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COLO

Colorado 56 at California 59

CAL
2014 · Week 5 · Sep 27, 2014 · California Memorial Stadium
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Win probability · CAL
modelCAL aheadCOLO aheadconfidence bandkey playCAL scoreCOLO score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4OTTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
OT 0:00 · James Langford 34 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsTime remaining
+31.5+15.80−15.8−31.5Q1Q2Q3Q4OT
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q4 3:23: Sefo Liufau pass complete to Nelson Spruce for 6 yds for a TD, (Will Oliver KICK) — COLO win probability +34.8 pts (now 90%) (top driver: COLO has the ball).
  2. TD · Q4 2:56: Jared Goff pass complete to Stephen Anderson for 75 yds for a TD, (James Langford KICK) — CAL win probability +35.2 pts (now 56%) (top driver: CAL has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 2:29: Jared Goff pass complete to Chris Harper for 40 yds for a TD, (James Langford KICK) — CAL win probability +30.5 pts (now 94%) (top driver: CAL has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 0:21: Sefo Liufau pass complete to Bryce Bobo for 30 yds for a TD, (Will Oliver KICK) — COLO win probability +51.9 pts (now 61%) (top driver: COLO has the ball).
  5. TD · OT 0:00: Sefo Liufau pass complete to Nelson Spruce for 25 yds for a TD, (Will Oliver KICK) — COLO win probability +43.5 pts (now 58%) (top driver: defense timeouts not recorded for this play).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
CAL made the numbers' call on 4 of 5COLO made the numbers' call on 7 of 8
  1. Q1 15:00COLO 4th & 8 at COLO 43, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.8%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.8%
    average punt
  2. Q1 13:15COLO 4th & 3 at CAL 38, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 20.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    20.3%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    20.2%−0.1
    38% to make
    Punt
    20.2%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 10:52CAL 4th & 20 at CAL 15, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 77.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.7%−0.3
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    78.0%
    average punt
  4. Q2 13:52CAL 4th & 3 at COLO 43, down 14
    Close callPunted · 65.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.2%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    64.9%−1.3
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    65.4%−0.8
    average punt
  5. Q2 13:45COLO 4th & 5 at COLO 48, up 14
    Close callPunted · 36.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.0%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    37.0%−<0.1
    average punt
  6. Q2 5:29COLO 4th & 10 at CAL 21, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 39.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.5%−0.9
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    38.5%
    74% to make
    Punt
    33.5%−4.9
    average punt
  7. Q2 5:29CAL 4th & 8 at CAL 35, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 61.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.3%−0.9
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    61.3%
    average punt
  8. Q3 13:06COLO 4th & 23 at COLO 25, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 44.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.9%−4.6
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    46.5%
    average punt
  9. Q3 7:32COLO 4th & 16 at COLO 17, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 32.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.8%−4.2
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    34.0%
    average punt
  10. Q4 15:00CAL 4th & 15 at CAL 7, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 60.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.4%−5.1
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    61.5%
    average punt
  11. Q4 12:10COLO 4th & 7 at CAL 28, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 42.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.3%−0.4
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    41.7%
    60% to make
    Punt
    28.4%−13.3
    average punt
  12. Q4 7:12CAL 4th & 10 at COLO 24, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 61.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.3%−2.8
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    60.2%
    68% to make
    Punt
    42.6%−17.6
    average punt
  13. Q4 1:12COLO 4th & 3 at CAL 35, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 13.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    11.7%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    6.5%−5.2
    45% to make
    Punt
    5.5%−6.2
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
CAL made the numbers' call on 7 of 7COLO made the numbers' call on 6 of 7
  1. Q1 10:52COLO Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    21.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    21.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 7:53COLO Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    24.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    24.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 5:52CAL Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    74.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    74.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q1 1:35COLO Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    31.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    31.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 10:02CAL Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    65.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    65.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 0:40COLO Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    52.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    52.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 13:12CAL Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    50.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    50.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 7:39CAL Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    64.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    64.3%−0.2
    45% to convert
  9. Q3 4:51CAL Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    78.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    78.0%−0.2
    45% to convert
  10. Q3 0:52COLO Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    33.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    33.4%−0.2
    45% to convert
  11. Q4 3:23COLO Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Numbers favored go for two by 1.2 ptsKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    76.7%−1.2
    97% to make
    Go for two
    78.0%
    45% to convert
  12. Q4 2:56CAL Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    50.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    48.4%−2.3
    45% to convert
  13. Q4 2:29CAL Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    87.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    86.1%−1.2
    45% to convert
  14. Q4 0:21COLO Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    41.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    38.2%−2.8
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
COLODrive 1PUNT
7 plays · 22 yds · 0:0019% → 19%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+5
81.3%
Tony Jones run for 5 yds to the Colo 26Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 26
+15
81.3%
Liufau, Sefo pass incomplete to Spruce, Nelson, PENALTY CAL pass interference (Dozier, Cedric) 15 yards to the COLO41, 1ST DOWN COLO, NO PLAY. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
81.3%
Sefo Liufau pass incomplete to Nelson Spruce, broken up by Griffin PiattSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+2
81.3%
Christian Powell run for 2 yds to the Colo 43Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 8
OWN 43
0
81.3%
Sefo Liufau pass incomplete to N/ASimilar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 8
OWN 43
0
81.3%
Darragh O'Neill punt for 41 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 2INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0081% → 81%
Q1 13:30
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+15
80.9%
Jared Goff pass intercepted Tedric Thompson return for 10 yds to the Colo 26 COLORADO Penalty, IB (John Walker) to the Colo 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 3TD
7 plays · 56 yds · 2:2319% → 21%
Q1 13:15
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+11
80.7%
Sefo Liufau pass complete to Tyler McCulloch for 11 yds to the Cal 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:15
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+5
80.7%
Sefo Liufau pass complete to Nelson Spruce for 5 yds to the Cal 40Similar
Q1 13:15
2ND & 5
OPP 40
+2
80.7%
Donovan Lee run for 2 yds to the Cal 38Similar
Q1 13:15
3RD & 3
OPP 38
0
80.7%
Sefo Liufau pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:15
4TH & 3
OPP 38
+3
80.8%
Sefo Liufau pass complete to Nelson Spruce for 3 yds to the Cal 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:15
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+13
80.7%
Sefo Liufau pass complete to D.D. Goodson for 13 yds to the Cal 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:52
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+22
78.8%
Sefo Liufau pass complete to Sean Irwin for 22 yds for a TD, (Will Oliver KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 4PUNT
6 plays · -10 yds · 0:0079% → 79%
Q1 10:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
79.2%
Daniel Lasco run for 5 yds to the Cal 30Similar
Q1 10:52
2ND & 5
OWN 30
-15
79.2%
Muhammad, Khalf rush for loss of 5 yards to the CAL25 (Thompson,Tedric), PENALTY CAL illegal block (Clark, Austin) 15 yards to the CAL15, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 10:52
2ND & 20
OWN 15
0
79.1%
Jared Goff pass incomplete to Stephen AndersonSimilar
Q1 10:52
3RD & 20
OWN 15
0
79.0%
Jared Goff pass incomplete to Kenny LawlerSimilar
Q1 10:52
4TH & 20
OWN 15
0
78.9%
Cole Leininger punt for 41 yds, downed at the Colo 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 5TD
5 plays · 56 yds · 1:4422% → 25%
Q1 9:37
2ND & 11
OPP 41
+39
78.1%
Sefo Liufau run for 39 yds to the Cal 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:37
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+16
78.1%
Sefo Liufau pass complete to Tyler McCulloch for 16 yds to the Cal 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:37
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-1
78.1%
Phillip Lindsay run for a loss of 1 yard to the Cal 41Similar
Q1 9:37
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
0
78.0%
Phillip Lindsay run for no gain to the Cal 2Similar
Q1 7:53
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
74.7%
Sefo Liufau pass complete to George Frazier for 2 yds for a TD, (Will Oliver KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 6TD
7 plays · 63 yds · 1:5476% → 77%
Q1 7:46
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+10
75.7%
Jared Goff pass complete to Stephen Anderson for 10 yds to the Cal 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:46
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+11
76.0%
Daniel Lasco run for 11 yds to the Colo 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:46
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+28
76.0%
Jared Goff pass complete to Kenny Lawler for 28 yds to the Colo 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:46
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+6
76.2%
Khalfani Muhammad run for 6 yds to the Colo 8Similar
Q1 7:46
2ND & 4
OPP 8
+3
76.4%
Khalfani Muhammad run for 3 yds to the Colo 5Similar
Q1 5:52
3RD & 1
OPP 5
+5
76.9%
Jared Goff pass complete to Lucus Gingold for 5 yds for a TD, (James Langford KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 7TD
15 plays · 75 yds · 4:1224% → 33%
Q1 5:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
75.8%
Sefo Liufau pass incomplete to Michael Adkins IISimilar
Q1 5:47
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+7
75.9%
Sefo Liufau run for 7 yds to the Colo 32Similar
Q1 5:47
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+5
75.8%
Sefo Liufau pass complete to Tyler McCulloch for 5 yds to the Colo 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:47
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+5
75.6%
Sefo Liufau pass complete to Donovan Lee for 5 yds to the Colo 42Similar
Q1 5:47
2ND & 5
OWN 42
+7
75.4%
Sefo Liufau run for 7 yds to the Colo 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:47
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+10
75.3%
Sefo Liufau pass complete to Sean Irwin for 10 yds to the CALIFORNIA 41 for a 1ST down CALIFORNIA Penalty, Defensive holding ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:47
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+6
75.3%
Sefo Liufau pass complete to Bryce Bobo for 6 yds to the Cal 35Similar
Q1 5:47
2ND & 4
OPP 35
+5
75.2%
Sefo Liufau pass complete to Shay Fields for 5 yds to the Cal 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:47
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
75.2%
Sefo Liufau pass incomplete to Tyler McCullochSimilar
Q1 5:47
2ND & 10
OPP 30
0
75.2%
Sefo Liufau pass incomplete to Shay Fields, broken up by Griffin PiattSimilar
Q1 5:47
3RD & 10
OPP 30
+11
75.4%
Sefo Liufau pass complete to Christian Powell for 11 yds to the Cal 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:47
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+9
75.2%
CALIFORNIA Penalty, personal foul (9 Yards) to the Cal 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:47
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+8
75.2%
Christian Powell run for 8 yds to the Cal 2Similar
Q1 1:35
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+7
67.5%
D.D. Goodson 7 Yd pass from Sefo Liufau (Will Oliver Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 8PUNT
10 plays · 32 yds · 2:4369% → 67%
Q1 1:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+14
68.9%
Jared Goff pass complete to Trevor Davis for 14 yds to the Cal 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:35
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+3
69.6%
Daniel Lasco run for 3 yds to the Cal 42Similar
Q1 1:35
2ND & 7
OWN 42
+5
69.8%
Jared Goff pass complete to Bryce Treggs for 5 yds to the Cal 47Similar
Q1 1:35
3RD & 2
OWN 47
+3
69.8%
Daniel Lasco run for 3 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
50
0
68.4%
Luke Rubenzer run for no gain to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
50
+7
68.3%
Jared Goff pass complete to Stephen Anderson for 7 yds to the Colo 43Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 3
OPP 43
0
68.3%
Jared Goff pass incomplete to Kenny Lawler, broken up by Ken CrawleySimilar
Q2 13:52
4TH & 3
OPP 43
0
67.3%
Cole Leininger punt for 43 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 9PUNT
5 plays · 28 yds · 0:0035% → 36%
Q2 13:45
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+23
64.9%
Sefo Liufau pass complete to Nelson Spruce for 23 yds to the Colo 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:45
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+2
64.3%
Tony Jones run for 2 yds to the Colo 45Similar
Q2 13:45
2ND & 8
OWN 45
+7
64.3%
Tony Jones run for 7 yds to the Cal 48Similar
Q2 13:45
4TH & 5
OWN 48
0
64.8%
Darragh O'Neill punt for 51 yds, downed at the Cal 1Similar
Q2 13:45
3RD & 1
OPP 48
-4
64.5%
Sefo Liufau run for a loss of 4 yards to the Colo 48 Sefo Liufau fumbled, recovered by Colo Sefo LiufauSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 10TD
6 plays · 99 yds · 1:4963% → 69%
Q2 11:51
2ND & 10
OWN 1
+5
62.5%
Goff, Jared at QB for California, Goff, Jared pass incomplete to Lasco, Daniel, PENALTY COLO offside (McCartney,Derek) 5 yards to the CAL6, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 11:51
2ND & 5
OWN 6
+7
62.5%
Jared Goff pass complete to Stephen Anderson for 7 yds to the Cal 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:51
1ST & 10
OWN 13
-5
62.7%
Daniel Lasco run for a loss of 5 yards to the Cal 8Similar
Q2 11:51
1ST & 10
OWN 1
0
62.5%
Jared Goff pass incomplete to Maurice HarrisSimilar
Q2 11:51
2ND & 10
OWN 1
0
62.5%
Rubenzer, Luke at QB for California, Rubenzer, Luke rush for 30 yards to the CAL31 (Parker, Juda), PENALTY CAL personal foul (Crosthwaite, Al) 0 yards to the CAL1, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 10:02
2ND & 15
OWN 8
+92
68.8%
Jared Goff pass complete to Daniel Lasco for 92 yds for a TD, (James Langford KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 11MISSED FG
12 plays · 55 yds · 4:1932% → 37%
Q2 9:48
1ST & 10
OWN 24
-1
68.2%
Michael Adkins II run for a loss of 1 yard to the Colo 23Similar
Q2 9:48
2ND & 11
OWN 23
+8
68.4%
Sefo Liufau run for 8 yds to the Colo 31Similar
Q2 9:48
3RD & 3
OWN 31
+4
67.9%
Sefo Liufau pass complete to Nelson Spruce for 4 yds to the Colo 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:48
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+29
67.7%
Sefo Liufau pass complete to Nelson Spruce for 34 yds to the CALIFORNIA 31 for a 1ST down COLORADO Penalty, illegal block (Bryce Bobo) to the Cal 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:48
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+2
66.5%
Michael Adkins II run for 2 yds to the Cal 34Similar
Q2 9:48
2ND & 8
OPP 34
+6
66.3%
Sefo Liufau pass complete to Nelson Spruce for 6 yds to the Cal 28Similar
Q2 9:48
3RD & 2
OPP 28
+7
66.5%
Christian Powell run for 7 yds to the Cal 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:48
1ST & 10
OPP 21
0
66.2%
Michael Adkins II run for no gain to the Cal 21Similar
Q2 9:48
2ND & 10
OPP 21
0
66.3%
Sefo Liufau pass incomplete to Shay FieldsSimilar
Q2 9:48
3RD & 10
OPP 21
0
66.7%
Sefo Liufau pass incomplete to Michael Adkins IISimilar
Q2 5:29
4TH & 10
OPP 21
+39
62.8%
Will Oliver 39 Yard Field Goal MissedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 12PUNT
5 plays · 14 yds · 0:0064% → 63%
Q2 5:29
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+12
64.0%
Daniel Lasco run for 12 yds to the Cal 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:29
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
64.5%
Jared Goff pass incomplete to Kenny Lawler, broken up by Ken CrawleySimilar
Q2 5:29
2ND & 10
OWN 33
+2
64.5%
Daniel Lasco run for 2 yds to the Cal 35Similar
Q2 5:29
3RD & 8
OWN 35
0
63.9%
Jared Goff pass incomplete to Maurice Harris CALIFORNIA Penalty, face mask (0 yards) ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q2 5:29
4TH & 8
OWN 35
0
63.1%
Cole Leininger punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Nelson Spruce at the Colo 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 13TD
14 plays · 70 yds · 3:3738% → 60%
Q2 4:17
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
62.1%
Sefo Liufau pass incomplete to Nelson Spruce, broken up by Griffin PiattSimilar
Q2 4:17
2ND & 10
OWN 30
0
62.3%
Sefo Liufau pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:17
3RD & 10
OWN 30
+28
63.1%
Sefo Liufau pass complete to Tony Jones for 13 yds to the Cal 43 for a 1ST down CALIFORNIA Penalty, roughing passer (Brennan Scarlett) to the Cal 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:17
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
60.1%
Tony Jones run for no gain to the Cal 42Similar
Q2 4:17
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+7
60.1%
Sefo Liufau pass complete to Shay Fields for 7 yds to the Cal 35Similar
Q2 4:17
3RD & 3
OPP 35
+15
60.2%
CALIFORNIA Penalty, personal foul (Michael Lowe) to the Cal 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:44
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+15
55.4%
Tony Jones run for 15 yds to the Cal 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:44
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+3
55.4%
Tony Jones run for 3 yds to the Cal 2Similar
Q2 2:44
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
-3
55.4%
Tony Jones run for a loss of 3 yards to the Cal 5Similar
Q2 1:22
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+3
52.4%
Liufau, Sefo pass incomplete to Spruce, Nelson, PENALTY CAL pass interference (Walker, Cameron) 3 yards to the CAL2, 1ST DOWN COLO, NO PLAY. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:22
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
51.6%
Christian Powell run for 1 yd to the Cal 1Similar
Q2 0:40
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
40.5%
George Frazier run for 1 yd for a TD, (Will Oliver KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 14FUMBLE
3 plays · -6 yds · 0:0045% → 45%
Q2 0:35
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
45.4%
Jared Goff pass incomplete to Kenny LawlerSimilar
Q2 0:35
2ND & 10
OWN 29
-6
45.2%
Jared Goff sacked by Jimmie Gilbert for a loss of 6 yards to the Cal 23 Jared Goff fumbled, recovered by Colo Juda Parker , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 15MISSED FG
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:2461% → 61%
Q2 0:24
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+4
39.4%
Sefo Liufau pass complete to D.D. Goodson for 4 yds to the Cal 19Similar
Q2 0:16
2ND & 6
OPP 19
-10
40.3%
Liufau, Sefo pass incomplete to Goodson, D.D. (Piatt, Griffin), PENALTY COLO pass interference 10 yards to the CAL29, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:16
2ND & 16
OPP 29
+7
40.9%
Sefo Liufau pass complete to Christian Powell for 7 yds to the Cal 22Similar
Q2 0:00
3RD & 9
OPP 22
+39
39.2%
Will Oliver 39 Yard Field Goal MissedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 16TD
6 plays · 61 yds · 1:3946% → 61%
Q3 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+21
46.1%
Daniel Lasco run for 21 yds to the Colo 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:51
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
47.1%
Daniel Lasco run for no gain to the Colo 40Similar
Q3 14:51
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+1
47.2%
Jared Goff pass complete to Chris Harper for 1 yd to the Colo 39Similar
Q3 14:51
3RD & 9
OPP 39
+13
46.8%
Jared Goff pass complete to Trevor Davis for 13 yds to the Colo 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:12
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+26
60.8%
Kenny Lawler 26 Yd pass from Jared Goff (James Langford Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 17PUNT
9 plays · -2 yds · 0:0047% → 44%
Q3 13:06
1ST & 10
OWN 27
-4
53.2%
Michael Adkins II run for a loss of 4 yards to the Colo 23Similar
Q3 13:06
2ND & 14
OWN 23
+15
54.3%
Sefo Liufau pass complete to Tyler McCulloch for 15 yds to the Colo 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:06
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+2
51.7%
Christian Powell run for 2 yds to the Colo 40Similar
Q3 13:06
2ND & 8
OWN 40
-5
51.3%
COLORADO Penalty, false start (Jeromy Irwin) to the Colo 35Similar
Q3 13:06
2ND & 13
OWN 35
+5
54.1%
Sefo Liufau pass complete to Nelson Spruce for 5 yds to the Colo 40Similar
Q3 13:06
3RD & 8
OWN 40
0
52.3%
Sefo Liufau pass incomplete to D.D. Goodson, broken up by Trey Cheek COLORADO Penalty, illegal shift ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q3 13:06
4TH & 8
OWN 40
-15
54.3%
COLORADO Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (-15 Yards) to the Colo 25Similar
Q3 13:06
4TH & 23
OWN 25
0
56.0%
Darragh O'Neill punt for 24 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Colo 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 18TD
9 plays · 49 yds · 2:3856% → 71%
Q3 10:17
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-10
56.4%
Lasco, Daniel rush for 15 yards to the COLO34 (Gillam, Addison), PENALTY CAL holding (Rigsbee, Jordan) 10 yards to the CAL41, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 10:17
1ST & 20
OWN 41
+15
53.3%
Goff, Jared pass incomplete to Lawler, Kenny (Crawley, Ken), PENALTY COLO roughing passer (Tupou, Josh) 15 yards to the COLO44, 1ST DOWN CAL, NO PLAY. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:17
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+16
56.6%
Daniel Lasco run for 26 yds to the Colo 18 for a 1ST down CALIFORNIA Penalty, IB (Chris Harper) to the Colo 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:17
1ST & 10
OPP 28
-2
58.1%
Khalfani Muhammad run for a loss of 2 yards to the Colo 30Similar
Q3 10:17
2ND & 12
OPP 30
0
57.4%
Jared Goff pass incomplete to Kenny Lawler, broken up by Ken CrawleySimilar
Q3 10:17
3RD & 12
OPP 30
+12
54.3%
Jared Goff pass complete to Stephen Anderson for 12 yds to the Colo 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:17
1ST & 10
OPP 18
0
58.1%
Jared Goff pass incomplete to Bryce Treggs, broken up by John WalkerSimilar
Q3 10:17
2ND & 10
OPP 18
+8
58.1%
Jared Goff pass complete to Raymond Hudson for 8 yds to the Colo 10Similar
Q3 7:39
3RD & 2
OPP 10
+10
71.4%
Khalfani Muhammad 10 Yd Run (James Langford Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 19PUNT
6 plays · -6 yds · 0:0035% → 32%
Q3 7:32
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
65.0%
Sefo Liufau pass incomplete to Bryce BoboSimilar
Q3 7:32
2ND & 10
OWN 23
0
65.3%
Sefo Liufau pass incomplete to Nelson SpruceSimilar
Q3 7:32
3RD & 10
OWN 23
-5
66.4%
COLORADO Penalty, false start (Jeromy Irwin) to the Colo 18Similar
Q3 7:32
3RD & 15
OWN 18
-1
66.8%
Sefo Liufau pass complete to Nelson Spruce for a loss of 1 yard to the Colo 17Similar
Q3 7:32
4TH & 16
OWN 17
0
67.8%
Darragh O'Neill punt for 34 yds, downed at the Cal 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 20TD
5 plays · 51 yds · 1:4571% → 85%
Q3 6:36
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+4
70.9%
Daniel Lasco run for 4 yds to the Colo 47Similar
Q3 6:36
2ND & 6
OPP 47
0
71.5%
Jared Goff pass incomplete to Chris HarperSimilar
Q3 6:36
3RD & 6
OPP 47
+41
70.6%
Jared Goff pass complete to Khalfani Muhammad for 41 yds to the Colo 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:36
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+1
72.4%
Khalfani Muhammad run for 1 yd to the Colo 5Similar
Q3 4:51
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
84.9%
Jared Goff pass complete to Kenny Lawler for 5 yds for a TD, (James Langford KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 21TD
10 plays · 68 yds · 3:5121% → 45%
Q3 4:43
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+2
79.0%
Michael Adkins II run for 2 yds to the Colo 34Similar
Q3 4:43
2ND & 8
OWN 34
+15
79.0%
Sefo Liufau pass complete to Tyler McCulloch for 15 yds to the Colo 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:43
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+5
77.1%
Sefo Liufau run for 5 yds to the Cal 46Similar
Q3 4:43
2ND & 5
OPP 46
+6
76.7%
Sefo Liufau pass complete to Nelson Spruce for 6 yds to the Cal 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:43
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
76.8%
Sefo Liufau pass complete to Nelson Spruce for no gain to the Cal 40Similar
Q3 4:43
2ND & 10
OPP 40
0
76.8%
Sefo Liufau pass incomplete to Donovan Lee, broken up by Darius AllensworthSimilar
Q3 4:43
3RD & 10
OPP 40
+22
78.2%
Sefo Liufau pass complete to Michael Adkins II for 22 yds to the Cal 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:43
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+6
74.9%
Michael Adkins II run for 6 yds to the Cal 12Similar
Q3 0:52
2ND & 4
OPP 12
+12
54.6%
Sefo Liufau pass complete to Nelson Spruce for 12 yds for a TD, (Will Oliver KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 22PUNT
6 plays · -5 yds · 0:4965% → 61%
Q3 0:49
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+2
64.5%
Daniel Lasco run for 2 yds to the Cal 14Similar
Q3 0:49
2ND & 8
OWN 14
-5
64.3%
CALIFORNIA Penalty, false start (Stephen Anderson) to the Cal 9Similar
Q3 0:49
2ND & 13
OWN 9
0
63.9%
Jared Goff pass incomplete to Maurice HarrisSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 13
OWN 9
-2
61.7%
Jared Goff pass complete to Khalfani Muhammad for a loss of 2 yards to the Cal 7Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 15
OWN 7
+2
60.7%
Cole Leininger punt for 49 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Colo 46 , Nelson Spruce returns for 2 yds to the Colo 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 23MISSED FG
8 plays · 26 yds · 2:0544% → 42%
Q4 14:15
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+11
56.3%
Sefo Liufau pass complete to Nelson Spruce for 11 yds to the Cal 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:15
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+3
55.6%
Christian Powell run for 3 yds to the Cal 40Similar
Q4 14:15
2ND & 7
OPP 40
0
55.7%
Sefo Liufau pass incomplete to Bryce BoboSimilar
Q4 14:15
3RD & 7
OPP 40
+9
56.3%
Sefo Liufau pass complete to D.D. Goodson for 9 yds to the Cal 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:15
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+3
54.1%
Christian Powell run for 3 yds to the Cal 28Similar
Q4 14:15
2ND & 7
OPP 28
0
53.7%
Sefo Liufau pass incomplete to Nelson Spruce, broken up by Cameron WalkerSimilar
Q4 14:15
3RD & 7
OPP 28
0
56.3%
Sefo Liufau pass incomplete to Christian PowellSimilar
Q4 12:10
4TH & 7
OPP 28
+45
57.6%
Will Oliver 45 Yard Field Goal MissedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 24MISSED FG
12 plays · 48 yds · 4:5864% → 60%
Q4 12:10
1ST & 10
OWN 28
-1
63.7%
Jared Goff run for a loss of 1 yard to the Cal 27 Jared Goff fumbled, recovered by Cal Jared GoffSimilar
Q4 12:10
2ND & 11
OWN 27
+3
62.9%
Jared Goff pass complete to Trevor Davis for 3 yds to the Cal 30Similar
Q4 12:10
3RD & 8
OWN 30
+13
61.3%
Jared Goff pass complete to Stephen Anderson for 13 yds to the Cal 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:10
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+6
66.8%
Daniel Lasco run for 6 yds to the Cal 49Similar
Q4 12:10
2ND & 4
OWN 49
+12
67.7%
Jared Goff pass complete to Stephen Anderson for 12 yds to the Colo 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:10
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+7
68.3%
Daniel Lasco run for 7 yds to the Colo 32Similar
Q4 12:10
2ND & 3
OPP 32
+8
69.5%
Khalfani Muhammad run for 8 yds to the Colo 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:10
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+1
69.5%
Khalfani Muhammad run for 1 yd to the Colo 23Similar
Q4 8:24
2ND & 9
OPP 23
+4
67.5%
Khalfani Muhammad run for 4 yds to the Colo 19Similar
Q4 8:24
3RD & 5
OPP 19
-5
65.6%
Jared Goff sacked by Josh Tupou for a loss of 5 yards to the Colo 24Similar
Q4 7:12
4TH & 10
OPP 24
+42
60.0%
James Langford 42 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 25TD
10 plays · 76 yds · 3:4947% → 90%
Q4 7:12
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+7
53.4%
Sefo Liufau pass complete to Tyler McCulloch for 7 yds to the Colo 31Similar
Q4 7:12
2ND & 3
OWN 31
+9
50.4%
Tony Jones run for 9 yds to the Colo 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:12
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+7
49.5%
Sefo Liufau pass complete to Donovan Lee for 7 yds to the Colo 47Similar
Q4 7:12
2ND & 3
OWN 47
+6
47.9%
Sefo Liufau pass complete to Donovan Lee for 6 yds to the Cal 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:12
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+3
47.3%
Sefo Liufau run for 3 yds to the Cal 44Similar
Q4 7:12
2ND & 7
OPP 44
+14
47.5%
Sefo Liufau pass complete to Nelson Spruce for 14 yds to the Cal 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:12
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+5
45.2%
Sefo Liufau pass complete to D.D. Goodson for 5 yds to the Cal 25Similar
Q4 7:12
2ND & 5
OPP 25
+15
44.5%
Tony Jones run for 15 yds to the Cal 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:12
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+4
44.5%
Christian Powell run for 4 yds to the Cal 6Similar
Q4 3:23
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
9.8%
Sefo Liufau pass complete to Nelson Spruce for 6 yds for a TD, (Will Oliver KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 26TD
3 plays · 75 yds · 0:2021% → 56%
Q4 3:16
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
21.3%
Jared Goff pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:56
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+75
56.4%
Jared Goff pass complete to Stephen Anderson for 75 yds for a TD, (James Langford KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 27INT
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0052% → 52%
Q4 2:56
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
48.2%
Sefo Liufau pass intercepted Jake Kearney return for no gain to the Colo 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 28TD
5 plays · 37 yds · 0:2264% → 94%
Q4 2:51
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+2
64.1%
Daniel Lasco run for 2 yds to the Colo 35Similar
Q4 2:43
2ND & 8
OPP 35
0
66.0%
Jared Goff pass incomplete to Bryce Treggs, broken up by John WalkerSimilar
Q4 2:43
3RD & 8
OPP 35
-5
63.8%
CALIFORNIA Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Colo 40Similar
Q4 2:29
3RD & 13
OPP 40
+40
94.3%
Jared Goff pass complete to Chris Harper for 40 yds for a TD, (James Langford KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 29TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 2:0811% → 61%
Q4 2:29
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
89.3%
Sefo Liufau pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:29
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+12
89.5%
Sefo Liufau pass complete to Nelson Spruce for 12 yds to the Colo 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:29
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
87.7%
Sefo Liufau pass incomplete to Nelson SpruceSimilar
Q4 2:29
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+9
87.9%
Sefo Liufau run for 9 yds to the Colo 46Similar
Q4 2:29
3RD & 1
OWN 46
+12
86.6%
Tony Jones run for 12 yds to the Cal 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:27
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
88.0%
Sefo Liufau pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:27
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+6
88.7%
Sefo Liufau pass complete to D.D. Goodson for 6 yds to the Cal 36Similar
Q4 1:12
3RD & 4
OPP 36
+1
89.0%
Tony Jones run for 1 yd to the Cal 35Similar
Q4 1:12
4TH & 3
OPP 35
+5
90.7%
Sefo Liufau pass complete to Nelson Spruce for 5 yds to the Cal 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:21
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+30
38.8%
Sefo Liufau pass complete to Bryce Bobo for 30 yds for a TD, (Will Oliver KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 30POSSESSION (FOR OT DRIVES)
7 plays · 30 yds · 0:2059% → 64%
Q4 0:21
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
59.3%
Jared Goff pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:21
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+10
59.2%
Goff, Jared pass incomplete, PENALTY COLO holding (Crawley, Ken) 10 yards to the CAL45, 1ST DOWN CAL, NO PLAY. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:21
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
63.2%
Jared Goff pass incomplete to Trevor DavisSimilar
Q4 0:21
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+9
61.5%
Jared Goff pass complete to Trevor Davis for 9 yds to the Colo 46Similar
Q4 0:01
3RD & 1
OPP 46
-11
64.4%
Goff, Jared pass complete to Rubenzer, Luke for 11 yards to the COLO35, PENALTY CAL illegal forward pass (Rubenzer, Luke) 11 yards to the COLO35, NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 31TD
3 plays · 25 yds · 0:0065% → 85%
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
64.7%
Daniel Lasco run for no gain to the Colo 25Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 25
0
64.5%
Jared Goff pass incomplete to Stephen AndersonSimilar
OT 0:00
3RD & 10
OPP 25
+25
85.0%
Jared Goff pass complete to Bryce Treggs for 25 yds for a TD, (James Langford KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 32TD
1 play · 25 yds · 0:0058% → 58%
OT 0:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 25
+25
41.6%
Sefo Liufau pass complete to Nelson Spruce for 25 yds for a TD, (Will Oliver KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 33DOWNS
10 plays · 21 yds · 0:0060% → 52%
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+3
40.5%
Tony Jones run for 3 yds to the Cal 22Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & 7
OPP 22
+5
40.5%
Sefo Liufau pass complete to Nelson Spruce for 5 yds to the Cal 17Similar
OT 0:00
3RD & 2
OPP 17
+1
42.7%
Sefo Liufau pass complete to Nelson Spruce for 1 yd to the Cal 16Similar
OT 0:00
4TH & 1
OPP 16
+2
47.8%
George Frazier run for 2 yds to the Cal 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+12
40.5%
Sefo Liufau pass complete to Kyle Slavin for 12 yds to the Cal 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
OT 0:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
0
40.6%
Tony Jones run for no gain to the Cal 2Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
40.5%
Sefo Liufau run for 1 yd to the Cal 1Similar
OT 0:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
42.6%
George Frazier run for no gain to the Cal 1Similar
OT 0:00
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
-3
47.8%
Sefo Liufau run for a loss of 3 yards to the Cal 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 34FG
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:0065% → 79%
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+2
64.7%
Daniel Lasco run for 2 yds to the Colo 23Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & 8
OPP 23
0
64.7%
Jared Goff pass incomplete to Bryce TreggsSimilar
OT 0:00
3RD & 8
OPP 23
+7
62.2%
Daniel Lasco run for 7 yds to the Colo 16Similar
OT 0:00
4TH & 1
OPP 16
+34
78.8%
James Langford 34 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 0:21
Sefo Liufau pass complete to Bryce Bobo for 30 yds for a TD, (Will Oliver KICK)
-51.9
TD · OT 0:00
Sefo Liufau pass complete to Nelson Spruce for 25 yds for a TD, (Will Oliver KICK)
-43.5
TD · Q4 2:56
Jared Goff pass complete to Stephen Anderson for 75 yds for a TD, (James Langford KICK)
+35.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com