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TULN

Tulane 31 at Houston 24

HOU
2014 · Week 11 · Nov 8, 2014 · TDECU Stadium
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Win probability · HOU
modelHOU aheadTULN aheadconfidence bandkey playHOU scoreTULN score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDFGTDTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:00 · Greg Ward Jr. pass intercepted Parry Nickerson return for 12 yds to the Tulan 12
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+44.0+22.00−22.0−44.0Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 10:39: Dontrell Hilliard 63 Yd pass from Tanner Lee (Andrew DiRocco Kick) — TULN win probability +5.9 pts (now 26%) (top driver: TULN has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 1:53: Adrian McDonald 0 Yd Fumble Return (Kyle Bullard Kick) — HOU win probability +10.1 pts (now 74%) (top driver: TULN has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 5:39: Leondre James 9 Yd pass from Tanner Lee (Andrew DiRocco Kick) — TULN win probability +16.9 pts (now 47%) (top driver: TULN has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 9:22: Dontrell Hilliard 1 Yd Run (Andrew DiRocco Kick) — TULN win probability +18.7 pts (now 85%) (top driver: TULN has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 1:04: Deontay Greenberry 9 Yd pass from Greg Ward Jr. (Kyle Bullard Kick) — HOU win probability +18.3 pts (now 20%) (top driver: HOU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
HOU made the numbers' call on 5 of 6TULN made the numbers' call on 3 of 5
  1. Q1 13:56TULN 4th & 3 at TULN 31, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 14.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.8%−<0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.8%
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:39TULN 4th & 10 at HOU 34, up 7
    Close callPunted · 18.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.5%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    18.6%
    47% to make
    PuntTheir call
    18.5%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 0:07TULN 4th & 1 at TULN 34, tied
    Close callPunted · 19.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.6%−0.3
    average punt
  4. Q2 14:04HOU 4th & 5 at HOU 35, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 79.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.0%−0.2
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    80.2%
    average punt
  5. Q2 6:55HOU 4th & 14 at HOU 49, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 68.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.1%−1.2
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    68.3%
    average punt
  6. Q2 3:59TULN 4th & 9 at TULN 28, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.6%−1.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    33.6%
    average punt
  7. Q2 2:10HOU 4th & 13 at TULN 40, down 7
    Close callPunted · 63.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.0%−0.4
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    62.4%
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    62.2%−0.2
    average punt
  8. Q3 11:29HOU 4th & 17 at TULN 31, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 75.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.4%−1.9
    14% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    75.3%
    54% to make
    Punt
    74.1%−1.2
    average punt
  9. Q3 0:10HOU 4th & 12 at TULN 12, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 50.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.8%−3.4
    19% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    50.2%
    86% to make
    Punt
    36.6%−13.6
    average punt
  10. Q4 3:24TULN 4th & 6 at HOU 8, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 91.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.2%−<0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    91.2%
    90% to make
    Punt
    87.7%−3.5
    average punt
  11. Q4 0:00HOU 4th & 5 at TULN 5, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 19.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    21.6%
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    4.8%−16.8
    92% to make
    Punt
    6.6%−15.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
HOU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3TULN made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 11:19TULN Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    16.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    16.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 1:36HOU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    80.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    80.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 10:39TULN Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    26.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    26.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 1:53HOU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    72.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    72.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 5:39TULN Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    40.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    40.5%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 9:22TULN Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    82.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    81.5%−0.4
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 1:04HOU Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    9.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    7.3%−2.3
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
TULNDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:4913% → 13%
Q1 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
86.8%
Tanner Lee pass incomplete to Terren EncaladeSimilar
Q1 14:32
2ND & 10
OWN 24
+7
86.8%
Danté Butler run for 7 yds to the Tulan 31Similar
Q1 14:03
3RD & 3
OWN 31
0
86.6%
Tanner Lee pass incomplete to Justyn ShacklefordSimilar
Q1 13:56
4TH & 3
OWN 31
0
86.6%
Peter Picerelli punt for 49 yds, fair catch by Demarcus Ayers at the Houst 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 2FUMBLE
1 play · 6 yds · 0:0087% → 87%
Q1 13:50
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+6
86.6%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Deontay Greenberry for 6 yds Deontay Greenberry fumbled, forced by Nico Marley, recovered by Tulan Darion MonroeSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 3TD
5 plays · 26 yds · 2:2614% → 15%
Q1 13:45
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+1
86.4%
Dontrell Hilliard run for 1 yd to the Houst 25Similar
Q1 12:33
2ND & 9
OPP 25
+8
86.0%
Tanner Lee pass complete to Matt Marfisi for 8 yds to the Houst 17Similar
Q1 12:06
3RD & 1
OPP 17
+3
85.9%
Danté Butler run for 3 yds to the Houst 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:45
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+2
85.7%
Dontrell Hilliard run for 2 yds to the Houst 12Similar
Q1 11:19
2ND & 8
OPP 12
+12
84.9%
Teddy Veal 12 Yd pass from Tanner Lee (Andrew DiRocco Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 4INT
6 plays · 13 yds · 1:5285% → 84%
Q1 11:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
85.1%
Ryan Jackson run for 2 yds to the Houst 27Similar
Q1 10:45
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+7
84.9%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Deontay Greenberry for 7 yds to the Houst 34Similar
Q1 10:20
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+3
84.7%
Ryan Jackson run for 3 yds to the Houst 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:58
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+1
84.5%
Ryan Jackson run for 1 yd to the Houst 38Similar
Q1 9:18
2ND & 9
OWN 38
+12
84.2%
Greg Ward Jr. pass intercepted Sam Scofield return for 12 yds to the Houst 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 1:2117% → 17%
Q1 9:00
1ST & 10
OPP 34
-11
83.4%
Tanner Lee sacked by Efrem Oliphant for a loss of 11 yards to the Houst 45Similar
Q1 8:31
2ND & 21
OPP 45
0
83.3%
Tanner Lee pass incomplete to Terren EncaladeSimilar
Q1 8:19
3RD & 21
OPP 45
+11
83.3%
Tanner Lee pass complete to Dontrell Hilliard for 11 yds to the Houst 34Similar
Q1 7:39
4TH & 10
OPP 34
0
83.0%
Peter Picerelli punt for 27 yds, fair catch by Demarcus Ayers at the Houst 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 6TD
14 plays · 93 yds · 5:4583% → 84%
Q1 7:21
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+3
83.0%
Kenneth Farrow run for 3 yds to the Houst 10Similar
Q1 6:55
2ND & 7
OWN 10
+5
82.8%
Greg Ward Jr. run for 5 yds to the Houst 15Similar
Q1 6:25
3RD & 2
OWN 15
+7
82.3%
Greg Ward Jr. run for 7 yds to the Houst 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:03
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
82.3%
Greg Ward Jr. pass incomplete to Demarcus AyersSimilar
Q1 5:55
2ND & 10
OWN 22
+18
82.2%
Greg Ward Jr. run for 18 yds to the Houst 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:30
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-10
82.4%
HOUSTON Penalty, Offensive Holding (Ben Dew) to the Houst 30Similar
Q1 5:30
1ST & 20
OWN 30
+3
82.0%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Markeith Ambles for 3 yds to the Houst 33Similar
Q1 5:30
2ND & 17
OWN 33
-6
82.0%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Steven Dunbar for 4 yds to the Houst 37 HOUSTON Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Houst 27Similar
Q1 4:02
2ND & 23
OWN 27
+21
81.0%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Wayne Beadle for 21 yds to the Houst 48Similar
Q1 3:33
3RD & 2
OWN 48
+2
81.4%
Kenneth Farrow run for 2 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:13
1ST & 10
50
+1
81.4%
Greg Ward Jr. run for 1 yd to the Tulan 49Similar
Q1 2:39
2ND & 9
OPP 49
+2
81.1%
Greg Ward Jr. run for 2 yds to the Tulan 47Similar
Q1 1:57
3RD & 7
OPP 47
+28
80.3%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Deontay Greenberry for 28 yds to the Tulan 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:36
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+19
84.1%
Markeith Ambles 19 Yd pass from Greg Ward Jr. (Kyle Bullard Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:1618% → 18%
Q1 1:23
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
82.2%
Sherman Badie run for 2 yds to the Tulan 27Similar
Q1 1:00
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+6
82.0%
Tanner Lee pass complete to Charles Jones for 6 yds to the Tulan 33Similar
Q1 0:39
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+1
81.7%
Danté Butler run for 1 yd to the Tulan 34Similar
Q1 0:07
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
81.9%
Peter Picerelli punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Demarcus Ayers at the Houst 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 8PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:5683% → 82%
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+3
82.6%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Deontay Greenberry for 3 yds to the Houst 33Similar
Q2 14:41
2ND & 7
OWN 33
+2
82.6%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Deontay Greenberry for 2 yds to the Houst 35Similar
Q2 14:17
3RD & 5
OWN 35
0
82.2%
Greg Ward Jr. pass incomplete to Deontay GreenberrySimilar
Q2 14:04
4TH & 5
OWN 35
+1
81.8%
Logan Piper punt for 54 yds , Teddy Veal returns for 1 yd to the Tulan 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 9TD
8 plays · 88 yds · 3:2519% → 26%
Q2 14:04
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+6
81.4%
Dontrell Hilliard run for 6 yds to the Tulan 18Similar
Q2 13:26
2ND & 4
OWN 18
+9
81.0%
Tanner Lee pass complete to Dontrell Hilliard for 9 yds to the Tulan 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:57
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
80.8%
Tanner Lee pass incomplete to Justyn ShacklefordSimilar
Q2 12:47
2ND & 10
OWN 27
-6
80.8%
Tanner Lee pass complete to Danté Butler for a loss of 6 yards to the Tulan 21Similar
Q2 12:08
3RD & 16
OWN 21
+10
81.0%
HOUSTON Penalty, Defensive Holding (Trevon Stewart) to the Tulan 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:00
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+1
80.3%
Sherman Badie run for 1 yd to the Tulan 32Similar
Q2 11:19
2ND & 9
OWN 32
+5
80.1%
Tanner Lee pass complete to Trey Scott for 5 yds to the Tulan 37Similar
Q2 10:39
3RD & 4
OWN 37
+63
74.2%
Dontrell Hilliard 63 Yd pass from Tanner Lee (Andrew DiRocco Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 10PUNT
11 plays · 30 yds · 3:2875% → 71%
Q2 10:23
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+5
74.9%
Kenneth Farrow run for 5 yds to the Houst 24Similar
Q2 9:59
2ND & 5
OWN 24
0
74.6%
Greg Ward Jr. pass incomplete to Markeith AmblesSimilar
Q2 9:59
3RD & 5
OWN 24
+15
73.8%
Ward Jr., Greg pass incomplete to Greenberry, Deontay, PENALTY TULANE personal foul (Monroe, Darion) 15 yards to the HOUSTON39, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN HOUSTON. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:31
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-3
74.6%
Kenneth Farrow run for a loss of 3 yards to the Houst 36Similar
Q2 9:31
2ND & 13
OWN 36
+17
74.0%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Deontay Greenberry for 17 yds to the Tulan 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:00
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-10
75.4%
Ward Jr., Greg pass incomplete to Greenberry, Deontay, PENALTY HOUSTON illegal block (Ayers, Demarcus) 10 yards to the HOUSTON43, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 8:50
1ST & 20
OWN 43
0
73.7%
Kenneth Farrow run for no gain to the Houst 43Similar
Q2 8:50
2ND & 20
OWN 43
+18
73.6%
Greg Ward Jr. run for 18 yds to the Tulan 39Similar
Q2 8:50
3RD & 2
OPP 39
-9
75.3%
TEAM run for a loss of 9 yards to the Houst 49 TEAM fumbled, recovered by Houst Greg Ward Jr. Greg Ward Jr. run for a loss of 3 yards to the Houst 49Similar
Q2 6:55
4TH & 14
OWN 49
0
70.5%
Logan Piper punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Teddy Veal at the Tulan 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 11PUNT
7 plays · 11 yds · 2:3330% → 31%
Q2 6:32
1ST & 10
OWN 17
0
70.2%
Danté Butler run for no gain to the Tulan 17Similar
Q2 6:03
2ND & 10
OWN 17
+8
70.1%
Tanner Lee pass complete to Justyn Shackleford for 8 yds to the Tulan 25Similar
Q2 5:22
3RD & 2
OWN 25
+2
68.8%
Dontrell Hilliard run for 2 yds to the Tulan 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:00
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+1
68.4%
Dontrell Hilliard run for 1 yd to the Tulan 28Similar
Q2 4:16
2ND & 9
OWN 28
0
67.8%
Tanner Lee pass incomplete to Teddy VealSimilar
Q2 4:11
3RD & 9
OWN 28
0
68.4%
Tanner Lee pass incomplete to Justyn ShacklefordSimilar
Q2 3:59
4TH & 9
OWN 28
+16
69.0%
Peter Picerelli punt for 42 yds , Demarcus Ayers returns for 16 yds to the Houst 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 12PUNT
5 plays · 14 yds · 1:3370% → 66%
Q2 3:43
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+17
69.8%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Deontay Greenberry for 17 yds to the Tulan 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:27
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
70.5%
Greg Ward Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:06
2ND & 10
OPP 37
+4
70.1%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Deontay Greenberry for 4 yds to the Tulan 33Similar
Q2 2:15
3RD & 6
OPP 33
-7
69.1%
Greg Ward Jr. sacked by Royce LaFrance and Sean Wilson for a loss of 7 yards to the Tulan 40Similar
Q2 2:10
4TH & 13
OPP 40
0
65.8%
Logan Piper punt for 32 yds, downed at the Tulan 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 13FUMBLE RETURN TD
3 plays · 4 yds · 0:1035% → 26%
Q2 2:03
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+2
65.4%
Dontrell Hilliard run for 2 yds to the Tulan 10Similar
Q2 1:53
2ND & 8
OWN 10
0
74.0%
Adrian McDonald 0 Yd Fumble Return (Kyle Bullard Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 14INT
11 plays · 40 yds · 1:1927% → 29%
Q2 1:39
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
73.4%
Dontrell Hilliard run for 3 yds to the Tulan 28Similar
Q2 1:39
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+11
73.2%
Tanner Lee pass complete to Dontrell Hilliard for 11 yds to the Tulan 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:10
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+7
71.8%
Tanner Lee pass complete to Justyn Shackleford for 7 yds to the Tulan 46Similar
Q2 0:56
2ND & 3
OWN 46
+14
70.6%
Tanner Lee pass complete to Leondre James for 14 yds to the Houst 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:45
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
69.6%
Tanner Lee pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:41
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+5
70.4%
HOUSTON Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Efrem Oliphant) to the Houst 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:37
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
69.1%
Tanner Lee pass incomplete to Teddy VealSimilar
Q2 0:31
2ND & 10
OPP 35
0
69.1%
Tanner Lee pass incomplete to Justyn ShacklefordSimilar
Q2 0:20
3RD & 10
OPP 35
+37
70.7%
Tanner Lee pass intercepted Adrian McDonald return for 37 yds to the Houst 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 15END OF HALF
6 plays · 31 yds · 0:1578% → 81%
Q2 0:15
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+9
78.3%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Wayne Beadle for 9 yds to the Tulan 44Similar
Q2 0:09
2ND & 1
OPP 44
+13
78.9%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Wayne Beadle for 13 yds to the Tulan 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:05
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+9
78.7%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Deontay Greenberry for 9 yds to the Tulan 22Similar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 1
OPP 22
+39
81.1%
Kyle Bullard 39 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 16MISSED FG
10 plays · 46 yds · 3:2678% → 76%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
78.1%
Greg Ward Jr. pass incomplete to Wayne BeadleSimilar
Q3 14:33
2ND & 10
OWN 23
+23
78.7%
Ryan Jackson run for 8 yds to the Houst 31 for a 1ST down TULANE Penalty, Horse Collar Tackle (Edward Williams) to the Houst 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:00
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+3
80.3%
Greg Ward Jr. run for 3 yds to the Houst 49Similar
Q3 13:55
2ND & 7
OWN 49
0
80.4%
Greg Ward Jr. pass incomplete to Deontay GreenberrySimilar
Q3 13:35
3RD & 7
OWN 49
+27
79.3%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Deontay Greenberry for 27 yds to the Tulan 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:23
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+1
81.0%
Greg Ward Jr. run for 1 yd to the Tulan 23Similar
Q3 12:50
2ND & 9
OPP 23
+5
80.7%
Ryan Jackson run for 5 yds to the Tulan 18Similar
Q3 12:50
3RD & 4
OPP 18
-13
79.9%
Greg Ward Jr. sacked by Lorenzo Doss for a loss of 13 yards to the Tulan 31Similar
Q3 11:29
4TH & 17
OPP 31
+63
76.2%
Kyle Bullard 48 yd FG MISSED TULANE Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the Tulan 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 17TD
12 plays · 84 yds · 5:4624% → 47%
Q3 11:25
1ST & 10
OWN 16
0
76.5%
Tanner Lee pass incomplete to Justyn ShacklefordSimilar
Q3 11:16
2ND & 10
OWN 16
+2
76.9%
Dontrell Hilliard run for 2 yds to the Tulan 18Similar
Q3 10:41
3RD & 8
OWN 18
+16
77.6%
Tanner Lee pass complete to Charles Jones for 16 yds to the Tulan 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:52
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+10
75.3%
Tanner Lee pass complete to Leondre James for 10 yds to the Tulan 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:38
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+6
73.7%
Dontrell Hilliard run for 6 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 9:20
2ND & 4
50
-3
72.8%
Dontrell Hilliard run for a loss of 3 yards to the Tulan 47Similar
Q3 9:00
3RD & 7
OWN 47
+9
73.9%
Tanner Lee pass complete to Teddy Veal for 9 yds to the Houst 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:10
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+1
72.1%
Dontrell Hilliard run for 1 yd to the Houst 43Similar
Q3 7:15
2ND & 9
OPP 43
+8
71.7%
Tanner Lee pass complete to Leondre James for 8 yds to the Houst 35Similar
Q3 6:50
3RD & 1
OPP 35
+21
71.2%
Danté Butler run for 21 yds to the Houst 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:18
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+5
69.6%
Dontrell Hilliard run for 5 yds to the Houst 9Similar
Q3 5:39
2ND & 5
OPP 9
+9
52.8%
Leondre James 9 Yd pass from Tanner Lee (Andrew DiRocco Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 18MISSED FG
15 plays · 63 yds · 5:2060% → 51%
Q3 5:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
59.5%
Greg Ward Jr. run for 8 yds to the Houst 33Similar
Q3 5:30
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+15
62.2%
Kenneth Farrow run for 15 yds to the Houst 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:50
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
61.5%
Kenneth Farrow run for no gain to the Houst 48Similar
Q3 4:27
2ND & 10
OWN 48
0
60.7%
Greg Ward Jr. pass incomplete to Demarcus AyersSimilar
Q3 4:13
3RD & 10
OWN 48
+13
57.5%
Greg Ward Jr. run for 13 yds to the Tulan 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:13
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+7
61.8%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Ryan Jackson for 7 yds to the Tulan 32Similar
Q3 3:28
2ND & 3
OPP 32
+7
61.3%
Greg Ward Jr. run for 7 yds to the Tulan 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
-9
60.9%
Greg Ward Jr. sacked by Royce LaFrance for a loss of 9 yards to the Tulan 34Similar
Q3 2:34
2ND & 19
OPP 34
0
58.1%
Greg Ward Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:34
3RD & 19
OPP 34
+24
55.3%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Markeith Ambles for 14 yds to the Tulan 20 for a 1ST down TULANE Penalty, Personal Foul (Nico Marley) to the Tulan 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
-1
60.1%
Kenneth Farrow run for a loss of 1 yard to the Tulan 11Similar
Q3 1:03
2ND & GOAL
OPP 11
-3
59.3%
Greg Ward Jr. run for a loss of 3 yards to the Tulan 14Similar
Q3 0:41
3RD & GOAL
OPP 14
+2
54.1%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Demarcus Ayers for 2 yds to the Tulan 12Similar
Q3 0:10
4TH & GOAL
OPP 12
+30
50.8%
Kyle Bullard 30 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 19TD
12 plays · 80 yds · 5:3853% → 85%
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+9
47.3%
Tanner Lee pass complete to Charles Jones for 9 yds to the Tulan 29Similar
Q4 14:48
2ND & 1
OWN 29
-3
45.2%
Dontrell Hilliard run for a loss of 3 yards to the Tulan 26Similar
Q4 14:00
3RD & 4
OWN 26
+10
47.0%
Tanner Lee pass complete to Justyn Shackleford for 10 yds to the Tulan 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:45
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+13
44.4%
Tanner Lee pass complete to Dontrell Hilliard for 13 yds to the Tulan 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:30
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+25
41.9%
Dontrell Hilliard run for 25 yds to the Houst 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:22
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+3
37.8%
Dontrell Hilliard run for 3 yds to the Houst 23Similar
Q4 11:55
2ND & 7
OPP 23
+10
37.0%
Danté Butler run for 10 yds to the Houst 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:19
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+7
36.1%
Tanner Lee pass complete to Teddy Veal for 7 yds to the Houst 6Similar
Q4 10:45
2ND & 3
OPP 6
+2
33.8%
Tanner Lee pass complete to Teddy Veal for 2 yds to the Houst 4Similar
Q4 10:45
3RD & 1
OPP 4
+3
35.5%
Danté Butler run for 3 yds to the Houst 1 Danté Butler fumbled, recovered by Tulan Danté Butler for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
33.5%
Dontrell Hilliard run for no gain to the Houst 1Similar
Q4 9:22
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
14.8%
Dontrell Hilliard 1 Yd Run (Andrew DiRocco Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 20INT
5 plays · 20 yds · 0:5818% → 18%
Q4 9:12
1ST & 10
OWN 6
0
17.8%
Greg Ward Jr. pass incomplete to Deontay GreenberrySimilar
Q4 9:06
2ND & 10
OWN 6
+12
17.4%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Markeith Ambles for 12 yds to the Houst 18Similar
Q4 8:40
3RD & 3
OWN 18
+8
16.7%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Wayne Beadle for 8 yds to the Houst 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:14
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
17.8%
Greg Ward Jr. pass intercepted Parry Nickerson return for no gain to the Houst 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 21FG
15 plays · 39 yds · 4:5086% → 97%
Q4 8:14
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+2
13.7%
Dontrell Hilliard run for 2 yds to the Houst 45Similar
Q4 7:00
2ND & 8
OPP 45
+1
11.8%
Dontrell Hilliard run for 1 yd to the Houst 44Similar
Q4 6:40
3RD & 7
OPP 44
+8
12.0%
Dontrell Hilliard run for 8 yds to the Houst 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:05
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+11
10.6%
Dontrell Hilliard run for 11 yds to the Houst 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:39
1ST & 10
OPP 25
-2
10.2%
Dontrell Hilliard run for a loss of 2 yards to the Houst 27Similar
Q4 4:45
2ND & 12
OPP 27
+2
9.7%
Danté Butler run for 2 yds to the Houst 25Similar
Q4 4:00
3RD & 10
OPP 25
+13
8.3%
Dontrell Hilliard run for 13 yds to the Houst 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:40
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+1
7.4%
Dontrell Hilliard run for 1 yd to the Houst 11Similar
Q4 3:35
2ND & 9
OPP 11
-3
6.6%
Dontrell Hilliard run for a loss of 3 yards to the Houst 14Similar
Q4 3:28
3RD & 12
OPP 14
+6
5.8%
Tanner Lee pass complete to Justyn Shackleford for 6 yds to the Houst 8Similar
Q4 3:24
4TH & 6
OPP 8
+25
2.6%
Andrew DiRocco 25 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 22TD
13 plays · 82 yds · 2:202% → 20%
Q4 3:24
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+9
1.9%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Steven Dunbar for 9 yds to the Houst 27Similar
Q4 3:00
2ND & 1
OWN 27
+7
1.7%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Wayne Beadle for 7 yds to the Houst 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:45
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+7
1.7%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Deontay Greenberry for 7 yds to the Houst 41Similar
Q4 2:40
2ND & 3
OWN 41
0
1.7%
Greg Ward Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:30
3RD & 3
OWN 41
+4
1.6%
Greg Ward Jr. run for 4 yds to the Houst 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:25
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+20
1.6%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Kenneth Farrow for 20 yds to the Tulan 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:20
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+7
1.9%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Wayne Beadle for 7 yds to the Tulan 28Similar
Q4 2:15
2ND & 3
OPP 28
0
2.0%
TEAM pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:00
3RD & 3
OPP 28
+9
1.6%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Steven Dunbar for 9 yds to the Tulan 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:55
1ST & 10
OPP 19
0
1.7%
TEAM pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:45
2ND & 10
OPP 19
+10
1.7%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Steven Dunbar for 10 yds to the Tulan 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:04
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
19.9%
Deontay Greenberry 9 Yd pass from Greg Ward Jr. (Kyle Bullard Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 23INT
10 plays · 48 yds · 1:0012% → 14%
Q4 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+4
12.2%
Greg Ward Jr. run for 4 yds to the Tulan 49Similar
Q4 0:55
2ND & 6
OPP 49
+14
13.4%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Steven Dunbar for 14 yds to the Tulan 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:45
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
15.4%
TEAM pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:30
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+27
13.9%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Steven Dunbar for 18 yds to the Tulan 17 for a 1ST down TULANE Penalty, Personal Foul (9 Yards) to the Tulan 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:29
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
0
17.2%
Greg Ward Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:15
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+3
17.7%
Greg Ward Jr. run for 3 yds to the Tulan 5Similar
Q4 0:10
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
0
15.8%
TEAM pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:00
4TH & GOAL
OPP 5
+12
14.3%
Greg Ward Jr. pass intercepted Parry Nickerson return for 12 yds to the Tulan 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 9:22
Dontrell Hilliard 1 Yd Run (Andrew DiRocco Kick)
-18.7
TD · Q4 1:04
Deontay Greenberry 9 Yd pass from Greg Ward Jr. (Kyle Bullard Kick)
+18.3
TD · Q3 5:39
Leondre James 9 Yd pass from Tanner Lee (Andrew DiRocco Kick)
-16.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com