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CIN

Cincinnati 23 at Colorado 34

COLO
2024 · Week 9 · Oct 26, 2024 · Folsom Field
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Win probability · COLO
modelCOLO aheadCIN aheadconfidence bandkey playCOLO scoreCIN score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDFGTDTDFGTDFGEnd of GameFG+0.2COLO 98.5%Alejandro Mata 47 yd FG GOODAWAY 23 - HOME 34 · Q4 1:39
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 1:39 · Alejandro Mata 47 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+31.0+15.50−15.5−31.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 152Home team on offense+29.4Pregame prior+0.5Garbage-time factor+14.8Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+16.5Score differential+6.0Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+7.8
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 0:00: Shedeur Sanders run for 4 yds for a TD (Alejandro Mata KICK) — COLO win probability +4.8 pts (now 73%) (top driver: COLO has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 9:31: Evan Pryor run for 13 yds for a TD (Nathan Hawks KICK) — CIN win probability +7.8 pts (now 38%) (top driver: CIN has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 0:03: Shedeur Sanders pass complete to Travis Hunter for 34 yds for a TD (Alejandro Mata KICK) — COLO win probability +7.6 pts (now 79%) (top driver: COLO has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 5:41: Isaiah Augustave run for 7 yds for a TD (Alejandro Mata KICK) — COLO win probability +11.5 pts (now 93%) (top driver: COLO has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 3:51: Brendan Sorsby pass complete to Joe Royer for 6 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed) — CIN win probability +8.2 pts (now 17%) (top driver: CIN has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
COLO made the numbers' call on 2 of 5CIN made the numbers' call on 7 of 8
  1. Q1 14:26CIN 4th & 10 at CIN 25, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 32.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.6%−0.1
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.8%
    average punt
  2. Q2 3:28COLO 4th & 11 at CIN 11, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 64.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.0%−0.9
    22% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    63.9%
    87% to make
    Punt
    59.0%−4.9
    average punt
  3. Q2 0:33CIN 4th & 1 at COLO 46, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 35.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    35.3%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    34.3%−1.0
    23% to make
    Punt
    34.2%−1.1
    average punt
  4. Q2 0:31CIN 4th & 1 at COLO 46, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 35.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    35.3%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    34.3%−1.0
    23% to make
    Punt
    34.2%−1.1
    average punt
  5. Q3 11:53COLO 4th & 3 at CIN 44, up 10
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.2 ptsPunted · 78.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.5%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    76.9%−2.6
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    78.3%−1.2
    average punt
  6. Q3 8:51CIN 4th & 2 at CIN 29, down 10
    Close callPunted · 18.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.4%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.4%−0.9
    average punt
  7. Q3 4:30CIN 4th & 14 at CIN 25, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.0%−2.3
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.3%
    average punt
  8. Q3 0:24COLO 4th & 1 at CIN 39, up 17
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.6 ptsPunted · 94.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.2%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    92.5%−1.7
    36% to make
    PuntTheir call
    92.5%−1.6
    average punt
  9. Q4 9:20CIN 4th & 12 at COLO 15, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 4.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.1%−1.0
    21% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    4.0%
    83% to make
    Punt
    0.6%−3.4
    average punt
  10. Q4 7:30COLO 4th & 1 at COLO 34, up 14
    Close callPunted · 95.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    95.4%−0.7
    average punt
  11. Q4 7:30CIN 4th & 1 at CIN 28, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 7.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    7.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    5.4%−1.6
    average punt
  12. Q4 1:39COLO 4th & 9 at CIN 29, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 95.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.0%−0.3
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    95.4%
    58% to make
    Punt
    93.4%−2.0
    average punt
  13. Q4 0:49CIN 4th & 6 at CIN 29, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 4.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    3.9%
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    3.5%−0.4
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
COLO made the numbers' call on 4 of 4CIN made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 9:32COLO Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    68.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    68.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 6:01CIN Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    33.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    33.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 0:00COLO Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    69.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    69.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 9:31CIN Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    34.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    34.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 0:03COLO Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    77.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    77.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 5:41COLO Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    89.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    89.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 3:51CIN Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · failed
    Kick
    7.5%−0.7
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    8.2%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
CINDrive 1PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:3431% → 31%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
69.0%
Brendan Sorsby pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
69.0%
Corey Kiner run for no gain to the CIN 25Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
69.0%
Brendan Sorsby pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:26
4TH & 10
OWN 25
+13
69.0%
Mason Fletcher punt for 52 yds , Jimmy Horn Jr. returns for 13 yds to the COLO 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 2TD
11 plays · 64 yds · 4:5469% → 71%
Q1 14:26
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+4
69.0%
Isaiah Augustave run for 4 yds to the COLO 40Similar
Q1 14:26
2ND & 6
OWN 40
+4
69.0%
Isaiah Augustave run for 4 yds to the COLO 44Similar
Q1 14:26
3RD & 2
OWN 44
+2
69.0%
Shedeur Sanders run for 2 yds to the COLO 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:26
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+7
69.0%
Isaiah Augustave run for 7 yds to the CIN 47Similar
Q1 14:26
2ND & 3
OPP 47
-10
69.0%
Shedeur Sanders sacked by Jared Bartlett for a loss of 10 yards to the COLO 43Similar
Q1 11:46
3RD & 13
OWN 43
-15
68.6%
Colorado Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Jimmy Horn Jr.) to the CIN 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:46
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+12
69.1%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to LaJohntay Wester for 12 yds to the CIN 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:46
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
0
69.1%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to Jimmy Horn Jr. for no gain to the CIN 3Similar
Q1 11:46
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+9
69.1%
Dallan Hayden run for 9 yds to the CIN 16Similar
Q1 11:46
2ND & 1
OPP 16
+1
69.1%
Dallan Hayden run for 1 yd to the CIN 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:32
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
70.7%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to Travis Hunter for 3 yds for a TD (Alejandro Mata KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 3TD
8 plays · 74 yds · 3:2430% → 34%
Q1 9:25
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
70.0%
Brendan Sorsby pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:25
2ND & 10
OWN 26
+10
70.1%
Corey Kiner run for 10 yds to the CIN 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:25
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+40
69.9%
Brendan Sorsby pass complete to Evan Pryor for 40 yds to the COLO 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:25
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+2
69.3%
Brendan Sorsby run for 2 yds to the COLO 22Similar
Q1 9:25
2ND & 8
OPP 22
-5
69.3%
Cincinnati Penalty, False Start (Gavin Gerhardt) to the COLO 27Similar
Q1 9:25
2ND & 13
OPP 27
+17
69.5%
Brendan Sorsby pass complete to Joe Royer for 17 yds to the COLO 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:25
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+4
69.3%
Barry Jackson Jr. run for 4 yds to the COLO 6Similar
Q1 6:01
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
66.4%
Brendan Sorsby pass complete to Tony Johnson for 6 yds for a TD (Nathan Hawks KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 4TD
13 plays · 90 yds · 5:5468% → 73%
Q1 5:54
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+3
67.5%
Isaiah Augustave run for 3 yds to the COLO 13Similar
Q1 5:54
2ND & 7
OWN 13
+15
67.5%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to Jimmy Horn Jr. for 15 yds to the COLO 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:54
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+2
67.7%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to Isaiah Augustave for 2 yds to the COLO 30Similar
Q1 5:54
2ND & 8
OWN 30
+9
67.7%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to Travis Hunter for 9 yds to the COLO 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:54
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+1
68.0%
Isaiah Augustave run for 1 yd to the COLO 40Similar
Q1 5:54
2ND & 9
OWN 40
+1
68.0%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to LaJohntay Wester for 1 yd to the COLO 41Similar
Q1 5:54
3RD & 8
OWN 41
+9
67.6%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to Jimmy Horn Jr. for 9 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:54
1ST & 10
50
+15
68.5%
Cincinnati Penalty, Roughing the Passer on PHILLIPS, Eric enforced (Eric Phillips) to the CIN 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:54
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+3
68.7%
Dallan Hayden run for 3 yds to the CIN 14Similar
Q1 5:54
2ND & 7
OPP 14
+5
68.7%
Dallan Hayden run for 5 yds to the CIN 9Similar
Q1 5:54
3RD & 2
OPP 9
+1
68.4%
Dallan Hayden run for 1 yd to the CIN 8Similar
Q1 5:54
4TH & 1
OPP 8
+4
68.0%
HAYDEN, Dallan rush up the middle for a gain of 1 yard to the CINCY7 (PEEK JR., Antwan). PENALTY Before the snap, CINCY Illegal Substitution enforced half the distance from the goal, 4 yards from the CINCY8 to the CINCY4 and results in a 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 0:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
72.8%
Shedeur Sanders run for 4 yds for a TD (Alejandro Mata KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 5TD
12 plays · 72 yds · 5:2229% → 38%
Q2 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+4
71.0%
Corey Kiner run for 4 yds to the CIN 32Similar
Q2 14:53
2ND & 6
OWN 32
+8
70.8%
Brendan Sorsby pass complete to Francis Sherman for 8 yds Francis Sherman fumbled, recovered by CIN for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+1
70.5%
Corey Kiner run for 1 yd to the CIN 41Similar
Q2 14:53
2ND & 9
OWN 41
0
70.7%
Brendan Sorsby pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:53
3RD & 9
OWN 41
-5
71.0%
Cincinnati Penalty, False Start (Phillip Wilder) to the CIN 36Similar
Q2 14:53
3RD & 14
OWN 36
+21
71.7%
Brendan Sorsby run for 21 yds to the COLO 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:53
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+2
69.9%
Corey Kiner run for 2 yds to the COLO 41Similar
Q2 14:53
2ND & 8
OPP 41
+7
69.9%
Evan Pryor run for 7 yds to the COLO 34Similar
Q2 14:53
3RD & 1
OPP 34
+6
69.8%
Corey Kiner run for 6 yds to the COLO 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:53
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
69.1%
Brendan Sorsby pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:57
2ND & 10
OPP 28
+42
69.6%
SORSBY, Brendan pass deep to the left intercepted by HODGE, Preston at the COLO6 intended for JOHNSON, Tony. Hodge return for 42 yards to the COLO48 (WILLIAMS, John), clock 09:57. PENALTY COLO Pass Interference on HODGE, Preston enforced half the distance from the goal, 15 yards to the COLO13 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 9:31
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+13
61.8%
Evan Pryor run for 13 yds for a TD (Nathan Hawks KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 6FG
13 plays · 64 yds · 6:0366% → 68%
Q2 9:31
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
66.2%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to Dallan Hayden for a loss of 5 yards to the COLO 20Similar
Q2 9:31
2ND & 15
OWN 20
+16
66.0%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to Drelon Miller for 16 yds to the COLO 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:31
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+6
66.9%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to Travis Hunter for 6 yds to the COLO 42Similar
Q2 9:31
2ND & 4
OWN 42
+9
67.8%
Isaiah Augustave run for 9 yds to the CIN 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:31
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+5
68.1%
Isaiah Augustave run for 5 yds to the CIN 44Similar
Q2 9:31
2ND & 5
OPP 44
+3
68.3%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to LaJohntay Wester for 3 yds to the CIN 41Similar
Q2 9:31
3RD & 2
OPP 41
+2
67.9%
Isaiah Augustave run for 2 yds to the CIN 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:31
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+2
68.3%
Dallan Hayden run for 2 yds to the CIN 37Similar
Q2 9:31
2ND & 8
OPP 37
+29
68.2%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to Travis Hunter for 29 yds to the CIN 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:31
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
-3
68.7%
TEAM run for a loss of 3 yards to the CIN 11 fumbled, recovered by COLO Shedeur Sanders S. Sanders return for 0 ydsSimilar
Q2 9:31
2ND & GOAL
OPP 11
0
68.7%
Shedeur Sanders pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:31
3RD & GOAL
OPP 11
0
67.9%
Shedeur Sanders pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:28
4TH & GOAL
OPP 11
+28
68.0%
Alejandro Mata 28 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 7DOWNS
8 plays · 29 yds · 2:5732% → 35%
Q2 3:28
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
67.6%
Corey Kiner run for 6 yds to the CIN 31Similar
Q2 3:28
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+14
66.7%
Brendan Sorsby pass complete to Tony Johnson for 14 yds to the CIN 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-3
64.4%
Corey Kiner run for a loss of 3 yards to the CIN 42Similar
Q2 2:00
2ND & 13
OWN 42
+6
66.0%
Corey Kiner run for 6 yds to the CIN 48Similar
Q2 2:00
3RD & 7
OWN 48
+6
64.7%
Brendan Sorsby run for 6 yds to the COLO 46Similar
Q2 0:33
4TH & 1
OPP 46
0
64.7%
Brendan Sorsby run for no gain to the COLO 46Similar
Q2 0:31
4TH & 1
OPP 46
0
64.7%
Brendan Sorsby run for no gain to the COLO 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 8TD
6 plays · 54 yds · 0:2170% → 79%
Q2 0:24
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+6
70.2%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to Dallan Hayden for 6 yds to the CIN 48Similar
Q2 0:24
2ND & 4
OPP 48
0
70.6%
Shedeur Sanders pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:24
3RD & 4
OPP 48
+14
69.6%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to Travis Hunter for 14 yds to the CIN 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:24
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
71.1%
Shedeur Sanders pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:03
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+34
78.7%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to Travis Hunter for 34 yds for a TD (Alejandro Mata KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 9PUNT
10 plays · 31 yds · 3:0778% → 79%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
78.4%
Isaiah Augustave run for 3 yds to the COLO 28Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+7
78.4%
Isaiah Augustave run for 7 yds to the COLO 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
78.6%
Isaiah Augustave run for 2 yds to the COLO 37Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 37
+6
78.9%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to Will Sheppard for 6 yds to the COLO 43Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 2
OWN 43
+6
78.7%
Isaiah Augustave run for 6 yds to the COLO 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:45
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+1
80.1%
Shedeur Sanders run for 1 yd to the 50 yard line Shedeur Sanders fumbled, recovered by COLO , return to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 12:45
2ND & 9
50
0
80.1%
Shedeur Sanders pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:45
3RD & 9
50
+6
79.0%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to Travis Hunter for 6 yds to the CIN 44Similar
Q3 11:53
4TH & 3
OPP 44
0
78.7%
Mark Vassett punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Jamoi Mayes at the CIN 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 10PUNT
6 plays · 23 yds · 3:0221% → 19%
Q3 11:53
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+7
79.2%
Corey Kiner run for 7 yds to the CIN 13Similar
Q3 11:53
2ND & 3
OWN 13
+8
79.1%
Brendan Sorsby run for 8 yds to the CIN 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:53
1ST & 10
OWN 21
-1
78.8%
Corey Kiner run for a loss of 1 yard to the CIN 20Similar
Q3 11:53
2ND & 11
OWN 20
+9
79.1%
Brendan Sorsby pass complete to Jamoi Mayes for 9 yds to the CIN 29Similar
Q3 11:53
3RD & 2
OWN 29
0
78.7%
Brendan Sorsby pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:51
4TH & 2
OWN 29
+13
80.7%
Mason Fletcher punt for 46 yds , LaJohntay Wester returns for 13 yds to the COLO 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 11TD
7 plays · 62 yds · 3:1081% → 93%
Q3 8:51
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+1
80.9%
Isaiah Augustave run for 1 yd to the COLO 39Similar
Q3 8:51
2ND & 9
OWN 39
+6
80.8%
Dallan Hayden run for 6 yds to the COLO 45Similar
Q3 8:51
3RD & 3
OWN 45
+10
80.2%
SANDERS, Shedeur pass deep to the right incomplete intended for SHEPPARD, Will thrown to the CINCY24. PENALTY CINCY Holding on ARNOLD, Ormanie enforced 10 yards from the COLO45 to the CINCY45 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 8:51
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+28
81.7%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to LaJohntay Wester for 28 yds to the CIN 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:51
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+6
81.8%
Isaiah Augustave run for 6 yds to the CIN 11Similar
Q3 8:51
2ND & 4
OPP 11
+4
81.8%
Shedeur Sanders run for 4 yds to the CIN 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:41
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
93.3%
Isaiah Augustave run for 7 yds for a TD (Alejandro Mata KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 12PUNT
4 plays · -4 yds · 1:059% → 8%
Q3 5:35
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
90.8%
Brendan Sorsby pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:35
2ND & 10
OWN 29
0
91.2%
Brendan Sorsby pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:35
3RD & 10
OWN 29
-4
91.4%
Brendan Sorsby sacked by Cam'Ron Silmon-Craig for a loss of 4 yards to the CIN 25Similar
Q3 4:30
4TH & 14
OWN 25
-5
92.3%
Mason Fletcher punt for 37 yds , Jimmy Horn Jr. returns for a loss of 5 yards to the COLO 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 13PUNT
8 plays · 28 yds · 4:0693% → 97%
Q3 4:30
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+3
93.2%
Isaiah Augustave run for 3 yds to the COLO 36Similar
Q3 4:30
2ND & 7
OWN 36
+5
93.3%
Isaiah Augustave run for 5 yds to the COLO 41Similar
Q3 4:30
3RD & 2
OWN 41
+11
93.3%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to Drelon Miller for 11 yds to the CIN 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:30
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
93.7%
Dallan Hayden run for no gain to the CIN 48Similar
Q3 4:30
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+7
93.6%
Dallan Hayden run for 7 yds to the CIN 41Similar
Q3 4:30
3RD & 3
OPP 41
+2
93.5%
Dallan Hayden run for 2 yds to the CIN 39Similar
Q3 0:24
4TH & 1
OPP 39
0
96.6%
Mark Vassett punt for 29 yds, downed at the CIN 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 14FG
16 plays · 75 yds · 5:406% → 9%
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+7
94.1%
Corey Kiner run for 7 yds to the CIN 17Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 3
OWN 17
+5
94.0%
Corey Kiner run for 5 yds to the CIN 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+13
94.0%
Corey Kiner run for 13 yds to the CIN 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+15
93.5%
Colorado Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Shilo Sanders) to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
50
+7
93.4%
Corey Kiner run for 7 yds to the COLO 43Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 3
OPP 43
+4
92.9%
Evan Pryor run for 4 yds to the COLO 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
93.3%
Evan Pryor run for no gain to the COLO 39Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+12
93.3%
Brendan Sorsby run for 12 yds to the COLO 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+1
92.3%
Evan Pryor run for 1 yd to the COLO 26Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 26
+5
92.5%
Brendan Sorsby pass complete to Corey Kiner for 5 yds to the COLO 21Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 4
OPP 21
-5
92.8%
Cincinnati Penalty, False Start (John Williams) to the COLO 26Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 9
OPP 26
+13
93.2%
Colorado Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Anquin Barnes Jr.) to the COLO 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+2
92.3%
Brendan Sorsby run for 2 yds to the COLO 11Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 11
0
92.3%
Brendan Sorsby pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 8
OPP 11
-4
92.8%
Brendan Sorsby pass complete to Corey Kiner for a loss of 4 yards to the COLO 15Similar
Q4 9:20
4TH & 12
OPP 15
+32
91.2%
Nathan Hawks 32 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 15PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:5097% → 97%
Q4 9:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
97.0%
Isaiah Augustave run for a loss of 1 yard to the COLO 24Similar
Q4 9:20
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+7
97.0%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to Jimmy Horn Jr. for 7 yds to the COLO 31Similar
Q4 9:20
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+3
97.1%
Isaiah Augustave run for 3 yds to the COLO 34Similar
Q4 7:30
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
97.2%
Mark Vassett punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Jamoi Mayes at the CIN 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 16TD
12 plays · 81 yds · 3:397% → 17%
Q4 7:30
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+1
92.7%
Brendan Sorsby run for 1 yd to the CIN 20Similar
Q4 7:30
2ND & 9
OWN 20
0
92.7%
Brendan Sorsby pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 7:30
3RD & 9
OWN 20
+8
92.9%
Brendan Sorsby pass complete to Joe Royer for 8 yds to the CIN 28Similar
Q4 7:30
4TH & 1
OWN 28
+1
92.3%
Corey Kiner run for 1 yd to the CIN 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:30
1ST & 10
OWN 29
-10
92.1%
SORSBY, Brendan pass deep to the right incomplete intended for HENDERSON, Xzavier thrown to the CINCY46; QB hurried by GREEN, B.J.. PENALTY CINCY Holding on WILDER, Phillip enforced 10 yards from the CINCY29 to the CINCY19 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 7:30
1ST & 20
OWN 19
+22
92.8%
Brendan Sorsby pass complete to Tony Johnson for 22 yds to the CIN 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:30
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+19
91.7%
Brendan Sorsby pass complete to Joe Royer for 19 yds to the COLO 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:30
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+11
91.6%
Brendan Sorsby pass complete to Xzavier Henderson for 11 yds to the COLO 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:30
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
90.5%
Brendan Sorsby pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 7:30
2ND & 10
OPP 29
0
91.0%
Brendan Sorsby pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 7:30
3RD & 10
OPP 29
+23
91.5%
Corey Kiner run for 23 yds to the COLO 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:51
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
83.3%
Brendan Sorsby pass complete to Joe Royer for 6 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 17FG
10 plays · 60 yds · 2:1193% → 99%
Q4 3:50
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+34
93.4%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to Travis Hunter for 34 yds to the COLO 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:50
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+12
94.3%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to LaJohntay Wester for 12 yds to the CIN 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:00
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+13
97.8%
Isaiah Augustave run for 13 yds to the CIN 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:55
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+5
98.3%
Isaiah Augustave run for 5 yds to the CIN 25Similar
Q4 1:51
2ND & 5
OPP 25
-4
98.3%
Isaiah Augustave run for a loss of 4 yards to the CIN 29Similar
Q4 1:51
3RD & 9
OPP 29
0
98.3%
Shedeur Sanders pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:39
4TH & 9
OPP 29
+47
98.5%
Alejandro Mata 47 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 18DOWNS
7 plays · 4 yds · 0:503% → 2%
Q4 1:39
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-10
96.8%
Cincinnati Penalty, Illegal Block (Gavin Gerhardt) to the CIN 16Similar
Q4 1:17
1ST & 19
OWN 16
+6
97.6%
Brendan Sorsby pass complete to Corey Kiner for 6 yds to the CIN 22Similar
Q4 1:17
2ND & 13
OWN 22
+12
97.6%
Brendan Sorsby pass complete to Tony Johnson for 12 yds to the CIN 34Similar
Q4 1:17
3RD & 1
OWN 34
0
97.4%
Brendan Sorsby pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:17
4TH & 1
OWN 34
-5
97.5%
Cincinnati Penalty, False Start (Joe Royer) to the CIN 29Similar
Q4 0:49
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
97.8%
Brendan Sorsby pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 19END OF GAME
2 plays · -2 yds · 0:4999% → 99%
Q4 0:49
1ST & 10
OPP 29
-1
98.9%
[NHSG] Kneel down by SANDERS, Shedeur at CINCY30 (team loss of 1).Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 11
OPP 30
-1
99.0%
[NHSG] Kneel down by SANDERS, Shedeur at CINCY31 (team loss of 1), clock 00:00.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 5:41
Isaiah Augustave run for 7 yds for a TD (Alejandro Mata KICK)
+11.5
TD · Q4 3:51
Brendan Sorsby pass complete to Joe Royer for 6 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)
-8.2
TD · Q2 9:31
Evan Pryor run for 13 yds for a TD (Nathan Hawks KICK)
-7.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com