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Win probability · UL
modelUL aheadAPP aheadconfidence bandkey playUL scoreAPP score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 10:44 · Nathan Torney punt for 30 yds
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore differentialBlowout margin
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 1:55: Ben Wooldridge pass complete to Harvey Broussard for 8 yds for a TD (Kenneth Almendares KICK) — UL win probability +7.1 pts (now 79%) (top driver: UL has the ball).
- TD · Q2 0:27: Joey Aguilar pass complete to Kanye Roberts for 15 yds for a TD (Jackson Moore KICK) — APP win probability +9.8 pts (now 33%) (top driver: Deficit intensified by the shrinking clock).
- TD · Q4 13:11: Landon Burton 0 Yd Run (Kenneth Almendares Kick) — UL win probability +24.4 pts (now 89%) (top driver: UL has the ball).
- TD · Q4 8:06: Joey Aguilar pass complete to Eli Wilson for 26 yds for a TD (Jackson Moore KICK) — APP win probability +25.2 pts (now 38%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
- TD · Q4 1:03: Ben Wooldridge run for 1 yd for a TD (Kenneth Almendares KICK) — UL win probability +7.2 pts (now 98%) (top driver: UL has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
UL made the numbers' call on 3 of 7APP made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
- Q1 13:05APP 4th & 5 at APP 47, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 24.5% before the snapGo for it24.5%−<0.141% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call24.5%average punt
- Q1 8:03UL 4th & 9 at APP 15, tiedAgrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 74.6% before the snapGo for it74.4%−0.129% to convertField goalTheir call74.5%83% to makePunt73.7%−0.8average punt
- Q1 5:19APP 4th & 9 at APP 39, down 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.0% before the snapGo for it24.9%−0.232% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call25.1%average punt
- Q1 2:23UL 4th & 26 at UL 37, up 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 73.0% before the snapGo for it72.3%−1.07% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call73.3%average punt
- Q2 7:22APP 4th & 6 at APP 39, down 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.3% before the snapGo for it27.1%−0.240% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call27.3%average punt
- Q2 5:26UL 4th & 2 at UL 30, up 3Close callPunted · 71.2% before the snapGo for it71.4%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call70.7%−0.8average punt
- Q3 13:08UL 4th & 3 at UL 26, up 3Close callPunted · 70.2% before the snapGo for it71.1%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call70.8%−0.4average punt
- Q3 10:59APP 4th & 3 at UL 45, down 3Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 30.8% before the snapGo for itTheir call31.6%52% to convertField goal28.6%−3.025% to makePunt30.4%−1.2average punt
- Q3 8:19APP 4th & 7 at UL 26, down 3Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 31.1% before the snapGo for it30.6%−0.636% to convertField goalTheir call31.1%64% to makePunt24.0%−7.1average punt
- Q3 3:10UL 4th & 8 at APP 35, tiedClose callKicked a field goal · 64.5% before the snapGo for it65.1%34% to convertField goalTheir call64.8%−0.345% to makePunt63.4%−1.7average punt
- Q4 10:44UL 4th & 1 at UL 37, up 10Numbers favored go for it by 1.5 ptsPunted · 87.3% before the snapGo for it87.8%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call86.3%−1.5average punt
- Q4 2:04UL 4th & 4 at APP 26, up 3Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 86.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call83.8%48% to convertField goal82.9%−0.964% to makePunt67.4%−16.4average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UL made the numbers' call on 4 of 4APP made the numbers' call on 2 of 3
- Q2 10:29APP Touchdown, up 3 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call32.4%97% to makeGo for two32.3%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 10:10UL Touchdown, up 2 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call72.8%97% to makeGo for two72.7%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 1:55UL Touchdown, up 9 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call80.6%97% to makeGo for two80.5%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 0:27APP Touchdown, down 4 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call28.5%97% to makeGo for two28.5%−0.145% to convert
- Q4 13:11UL Touchdown, up 9 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call87.8%97% to makeGo for two87.5%−0.245% to convert
- Q4 8:06APP Touchdown, down 4 before the tryClose callKicked · madeKickTheir call25.9%−0.297% to makeGo for two26.1%45% to convert
- Q4 1:03UL Touchdown, up 9 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call95.1%97% to makeGo for two94.9%−0.245% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartAPPDrive 1PUNT7 plays · 22 yds · 1:5027% → 28%
Q1 14:52
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+12
72.7%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Makai Jackson for 12 yds to the APP 32Similar
Q1 14:17
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+10
72.5%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Kaedin Robinson for 10 yds to the APP 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:46
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+5
72.4%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Dalton Stroman for 5 yds to the APP 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 2FG12 plays · 75 yds · 4:5072% → 72%
Q1 12:00
2ND & 10
OWN 32
+10
72.2%
Ben Wooldridge pass complete to Terrance Carter for 10 yds to the UL 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:18
3RD & 1
OPP 49
+5
72.2%
Ben Wooldridge pass complete to Robert Williams for 5 yds to the APP 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:41
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+28
72.3%
Ben Wooldridge pass complete to Lance LeGendre for 28 yds to the APP 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 3PUNT7 plays · 18 yds · 2:3728% → 28%
ULDrive 4PUNT7 plays · 18 yds · 2:5172% → 70%
Q1 3:33
3RD & 9
OPP 46
-15
71.9%
(03:33) WOOLDRIDGE, Ben pass short to the left complete for 6 yards to LEGENDRE, Lance caught at the APP45 and advanced to the APP40 (HARRINGTON, Brendan), clock 03:29. PENALTY UL Pass Interference on WILLIAMS, Robert enforced 15 yards to the UL39 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 3:04
3RD & 24
OWN 39
-2
71.0%
Ben Wooldridge pass complete to Robert Williams for a loss of 2 yards to the UL 37Similar
Q1 2:23
4TH & 26
OWN 37
0
70.2%
Nathan Torney punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Kaedin Robinson at the APP 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 5TD13 plays · 77 yds · 6:4729% → 37%
Q2 10:29
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
63.3%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to David Larkins for 1 yd for a TD (Jackson Moore KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 6TD1 play · 74 yds · 0:0070% → 70%
Q2 10:10
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+74
70.1%
Ben Wooldridge pass complete to Terrance Carter for 74 yds for a TD (Kenneth Almendares KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 7PUNT7 plays · 14 yds · 2:5230% → 30%
Q2 8:15
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+4
69.6%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Makai Jackson for 4 yds to the APP 39Similar
Q2 7:22
4TH & 6
OWN 39
+46
70.5%
Conner Maynard punt for 46 yds , Jacob Bernard returns for a loss of 1 yard to the UL 7Similar
Q2 7:18
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+15
70.1%
App State Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Andre Hamilton) to the UL 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 8PUNT4 plays · 23 yds · 1:5270% → 69%
Q2 5:26
4TH & 2
OWN 30
+6
69.1%
Nathan Torney punt for 50 yds , Kaedin Robinson returns for 6 yds to the APP 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 9INT1 play · 0 yds · 0:0030% → 30%
Q2 5:18
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-16
69.7%
Joey Aguilar pass intercepted Tyree Skipper return for 16 yds to the APP 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 10TD7 plays · 33 yds · 3:1173% → 79%
Q2 5:06
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+8
72.8%
Ben Wooldridge pass complete to Lance LeGendre for 8 yds to the APP 25Similar
Q2 4:22
2ND & 2
OPP 25
+14
72.8%
Ben Wooldridge pass complete to Terrance Carter for 14 yds to the APP 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:55
3RD & 7
OPP 8
+8
78.5%
Ben Wooldridge pass complete to Harvey Broussard for 8 yds for a TD (Kenneth Almendares KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 11TD14 plays · 70 yds · 1:2723% → 33%
Q2 1:30
3RD & 5
OWN 35
+9
77.8%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Makai Jackson for 9 yds to the APP 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:09
3RD & 10
OWN 44
+24
77.5%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Eli Wilson for 24 yds to the UL 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:45
2ND & 8
OPP 20
+15
75.4%
(00:45) AGUILAR, Joey pass deep to the left incomplete intended for STROMAN, Dalton thrown to the UL0, clock 00:41. PENALTY UL Pass Interference on MARTIN, Keyon enforced half the distance from the goal, 15 yards to the UL5 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 0:41
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
-10
75.4%
App State Penalty, Intentional Grounding (Joey Aguilar) to the UL 15Similar
Q2 0:27
2ND & GOAL
OPP 15
+15
67.4%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Kanye Roberts for 15 yds for a TD (Jackson Moore KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 12MISSED FG5 plays · 11 yds · 0:1673% → 74%
Q2 0:18
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+9
72.6%
Ben Wooldridge pass complete to Terrance Carter for 9 yds to the APP 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 13PUNT4 plays · 7 yds · 1:4569% → 69%
APPDrive 14FG12 plays · 44 yds · 4:4531% → 40%
Q3 9:42
2ND & 9
OPP 40
+11
66.4%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Makai Jackson for 11 yds to the UL 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 15FG11 plays · 41 yds · 5:0465% → 71%
APPDrive 16FUMBLE11 plays · 60 yds · 4:3330% → 35%
Q3 2:28
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+8
71.4%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Christan Horn for 8 yds to the APP 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:50
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+12
70.0%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Makai Jackson for 12 yds to the APP 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:40
2ND & 6
OPP 48
+15
65.8%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Kaedin Robinson for 15 yds to the UL 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 33
-10
64.3%
Joey Aguilar sacked by Chase Edwards for a loss of 10 yards to the UL 43Similar
Q4 14:03
3RD & 20
OPP 43
+22
70.8%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Kaedin Robinson for 22 yds to the UL 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:32
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+6
65.0%
Kanye Roberts run for 6 yds to the APP 15 Kanye Roberts fumbled, recovered by UL Justin Agu J. Agu return for 70 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 17TD1 play · 7 yds · 0:0089% → 89%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 18INT1 play · 0 yds · 0:0012% → 12%
Q4 13:06
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
88.1%
Joey Aguilar pass intercepted Tyree Skipper return for no gain to the UL 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 19PUNT5 plays · 9 yds · 2:1488% → 88%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 20TD7 plays · 67 yds · 2:3413% → 38%
Q4 10:40
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+14
87.5%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Kaedin Robinson for 14 yds to the APP 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:39
3RD & 9
OWN 48
+16
89.5%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Kaedin Robinson for 16 yds to the UL 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:12
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+7
88.1%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Kaedin Robinson for 7 yds to the UL 29Similar
Q4 8:06
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+26
61.6%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Eli Wilson for 26 yds for a TD (Jackson Moore KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 21INT5 plays · 26 yds · 2:0974% → 78%
APPDrive 22INT5 plays · 19 yds · 1:3729% → 31%
Q4 3:59
3RD & 4
OWN 35
-2
69.5%
Joey Aguilar pass intercepted Tyrone Lewis Jr. return for 2 yds to the APP 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 23TD11 plays · 32 yds · 2:4485% → 98%
Q4 2:04
4TH & 4
OPP 26
+16
88.3%
Ben Wooldridge pass complete to Lance LeGendre for 16 yds to the APP 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 24INT3 plays · 10 yds · 0:083% → 3%
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 8:06
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Eli Wilson for 26 yds for a TD (Jackson Moore KICK)
-25.2
TD · Q4 13:11
Landon Burton 0 Yd Run (Kenneth Almendares Kick)
+24.4
TD · Q2 0:27
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Kanye Roberts for 15 yds for a TD (Jackson Moore KICK)
-9.8