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UVA

Virginia 14 at Notre Dame 35

ND
2024 · Week 12 · Nov 16, 2024 · Notre Dame Stadium
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Win probability · ND
modelND aheadUVA aheadconfidence bandkey playND scoreUVA score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:16 · (00:16) Kneel down by ANGELI, Steve at UND23 (team loss of 2), clock 00:04.
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout marginGarbage-time factor
+41.5+20.80−20.8−41.5Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. KEY PLAY · Q2 10:16: Jeremiyah Love run for 8 yds to the ND 20 — ND win probability +2.3 pts (now 90%) (top driver: ND has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 6:34: Riley Leonard pass complete to Jayden Harrison for 8 yds for a TD (Mitch Jeter KICK) — ND win probability +3.1 pts (now 94%) (top driver: ND has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 2:20: Riley Leonard pass complete to Cooper Flanagan for 2 yds for a TD (Mitch Jeter KICK) — ND win probability +4.9 pts (now 97%) (top driver: ND has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 0:49: Riley Leonard pass complete to Mitchell Evans for 16 yds for a TD (Mitch Jeter KICK) — ND win probability +1.7 pts (now 99%) (top driver: ND has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 0:18: Tony Muskett run for 2 yds for a TD (Will Bettridge KICK) — UVA win probability +0.4 pts (now 0%) (top driver: UVA has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ND made the numbers' call on 8 of 10UVA made the numbers' call on 8 of 10
  1. Q1 11:20UVA 4th & 3 at UVA 32, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.4%−<0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    9.4%
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:28ND 4th & 4 at ND 26, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 90.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.4%−<0.1
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    90.4%
    average punt
  3. Q1 7:50UVA 4th & 2 at UVA 46, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 9.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    10.0%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    9.9%−0.1
    average punt
  4. Q1 5:32ND 4th & 9 at UVA 45, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 89.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.7%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    89.6%−0.2
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    89.7%
    average punt
  5. Q1 4:07UVA 4th & 5 at UVA 19, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.2%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    10.2%
    average punt
  6. Q1 2:00ND 4th & 3 at ND 44, up 7
    Close callPunted · 89.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.2%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    89.1%−0.1
    average punt
  7. Q2 14:48UVA 4th & 6 at UVA 39, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.3%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.3%
    average punt
  8. Q2 12:49ND 4th & 4 at ND 35, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 88.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.1%−<0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    88.2%
    average punt
  9. Q2 11:40UVA 4th & 8 at UVA 17, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.1%−0.4
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.5%
    average punt
  10. Q2 5:16UVA 4th & 3 at UVA 32, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.2%−<0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    9.2%
    average punt
  11. Q2 3:16ND 4th & 11 at ND 22, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 90.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.8%−1.0
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    90.7%
    average punt
  12. Q3 11:07UVA 4th & 5 at midfield, down 28
    Close callPunted · 0.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.7%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.7%−<0.1
    average punt
  13. Q3 7:52UVA 4th & 1 at ND 18, down 35
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    0.4%−0.2
    79% to make
    Punt
    -0.3%−0.9
    average punt
  14. Q3 1:57ND 4th & 1 at UVA 15, up 28
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    99.6%−0.1
    83% to make
    Punt
    99.1%−0.6
    average punt
  15. Q4 14:53ND 4th & 5 at UVA 5, up 28
    Close callWent for it · 99.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.8%−<0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    99.8%
    92% to make
    Punt
    99.3%−0.5
    average punt
  16. Q4 12:17UVA 4th & 16 at UVA 10, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    -0.0%−0.1
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%
    average punt
  17. Q4 10:44ND 4th & 1 at UVA 33, up 28
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    99.6%−0.2
    49% to make
    Punt
    99.6%−0.2
    average punt
  18. Q4 8:25ND 4th & 1 at UVA 21, up 28
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    99.7%−0.1
    74% to make
    Punt
    99.3%−0.5
    average punt
  19. Q4 6:06ND 4th & 10 at UVA 18, up 28
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.8%−0.1
    27% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    99.9%
    79% to make
    Punt
    99.5%−0.4
    average punt
  20. Q4 3:25UVA 4th & 2 at ND 45, down 28
    Close callWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.1%−<0.1
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    0.1%
    25% to make
    Punt
    0.0%−<0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ND made the numbers' call on 5 of 5UVA made the numbers' call on 1 of 2
  1. Q1 13:04ND Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    90.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 6:34ND Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    91.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    91.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 2:20ND Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 0:49ND Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 9:38ND Touchdown, up 34 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 7:52UVA Touchdown, down 29 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 0:18UVA Touchdown, down 22 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.5%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.5%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
NDDrive 1TD
4 plays · 25 yds · 1:4992% → 91%
Q1 14:53
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+10
91.6%
Jeremiyah Love run for 10 yds to the UVA 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:24
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+4
91.5%
Riley Leonard run for 4 yds to the UVA 11Similar
Q1 13:50
2ND & 6
OPP 11
+2
91.4%
Riley Leonard run for 2 yds to the UVA 9Similar
Q1 13:04
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
91.4%
Jeremiyah Love run for 4 yds for a TD (Mitch Jeter KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 2PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 1:449% → 9%
Q1 13:04
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
91.3%
Anthony Colandrea pass complete to Tyler Neville for 3 yds to the UVA 28Similar
Q1 12:33
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+3
91.2%
Kobe Pace run for 3 yds to the UVA 31Similar
Q1 11:58
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+1
91.1%
Anthony Colandrea run for 1 yd to the UVA 32Similar
Q1 11:20
4TH & 3
OWN 32
+3
91.1%
Daniel Sparks punt for 51 yds , Max Hurleman returns for 3 yds to the ND 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:4391% → 91%
Q1 11:11
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
91.1%
Riley Leonard pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:07
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+6
91.1%
Jeremiyah Love run for 6 yds to the ND 26Similar
Q1 10:31
3RD & 4
OWN 26
0
91.0%
Riley Leonard pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:28
4TH & 4
OWN 26
+1
90.9%
James Rendell punt for 64 yds , Ethan Davies returns for 1 yd to the UVA 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 4DOWNS
8 plays · 35 yds · 2:279% → 8%
Q1 10:14
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+27
91.0%
Anthony Colandrea pass complete to Malachi Fields for 27 yds to the UVA 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:36
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-5
90.8%
Virginia Penalty, False Start (Ethan Davies) to the UVA 33Similar
Q1 9:21
1ST & 15
OWN 33
0
90.9%
Anthony Colandrea pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:14
2ND & 15
OWN 33
-1
90.9%
Xavier Brown run for a loss of 1 yard to the UVA 32Similar
Q1 8:35
3RD & 16
OWN 32
+14
90.9%
Anthony Colandrea run for 14 yds to the UVA 46Similar
Q1 7:50
4TH & 2
OWN 46
0
90.5%
Anthony Colandrea pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:47
1ST & 10
OPP 46
-10
91.6%
(07:47) LOVE, Jeremiyah rush up the middle for a gain of 5 yards to the UVA41 (SANKER, Jonas;THOMAS, JR., Corey), clock 07:40. PENALTY UND Holding on COOGAN, Pat enforced 10 yards from the UVA46 to the UND44 [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 1:5592% → 91%
Q1 7:27
1ST & 20
OWN 44
-1
91.5%
Riley Leonard run for a loss of 1 yard to the ND 43Similar
Q1 6:50
2ND & 21
OWN 43
+5
91.4%
Riley Leonard run for 5 yds to the ND 48Similar
Q1 6:12
3RD & 16
OWN 48
+7
91.3%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Mitchell Evans for 7 yds to the UVA 45Similar
Q1 5:32
4TH & 9
OPP 45
0
91.2%
James Rendell punt for 31 yds, fair catch by Ethan Davies at the UVA 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 6PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 1:2010% → 10%
Q1 5:27
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+2
90.2%
Kobe Pace run for 2 yds to the UVA 16Similar
Q1 4:54
2ND & 8
OWN 16
+3
90.1%
Kobe Pace run for 3 yds to the UVA 19Similar
Q1 4:13
3RD & 5
OWN 19
0
90.0%
Anthony Colandrea pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:07
4TH & 5
OWN 19
-3
90.1%
Daniel Sparks punt for 41 yds , Max Hurleman returns for a loss of 3 yards to the ND 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 1:5491% → 91%
Q1 3:54
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+3
91.4%
Jadarian Price run for 3 yds to the ND 40Similar
Q1 3:22
2ND & 7
OWN 40
-10
91.4%
(03:22) LEONARD, Riley pass to the right incomplete intended for COLLINS, Beaux thrown to the UVA47, clock 03:18. PENALTY UND Holding on RARIDON, Eli enforced 10 yards from the UND40 to the UND30 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 3:18
2ND & 17
OWN 30
+4
91.1%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Kris Mitchell for 4 yds to the ND 34Similar
Q1 2:40
3RD & 13
OWN 34
+10
90.9%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Aneyas Williams for 10 yds to the ND 44Similar
Q1 2:00
4TH & 3
OWN 44
+7
90.9%
James Rendell punt for 46 yds , Ethan Davies returns for 7 yds to the UVA 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 8PUNT
7 plays · 22 yds · 2:0210% → 11%
Q1 1:50
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+6
89.6%
Anthony Colandrea run for 6 yds to the UVA 23Similar
Q1 1:34
2ND & 4
OWN 23
0
89.4%
Xavier Brown run for no gain to the UVA 23Similar
Q1 0:58
3RD & 4
OWN 23
+12
89.6%
Anthony Colandrea pass complete to Dakota Twitty for 12 yds to the UVA 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:38
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
89.2%
Xavier Brown run for 4 yds to the UVA 39Similar
Q2 14:58
2ND & 6
OWN 39
0
88.7%
Malachi Fields pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:52
3RD & 6
OWN 39
0
89.0%
Anthony Colandrea pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:48
4TH & 6
OWN 39
+1
89.3%
Daniel Sparks punt for 33 yds , Max Hurleman returns for 1 yd to the ND 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 9PUNT
6 plays · 6 yds · 1:5791% → 89%
Q2 14:37
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+5
90.7%
Jeremiyah Love run for 5 yds to the ND 34Similar
Q2 14:03
2ND & 5
OWN 34
-10
90.7%
Jeremiyah Love run for a loss of 10 yards to the ND 24Similar
Q2 13:08
3RD & 15
OWN 24
+11
90.2%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Jordan Faison for 11 yds to the ND 35Similar
Q2 12:49
4TH & 4
OWN 35
+50
90.1%
James Rendell punt for 50 yds , Ethan Davies returns for no gain to the UVA 15 , returns for no gain to the UVA 15Similar
Q2 12:40
1ST & 10
OWN 15
-5
88.8%
Virginia Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the UVA 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 10PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 1:0011% → 11%
Q2 12:40
1ST & 15
OWN 10
+3
88.8%
Xavier Brown run for 3 yds to the UVA 13Similar
Q2 12:20
2ND & 12
OWN 13
0
88.8%
Anthony Colandrea pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:17
3RD & 12
OWN 13
+4
89.1%
Xavier Brown run for 4 yds to the UVA 17Similar
Q2 11:40
4TH & 8
OWN 17
+41
89.1%
Daniel Sparks punt for 41 yds , Max Hurleman returns for no gain to the ND 42 , returns for no gain to the ND 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 11FUMBLE
4 plays · 30 yds · 1:0512% → 12%
Q2 11:34
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
87.7%
Anthony Colandrea pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:29
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+15
87.8%
Xavier Brown run for 15 yds to the ND 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:08
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+1
87.9%
Xavier Brown run for 1 yd to the ND 26Similar
Q2 10:29
2ND & 9
OPP 26
+14
87.8%
Kobe Pace run for 14 yds to the ND 12 Kobe Pace fumbled, recovered by ND Xavier Watts X. Watts return for 0 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 12TD
11 plays · 88 yds · 3:4290% → 94%
Q2 10:16
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+8
90.2%
Jeremiyah Love run for 8 yds to the ND 20Similar
Q2 9:51
2ND & 2
OWN 20
+3
90.3%
Jeremiyah Love run for 3 yds to the ND 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:24
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+3
90.2%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Mitchell Evans for 3 yds to the ND 26Similar
Q2 9:01
2ND & 7
OWN 26
+10
90.4%
Virginia Penalty, Defensive Holding (Michael Diatta) to the UVA 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:43
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+17
91.1%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Jaden Greathouse for 17 yds to the UVA 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:23
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+8
91.0%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Jayden Harrison for 8 yds to the UVA 19Similar
Q2 7:55
2ND & 2
OPP 19
+8
90.8%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Kris Mitchell for 8 yds to the UVA 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:14
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+3
90.9%
Jeremiyah Love run for 3 yds to the UVA 8Similar
Q2 6:34
2ND & 7
OPP 8
+8
94.0%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Jayden Harrison for 8 yds for a TD (Mitch Jeter KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 13PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:168% → 8%
Q2 6:32
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
92.1%
Anthony Colandrea pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:29
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+3
92.2%
Anthony Colandrea pass complete to Tyler Neville for 3 yds to the UVA 28Similar
Q2 5:49
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+4
92.3%
Anthony Colandrea pass complete to Tyler Neville for 4 yds to the UVA 32Similar
Q2 5:16
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
92.4%
Daniel Sparks punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Max Hurleman at the ND 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 14PUNT
7 plays · -1 yds · 1:5594% → 93%
Q2 5:11
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
93.8%
Riley Leonard pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:04
2ND & 10
OWN 23
-1
93.8%
Riley Leonard sacked by Jonas Sanker for a loss of 1 yard to the ND 22Similar
Q2 4:23
3RD & 11
OWN 22
-11
93.2%
(04:23) LEONARD, Riley pass deep up the middle complete for 78 yards to HARRISON, Jayden caught at the UND50 and advanced to the UVA0, TOUCHDOWN UND, score nullified by penalty, clock 04:13 (Play was confirmed after review). PENALTY UND Personal Foul on COOGAN, Pat enforced half the distance from the goal, 11 yards from the UND22 to the UND11 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 4:13
3RD & 22
OWN 11
+16
93.4%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Beaux Collins for 16 yds to the ND 27Similar
Q2 3:19
4TH & 6
OWN 27
-5
93.4%
FAISON, Jordan rush to the left for a gain of 73 yards to the UVA0, TOUCHDOWN UND, score nullified by penalty, clock 03:19 (Play was confirmed after review). PENALTY Before the snap, UND Illegal Formation enforced 5 yards from the UND27 to the UND22. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 3:16
4TH & 11
OWN 22
+2
93.4%
James Rendell punt for 47 yds , Ethan Davies returns for 2 yds to the UVA 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 15INT
3 plays · 2 yds · 0:318% → 8%
Q2 3:05
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
92.1%
Anthony Colandrea pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:05
2ND & 10
OWN 33
+2
92.1%
Anthony Colandrea run for 2 yds to the UVA 35Similar
Q2 2:34
3RD & 8
OWN 35
-46
92.4%
Anthony Colandrea pass intercepted Adon Shuler return for 46 yds to the UVA 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 16TD
1 play · 2 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
Q2 2:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
97.3%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Cooper Flanagan for 2 yds for a TD (Mitch Jeter KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 17INT
6 plays · 6 yds · 0:424% → 4%
Q2 2:17
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
96.3%
Anthony Colandrea pass complete to Suderian Harrison for 4 yds to the UVA 29Similar
Q2 1:58
2ND & 6
OWN 29
0
96.4%
Anthony Colandrea pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:56
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+12
96.5%
Anthony Colandrea pass complete to Malachi Fields for 12 yds to the UVA 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:41
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-10
96.3%
(01:41) COLANDREA, Anthony pass to the left incomplete thrown to the UND48, clock 01:35. PENALTY UVA Holding on STEEN, Blake enforced 10 yards from the UVA41 to the UVA31 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 1:35
1ST & 20
OWN 31
-6
96.5%
Anthony Colandrea pass intercepted Leonard Moore return for 6 yds to the UVA 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 18TD
3 plays · 32 yds · 0:3497% → 99%
Q2 1:23
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+8
97.4%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Mitchell Evans for 8 yds to the UVA 24Similar
Q2 1:18
2ND & 2
OPP 24
+8
97.3%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Aneyas Williams for 8 yds to the UVA 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:49
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+16
99.0%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Mitchell Evans for 16 yds for a TD (Mitch Jeter KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 19INT
5 plays · 17 yds · 0:241% → 1%
Q2 0:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
98.8%
Xavier Brown run for 13 yds to the UVA 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:33
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
98.8%
Anthony Colandrea pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:29
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+4
98.8%
Anthony Colandrea pass complete to Malachi Fields for 4 yds to the UVA 42Similar
Q2 0:21
3RD & 6
OWN 42
-2
99.0%
Anthony Colandrea pass intercepted Xavier Watts return for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 20MISSED FG
4 plays · 14 yds · 0:1699% → 99%
Q2 0:17
1ST & 10
50
+7
99.0%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Jayden Thomas for 7 yds to the UVA 43Similar
Q2 0:07
2ND & 3
OPP 43
+7
99.0%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Jayden Thomas for 7 yds to the UVA 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:07
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
99.0%
Riley Leonard pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:01
2ND & 10
OPP 36
+54
99.1%
Marcello Diomede 54 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 21INT
8 plays · 35 yds · 2:4399% → 99%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 16
0
99.1%
Riley Leonard pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 14:49
2ND & 10
OWN 16
+14
99.1%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Jordan Faison for 14 yds to the ND 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:27
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+8
99.1%
Jeremiyah Love run for 8 yds to the ND 38Similar
Q3 14:02
2ND & 2
OWN 38
+6
99.1%
Riley Leonard run for 6 yds to the ND 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:25
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+2
99.2%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Jeremiyah Love for 2 yds to the ND 46Similar
Q3 12:49
2ND & 8
OWN 46
+5
99.3%
Jadarian Price run for 5 yds to the UVA 49Similar
Q3 12:12
3RD & 3
OPP 49
0
99.3%
Riley Leonard pass intercepted Trey McDonald return for no gain to the UVA 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 22PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:581% → 1%
Q3 12:05
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+2
99.2%
Xavier Brown run for 2 yds to the UVA 47Similar
Q3 11:35
2ND & 8
OWN 47
+3
99.2%
Tony Muskett pass complete to Chris Tyree for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 11:10
3RD & 5
50
0
99.2%
Tony Muskett pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 11:07
4TH & 5
50
+37
99.3%
Daniel Sparks punt for 37 yds , Max Hurleman returns for a loss of 1 yard to the ND 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 23TD
3 plays · 88 yds · 1:2199% → 100%
Q3 10:59
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+8
99.2%
Jadarian Price run for 8 yds to the ND 20Similar
Q3 10:26
2ND & 2
OWN 20
+4
99.2%
Jeremiyah Love run for 4 yds to the ND 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:38
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+76
99.5%
Jeremiyah Love run for 76 yds for a TD (Zac Yoakam KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 24TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 1:461% → 1%
Q3 9:38
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
99.5%
(09:38) MUSKETT, Tony pass deep to the right incomplete intended for FIELDS, Malachi thrown to the UVA45, clock 09:33. PENALTY UND Holding on MOORE, Leonard enforced 10 yards from the UVA25 to the UVA35 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 9:31
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+38
99.5%
Tony Muskett pass complete to Malachi Fields for 38 yds Malachi Fields fumbled, recovered by UVA Malachi Fields M. Fields return for 0 yds for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:22
1ST & 10
OPP 27
-8
99.5%
Tony Muskett sacked by Donovan Hinish for a loss of 8 yards to the ND 35Similar
Q3 8:12
2ND & 18
OPP 35
0
99.6%
Tony Muskett pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:12
3RD & 18
OPP 35
+17
99.6%
Tony Muskett pass complete to Tyler Neville for 17 yds to the ND 18Similar
Q3 7:52
4TH & 1
OPP 18
+18
99.1%
Tony Muskett run for 18 yds for a TD (Will Bettridge KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 25DOWNS
15 plays · 72 yds · 7:53100% → 100%
Q3 7:46
1ST & 10
OWN 23
-10
99.6%
Notre Dame Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the ND 20Similar
Q3 7:15
1ST & 13
OWN 20
+4
99.6%
Aneyas Williams run for 4 yds to the ND 24Similar
Q3 6:54
2ND & 9
OWN 24
+1
99.6%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Deion Colzie for 1 yd to the ND 25Similar
Q3 6:17
3RD & 8
OWN 25
-5
99.6%
Notre Dame Penalty, False Start (Aneyas Williams) to the ND 20Similar
Q3 6:02
3RD & 13
OWN 20
+25
99.7%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Jayden Harrison for 25 yds to the ND 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:22
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+17
99.7%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Aneyas Williams for 17 yds to the UVA 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:36
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+14
99.7%
Riley Leonard run for 14 yds to the UVA 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:03
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+1
99.7%
Jadarian Price run for 1 yd to the UVA 23Similar
Q3 3:17
2ND & 9
OPP 23
+5
99.8%
Jeremiyah Love run for 5 yds to the UVA 18Similar
Q3 2:39
3RD & 4
OPP 18
+3
99.8%
Riley Leonard run for 3 yds to the UVA 15Similar
Q3 1:57
4TH & 1
OPP 15
+5
99.8%
Jeremiyah Love run for 5 yds to the UVA 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:14
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+1
99.8%
Jeremiyah Love run for 1 yd to the UVA 9Similar
Q3 0:26
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+4
99.8%
Jeremiyah Love run for 4 yds to the UVA 5Similar
Q4 14:58
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
0
99.8%
Riley Leonard pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:53
4TH & GOAL
OPP 5
0
99.8%
Riley Leonard pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 26PUNT
10 plays · 5 yds · 2:370% → 0%
Q4 14:45
2ND & 10
OWN 5
-1
99.8%
Xavier Brown run for a loss of 1 yard to the UVA 4Similar
Q4 14:44
1ST & 10
OWN 5
0
99.8%
Tony Muskett pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:58
3RD & 11
OWN 4
+12
99.9%
Xavier Brown run for 12 yds to the UVA 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:34
1ST & 10
OWN 16
0
99.8%
Tony Muskett pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:30
2ND & 10
OWN 16
+3
99.9%
Kobe Pace run for 3 yds to the UVA 19Similar
Q4 12:53
3RD & 7
OWN 19
-9
99.9%
Tony Muskett sacked by Jack Kiser for a loss of 9 yards to the UVA 10Similar
Q4 12:17
4TH & 16
OWN 10
0
99.9%
Daniel Sparks punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Max Hurleman at the UVA 42Similar
Q4 12:08
1ST & 10
OPP 42
-15
99.9%
LEONARD, Riley pass up the middle incomplete intended for LOVE, Jeremiyah thrown to the UVA45, clock 12:08. PENALTY UND Personal Foul on WAGNER, Aamil enforced 15 yards from the UVA42 to the UND43 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 27MISSED FG
12 plays · 24 yds · 5:59100% → 100%
Q4 12:05
1ST & 25
OWN 43
+9
99.9%
Aneyas Williams run for 9 yds to the UVA 48Similar
Q4 11:33
2ND & 16
OPP 48
0
99.9%
Riley Leonard pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:27
3RD & 16
OPP 48
+15
99.9%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Deion Colzie for 15 yds to the UVA 33Similar
Q4 10:44
4TH & 1
OPP 33
+3
99.9%
Aneyas Williams run for 3 yds to the UVA 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:02
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+5
99.9%
Jeremiyah Love run for 5 yds to the UVA 25Similar
Q4 9:16
2ND & 5
OPP 25
0
99.9%
Riley Leonard pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:08
3RD & 5
OPP 25
+4
99.9%
Aneyas Williams run for 4 yds to the UVA 21Similar
Q4 8:25
4TH & 1
OPP 21
+3
99.9%
Aneyas Williams run for 3 yds to the UVA 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:40
1ST & 10
OPP 18
-1
99.9%
Aneyas Williams run for a loss of 1 yard to the UVA 19Similar
Q4 6:57
2ND & 11
OPP 19
+1
99.9%
Aneyas Williams run for 1 yd to the UVA 18Similar
Q4 6:09
3RD & 10
OPP 18
0
99.9%
Riley Leonard pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:06
4TH & 10
OPP 18
+36
99.9%
Zac Yoakam 36 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 28TD
19 plays · 80 yds · 5:420% → 0%
Q4 6:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
99.9%
Tony Muskett pass complete to JR Wilson for 4 yds to the UVA 24Similar
Q4 5:37
2ND & 6
OWN 24
0
100.0%
Tony Muskett pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:33
3RD & 6
OWN 24
+7
100.0%
Noah Vaughn run for 7 yds to the UVA 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:04
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+16
99.9%
Tony Muskett pass complete to Jaden Gibson for 16 yds to the UVA 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:43
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+6
99.9%
Tony Muskett run for 6 yds to the ND 47Similar
Q4 4:27
2ND & 4
OPP 47
+1
99.9%
Tony Muskett pass complete to JR Wilson for 1 yd to the ND 46Similar
Q4 3:59
3RD & 3
OPP 46
+1
99.9%
Noah Vaughn run for 1 yd to the ND 45Similar
Q4 3:25
4TH & 2
OPP 45
+3
99.9%
Noah Vaughn run for 3 yds to the ND 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:56
1ST & 10
OPP 42
-5
100.0%
Virginia Penalty, False Start (Sackett Wood Jr.) to the ND 47Similar
Q4 2:37
1ST & 15
OPP 47
+1
100.0%
Davis Lane Jr. run for 1 yd to the ND 46Similar
Q4 2:02
2ND & 14
OPP 46
+13
100.0%
Tony Muskett pass complete to Noah Vaughn for 13 yds to the ND 33Similar
Q4 1:57
3RD & 1
OPP 33
+6
100.0%
Notre Dame Penalty, Personal Foul (Kobi Onyiuke) to the ND 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:49
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+5
100.0%
Tony Muskett pass complete to TyLyric Coleman for 5 yds to the ND 9Similar
Q4 1:10
2ND & 5
OPP 9
+6
100.0%
Tony Muskett pass complete to Jaden Gibson for 6 yds to the ND 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
99.9%
Noah Vaughn run for 2 yds to the ND 1Similar
Q4 0:29
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
-1
99.9%
Noah Vaughn run for a loss of 1 yard to the ND 2Similar
Q4 0:18
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
99.6%
Tony Muskett run for 2 yds for a TD (Will Bettridge KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 29END OF GAME
1 play · -2 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 0:16
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
99.8%
(00:16) Kneel down by ANGELI, Steve at UND23 (team loss of 2), clock 00:04.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 2:20
Riley Leonard pass complete to Cooper Flanagan for 2 yds for a TD (Mitch Jeter KICK)
+4.9
TD · Q2 6:34
Riley Leonard pass complete to Jayden Harrison for 8 yds for a TD (Mitch Jeter KICK)
+3.1
KEY PLAY · Q2 10:16
Jeremiyah Love run for 8 yds to the ND 20
+2.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com