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COLO

Colorado 48 at UCF 21

UCF
2024 · Week 5 · Sep 28, 2024 · FBC Mortgage Stadium
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Win probability · UCF
modelUCF aheadCOLO aheadconfidence bandkey playUCF scoreCOLO score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDFGFGTDTDTDTDEnd of GameFG-1.8UCF 49.0%Alejandro Mata 36 yd FG GOODAWAY 24 - HOME 14 · Q2 0:42
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 0:42 · Alejandro Mata 36 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+57.5+28.80−28.8−57.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 82Home team on offense−12.2Pregame prior+15.2Score differential−5.2Garbage-time factor−2.4Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.9Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−3.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 8:41: KJ Jefferson run for 7 yds for a TD (Colton Boomer KICK) — UCF win probability +10.1 pts (now 67%) (top driver: UCF has the ball).
  2. FG · Q2 0:00: Alejandro Mata 46 yd FG GOOD — COLO win probability +14.1 pts (now 68%) (top driver: COLO has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 9:11: Micah Welch run for 1 yd for a TD (Alejandro Mata KICK) — COLO win probability +19.1 pts (now 86%) (top driver: COLO has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 3:58: KJ Jefferson pass complete to Xavier Townsend for 15 yds for a TD (Colton Boomer KICK) — UCF win probability +19.8 pts (now 36%) (top driver: UCF has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 1:32: Shedeur Sanders pass complete to LaJohntay Wester for 10 yds for a TD (Alejandro Mata KICK) — COLO win probability +14.1 pts (now 95%) (top driver: COLO has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UCF made the numbers' call on 4 of 8COLO made the numbers' call on 4 of 5
  1. Q1 12:33UCF 4th & 1 at COLO 20, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 79.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    79.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    79.6%−0.1
    75% to make
    Punt
    79.2%−0.5
    average punt
  2. Q2 14:31UCF 4th & 12 at UCF 24, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 69.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.2%−1.2
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    70.4%
    average punt
  3. Q2 5:52COLO 4th & 6 at UCF 36, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 38.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    39.0%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    38.5%−0.5
    42% to make
    Punt
    38.0%−0.9
    average punt
  4. Q2 3:48UCF 4th & 13 at UCF 47, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 60.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.8%−1.3
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    60.1%
    average punt
  5. Q2 0:42COLO 4th & 1 at UCF 18, up 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 46.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    46.0%−0.9
    79% to make
    Punt
    40.6%−6.3
    average punt
  6. Q2 0:22UCF 4th & 11 at UCF 15, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 49.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.2%−2.7
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    48.9%
    average punt
  7. Q3 10:53UCF 4th & 10 at COLO 37, down 13
    Close callKicked a field goal · 43.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.0%
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    43.0%−<0.1
    40% to make
    Punt
    42.8%−0.2
    average punt
  8. Q3 5:18COLO 4th & 19 at UCF 47, up 20
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 90.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.5%−3.7
    11% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    92.2%
    average punt
  9. Q4 13:49COLO 4th & 18 at COLO 29, up 20
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 94.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.7%−2.2
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    94.9%
    average punt
  10. Q4 12:02UCF 4th & 9 at COLO 45, down 20
    Close callWent for it · 4.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    4.5%−0.2
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    4.1%−0.7
    25% to make
    Punt
    4.8%
    average punt
  11. Q4 8:32UCF 4th & 4 at COLO 4, down 20
    Close callWent for it · 4.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    5.0%−0.2
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    5.1%
    93% to make
    Punt
    1.3%−3.9
    average punt
  12. Q4 7:01COLO 4th & 4 at COLO 15, up 20
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 97.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.2%−0.2
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    97.3%
    average punt
  13. Q4 1:46UCF 4th & 14 at COLO 33, down 27
    Close callWent for it · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.2%−0.2
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    0.3%
    49% to make
    Punt
    0.1%−0.2
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UCF made the numbers' call on 3 of 3COLO made the numbers' call on 5 of 6
  1. Q1 3:49COLO Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    25.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    25.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 3:38UCF Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    77.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    76.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 0:10COLO Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    28.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    28.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 12:21COLO Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    36.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    35.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 8:41UCF Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    64.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    64.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 9:11COLO Touchdown, up 19 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    75.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    75.4%−0.2
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 3:58UCF Touchdown, down 14 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    25.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    25.3%−0.2
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 1:32COLO Touchdown, up 19 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    88.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    88.3%−0.2
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 5:05COLO Touchdown, up 26 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.8%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.8%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
COLODrive 1INT
3 plays · -10 yds · 0:4722% → 22%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-9
78.5%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to Drelon Miller for a loss of 9 yards to the COLO 16Similar
Q1 14:50
2ND & 19
OWN 16
-1
78.5%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to Jimmy Horn Jr. for a loss of 1 yard to the COLO 15Similar
Q1 14:13
3RD & 20
OWN 15
0
78.4%
Shedeur Sanders pass intercepted Deshawn Pace return for no gain to the COLO 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 2INT
10 plays · 25 yds · 13:3078% → 76%
Q1 13:31
2ND & 11
OPP 30
+10
78.3%
Xavier Townsend run for 10 yds to the COLO 20Similar
Q1 13:05
3RD & 1
OPP 20
0
78.2%
KJ Jefferson run for no gain to the COLO 20Similar
Q1 12:33
4TH & 1
OPP 20
+5
78.1%
RJ Harvey run for 5 yds to the COLO 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:50
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+8
78.1%
RJ Harvey run for 8 yds to the COLO 7Similar
Q1 11:15
2ND & 2
OPP 7
0
78.0%
KJ Jefferson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:12
3RD & 2
OPP 7
+2
77.9%
RJ Harvey run for 2 yds to the COLO 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:48
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
-1
77.9%
KJ Jefferson run for a loss of 1 yard to the COLO 6Similar
Q1 9:58
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+1
77.8%
KJ Jefferson run for 1 yd to the COLO 5Similar
Q1 9:20
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
0
77.6%
KJ Jefferson pass intercepted, touchback. Preston Hodge return for no gainSimilar
Q1 0:01
1ST & 10
OPP 29
-1
76.1%
RJ Harvey run for a loss of 1 yard to the COLO 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 3TD
12 plays · 80 yds · 5:2823% → 29%
Q1 9:17
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
77.0%
Dallan Hayden run for no gain to the COLO 20Similar
Q1 8:46
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+13
76.8%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to Travis Hunter for 13 yds to the COLO 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:25
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+5
76.6%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to Will Sheppard for 5 yds to the COLO 38Similar
Q1 7:55
2ND & 5
OWN 38
+4
76.2%
Dallan Hayden run for 4 yds to the COLO 42Similar
Q1 7:27
3RD & 1
OWN 42
+4
76.0%
Dallan Hayden run for 4 yds to the COLO 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:56
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+4
75.7%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to Terrell Timmons Jr. for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 6:29
2ND & 6
50
+6
75.5%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to Travis Hunter for 6 yds to the UCF 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:53
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-6
75.2%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to Travis Hunter for a loss of 6 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 5:20
2ND & 16
50
+15
75.5%
Micah Welch run for 15 yds to the UCF 35Similar
Q1 4:33
3RD & 1
OPP 35
+12
74.7%
Micah Welch run for 12 yds to the UCF 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:49
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+23
71.1%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to Travis Hunter for 23 yds for a TD (Alejandro Mata KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 4TD
1 play · 75 yds · 0:0076% → 76%
Q1 3:38
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+75
75.7%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to RJ Harvey for 75 yds for a TD (Colton Boomer KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 5TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 3:2825% → 31%
Q1 3:38
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
75.5%
Colorado Penalty, Delay Of Game (Shedeur Sanders) to the COLO 20Similar
Q1 3:36
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+1
75.5%
Dallan Hayden run for 1 yd to the COLO 21Similar
Q1 3:02
2ND & 14
OWN 21
+15
75.4%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to Will Sheppard for 15 yds to the COLO 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:30
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+12
74.5%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to Travis Hunter for 12 yds to the COLO 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:01
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
73.7%
Shedeur Sanders pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:57
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+10
73.9%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to Jimmy Horn Jr. for 10 yds to the UCF 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:28
1ST & 10
OPP 42
-5
73.4%
Colorado Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the UCF 47Similar
Q1 1:19
1ST & 15
OPP 47
0
73.7%
Dallan Hayden run for no gain to the UCF 47Similar
Q1 0:30
2ND & 15
OPP 47
0
73.6%
Shedeur Sanders pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 0:10
3RD & 15
OPP 47
+47
69.2%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to Will Sheppard for 47 yds for a TD (Alejandro Mata KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · -2 yds · 0:3070% → 69%
Q1 0:01
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+2
70.0%
RJ Harvey run for 2 yds to the UCF 28Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 28
-4
70.0%
KJ Jefferson sacked by Amari McNeill for a loss of 4 yards to the UCF 24Similar
Q2 14:36
3RD & 12
OWN 24
0
68.9%
KJ Jefferson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:31
4TH & 12
OWN 24
0
68.6%
Mitch McCarthy punt for 41 yds, fair catch by LaJohntay Wester at the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 7TD
7 plays · 50 yds · 2:0132% → 42%
Q2 14:22
1ST & 10
50
+6
67.7%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to Drelon Miller for 6 yds to the UCF 44Similar
Q2 14:00
2ND & 4
OPP 44
+4
67.3%
Drelon Miller run for 4 yds to the UCF 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:33
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+6
66.9%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to Micah Welch for 6 yds to the UCF 34Similar
Q2 12:56
2ND & 4
OPP 34
+5
66.3%
Micah Welch run for 5 yds to the UCF 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:32
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+15
65.3%
(12:32) SANDERS, Shedeur pass to the right incomplete thrown to the UCF19, clock 12:26. PENALTY UCF Roughing the Passer on NIXON, Isaiah enforced 15 yards from the UCF29 to the UCF14 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 12:21
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+14
58.3%
Dallan Hayden run for 14 yds for a TD (Alejandro Mata KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 8TD
9 plays · 68 yds · 3:2960% → 67%
Q2 12:10
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+9
60.0%
RJ Harvey run for 9 yds to the UCF 41Similar
Q2 11:54
2ND & 1
OWN 41
+3
60.0%
RJ Harvey run for 3 yds to the UCF 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:32
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+2
59.6%
RJ Harvey run for 2 yds to the UCF 46Similar
Q2 10:53
2ND & 8
OWN 46
0
58.9%
KJ Jefferson run for no gain to the UCF 46Similar
Q2 10:11
3RD & 8
OWN 46
+9
57.8%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Xavier Townsend for 9 yds to the COLO 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:48
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+22
57.5%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Xavier Townsend for 22 yds to the COLO 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:21
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+16
57.5%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Kobe Hudson for 16 yds to the COLO 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:41
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
67.1%
KJ Jefferson run for 7 yds for a TD (Colton Boomer KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 9DOWNS
9 plays · 40 yds · 2:4937% → 42%
Q2 8:41
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
63.2%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to Sav'ell Smalls for 11 yds to the COLO 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:10
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+1
60.8%
Dallan Hayden run for 1 yd to the COLO 37Similar
Q2 7:36
2ND & 9
OWN 37
+23
60.4%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to LaJohntay Wester for 23 yds to the UCF 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:01
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-6
58.3%
Shedeur Sanders sacked by Nyjalik Kelly for a loss of 6 yards to the UCF 46Similar
Q2 6:35
2ND & 16
OPP 46
0
58.7%
Shedeur Sanders pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:26
3RD & 16
OPP 46
-5
59.7%
Colorado Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the COLO 49Similar
Q2 6:26
3RD & 21
OWN 49
+15
60.2%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to Jimmy Horn Jr. for 15 yds to the UCF 36Similar
Q2 5:52
4TH & 6
OPP 36
+1
58.3%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to LaJohntay Wester for 1 yd to the UCF 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 10PUNT
7 plays · 12 yds · 2:0062% → 59%
Q2 5:48
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
61.8%
RJ Harvey run for 4 yds to the UCF 39Similar
Q2 5:27
2ND & 6
OWN 39
+2
62.9%
KJ Jefferson run for 2 yds to the UCF 41Similar
Q2 4:52
3RD & 4
OWN 41
+9
61.9%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Randy Pittman Jr. for 9 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:30
1ST & 10
50
-3
62.9%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to RJ Harvey for a loss of 3 yards to the UCF 47Similar
Q2 3:57
2ND & 13
OWN 47
0
60.9%
KJ Jefferson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:54
3RD & 13
OWN 47
0
59.8%
KJ Jefferson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:48
4TH & 13
OWN 47
0
59.2%
Mitch McCarthy punt for 39 yds, fair catch by LaJohntay Wester at the COLO 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 11FG
10 plays · 68 yds · 3:0142% → 51%
Q2 3:43
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+11
58.0%
Shedeur Sanders run for 11 yds to the COLO 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
55.9%
Shedeur Sanders pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:05
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+4
56.3%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to Jimmy Horn Jr. for 4 yds to the COLO 29Similar
Q2 2:28
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+15
55.0%
UCF Penalty, Face mask (15 yards) (Brandon Adams) to the UCF 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:58
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+1
48.8%
Dallan Hayden run for 1 yd to the UCF 26Similar
Q2 1:32
2ND & 9
OPP 26
+4
49.2%
Shedeur Sanders run for 4 yds to the UCF 22Similar
Q2 0:50
3RD & 5
OPP 22
+4
48.6%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to Travis Hunter for 4 yds to the UCF 18Similar
Q2 0:42
4TH & 1
OPP 18
+36
49.0%
Alejandro Mata 36 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 12PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 0:1551% → 49%
Q2 0:37
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+5
50.7%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Randy Pittman Jr. for 5 yds to the UCF 21Similar
Q2 0:32
2ND & 5
OWN 21
0
50.7%
KJ Jefferson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:26
3RD & 5
OWN 21
-6
49.4%
KJ Jefferson sacked by Taje McCoy for a loss of 6 yards to the UCF 15Similar
Q2 0:22
4TH & 11
OWN 15
+27
49.1%
Mitch McCarthy punt for 47 yds , Jimmy Horn Jr. returns for 27 yds to the UCF 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 13FG
2 plays · 7 yds · 0:0753% → 68%
Q2 0:07
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+7
46.6%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to Micah Welch for 7 yds to the UCF 28Similar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 3
OPP 28
+46
32.5%
Alejandro Mata 46 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 14MISSED FG
11 plays · 38 yds · 4:0247% → 42%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
47.3%
Colorado Penalty, Offsides (Anquin Barnes Jr.) to the UCF 30Similar
Q3 14:49
1ST & 5
OWN 30
+9
48.2%
Johnny Richardson run for 9 yds to the UCF 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:31
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+3
47.9%
RJ Harvey run for 3 yds to the UCF 42Similar
Q3 14:01
2ND & 7
OWN 42
+5
47.8%
Johnny Richardson run for 5 yds to the UCF 47Similar
Q3 13:23
3RD & 2
OWN 47
+5
47.3%
Peny Boone run for 5 yds to the COLO 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:57
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-10
47.1%
(12:57) BOONE, Peny rush to the left for no gain to the CU48 (NWANKWO, Chidozie;GREEN, B.J.), clock 12:56. PENALTY UCF Holding on KIGHT, Amari enforced 10 yards from the CU48 to the UCF42 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 12:32
1ST & 20
OWN 42
+21
44.4%
KJ Jefferson run for 21 yds to the COLO 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:18
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+4
46.0%
KJ Jefferson run for 4 yds to the COLO 33Similar
Q3 11:44
2ND & 6
OPP 33
-4
47.0%
Xavier Townsend run for a loss of 4 yards to the COLO 37Similar
Q3 11:00
3RD & 10
OPP 37
0
43.6%
KJ Jefferson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:53
4TH & 10
OPP 37
+55
42.2%
Colton Boomer 55 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 15TD
4 plays · 63 yds · 1:4265% → 86%
Q3 10:53
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+2
35.0%
Dallan Hayden run for 2 yds to the COLO 39Similar
Q3 10:18
2ND & 8
OWN 39
+15
34.5%
UCF Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the UCF 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:55
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+32
32.9%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to Will Sheppard for 32 yds to the UCF 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:11
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
13.8%
Micah Welch run for 1 yd for a TD (Alejandro Mata KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 16INT
5 plays · 11 yds · 1:2522% → 12%
Q3 9:08
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
21.9%
RJ Harvey run for 3 yds to the UCF 28Similar
Q3 8:42
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+8
21.4%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Ja'Varrius Johnson for 8 yds to the UCF 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:02
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
21.2%
KJ Jefferson pass intercepted Travis Hunter return for no gain to the UCF 38Similar
Q3 8:02
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-5
12.8%
(08:02) SANDERS, Shedeur scrambles to the right for a gain of 5 yards to the UCF33 (PACE, Deshawn), clock 07:55. PENALTY Before the snap, CU Illegal Formation enforced 5 yards from the UCF38 to the UCF43. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 7:43
1ST & 15
OPP 43
-5
12.4%
Colorado Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the UCF 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 17PUNT
4 plays · -9 yds · 2:0488% → 91%
Q3 7:22
1ST & 20
OPP 48
-7
12.1%
Micah Welch run for a loss of 7 yards to the COLO 45Similar
Q3 6:47
2ND & 27
OWN 45
-2
12.4%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to Travis Hunter for a loss of 2 yards to the COLO 43Similar
Q3 6:00
3RD & 29
OWN 43
+10
11.6%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to Travis Hunter for 10 yds to the UCF 47Similar
Q3 5:18
4TH & 19
OPP 47
0
9.3%
Mark Vassett punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Xavier Townsend at the UCF 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 18TD
3 plays · 92 yds · 1:2015% → 36%
Q3 5:18
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+54
14.5%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Trent Whittemore for 54 yds to the COLO 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:48
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+23
16.3%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Kobe Hudson for 23 yds to the COLO 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:58
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+15
36.1%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Xavier Townsend for 15 yds for a TD (Colton Boomer KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 19TD
6 plays · 65 yds · 2:2477% → 95%
Q3 3:56
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
22.8%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to Drelon Miller for 2 yds to the COLO 37Similar
Q3 3:24
2ND & 8
OWN 37
+21
21.7%
Isaiah Augustave run for 21 yds to the UCF 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:46
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+19
19.9%
Isaiah Augustave run for 19 yds to the UCF 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:18
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
18.7%
Shedeur Sanders pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:04
2ND & 10
OPP 23
+13
19.0%
Shedeur Sanders run for 13 yds to the UCF 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:32
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
4.9%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to LaJohntay Wester for 10 yds for a TD (Alejandro Mata KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 20FUMBLE
3 plays · 38 yds · 1:068% → 8%
Q3 1:28
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+23
8.4%
KJ Jefferson run for 23 yds to the UCF 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:58
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+2
8.4%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Ja'Varrius Johnson for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 0:22
2ND & 8
50
+13
8.0%
RJ Harvey run for 13 yds to the COLO 37 RJ Harvey fumbled, recovered by COLO DJ McKinney D. McKinney return for 0 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 21PUNT
4 plays · -8 yds · 1:2594% → 94%
Q3 0:14
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+1
5.7%
Isaiah Augustave run for 1 yd to the COLO 38Similar
Q4 14:56
2ND & 9
OWN 38
-2
5.5%
Isaiah Augustave run for a loss of 2 yards to the COLO 36Similar
Q4 14:18
3RD & 11
OWN 36
-7
5.7%
Shedeur Sanders sacked by Malachi Lawrence for a loss of 7 yards to the COLO 29Similar
Q4 13:49
4TH & 18
OWN 29
+15
5.9%
Mark Vassett punt for 42 yds , Xavier Townsend returns for 15 yds to the COLO 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 22DOWNS
16 plays · 37 yds · 4:496% → 4%
Q4 13:21
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+6
5.8%
RJ Harvey run for 6 yds to the COLO 40Similar
Q4 12:59
2ND & 4
OPP 40
-5
5.9%
KJ Jefferson sacked by Samuel Okunlola for a loss of 5 yards to the COLO 45Similar
Q4 12:09
3RD & 9
OPP 45
0
4.8%
KJ Jefferson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:02
4TH & 9
OPP 45
+10
4.5%
KJ Jefferson run for 10 yds to the COLO 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:43
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
5.0%
KJ Jefferson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:34
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+10
5.0%
KJ Jefferson run for 10 yds to the COLO 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:08
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+6
5.0%
RJ Harvey run for 6 yds to the COLO 19Similar
Q4 10:47
2ND & 4
OPP 19
-1
4.8%
RJ Harvey run for a loss of 1 yard to the COLO 20Similar
Q4 10:14
3RD & 5
OPP 20
0
4.4%
KJ Jefferson run for no gain to the COLO 20Similar
Q4 9:48
4TH & 5
OPP 20
+5
4.0%
Colorado Penalty, Offsides (5 Yards) to the COLO 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:41
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+13
4.4%
RJ Harvey run for 13 yds to the COLO 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
0
5.8%
KJ Jefferson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:14
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
-2
6.0%
Johnny Richardson run for a loss of 2 yards to the COLO 4Similar
Q4 8:40
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
0
4.5%
KJ Jefferson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:32
4TH & GOAL
OPP 4
-5
4.3%
KJ Jefferson sacked by Nikhai Hill-Green for a loss of 5 yards to the COLO 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 23PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:2698% → 98%
Q4 8:27
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+4
2.4%
Dallan Hayden run for 4 yds to the COLO 13Similar
Q4 7:45
2ND & 6
OWN 13
+2
2.2%
Dallan Hayden run for 2 yds to the COLO 15Similar
Q4 7:03
3RD & 4
OWN 15
0
2.1%
Shedeur Sanders pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 7:01
4TH & 4
OWN 15
+10
2.1%
Mark Vassett punt for 50 yds , Xavier Townsend returns for 10 yds to the UCF 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 24FUMBLE RETURN TD
7 plays · 50 yds · 1:523% → 0%
Q4 6:57
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-2
2.5%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to RJ Harvey for a loss of 2 yards to the UCF 43Similar
Q4 6:31
2ND & 12
OWN 43
0
2.2%
KJ Jefferson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:30
3RD & 12
OWN 43
-1
2.2%
KJ Jefferson sacked by Taje McCoy for a loss of 1 yard to the UCF 42Similar
Q4 6:19
4TH & 13
OWN 42
+15
1.7%
Colorado Penalty, Roughing the Passer on MCNEILL, Amari enforced (Amari McNeill) to the COLO 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:55
1ST & 10
OPP 21
0
2.1%
KJ Jefferson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:43
2ND & 10
OPP 21
+7
2.0%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Johnny Richardson for 7 yds to the COLO 14Similar
Q4 5:05
3RD & 3
OPP 14
+95
0.3%
Cam'Ron Silmon-Craig 95 Yd Fumble Return (Alejandro Mata Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 25DOWNS
13 plays · 24 yds · 3:100% → 0%
Q4 4:56
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+4
0.2%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Xavier Townsend for 4 yds to the UCF 49Similar
Q4 4:28
2ND & 6
OWN 49
+4
0.2%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Randy Pittman Jr. for 4 yds to the COLO 47Similar
Q4 4:11
3RD & 2
OPP 47
+2
0.2%
Peny Boone run for 2 yds to the COLO 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:54
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
0.2%
KJ Jefferson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:49
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+9
0.2%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Peny Boone for 9 yds to the COLO 36Similar
Q4 3:25
3RD & 1
OPP 36
+7
0.2%
KJ Jefferson run for 7 yds to the COLO 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:01
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+4
0.2%
KJ Jefferson run for 4 yds to the COLO 25Similar
Q4 2:34
2ND & 6
OPP 25
+3
0.2%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Johnny Richardson for 3 yds to the COLO 22Similar
Q4 2:00
3RD & 3
OPP 22
-1
0.2%
Johnny Richardson run for a loss of 1 yard to the COLO 23Similar
Q4 1:57
4TH & 4
OPP 23
-5
0.1%
UCF Penalty, False Start (Braeden Marshall) to the COLO 28Similar
Q4 1:57
4TH & 9
OPP 28
-5
0.1%
UCF Penalty, False Start (Jacoby Jones) to the COLO 33Similar
Q4 1:46
4TH & 14
OPP 33
+2
0.1%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Evan Morris for 2 yds to the COLO 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 26END OF GAME
3 plays · 11 yds · 1:31100% → 100%
Q4 1:46
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+4
0.1%
Charlie Offerdahl run for 4 yds to the COLO 35Similar
Q4 0:59
2ND & 6
OWN 35
+3
0.1%
Charlie Offerdahl run for 3 yds to the COLO 38Similar
Q4 0:15
3RD & 3
OWN 38
+4
0.1%
Charlie Offerdahl run for 4 yds to the COLO 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 3:58
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Xavier Townsend for 15 yds for a TD (Colton Boomer KICK)
+19.8
TD · Q3 9:11
Micah Welch run for 1 yd for a TD (Alejandro Mata KICK)
-19.1
FG · Q2 0:00
Alejandro Mata 46 yd FG GOOD
-14.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com