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Win probability · COLO
modelCOLO aheadBYU aheadconfidence bandkey playCOLO scoreBYU score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 5:32 · Mark Vassett punt for 48 yds , Parker Kingston returns for 64 yds for a TD (Will Ferrin KICK)
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorPregame priorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 7:10: LJ Martin run for 1 yd for a TD (Will Ferrin KICK) — BYU win probability +3.0 pts (now 46%) (top driver: BYU has the ball).
- FG · Q2 0:00: Will Ferrin 54 yd FG GOOD — BYU win probability +2.2 pts (now 81%) (top driver: BYU has the ball).
- TD · Q3 8:03: Sione I Moa run for 13 yds for a TD (Will Ferrin KICK) — BYU win probability +6.1 pts (now 97%) (top driver: BYU has the ball).
- TD · Q3 6:14: Shedeur Sanders pass complete to Travis Hunter for 43 yds for a TD (Alejandro Mata KICK) — COLO win probability +9.5 pts (now 13%) (top driver: COLO has the ball).
- TD · Q4 10:27: LJ Martin run for 9 yds for a TD (Jake Retzlaff intercepted) — BYU win probability +2.0 pts (now 100%) (top driver: BYU has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
COLO made the numbers' call on 6 of 6BYU made the numbers' call on 3 of 4
- Q1 13:58BYU 4th & 9 at BYU 32, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 40.8% before the snapGo for it40.8%−0.131% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call40.9%average punt
- Q1 10:56COLO 4th & 1 at BYU 48, tiedAgrees with the numbersWent for it · 59.4% before the snapGo for itTheir call59.4%70% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt59.2%−0.2average punt
- Q1 4:48COLO 4th & 23 at COLO 12, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 54.5% before the snapGo for it53.9%−1.16% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call54.9%average punt
- Q1 2:19BYU 4th & 14 at COLO 33, up 7Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 45.9% before the snapGo for it45.3%−0.619% to convertField goalTheir call45.9%49% to makePunt45.5%−0.5average punt
- Q2 11:12COLO 4th & 26 at BYU 30, down 10Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 46.7% before the snapGo for it45.0%−1.37% to convertField goalTheir call46.4%56% to makePunt45.6%−0.7average punt
- Q2 5:32COLO 4th & 23 at COLO 16, down 10Agrees with the numbersPunted · 42.0% before the snapGo for it39.7%−2.46% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call42.1%average punt
- Q2 3:05COLO 4th & 7 at COLO 34, down 17Agrees with the numbersPunted · 32.1% before the snapGo for it31.7%−0.637% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call32.2%average punt
- Q2 0:00BYU 4th & 4 at COLO 36, up 17Numbers favored go for it by 1.9 ptsKicked a field goal · 75.1% before the snapGo for it75.9%48% to convertField goalTheir call74.1%−1.942% to makePunt74.2%−1.8average punt
- Q4 12:59COLO 4th & 5 at COLO 22, down 20Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.0% before the snapGo for it3.8%−0.740% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call4.5%average punt
- Q4 5:28BYU 4th & 11 at COLO 13, up 26Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.6% before the snapGo for it99.4%−0.123% to convertField goalTheir call99.5%85% to makePunt99.0%−0.6average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
COLO made the numbers' call on 1 of 2BYU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
- Q1 7:10BYU Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call42.8%97% to makeGo for two42.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 8:03BYU Touchdown, up 26 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call98.0%97% to makeGo for two97.9%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 6:14COLO Touchdown, down 21 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call7.5%97% to makeGo for two7.5%−0.145% to convert
- Q4 2:17COLO Touchdown, down 23 before the tryClose callKicked · madeKickTheir call0.8%−<0.197% to makeGo for two0.8%45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartBYUDrive 1PUNT6 plays · 1 yds · 0:5142% → 42%
Q1 13:58
4TH & 9
OWN 32
0
58.5%
Sam Vander Haar punt for 44 yds, fair catch by LaJohntay Wester at the COLO 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 2DOWNS6 plays · 28 yds · 2:4759% → 59%
Q1 13:43
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+2
58.5%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to Jimmy Horn Jr. for 2 yds to the COLO 26Similar
Q1 13:15
2ND & 8
OWN 26
+17
58.5%
Shedeur Sanders run for 7 yds to the COLO 33 for a 1ST down BYU Penalty, Defensive Holding (10 Yards) to the COLO 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:35
3RD & 2
OPP 49
+1
58.8%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to Jimmy Horn Jr. for 1 yd to the BYU 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 3TD7 plays · 52 yds · 3:3242% → 46%
Q1 10:42
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-10
58.1%
Martin, LJ rush for 10 yards to the COLO42, PENALTY BYU holding 10 yards to the BYU38, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 9:45
2ND & 16
OWN 42
+11
58.4%
Jake Retzlaff pass complete to Chase Roberts for 11 yds to the COLO 47Similar
Q1 8:35
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+28
57.7%
Jake Retzlaff pass complete to LJ Martin for 28 yds to the COLO 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 4PUNT7 plays · -13 yds · 2:2256% → 54%
Q1 6:54
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+5
55.4%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to LaJohntay Wester for 5 yds to the COLO 25Similar
Q1 6:13
2ND & 15
OWN 20
-10
55.1%
Shedeur Sanders sacked by Harrison Taggart for a loss of 10 yards to the COLO 10Similar
Q1 5:38
3RD & 25
OWN 10
+2
54.5%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to Travis Hunter for 2 yds to the COLO 12Similar
Q1 4:48
4TH & 23
OWN 12
+14
53.9%
Mark Vassett punt for 43 yds , Parker Kingston returns for 14 yds to the COLO 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 5FG7 plays · 8 yds · 2:2247% → 47%
Q1 3:49
3RD & 4
OPP 35
+6
52.9%
Jake Retzlaff pass complete to Keelan Marion for 6 yds to the COLO 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:02
2ND & 10
OPP 29
-4
52.4%
Jake Retzlaff sacked by Chidozie Nwankwo for a loss of 4 yards to the COLO 33 Jake Retzlaff fumbled, forced by Chidozie Nwankwo, recovered by BYU Jake Retzlaff , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 6INT5 plays · 17 yds · 2:0249% → 50%
Q1 0:05
2ND & 6
OPP 37
-25
50.0%
Gerry Bohanon pass intercepted DJ McKinney return for 25 yds to the COLO 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 7MISSED FG9 plays · 40 yds · 3:4850% → 46%
Q2 14:53
3RD & 7
OWN 33
-5
49.8%
Sanders, Shedeur rush for 12 yards to the COLO45, PENALTY COLO illegal formation 5 yards to the COLO28, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 14:14
3RD & 12
OWN 28
+58
49.0%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to Travis Hunter for 58 yds to the BYU 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:57
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+5
51.3%
Sanders, Shedeur pass complete to Wester, LaJohntay for loss of 1 yard to the BYU15, PENALTY BYU substitution infraction 5 yards to the BYU9, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 12:40
2ND & 3
OPP 7
0
50.7%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to Drelon Miller for no gain to the BYU 7Similar
Q2 11:56
3RD & 3
OPP 7
-23
49.0%
Shedeur Sanders sacked by Logan Lutui for a loss of 23 yards to the BYU 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 8INT6 plays · 49 yds · 2:5452% → 56%
Q2 10:26
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-1
47.1%
Jake Retzlaff pass complete to Pokaiaua Haunga for a loss of 1 yard to the BYU 40Similar
Q2 9:17
3RD & 7
OWN 44
+20
46.9%
Jake Retzlaff pass complete to Ryner Swanson for 20 yds to the COLO 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:41
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+15
46.2%
Keelan Marion run for no gain to the COLO 36 for a 1ST down Colorado Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the COLO 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:11
1ST & 10
OPP 21
-9
44.1%
Jake Retzlaff pass intercepted Anquin Barnes Jr. return for 9 yds to the COLO 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 9PUNT RETURN TD5 plays · -13 yds · 2:2745% → 34%
COLODrive 10PUNT6 plays · 14 yds · 2:0434% → 32%
BYUDrive 11END OF HALF13 plays · 40 yds · 2:5471% → 81%
Q2 2:17
2ND & 7
OWN 27
+5
27.5%
Retzlaff, Jake pass pass intended for Roberts, Chase intercepted by Sanders, Shilo at the COLO35, Sanders, Shilo return 12 yards to the COLO47, PENALTY COLO offside 5 yards to the BYU32, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 1:09
3RD & 8
OWN 38
+10
24.2%
Retzlaff, Jake pass incomplete to Moa, Sione I, PENALTY COLO holding 10 yards to the BYU48, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN BYU.Similar
Q2 1:03
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+10
23.2%
Jake Retzlaff pass complete to Ryner Swanson for 10 yds to the COLO 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:51
2ND & 10
OPP 42
-6
22.8%
Jake Retzlaff sacked by Taje McCoy for a loss of 6 yards to the COLO 48Similar
Q2 0:12
3RD & 16
OPP 48
+12
23.5%
Jake Retzlaff pass complete to Mata'ava Ta'ase for 12 yds to the COLO 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 12INT5 plays · 11 yds · 1:4824% → 22%
Q3 13:01
2ND & 14
OWN 28
0
22.0%
Shedeur Sanders pass intercepted Evan Johnson return for no gain to the BYU 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 13TD9 plays · 55 yds · 4:4885% → 97%
COLODrive 14TD5 plays · 63 yds · 1:364% → 13%
Q3 7:50
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+16
3.7%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to Jimmy Horn Jr. for 1 yd to the BYU 38 for a 1ST down BYU Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (15 Yards) to the BYU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:32
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+4
3.9%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to Will Sheppard for 4 yds to the BYU 43Similar
Q3 6:14
3RD & 6
OPP 43
+43
13.4%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to Travis Hunter for 43 yds for a TD (Alejandro Mata KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 15INT12 plays · 58 yds · 6:0991% → 96%
COLODrive 16PUNT4 plays · 5 yds · 1:455% → 4%
BYUDrive 17TD5 plays · 42 yds · 2:2197% → 100%
Q4 12:48
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+12
3.1%
Jake Retzlaff pass complete to Sione I Moa for 12 yds to the COLO 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 18INT3 plays · 3 yds · 0:351% → 1%
BYUDrive 19FG7 plays · 18 yds · 4:02100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 20TD8 plays · 82 yds · 3:000% → 1%
Q4 5:17
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+19
0.2%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to LaJohntay Wester for 19 yds to the COLO 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:28
2ND & 10
OWN 37
-2
0.1%
Shedeur Sanders sacked by Siale Esera for a loss of 2 yards to the COLO 35Similar
Q4 3:34
3RD & 12
OWN 35
+38
0.1%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to Dallan Hayden for 38 yds to the BYU 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:11
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+25
0.2%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to LaJohntay Wester for 25 yds to the BYU 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:17
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
1.2%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to Sav'ell Smalls for 2 yds for a TD (Alejandro Mata KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 21END OF GAME5 plays · 11 yds · 1:39100% → 100%
Q4 2:00
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+17
0.4%
Pokaiaua Haunga run for 2 yds to the COLO 42 for a 1ST down Colorado Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (15 Yards) to the COLO 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 6:14
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to Travis Hunter for 43 yds for a TD (Alejandro Mata KICK)
+9.5
TD · Q3 8:03
Sione I Moa run for 13 yds for a TD (Will Ferrin KICK)
-6.1
TD · Q1 7:10
LJ Martin run for 1 yd for a TD (Will Ferrin KICK)
-3