Try the model
USA

South Alabama 24 at Louisiana 22

UL
2024 · Week 12 · Nov 16, 2024 · Cajun Field
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · UL
modelUL aheadUSA aheadconfidence bandkey playUL scoreUSA score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGTDFGFGFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 10:54 · Ben Wooldridge run for 6 yds to the USA 33 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+37.0+18.50−18.5−37.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 7Home team on offense+0.3Pregame prior+16.9Score differential−0.1Garbage-time factor−0.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.0Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 14:54: Gio Lopez run for 9 yds for a TD (Laith Marjan KICK) — USA win probability +7.7 pts (now 47%) (top driver: USA has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 6:18: Kentrel Bullock run for 2 yds for a TD (Laith Marjan KICK) — USA win probability +15.3 pts (now 67%) (top driver: USA has the ball).
  3. FG · Q3 5:11: Kenneth Almendares 25 yd FG GOOD — UL win probability +9.6 pts (now 20%) (top driver: UL has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 8:28: Chandler Fields pass complete to Dre'lyn Washington for 66 yds for a TD (Kenneth Almendares KICK) — UL win probability +13.8 pts (now 22%) (top driver: UL has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 1:16: Chandler Fields run for 2 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed) — UL win probability +31.2 pts (now 38%) (top driver: UL has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UL made the numbers' call on 9 of 9USA made the numbers' call on 3 of 6
  1. Q1 10:54UL 4th & 2 at USA 39, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 67.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    67.8%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    67.7%−0.2
    36% to make
    Punt
    67.7%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:19UL 4th & 2 at USA 25, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 67.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    67.8%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    67.7%−0.1
    66% to make
    Punt
    67.0%−0.8
    average punt
  3. Q1 1:50UL 4th & 16 at UL 49, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 60.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.2%−1.0
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    61.1%
    average punt
  4. Q2 10:24UL 4th & 8 at USA 18, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 50.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.2%−0.7
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    49.9%
    79% to make
    Punt
    44.9%−5.0
    average punt
  5. Q2 4:34USA 4th & 4 at UL 42, up 18
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.8 ptsPunted · 67.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.5%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    65.3%−2.2
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    65.7%−1.8
    average punt
  6. Q2 3:19UL 4th & 4 at UL 12, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 34.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.8%−1.0
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    34.8%
    average punt
  7. Q2 1:47USA 4th & 1 at USA 43, up 18
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.4 ptsPunted · 71.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.9%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    70.6%−2.4
    average punt
  8. Q3 13:47USA 4th & 8 at USA 27, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 80.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.0%−1.2
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    81.2%
    average punt
  9. Q3 7:57UL 4th & 3 at USA 23, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 17.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    17.1%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    16.2%−0.8
    70% to make
    Punt
    8.4%−8.6
    average punt
  10. Q3 5:11UL 4th & 8 at USA 8, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 10.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.5%−0.9
    26% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    10.3%
    90% to make
    Punt
    1.5%−8.8
    average punt
  11. Q3 3:00USA 4th & 6 at USA 44, up 18
    Close callWent for it · 89.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    89.9%−0.7
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    90.6%
    average punt
  12. Q3 1:12UL 4th & 2 at USA 13, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 15.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    15.1%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    13.4%−1.7
    85% to make
    Punt
    2.6%−12.5
    average punt
  13. Q4 14:18UL 4th & 5 at USA 5, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 12.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.7%−0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    11.8%
    92% to make
    Punt
    2.3%−9.6
    average punt
  14. Q4 12:48USA 4th & 1 at USA 34, up 15
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 88.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    89.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    88.1%−1.6
    average punt
  15. Q4 9:33USA 4th & 15 at USA 45, up 15
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 92.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.6%−1.8
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    92.4%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UL made the numbers' call on 1 of 2USA made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 5:10USA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    35.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    35.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 14:54USA Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    44.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    44.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 6:18USA Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    60.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    59.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 8:28UL Touchdown, down 9 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    19.2%−0.7
    97% to make
    Go for two
    19.9%
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 1:16UL Touchdown, down 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · failed
    Kick
    26.0%−5.7
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    31.7%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ULDrive 1DOWNS
11 plays · 40 yds · 5:3468% → 68%
Q1 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+4
68.1%
Zylan Perry run for 4 yds to the UL 38Similar
Q1 14:17
2ND & 6
OWN 38
+5
68.1%
Ben Wooldridge pass complete to Harvey Broussard for 5 yds to the UL 43Similar
Q1 13:42
3RD & 1
OWN 43
+10
68.1%
Bill Davis run for 10 yds to the USA 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:48
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+2
68.1%
Zylan Perry run for 2 yds to the USA 45Similar
Q1 12:11
2ND & 8
OPP 45
+4
68.1%
Ben Wooldridge pass complete to Lance LeGendre for 4 yds to the USA 41Similar
Q1 11:32
3RD & 4
OPP 41
+2
68.1%
Zylan Perry run for 2 yds to the USA 39Similar
Q1 10:54
4TH & 2
OPP 39
+6
67.8%
Ben Wooldridge run for 6 yds to the USA 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:15
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
68.2%
Ben Wooldridge pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:09
2ND & 10
OPP 33
0
68.2%
Ben Wooldridge pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:03
3RD & 10
OPP 33
+8
67.9%
Dre'lyn Washington run for 8 yds to the USA 25Similar
Q1 9:19
4TH & 2
OPP 25
-1
67.8%
Dre'lyn Washington run for a loss of 1 yard to the USA 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 2TD
9 plays · 74 yds · 4:0133% → 38%
Q1 9:11
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+14
67.3%
Gio Lopez pass complete to Shamar Sandgren for 14 yds to the USA 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+20
66.9%
Gio Lopez pass complete to Shamar Sandgren for 20 yds to the UL 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:25
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+9
66.5%
Gio Lopez pass complete to Jamaal Pritchett for 9 yds to the UL 31Similar
Q1 7:54
2ND & 1
OPP 31
+14
66.2%
Gio Lopez pass complete to Jamaal Pritchett for 14 yds to the UL 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:24
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+3
65.9%
Fluff Bothwell run for 3 yds to the UL 14Similar
Q1 7:02
2ND & 7
OPP 14
+2
65.8%
Fluff Bothwell run for 2 yds to the UL 12Similar
Q1 6:27
3RD & 5
OPP 12
+11
66.0%
Fluff Bothwell run for 11 yds to the UL 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:48
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
-1
65.5%
Fluff Bothwell run for a loss of 1 yard to the UL 2Similar
Q1 5:10
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
62.0%
Gio Lopez run for 2 yds for a TD (Laith Marjan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 3PUNT
7 plays · 34 yds · 3:1463% → 61%
Q1 5:04
1ST & 10
OWN 15
0
63.1%
Bill Davis run for no gain to the UL 15Similar
Q1 4:14
2ND & 10
OWN 15
+25
62.7%
Ben Wooldridge pass complete to Harvey Broussard for 25 yds to the UL 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:43
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+15
63.2%
Bill Davis run for 15 yds to the USA 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:21
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
63.7%
Ben Wooldridge pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:15
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+6
63.5%
Ben Wooldridge pass complete to Robert Williams for 6 yds to the USA 39Similar
Q1 2:34
3RD & 4
OPP 39
-12
62.8%
Ben Wooldridge sacked by Parker Shattuck for a loss of 12 yards to the UL 49Similar
Q1 1:50
4TH & 16
OWN 49
0
60.7%
Nathan Torney punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Jamaal Pritchett at the USA 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 4TD
6 plays · 90 yds · 1:5139% → 47%
Q1 1:45
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+13
60.9%
Gio Lopez pass complete to Jamaal Pritchett for 13 yds to the USA 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:21
1ST & 10
OWN 23
-5
60.6%
South Alabama Penalty, False Start (Jaden Voisin) to the USA 18Similar
Q1 1:05
1ST & 15
OWN 18
0
60.5%
Gio Lopez pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:00
2ND & 15
OWN 18
+6
60.5%
Gio Lopez run for 6 yds to the USA 24Similar
Q1 0:19
3RD & 9
OWN 24
+67
60.4%
Gio Lopez pass complete to Jamaal Pritchett for 67 yds to the UL 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:54
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
52.7%
Gio Lopez run for 9 yds for a TD (Laith Marjan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 5FG
8 plays · 44 yds · 4:2056% → 54%
Q2 14:44
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+17
55.5%
Ben Wooldridge pass complete to Terrance Carter for 17 yds to the USA 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:11
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+4
55.5%
Bill Davis run for 4 yds to the USA 41Similar
Q2 13:25
2ND & 6
OPP 41
+21
54.5%
Ben Wooldridge pass complete to Lance LeGendre for 21 yds to the USA 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:43
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+8
54.3%
Ben Wooldridge pass complete to Lance LeGendre for 8 yds to the USA 12Similar
Q2 12:01
2ND & 2
OPP 12
-1
52.7%
Bill Davis run for a loss of 1 yard to the USA 13Similar
Q2 11:20
3RD & 3
OPP 13
-10
51.6%
(11:20) WOOLDRIDGE, Ben pass short to the right incomplete intended for CAMBRE, Dalen thrown to the USA11, clock 11:12. PENALTY UL Holding on CARTER, Terrance enforced 10 yards from the USA13 to the USA23 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 11:11
3RD & 13
OPP 23
+5
51.1%
Ben Wooldridge pass complete to Harvey Broussard for 5 yds to the USA 18Similar
Q2 10:24
4TH & 8
OPP 18
+35
54.0%
Kenneth Almendares 35 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 6TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 4:0447% → 67%
Q2 10:22
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
52.9%
Fluff Bothwell run for 1 yd to the USA 26Similar
Q2 9:54
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
52.9%
Gio Lopez pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:48
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+9
53.1%
Gio Lopez pass complete to Jeremiah Webb for 9 yds to the USA 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:15
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+8
51.8%
Fluff Bothwell run for 8 yds to the USA 43Similar
Q2 8:52
2ND & 2
OWN 43
+6
50.7%
Fluff Bothwell run for 6 yds to the USA 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:37
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+13
50.4%
Gio Lopez pass complete to Jamaal Pritchett for 13 yds to the UL 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:56
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+3
49.6%
Gio Lopez run for 3 yds to the UL 35Similar
Q2 7:26
2ND & 7
OPP 35
+10
48.7%
(07:26) LOPEZ, Gio pass to the left complete for 5 yards to THOMAS-JONES, DJ caught at the UL37 and advanced to the UL30 (GLASS, Carmycah), out of bounds, clock 07:21. PENALTY UL Holding on AGU, Justin enforced 10 yards from the UL35 to the UL25 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 7:10
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+20
48.4%
Gio Lopez pass complete to Jamaal Pritchett for 20 yds to the UL 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:48
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+3
48.1%
Gio Lopez pass complete to DJ Thomas-Jones for 3 yds to the UL 2Similar
Q2 6:18
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
32.8%
Kentrel Bullock run for 2 yds for a TD (Laith Marjan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 7FUMBLE
1 play · 22 yds · 0:0039% → 39%
Q2 6:11
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+22
39.3%
Dre'lyn Washington run for 22 yds to the UL 48 Dre'lyn Washington fumbled, recovered by USA Wesley Miller W. Miller return for 0 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 8PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:2567% → 67%
Q2 5:59
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
33.4%
Gio Lopez pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:49
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+7
33.2%
Gio Lopez pass complete to Shamar Sandgren for 7 yds to the UL 41Similar
Q2 5:16
3RD & 3
OPP 41
-1
32.8%
Kentrel Bullock run for a loss of 1 yard to the UL 42Similar
Q2 4:34
4TH & 4
OPP 42
0
32.7%
Jack Martin punt for 36 yds, downed at the UL 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 9PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:0636% → 34%
Q2 4:25
1ST & 10
OWN 6
0
36.2%
Ben Wooldridge pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:18
2ND & 10
OWN 6
+2
35.9%
Bill Davis run for 2 yds to the UL 8Similar
Q2 4:03
3RD & 8
OWN 8
+4
35.5%
Bill Davis run for 4 yds to the UL 12Similar
Q2 3:19
4TH & 4
OWN 12
0
34.2%
Nathan Torney punt for 54 yds, downed at the USA 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 10PUNT
6 plays · 9 yds · 1:1670% → 72%
Q2 3:03
1ST & 10
OWN 34
-1
30.2%
Gio Lopez run for a loss of 1 yard to the USA 33Similar
Q2 2:29
2ND & 11
OWN 33
+1
30.4%
Gio Lopez pass complete to Jeremiah Webb for 1 yd to the USA 34Similar
Q2 1:59
3RD & 10
OWN 34
+9
28.1%
Gio Lopez pass complete to Fluff Bothwell for 9 yds to the USA 43Similar
Q2 1:47
4TH & 1
OWN 43
+1
27.7%
Aleksi Pulkkinen punt for 36 yds , Jacob Bernard returns for 1 yd to the UL 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 11INT
2 plays · 19 yds · 0:0730% → 31%
Q2 1:34
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+15
30.4%
South Alabama Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (Courtney McBride Jr.) to the UL 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:27
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
31.0%
Ben Wooldridge pass intercepted Jaden Voisin return for no gain to the USA 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 12FG
12 plays · 36 yds · 1:1475% → 85%
Q2 1:14
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+9
25.1%
Gio Lopez pass complete to Kentrel Bullock for 9 yds to the UL 44Similar
Q2 0:55
2ND & 1
OPP 44
+2
23.1%
Kentrel Bullock run for 2 yds to the UL 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:43
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+5
23.7%
Gio Lopez run for 5 yds to the UL 37Similar
Q2 0:43
2ND & 5
OPP 37
+6
22.0%
Gio Lopez run for 6 yds to the UL 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:31
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
22.2%
Gio Lopez pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:25
2ND & 10
OPP 31
+21
22.8%
Gio Lopez pass complete to Jamaal Pritchett for 31 yds for a 1ST down South Alabama Penalty, Offensive Holding (Kentrel Bullock) to the UL 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:17
1ST & 10
OPP 18
-3
20.9%
Gio Lopez pass complete to Jamaal Pritchett for a loss of 3 yards to the UL 21Similar
Q2 0:11
2ND & 13
OPP 21
+4
21.6%
Kentrel Bullock run for 4 yds to the UL 17Similar
Q2 0:00
3RD & 9
OPP 17
+35
15.3%
Laith Marjan 35 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 13PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 1:1380% → 80%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
19.8%
South Alabama Penalty, False Start (Malachi Carney) to the USA 20Similar
Q3 14:53
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+6
19.8%
Gio Lopez pass complete to Devin Voisin for 6 yds to the USA 26Similar
Q3 14:30
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+1
19.1%
Kentrel Bullock run for 1 yd to the USA 27Similar
Q3 13:53
3RD & 8
OWN 27
0
18.9%
Gio Lopez pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 13:47
4TH & 8
OWN 27
0
19.8%
Aleksi Pulkkinen punt for 41 yds , Jacob Bernard returns for no gain to the UL 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 14FG
18 plays · 60 yds · 8:2824% → 20%
Q3 13:39
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+2
24.0%
Bill Davis run for 2 yds to the UL 34Similar
Q3 13:11
2ND & 8
OWN 34
+3
23.4%
Bill Davis run for 3 yds to the UL 37Similar
Q3 12:24
3RD & 5
OWN 37
+5
22.6%
(12:24) WOOLDRIDGE, Ben pass to the right incomplete intended for WILLIAMS, Robert thrown to the USA50, clock 12:18. PENALTY USA Offsides on THOMAS, Tyler enforced 5 yards from the UL37 to the UL42 and results in a 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 12:18
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+12
23.4%
Ben Wooldridge run for 12 yds to the USA 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:49
1ST & 10
OPP 46
-15
23.7%
(11:49) FIELDS, Chandler pass short to the right complete for 8 yards to WILLIAMS, Robert caught at the USA41 and advanced to the USA38, out of bounds, clock 11:43. PENALTY UL Pass Interference on LEGENDRE, Lance enforced 15 yards to the UL39 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 11:31
1ST & 25
OWN 39
+13
21.4%
Chandler Fields pass complete to Lance LeGendre for 13 yds to the USA 48Similar
Q3 10:49
2ND & 12
OPP 48
+3
22.1%
Bill Davis run for 3 yds to the USA 45Similar
Q3 10:08
3RD & 9
OPP 45
+15
20.6%
Chandler Fields pass complete to Terrance Carter for 15 yds to the USA 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:50
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+6
20.9%
Bill Davis run for 6 yds to the USA 24Similar
Q3 9:16
2ND & 4
OPP 24
-15
20.6%
Louisiana Penalty, Personal Foul (King McGowen) to the USA 44Similar
Q3 8:47
3RD & 24
OPP 44
+21
16.3%
Chandler Fields pass complete to Harvey Broussard for 21 yds to the USA 23Similar
Q3 7:57
4TH & 3
OPP 23
+4
17.0%
Chandler Fields run for 4 yds to the USA 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:14
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+12
17.2%
Dre'lyn Washington run for 12 yds to the USA 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:39
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
-1
16.7%
Chandler Fields run for a loss of 1 yard to the USA 8Similar
Q3 5:58
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
0
11.6%
Chandler Fields pass complete to Terrance Carter for no gain to the USA 8Similar
Q3 5:19
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
0
10.6%
Chandler Fields pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:11
4TH & GOAL
OPP 8
+25
20.2%
Kenneth Almendares 25 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 15DOWNS
6 plays · -5 yds · 2:0587% → 90%
Q3 5:05
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+8
13.1%
Fluff Bothwell run for 8 yds to the USA 34Similar
Q3 4:44
2ND & 2
OWN 34
+6
12.6%
Gio Lopez pass complete to Jeremiah Webb for 6 yds to the USA 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:15
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+5
11.4%
Gio Lopez pass complete to Trent Thomas for 5 yds to the USA 45Similar
Q3 3:55
2ND & 5
OWN 45
-1
11.1%
Bishop Davenport run for a loss of 1 yard to the USA 44Similar
Q3 3:14
3RD & 6
OWN 44
0
9.3%
Gio Lopez pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:00
4TH & 6
OWN 44
-23
9.6%
TEAM run for a loss of 23 yards to the USA 21 fumbled, recovered by UL Trey Fite T. Fite return for 0 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 16FG
8 plays · 16 yds · 3:1018% → 19%
Q3 2:28
1ST & 10
OPP 21
0
18.2%
Chandler Fields pass complete to Jacob Bernard for no gain to the USA 21Similar
Q3 2:15
2ND & 10
OPP 21
+8
17.8%
Chandler Fields pass complete to Lance LeGendre for 8 yds to the USA 13Similar
Q3 1:53
3RD & 2
OPP 13
0
16.4%
Dre'lyn Washington run for no gain to the USA 13Similar
Q3 1:12
4TH & 2
OPP 13
+5
15.4%
Bill Davis run for 5 yds to the USA 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:31
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+2
14.6%
Bill Davis run for 2 yds to the USA 6Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
0
14.3%
Chandler Fields pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
+1
13.6%
Chandler Fields run for 1 yd to the USA 5Similar
Q4 14:18
4TH & GOAL
OPP 5
+22
18.8%
Kenneth Almendares 22 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 17PUNT
10 plays · 20 yds · 4:4388% → 92%
Q4 14:16
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
11.9%
Gio Lopez pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:13
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+4
11.9%
Kentrel Bullock run for 4 yds to the USA 29Similar
Q4 13:32
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+5
11.1%
Gio Lopez pass complete to Jamaal Pritchett for 5 yds to the USA 34Similar
Q4 12:48
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+4
10.8%
Gio Lopez run for 4 yds to the USA 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:16
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+12
9.4%
Kentrel Bullock run for 12 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:29
1ST & 10
50
+1
8.0%
Kentrel Bullock run for 1 yd to the UL 49Similar
Q4 10:48
2ND & 9
OPP 49
-5
7.3%
South Alabama Penalty, False Start (TEAM) to the USA 46Similar
Q4 10:25
2ND & 14
OWN 46
-1
7.2%
Kentrel Bullock run for a loss of 1 yard to the USA 45Similar
Q4 9:42
3RD & 15
OWN 45
0
7.2%
Gio Lopez pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:33
4TH & 15
OWN 45
0
7.7%
Aleksi Pulkkinen punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Jacob Bernard at the UL 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 18TD
3 plays · 82 yds · 1:028% → 22%
Q4 9:30
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+13
8.1%
Chandler Fields pass complete to Harvey Broussard for 13 yds to the UL 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:04
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+3
8.1%
Chandler Fields run for 3 yds to the UL 34Similar
Q4 8:28
2ND & 7
OWN 34
+66
21.8%
Chandler Fields pass complete to Dre'lyn Washington for 66 yds for a TD (Kenneth Almendares KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 19INT
7 plays · 35 yds · 2:5382% → 91%
Q4 8:28
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
18.1%
Gio Lopez pass complete to Jamaal Pritchett for a loss of 5 yards to the USA 20Similar
Q4 7:45
2ND & 15
OWN 20
+11
15.9%
Gio Lopez pass complete to DJ Thomas-Jones for 11 yds to the USA 31Similar
Q4 7:10
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+14
12.7%
Gio Lopez pass complete to Jamaal Pritchett for 14 yds to the USA 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:42
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+15
10.9%
Gio Lopez pass complete to Jeremiah Webb for 15 yds to the UL 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:15
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
9.5%
Fluff Bothwell run for no gain to the UL 40Similar
Q4 5:39
2ND & 10
OPP 40
0
9.1%
Gio Lopez pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:35
3RD & 10
OPP 40
0
9.5%
Gio Lopez pass intercepted Kody Jackson return for no gain to the UL 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 20TD
16 plays · 86 yds · 4:1415% → 38%
Q4 5:30
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+13
15.1%
Chandler Fields run for 13 yds to the UL 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:04
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+11
14.9%
Chandler Fields pass complete to Lance LeGendre for 11 yds to the UL 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:43
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+15
16.0%
Chandler Fields pass complete to Harvey Broussard for 15 yds to the USA 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:15
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+3
18.7%
Chandler Fields pass complete to Terrance Carter for 3 yds to the USA 44Similar
Q4 3:49
2ND & 7
OPP 44
+6
18.7%
Chandler Fields run for 6 yds to the USA 38Similar
Q4 3:16
3RD & 1
OPP 38
+5
17.7%
(03:16) FIELDS, Chandler pass to the right incomplete intended for BERNARD, Jacob thrown to the USA32, clock 03:12. PENALTY USA Offsides on DURGAN, Jalyn enforced 5 yards from the USA38 to the USA33 and results in a 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 3:12
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
20.0%
Chandler Fields pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:05
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+4
19.5%
Chandler Fields pass complete to Caden Jensen for 4 yds to the USA 29Similar
Q4 2:30
3RD & 6
OPP 29
+6
13.1%
Chandler Fields pass complete to Terrance Carter for 6 yds to the USA 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:04
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+10
14.6%
Chandler Fields pass complete to Lance LeGendre for 10 yds to the USA 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:58
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+11
15.6%
(01:58) FIELDS, Chandler pass to the left incomplete intended for CARTER, Terrance thrown to the USA0, clock 01:53. PENALTY USA Pass Interference on WEBB JR., Lardarius enforced 11 yards to the USA2 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 1:50
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
13.8%
Bill Davis run for 1 yd to the USA 1Similar
Q4 1:27
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
-1
13.6%
Bill Davis run for a loss of 1 yard to the USA 2Similar
Q4 1:16
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
38.2%
Chandler Fields run for 2 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 21END OF GAME
2 plays · -4 yds · 0:2387% → 88%
Q4 1:16
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-2
13.2%
[NHSG] Kneel down by TEAM at UL45 (team loss of 2), clock 01:16.Similar
Q4 0:53
2ND & 12
OPP 45
-2
12.3%
(00:53) [NHSG] Kneel down by TEAM at UL47 (team loss of 2), clock 00:48.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 1:16
Chandler Fields run for 2 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)
+31.2
TD · Q2 6:18
Kentrel Bullock run for 2 yds for a TD (Laith Marjan KICK)
-15.3
TD · Q4 8:28
Chandler Fields pass complete to Dre'lyn Washington for 66 yds for a TD (Kenneth Almendares KICK)
+13.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com