Tulane

Profile vs. FBS, 2024

Farther out is better on every spoke. Dashed ring: the FBS median.

• EPA per play

  Expected points added on an average snap: how much each play moved the scoring odds.
  Offense+0.2384th
  Defense+0.0380th
• Success rate

  Share of snaps that stayed on schedule: half the yards needed on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of them on 3rd or 4th.
  Offense45.5%77th
  Defense38.4%79th
• Explosiveness

  Average EPA on the successful snaps: how big the good plays were.
  Offense+1.2861st
  Defense+1.2653rd
• Rushing EPA

  EPA per designed run.
  Offense+0.1259th
  Defense+0.0751st
• Passing EPA

  EPA per pass play.
  Offense+0.4095th
  Defense−0.0192nd
• Standard downs

  Success rate on downs where either a run or a pass makes sense, like 1st and 10 or 3rd and 2.
  Offense50.0%70th
  Defense43.4%80th
• Passing downs

  Success rate on downs that all but force a pass, like 2nd and 8 or longer, or 3rd and 5 or longer.
  Offense35.8%86th
  Defense27.8%78th
• Line yards

  Rushing yards per carry credited to the offensive line, weighting the first few yards most.
  Offense3.1566th
  Defense2.9852nd
• Stuff rate

  Share of runs stopped at or behind the line of scrimmage.
  Offense15.1%76th
  Defense18.0%56th
• Havoc

  Share of snaps with a tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception or pass breakup.
  Offense11.0%98th
  Defense16.5%54th

Percentiles among the 134 FBS teams this season, where higher is better for the offense and the defense alike (a defense's numbers are what it allowed). The line in each bar is the FBS median. Garbage time excluded. Source: CollegeFootballData.

Drives vs. expectation, 2024

Every snap has an expected-points value: what a drive from that spot, down and distance is worth on average. A drive over expected beat its starting spot; defense counts what Tulane allowed, so lower is better. The adjusted number fits every team against the opponents it actually played, so it leans toward average early in a season. Ranks are among FBS teams.

Game by game

1. W
   SELA
2. L
   KSU
3. L
   OU
4. W
   UL
5. W
   USF
6. W
   UAB
7. W
   RICE
8. W
   UNT
9. W
   CLT
10. W
    TEM
11. W
    NAVY
12. L
    MEM
13. L
    ARMY
14. L
    FLA

Bars above the line: better than expected for Tulane.

Players, 2024

1. Darian MensahQB263 plays · +0.303 pts/play · 57th of 232 QBs
   1.49WAR1.04 to 2.01
2. Makhi HughesRB241 plays · +0.142 pts/play · 7th of 373 RBs
   0.64WAR0.48 to 0.80
3. Mario WilliamsWR52 plays · +0.123 pts/play · 115th of 452 WRs
   0.12WAR−0.03 to 0.27
4. Arnold Barnes IIIRB47 plays · +0.097 pts/play · 261st of 373 RBs
   0.09WAR0.06 to 0.12
5. Dontae FlemingWR34 plays · +0.124 pts/play · 178th of 452 WRs
   0.08WAR0.01 to 0.14
6. Will KarollP35 plays · +0.094 pts/play · 49th of 106 punters
   0.06WAR0.01 to 0.11
7. Shaadie Clayton-JohnsonRB25 plays · +0.113 pts/play · 286th of 373 RBs
   0.05WAR0.03 to 0.07
8. Jacob BarnesPK7 plays · +0.289 pts/play · 98th of 114 kickers
   0.04WAR0.02 to 0.06

By position group, against FBS

Linemen and defenders are valued as units, in points per game against the median FBS unit, because play-by-play doesn't say who was on the field. Players are valued against a replacement-level backup, so the two aren't added together.

Wins above replacement credits each play's expected points to the players involved, adjusted for the opponent, and compares Tulane's players with a typical backup; 53 points make a win. Only snaps while the game was in doubt count, so a starter on a team that blows opponents out plays fewer of them: read value per play beside WAR. The line under each player (or the range on a phone) is the 90% interval. Ranks are among FBS teams and players. How this works

What it had and what it did, 2024

• Roster talent

  247Sports' talent composite: the recruiting ratings of every player on the roster, transfers included.
  65465462nd of 131Roster talent: 654, 62nd of 131 in FBS
• Recruiting

  Average 247Sports class score over this season's class and the three before it.
  16816872nd of 131Recruiting: 168, 72nd of 131 in FBS
• Returning production

  Share of last season's production (expected points added) by players still on the roster.
  30%30%98th of 130Returning production: 30%, 98th of 130 in FBS
• SP+ rating

  The result: Bill Connelly's opponent-adjusted rating, points per game better than an average FBS team.
  +5.7+5.742nd of 131SP+ rating: +5.7, 42nd of 131 in FBS

Ranks and bars among the 131 FBS teams with a talent rating this season, best first; the line in each bar is the FBS median.

Talent conversion

Conversion by season

Fourth-down calls vs. the numbers, 2024

Each real fourth down is valued three ways (go for it, kick, punt) from the score, clock and field position before the snap, using league-wide odds rather than Tulane's own. A call that differs gives up the gap to the best option; gaps under one point are close calls, and the 3 clear-cut ones account for 0.05 of the 0.13 expected wins. The model sees the situation, not the injury report, so a call it disagrees with can still be right. Ranks are among FBS teams; 1st gave up the least.

Costliest calls against the numbers

1. at FLAQ3 13:09 4th & 1 at TULN 30, down 6Punted; the numbers favored going for it−2.1 pts
2. at ULQ4 5:42 4th & 4 at UL 20, up 5Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it−1.6 pts
3. at FLAQ2 1:54 4th & 1 at TULN 29, down 6Punted; the numbers favored going for it−1.5 pts
4. at NAVYQ2 0:23 4th & 4 at NAVY 39, up 14Punted; the numbers favored a field goal (close call)−0.9 pts
5. vs KSUQ4 5:10 4th & 9 at TULN 38, down 7Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.8 pts
6. vs RICEQ4 2:36 4th & 2 at TULN 26, up 7Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.7 pts
7. at CLTQ2 9:53 4th & 1 at TULN 23, up 3Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.7 pts
8. vs SELAQ2 5:19 4th & 1 at TULN 29, up 14Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.6 pts

Record vs. expectation, 2024

71st of 134 FBS teams at beating the model's pregame expectations

Expected wins adds up Tulane's chance of winning each game as the model saw it at kickoff - a 70% favorite counts 0.7.

1. W

   SELA
2. L

   KSU
3. L

   OU
4. W

   UL
5. W

   USF
6. W

   UAB
7. W

   RICE
8. W

   UNT
9. W

   CLT
10. W

    TEM
11. W

    NAVY
12. L

    MEM
13. L

    ARMY
14. L

    FLA

What moved it, 2024

Every game starts at Tulane's pregame chance; everything after that is the field. The model's own breakdown of each game's final play splits the on-field part by what drove it, and the parts add up exactly. How it works →

• Scoreboard+0.28
• Possession & field position+0.01
• Clock+0.04
• Timeouts+0.02
• Less the pregame edge, counted before kickoff−0.44

Game by game

• SELAW 52-0 vs SELA97% → 100%Before kickoff +47 · On the field +3: Scoreboard +5
• KSUL 27-34 vs KSU28% → 9%Before kickoff −22 · On the field −19: Scoreboard −39, Clock −2
• OUL 19-34 at OU17% → 1%Before kickoff −33 · On the field −16: Scoreboard −21
• ULW 41-33 at UL53% → 97%Before kickoff +3 · On the field +43: Scoreboard +49, Clock +3
• USFW 45-10 vs USF56% → 100%Before kickoff +6 · On the field +44: Scoreboard +42
• UABW 71-20 at UAB88% → 100%Before kickoff +38 · On the field +12: Scoreboard +17, Clock +1
• RICEW 24-10 vs RICE92% → 99%Before kickoff +42 · On the field +7: Scoreboard +13
• UNTW 45-37 at UNT71% → 98%Before kickoff +21 · On the field +26: Scoreboard +37, Clock +2
• CLTW 34-3 at CLT81% → 100%Before kickoff +31 · On the field +18: Scoreboard +24, Clock +1
• TEMW 52-6 vs TEM95% → 100%Before kickoff +45 · On the field +5: Scoreboard +8
• NAVYW 35-0 at NAVY73% → 100%Before kickoff +23 · On the field +26: Scoreboard +32, Clock +1
• MEML 24-34 vs MEM78% → 4%Before kickoff +28 · On the field −74: Scoreboard −57, Clock −3
• ARMYL 14-35 at ARMY65% → 0%Before kickoff +15 · On the field −65: Scoreboard −57, Clock +2
• FLAL 8-33 at FLA21% → 0%Before kickoff −29 · On the field −21: Scoreboard −25, Timeouts +1

Points of win probability, from Tulane's side.

Closest call

TULN 46-45 USC (2022) - Tulane dropped to a 2.4% win probability before pulling it out.