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Win probability · UL
modelUL aheadTULN aheadconfidence bandkey playUL scoreTULN score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:54 · Ben Wooldridge pass intercepted Jalen Geiger return for 7 yds to the TULN 28
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsPregame prior
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 1:40: Ben Wooldridge pass intercepted Jack Tchienchou return for 38 yds for a TD (Ethan Head KICK) — TULN win probability +13.3 pts (now 63%) (top driver: UL has the ball).
- TD · Q3 6:42: Ben Wooldridge pass complete to Terrance Carter for 36 yds for a TD (Kenneth Almendares KICK) — UL win probability +15.1 pts (now 44%) (top driver: Game still competitive relative to time left).
- TD · Q3 3:11: Makhi Hughes run for 1 yd for a TD (Ethan Head KICK) — TULN win probability +13.0 pts (now 84%) (top driver: TULN has the ball).
- TD · Q4 13:17: Ben Wooldridge run for 2 yds for a TD (Kenneth Almendares KICK) — UL win probability +19.8 pts (now 42%) (top driver: UL has the ball).
- FG · Q4 5:42: Ethan Head 38 yd FG GOOD — TULN win probability +8.7 pts (now 90%) (top driver: TULN has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
UL made the numbers' call on 4 of 6TULN made the numbers' call on 2 of 5
- Q1 13:29UL 4th & 4 at UL 31, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 47.8% before the snapGo for it47.9%−0.148% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call47.9%average punt
- Q1 11:30TULN 4th & 6 at TULN 49, tiedClose callPunted · 51.7% before the snapGo for it51.7%40% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call51.7%−<0.1average punt
- Q1 3:34TULN 4th & 1 at UL 45, down 7Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 46.4% before the snapGo for itTheir call46.5%70% to convertField goal45.1%−1.325% to makePunt45.6%−0.8average punt
- Q2 11:46UL 4th & 2 at TULN 27, tiedAgrees with the numbersWent for it · 52.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call52.1%57% to convertField goal51.6%−0.562% to makePunt49.5%−2.6average punt
- Q2 9:14UL 4th & 3 at TULN 3, tiedClose callKicked a field goal · 52.8% before the snapGo for it53.1%44% to convertField goalTheir call52.4%−0.793% to makePunt48.7%−4.4average punt
- Q2 2:02TULN 4th & 4 at UL 19, down 3Close callKicked a field goal · 45.4% before the snapGo for it45.0%47% to convertField goalTheir call44.5%−0.577% to makePunt38.6%−6.4average punt
- Q2 0:03UL 4th & 10 at TULN 14, down 7Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 38.8% before the snapGo for it36.7%−1.526% to convertField goalTheir call38.2%84% to makePunt28.8%−9.4average punt
- Q4 5:42TULN 4th & 4 at UL 20, up 5Numbers favored go for it by 1.6 ptsKicked a field goal · 76.2% before the snapGo for it75.7%47% to convertField goalTheir call74.1%−1.675% to makePunt58.1%−17.6average punt
- Q4 4:09UL 4th & 9 at UL 26, down 8Close callWent for it · 12.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call9.9%−0.130% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt10.1%average punt
- Q4 3:09TULN 4th & 5 at UL 21, up 8Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 91.9% before the snapGo for it91.1%−0.140% to convertField goalTheir call91.2%74% to makePunt86.4%−4.8average punt
- Q4 0:54UL 4th & 9 at TULN 41, down 8Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 7.6% before the snapGo for itTheir call7.3%32% to convertField goal6.9%−0.432% to makePunt5.2%−2.1average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UL made the numbers' call on 3 of 3TULN made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
- Q1 7:26UL Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call51.7%97% to makeGo for two51.7%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 14:57TULN Touchdown, down 1 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call48.6%97% to makeGo for two48.6%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 1:40TULN Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call59.9%97% to makeGo for two59.8%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 6:42UL Touchdown, down 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call37.4%97% to makeGo for two37.2%−0.245% to convert
- Q3 3:11TULN Touchdown, up 11 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call77.7%97% to makeGo for two77.6%−0.145% to convert
- Q4 13:17UL Touchdown, down 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call32.1%97% to makeGo for two31.9%−0.245% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartULDrive 1PUNT5 plays · 6 yds · 1:3047% → 47%
Q1 14:10
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+17
46.7%
(14:10) WOOLDRIDGE, Ben pass deep up the middle complete for 17 yards to BERNARD, Jacob caught at the UL47 and advanced to the UL47 (DESPANIE, Bailey), 1ST DOWN, clock 14:01. PENALTY Before the snap, UL Illegal Formation TUL Offsides on GEIGER, Jalen , Offsetting penalties [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 2PUNT6 plays · 19 yds · 1:4653% → 53%
ULDrive 3TD9 plays · 79 yds · 3:5347% → 52%
Q1 10:20
3RD & 6
OWN 25
+15
47.4%
(10:20) WOOLDRIDGE, Ben pass deep to the left incomplete intended for BROUSSARD, Harvey thrown to the UL50, clock 10:16. PENALTY TUL Pass Interference on PLEASANT, Rayshawn enforced 15 yards to the UL40 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 8:45
2ND & 6
OPP 39
+32
48.6%
Ben Wooldridge pass complete to Jaydon Johnson for 32 yds to the TULN 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:18
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+5
48.9%
(08:18) WOOLDRIDGE, Ben pass up the middle incomplete intended for BROUSSARD, Harvey thrown to the TUL0, clock 08:14. PENALTY TUL Pass Interference on EDWARDS, Johnathan enforced 5 yards to the TUL2 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 4TD15 plays · 65 yds · 7:2349% → 53%
Q1 5:09
2ND & 7
OWN 49
+2
51.5%
Darian Mensah pass complete to Arnold Barnes III for 2 yds to the UL 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 5FG12 plays · 72 yds · 5:4350% → 53%
Q2 14:39
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+8
50.5%
Ben Wooldridge pass complete to Zylan Perry for 8 yds to the UL 44Similar
Q2 14:05
2ND & 2
OWN 44
+21
51.7%
Ben Wooldridge pass complete to Lance LeGendre for 21 yds to the TULN 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:58
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+15
53.4%
(10:58) WOOLDRIDGE, Ben pass to the right incomplete intended for BROUSSARD, Harvey thrown to the TUL10, clock 10:53. PENALTY TUL Pass Interference on ADAMS III, Kevin enforced half the distance from the goal, 15 yards to the TUL10 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 10:10
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+5
53.7%
Ben Wooldridge pass complete to Caden Jensen for 5 yds to the TULN 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 6FG13 plays · 59 yds · 7:0747% → 52%
Q2 8:06
3RD & 4
OWN 28
+5
53.8%
Darian Mensah pass complete to Mario Williams for 5 yds to the TULN 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:28
1ST & 10
OPP 36
-2
51.5%
Darian Mensah pass complete to Yulkeith Brown for 8 yds to the UL 28 Tulane Penalty, Offensive Holding (Yulkeith Brown) to the UL 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 7INT TD5 plays · 5 yds · 0:2253% → 37%
Q2 1:48
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+5
50.4%
WOOLDRIDGE, Ben pass to the left incomplete intended for BROUSSARD, Harvey thrown to the UL35, clock 01:48. PENALTY TUL Offsides on HENDERSON, Gerrod enforced 5 yards from the UL25 to the UL30 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 1:40
3RD & 5
OWN 30
-38
37.1%
Ben Wooldridge pass intercepted Jack Tchienchou return for 38 yds for a TD (Ethan Head KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 8FG16 plays · 61 yds · 1:3738% → 43%
Q2 1:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
37.5%
Ben Wooldridge pass complete to Jacob Bernard for 8 yds to the UL 33Similar
Q2 1:16
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+15
39.2%
Ben Wooldridge pass complete to Jacob Bernard for 15 yds to the UL 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:55
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-5
40.2%
Ben Wooldridge sacked by Sam Howard and Deshaun Batiste for a loss of 5 yards to the UL 43Similar
Q2 0:50
2ND & 15
OWN 43
+15
37.9%
Ben Wooldridge pass complete to Terrance Carter for 15 yds to the TULN 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:36
3RD & 10
OPP 42
+15
39.8%
(00:36) WOOLDRIDGE, Ben pass deep up the middle incomplete intended for LEGENDRE, Lance thrown to the TUL26, clock 00:32. PENALTY TUL Pass Interference on RANSAW, Caleb enforced 15 yards to the TUL27 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 0:30
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+3
42.5%
Ben Wooldridge pass complete to Dre'lyn Washington for 3 yds to the TULN 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 9END OF HALF1 play · -2 yds · 0:0057% → 57%
Q2 0:02
1ST & 10
OWN 15
-2
42.9%
(00:02) [NHSG] Kneel down by TUL at TUL13 (team loss of 2), clock 00:00.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 10TD3 plays · 75 yds · 1:4030% → 33%
Q3 13:06
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
32.9%
Caden Jensen 1 Yd pass from Ben Wooldridge (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 11TD8 plays · 73 yds · 3:5972% → 78%
Q3 11:11
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+5
25.5%
Darian Mensah pass complete to Shadre Hurst for 5 yds to the UL 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 12TD4 plays · 72 yds · 2:0428% → 44%
TULNDrive 13TD7 plays · 73 yds · 3:2563% → 84%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 14TD11 plays · 75 yds · 4:5422% → 42%
Q3 1:02
3RD & 3
OPP 46
+6
22.5%
Ben Wooldridge pass complete to Tavion Smith for 6 yds to the TULN 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 11
OPP 41
-10
21.4%
(15:00) DAVIS, Bill rush up the middle for a gain of 7 yards to the TUL34 (AGU, Dickson), clock 14:55. PENALTY UL Holding on BURTON, Landon enforced 10 yards from the TUL41 to the UL49 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 14:31
2ND & 21
OWN 49
+15
18.8%
Tulane Penalty, Roughing the Passer on HUNTINGTON, Adin enforced (Adin Huntington) to the TULN 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:21
2ND & 11
OPP 15
+13
21.7%
WOOLDRIDGE, Ben pass to the left incomplete intended for LEGENDRE, Lance thrown to the TUL0, clock 13:21. PENALTY TUL Pass Interference on RANSAW, Caleb enforced 13 yards to the TUL2 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 13:17
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
41.5%
Ben Wooldridge run for 2 yds for a TD (Kenneth Almendares KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 15FG13 plays · 55 yds · 7:3469% → 90%
Q4 10:36
2ND & 8
OPP 48
-5
24.6%
Darian Mensah pass complete to Mario Williams for a loss of 5 yards to the TULN 47Similar
Q4 9:52
3RD & 13
OWN 47
+14
27.5%
Darian Mensah pass complete to Mario Williams for 14 yds to the UL 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:33
2ND & 9
OPP 38
+8
22.6%
Darian Mensah pass complete to Dontae Fleming for 8 yds to the UL 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 16DOWNS4 plays · 1 yds · 1:3314% → 12%
TULNDrive 17MISSED FG6 plays · 5 yds · 0:5693% → 93%
Q4 3:13
3RD & 9
OPP 25
+4
5.8%
Darian Mensah pass complete to Mario Williams for 4 yds to the UL 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 18DOWNS10 plays · 51 yds · 2:098% → 4%
Q4 2:22
3RD & 6
OWN 25
+12
4.5%
Ben Wooldridge pass complete to Lance LeGendre for 12 yds to the UL 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:59
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+3
5.5%
Ben Wooldridge pass complete to Terrance Carter for 3 yds to the UL 40Similar
Q4 1:30
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+3
6.8%
Ben Wooldridge pass complete to Zylan Perry for 3 yds to the TULN 39Similar
Q4 1:26
2ND & 7
OPP 39
-12
6.9%
Ben Wooldridge pass incomplete Louisiana Penalty, Intentional Grounding (Ben Wooldridge) to the UL 49Similar
Q4 1:00
3RD & 19
OWN 49
+10
4.5%
Ben Wooldridge pass complete to Bill Davis for 10 yds to the TULN 41Similar
Q4 0:54
4TH & 9
OPP 41
-7
4.4%
Ben Wooldridge pass intercepted Jalen Geiger return for 7 yds to the TULN 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 13:17
Ben Wooldridge run for 2 yds for a TD (Kenneth Almendares KICK)
+19.8
TD · Q3 6:42
Ben Wooldridge pass complete to Terrance Carter for 36 yds for a TD (Kenneth Almendares KICK)
+15.1
TD · Q2 1:40
Ben Wooldridge pass intercepted Jack Tchienchou return for 38 yds for a TD (Ethan Head KICK)
-13.3