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COLO

Colorado 45 at TCU 42

TCU
2023 · Week 1 · Sep 2, 2023 · Amon G. Carter Stadium
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Win probability · TCU
modelTCU aheadCOLO aheadconfidence bandkey playTCU scoreCOLO score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:00 · S. Sanders takes a knee
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+40.5+20.30−20.3−40.5Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 0:27: Dylan Edwards run for 7 yds for a TD (Jace Feely KICK) — COLO win probability +23.7 pts (now 48%) (top driver: COLO has the ball).
  2. TD · Q4 10:49: Chandler Morris run for 19 yds for a TD (Griffin Kell KICK) — TCU win probability +17.4 pts (now 84%) (top driver: TCU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 7:36: Shedeur Sanders pass complete to Jimmy Horn Jr. for 26 yds for a TD (Jace Feely KICK) — COLO win probability +39.2 pts (now 65%) (top driver: COLO has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 7:00: Trey Sanders run for 1 yd for a TD (Griffin Kell KICK) — TCU win probability +31.2 pts (now 86%) (top driver: TCU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 4:25: Shedeur Sanders pass complete to Dylan Edwards for 46 yds for a TD (Jace Feely KICK) — COLO win probability +41.2 pts (now 70%) (top driver: COLO has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TCU made the numbers' call on 3 of 5COLO made the numbers' call on 6 of 6
  1. Q1 14:04TCU 4th & 3 at TCU 25, tied
    Close callPunted · 89.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.8%
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    89.8%−<0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 6:22COLO 4th & 2 at TCU 42, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 14.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    14.5%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    14.1%−0.3
    30% to make
    Punt
    14.2%−0.2
    average punt
  3. Q1 1:14COLO 4th & 7 at TCU 31, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 17.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.8%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    17.8%
    54% to make
    Punt
    17.5%−0.4
    average punt
  4. Q2 7:07TCU 4th & 9 at TCU 41, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 73.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.1%−1.0
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    74.1%
    average punt
  5. Q2 4:42COLO 4th & 21 at COLO 18, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.9%−2.5
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.4%
    average punt
  6. Q2 3:16TCU 4th & 10 at COLO 25, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 70.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.8%−0.7
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    70.5%
    66% to make
    Punt
    65.7%−4.8
    average punt
  7. Q3 9:11COLO 4th & 18 at TCU 44, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 32.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.8%−3.0
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    31.8%−1.9
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    33.8%
    average punt
  8. Q3 4:33COLO 4th & 6 at COLO 7, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 35.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.1%−1.8
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    35.9%
    average punt
  9. Q4 15:00TCU 4th & 1 at COLO 36, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 61.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    61.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    56.6%−5.2
    42% to make
    Punt
    55.7%−6.1
    average punt
  10. Q4 4:25COLO 4th & 2 at TCU 46, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 26.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    23.5%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    18.0%−5.5
    23% to make
    Punt
    17.2%−6.2
    average punt
  11. Q4 0:55TCU 4th & 9 at COLO 43, down 3
    Numbers favored field goal by 2.4 ptsWent for it · 27.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    21.4%−2.4
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    23.8%
    28% to make
    Punt
    15.1%−8.7
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TCU made the numbers' call on 5 of 6COLO made the numbers' call on 6 of 6
  1. Q1 8:58COLO Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    12.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    12.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 13:57TCU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    83.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    83.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 9:28COLO Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    22.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    22.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 1:53TCU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    76.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    76.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 14:24COLO Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    38.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    38.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 13:29TCU Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    71.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    71.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 2:32TCU Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    78.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    78.4%−0.2
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 0:27COLO Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    40.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    40.6%−0.3
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 10:49TCU Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    76.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    76.5%−0.3
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 7:36COLO Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    50.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    49.3%−1.5
    45% to convert
  11. Q4 7:00TCU Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    74.6%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    74.8%
    45% to convert
  12. Q4 4:25COLO Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    58.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    57.9%−1.0
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
TCUDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:4891% → 90%
Q1 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+1
90.5%
Emani Bailey run for 1 yd to the TCU 19Similar
Q1 14:52
2ND & 9
OWN 19
+6
90.5%
Chandler Morris pass complete to Savion Williams for 6 yds to the TCU 25Similar
Q1 14:52
3RD & 3
OWN 25
0
90.5%
Chandler Morris pass incomplete to JP RichardsonSimilar
Q1 14:04
4TH & 3
OWN 25
0
90.3%
Jordy Sandy punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Jimmy Horn Jr. at the COLO 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 2TD
14 plays · 73 yds · 5:0610% → 13%
Q1 14:04
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+7
90.3%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to Dylan Edwards for 7 yds to the COLO 34Similar
Q1 14:04
2ND & 3
OWN 34
+21
90.3%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to Travis Hunter for 6 yds to the TCU 40 for a 1ST down TCU Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (Avery Helm) to the TCU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:04
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+2
90.3%
Dylan Edwards run for 2 yds to the TCU 43Similar
Q1 14:04
2ND & 8
OPP 43
0
90.3%
Shedeur Sanders pass incomplete to Travis HunterSimilar
Q1 14:04
3RD & 8
OPP 43
+8
90.3%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to Michael Harrison for 8 yds to the TCU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:04
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+5
90.2%
No Huddle-Shotgun Sanders,Shedeur rush middle for 0 yards to the TCU35 (Ibukun-Okeyode,Micheal; Obiazor,Namdi) PENALTY TCU Illegal Substitution (Glover,Vernon) 5 yards from TCU35 to TCU30. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 14:04
1ST & 5
OPP 30
+3
90.2%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to Dylan Edwards for 3 yds to the TCU 27Similar
Q1 14:04
2ND & 2
OPP 27
+4
90.2%
Anthony Hankerson run for 4 yds to the TCU 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:04
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+9
90.2%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to Travis Hunter for 9 yds to the TCU 14Similar
Q1 14:04
2ND & 1
OPP 14
0
90.2%
Shedeur Sanders pass incomplete to Xavier WeaverSimilar
Q1 14:04
3RD & 1
OPP 14
+8
90.3%
Anthony Hankerson run for 8 yds to the TCU 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:04
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+4
90.2%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to Jimmy Horn Jr. for 4 yds to the TCU 2Similar
Q1 14:04
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
90.2%
Anthony Hankerson run for 2 yds to the TCU 4Similar
Q1 8:58
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
87.5%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to Dylan Edwards for 4 yds for a TD (Alejandro Mata KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 3INT
10 plays · 61 yds · 2:3688% → 87%
Q1 8:58
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
87.8%
Chandler Morris pass complete to Savion Williams for no gain to the TCU 25Similar
Q1 8:58
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+14
87.8%
Emani Bailey run for 14 yds to the TCU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:58
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
87.9%
Chandler Morris pass incomplete to Dylan WrightSimilar
Q1 8:58
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+14
87.9%
Chandler Morris pass complete to Jared Wiley for 14 yds to the COLO 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:58
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+16
88.1%
Chandler Morris pass complete to JoJo Earle for 16 yds to the COLO 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:58
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+18
88.2%
Chandler Morris pass complete to Warren Thompson for 18 yds to the COLO 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:58
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+4
88.2%
Emani Bailey run for 4 yds to the COLO 9Similar
Q1 8:58
2ND & 6
OPP 9
-5
88.2%
PENALTY TCU False Start (Coleman,Brandon) 5 yards from CU09 to CU14. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 6:22
2ND & 11
OPP 14
0
87.1%
Chandler Morris pass intercepted, touchback.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 4MISSED FG
12 plays · 49 yds · 5:0814% → 17%
Q1 6:22
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+11
86.3%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to Jimmy Horn Jr. for 11 yds to the COLO 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:22
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+2
86.2%
Anthony Hankerson run for 2 yds to the COLO 33Similar
Q1 6:22
2ND & 8
OWN 33
+5
86.2%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to Xavier Weaver for 5 yds to the COLO 38Similar
Q1 6:22
3RD & 3
OWN 38
+12
86.1%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to Xavier Weaver for 12 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:22
1ST & 10
50
0
85.9%
Shedeur Sanders pass incomplete to Travis HunterSimilar
Q1 6:22
2ND & 10
50
+8
85.9%
Sy'veon Wilkerson run for 8 yds to the TCU 42Similar
Q1 6:22
3RD & 2
OPP 42
0
86.0%
Sy'veon Wilkerson run for no gain to the TCU 42Similar
Q1 6:22
4TH & 2
OPP 42
+8
86.2%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to Jimmy Horn Jr. for 8 yds to the TCU 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:22
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+3
85.9%
Sy'veon Wilkerson run for 3 yds to the TCU 31Similar
Q1 6:22
2ND & 7
OPP 31
+4
85.9%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to Tar'Varish Dawson for 4 yds to the TCU 27Similar
Q1 6:22
3RD & 3
OPP 27
-4
86.0%
Shedeur Sanders sacked by Jamoi Hodge for a loss of 4 yards to the TCU 31Similar
Q1 1:14
4TH & 7
OPP 31
+49
82.7%
Jace Feely 49 yd FG BLOCKED blocked by Namdi ObiazorSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 5TD
9 plays · 52 yds · 2:1784% → 87%
Q1 1:14
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-5
83.8%
No Huddle-Shotgun Morris,Chandler pass incomplete short left to Richardson,JP PENALTY TCU Illegal Touch-Pass (Lanz,John) 5 yards from TCU48 to TCU43. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 1:14
2ND & 15
OWN 43
+17
83.3%
Chandler Morris pass complete to JP Richardson for 17 yds to the COLO 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:14
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+3
84.0%
Trey Sanders run for 3 yds to the COLO 37Similar
Q1 1:14
2ND & 7
OPP 37
0
84.0%
Trey Sanders run for no gain to the COLO 37Similar
Q1 0:00
3RD & 7
OPP 37
+21
83.2%
Chandler Morris pass complete to Dylan Wright for 21 yds to the COLO 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+4
83.7%
Emani Bailey run for 4 yds to the COLO 12 Emani Bailey fumbled, recovered by TCU John LanzSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 12
+5
83.7%
Trey Sanders run for 5 yds to the COLO 7Similar
Q2 13:57
3RD & 1
OPP 7
+7
86.5%
Trey Sanders run for 7 yds for a TD (Griffin Kell KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 6TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 4:2915% → 24%
Q2 13:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
85.0%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to Travis Hunter for 3 yds to the COLO 28Similar
Q2 13:57
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+8
84.9%
Dylan Edwards run for 8 yds to the COLO 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:57
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
84.7%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to Travis Hunter for 2 yds to the COLO 38Similar
Q2 13:57
2ND & 8
OWN 38
+6
84.5%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to Jimmy Horn Jr. for 6 yds to the COLO 44Similar
Q2 13:57
3RD & 2
OWN 44
+9
84.3%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to Travis Hunter for 9 yds to the TCU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:57
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+2
84.1%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to Travis Hunter for 2 yds to the TCU 45Similar
Q2 13:57
2ND & 8
OPP 45
+32
84.1%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to Xavier Weaver for 32 yds to the TCU 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:57
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+5
83.8%
Anthony Hankerson run for 5 yds to the TCU 8Similar
Q2 13:57
2ND & 5
OPP 8
0
83.8%
Shedeur Sanders run for no gain to the TCU 8Similar
Q2 9:34
3RD & 5
OPP 8
+8
81.7%
No Huddle-Shotgun Sanders,Shedeur pass incomplete short left to Hunter,Travis PENALTY TCU Pass Interference (Newton,Josh) 6 yards from TCU08 to TCU02, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY. The previous play is under review. The ruling on the field has been overturned. The receiver was out of bounds (OVERTURNED PLAY: No Huddle-Shotgun #2 S.Sanders pass complete short left to #12 T.Hunter for 8 yards to the TCU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 09:34, 1ST DOWN, PENALTY).Similar
Q2 9:28
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
76.4%
Sy'veon Wilkerson run for 2 yds for a TD (Jace Feely KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 7PUNT
8 plays · 12 yds · 2:1278% → 75%
Q2 9:19
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+9
78.4%
Emani Bailey run for 9 yds to the TCU 38Similar
Q2 9:19
2ND & 1
OWN 38
+2
79.4%
Emani Bailey run for 2 yds to the TCU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:19
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+6
79.1%
Chandler Morris pass complete to Jared Wiley for 6 yds to the TCU 46Similar
Q2 9:19
2ND & 4
OWN 46
-5
79.4%
PENALTY TCU False Start (Nichols,Mike) 5 yards from TCU46 to TCU41. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 9:19
2ND & 9
OWN 41
0
78.7%
Chandler Morris run for no gain to the TCU 41Similar
Q2 9:19
3RD & 9
OWN 41
0
78.2%
Chandler Morris pass incomplete to Warren ThompsonSimilar
Q2 7:07
4TH & 9
OWN 41
+2
75.0%
Jordy Sandy punt for 47 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the COLO 14 , Jimmy Horn Jr. returns for 2 yds to the COLO 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 8PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 2:2525% → 26%
Q2 7:07
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+15
75.2%
No Huddle-Shotgun Sanders,Shedeur pass incomplete short right to Weaver,Xavier PENALTY TCU Roughing The Passer (Hodge,Jamoi) 15 yards from CU14 to CU29, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 7:07
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+1
74.7%
Anthony Hankerson run for 1 yd to the COLO 28Similar
Q2 7:07
2ND & 11
OWN 28
-8
75.1%
Shedeur Sanders sacked by Johnny Hodges for a loss of 8 yards to the COLO 20Similar
Q2 7:07
3RD & 24
OWN 15
+3
75.7%
Anthony Hankerson run for 3 yds to the COLO 18Similar
Q2 4:42
4TH & 21
OWN 18
0
74.0%
Mark Vassett punt for 34 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the TCU 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 9MISSED FG
7 plays · 27 yds · 1:2675% → 73%
Q2 4:42
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+9
75.0%
Chandler Morris run for 9 yds to the COLO 43Similar
Q2 4:42
2ND & 1
OPP 43
+3
75.6%
Trey Sanders run for 3 yds to the COLO 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:42
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+15
75.5%
Chandler Morris pass complete to JP Richardson for 15 yds to the COLO 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:42
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
76.5%
Chandler Morris pass incomplete to Jared WileySimilar
Q2 4:42
2ND & 10
OPP 25
0
76.4%
Chandler Morris pass incomplete to Jaylon RobinsonSimilar
Q2 4:42
3RD & 10
OPP 25
0
75.3%
Chandler Morris pass incomplete to Savion WilliamsSimilar
Q2 3:16
4TH & 10
OPP 25
+43
72.5%
Griffin Kell 43 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 10FUMBLE
2 plays · 6 yds · 0:1830% → 30%
Q2 3:16
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
70.1%
Shedeur Sanders pass incomplete to Javon AntonioSimilar
Q2 2:58
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+6
70.2%
Dylan Edwards run for 6 yds to the COLO 22 Dylan Edwards fumbled, recovered by TCU Millard BradfordSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 11TD
6 plays · 22 yds · 1:0575% → 83%
Q2 2:58
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+7
75.2%
Major Everhart run for 7 yds to the COLO 15Similar
Q2 2:58
3RD & 3
OPP 15
+11
74.1%
Chandler Morris pass complete to Major Everhart for 11 yds to the COLO 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:58
2ND & 3
OPP 15
0
75.2%
Chandler Morris run for no gain to the COLO 15Similar
Q2 2:58
2ND & 3
OPP 15
0
75.2%
PENALTY TCU UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct offsetting. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 2:58
2ND & 3
OPP 15
0
75.2%
TCU Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct ( Yards) to the TCU 0Similar
Q2 1:53
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
83.0%
Trey Sanders run for 4 yds for a TD (Griffin Kell KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 12FG
12 plays · 44 yds · 1:5322% → 31%
Q2 1:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
77.9%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to Jimmy Horn Jr. for 9 yds to the COLO 34Similar
Q2 1:53
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+7
76.7%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to Jimmy Horn Jr. for 7 yds to the COLO 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:53
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+1
76.3%
Anthony Hankerson run for 1 yd to the COLO 42Similar
Q2 1:53
2ND & 14
OWN 37
+20
77.9%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to Jimmy Horn Jr. for 20 yds to the TCU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:53
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
75.3%
Shedeur Sanders pass incomplete to Travis HunterSimilar
Q2 0:21
2ND & 10
OPP 43
0
74.6%
Shedeur Sanders pass incomplete to Jimmy Horn Jr.Similar
Q2 0:21
3RD & 10
OPP 43
+11
75.3%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to Travis Hunter for 11 yds to the TCU 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:21
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+1
73.4%
Anthony Hankerson run for 1 yd to the TCU 31Similar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 9
OPP 31
+49
69.5%
Jace Feely 49 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 13TD
4 plays · 75 yds · 0:3627% → 38%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+17
72.7%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to Xavier Weaver for 17 yds to the COLO 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:24
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+75
62.1%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to Dylan Edwards for 75 yds for a TD (Jace Feely KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 14TD
4 plays · 65 yds · 0:5563% → 78%
Q3 14:24
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+34
62.6%
Emani Bailey run for 34 yds to the COLO 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:24
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+10
66.3%
Chandler Morris pass complete to JP Richardson for 10 yds to the COLO 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:29
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+21
77.5%
Chandler Morris pass complete to Jared Wiley for 21 yds for a TD (Griffin Kell KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 15PUNT
11 plays · 31 yds · 4:1828% → 32%
Q3 13:29
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
72.1%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to Travis Hunter for 11 yds to the COLO 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:29
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+4
71.2%
Sy'veon Wilkerson run for 4 yds to the COLO 40Similar
Q3 13:29
2ND & 6
OWN 40
0
70.2%
Shedeur Sanders pass incomplete to Xavier WeaverSimilar
Q3 13:29
3RD & 6
OWN 40
+10
70.8%
Sy'veon Wilkerson run for 10 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:29
1ST & 10
50
+2
69.7%
Sy'veon Wilkerson run for 2 yds to the TCU 48Similar
Q3 13:29
2ND & 8
OPP 48
+12
69.8%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to Xavier Weaver for 12 yds to the TCU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:29
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+4
69.7%
Sy'veon Wilkerson run for 4 yds to the TCU 32Similar
Q3 13:29
2ND & 6
OPP 32
-11
68.8%
Shedeur Sanders sacked by Caleb Fox for a loss of 11 yards to the TCU 43Similar
Q3 13:29
3RD & 17
OPP 43
+1
71.5%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to Tar'Varish Dawson for 1 yd to the TCU 44Similar
Q3 9:11
4TH & 18
OPP 44
0
68.5%
Mark Vassett punt for 43 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the TCU 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 16INT
9 plays · 95 yds · 3:0669% → 71%
Q3 9:11
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+4
69.1%
Emani Bailey run for 4 yds to the TCU 5Similar
Q3 9:11
2ND & 6
OWN 5
-2
69.0%
PENALTY TCU False Start (Lanz,John) 2 yards from TCU05 to TCU03. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 9:11
2ND & 8
OWN 3
+74
69.0%
Emani Bailey run for 74 yds to the COLO 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:11
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+2
74.8%
Chandler Morris run for 2 yds to the COLO 21Similar
Q3 9:11
2ND & 8
OPP 21
+6
74.8%
Trey Sanders run for 6 yds to the COLO 15Similar
Q3 9:11
3RD & 2
OPP 15
+2
73.2%
Trey Sanders run for 2 yds to the COLO 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:11
1ST & 10
OPP 13
0
74.8%
Chandler Morris pass incomplete to Savion WilliamsSimilar
Q3 9:11
2ND & 10
OPP 13
+9
74.8%
Chandler Morris pass complete to Jared Wiley for 9 yds to the COLO 4Similar
Q3 6:05
3RD & 1
OPP 4
0
71.1%
Chandler Morris pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 17PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:3234% → 34%
Q3 6:05
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+4
65.6%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to Michael Harrison for 4 yds to the COLO 7Similar
Q3 6:05
2ND & 6
OWN 7
0
65.8%
Dylan Edwards run for no gain to the COLO 7Similar
Q3 6:05
3RD & 6
OWN 7
0
66.8%
Shedeur Sanders pass incomplete to Jimmy Horn Jr.Similar
Q3 4:33
4TH & 6
OWN 7
0
65.8%
Mark Vassett punt for 56 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 18TD
7 plays · 63 yds · 2:0167% → 83%
Q3 4:33
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+3
66.9%
Trey Sanders run for 3 yds to the TCU 40Similar
Q3 4:33
2ND & 7
OWN 40
0
68.9%
Chandler Morris pass incomplete to JP RichardsonSimilar
Q3 4:33
3RD & 7
OWN 40
-5
66.2%
PENALTY TCU False Start (Coleman,Brandon) 5 yards from TCU40 to TCU35. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 4:33
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+18
70.0%
Chandler Morris pass complete to Jack Bech for 18 yds to the COLO 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:33
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
71.8%
Chandler Morris pass incomplete to Jack BechSimilar
Q3 4:33
2ND & 10
OPP 24
+1
71.6%
Emani Bailey run for 1 yd to the COLO 23Similar
Q3 2:32
3RD & 9
OPP 23
+23
83.2%
Chandler Morris pass complete to Dylan Wright for 23 yds for a TD (Griffin Kell KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 19TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 2:0520% → 48%
Q3 2:32
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
80.3%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to Tar'Varish Dawson for 6 yds to the COLO 31Similar
Q3 2:32
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+11
79.2%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to Jimmy Horn Jr. for 11 yds to the COLO 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:32
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+44
78.7%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to Xavier Weaver for 44 yds to the TCU 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:32
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+7
75.7%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to Jimmy Horn Jr. for 7 yds to the TCU 7Similar
Q3 0:27
2ND & 3
OPP 7
+7
52.0%
Dylan Edwards run for 7 yds for a TD (Jace Feely KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 20TD
15 plays · 79 yds · 4:3161% → 84%
Q3 0:20
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
61.3%
Chandler Morris pass incomplete to Dylan WrightSimilar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 10
OWN 21
+8
60.8%
Chandler Morris pass complete to JP Richardson for 8 yds to the TCU 29Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 2
OWN 29
+14
60.5%
Savion Williams run for 14 yds to the TCU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
64.4%
Chandler Morris pass incomplete to Savion WilliamsSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+5
62.6%
Emani Bailey run for 5 yds to the TCU 48Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 48
+7
64.3%
Chandler Morris pass complete to Chase Curtis for 7 yds to the COLO 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+4
66.1%
Emani Bailey run for 4 yds to the COLO 41Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 41
+3
66.2%
Chandler Morris pass complete to JP Richardson for 3 yds to the COLO 38Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 3
OPP 38
+2
65.8%
Trey Sanders run for 2 yds to the COLO 36Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 1
OPP 36
+2
64.1%
Trey Sanders run for 2 yds to the COLO 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+2
68.6%
Emani Bailey run for 2 yds to the COLO 32Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 32
+7
68.8%
Chandler Morris pass complete to Jack Bech for 7 yds to the COLO 25Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 25
+6
66.1%
Emani Bailey run for 6 yds to the COLO 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:49
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+19
83.5%
Chandler Morris run for 19 yds for a TD (Griffin Kell KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 21TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 3:1321% → 65%
Q4 10:49
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+13
78.6%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to Xavier Weaver for 13 yds to the COLO 33Similar
Q4 10:49
2ND & 7
OWN 28
-9
77.9%
Shedeur Sanders sacked by Paul Oyewale for a loss of 9 yards to the COLO 19Similar
Q4 10:49
3RD & 16
OWN 19
+43
79.9%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to Travis Hunter for 43 yds to the TCU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:49
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+1
74.2%
Dylan Edwards run for 1 yd to the TCU 37Similar
Q4 10:49
2ND & 9
OPP 37
+11
74.3%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to Travis Hunter for 11 yds to the TCU 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:36
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+26
35.1%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to Jimmy Horn Jr. for 26 yds for a TD (Jace Feely KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 22TD
4 plays · 8 yds · 0:2154% → 86%
Q4 7:21
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+7
54.3%
Trey Sanders run for 7 yds to the COLO 1Similar
Q4 7:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
85.5%
Trey Sanders run for 1 yd for a TD (Griffin Kell KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 23TD
8 plays · 82 yds · 2:2824% → 70%
Q4 6:53
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+1
76.2%
Sy'veon Wilkerson run for 1 yd to the COLO 19Similar
Q4 6:53
2ND & 9
OWN 19
+12
76.6%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to Travis Hunter for 12 yds to the COLO 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:53
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+15
74.9%
No Huddle-Shotgun Sanders,Shedeur pass incomplete short left to Hunter,Travis broken up by Helm,Avery PENALTY TCU Pass Interference (Helm,Avery) 15 yards from CU31 to CU46, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 6:53
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
72.0%
Sy'veon Wilkerson run for no gain to the COLO 46Similar
Q4 6:53
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+8
73.5%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to Jimmy Horn Jr. for 8 yds to the TCU 46Similar
Q4 6:53
3RD & 2
OPP 46
0
71.2%
Shedeur Sanders pass incomplete to Michael HarrisonSimilar
Q4 4:25
4TH & 2
OPP 46
+46
30.0%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to Dylan Edwards for 46 yds for a TD (Jace Feely KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 24DOWNS
13 plays · 43 yds · 3:2539% → 24%
Q4 4:20
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
39.0%
Chandler Morris pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:20
2ND & 10
OWN 21
0
38.4%
Chandler Morris pass incomplete to Trey SandersSimilar
Q4 4:20
3RD & 10
OWN 21
+12
36.0%
Chandler Morris pass complete to Jared Wiley for 12 yds to the TCU 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:20
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
39.9%
Chandler Morris pass incomplete to Dylan WrightSimilar
Q4 4:20
2ND & 10
OWN 33
+12
39.6%
Chandler Morris pass complete to Trent Battle for 12 yds to the TCU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:20
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
43.7%
Chandler Morris pass incomplete to JoJo EarleSimilar
Q4 4:20
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+1
41.6%
Trent Battle run for 1 yd to the TCU 46Similar
Q4 4:20
3RD & 9
OWN 46
+10
39.7%
Chandler Morris pass complete to JP Richardson for 10 yds to the COLO 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:20
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+1
46.2%
Trey Sanders run for 1 yd to the COLO 43Similar
Q4 4:20
2ND & 9
OPP 43
0
45.9%
Trey Sanders run for no gain to the COLO 43Similar
Q4 4:20
3RD & 9
OPP 43
0
44.1%
Chandler Morris pass incomplete to Savion WilliamsSimilar
Q4 0:55
4TH & 9
OPP 43
+7
23.8%
Chandler Morris pass complete to Jared Wiley for 7 yds to the COLO 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 25END OF GAME
6 plays · 8 yds · 0:5590% → 94%
Q4 0:55
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+5
10.3%
Sy'veon Wilkerson run for 5 yds to the COLO 41Similar
Q4 0:48
2ND & 5
OWN 41
+2
6.9%
Sy'veon Wilkerson run for 2 yds to the COLO 43Similar
Q4 0:44
3RD & 3
OWN 43
+4
7.1%
Sy'veon Wilkerson run for 4 yds to the COLO 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-3
5.9%
S. Sanders takes a kneeSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 4:25
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to Dylan Edwards for 46 yds for a TD (Jace Feely KICK)
-41.2
TD · Q4 7:36
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to Jimmy Horn Jr. for 26 yds for a TD (Jace Feely KICK)
-39.2
TD · Q4 7:00
Trey Sanders run for 1 yd for a TD (Griffin Kell KICK)
+31.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com