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Notre Dame 27 at Penn State 24

PSU
2024 · College Football Playoff Semifinal at the Capital One Orange Bowl · Jan 9, 2025 · Hard Rock Stadium
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Win probability · PSU
modelPSU aheadND aheadconfidence bandkey playPSU scoreND score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDFGTDTDTDTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:00 · Drew Allar pass complete to Tyler Warren for 3 yds to the PSU 21 lat. to Harrison Wallace III for a loss of 3 yards to the PSU 21 lat. to Drew Allar for a loss of 4 yards Drew Allar fumbled, recovered by PSU
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+34.5+17.30−17.3−34.5Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q4 14:07: Jeremiyah Love run for 2 yds for a TD (Mitch Jeter KICK) — ND win probability +23.7 pts (now 76%) (top driver: ND has the ball).
  2. TD · Q4 10:20: Nicholas Singleton run for 7 yds for a TD (Ryan Barker KICK) — PSU win probability +26.8 pts (now 65%) (top driver: PSU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 7:55: Nicholas Singleton run for 7 yds for a TD (Ryan Barker KICK) — PSU win probability +23.7 pts (now 89%) (top driver: PSU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 4:38: Riley Leonard pass complete to Jaden Greathouse for 54 yds for a TD (Mitch Jeter KICK) — ND win probability +36.3 pts (now 53%) (top driver: ND has the ball).
  5. FG · Q4 0:07: Mitch Jeter 41 yd FG GOOD — ND win probability +39.7 pts (now 94%) (top driver: ND has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
PSU made the numbers' call on 5 of 8ND made the numbers' call on 4 of 5
  1. Q1 12:26PSU 4th & 8 at ND 44, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 55.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.4%−<0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    55.3%−0.1
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    55.4%
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:35ND 4th & 8 at PSU 41, tied
    Close callPunted · 44.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.7%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    44.5%−0.1
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    44.6%−<0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 5:56PSU 4th & 5 at PSU 20, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 55.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.9%−0.2
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    55.0%
    average punt
  4. Q1 3:06PSU 4th & 2 at ND 37, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 56.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    56.5%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    56.0%−0.6
    40% to make
    Punt
    55.9%−0.6
    average punt
  5. Q2 14:52PSU 4th & 3 at ND 3, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 56.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.1%
    44% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    56.7%−0.4
    93% to make
    Punt
    54.3%−2.8
    average punt
  6. Q2 9:35ND 4th & 7 at ND 49, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 41.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.4%−0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    41.5%
    average punt
  7. Q2 4:05PSU 4th & 2 at ND 16, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 60.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    61.0%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    59.9%−1.0
    81% to make
    Punt
    54.6%−6.4
    average punt
  8. Q3 8:41PSU 4th & 2 at PSU 30, tied
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.5 ptsPunted · 55.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.6%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    56.1%−1.5
    average punt
  9. Q3 6:32ND 4th & 10 at ND 41, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 44.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.5%−2.7
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    46.2%
    average punt
  10. Q3 4:26PSU 4th & 15 at PSU 32, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 54.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.6%−5.3
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    56.9%
    average punt
  11. Q4 2:34PSU 4th & 3 at PSU 32, tied
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.3 ptsPunted · 55.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.9%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    54.6%−1.3
    average punt
  12. Q4 0:47ND 4th & 9 at PSU 48, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 49.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.9%−1.0
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    46.9%
    average punt
  13. Q4 0:07ND 4th & 8 at PSU 23, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 52.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.3%−16.2
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    55.6%
    70% to make
    Punt
    26.7%−28.8
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
PSU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3ND made the numbers' call on 2 of 3
  1. Q2 2:18PSU Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    71.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    71.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q3 10:46ND Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    41.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    41.2%−0.2
    45% to convert
  3. Q4 14:07ND Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    65.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    64.6%−0.3
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 10:20PSU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    51.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    51.4%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 7:55PSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    80.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    79.7%−0.6
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 4:38ND Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    42.0%−0.3
    97% to make
    Go for two
    42.3%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
PSUDrive 1PUNT
7 plays · 31 yds · 2:2860% → 60%
Q1 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
60.2%
Nicholas Singleton run for 6 yds to the PSU 31Similar
Q1 14:12
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+23
60.2%
Drew Allar pass complete to Nicholas Singleton for 23 yds to the ND 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:39
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+1
60.4%
Nicholas Singleton run for 1 yd to the ND 45Similar
Q1 13:09
2ND & 9
OPP 45
0
60.4%
Drew Allar pass incomplete to Omari EvansSimilar
Q1 13:01
3RD & 14
50
+6
60.2%
Drew Allar pass complete to Kaytron Allen for 6 yds to the ND 44Similar
Q1 12:26
4TH & 8
OPP 44
0
60.2%
Riley Thompson punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Max Hurleman at the ND 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 2PUNT
9 plays · 48 yds · 3:4740% → 40%
Q1 12:22
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+6
60.2%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Mitchell Evans for 6 yds to the ND 17Similar
Q1 11:45
2ND & 4
OWN 17
+5
60.2%
Jeremiyah Love run for 5 yds to the ND 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:20
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+2
60.2%
Riley Leonard run for 2 yds to the ND 24Similar
Q1 10:43
2ND & 8
OWN 24
+1
60.1%
Jeremiyah Love run for 1 yd to the ND 25Similar
Q1 10:03
3RD & 7
OWN 25
+32
60.3%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Mitchell Evans for 32 yds to the PSU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:27
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+2
59.6%
Aneyas Williams run for 2 yds to the PSU 41Similar
Q1 8:47
2ND & 8
OPP 41
0
59.3%
Riley Leonard pass incomplete to Mitchell Evans, broken up by Amin VanoverSimilar
Q1 8:42
3RD & 8
OPP 41
0
59.4%
Riley Leonard pass incomplete to Mitchell Evans, broken up by A.J. HarrisSimilar
Q1 8:35
4TH & 8
OPP 41
0
59.9%
James Rendell punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Zion Tracy at the PSU 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 3PUNT
7 plays · 18 yds · 2:3460% → 59%
Q1 8:30
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+1
59.8%
Kaytron Allen run for 1 yd to the PSU 3Similar
Q1 7:48
2ND & 9
OWN 3
+6
59.8%
Kaytron Allen run for 6 yds to the PSU 9Similar
Q1 7:08
3RD & 3
OWN 9
+6
59.5%
Kaytron Allen run for 6 yds to the PSU 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:50
1ST & 10
OWN 15
0
59.9%
Drew Allar pass incomplete to Harrison Wallace IIISimilar
Q1 6:44
2ND & 10
OWN 15
+5
60.0%
Kaytron Allen run for 5 yds to the PSU 20Similar
Q1 6:04
3RD & 5
OWN 20
0
59.6%
Drew Allar pass incomplete to Harrison Wallace III, broken up by Jordan ClarkSimilar
Q1 5:56
4TH & 5
OWN 20
0
59.3%
Riley Thompson punt for 45 yds , Max Hurleman returns for no gain to the ND 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 4INT
4 plays · -2 yds · 1:0840% → 40%
Q1 5:51
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
59.7%
Riley Leonard pass incomplete to Jayden Harrison, broken up by Abdul CarterSimilar
Q1 5:47
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+3
59.8%
Riley Leonard run for 3 yds to the ND 38Similar
Q1 5:11
3RD & 7
OWN 38
-5
59.7%
Notre Dame Penalty, False Start (Anthonie Knapp) to the ND 33Similar
Q1 4:43
3RD & 12
OWN 33
0
60.2%
Riley Leonard pass intercepted Zakee Wheatley return for no gain to the PSU 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 5FG
15 plays · 55 yds · 4:4761% → 62%
Q1 4:39
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
60.8%
Drew Allar pass incomplete to Nicholas SingletonSimilar
Q1 4:30
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+13
60.4%
Drew Allar pass complete to Tyler Warren for 13 yds to the ND 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:15
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+4
61.2%
Nicholas Singleton run for 4 yds to the ND 41Similar
Q1 3:54
2ND & 6
OPP 41
0
61.3%
Drew Allar pass incomplete to Tyler WarrenSimilar
Q1 3:49
3RD & 6
OPP 41
+4
61.0%
Nicholas Singleton run for 4 yds to the ND 37Similar
Q1 3:06
4TH & 2
OPP 37
+8
60.5%
Nicholas Singleton run for 8 yds to the ND 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:32
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+7
61.8%
Kaytron Allen run for 7 yds to the ND 22Similar
Q1 1:45
2ND & 3
OPP 22
+7
61.9%
Drew Allar pass complete to Luke Reynolds for 7 yds to the ND 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:05
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+6
62.0%
Nicholas Singleton run for 6 yds to the ND 9Similar
Q1 0:45
2ND & 4
OPP 9
0
62.0%
Drew Allar pass incomplete to Nicholas SingletonSimilar
Q1 0:38
3RD & 4
OPP 9
+5
61.5%
Allar, Drew pass pass intercepted by Gray, Christian at the NOTREDAME0, Gray, Christian return 0 yards to the NOTREDAME0, PENALTY NOTREDAME holding (Gray, Christian) 5 yards to the NOTREDAME4, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN PSU.Similar
Q1 0:32
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
62.0%
Kaytron Allen run for 3 yds to the ND 1Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
-2
62.1%
Kaytron Allen run for a loss of 2 yards to the ND 3Similar
Q2 14:57
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
0
61.5%
Drew Allar pass incomplete to Nicholas SingletonSimilar
Q2 14:52
4TH & GOAL
OPP 3
+20
61.5%
Ryan Barker 20 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 6PUNT
9 plays · 24 yds · 5:1339% → 38%
Q2 14:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-4
61.5%
Jadarian Price run for a loss of 4 yards to the ND 21Similar
Q2 14:06
2ND & 14
OWN 21
+12
61.8%
Jadarian Price run for 12 yds to the ND 33Similar
Q2 13:31
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+3
61.3%
Riley Leonard run for 3 yds to the ND 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:54
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+7
61.1%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Kris Mitchell for 7 yds to the ND 43Similar
Q2 12:20
2ND & 3
OWN 43
+3
60.2%
Riley Leonard run for 3 yds to the ND 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:40
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+4
60.2%
Jeremiyah Love run for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 11:03
2ND & 6
50
-4
59.9%
Riley Leonard run for a loss of 4 yards to the ND 46Similar
Q2 10:16
3RD & 10
OWN 46
+3
61.2%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Jaden Greathouse for 3 yds to the ND 49Similar
Q2 9:35
4TH & 7
OWN 49
0
61.7%
James Rendell punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Zion Tracy at the PSU 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 7TD
15 plays · 90 yds · 7:1262% → 74%
Q2 9:30
1ST & 10
OWN 10
0
61.5%
Drew Allar pass incomplete to Nicholas SingletonSimilar
Q2 9:23
2ND & 10
OWN 10
+20
61.4%
Kaytron Allen run for 20 yds to the PSU 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:05
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+2
61.8%
Kaytron Allen run for 2 yds to the PSU 32Similar
Q2 8:25
2ND & 8
OWN 32
+12
61.9%
Tyler Warren run for 12 yds to the PSU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:43
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+9
64.2%
Tyler Warren run for 9 yds to the ND 47Similar
Q2 7:05
2ND & 1
OPP 47
+10
64.9%
Nicholas Singleton run for 10 yds to the ND 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:44
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+5
65.0%
Drew Allar run for 5 yds to the ND 32Similar
Q2 6:07
2ND & 5
OPP 32
+8
65.6%
Kaytron Allen run for 8 yds to the ND 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:50
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+5
65.6%
Kaytron Allen run for 5 yds to the ND 19Similar
Q2 5:28
2ND & 5
OPP 19
0
65.7%
Kaytron Allen run for no gain to the ND 19Similar
Q2 4:45
3RD & 5
OPP 19
+3
65.0%
Nicholas Singleton run for 3 yds to the ND 16Similar
Q2 4:05
4TH & 2
OPP 16
+4
63.7%
Drew Allar pass complete to Tyler Warren for 4 yds to the ND 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:24
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+5
66.1%
Nicholas Singleton run for 5 yds to the ND 7Similar
Q2 2:57
2ND & 5
OPP 7
+2
66.2%
Kaytron Allen run for 2 yds to the ND 5Similar
Q2 2:18
3RD & 3
OPP 5
+5
74.4%
Nicholas Singleton run for 5 yds for a TD (Ryan Barker KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 8FG
17 plays · 52 yds · 2:1027% → 31%
Q2 2:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
73.0%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Aneyas Williams for 9 yds to the ND 34Similar
Q2 1:54
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+6
71.7%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Mitchell Evans for 6 yds to the ND 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:39
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
71.9%
Riley Leonard pass incomplete to Jordan FaisonSimilar
Q2 1:34
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+5
72.2%
Steve Angeli pass complete to Aneyas Williams for 5 yds to the ND 45Similar
Q2 1:26
3RD & 5
OWN 45
+14
71.8%
Steve Angeli pass complete to Jordan Faison for 14 yds to the PSU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:11
1ST & 10
OPP 41
-4
70.8%
Steve Angeli sacked by Dani Dennis-Sutton for a loss of 4 yards to the PSU 45 Steve Angeli fumbled, forced by Dani Dennis-Sutton, recovered by ND Aamil Wagner , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q2 1:05
2ND & 14
OPP 45
+12
73.7%
Steve Angeli pass complete to Aneyas Williams for 12 yds to the PSU 33Similar
Q2 0:44
3RD & 2
OPP 33
+5
72.1%
Steve Angeli pass complete to Mitchell Evans for 5 yds to the PSU 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:39
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
71.2%
Steve Angeli pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:33
2ND & 10
OPP 28
+4
71.2%
Steve Angeli pass complete to Jaden Greathouse for 4 yds to the PSU 24Similar
Q2 0:16
3RD & 1
OPP 19
+4
70.9%
Steve Angeli pass complete to Aneyas Williams for 4 yds to the PSU 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:11
1ST & 10
OPP 15
-8
70.0%
Steve Angeli sacked by Abdul Carter for a loss of 8 yards to the PSU 23Similar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 18
OPP 23
+41
68.9%
Mitch Jeter 41 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 9TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 4:0930% → 49%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+6
70.4%
Jeremiyah Love run for 6 yds to the ND 26Similar
Q3 14:27
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+9
70.4%
Jeremiyah Love run for 9 yds to the ND 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:56
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+9
69.9%
Jeremiyah Love run for 9 yds to the ND 44Similar
Q3 13:20
2ND & 1
OWN 44
+1
67.7%
Jadarian Price run for 1 yd to the ND 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:39
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+36
69.0%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Aneyas Williams for 36 yds to the PSU 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:08
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+15
66.2%
Aneyas Williams run for 15 yds to the PSU 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:35
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+1
66.3%
Riley Leonard run for 1 yd to the PSU 3Similar
Q3 10:46
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
51.0%
Riley Leonard run for 3 yds for a TD (Mitch Jeter KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 10PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:5259% → 58%
Q3 10:33
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+2
59.0%
Kaytron Allen run for 2 yds to the PSU 24Similar
Q3 9:53
2ND & 8
OWN 24
+6
59.0%
Drew Allar pass complete to Tyler Warren for 6 yds to the PSU 30Similar
Q3 9:21
3RD & 2
OWN 30
0
58.7%
Kaytron Allen run for no gain to the PSU 30Similar
Q3 8:41
4TH & 2
OWN 30
0
57.5%
Riley Thompson punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Max Hurleman at the ND 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 11PUNT
5 plays · 11 yds · 2:0345% → 43%
Q3 8:35
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+11
55.5%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Jordan Faison for 11 yds to the ND 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:00
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+2
53.3%
Jadarian Price run for 2 yds to the ND 43Similar
Q3 7:18
2ND & 8
OWN 43
-2
52.9%
Jadarian Price run for a loss of 2 yards to the ND 41Similar
Q3 6:40
3RD & 10
OWN 41
0
55.2%
Riley Leonard pass incomplete to Mitchell Evans, broken up by Cam MillerSimilar
Q3 6:32
4TH & 10
OWN 41
0
57.3%
James Rendell punt for 44 yds , Zion Tracy returns for no gain to the PSU 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 12PUNT
5 plays · 17 yds · 1:5859% → 56%
Q3 6:24
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+22
58.7%
Drew Allar pass complete to Tyler Warren for 22 yds to the PSU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:07
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+3
60.3%
Nicholas Singleton run for 3 yds to the PSU 40Similar
Q3 5:48
2ND & 7
OWN 40
0
61.9%
Drew Allar run for no gain to the PSU 40Similar
Q3 5:07
3RD & 7
OWN 40
-8
59.6%
Drew Allar sacked by Rod Heard II for a loss of 8 yards to the PSU 32Similar
Q3 4:26
4TH & 15
OWN 32
+8
55.7%
Riley Thompson punt for 48 yds , Max Hurleman returns for 8 yds to the ND 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 13TD
11 plays · 71 yds · 5:1245% → 76%
Q3 4:19
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+9
54.6%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Mitchell Evans for 9 yds to the ND 37Similar
Q3 3:36
2ND & 1
OWN 37
0
52.3%
Riley Leonard run for no gain to the ND 37Similar
Q3 2:50
3RD & 1
OWN 37
+2
52.6%
Riley Leonard run for 2 yds to the ND 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:07
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-2
52.3%
Riley Leonard sacked by Dani Dennis-Sutton for a loss of 2 yards to the ND 37Similar
Q3 1:29
2ND & 12
OWN 37
+3
54.5%
Jeremiyah Love run for 3 yds to the ND 40Similar
Q3 0:53
3RD & 9
OWN 40
+17
54.0%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Jaden Greathouse for 17 yds to the PSU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:25
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+5
49.8%
Riley Leonard run for 5 yds to the PSU 38Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 5
OPP 38
+3
49.2%
Jeremiyah Love run for 3 yds to the PSU 35Similar
Q4 14:52
3RD & 1
OPP 34
+18
49.7%
Jayden Thomas run for 18 yds to the PSU 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:15
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+14
47.7%
Leonard, Riley pass incomplete to Raridon, Eli, PENALTY PSU pass interference (King, Kobe) 14 yards to the PSU2, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN NOTREDAME.Similar
Q4 14:07
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
23.9%
Jeremiyah Love run for 2 yds for a TD (Mitch Jeter KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 14TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 3:3933% → 65%
Q4 13:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+27
32.6%
Drew Allar pass complete to Tyler Warren for 27 yds to the ND 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:37
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+1
37.4%
Drew Allar pass complete to Khalil Dinkins for 1 yd to the ND 47Similar
Q4 12:58
2ND & 9
OPP 47
+9
36.7%
Drew Allar run for 9 yds to the ND 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:16
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+20
36.9%
Drew Allar pass complete to Khalil Dinkins for 20 yds to the ND 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:44
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+10
38.7%
Kaytron Allen run for 10 yds to the ND 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+1
38.4%
Kaytron Allen run for 1 yd to the ND 7Similar
Q4 10:20
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
65.2%
Nicholas Singleton run for 7 yds for a TD (Ryan Barker KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 15INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0046% → 46%
Q4 10:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
53.7%
Riley Leonard pass intercepted Dani Dennis-Sutton return for no gain to the ND 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 16TD
6 plays · 39 yds · 2:1364% → 89%
Q4 10:08
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+4
63.9%
Kaytron Allen run for 4 yds to the ND 35Similar
Q4 9:33
2ND & 6
OPP 35
0
65.4%
Drew Allar pass incomplete to Harrison Wallace IIISimilar
Q4 9:25
3RD & 6
OPP 35
+11
63.3%
Drew Allar run for 11 yds to the ND 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:42
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+15
65.5%
Allar, Drew pass pass intended for Warren, Tyler intercepted by Kiser, Jack at the NOTREDAME0, Kiser, Jack return 0 yards to the NOTREDAME0, PENALTY NOTREDAME pass interference (Shuler, Adon) 15 yards to the NOTREDAME9, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN PSU.Similar
Q4 8:37
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+2
65.4%
Kaytron Allen run for 2 yds to the ND 7Similar
Q4 7:55
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
89.1%
Nicholas Singleton run for 7 yds for a TD (Ryan Barker KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 17TD
7 plays · 81 yds · 3:0818% → 53%
Q4 7:46
1ST & 10
OWN 19
-4
82.3%
Jadarian Price run for a loss of 4 yards to the ND 15Similar
Q4 7:12
2ND & 14
OWN 15
+11
85.1%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Jaden Greathouse for 11 yds to the ND 26Similar
Q4 6:40
3RD & 3
OWN 26
+6
84.7%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Jaden Greathouse for 6 yds to the ND 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:55
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+6
84.1%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Jeremiyah Love for 6 yds to the ND 38Similar
Q4 5:43
2ND & 4
OWN 38
+6
82.2%
Riley Leonard run for 6 yds to the ND 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:07
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+2
82.9%
Jeremiyah Love run for 2 yds to the ND 46Similar
Q4 4:38
2ND & 8
OWN 46
+54
46.6%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Jaden Greathouse for 54 yds for a TD (Mitch Jeter KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 18PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:5658% → 56%
Q4 4:30
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+10
57.5%
Drew Allar pass complete to Nicholas Singleton for 10 yds to the PSU 30Similar
Q4 3:57
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+2
59.3%
Nicholas Singleton run for 2 yds to the PSU 32Similar
Q4 3:13
3RD & 3
OWN 32
0
57.4%
Drew Allar run for no gain to the PSU 32Similar
Q4 2:34
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
55.6%
Riley Thompson punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Max Hurleman at the ND 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 19PUNT
9 plays · 28 yds · 1:4049% → 52%
Q4 2:27
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+8
50.9%
Jadarian Price run for 8 yds to the ND 32Similar
Q4 1:55
2ND & 2
OWN 32
+1
47.6%
Jeremiyah Love run for 1 yd to the ND 33Similar
Q4 1:27
3RD & 1
OWN 33
+3
48.6%
Riley Leonard run for 3 yds to the ND 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:14
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+15
49.0%
Leonard, Riley pass sacked for loss of 3 yards to the NOTREDAME33 (Carter, Abdul), PENALTY PSU personal foul (Durant, Zane) 15 yards to the PSU49, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN NOTREDAME.Similar
Q4 1:07
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+5
44.2%
Riley Leonard run for 5 yds to the PSU 44Similar
Q4 0:59
2ND & 5
OPP 44
0
42.8%
Riley Leonard pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:47
4TH & 9
OPP 48
0
48.5%
James Rendell punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Zion Tracy at the PSU 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 20INT
2 plays · 13 yds · 0:0556% → 58%
Q4 0:38
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+13
56.4%
Nicholas Singleton run for 13 yds to the PSU 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:33
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
57.5%
Drew Allar pass intercepted Christian Gray return for no gain to the PSU 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 21FG
11 plays · 19 yds · 0:2359% → 94%
Q4 0:30
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+5
41.3%
Riley Leonard run for 5 yds to the PSU 37Similar
Q4 0:24
2ND & 5
OPP 37
+2
40.8%
Riley Leonard run for 2 yds to the PSU 35Similar
Q4 0:17
3RD & 3
OPP 35
+10
41.6%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Jaden Greathouse for 10 yds to the PSU 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:16
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
39.1%
TEAM pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:15
2ND & 10
OPP 25
0
39.8%
TEAM run for no gain to the PSU 25Similar
Q4 0:13
3RD & 10
OPP 25
+2
42.1%
Riley Leonard run for 2 yds to the PSU 23Similar
Q4 0:07
4TH & 8
OPP 23
+41
5.9%
Mitch Jeter 41 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 22END OF GAME
2 plays · -4 yds · 0:0414% → 13%
Q4 0:04
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
13.5%
Drew Allar pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+3
13.1%
Drew Allar pass complete to Tyler Warren for 3 yds to the PSU 21 lat. to Harrison Wallace III for a loss of 3 yards to the PSU 21 lat. to Drew Allar for a loss of 4 yards Drew Allar fumbled, recovered by PSUSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
FG · Q4 0:07
Mitch Jeter 41 yd FG GOOD
-39.7
TD · Q4 4:38
Riley Leonard pass complete to Jaden Greathouse for 54 yds for a TD (Mitch Jeter KICK)
-36.3
TD · Q4 10:20
Nicholas Singleton run for 7 yds for a TD (Ryan Barker KICK)
+26.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com