Notre Dame

Profile vs. FBS, 2024

Farther out is better on every spoke. Dashed ring: the FBS median.

• EPA per play

  Expected points added on an average snap: how much each play moved the scoring odds.
  Offense+0.2588th
  Defense−0.1099th
• Success rate

  Share of snaps that stayed on schedule: half the yards needed on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of them on 3rd or 4th.
  Offense46.3%82nd
  Defense37.9%87th
• Explosiveness

  Average EPA on the successful snaps: how big the good plays were.
  Offense+1.2747th
  Defense+1.1093rd
• Rushing EPA

  EPA per designed run.
  Offense+0.2493rd
  Defense+0.0271st
• Passing EPA

  EPA per pass play.
  Offense+0.2572nd
  Defense−0.2499th
• Standard downs

  Success rate on downs where either a run or a pass makes sense, like 1st and 10 or 3rd and 2.
  Offense51.9%85th
  Defense42.0%92nd
• Passing downs

  Success rate on downs that all but force a pass, like 2nd and 8 or longer, or 3rd and 5 or longer.
  Offense32.7%59th
  Defense29.6%61st
• Line yards

  Rushing yards per carry credited to the offensive line, weighting the first few yards most.
  Offense3.1870th
  Defense2.9062nd
• Stuff rate

  Share of runs stopped at or behind the line of scrimmage.
  Offense15.0%77th
  Defense16.1%32nd
• Havoc

  Share of snaps with a tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception or pass breakup.
  Offense12.3%88th
  Defense18.5%75th

Percentiles among the 134 FBS teams this season, where higher is better for the offense and the defense alike (a defense's numbers are what it allowed). The line in each bar is the FBS median. Garbage time excluded. Source: CollegeFootballData.

Drives vs. expectation, 2024

Every snap has an expected-points value: what a drive from that spot, down and distance is worth on average. A drive over expected beat its starting spot; defense counts what Notre Dame allowed, so lower is better. The adjusted number fits every team against the opponents it actually played, so it leans toward average early in a season. Ranks are among FBS teams.

Game by game

1. W
   TA&M
2. L
   NIU
3. W
   PUR
4. W
   M-OH
5. W
   LOU
6. W
   STAN
7. W
   GT
8. W
   NAVY
9. W
   FSU
10. W
    UVA
11. W
    ARMY
12. W
    USC
13. W
    IU
14. W
    UGA
15. W
    PSU
16. L
    OSU

Bars above the line: better than expected for Notre Dame.

Players, 2024

1. Riley LeonardQB496 plays · +0.298 pts/play · 2nd of 232 QBs
   2.77WAR1.90 to 3.51
2. Jeremiyah LoveRB157 plays · +0.145 pts/play · 41st of 373 RBs
   0.43WAR0.29 to 0.55
3. Jadarian PriceRB96 plays · +0.119 pts/play · 140th of 373 RBs
   0.21WAR0.14 to 0.28
4. Mitchell EvansTE41 plays · +0.226 pts/play · 10th of 221 TEs
   0.17WAR0.08 to 0.27
5. Jaden GreathouseWR42 plays · +0.194 pts/play · 82nd of 452 WRs
   0.15WAR0.05 to 0.25
6. James RendellP43 plays · +0.140 pts/play · 26th of 106 punters
   0.11WAR0.06 to 0.17
7. Mitch JeterPK14 plays · +0.357 pts/play · 41st of 114 kickers
   0.09WAR0.06 to 0.13
8. Jordan FaisonWR29 plays · +0.171 pts/play · 151st of 452 WRs
   0.09WAR0.04 to 0.15

By position group, against FBS

Linemen and defenders are valued as units, in points per game against the median FBS unit, because play-by-play doesn't say who was on the field. Players are valued against a replacement-level backup, so the two aren't added together.

Wins above replacement credits each play's expected points to the players involved, adjusted for the opponent, and compares Notre Dame's players with a typical backup; 53 points make a win. Only snaps while the game was in doubt count, so a starter on a team that blows opponents out plays fewer of them: read value per play beside WAR. The line under each player (or the range on a phone) is the 90% interval. Ranks are among FBS teams and players. How this works

What it had and what it did, 2024

• Roster talent

  247Sports' talent composite: the recruiting ratings of every player on the roster, transfers included.
  90690610th of 131Roster talent: 906, 10th of 131 in FBS
• Recruiting

  Average 247Sports class score over this season's class and the three before it.
  27327310th of 131Recruiting: 273, 10th of 131 in FBS
• Returning production

  Share of last season's production (expected points added) by players still on the roster.
  37%37%83rd of 130Returning production: 37%, 83rd of 130 in FBS
• SP+ rating

  The result: Bill Connelly's opponent-adjusted rating, points per game better than an average FBS team.
  +23.9+23.98th of 131SP+ rating: +23.9, 8th of 131 in FBS

Ranks and bars among the 131 FBS teams with a talent rating this season, best first; the line in each bar is the FBS median.

Talent conversion

Conversion by season

Fourth-down calls vs. the numbers, 2024

Each real fourth down is valued three ways (go for it, kick, punt) from the score, clock and field position before the snap, using league-wide odds rather than Notre Dame's own. A call that differs gives up the gap to the best option; gaps under one point are close calls, and the 1 clear-cut one accounts for 0.01 of the 0.07 expected wins. The model sees the situation, not the injury report, so a call it disagrees with can still be right. Ranks are among FBS teams; 1st gave up the least.

Costliest calls against the numbers

1. vs NIUQ2 0:03 4th & 3 at NIU 30, down 6Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it1.0 pts
2. at USCQ2 10:39 4th & 9 at ND 26, down 1Went for it; the numbers favored punting (close call)0.7 pts
3. at TA&MQ3 0:32 4th & 3 at ND 27, up 7Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)0.6 pts
4. vs NIUQ2 3:16 4th & 4 at NIU 47, down 6Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)0.6 pts
5. at GTQ4 13:18 4th & 8 at ND 46, up 14Went for it; the numbers favored punting (close call)0.6 pts
6. vs LOUQ2 3:46 4th & 4 at LOU 30, up 7Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it (close call)0.5 pts
7. at TA&MQ2 1:49 4th & 9 at TA&M 40, tiedPunted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)0.5 pts
8. at USCQ2 5:16 4th & 4 at USC 9, down 1Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it (close call)0.4 pts

Record vs. expectation, 2024

12th of 134 FBS teams at beating the model's pregame expectations

Expected wins adds up Notre Dame's chance of winning each game as the model saw it at kickoff - a 70% favorite counts 0.7.

1. W

   TA&M
2. L

   NIU
3. W

   PUR
4. W

   M-OH
5. W

   LOU
6. W

   STAN
7. W

   GT
8. W

   NAVY
9. W

   FSU
10. W

    UVA
11. W

    ARMY
12. W

    USC
13. W

    IU
14. W

    UGA
15. W

    PSU
16. L

    OSU

What moved it, 2024

Every game starts at Notre Dame's pregame chance; everything after that is the field. The model's own breakdown of each game's final play splits the on-field part by what drove it, and the parts add up exactly. How it works →

• Scoreboard+3.21
• Possession & field position+0.04
• Clock+0.12
• Timeouts−0.17
• Other−0.03
• Less the pregame edge, counted before kickoff−0.87

Game by game

• TA&MW 23-13 at TA&M40% → 97%Before kickoff −10 · On the field +57: Scoreboard +54, Clock +3
• NIUL 14-16 vs NIU95% → 4%Before kickoff +45 · On the field −91: Scoreboard −30, Timeouts −18
• PURW 66-7 at PUR68% → 100%Before kickoff +18 · On the field +32: Scoreboard +37, Clock +1
• M-OHW 28-3 vs M-OH95% → 100%Before kickoff +45 · On the field +4: Scoreboard +7
• LOUW 31-24 vs LOU72% → 99%Before kickoff +22 · On the field +26: Scoreboard +29, Clock +1
• STANW 49-7 vs STAN91% → 100%Before kickoff +41 · On the field +9: Scoreboard +12
• GTW 31-13 at GT80% → 99%Before kickoff +30 · On the field +20: Scoreboard +28, Clock +1
• NAVYW 51-14 at NAVY86% → 100%Before kickoff +36 · On the field +14: Scoreboard +20, Clock +1
• FSUW 52-3 vs FSU94% → 100%Before kickoff +44 · On the field +6: Scoreboard +7
• UVAW 35-14 vs UVA92% → 100%Before kickoff +42 · On the field +8: Scoreboard +12, Clock −1
• ARMYW 49-14 vs ARMY86% → 100%Before kickoff +36 · On the field +14: Scoreboard +17
• USCW 49-35 at USC69% → 98%Before kickoff +19 · On the field +30: Scoreboard +39, Clock +2
• IUW 27-17 vs IU70% → 97%Before kickoff +20 · On the field +27: Scoreboard +30, Timeouts +1
• UGAW 23-10 at UGA47% → 98%Before kickoff −3 · On the field +51: Scoreboard +52, Clock +3
• PSUW 27-24 at PSU40% → 87%Before kickoff −10 · On the field +47: Scoreboard +42, Clock +4
• OSUL 23-34 vs OSU28% → 3%Before kickoff −22 · On the field −25: Scoreboard −36, Clock −2

Points of win probability, from Notre Dame's side.

Closest call

ND 32-29 VT (2021) - Notre Dame dropped to a 5.4% win probability before pulling it out.