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MRSH

Marshall 31 at Louisiana 3

UL
2024 · Week 15 · Dec 7, 2024 · Cajun Field
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Win probability · UL
modelUL aheadMRSH aheadconfidence bandkey playUL scoreMRSH score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDFGTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 5:50 · Dre'lyn Washington run for 4 yds to the UL 37 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+57.5+28.80−28.8−57.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 113Home team on offense−30.8Score differential−19.1Pregame prior+5.6Garbage-time factor−9.5Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−2.9Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−2.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 4:04: Braylon Braxton pass complete to Tychaun Chapman for 37 yds for a TD (Rece Verhoff KICK) — MRSH win probability +3.4 pts (now 38%) (top driver: MRSH has the ball).
  2. FG · Q2 7:54: Rece Verhoff 32 yd FG GOOD — MRSH win probability +5.6 pts (now 48%) (top driver: MRSH has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 2:47: Ethan Payne run for 15 yds for a TD (Rece Verhoff KICK) — MRSH win probability +8.9 pts (now 63%) (top driver: MRSH has the ball).
  4. KEY PLAY · Q2 0:11: TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the UL 5 — UL win probability +4.5 pts (now 36%) (top driver: UL has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 7:43: Braylon Braxton pass complete to Bralon Brown for 20 yds for a TD (Rece Verhoff KICK) — MRSH win probability +12.9 pts (now 91%) (top driver: MRSH has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UL made the numbers' call on 6 of 12MRSH made the numbers' call on 5 of 7
  1. Q1 13:01UL 4th & 2 at UL 37, tied
    Close callPunted · 64.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.0%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    63.9%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:47MRSH 4th & 5 at MRSH 45, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 36.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.5%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    36.5%
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:42UL 4th & 5 at MRSH 23, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 63.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.8%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    63.8%
    70% to make
    Punt
    62.7%−1.0
    average punt
  4. Q1 2:18UL 4th & 2 at UL 33, down 4
    Close callPunted · 60.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.7%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    60.7%−<0.1
    average punt
  5. Q1 0:00MRSH 4th & 5 at MRSH 40, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 39.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.5%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    39.5%
    average punt
  6. Q2 12:08UL 4th & 2 at MRSH 33, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 60.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    60.4%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    59.3%−1.2
    49% to make
    Punt
    58.7%−1.7
    average punt
  7. Q2 7:54MRSH 4th & 4 at UL 14, up 4
    Close callKicked a field goal · 44.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.8%
    46% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    43.5%−0.2
    84% to make
    Punt
    38.4%−5.3
    average punt
  8. Q2 5:51UL 4th & 3 at UL 15, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 49.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.7%−0.4
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    49.2%
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:17MRSH 4th & 15 at MRSH 46, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 66.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.7%−0.8
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    66.5%
    average punt
  10. Q3 13:31MRSH 4th & 5 at MRSH 29, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 67.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.6%−0.5
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    68.1%
    average punt
  11. Q3 12:07UL 4th & 3 at UL 36, down 14
    Close callPunted · 31.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.8%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.5%−0.3
    average punt
  12. Q3 10:30MRSH 4th & 1 at UL 47, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 72.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    72.4%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    69.5%−2.9
    average punt
  13. Q3 5:50UL 4th & 2 at UL 33, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 9.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    10.7%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    10.7%−<0.1
    average punt
  14. Q3 4:14UL 4th & 9 at UL 38, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.0%−1.0
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.9%
    average punt
  15. Q3 0:26MRSH 4th & 6 at UL 41, up 21
    Close callPunted · 95.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.8%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    95.3%−0.5
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    95.5%−0.3
    average punt
  16. Q4 14:11UL 4th & 5 at UL 30, down 21
    Close callWent for it · 4.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    4.6%−0.2
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    4.9%
    average punt
  17. Q4 11:34UL 4th & 1 at MRSH 42, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 4.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    4.0%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    2.7%−1.3
    30% to make
    Punt
    2.8%−1.3
    average punt
  18. Q4 7:04UL 4th & 10 at MRSH 10, down 21
    Close callWent for it · 2.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.4%−0.4
    24% to convert
    Field goal
    2.7%
    88% to make
    Punt
    0.6%−2.1
    average punt
  19. Q4 1:21UL 4th & 4 at midfield, down 28
    Close callWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.1%−<0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.1%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MRSH made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 4:04MRSH Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    38.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    38.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 2:47MRSH Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    60.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    60.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 7:43MRSH Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    86.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    86.2%−0.2
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 2:03MRSH Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ULDrive 1PUNT
6 plays · 8 yds · 1:5266% → 66%
Q1 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 29
-15
66.2%
Perry, Zylan rush for no gain to the ULLAFAYTTE29, PENALTY ULLAFAYTTE personal foul 15 yards to the ULLAFAYTTE14, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 14:53
1ST & 25
OWN 14
0
66.2%
Chandler Fields pass incomplete to Jacob BernardSimilar
Q1 14:15
2ND & 25
OWN 14
+9
66.1%
Chandler Fields pass complete to Harvey Broussard for 9 yds to the UL 23Similar
Q1 13:44
3RD & 16
OWN 23
+14
66.0%
Chandler Fields pass complete to Lance LeGendre for 14 yds to the UL 37Similar
Q1 13:01
4TH & 2
OWN 37
0
66.0%
Nathan Torney punt for 54 yds, downed at the MRSH 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 2PUNT
10 plays · 36 yds · 4:0534% → 35%
Q1 12:52
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+6
66.1%
Jordan Houston run for 6 yds to the MRSH 15Similar
Q1 12:30
2ND & 4
OWN 15
+14
66.0%
Jordan Houston run for 14 yds to the MRSH 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:00
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+6
65.9%
Braylon Braxton run for 6 yds to the MRSH 35Similar
Q1 11:34
2ND & 4
OWN 35
0
65.7%
Braylon Braxton run for no gain to the MRSH 35Similar
Q1 10:48
3RD & 4
OWN 35
+5
65.7%
Braylon Braxton pass complete to Christian Fitzpatrick for 5 yds to the MRSH 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:30
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-8
65.4%
Braylon Braxton pass complete to Tychaun Chapman for 2 yds to the MRSH 42 Marshall Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the MRSH 32Similar
Q1 10:18
1ST & 18
OWN 32
0
65.7%
Braylon Braxton pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:11
2ND & 18
OWN 32
+5
65.7%
Braylon Braxton run for 5 yds to the MRSH 37Similar
Q1 9:14
3RD & 13
OWN 37
+8
65.8%
Braylon Braxton pass complete to Tychaun Chapman for 8 yds to the MRSH 45Similar
Q1 8:47
4TH & 5
OWN 45
+12
65.5%
Alec Clark punt for 42 yds , Jacob Bernard returns for 12 yds to the UL 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 3FG
5 plays · 52 yds · 1:5266% → 67%
Q1 8:34
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+47
65.5%
Chandler Fields pass complete to Lance LeGendre for 47 yds to the MRSH 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:13
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+2
66.4%
Dre'lyn Washington run for 2 yds to the MRSH 26Similar
Q1 7:30
2ND & 8
OPP 26
+3
66.3%
Dre'lyn Washington run for 3 yds to the MRSH 23Similar
Q1 6:47
3RD & 5
OPP 23
0
66.1%
Chandler Fields pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:42
4TH & 5
OPP 23
+40
66.5%
Kenneth Almendares 40 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 4TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 2:3834% → 38%
Q1 6:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
66.4%
Louisiana Penalty, Roughing Passer (15 Yards) to the MRSH 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:09
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-5
65.9%
Marshall Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the MRSH 35Similar
Q1 6:00
1ST & 15
OWN 35
+5
66.4%
Jordan Houston run for 5 yds to the MRSH 40Similar
Q1 5:30
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+9
66.0%
Braylon Braxton pass complete to Tychaun Chapman for 9 yds to the MRSH 49Similar
Q1 5:19
3RD & 1
OWN 49
+4
65.6%
Jordan Houston run for 4 yds to the UL 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:19
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
65.5%
Braylon Braxton pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:14
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+1
65.6%
Braylon Braxton run for 1 yd to the UL 46Similar
Q1 4:23
3RD & 9
OPP 46
+9
65.7%
Braylon Braxton run for 9 yds to the UL 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:04
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+37
62.3%
Braylon Braxton pass complete to Tychaun Chapman for 37 yds for a TD (Rece Verhoff KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 1:3963% → 62%
Q1 3:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
63.1%
Zylan Perry run for 3 yds to the UL 28Similar
Q1 3:18
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+4
62.9%
Chandler Fields run for 4 yds to the UL 32Similar
Q1 2:54
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+1
62.7%
Zylan Perry run for 1 yd to the UL 33Similar
Q1 2:18
4TH & 2
OWN 33
0
62.1%
Nathan Torney punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Chuck Montgomery at the MRSH 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 6PUNT
6 plays · 17 yds · 2:1237% → 38%
Q1 2:12
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+4
62.6%
Ethan Payne run for 4 yds to the MRSH 27Similar
Q1 1:50
2ND & 6
OWN 27
+8
62.2%
Braylon Braxton run for 8 yds to the MRSH 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:27
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
62.0%
Braylon Braxton pass incomplete to Christian FitzpatrickSimilar
Q1 1:19
2ND & 10
OWN 35
0
62.2%
Braylon Braxton run for no gain to the MRSH 35Similar
Q1 0:30
3RD & 10
OWN 35
+5
62.5%
Braylon Braxton pass complete to Toby Payne for 5 yds to the MRSH 40Similar
Q1 0:00
4TH & 5
OWN 40
+3
62.2%
Alec Clark punt for 36 yds , Jacob Bernard returns for 3 yds to the UL 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 7DOWNS
7 plays · 41 yds · 2:4762% → 62%
Q2 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
61.9%
Chandler Fields pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:48
2ND & 10
OWN 27
-2
61.7%
Bill Davis run for a loss of 2 yards to the UL 25Similar
Q2 14:00
3RD & 12
OWN 25
+34
60.7%
Chandler Fields pass complete to Harvey Broussard for 34 yds to the MRSH 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:38
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
63.3%
Chandler Fields pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:31
2ND & 10
OPP 41
-2
63.2%
Bill Davis run for a loss of 2 yards to the MRSH 43Similar
Q2 12:44
3RD & 12
OPP 43
+10
61.7%
Chandler Fields run for 10 yds to the MRSH 33Similar
Q2 12:08
4TH & 2
OPP 33
+1
61.9%
Daniel Beale run for 1 yd to the MRSH 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 8FG
9 plays · 54 yds · 4:0840% → 48%
Q2 12:02
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+4
60.2%
Braylon Braxton run for 4 yds to the MRSH 36Similar
Q2 11:18
2ND & 6
OWN 36
+16
59.5%
Braylon Braxton run for 1 yd to the UL 37 for a 1ST down Louisiana Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the UL 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:02
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+3
58.7%
Jordan Houston run for 3 yds to the UL 45Similar
Q2 10:35
2ND & 7
OPP 45
0
58.5%
Braylon Braxton pass incomplete to Christian FitzpatrickSimilar
Q2 10:21
3RD & 7
OPP 45
+25
58.8%
Braylon Braxton pass complete to Carl Chester for 25 yds to the UL 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:53
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+4
57.2%
Braylon Braxton run for 4 yds to the UL 16Similar
Q2 9:10
2ND & 6
OPP 16
+2
56.9%
Braylon Braxton pass complete to Christian Fitzpatrick for 2 yds to the UL 14Similar
Q2 8:21
3RD & 4
OPP 14
0
57.3%
Braylon Braxton pass complete to Ethan Payne for no gain to the UL 14Similar
Q2 7:54
4TH & 4
OPP 14
+32
51.7%
Rece Verhoff 32 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 1:4253% → 51%
Q2 7:33
1ST & 10
OWN 8
-1
52.7%
Dre'lyn Washington run for a loss of 1 yard to the UL 7Similar
Q2 6:57
2ND & 11
OWN 7
+3
52.3%
Daniel Beale run for 3 yds to the UL 10Similar
Q2 6:22
3RD & 8
OWN 10
+5
51.2%
Daniel Beale pass complete to Dre'lyn Washington for 5 yds to the UL 15Similar
Q2 5:51
4TH & 3
OWN 15
0
50.5%
Nathan Torney punt for 41 yds, downed at the MRSH 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 10TD
7 plays · 56 yds · 2:5651% → 63%
Q2 5:43
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+13
49.2%
Braylon Braxton pass complete to Tychaun Chapman for 13 yds to the UL 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:17
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+8
48.5%
Braylon Braxton pass complete to Tychaun Chapman for 8 yds to the UL 35Similar
Q2 4:39
2ND & 2
OPP 35
0
47.7%
Braylon Braxton pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:33
3RD & 2
OPP 35
+3
48.1%
Ethan Payne run for 3 yds to the UL 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:55
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+10
47.2%
Braylon Braxton run for 10 yds to the UL 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:21
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+7
45.7%
Braylon Braxton pass complete to Chuck Montgomery for 7 yds to the UL 15Similar
Q2 2:47
2ND & 3
OPP 15
+15
36.7%
Ethan Payne run for 15 yds for a TD (Rece Verhoff KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 11INT
8 plays · 40 yds · 1:4039% → 39%
Q2 2:43
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
38.6%
Zylan Perry run for 4 yds to the UL 29Similar
Q2 2:00
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+20
37.5%
Daniel Beale pass complete to Lance LeGendre for 20 yds to the UL 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:53
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+15
39.6%
Marshall Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (15 Yards) to the MRSH 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:46
1ST & 10
OPP 36
-8
39.9%
Daniel Beale sacked by Monroe Beard III for a loss of 8 yards to the MRSH 44Similar
Q2 1:11
2ND & 18
OPP 44
+9
38.6%
Daniel Beale run for 9 yds to the MRSH 35Similar
Q2 1:03
3RD & 9
OPP 35
0
39.1%
Daniel Beale pass intercepted Josh Moten return for no gain to the MRSH 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 12PUNT
8 plays · 37 yds · 0:3865% → 69%
Q2 0:55
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+15
35.4%
Braylon Braxton pass complete to Chuck Montgomery for 15 yds to the MRSH 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:45
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+27
34.5%
Braylon Braxton pass complete to Chuck Montgomery for 27 yds to the UL 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:37
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
32.8%
Braylon Braxton pass incomplete to Christian FitzpatrickSimilar
Q2 0:31
2ND & 10
OPP 49
-9
32.7%
Braylon Braxton sacked by Cameron Whitfield for a loss of 9 yards to the MRSH 42Similar
Q2 0:25
3RD & 19
OWN 42
+4
30.1%
Jordan Houston run for 4 yds to the MRSH 46Similar
Q2 0:17
4TH & 15
OWN 46
0
30.9%
Alec Clark punt for 48 yds, downed at the UL 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 13END OF HALF
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0036% → 36%
Q2 0:11
1ST & 10
OWN 6
-1
35.5%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the UL 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 1:2266% → 66%
Q3 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+4
34.5%
Jordan Houston run for 4 yds to the MRSH 28Similar
Q3 14:40
2ND & 6
OWN 28
+1
33.8%
Braylon Braxton pass complete to Chuck Montgomery for 1 yd to the MRSH 29Similar
Q3 14:01
3RD & 5
OWN 29
0
33.6%
Braylon Braxton pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 13:31
4TH & 5
OWN 29
0
33.7%
Alec Clark punt for 42 yds, downed at the UL 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 15PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:0834% → 32%
Q3 13:15
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+6
34.1%
Zylan Perry run for 6 yds to the UL 35Similar
Q3 12:55
2ND & 4
OWN 35
0
33.8%
Daniel Beale pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:40
3RD & 4
OWN 35
+1
33.2%
Daniel Beale run for 1 yd to the UL 36Similar
Q3 12:07
4TH & 3
OWN 36
0
32.2%
Nathan Torney punt for 20 yds, downed at the MRSH 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 16TD
11 plays · 56 yds · 4:2471% → 91%
Q3 12:07
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+2
29.0%
Jordan Houston run for 2 yds to the MRSH 46Similar
Q3 11:35
2ND & 8
OWN 46
+2
28.2%
Braylon Braxton run for 2 yds to the MRSH 48Similar
Q3 11:03
3RD & 6
OWN 48
+5
27.5%
Braylon Braxton run for 5 yds to the UL 47Similar
Q3 10:30
4TH & 1
OPP 47
+3
27.9%
Ethan Payne run for 3 yds to the UL 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:57
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+3
23.9%
Ethan Payne run for 3 yds to the UL 41Similar
Q3 9:14
2ND & 7
OPP 41
+16
23.4%
Braylon Braxton run for 16 yds to the UL 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:51
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+2
22.5%
Jordan Houston run for 2 yds to the UL 23Similar
Q3 8:18
2ND & 8
OPP 23
+3
21.7%
Jordan Houston run for 3 yds to the UL 20Similar
Q3 7:43
3RD & 5
OPP 20
+20
8.9%
Braylon Braxton pass complete to Bralon Brown for 20 yds for a TD (Rece Verhoff KICK)Similar
Q3 7:43
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+15
8.9%
Louisiana Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (15 Yards) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 17PUNT
10 plays · 13 yds · 3:1913% → 8%
Q3 7:33
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
12.9%
Dre'lyn Washington run for 6 yds to the UL 31Similar
Q3 7:10
2ND & 4
OWN 31
-5
13.3%
Louisiana Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the UL 26Similar
Q3 6:53
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+5
12.4%
Dre'lyn Washington run for 5 yds to the UL 31Similar
Q3 6:28
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+2
12.5%
Dre'lyn Washington run for 2 yds to the UL 33Similar
Q3 5:50
4TH & 2
OWN 33
+4
9.5%
Dre'lyn Washington run for 4 yds to the UL 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:05
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
9.1%
Daniel Beale pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:58
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+1
8.7%
Bill Davis run for 1 yd to the UL 38Similar
Q3 4:21
3RD & 9
OWN 38
0
8.3%
Daniel Beale pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:14
4TH & 9
OWN 38
0
8.0%
Nathan Torney punt for 31 yds, fair catch by Chuck Montgomery at the MRSH 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 18PUNT
8 plays · 28 yds · 3:3794% → 96%
Q3 4:03
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
5.7%
Braylon Braxton pass complete to Tychaun Chapman for no gain to the MRSH 31Similar
Q3 3:23
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+9
5.3%
Braylon Braxton pass complete to Tychaun Chapman for 9 yds to the MRSH 40Similar
Q3 3:09
3RD & 1
OWN 40
+4
4.9%
Jordan Houston run for 4 yds to the MRSH 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:35
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+11
4.6%
Jordan Houston run for 11 yds to the UL 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:00
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+3
4.2%
Jordan Houston run for 3 yds to the UL 42Similar
Q3 1:16
2ND & 7
OPP 42
+1
4.0%
Ethan Payne run for 1 yd to the UL 41Similar
Q3 0:35
3RD & 6
OPP 41
0
3.8%
Braylon Braxton pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 0:26
4TH & 6
OPP 41
+16
4.2%
Alec Clark punt for 31 yds, fair catch by Jacob Bernard at the UL 10 Marshall Penalty, Kick Catching Interference (-15 Yards) to the UL 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 19DOWNS
23 plays · 66 yds · 8:065% → 2%
Q3 0:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
5.4%
Daniel Beale pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 0:02
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+5
5.3%
Zylan Perry run for 5 yds to the UL 30Similar
Q4 14:23
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
5.0%
Daniel Beale pass complete to Lance LeGendre for no gain to the UL 30Similar
Q4 14:11
4TH & 5
OWN 30
+6
4.2%
Daniel Beale pass complete to Jacob Bernard for 6 yds to the UL 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:41
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
4.2%
Daniel Beale pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:33
2ND & 10
OWN 36
0
4.1%
Daniel Beale pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:04
3RD & 10
OWN 36
+13
3.6%
Daniel Beale pass complete to Tavion Smith for 13 yds to the UL 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:58
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-2
3.9%
Dre'lyn Washington run for a loss of 2 yards to the UL 47Similar
Q4 12:18
2ND & 12
OWN 47
0
3.6%
Daniel Beale pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:09
3RD & 12
OWN 47
+6
3.5%
Zylan Perry run for 6 yds to the MRSH 47Similar
Q4 11:41
4TH & 6
OPP 47
+5
3.5%
Marshall Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the MRSH 42Similar
Q4 11:34
4TH & 1
OPP 42
+1
3.7%
Bill Davis run for 1 yd to the MRSH 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:48
1ST & 10
OPP 41
-5
3.5%
Daniel Beale sacked by Mike Green for a loss of 5 yards to the MRSH 46Similar
Q4 10:11
2ND & 15
OPP 46
+18
3.0%
Daniel Beale pass complete to Harvey Broussard for 18 yds to the MRSH 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:37
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
3.4%
Daniel Beale run for no gain to the MRSH 28Similar
Q4 9:08
2ND & 10
OPP 28
0
3.2%
Daniel Beale pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:58
3RD & 10
OPP 28
+8
3.0%
Daniel Beale pass complete to Dre'lyn Washington for 8 yds to the MRSH 20Similar
Q4 8:18
4TH & 2
OPP 20
+10
2.9%
Marshall Penalty, Defensive Holding (10 Yards) to the MRSH 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:11
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
0
3.0%
Daniel Beale pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:04
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
0
3.0%
Daniel Beale pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 7:58
3RD & GOAL
OPP 10
0
2.8%
Daniel Beale pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 7:04
4TH & GOAL
OPP 10
+1
2.0%
Daniel Beale run for 1 yd to the MRSH 9 Louisiana Penalty, Illegal Forward Pass (Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 20TD
10 plays · 86 yds · 5:0199% → 100%
Q4 7:04
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+15
1.3%
Louisiana Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the MRSH 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:41
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+4
1.2%
Jordan Houston run for 4 yds to the MRSH 33Similar
Q4 6:32
2ND & 6
OWN 33
+4
1.1%
Braylon Braxton run for 4 yds to the MRSH 37Similar
Q4 5:29
3RD & 2
OWN 37
+6
0.9%
Jordan Houston run for 6 yds to the MRSH 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:29
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+33
0.8%
Jordan Houston run for 33 yds to the UL 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:47
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+4
0.7%
Ethan Payne run for 4 yds to the UL 20Similar
Q4 4:00
2ND & 6
OPP 20
+7
0.6%
Ethan Payne run for 7 yds to the UL 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:14
1ST & 10
OPP 13
-1
0.5%
Ethan Payne run for a loss of 1 yard to the UL 14Similar
Q4 2:50
2ND & 11
OPP 14
+5
0.5%
Louisiana Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the UL 9Similar
Q4 2:03
2ND & 6
OPP 9
+9
0.1%
Jordan Houston run for 9 yds for a TD (Rece Verhoff KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 21DOWNS
6 plays · 25 yds · 0:380% → 0%
Q4 1:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+19
0.1%
Daniel Beale pass complete to Harvey Broussard for 19 yds to the UL 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:42
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+6
0.1%
Daniel Beale pass complete to Caden Jensen for 6 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 1:30
2ND & 4
50
0
0.1%
Daniel Beale pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:25
3RD & 4
50
0
0.1%
Daniel Beale pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:21
4TH & 4
50
0
0.1%
Daniel Beale pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 22END OF GAME
2 plays · -5 yds · 0:39100% → 100%
Q4 1:14
1ST & 10
50
-2
0.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the MRSH 48Similar
Q4 0:35
2ND & 12
OWN 48
-3
0.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 3 yards to the MRSH 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 7:43
Braylon Braxton pass complete to Bralon Brown for 20 yds for a TD (Rece Verhoff KICK)
-12.9
TD · Q2 2:47
Ethan Payne run for 15 yds for a TD (Rece Verhoff KICK)
-8.9
FG · Q2 7:54
Rece Verhoff 32 yd FG GOOD
-5.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com