2024 · Week 2 · Sep 7, 2024 · Fifth Third Stadium
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Win probability · KENN
modelKENN aheadUL aheadconfidence bandkey playKENN scoreUL score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 13:06 · Nathan Torney punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Terrence Williams at the KENN 28
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 6:19: Preston Daniels run for 3 yds for a TD (Austin Welch KICK) — KENN win probability +2.4 pts (now 22%) (top driver: KENN has the ball).
- TD · Q2 6:02: Elijah Davis run for 1 yd for a TD (Kenneth Almendares KICK) — UL win probability +5.9 pts (now 78%) (top driver: UL has the ball).
- TD · Q2 1:54: Zylan Perry run for 19 yds for a TD (Kenneth Almendares KICK) — UL win probability +5.3 pts (now 84%) (top driver: UL has the ball).
- FG · Q2 0:00: Kenneth Almendares 26 yd FG GOOD — UL win probability +3.9 pts (now 89%) (top driver: UL has the ball).
- TD · Q3 9:02: Ben Wooldridge pass complete to Robert Williams for 3 yds for a TD (Kenneth Almendares KICK) — UL win probability +7.7 pts (now 96%) (top driver: UL has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
KENN made the numbers' call on 5 of 7UL made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
- Q1 2:02UL 4th & 1 at KENN 29, down 7Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 71.6% before the snapGo for itTheir call71.6%71% to convertField goal70.8%−0.958% to makePunt69.0%−2.7average punt
- Q2 13:55UL 4th & 7 at KENN 13, down 7Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 68.5% before the snapGo for it68.1%−0.334% to convertField goalTheir call68.4%85% to makePunt64.9%−3.5average punt
- Q2 10:51KENN 4th & 12 at UL 47, up 4Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.5% before the snapGo for it30.0%−0.723% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call30.7%average punt
- Q2 7:41UL 4th & 1 at UL 43, down 4Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 66.4% before the snapGo for itTheir call67.0%70% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt65.8%−1.2average punt
- Q2 3:13KENN 4th & 4 at KENN 36, down 3Close callPunted · 28.9% before the snapGo for it28.8%48% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call28.6%−0.2average punt
- Q3 13:06UL 4th & 3 at UL 32, up 13Agrees with the numbersPunted · 83.4% before the snapGo for it83.9%−0.352% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call84.2%average punt
- Q3 11:43KENN 4th & 5 at KENN 33, down 13Agrees with the numbersPunted · 17.8% before the snapGo for it17.8%−0.641% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call18.4%average punt
- Q3 6:54KENN 4th & 5 at KENN 41, down 20Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.1% before the snapGo for it8.2%−0.641% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call8.8%average punt
- Q4 13:28KENN 4th & 1 at KENN 34, down 27Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.7% before the snapGo for itTheir call1.8%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt1.6%−0.2average punt
- Q4 10:08KENN 4th & 2 at UL 20, down 27Close callWent for it · 0.4% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.4%−0.157% to convertField goal0.6%75% to makePunt-0.6%−1.2average punt
- Q4 7:30KENN 4th & 5 at UL 12, down 27Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 0.3% before the snapGo for it0.3%−0.438% to convertField goalTheir call0.7%86% to makePunt-0.2%−0.9average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
KENN made the numbers' call on 1 of 1UL made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
- Q1 6:19KENN Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call25.3%97% to makeGo for two25.3%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 6:02UL Touchdown, up 2 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call71.3%97% to makeGo for two71.2%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 1:54UL Touchdown, up 9 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call79.0%97% to makeGo for two79.0%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 9:02UL Touchdown, up 19 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call90.7%97% to makeGo for two90.7%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 0:49UL Touchdown, up 26 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.4%97% to makeGo for two99.4%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartKENNDrive 1TD16 plays · 74 yds · 8:2315% → 22%
Q1 13:36
3RD & 7
OWN 29
+7
15.2%
Davis Bryson pass complete to Blake Bohannon for 7 yds to the KENN 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:19
3RD & 13
OWN 43
+16
16.8%
Davis Bryson pass complete to Tykeem Wallace for 16 yds to the UL 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:19
3RD & 9
OPP 28
+19
18.7%
Davis Bryson pass complete to Destun Thomas for 19 yds to the UL 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 2FG14 plays · 74 yds · 7:0379% → 76%
Q1 5:31
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+6
21.3%
Ben Wooldridge pass complete to Harvey Broussard for 6 yds to the UL 47Similar
Q1 4:52
2ND & 4
OWN 47
+15
21.6%
Ben Wooldridge pass complete to Jacob Bernard for 15 yds to the KENN 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:17
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+5
21.9%
Ben Wooldridge pass complete to Tavion Smith for 5 yds to the KENN 33Similar
Q1 1:25
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+9
23.4%
Ben Wooldridge pass complete to Dalen Cambre for 9 yds to the KENN 17Similar
Q1 0:20
2ND & 6
OPP 22
+6
24.2%
Ben Wooldridge pass complete to Terrance Carter for 6 yds to the KENN 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENNDrive 3PUNT9 plays · 30 yds · 2:4525% → 26%
ULDrive 4TD10 plays · 80 yds · 4:3773% → 78%
Q2 8:24
3RD & 7
OWN 37
+6
28.9%
Ben Wooldridge pass complete to Tavion Smith for 6 yds to the UL 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENNDrive 5PUNT7 plays · 19 yds · 2:4225% → 25%
Q2 3:13
4TH & 4
OWN 36
0
24.7%
Jacob Ulrich punt for 49 yds, fair catch by Jacob Bernard at the UL 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 6TD4 plays · 85 yds · 1:1775% → 84%
Q2 2:35
2ND & 2
OWN 23
+52
24.4%
Ben Wooldridge pass complete to Jacob Bernard for 52 yds to the KENN 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENNDrive 7PUNT7 plays · 3 yds · 0:5018% → 17%
Q2 1:11
2ND & 3
OWN 32
-10
18.0%
(01:11) ASHLEY, Qua rush up the middle for a gain of 7 yards to the KSU39 (CLARK, Jalen), clock 01:18. PENALTY KSU Holding on PENNINGTON, J.T. enforced 10 yards from the KSU32 to the KSU22 [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 8FG3 plays · 1 yds · 0:0985% → 89%
ULDrive 9PUNT4 plays · 7 yds · 1:4585% → 85%
Q3 14:47
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-5
14.8%
(14:47) WOOLDRIDGE, Ben pass up the middle complete for 5 yards to BERNARD, Jacob caught at the UL24 and advanced to the UL30 (HOPSON, Baron;WALKER, Pooda), clock 14:35. PENALTY Before the snap, UL False Start on DAVIS, Elijah enforced 5 yards from the end of the play at the UL30 to the UL25. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 13:40
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+7
15.0%
Ben Wooldridge pass complete to Terrance Carter for 7 yds to the UL 32Similar
Q3 13:06
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
14.7%
Nathan Torney punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Terrence Williams at the KENN 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENNDrive 10PUNT4 plays · 5 yds · 1:2817% → 16%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 11TD5 plays · 71 yds · 2:3586% → 96%
Q3 10:05
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+20
12.5%
Ben Wooldridge pass complete to Lance LeGendre for 20 yds to the KENN 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:19
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+38
12.1%
Ben Wooldridge pass complete to Robert Williams for 38 yds to the KENN 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:02
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
4.4%
Ben Wooldridge pass complete to Robert Williams for 3 yds for a TD (Kenneth Almendares KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENNDrive 12PUNT5 plays · 5 yds · 2:038% → 5%
Q3 6:54
4TH & 5
OWN 41
0
7.3%
Jacob Ulrich punt for 38 yds , Jacob Bernard returns for no gain to the UL 41 Louisiana Penalty, Offensive Holding (Courtline Flowers) to the UL 21Similar
Q3 6:52
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+15
5.1%
Kennesaw State Penalty, Personal Foul (Preston Daniels) to the UL 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 13TD11 plays · 79 yds · 5:5396% → 99%
KENNDrive 14FG16 plays · 63 yds · 8:121% → 1%
Q4 12:53
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+18
0.5%
Davis Bryson pass complete to Tykeem Wallace for 18 yds to the UL 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:17
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+15
0.4%
Louisiana Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (Mason Narcisse) to the UL 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:41
3RD & 15
OPP 33
+13
0.2%
Davis Bryson pass complete to Qua Ashley for 13 yds to the UL 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 15END OF GAME12 plays · 62 yds · 7:0299% → 100%
Q4 3:34
3RD & 3
OPP 35
+6
0.7%
Chandler Fields pass complete to Dale Martin for 6 yds to the KENN 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:56
2ND & 9
OPP 14
+2
0.4%
Chandler Fields pass complete to Dale Martin for 2 yds to the KENN 12Similar
Q4 0:11
3RD & 7
OPP 12
-1
0.4%
(00:11) Kneel down by WOOLDRIDGE, Ben at KSU13 (team loss of 1), clock 00:05.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 9:02
Ben Wooldridge pass complete to Robert Williams for 3 yds for a TD (Kenneth Almendares KICK)
-7.7
TD · Q2 6:02
Elijah Davis run for 1 yd for a TD (Kenneth Almendares KICK)
-5.9
TD · Q2 1:54
Zylan Perry run for 19 yds for a TD (Kenneth Almendares KICK)
-5.3