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KSU

Kansas State 31 at Colorado 28

COLO
2024 · Week 7 · Oct 12, 2024 · Folsom Field
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Win probability · COLO
modelCOLO aheadKSU aheadconfidence bandkey playCOLO scoreKSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:35 · (00:35) Kneel down by JOHNSON, Avery at COLO33 (team loss of 1), clock 00:29.
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialPregame priorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+32.5+16.30−16.3−32.5Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 6:55: Avery Johnson pass complete to Jayce Brown for 1 yd for a TD (Chris Tennant KICK) — KSU win probability +13.3 pts (now 85%) (top driver: KSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 4:44: Shedeur Sanders pass complete to Will Sheppard for 7 yds for a TD (Alejandro Mata KICK) — COLO win probability +19.4 pts (now 40%) (top driver: COLO has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 6:44: Isaiah Augustave run for 2 yds for a TD (Alejandro Mata KICK) — COLO win probability +26.5 pts (now 43%) (top driver: Game still competitive relative to time left).
  4. TD · Q4 3:12: Shedeur Sanders pass complete to LaJohntay Wester for 11 yds for a TD (Alejandro Mata KICK) — COLO win probability +36.8 pts (now 82%) (top driver: COLO has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 2:14: Avery Johnson pass complete to Jayce Brown for 50 yds for a TD (Chris Tennant KICK) — KSU win probability +57.5 pts (now 85%) (top driver: KSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
COLO made the numbers' call on 4 of 6KSU made the numbers' call on 7 of 7
  1. Q1 13:33COLO 4th & 2 at COLO 33, tied
    Close callPunted · 42.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.7%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    42.7%−<0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:08KSU 4th & 20 at KSU 15, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 56.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.1%−0.3
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    56.4%
    average punt
  3. Q1 8:48COLO 4th & 7 at KSU 35, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 44.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    44.3%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    44.3%−0.1
    45% to make
    Punt
    44.2%−0.2
    average punt
  4. Q1 0:44KSU 4th & 4 at COLO 8, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 49.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    49.4%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    49.2%−0.3
    90% to make
    Punt
    45.7%−3.7
    average punt
  5. Q2 13:17COLO 4th & 1 at COLO 45, tied
    Close callPunted · 47.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.7%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    47.0%−0.7
    average punt
  6. Q2 9:42KSU 4th & 16 at KSU 37, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 52.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.7%−1.5
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    52.2%
    average punt
  7. Q2 5:29COLO 4th & 18 at COLO 40, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 47.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.7%−1.9
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    47.6%
    average punt
  8. Q3 8:03KSU 4th & 1 at COLO 2, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 70.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    69.8%
    60% to convert
    Field goal
    66.4%−3.4
    94% to make
    Punt
    57.1%−12.7
    average punt
  9. Q3 0:28KSU 4th & 8 at COLO 30, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 72.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.1%−0.4
    34% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    72.5%
    56% to make
    Punt
    70.7%−1.8
    average punt
  10. Q4 11:27KSU 4th & 4 at KSU 31, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 79.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.9%−0.9
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    80.8%
    average punt
  11. Q4 8:06COLO 4th & 3 at KSU 38, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 15.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    16.3%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    14.5%−1.9
    38% to make
    Punt
    13.8%−2.6
    average punt
  12. Q4 4:02KSU 4th & 6 at COLO 31, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 74.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    74.0%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    73.2%−0.8
    54% to make
    Punt
    67.7%−6.3
    average punt
  13. Q4 1:21COLO 4th & 5 at COLO 30, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 27.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    19.0%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    14.6%−4.5
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
COLO made the numbers' call on 3 of 4KSU made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 7:06COLO Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    47.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    47.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 0:44KSU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    52.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    52.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 1:52KSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    62.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    62.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 6:55KSU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    77.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    77.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 4:44COLO Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    28.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    28.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 6:44COLO Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    30.9%−0.5
    97% to make
    Go for two
    31.4%
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 3:12COLO Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    74.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    74.1%−0.6
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 2:14KSU Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    67.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    64.7%−2.3
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
COLODrive 1PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:2744% → 45%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
44.3%
Dallan Hayden run for no gain to the COLO 25Similar
Q1 14:37
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+3
44.5%
Dallan Hayden run for 3 yds to the COLO 28Similar
Q1 13:57
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+5
44.6%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to Jimmy Horn Jr. for 5 yds to the COLO 33Similar
Q1 13:33
4TH & 2
OWN 33
0
44.7%
Mark Vassett punt for 53 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 2PUNT
6 plays · 1 yds · 2:1755% → 54%
Q1 13:25
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+11
44.8%
Avery Johnson pass complete to Dante Cephas for 11 yds to the KSU 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
44.9%
DJ Giddens run for 2 yds to the KSU 27Similar
Q1 12:20
2ND & 8
OWN 27
-5
45.0%
Kansas State Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the KSU 22Similar
Q1 12:04
2ND & 13
OWN 22
+5
45.2%
Avery Johnson pass complete to Will Swanson for 5 yds to the KSU 27Similar
Q1 11:24
3RD & 8
OWN 27
-12
45.4%
Kansas State Penalty, turnover on downs. PENALTY Intentional Grounding on JOHNSON, Avery enforced resulting in a (-12 Yards) to the KSU 16Similar
Q1 11:08
4TH & 20
OWN 15
0
45.7%
Simon McClannan punt for 34 yds, downed at the KSU 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 3TD
9 plays · 49 yds · 4:0246% → 50%
Q1 11:08
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+9
45.9%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to Dallan Hayden for 9 yds to the KSU 40Similar
Q1 10:35
2ND & 1
OPP 40
+2
46.1%
Dallan Hayden run for 2 yds to the KSU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:01
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
46.3%
Dallan Hayden run for no gain to the KSU 38Similar
Q1 9:25
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+3
46.6%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to Jimmy Horn Jr. for 3 yds to the KSU 35Similar
Q1 8:54
3RD & 7
OPP 35
0
46.6%
Shedeur Sanders pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:48
4TH & 7
OPP 35
+8
46.1%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to LaJohntay Wester for 8 yds to the KSU 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:24
1ST & 10
OPP 27
-9
47.0%
Shedeur Sanders sacked by Brendan Mott for a loss of 9 yards to the KSU 36Similar
Q1 7:44
2ND & 19
OPP 36
+11
46.6%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to Omarion Miller for 11 yds to the KSU 25Similar
Q1 7:06
3RD & 8
OPP 25
+25
50.1%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to LaJohntay Wester for 25 yds for a TD (Alejandro Mata KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 4TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 6:2251% → 54%
Q1 7:06
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
49.4%
Avery Johnson pass complete to Dylan Edwards for 6 yds to the KSU 31Similar
Q1 6:26
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+5
49.5%
Dylan Edwards run for 5 yds to the KSU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:51
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+9
49.8%
Avery Johnson pass complete to Dylan Edwards for 9 yds to the KSU 45Similar
Q1 5:19
2ND & 1
OWN 45
+14
49.5%
DJ Giddens run for 14 yds to the COLO 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:49
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+2
49.7%
DJ Giddens run for 2 yds to the COLO 39Similar
Q1 4:11
2ND & 8
OPP 39
+5
50.0%
Avery Johnson pass complete to Garrett Oakley for 5 yds to the COLO 34Similar
Q1 3:28
3RD & 3
OPP 34
+20
50.4%
DJ Giddens run for 20 yds to the COLO 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:48
1ST & 10
OPP 14
-9
49.9%
Avery Johnson sacked by BJ Green II for a loss of 9 yards to the COLO 23Similar
Q1 2:11
2ND & 19
OPP 23
+3
50.5%
Avery Johnson run for 3 yds to the COLO 20Similar
Q1 1:29
3RD & 16
OPP 20
+12
51.9%
Avery Johnson pass complete to Dylan Edwards for 12 yds to the COLO 8Similar
Q1 0:44
4TH & 4
OPP 8
+8
46.5%
Avery Johnson run for 8 yds for a TD (Chris Tennant KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 5PUNT
6 plays · 20 yds · 2:2748% → 49%
Q1 0:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
48.1%
Dallan Hayden run for 3 yds to the COLO 28Similar
Q1 0:04
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+8
48.4%
Shedeur Sanders run for 8 yds to the COLO 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
48.8%
Dallan Hayden run for 2 yds to the COLO 38Similar
Q2 14:32
2ND & 8
OWN 38
+6
49.1%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to Travis Hunter for 6 yds to the COLO 44Similar
Q2 14:01
3RD & 2
OWN 44
+1
49.6%
Dallan Hayden run for 1 yd to the COLO 45Similar
Q2 13:17
4TH & 1
OWN 45
0
49.1%
Mark Vassett punt for 51 yds, downed at the KSU 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 6PUNT
8 plays · 33 yds · 3:2352% → 51%
Q2 13:05
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+26
48.0%
DJ Giddens run for 26 yds to the KSU 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:20
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+5
47.6%
Avery Johnson pass complete to Dante Cephas for 5 yds to the KSU 35Similar
Q2 11:51
2ND & 5
OWN 35
-5
47.0%
Kansas State Penalty, False Start (Carver Willis) to the KSU 30Similar
Q2 11:36
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+13
47.9%
DJ Giddens run for 13 yds to the KSU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:01
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+2
46.5%
Dylan Edwards run for 2 yds to the KSU 45Similar
Q2 10:27
2ND & 8
OWN 45
0
46.4%
Avery Johnson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:22
3RD & 8
OWN 45
-8
47.5%
Avery Johnson sacked by Cam'Ron Silmon-Craig for a loss of 8 yards to the KSU 37Similar
Q2 9:42
4TH & 16
OWN 37
0
49.3%
Simon McClannan punt for 47 yds, fair catch by LaJohntay Wester at the COLO 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 7PUNT
10 plays · 24 yds · 4:0650% → 49%
Q2 9:35
1ST & 10
OWN 16
0
49.8%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to Drelon Miller for no gain to the COLO 16Similar
Q2 9:14
2ND & 10
OWN 16
+12
49.7%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to Jimmy Horn Jr. for 12 yds to the COLO 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:38
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+6
50.3%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to Travis Hunter for 6 yds to the COLO 34Similar
Q2 8:08
2ND & 4
OWN 34
+14
51.4%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to Travis Hunter for 14 yds to the COLO 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:16
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
52.2%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to LaJohntay Wester for no gain to the COLO 48Similar
Q2 6:44
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+3
51.9%
Shedeur Sanders run for 3 yds to the KSU 49Similar
Q2 6:14
3RD & 7
OPP 49
-11
51.7%
Shedeur Sanders sacked by Travis Bates for a loss of 11 yards to the COLO 40Similar
Q2 5:29
4TH & 18
OWN 40
+20
48.7%
Mark Vassett punt for 40 yds , Dylan Edwards returns for 20 yds to the KSU 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 8TD
9 plays · 60 yds · 3:2655% → 69%
Q2 5:18
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+7
45.2%
DJ Giddens run for 7 yds to the KSU 47Similar
Q2 4:39
2ND & 3
OWN 47
+20
44.6%
DJ Giddens run for 20 yds to the COLO 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:00
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+13
43.1%
DJ Giddens run for 13 yds to the COLO 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:27
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+3
42.8%
DJ Giddens run for 3 yds to the COLO 17Similar
Q2 2:49
2ND & 7
OPP 17
+2
42.5%
DJ Giddens run for 2 yds to the COLO 15Similar
Q2 2:07
3RD & 5
OPP 15
+5
43.6%
DJ Giddens run for 5 yds to the COLO 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:59
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+9
41.8%
Dylan Edwards run for 9 yds to the COLO 1Similar
Q2 1:52
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
30.9%
Dylan Edwards run for 1 yd for a TD (Chris Tennant KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 9DOWNS
7 plays · 20 yds · 1:3136% → 38%
Q2 1:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+22
35.6%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to Will Sheppard for 22 yds to the COLO 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:35
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-5
37.7%
Colorado Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the COLO 42Similar
Q2 1:17
1ST & 15
OWN 42
+24
36.0%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to Omarion Miller for 24 yds to the KSU 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:06
1ST & 10
OPP 34
-16
40.0%
Shedeur Sanders sacked by Desmond Purnell for a loss of 16 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 0:56
2ND & 26
50
+7
38.1%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to Omarion Miller for 7 yds to the KSU 43Similar
Q2 0:21
3RD & 19
OPP 43
-13
37.6%
Colorado Penalty, turnover on downs. PENALTY Intentional Grounding on SANDERS, Shedeur enforced resulting in a (-13 Yards) to the COLO 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 10TD
17 plays · 81 yds · 7:5765% → 85%
Q3 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 19
0
35.0%
DJ Giddens run for no gain to the KSU 19Similar
Q3 14:11
2ND & 10
OWN 19
0
35.1%
Avery Johnson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 14:11
3RD & 10
OWN 19
+10
36.1%
Avery Johnson run for 10 yds to the KSU 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:29
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
34.0%
Jadon Jackson run for no gain to the KSU 29Similar
Q3 13:17
2ND & 10
OWN 29
+33
34.4%
Avery Johnson pass complete to Jayce Brown for 33 yds to the COLO 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:59
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+8
31.8%
DJ Giddens run for 8 yds to the COLO 30Similar
Q3 12:06
2ND & 2
OPP 30
+3
30.9%
DJ Giddens run for 3 yds to the COLO 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:30
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+2
30.6%
Dylan Edwards run for 2 yds to the COLO 25Similar
Q3 10:12
2ND & 8
OPP 25
+1
30.1%
Ta'Quan Roberson pass complete to Jayce Brown for 1 yd to the COLO 24Similar
Q3 10:10
3RD & 7
OPP 24
+13
31.1%
Ta'Quan Roberson pass complete to Jayce Brown for 13 yds to the COLO 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:24
1ST & 10
OPP 11
-5
29.9%
Kansas State Penalty, False Start (Will Swanson) to the COLO 16Similar
Q3 9:03
1ST & 15
OPP 16
0
30.0%
Ta'Quan Roberson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:59
2ND & 15
OPP 16
+12
30.0%
DJ Giddens run for 12 yds to the COLO 4Similar
Q3 8:15
3RD & 3
OPP 4
+2
30.2%
DJ Giddens run for 2 ydsSimilar
Q3 8:03
4TH & 1
OPP 2
+1
30.7%
DJ Giddens run for 1 yd to the COLO 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:38
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
28.5%
DJ Giddens run for no gain to the COLO 1Similar
Q3 6:55
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
15.2%
Avery Johnson pass complete to Jayce Brown for 1 yd for a TD (Chris Tennant KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 11TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 2:1120% → 40%
Q3 6:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+25
19.7%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to Will Sheppard for 25 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:26
1ST & 10
50
+15
21.6%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to Will Sheppard for 15 yds to the KSU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:03
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+13
22.5%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to Omarion Miller for 13 yds to the KSU 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:42
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
22.4%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to Omarion Miller for no gain to the KSU 22Similar
Q3 5:12
2ND & 10
OPP 22
0
21.7%
Shedeur Sanders pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:06
3RD & 10
OPP 22
+15
20.4%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to Omarion Miller for 15 yds to the KSU 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:44
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
39.8%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to Will Sheppard for 7 yds for a TD (Alejandro Mata KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 12FG
9 plays · 27 yds · 4:0772% → 78%
Q3 4:35
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+15
28.0%
DJ Giddens run for 15 yds to the COLO 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:53
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+3
25.8%
DJ Giddens run for 3 yds to the COLO 39Similar
Q3 3:21
2ND & 7
OPP 39
-7
25.1%
Avery Johnson sacked by BJ Green II for a loss of 7 yards to the COLO 46Similar
Q3 2:40
3RD & 14
OPP 46
+14
27.6%
Avery Johnson pass complete to Jadon Jackson for 14 yds to the COLO 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:59
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+1
24.0%
DJ Giddens run for 1 yd to the COLO 31Similar
Q3 1:21
2ND & 9
OPP 31
+1
23.9%
DJ Giddens run for 1 yd to the COLO 30Similar
Q3 0:38
3RD & 8
OPP 30
0
24.4%
Avery Johnson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 0:28
4TH & 8
OPP 30
+48
22.5%
Chris Tennant 48 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 13INT
6 plays · 54 yds · 2:0122% → 26%
Q3 0:28
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-7
21.9%
Shedeur Sanders sacked by Ryan Davis for a loss of 7 yards to the COLO 18Similar
Q3 0:08
2ND & 17
OWN 18
+4
21.3%
Isaiah Augustave run for 4 yds to the COLO 22Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 13
OWN 22
+24
20.4%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to Omarion Miller for 24 yds to the COLO 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:18
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-18
23.8%
Colorado Penalty, Intentional Grounding (Shilo Sanders) to the COLO 29Similar
Q4 13:38
2ND & 28
OWN 28
+51
20.3%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to Omarion Miller for 51 yds to the KSU 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:27
1ST & 10
OPP 21
-24
25.7%
Shedeur Sanders pass intercepted VJ Payne return for 24 yds to the KSU 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 14PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:5278% → 81%
Q4 13:19
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
21.9%
Dylan Edwards run for 1 yd to the KSU 26Similar
Q4 12:40
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+1
19.5%
Dylan Edwards run for 1 yd to the KSU 27Similar
Q4 11:58
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+4
20.1%
Avery Johnson pass complete to DJ Giddens for 4 yds to the KSU 31Similar
Q4 11:27
4TH & 4
OWN 31
0
19.4%
Simon McClannan punt for 41 yds, fair catch by LaJohntay Wester at the COLO 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 15TD
14 plays · 72 yds · 4:3819% → 43%
Q4 11:22
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+9
18.8%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to Drelon Miller for 9 yds to the COLO 37Similar
Q4 11:00
2ND & 1
OWN 37
+4
20.0%
Isaiah Augustave run for 4 yds to the COLO 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:40
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+14
19.7%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to Will Sheppard for 14 yds to the KSU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:16
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
18.3%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to Drelon Miller for no gain to the KSU 45Similar
Q4 9:49
2ND & 10
OPP 45
-10
17.8%
(09:49) SANDERS, Shedeur pass short to the left incomplete intended for AUGUSTAVE, Isaiah thrown to the KSU40, clock 09:40. PENALTY COLO Holding on HARDEN, Kareem enforced 10 yards from the KSU45 to the COLO45 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 9:39
2ND & 20
OWN 45
+13
15.5%
Shedeur Sanders run for 13 yds to the KSU 42Similar
Q4 9:01
3RD & 7
OPP 42
0
17.4%
(09:01) SANDERS, Shedeur pass up the middle incomplete intended for SHEPPARD, Will thrown to the KSU30, clock 08:55. PENALTY COLO Holding on SEATON, Jordan KSU Pass Interference on GARBER, Keenan , Offsetting penalties [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 8:54
3RD & 7
OPP 42
+4
17.4%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to Isaiah Augustave for 4 yds to the KSU 38Similar
Q4 8:06
4TH & 3
OPP 38
+14
15.7%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to LaJohntay Wester for 14 yds to the KSU 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:40
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+17
17.1%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to Drelon Miller for 17 yds to the KSU 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:01
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
0
16.5%
Shedeur Sanders pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:56
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+1
16.4%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to Drelon Miller for 1 yd to the KSU 2Similar
Q4 6:44
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
42.9%
Isaiah Augustave run for 2 yds for a TD (Alejandro Mata KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 16DOWNS
9 plays · -8 yds · 2:4170% → 77%
Q4 6:43
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
29.7%
Avery Johnson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:38
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+23
30.3%
Avery Johnson pass complete to Jayce Brown for 23 yds to the KSU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:00
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+5
23.3%
DJ Giddens run for 5 yds to the COLO 47Similar
Q4 5:21
2ND & 5
OPP 47
+12
22.3%
Avery Johnson pass complete to Garrett Oakley for 12 yds to the COLO 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:43
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+4
19.4%
DJ Giddens run for 4 yds to the COLO 31Similar
Q4 4:10
2ND & 6
OPP 31
0
17.9%
Avery Johnson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:07
3RD & 6
OPP 31
0
20.4%
Avery Johnson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:02
4TH & 6
OPP 31
-59
22.9%
Avery Johnson pass intercepted Colton Hood return for 59 yds to the KSU 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 17TD
2 plays · 17 yds · 0:3945% → 82%
Q4 3:51
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+6
45.2%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to Terrell Timmons Jr. for 6 yds to the KSU 11Similar
Q4 3:12
2ND & 4
OPP 11
+11
82.0%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to LaJohntay Wester for 11 yds for a TD (Alejandro Mata KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 18TD
3 plays · 84 yds · 0:4829% → 85%
Q4 3:02
1ST & 10
OWN 16
0
71.3%
Avery Johnson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:59
2ND & 10
OWN 16
+34
72.2%
Avery Johnson pass complete to DJ Giddens for 34 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:14
1ST & 10
50
+50
14.7%
Avery Johnson pass complete to Jayce Brown for 50 yds for a TD (Chris Tennant KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 19DOWNS
6 plays · 5 yds · 0:5333% → 21%
Q4 2:14
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
32.7%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to Dallan Hayden for 4 yds to the COLO 29Similar
Q4 1:59
2ND & 6
OWN 29
0
28.4%
Shedeur Sanders pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:51
3RD & 6
OWN 29
-5
25.1%
Colorado Penalty, False Start (Phillip Houston) to the COLO 24Similar
Q4 1:51
3RD & 11
OWN 24
+6
23.3%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to Dallan Hayden for 6 yds to the COLO 30Similar
Q4 1:21
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
21.3%
Shedeur Sanders pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 20END OF 4TH QUARTER
4 plays · -3 yds · 0:3892% → 95%
Q4 1:13
1ST & 10
OPP 30
-1
8.4%
(01:13) [NH] Kneel down by JOHNSON, Avery at COLO31 (team loss of 1), clock 01:08.Similar
Q4 1:07
2ND & 11
OPP 31
-1
6.4%
(01:07) Kneel down by JOHNSON, Avery at COLO32 (team loss of 1), clock 01:02.Similar
Q4 0:35
3RD & 12
OPP 32
-1
5.4%
(00:35) Kneel down by JOHNSON, Avery at COLO33 (team loss of 1), clock 00:29.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 2:14
Avery Johnson pass complete to Jayce Brown for 50 yds for a TD (Chris Tennant KICK)
-57.5
TD · Q4 3:12
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to LaJohntay Wester for 11 yds for a TD (Alejandro Mata KICK)
+36.8
TD · Q4 6:44
Isaiah Augustave run for 2 yds for a TD (Alejandro Mata KICK)
+26.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com