plays · 55 yds · 1:1365% → 72%
Q2 14:44
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+14
65.2%
Bill Davis run for 14 yds to the TROY 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:09
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+38
65.5%
Chandler Fields pass complete to Tavion Smith for 38 yds to the TROY 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
66.1%
Chandler Fields run for 2 yds to the TROY 1Similar
Q2 13:31
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
71.9%
Bill Davis run for 1 yd for a TD (Kenneth Almendares KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 9INT
3 plays · -3 yds · 0:2332% → 32%
Q2 12:54
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+2
68.4%
Matthew Caldwell pass complete to Jordan Lovett for 2 yds to the TROY 32Similar
Q2 12:45
2ND & 8
OWN 32
-5
68.2%
CALDWELL, Matthew pass to the right incomplete intended for LOVETT, Jordan thrown to the TRO40, clock 12:45. PENALTY TRO Ineligible Receiver Downfield on Pass on KING, Daniel enforced 5 yards from the TRO32 to the TRO27 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 12:31
2ND & 13
OWN 27
0
68.5%
Matthew Caldwell pass intercepted Keyon Martin return for no gain to the TROY 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 10TD
1 play · 44 yds · 0:0076% → 76%
Q2 12:23
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+44
76.1%
Chandler Fields pass complete to Lance LeGendre for 44 yds for a TD (Kenneth Almendares KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 11PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:2525% → 24%
Q2 12:21
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
74.6%
Gerald Green run for 8 yds to the TROY 33Similar
Q2 11:45
2ND & 2
OWN 33
-3
73.7%
Matthew Caldwell pass complete to Roman Mothershed for a loss of 3 yards to the TROY 30Similar
Q2 11:01
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
74.9%
Matthew Caldwell pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:56
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
75.6%
Robert Cole punt for 28 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 12FG
7 plays · 37 yds · 2:4276% → 77%
Q2 10:50
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+14
76.2%
Bill Davis run for 14 yds to the TROY 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:14
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+19
76.5%
Chandler Fields pass complete to Harvey Broussard for 19 yds to the TROY 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:38
1ST & 10
OPP 25
-5
77.0%
Louisiana Penalty, Illegal Formation (-5 Yards) to the TROY 30Similar
Q2 9:33
1ST & 15
OPP 30
+8
76.8%
Chandler Fields pass complete to Terrance Carter for 8 yds to the TROY 22Similar
Q2 8:50
2ND & 7
OPP 22
+1
77.2%
Chandler Fields pass complete to Terrance Carter for 1 yd to the TROY 21Similar
Q2 8:12
3RD & 6
OPP 21
0
77.4%
Chandler Fields pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:08
4TH & 6
OPP 21
+38
77.4%
Kenneth Almendares 38 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 13INT
6 plays · 18 yds · 2:5722% → 23%
Q2 8:02
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
77.7%
Damien Taylor run for 5 yds to the TROY 30Similar
Q2 7:23
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+6
77.4%
Damien Taylor run for 6 yds to the TROY 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:40
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-5
77.5%
CALDWELL, Matthew scrambles to the left for a gain of 4 yards to the TRO40, out of bounds, clock 06:40. PENALTY Before the snap, TRO Illegal Shift on TAYLOR, Damien enforced 5 yards from the TRO36 to the TRO31. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 6:20
1ST & 15
OWN 31
+4
78.1%
Damien Taylor run for 4 yds to the TROY 35Similar
Q2 5:42
2ND & 11
OWN 35
+8
78.2%
Damien Taylor run for 8 yds to the TROY 43Similar
Q2 5:05
3RD & 3
OWN 43
0
77.2%
Matthew Caldwell pass intercepted Keyon Martin return for no gain to the TROY 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 14TD
6 plays · 49 yds · 2:4480% → 89%
Q2 5:00
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+2
79.7%
Dre'lyn Washington run for 2 yds to the TROY 47Similar
Q2 4:22
2ND & 8
OPP 47
+34
79.9%
Chandler Fields run for 34 yds to the TROY 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:45
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+6
80.5%
Bill Davis run for 6 yds to the TROY 7Similar
Q2 3:04
2ND & 4
OPP 7
0
81.1%
Bill Davis run for no gain to the TROY 7Similar
Q2 2:38
3RD & 4
OPP 7
+2
80.9%
QB Keeper FIELDS, Chandler rush up the middle for a gain of 2 yards to the TRO5, End of Play, clock 02:38. PENALTY TRO Unnecessary Roughness on MEDINA, Luis enforced half the distance from the goal, 3 yards from the TRO6 to the TRO3 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 2:16
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
89.3%
Bill Davis run for 3 yds for a TD (Kenneth Almendares KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 15DOWNS
9 plays · 16 yds · 1:1914% → 14%
Q2 2:12
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
86.5%
Gerald Green run for 5 yds to the TROY 30Similar
Q2 1:59
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+7
85.7%
Matthew Caldwell pass complete to Jordan Lovett for 7 yds to the TROY 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:53
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+12
85.5%
Matthew Caldwell pass complete to Landon Parker for 12 yds to the TROY 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:29
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+4
85.0%
Matthew Caldwell pass complete to Devonte Ross for 4 yds to the UL 47Similar
Q2 1:04
2ND & 6
OPP 47
0
84.8%
Matthew Caldwell pass complete to Brody Dalton for no gain to the UL 47Similar
Q2 0:56
3RD & 6
OPP 47
0
85.3%
Matthew Caldwell pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:53
4TH & 6
OPP 47
-12
86.1%
Matthew Caldwell sacked by Jordan Lawson and Mason Narcisse for a loss of 12 yards to the TROY 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 16FG
9 plays · 26 yds · 0:4890% → 95%
Q2 0:48
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+7
90.1%
Bill Davis run for 7 yds to the TROY 34Similar
Q2 0:45
2ND & 3
OPP 34
0
90.4%
Chandler Fields pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:35
3RD & 3
OPP 34
+14
90.7%
Chandler Fields pass complete to Terrance Carter for 14 yds to the TROY 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:23
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
90.1%
Chandler Fields run for no gain to the TROY 20Similar
Q2 0:14
2ND & 10
OPP 20
+5
88.5%
Chandler Fields pass complete to Jacob Bernard for 5 yds to the TROY 15Similar
Q2 0:00
3RD & 5
OPP 15
+32
94.5%
Kenneth Almendares 32 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 17FG
9 plays · 46 yds · 3:4894% → 95%
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+27
94.0%
Chandler Fields pass complete to Terrance Carter for 27 yds to the TROY 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:27
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+2
94.5%
Bill Davis run for 2 yds to the TROY 46Similar
Q3 14:01
2ND & 8
OPP 46
+5
94.6%
Troy Penalty, Disconcerting Signals on WILLIAMS, Jah-Mal enforced (5 Yards) to the TROY 41Similar
Q3 13:45
2ND & 3
OPP 41
+6
94.5%
Bill Davis run for 6 yds to the TROY 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:06
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
94.8%
Bill Davis run for no gain to the TROY 35Similar
Q3 12:32
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+2
95.1%
Chandler Fields run for 2 yds to the TROY 33Similar
Q3 12:09
3RD & 8
OPP 33
-5
95.1%
Louisiana Penalty, False Start (Terrance Carter) to the TROY 38Similar
Q3 11:48
3RD & 13
OPP 38
+9
94.9%
Chandler Fields pass complete to Lance LeGendre for 9 yds to the TROY 29Similar
Q3 11:06
4TH & 4
OPP 29
+46
94.9%
Kenneth Almendares 46 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 18TD
11 plays · 83 yds · 5:075% → 13%
Q3 10:52
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+16
94.9%
Damien Taylor run for 16 yds to the TROY 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:18
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+8
94.9%
Matthew Caldwell pass complete to Brody Dalton for 8 yds to the TROY 41Similar
Q3 9:45
2ND & 2
OWN 41
+14
94.9%
Matthew Caldwell pass complete to Landon Parker for 14 yds to the UL 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:13
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
95.1%
Matthew Caldwell pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:07
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+6
95.1%
Damien Taylor run for 6 yds to the UL 39Similar
Q3 8:28
3RD & 4
OPP 39
+5
95.8%
Matthew Caldwell pass complete to Devonte Ross for 5 yds to the UL 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:56
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+29
95.5%
Landon Parker pass complete to Matthew Caldwell for 29 yds to the UL 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:21
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
-1
95.5%
Damien Taylor run for a loss of 1 yard to the UL 6Similar
Q3 6:38
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+5
95.7%
Damien Taylor run for 5 yds to the UL 1Similar
Q3 6:02
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
-5
96.4%
Troy Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the UL 6Similar
Q3 5:45
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
87.3%
Matthew Caldwell pass complete to Brody Dalton for 6 yds for a TD (Matthew Caldwell pass to Landon Parker for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 19PUNT
7 plays · 35 yds · 2:1591% → 93%
Q3 5:34
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+19
90.7%
Chandler Fields pass complete to Lance LeGendre for 19 yds to the UL 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:10
1ST & 10
OWN 34
-1
92.3%
Bill Davis run for a loss of 1 yard to the UL 33Similar
Q3 4:34
2ND & 11
OWN 33
+16
92.4%
Chandler Fields pass complete to Lance LeGendre for 16 yds to the UL 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:10
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+1
93.4%
Bill Davis run for 1 yd to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 3:33
2ND & 9
50
0
93.5%
Chandler Fields pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:27
3RD & 9
50
0
93.2%
Chandler Fields pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:19
4TH & 9
50
+33
92.7%
Nathan Torney punt for 33 yds , Devonte Ross returns for no gain to the TROY 18 , returns for no gain to the TROY 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 20TD
13 plays · 82 yds · 6:4110% → 20%
Q3 3:12
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+2
90.2%
Gerald Green run for 2 yds to the TROY 20Similar
Q3 2:35
2ND & 8
OWN 20
+9
90.9%
Gerald Green run for 9 yds to the TROY 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:59
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+2
91.1%
Damien Taylor run for 2 yds to the TROY 31Similar
Q3 1:19
2ND & 8
OWN 31
+23
91.4%
Matthew Caldwell pass complete to Devonte Ross for 23 yds to the UL 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:42
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+19
91.1%
Matthew Caldwell pass complete to Brody Dalton for 19 yds to the UL 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:04
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
90.1%
Landon Parker pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 27
+6
90.7%
Matthew Caldwell run for 6 yds to the UL 21Similar
Q4 14:52
3RD & 4
OPP 21
+5
91.0%
Matthew Caldwell run for 5 yds to the UL 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:08
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+14
90.3%
Devonte Ross run for 14 yds to the UL 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:35
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
90.5%
Gerald Green run for 1 yd to the UL 1Similar
Q4 12:52
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
90.9%
Matthew Caldwell run for no gain to the UL 1Similar
Q4 12:12
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
91.8%
Damien Taylor run for no gain to the UL 1Similar
Q4 11:31
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
80.0%
Matthew Caldwell pass complete to Trae Swartz for 1 yd for a TD (Matthew Caldwell pass to Devonte Ross for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 21PUNT
6 plays · 14 yds · 1:198% → 5%
Q4 11:06
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
92.1%
Matthew Caldwell pass complete to Devonte Ross for 10 yds to the TROY 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:36
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
92.1%
Damien Taylor run for 4 yds to the TROY 39Similar
Q4 10:03
2ND & 6
OWN 39
0
91.9%
Matthew Caldwell pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:00
3RD & 6
OWN 39
0
92.1%
Matthew Caldwell pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:52
4TH & 6
OWN 39
0
92.4%
Robert Cole punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Jacob Bernard at the UL 20Similar
Q4 9:47
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-10
95.4%
DAVIS, Bill rush up the middle for a gain of 6 yards to the UL26 (CONERLY-GOODLY, Ian;WILLIAMS, Jah-Mal), clock 09:47. PENALTY UL Holding on BURTON, Landon enforced 10 yards from the UL20 to the UL10 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 22PUNT
9 plays · 32 yds · 4:4495% → 97%
Q4 9:32
1ST & 20
OWN 10
+3
95.3%
Bill Davis run for 3 yds to the UL 13Similar
Q4 8:51
2ND & 17
OWN 13
+20
95.4%
Chandler Fields pass complete to Lance LeGendre for 20 yds to the UL 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:15
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+3
95.8%
Bill Davis run for 3 yds to the UL 36Similar
Q4 7:29
2ND & 7
OWN 36
+13
96.0%
Chandler Fields pass complete to Terrance Carter for 13 yds to the UL 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:52
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+3
96.4%
Bill Davis run for 3 yds to the TROY 48Similar
Q4 6:05
2ND & 7
OPP 48
-1
96.7%
Bill Davis run for a loss of 1 yard to the TROY 49Similar
Q4 5:22
3RD & 8
OPP 49
+6
96.8%
Chandler Fields pass complete to Caden Jensen for 6 yds to the TROY 43Similar
Q4 5:02
4TH & 2
OPP 43
-5
96.7%
Louisiana Penalty, False Start (AJ Gillie) to the TROY 48Similar
Q4 4:48
4TH & 7
OPP 48
0
96.8%
Nathan Torney punt for 45 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 23DOWNS
9 plays · 0 yds · 1:595% → 2%
Q4 4:45
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+6
95.0%
Matthew Caldwell pass complete to Landon Parker for 6 yds to the TROY 9Similar
Q4 4:22
2ND & 4
OWN 9
-5
95.8%
Troy Penalty, False Start (TEAM) to the TROY 4Similar
Q4 4:09
2ND & 9
OWN 4
+8
95.8%
Matthew Caldwell pass complete to Landon Parker for 8 yds to the TROY 12Similar
Q4 3:48
3RD & 1
OWN 12
+1
95.7%
Damien Taylor run for 1 yd to the TROY 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:12
1ST & 10
OWN 13
0
95.9%
Matthew Caldwell pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:08
2ND & 10
OWN 13
-10
95.9%
Matthew Caldwell sacked by Jordan Lawson for a loss of 10 yards to the TROY 3Similar
Q4 2:53
3RD & 20
OWN 3
0
97.7%
Matthew Caldwell pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:46
4TH & 20
OWN 3
0
97.7%
Matthew Caldwell pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 24TD
4 plays · 3 yds · 1:3098% → 100%
Q4 2:39
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+1
98.2%
Bill Davis run for 1 yd to the TROY 2Similar
Q4 2:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
98.6%
Bill Davis run for 1 yd to the TROY 1Similar
Q4 1:09
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
99.8%
Bill Davis 1 Yd Run (Kenneth Almendares Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 25FUMBLE
5 plays · 32 yds · 0:341% → 1%
Q4 1:04
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+10
99.5%
Matthew Caldwell pass complete to Gerald Green for 10 yds to the TROY 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:49
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
99.5%
Matthew Caldwell pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:42
2ND & 10
OWN 26
0
99.5%
Matthew Caldwell pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:36
3RD & 10
OWN 26
+13
99.5%
Matthew Caldwell run for 13 yds to the TROY 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:30
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+9
99.5%
Matthew Caldwell pass complete to Gerald Green for 9 yds Gerald Green fumbled, recovered by UL Tyrone Lewis Jr. T. Lewis Jr. return for 0 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 26END OF GAME
1 play · -1 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 0:20
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-1
99.8%
(00:20) [NH] Kneel down by TEAM at TRO49 (team loss of 1), clock 00:17.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 11:31
Matthew Caldwell pass complete to Trae Swartz for 1 yd for a TD (Matthew Caldwell pass to Devonte Ross for Two-Point Conversion)
-11.8
TD · Q3 5:45
Matthew Caldwell pass complete to Brody Dalton for 6 yds for a TD (Matthew Caldwell pass to Landon Parker for Two-Point Conversion)
-9
TD · Q2 2:16
Bill Davis run for 3 yds for a TD (Kenneth Almendares KICK)
+8.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com