Colorado

Profile vs. FBS, 2024

Farther out is better on every spoke. Dashed ring: the FBS median.

• EPA per play

  Expected points added on an average snap: how much each play moved the scoring odds.
  Offense+0.1975th
  Defense0.0089th
• Success rate

  Share of snaps that stayed on schedule: half the yards needed on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of them on 3rd or 4th.
  Offense44.5%65th
  Defense38.4%80th
• Explosiveness

  Average EPA on the successful snaps: how big the good plays were.
  Offense+1.3174th
  Defense+1.2752nd
• Rushing EPA

  EPA per designed run.
  Offense+0.0223rd
  Defense+0.0274th
• Passing EPA

  EPA per pass play.
  Offense+0.2880th
  Defense−0.0192nd
• Standard downs

  Success rate on downs where either a run or a pass makes sense, like 1st and 10 or 3rd and 2.
  Offense49.2%62nd
  Defense43.2%83rd
• Passing downs

  Success rate on downs that all but force a pass, like 2nd and 8 or longer, or 3rd and 5 or longer.
  Offense34.8%80th
  Defense29.5%65th
• Line yards

  Rushing yards per carry credited to the offensive line, weighting the first few yards most.
  Offense2.7617th
  Defense2.8765th
• Stuff rate

  Share of runs stopped at or behind the line of scrimmage.
  Offense20.4%22nd
  Defense18.3%61st
• Havoc

  Share of snaps with a tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception or pass breakup.
  Offense17.8%26th
  Defense20.1%92nd

Percentiles among the 134 FBS teams this season, where higher is better for the offense and the defense alike (a defense's numbers are what it allowed). The line in each bar is the FBS median. Garbage time excluded. Source: CollegeFootballData.

Drives vs. expectation, 2024

Every snap has an expected-points value: what a drive from that spot, down and distance is worth on average. A drive over expected beat its starting spot; defense counts what Colorado allowed, so lower is better. The adjusted number fits every team against the opponents it actually played, so it leans toward average early in a season. Ranks are among FBS teams.

Game by game

1. W
   NDSU
2. L
   NEB
3. W
   CSU
4. W
   BAY
5. W
   UCF
6. L
   KSU
7. W
   ARIZ
8. W
   CIN
9. W
   TTU
10. W
    UTAH
11. L
    KU
12. W
    OKST
13. L
    BYU

Bars above the line: better than expected for Colorado.

Players, 2024

1. Shedeur SandersQB462 plays · +0.277 pts/play · 8th of 232 QBs
   2.39WAR1.57 to 3.14
2. Travis HunterWR81 plays · +0.253 pts/play · 3rd of 452 WRs
   0.38WAR0.17 to 0.60
3. LaJohntay WesterWR60 plays · +0.169 pts/play · 46th of 452 WRs
   0.19WAR0.05 to 0.34
4. Isaiah AugustaveRB82 plays · +0.109 pts/play · 176th of 373 RBs
   0.17WAR0.12 to 0.21
5. Will SheppardWR46 plays · +0.148 pts/play · 107th of 452 WRs
   0.13WAR0.00 to 0.26
6. Dallan HaydenRB67 plays · +0.096 pts/play · 220th of 373 RBs
   0.12WAR0.07 to 0.17
7. Alejandro MataPK10 plays · +0.289 pts/play · 91st of 114 kickers
   0.05WAR0.03 to 0.08
8. Jimmy Horn Jr.WR31 plays · +0.041 pts/play · 315th of 452 WRs
   0.02WAR−0.06 to 0.11

By position group, against FBS

Linemen and defenders are valued as units, in points per game against the median FBS unit, because play-by-play doesn't say who was on the field. Players are valued against a replacement-level backup, so the two aren't added together.

Wins above replacement credits each play's expected points to the players involved, adjusted for the opponent, and compares Colorado's players with a typical backup; 53 points make a win. Only snaps while the game was in doubt count, so a starter on a team that blows opponents out plays fewer of them: read value per play beside WAR. The line under each player (or the range on a phone) is the 90% interval. Ranks are among FBS teams and players. How this works

What it had and what it did, 2024

• Roster talent

  247Sports' talent composite: the recruiting ratings of every player on the roster, transfers included.
  74974931st of 131Roster talent: 749, 31st of 131 in FBS
• Recruiting

  Average 247Sports class score over this season's class and the three before it.
  18618656th of 131Recruiting: 186, 56th of 131 in FBS
• Returning production

  Share of last season's production (expected points added) by players still on the roster.
  67%67%25th of 130Returning production: 67%, 25th of 130 in FBS
• SP+ rating

  The result: Bill Connelly's opponent-adjusted rating, points per game better than an average FBS team.
  +8.1+8.138th of 131SP+ rating: +8.1, 38th of 131 in FBS

Ranks and bars among the 131 FBS teams with a talent rating this season, best first; the line in each bar is the FBS median.

Talent conversion

Conversion by season

Fourth-down calls vs. the numbers, 2024

Each real fourth down is valued three ways (go for it, kick, punt) from the score, clock and field position before the snap, using league-wide odds rather than Colorado's own. A call that differs gives up the gap to the best option; gaps under one point are close calls, and the 3 clear-cut ones account for 0.04 of the 0.09 expected wins. The model sees the situation, not the injury report, so a call it disagrees with can still be right. Ranks are among FBS teams; 1st gave up the least.

Costliest calls against the numbers

1. vs CINQ3 0:24 4th & 1 at CIN 39, up 17Punted; the numbers favored going for it−1.6 pts
2. vs CINQ3 11:53 4th & 3 at CIN 44, up 10Punted; the numbers favored going for it−1.2 pts
3. at TTUQ4 9:46 4th & 2 at TTU 15, up 11Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it−1.0 pts
4. at UCFQ2 0:42 4th & 1 at UCF 18, up 7Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.9 pts
5. at ARIZQ3 5:58 4th & 2 at ARIZ 9, up 21Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.8 pts
6. vs KSUQ2 13:17 4th & 1 at COLO 45, tiedPunted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.7 pts
7. vs CINQ4 7:30 4th & 1 at COLO 34, up 14Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.7 pts
8. at KUQ4 6:22 4th & 22 at KU 29, down 16Went for it; the numbers favored a field goal (close call)−0.7 pts

Record vs. expectation, 2024

26th of 134 FBS teams at beating the model's pregame expectations

Expected wins adds up Colorado's chance of winning each game as the model saw it at kickoff - a 70% favorite counts 0.7.

1. W

   NDSU
2. L

   NEB
3. W

   CSU
4. W

   BAY
5. W

   UCF
6. L

   KSU
7. W

   ARIZ
8. W

   CIN
9. W

   TTU
10. W

    UTAH
11. L

    KU
12. W

    OKST
13. L

    BYU

What moved it, 2024

Every game starts at Colorado's pregame chance; everything after that is the field. The model's own breakdown of each game's final play splits the on-field part by what drove it, and the parts add up exactly. How it works →

• Scoreboard+0.75
• Possession & field position−0.01
• Clock+0.19
• Timeouts−0.21
• Other+0.03
• Less the pregame edge, counted before kickoff−0.25

Game by game

• NDSUW 31-26 vs NDSU79% → 90%Before kickoff +29 · On the field +11: Scoreboard +19, Timeouts +1
• NEBL 10-28 at NEB29% → 0%Before kickoff −21 · On the field −29: Scoreboard −31
• CSUW 28-9 at CSU71% → 98%Before kickoff +21 · On the field +28: Scoreboard +38, Clock +1
• BAYW 38-31 vs BAY57% → 13%Before kickoff +7 · On the field −44: Scoreboard −50, Clock +17
• UCFW 48-21 at UCF21% → 100%Before kickoff −29 · On the field +78: Scoreboard +68, Clock +2
• KSUL 28-31 vs KSU44% → 5%Before kickoff −6 · On the field −39: Scoreboard −45, Clock −3
• ARIZW 34-7 at ARIZ45% → 100%Before kickoff −5 · On the field +55: Scoreboard +55, Clock +1
• CINW 34-23 vs CIN69% → 99%Before kickoff +19 · On the field +30: Scoreboard +32, Possession & field position +1
• TTUW 41-27 at TTU61% → 98%Before kickoff +11 · On the field +38: Scoreboard +48, Timeouts −2
• UTAHW 49-24 vs UTAH84% → 100%Before kickoff +34 · On the field +16: Scoreboard +21, Timeouts −1
• KUL 21-37 at KU54% → 1%Before kickoff +4 · On the field −53: Scoreboard −43, Timeouts −2
• OKSTW 52-0 vs OKST84% → 100%Before kickoff +34 · On the field +16: Scoreboard +19, Possession & field position −1
• BYUL 14-36 vs BYU58% → 0%Before kickoff +8 · On the field −58: Scoreboard −57, Clock −3

Points of win probability, from Colorado's side.

Closest call

BAY 31-38 COLO (2024) - Colorado dropped to a 3.1% win probability before pulling it out.