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UL

Louisiana 3 at TCU 34

TCU
2024 · Isleta New Mexico Bowl · Dec 28, 2024 · University Stadium (NM)
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Win probability · TCU
modelTCU aheadUL aheadconfidence bandkey playTCU scoreUL score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGFGTDTDFGEnd of GameFG—TCU 99.8%Kenneth Almendares 24 yd FG GOODAWAY 3 - HOME 34 · Q4 12:05
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 12:05 · Kenneth Almendares 24 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+36.5+18.30−18.3−36.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 129Home team on offense+34.3Score differential+29.8Pregame prior+5.7Blowout margin+15.4Garbage-time factor+10.5Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+5.4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 2:23: Josh Hoover pass complete to Eric McAlister for 1 yd for a TD (Kyle Lemmermann KICK) — TCU win probability +3.3 pts (now 81%) (top driver: TCU has the ball).
  2. FG · Q2 11:06: Kyle Lemmermann 45 yd FG GOOD — TCU win probability +3.2 pts (now 87%) (top driver: TCU has the ball).
  3. FG · Q2 5:34: Kyle Lemmermann 22 yd FG GOOD — TCU win probability +3.6 pts (now 92%) (top driver: TCU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 0:57: Josh Hoover pass complete to JP Richardson for 20 yds for a TD (Kyle Lemmermann KICK) — TCU win probability +3.4 pts (now 97%) (top driver: TCU has the ball).
  5. KEY PLAY · Q3 12:21: Bill Davis run for a loss of 2 yards to the UL 40 — TCU win probability +1.8 pts (now 99%) (top driver: UL has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TCU made the numbers' call on 6 of 8UL made the numbers' call on 6 of 8
  1. Q1 7:27UL 4th & 2 at TCU 37, down 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 24.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.8%
    57% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    24.6%−0.3
    40% to make
    Punt
    24.5%−0.3
    average punt
  2. Q1 2:23TCU 4th & 1 at UL 1, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 75.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    75.6%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    74.8%−0.8
    94% to make
    Punt
    72.6%−3.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 0:48UL 4th & 15 at UL 20, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 20.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.5%−1.1
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    20.5%
    average punt
  4. Q2 11:06TCU 4th & 9 at UL 27, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 82.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.4%−0.5
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    81.9%
    62% to make
    Punt
    78.1%−3.8
    average punt
  5. Q2 5:34TCU 4th & 4 at UL 4, up 17
    Close callKicked a field goal · 87.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.6%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    86.0%−0.5
    93% to make
    Punt
    80.1%−6.5
    average punt
  6. Q2 3:36UL 4th & 4 at UL 31, down 20
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.9%−0.5
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.4%
    average punt
  7. Q2 2:30TCU 4th & 7 at TCU 33, up 20
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 92.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.2%−0.3
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    92.5%
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:57TCU 4th & 2 at UL 20, up 20
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 94.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    94.0%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    93.9%−0.1
    75% to make
    Punt
    91.2%−2.9
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:11UL 4th & 9 at UL 17, down 27
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.9%−1.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.0%
    average punt
  10. Q3 11:02UL 4th & 27 at UL 30, down 27
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.2%−1.2
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.3%
    average punt
  11. Q3 6:07UL 4th & 4 at UL 42, down 34
    Close callWent for it · 0.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.5%−<0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.5%
    average punt
  12. Q3 4:44TCU 4th & 18 at midfield, up 34
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.5%−0.1
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.6%
    average punt
  13. Q3 2:36UL 4th & 6 at UL 29, down 34
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.3%−<0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.4%
    average punt
  14. Q4 12:05UL 4th & 7 at TCU 7, down 34
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−<0.1
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    0.2%
    91% to make
    Punt
    -0.2%−0.4
    average punt
  15. Q4 9:58TCU 4th & 6 at TCU 37, up 31
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.8%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.8%
    average punt
  16. Q4 2:39TCU 4th & 8 at UL 33, up 31
    Close callWent for it · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.9%−<0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    99.9%
    49% to make
    Punt
    99.8%−0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TCU made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 10:11TCU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    75.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    75.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 2:23TCU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    79.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    79.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 0:57TCU Touchdown, up 26 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 9:26TCU Touchdown, up 33 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
TCUDrive 1TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 4:4077% → 78%
Q1 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
77.0%
Trent Battle run for 6 yds to the TCU 31Similar
Q1 14:36
2ND & 4
OWN 31
0
77.0%
Josh Hoover pass incomplete to Trent BattleSimilar
Q1 14:23
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+8
76.9%
Josh Hoover pass complete to Drake Dabney for 8 yds to the TCU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:01
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+21
76.9%
Josh Hoover pass complete to Drake Dabney for 21 yds to the UL 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:25
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+9
76.9%
Jordyn Bailey run for 9 yds to the UL 31Similar
Q1 13:01
2ND & 1
OPP 31
+5
76.9%
Trent Battle run for 5 yds to the UL 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:22
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+12
76.8%
Josh Hoover pass complete to Eric McAlister for 12 yds to the UL 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:15
1ST & 10
OPP 14
-10
76.8%
TCU Penalty, Offensive Holding (Coltin Deery) to the UL 24Similar
Q1 11:49
1ST & 20
OPP 24
+7
76.7%
Josh Hoover pass complete to Eric McAlister for 7 yds to the UL 17Similar
Q1 11:11
2ND & 13
OPP 17
+7
76.6%
Josh Hoover pass complete to JP Richardson for 7 yds to the UL 10Similar
Q1 10:35
3RD & 6
OPP 10
+7
76.4%
Josh Hoover pass complete to Eric McAlister for 7 yds to the UL 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:11
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
77.7%
Josh Hoover pass complete to DJ Rogers for 3 yds for a TD (Kyle Lemmermann KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 2MISSED FG
8 plays · 38 yds · 2:4123% → 23%
Q1 10:08
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
77.1%
Ben Wooldridge pass incomplete to Lance LeGendreSimilar
Q1 10:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+5
77.2%
Zylan Perry run for 5 yds to the UL 30Similar
Q1 9:11
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+25
77.3%
Ben Wooldridge pass complete to Jacob Bernard for 25 yds to the TCU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:50
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+6
76.8%
Zylan Perry run for 6 yds to the TCU 39Similar
Q1 8:10
2ND & 4
OPP 39
+2
76.7%
Zylan Perry run for 2 yds to the TCU 37Similar
Q1 7:33
3RD & 2
OPP 37
0
76.7%
Ben Wooldridge pass incomplete to Jaydon JohnsonSimilar
Q1 7:27
4TH & 2
OPP 37
+54
77.0%
Kenneth Almendares 54 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 3TD
10 plays · 63 yds · 4:4978% → 81%
Q1 7:12
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+2
77.6%
Trent Battle run for 2 yds to the TCU 39Similar
Q1 6:50
2ND & 8
OWN 39
+12
77.8%
Josh Hoover pass complete to Eric McAlister for 12 yds to the UL 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:19
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+11
78.0%
Josh Hoover pass complete to JP Richardson for 11 yds to the UL 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:55
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+25
78.1%
Josh Hoover pass complete to Eric McAlister for 25 yds to the UL 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:28
1ST & 10
OPP 13
-1
78.2%
Trent Battle run for a loss of 1 yard to the UL 14Similar
Q1 4:47
2ND & 11
OPP 14
+11
78.2%
Nate Palmer run for 11 yds to the UL 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
78.3%
Nate Palmer run for 2 yds to the UL 1Similar
Q1 3:46
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
78.3%
Nate Palmer run for no gain to the UL 1Similar
Q1 3:01
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
78.1%
Trent Battle run for no gain to the UL 1Similar
Q1 2:23
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
81.4%
Josh Hoover pass complete to Eric McAlister for 1 yd for a TD (Kyle Lemmermann KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · -5 yds · 1:2920% → 19%
Q1 2:17
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
80.4%
Ben Wooldridge pass incomplete to Robert WilliamsSimilar
Q1 1:58
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+2
80.5%
Bill Davis run for 2 yds to the UL 27Similar
Q1 1:20
3RD & 8
OWN 27
-7
80.8%
Ben Wooldridge sacked by Devean Deal for a loss of 7 yards to the UL 20Similar
Q1 0:48
4TH & 15
OWN 20
0
81.1%
Nathan Torney punt for 37 yds, fair catch by JP Richardson at the TCU 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 5FG
10 plays · 30 yds · 4:2483% → 87%
Q1 0:30
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+2
82.6%
Jeremy Payne run for 2 yds to the TCU 45Similar
Q1 0:11
2ND & 8
OWN 45
+4
82.7%
Jeremy Payne run for 4 yds to the TCU 49Similar
Q2 14:50
3RD & 4
OWN 49
+12
82.5%
Josh Hoover pass complete to Eric McAlister for 12 yds to the UL 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:06
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+7
83.1%
Josh Hoover run for 7 yds to the UL 32Similar
Q2 13:29
2ND & 3
OPP 32
+1
83.3%
Jeremy Payne run for 1 yd to the UL 31Similar
Q2 12:40
3RD & 2
OPP 31
+3
83.3%
Jeremy Payne run for 3 yds to the UL 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:29
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
83.7%
Josh Hoover pass incomplete to JP RichardsonSimilar
Q2 12:00
2ND & 10
OPP 28
-7
83.8%
Josh Hoover sacked by Antoine Baylis for a loss of 7 yards to the UL 35Similar
Q2 11:27
3RD & 17
OPP 35
+8
83.4%
Josh Hoover pass complete to Jeremy Payne for 8 yds to the UL 27Similar
Q2 11:06
4TH & 9
OPP 27
+45
86.5%
Kyle Lemmermann 45 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 6PUNT
8 plays · 3 yds · 2:3015% → 13%
Q2 10:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
85.4%
Zylan Perry run for 11 yds to the UL 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:34
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+15
85.2%
Zylan Perry run for 15 yds to the TCU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:00
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-5
84.9%
Louisiana Penalty, False Start (Mackey Maillho) to the UL 46Similar
Q2 9:36
1ST & 15
OWN 46
0
85.7%
Ben Wooldridge pass incomplete to Tavion SmithSimilar
Q2 9:25
2ND & 15
OWN 46
-18
85.9%
Ben Wooldridge pass complete to Bill Davis for a loss of 3 yards to the UL 43 Louisiana Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (Tavion Smith) to the UL 28Similar
Q2 8:55
3RD & 33
OWN 28
0
86.3%
Bill Davis run for no gain to the UL 28Similar
Q2 8:25
4TH & 33
OWN 28
0
86.6%
Nathan Torney punt for 36 yds, fair catch by JP Richardson at the TCU 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 7FG
9 plays · 60 yds · 2:3887% → 92%
Q2 8:12
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-1
87.3%
Nate Palmer run for a loss of 1 yard to the TCU 35Similar
Q2 7:49
2ND & 11
OWN 35
+44
87.2%
Josh Hoover pass complete to Drake Dabney for 44 yds to the UL 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:19
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+3
87.9%
Nate Palmer run for 3 yds to the UL 18Similar
Q2 6:56
2ND & 7
OPP 18
0
88.1%
Josh Hoover pass incomplete to Drake DabneySimilar
Q2 6:42
3RD & 7
OPP 18
+11
87.9%
Josh Hoover pass complete to Eric McAlister for 11 yds to the UL 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:08
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
0
88.5%
Josh Hoover pass incomplete to Eric McAlisterSimilar
Q2 6:01
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+3
88.5%
Trent Battle run for 3 yds to the UL 4 Trent Battle fumbled, recovered by TCUSimilar
Q2 5:37
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
0
88.4%
Josh Hoover pass incomplete to JP RichardsonSimilar
Q2 5:34
4TH & GOAL
OPP 4
+22
92.0%
Kyle Lemmermann 22 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 1:398% → 8%
Q2 5:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
91.9%
D'Wayne' Winfield run for 5 yds to the UL 30Similar
Q2 4:45
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+2
91.8%
Bill Davis run for 2 yds to the UL 32Similar
Q2 4:03
3RD & 3
OWN 32
-1
92.1%
Ben Wooldridge pass complete to Robert Williams for a loss of 1 yard to the UL 31Similar
Q2 3:36
4TH & 4
OWN 31
0
92.5%
Nathan Torney punt for 39 yds, fair catch by JP Richardson at the TCU 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 9PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 1:0193% → 93%
Q2 3:31
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
93.3%
Josh Hoover pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:15
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+3
93.3%
Josh Hoover run for 3 yds to the TCU 33Similar
Q2 2:42
3RD & 7
OWN 33
0
93.3%
Josh Hoover pass incomplete to Jordyn BaileySimilar
Q2 2:30
4TH & 7
OWN 33
0
92.9%
Ethan Craw punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Bill Davis at the UL 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 10INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:007% → 7%
Q2 2:24
1ST & 10
OWN 24
-4
92.9%
Ben Wooldridge pass intercepted Cam Smith return for 4 yds to the UL 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 11TD
5 plays · 28 yds · 1:1594% → 97%
Q2 2:12
1ST & 10
OPP 28
-1
94.2%
Trent Battle run for a loss of 1 yard to the UL 29Similar
Q2 1:55
2ND & 11
OPP 29
0
94.5%
Josh Hoover pass incomplete to Jordyn BaileySimilar
Q2 1:41
3RD & 11
OPP 29
+9
94.4%
Josh Hoover pass complete to JP Richardson for 9 yds to the UL 20Similar
Q2 0:57
4TH & 2
OPP 20
+20
97.4%
Josh Hoover pass complete to JP Richardson for 20 yds for a TD (Kyle Lemmermann KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 12PUNT
6 plays · 1 yds · 0:282% → 2%
Q2 0:39
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+6
97.8%
Ben Wooldridge run for 6 yds to the UL 22Similar
Q2 0:24
2ND & 4
OWN 22
0
97.8%
Ben Wooldridge pass incomplete to Lance LeGendreSimilar
Q2 0:21
3RD & 4
OWN 22
0
97.8%
Ben Wooldridge pass incomplete to Lance LeGendreSimilar
Q2 0:21
4TH & 4
OWN 22
-5
97.9%
Louisiana Penalty, False Start (Carter Milliron) to the UL 17Similar
Q2 0:11
4TH & 9
OWN 17
+12
97.8%
Nathan Torney punt for 38 yds , JP Richardson returns for 12 yds to the UL 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 13END OF HALF
1 play · -7 yds · 0:0098% → 98%
Q2 0:01
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-7
98.2%
Josh Hoover sacked by Amir McDaniel for a loss of 7 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 14PUNT
10 plays · 9 yds · 3:513% → 1%
Q3 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+15
97.4%
TCU Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (Jaise Oliver) to the UL 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:30
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
95.8%
Zylan Perry run for 2 yds to the UL 38Similar
Q3 14:12
2ND & 8
OWN 38
+1
96.4%
Zylan Perry run for 1 yd to the UL 39Similar
Q3 13:20
3RD & 7
OWN 39
+8
96.4%
Ben Wooldridge pass complete to Dalen Cambre for 8 yds to the UL 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:52
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-5
97.1%
Louisiana Penalty, Illegal Formation (-5 Yards) to the UL 42Similar
Q3 12:21
1ST & 15
OWN 42
-2
98.9%
Bill Davis run for a loss of 2 yards to the UL 40Similar
Q3 11:44
2ND & 17
OWN 40
0
99.0%
Ben Wooldridge pass incomplete to KeDarius WadeSimilar
Q3 11:15
3RD & 17
OWN 40
-10
99.0%
Ben Wooldridge sacked by Kaleb Elarms-Orr for a loss of 10 yards to the UL 30Similar
Q3 11:02
4TH & 27
OWN 30
+24
99.1%
Nathan Torney punt for 39 yds, fair catch by JP Richardson at the TCU 31 Louisiana Penalty, Kick Catching Interference (Landon Baptiste) to the TCU 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 15TD
4 plays · 54 yds · 1:2499% → 99%
Q3 10:50
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+6
99.0%
Josh Hoover pass complete to JP Richardson for 6 yds to the UL 48Similar
Q3 10:22
2ND & 4
OPP 48
+24
99.1%
Trent Battle run for 24 yds to the UL 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:00
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+4
99.1%
Trent Battle run for 4 yds to the UL 20Similar
Q3 9:26
2ND & 6
OPP 20
+20
99.3%
Josh Hoover pass complete to Blake Nowell for 20 yds for a TD (Kyle Lemmermann KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 16DOWNS
7 plays · 17 yds · 3:031% → 1%
Q3 9:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
99.3%
D'Wayne' Winfield pass complete to Zylan Perry for 6 yds to the UL 31Similar
Q3 8:44
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+5
99.2%
D'Wayne' Winfield run for 5 yds to the UL 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:10
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+1
99.4%
Zylan Perry run for 1 yd to the UL 37Similar
Q3 7:20
2ND & 9
OWN 37
-7
99.5%
Ben Wooldridge sacked by Austin Jordan for a loss of 7 yards to the UL 30Similar
Q3 6:45
3RD & 16
OWN 30
+12
99.5%
Ben Wooldridge pass complete to Lance LeGendre for 12 yds to the UL 42Similar
Q3 6:07
4TH & 4
OWN 42
0
99.5%
Ben Wooldridge pass incomplete to Jaydon JohnsonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 17PUNT
5 plays · -8 yds · 1:19100% → 100%
Q3 6:03
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
99.5%
Josh Hoover pass incomplete to Drake DabneySimilar
Q3 5:53
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+2
99.5%
Nate Palmer run for 2 yds to the UL 40Similar
Q3 5:17
3RD & 8
OPP 40
-10
99.6%
TCU Penalty, Offensive Holding (Ben Taylor-Whitfield) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 4:54
3RD & 18
50
0
99.6%
Josh Hoover pass incomplete to Drake DabneySimilar
Q3 4:44
4TH & 18
50
+38
99.5%
Ethan Craw punt for 43 yds, downed at the UL 7 TCU Penalty, Illegal Formation (-5 Yards) to the UL 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 18PUNT
5 plays · 17 yds · 2:000% → 0%
Q3 4:36
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+13
99.6%
Bill Davis run for 13 yds to the UL 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
99.7%
Bill Davis run for 1 yd to the UL 26Similar
Q3 3:26
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+3
99.7%
Bill Davis run for 3 yds to the UL 29Similar
Q3 2:44
3RD & 6
OWN 29
0
99.7%
Ben Wooldridge pass incomplete to Robert WilliamsSimilar
Q3 2:36
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
99.7%
Nathan Torney punt for 37 yds, downed at the TCU 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 19INT
4 plays · 16 yds · 1:35100% → 100%
Q3 2:26
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+8
99.7%
Josh Hoover pass complete to DJ Rogers for 8 yds to the TCU 42Similar
Q3 1:59
2ND & 2
OWN 42
+8
99.7%
Jeremy Payne run for 8 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:26
1ST & 10
50
0
99.7%
Jeremy Payne run for no gain to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 0:51
2ND & 10
50
-23
99.7%
Josh Hoover pass intercepted Jordan Lawson return for 23 yds to the TCU 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 20FG
9 plays · 24 yds · 3:410% → 0%
Q3 0:46
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
99.7%
Ben Wooldridge pass incomplete to Lance LeGendreSimilar
Q3 0:38
2ND & 10
OPP 31
+12
99.8%
Ben Wooldridge pass complete to Caden Jensen for 12 yds to the TCU 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:50
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+2
99.8%
Zylan Perry run for 2 yds to the TCU 17Similar
Q4 14:16
2ND & 8
OPP 17
0
99.8%
Ben Wooldridge pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:05
3RD & 8
OPP 17
+8
99.8%
Ben Wooldridge pass complete to Dalen Cambre for 8 yds to the TCU 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:24
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
0
99.8%
Bill Davis run for no gain to the TCU 9Similar
Q4 12:44
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+2
99.8%
Bill Davis run for 2 yds to the TCU 7Similar
Q4 12:08
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
0
99.8%
Ben Wooldridge pass incomplete to Lance LeGendreSimilar
Q4 12:05
4TH & GOAL
OPP 7
+24
99.8%
Kenneth Almendares 24 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 21PUNT
6 plays · 14 yds · 1:44100% → 100%
Q4 11:42
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+10
99.8%
Nate Palmer run for 10 yds to the TCU 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:17
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+1
99.8%
Nate Palmer run for 1 yd to the TCU 34Similar
Q4 10:39
2ND & 9
OWN 34
+3
99.8%
Nate Palmer run for 3 yds to the TCU 37Similar
Q4 10:05
3RD & 6
OWN 37
0
99.9%
Josh Hoover pass incomplete to Drake DabneySimilar
Q4 9:58
4TH & 6
OWN 37
0
99.9%
Ethan Craw punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Jacob Bernard at the UL 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 22INT
7 plays · 23 yds · 3:150% → 0%
Q4 9:36
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+2
99.9%
Zylan Perry run for 2 yds to the UL 20Similar
Q4 9:02
2ND & 8
OWN 20
+11
99.9%
Daniel Beale pass complete to Robert Williams for 11 yds to the UL 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:06
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+2
99.9%
Zylan Perry run for 2 yds to the UL 33Similar
Q4 7:34
2ND & 8
OWN 33
+9
99.9%
Daniel Beale pass complete to Chaz Ward for 9 yds to the UL 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:02
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-1
99.9%
D'Wayne' Winfield run for a loss of 1 yard to the UL 41Similar
Q4 6:29
2ND & 11
OWN 41
0
99.9%
D'Wayne' Winfield pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:21
3RD & 11
OWN 41
+15
99.9%
Daniel Beale pass intercepted Jordan Lester return for no gain to the UL 41 Louisiana Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (-15 Yards) to the UL 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 23DOWNS
8 plays · 14 yds · 3:36100% → 100%
Q4 6:15
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+1
99.9%
Jeremy Payne run for 1 yd to the UL 46Similar
Q4 5:34
2ND & 9
OPP 46
+11
99.9%
Jeremy Payne run for 11 yds to the UL 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:52
1ST & 10
OPP 35
-5
99.9%
TCU Penalty, False Start (Ryan Hughes) to the UL 40Similar
Q4 4:45
1ST & 15
OPP 40
+3
99.9%
Jeremy Payne run for 3 yds to the UL 37Similar
Q4 3:50
2ND & 12
OPP 37
+5
99.9%
Ken Seals pass complete to Braylon James for 5 yds to the UL 32Similar
Q4 3:08
3RD & 7
OPP 32
-1
99.9%
Nate Palmer run for a loss of 1 yard to the UL 33Similar
Q4 2:39
4TH & 8
OPP 33
0
99.9%
Ken Seals pass incomplete to Jeremy PayneSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 24END OF GAME
7 plays · 61 yds · 2:030% → 0%
Q4 2:08
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+36
99.9%
Tylon Citizen run for 36 yds to the TCU 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:56
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+4
99.9%
Tylon Citizen run for 4 yds to the TCU 27Similar
Q4 1:48
2ND & 6
OPP 27
+5
99.9%
D'Wayne' Winfield run for 5 yds to the TCU 22Similar
Q4 1:14
3RD & 1
OPP 22
+5
99.9%
D'Wayne' Winfield run for 5 yds to the TCU 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:35
1ST & 10
OPP 17
-3
99.9%
Tylon Citizen run for a loss of 3 yards to the TCU 20Similar
Q4 0:14
2ND & 13
OPP 20
+8
99.9%
Daniel Beale pass complete to Dalen Cambre for 8 yds to the TCU 12Similar
Q4 0:05
3RD & 5
OPP 12
+6
99.9%
Tylon Citizen run for 6 yds to the TCU 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
FG · Q2 5:34
Kyle Lemmermann 22 yd FG GOOD
+3.6
TD · Q2 0:57
Josh Hoover pass complete to JP Richardson for 20 yds for a TD (Kyle Lemmermann KICK)
+3.4
TD · Q1 2:23
Josh Hoover pass complete to Eric McAlister for 1 yd for a TD (Kyle Lemmermann KICK)
+3.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com