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Win probability · UL
modelUL aheadGRAM aheadconfidence bandkey playUL scoreGRAM score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 12:01 · Ben Wooldridge sacked by Blake Davis for a loss of 5 yards to the GRAM 8
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 9:04: Dre'lyn Washington run for 6 yds for a TD (Kenneth Almendares KICK) — UL win probability +1.7 pts (now 74%) (top driver: UL has the ball).
- TD · Q2 13:30: Ben Wooldridge pass complete to Harvey Broussard for 13 yds for a TD (Kenneth Almendares KICK) — UL win probability +5.3 pts (now 81%) (top driver: UL has the ball).
- TD · Q2 10:07: Myles Crawley pass intercepted Caleb Kibodi return for 50 yds for a TD (Kenneth Almendares KICK) — UL win probability +8.2 pts (now 88%) (top driver: GRAM has the ball).
- TD · Q2 4:06: Ben Wooldridge pass complete to Tavion Smith for 56 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed) — UL win probability +4.5 pts (now 97%) (top driver: UL has the ball).
- TD · Q3 4:35: Ke'travion Hargrove run for 1 yd for a TD (Reed Harradine KICK) — GRAM win probability +1.3 pts (now 2%) (top driver: GRAM has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
UL made the numbers' call on 3 of 3GRAM made the numbers' call on 4 of 7
- Q1 12:33GRAM 4th & 3 at UL 49, tiedClose callPunted · 49.7% before the snapGo for it49.7%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call49.7%−<0.1average punt
- Q1 5:20GRAM 4th & 5 at UL 31, down 7Close callKicked a field goal · 45.1% before the snapGo for it45.1%41% to convertField goalTheir call45.0%−0.154% to makePunt44.8%−0.3average punt
- Q2 7:15GRAM 4th & 5 at GRAM 41, down 21Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.3% before the snapGo for it18.1%−0.641% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call18.7%average punt
- Q2 2:00GRAM 4th & 16 at GRAM 11, down 27Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.6% before the snapGo for it1.2%−3.014% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call4.1%average punt
- Q2 0:39UL 4th & 10 at GRAM 24, up 27Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 96.0% before the snapGo for it95.0%−1.028% to convertField goalTheir call96.0%68% to makePunt92.5%−3.5average punt
- Q3 11:51GRAM 4th & 6 at GRAM 48, down 30Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.7% before the snapGo for it1.7%−<0.140% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.7%average punt
- Q4 12:01UL 4th & 2 at GRAM 3, up 30Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.7% before the snapGo for itTheir call99.7%49% to convertField goal99.6%−0.193% to makePunt99.1%−0.6average punt
- Q4 9:35GRAM 4th & 3 at GRAM 15, down 30Close callPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.1%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.1%−<0.1average punt
- Q4 3:33UL 4th & 5 at GRAM 10, up 30Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.9% before the snapGo for it99.9%−<0.137% to convertField goalTheir call99.9%88% to makePunt99.5%−0.4average punt
- Q4 1:55GRAM 4th & 13 at UL 33, down 33Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.0%−<0.121% to convertField goalTheir call0.1%49% to makePunt0.0%−<0.1average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UL made the numbers' call on 4 of 5GRAM made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
- Q1 9:04UL Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call52.9%97% to makeGo for two52.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 13:30UL Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call64.9%97% to makeGo for two64.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 10:07UL Touchdown, up 20 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call81.9%97% to makeGo for two81.8%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 4:06UL Touchdown, up 27 before the tryClose callWent for two · failedKick97.4%97% to makeGo for twoTheir call97.3%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 8:46UL Touchdown, up 36 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.1%97% to makeGo for two99.1%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 4:35GRAM Touchdown, down 31 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call0.7%97% to makeGo for two0.7%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartGRAMDrive 1PUNT6 plays · 26 yds · 2:2727% → 28%
ULDrive 2TD8 plays · 82 yds · 3:2472% → 74%
Q1 12:28
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+50
72.4%
Ben Wooldridge pass complete to Harvey Broussard for 50 yds to the GRAM 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:59
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+4
72.7%
Ben Wooldridge pass complete to Jacob Bernard for 4 yds to the GRAM 28Similar
Q1 11:38
2ND & 6
OPP 28
+5
72.7%
Ben Wooldridge pass complete to Jacob Bernard for 5 yds to the GRAM 23Similar
Q1 9:59
2ND & 6
OPP 17
+11
72.6%
Ben Wooldridge pass complete to Robert Williams for 11 yds to the GRAM 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:04
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
74.3%
Dre'lyn Washington run for 6 yds for a TD (Kenneth Almendares KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GRAMDrive 3MISSED FG8 plays · 44 yds · 3:3927% → 27%
Q1 8:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
73.4%
Myles Crawley pass complete to Nicholas Howard for 13 yds to the GRAM 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:30
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+4
73.3%
Myles Crawley pass complete to Jalen Johnson for 4 yds to the GRAM 42Similar
Q1 6:44
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+8
72.9%
Myles Crawley pass complete to Javon Robinson for 8 yds to the UL 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 4TD12 plays · 69 yds · 6:5074% → 81%
Q1 4:57
2ND & 5
OWN 36
+4
74.7%
Ben Wooldridge pass complete to Harvey Broussard for 4 yds to the UL 40Similar
Q1 3:35
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+4
75.1%
Ben Wooldridge pass complete to Lance LeGendre for 4 yds to the UL 48Similar
Q1 2:58
2ND & 6
OWN 48
+1
75.3%
Ben Wooldridge pass complete to Caden Jensen for 1 yd to the UL 49Similar
Q1 2:11
3RD & 5
OWN 49
+17
74.9%
Ben Wooldridge pass complete to Jacob Bernard for 17 yds to the GRAM 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:14
3RD & 5
OPP 29
+10
75.6%
Ben Wooldridge pass complete to Terrance Carter for 10 yds to the GRAM 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:30
3RD & 4
OPP 13
+13
81.4%
Ben Wooldridge pass complete to Harvey Broussard for 13 yds for a TD (Kenneth Almendares KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GRAMDrive 5INT TD8 plays · 31 yds · 3:1720% → 12%
Q2 12:41
3RD & 8
OWN 18
+14
80.2%
Myles Crawley pass complete to Jacoby Bellazar for 14 yds to the GRAM 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:59
3RD & 1
OWN 41
+6
79.6%
Myles Crawley pass complete to Jacoby Bellazar for 6 yds to the GRAM 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:07
2ND & 10
OWN 47
-50
88.3%
Myles Crawley pass intercepted Caleb Kibodi return for 50 yds for a TD (Kenneth Almendares KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GRAMDrive 6PUNT7 plays · 20 yds · 2:4611% → 11%
Q2 9:15
3RD & 7
OWN 24
+12
89.3%
Myles Crawley pass complete to Nicholas Howard for 12 yds to the GRAM 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:33
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+4
89.1%
Myles Crawley pass complete to Nicholas Howard for 4 yds to the GRAM 40Similar
Q2 8:00
2ND & 6
OWN 40
+1
88.9%
Myles Crawley pass complete to Jacoby Bellazar for 1 yd to the GRAM 41Similar
Q2 7:15
4TH & 5
OWN 41
0
89.4%
Johnny Schifano punt for 39 yds , Jacob Bernard returns for no gain to the UL 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 7TD6 plays · 89 yds · 2:5991% → 97%
Q2 6:23
2ND & 10
OWN 11
+13
91.4%
Ben Wooldridge pass complete to Caden Jensen for 13 yds to the UL 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:43
2ND & 10
OWN 24
+11
91.8%
Ben Wooldridge pass complete to Robert Williams for 11 yds to the UL 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:58
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+9
92.2%
Ben Wooldridge pass complete to Harvey Broussard for 9 yds to the UL 44Similar
Q2 4:06
2ND & 1
OWN 44
+56
96.7%
Ben Wooldridge pass complete to Tavion Smith for 56 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GRAMDrive 8PUNT6 plays · -6 yds · 2:113% → 2%
Q2 3:17
2ND & 11
OWN 16
-2
97.9%
Myles Crawley pass complete to Tre Bradford for a loss of 2 yards to the GRAM 14Similar
Q2 2:00
4TH & 16
OWN 11
+5
98.2%
Johnny Schifano punt for 42 yds , Jacob Bernard returns for 5 yds to the GRAM 48Similar
Q2 1:48
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+5
97.6%
(01:48) WOOLDRIDGE, Ben pass deep to the right incomplete intended for BROUSSARD, Harvey thrown to the GSU32, clock 01:44. PENALTY GSU Offsides on HORTON, Jonathan enforced 5 yards from the GSU48 to the GSU43 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 9FG7 plays · 24 yds · 1:0598% → 98%
Q2 1:21
2ND & 1
OPP 39
+15
97.6%
Ben Wooldridge pass complete to Terrance Carter for 15 yds to the GRAM 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GRAMDrive 10END OF HALF1 play · 3 yds · 0:002% → 2%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 11INT3 plays · 15 yds · 1:1798% → 99%
GRAMDrive 12PUNT4 plays · 4 yds · 1:402% → 1%
Q3 13:25
2ND & 10
OWN 44
0
98.6%
Myles Crawley pass complete to Tre Bradford for no gain to the GRAM 44Similar
Q3 12:42
3RD & 10
OWN 44
+4
98.7%
Myles Crawley pass complete to Nicholas Howard for 4 yds to the GRAM 48Similar
Q3 11:51
4TH & 6
OWN 48
0
98.9%
Johnny Schifano punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Jacob Bernard at the UL 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 13TD7 plays · 79 yds · 3:0099% → 99%
Q3 11:46
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+19
98.8%
Ben Wooldridge pass complete to Lance LeGendre for 19 yds to the UL 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:58
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+15
99.0%
Ben Wooldridge pass complete to Robert Williams for 15 yds to the GRAM 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:13
2ND & 10
OPP 28
+15
99.1%
Ben Wooldridge pass complete to Caden Jensen for 15 yds to the GRAM 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:46
2ND & 7
OPP 10
+10
99.4%
Ben Wooldridge pass complete to Terrance Carter for 10 yds for a TD (Kenneth Almendares KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GRAMDrive 14TD9 plays · 75 yds · 4:111% → 2%
ULDrive 15DOWNS14 plays · 71 yds · 7:27100% → 100%
Q3 3:50
2ND & 5
OWN 26
+8
99.6%
Ben Wooldridge pass complete to Ty Stamey for 8 yds to the UL 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:15
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+5
99.6%
(03:15) WOOLDRIDGE, Ben pass deep up the middle intercepted by TALLEY, Quintin at the GSU50 intended for WILLIAMS, Robert. Talley return for 23 yards to the UL27, out of bounds, clock 03:13. PENALTY GSU Offsides on SCOTT, J'cobe enforced 5 yards from the UL34 to the UL39 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 2:08
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+2
99.7%
Ben Wooldridge pass complete to Ty Stamey for 2 yds to the GRAM 30Similar
Q3 1:28
2ND & 8
OPP 30
+5
99.7%
Ben Wooldridge pass complete to Robert Williams for 5 yds to the GRAM 25Similar
Q4 14:55
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+2
99.7%
Ben Wooldridge pass complete to Zylan Perry for 2 yds to the GRAM 20Similar
Q4 14:16
2ND & 8
OPP 20
+7
99.8%
Ben Wooldridge pass complete to Tavion Smith for 7 yds to the GRAM 13Similar
Q4 12:01
4TH & 2
OPP 3
-5
99.8%
Ben Wooldridge sacked by Blake Davis for a loss of 5 yards to the GRAM 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GRAMDrive 16PUNT5 plays · 7 yds · 2:180% → 0%
Q4 10:23
3RD & 5
OWN 13
+2
99.9%
Myles Crawley pass complete to Tre Bradford for 2 yds to the GRAM 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 17FG11 plays · 70 yds · 5:49100% → 100%
Q4 9:22
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+9
99.9%
Chandler Fields pass complete to Rahji Dennis for 9 yds to the UL 29Similar
Q4 8:42
2ND & 1
OWN 29
+16
99.9%
Chandler Fields pass complete to Rhett Guidry for 16 yds to the UL 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:48
3RD & 3
OPP 48
+5
99.9%
Grambling Penalty, Offsides (5 Yards) to the GRAM 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:45
2ND & 4
OPP 37
+22
99.9%
Chandler Fields pass complete to Dale Martin for 22 yds to the GRAM 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:05
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+8
99.9%
Chandler Fields pass complete to Landon Baptiste for 8 yds to the GRAM 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GRAMDrive 18FG5 plays · 32 yds · 1:190% → 0%
Q4 3:14
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+35
100.0%
Myles Crawley pass complete to Nicholas Howard for 35 yds to the UL 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:51
1ST & 10
OPP 30
-12
99.9%
Myles Crawley pass incomplete Grambling Penalty, Intentional Grounding (Myles Crawley) to the UL 42Similar
Q4 2:45
2ND & 22
OPP 42
+8
100.0%
Myles Crawley pass complete to Jalen Johnson for 8 yds to the UL 34Similar
Q4 2:08
3RD & 14
OPP 34
+1
100.0%
Myles Crawley pass complete to Dedrick Talbert for 1 yd to the UL 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 19END OF 4TH QUARTER3 plays · -3 yds · 1:37100% → 100%
Q4 1:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
100.0%
(01:55) [NHSG] Kneel down by UL at UL24 (team loss of 1), clock 01:51.Similar
Q4 1:20
2ND & 11
OWN 24
-1
100.0%
(01:20) [NHSG] Kneel down by UL at UL23 (team loss of 1), clock 01:16.Similar
Q4 0:18
3RD & 12
OWN 23
-1
100.0%
(00:18) [NHSG] Kneel down by UL at UL22 (team loss of 1), clock 00:12.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 10:07
Myles Crawley pass intercepted Caleb Kibodi return for 50 yds for a TD (Kenneth Almendares KICK)
+8.2
TD · Q2 13:30
Ben Wooldridge pass complete to Harvey Broussard for 13 yds for a TD (Kenneth Almendares KICK)
+5.3
TD · Q2 4:06
Ben Wooldridge pass complete to Tavion Smith for 56 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)
+4.5