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Notre Dame 23 at Texas A&M 13

TA&M
2024 · Week 1 · Aug 31, 2024 · Kyle Field
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Win probability · TA&M
modelTA&M aheadND aheadconfidence bandkey playTA&M scoreND score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGFGFGFGTDTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:00 · Le'Veon Moss run for 3 yds to the TA&M 32
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+39.0+19.50−19.5−39.0Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. FG · Q2 8:32: Mitch Jeter 26 yd FG GOOD — ND win probability +2.2 pts (now 42%) (top driver: ND has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 6:50: Jadarian Price run for 47 yds for a TD (Mitch Jeter KICK) — ND win probability +19.5 pts (now 64%) (top driver: ND has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 11:49: Le'Veon Moss run for 1 yd for a TD (Randy Bond KICK) — TA&M win probability +23.9 pts (now 65%) (top driver: TA&M has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 1:54: Jeremiyah Love run for 21 yds for a TD (Mitch Jeter KICK) — ND win probability +35.1 pts (now 92%) (top driver: ND has the ball).
  5. FG · Q4 0:30: Mitch Jeter 46 yd FG GOOD — ND win probability +1.8 pts (now 97%) (top driver: ND has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TA&M made the numbers' call on 5 of 8ND made the numbers' call on 7 of 10
  1. Q1 11:07TA&M 4th & 3 at ND 17, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 59.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.0%
    51% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    59.0%−<0.1
    80% to make
    Punt
    58.4%−0.6
    average punt
  2. Q1 6:39ND 4th & 3 at TA&M 28, down 3
    Close callKicked a field goal · 40.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.4%
    52% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    40.2%−0.2
    60% to make
    Punt
    38.9%−1.5
    average punt
  3. Q1 3:59TA&M 4th & 6 at TA&M 44, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 58.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.5%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    58.7%
    average punt
  4. Q1 2:59ND 4th & 7 at ND 16, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 40.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.3%−0.4
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    40.7%
    average punt
  5. Q2 14:14TA&M 4th & 3 at ND 32, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 59.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.5%
    53% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    59.1%−0.4
    51% to make
    Punt
    58.8%−0.8
    average punt
  6. Q2 11:17ND 4th & 12 at ND 49, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 38.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.3%−0.6
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    38.9%
    average punt
  7. Q2 8:32ND 4th & 8 at TA&M 8, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 40.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.5%−0.4
    26% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    39.9%
    90% to make
    Punt
    35.1%−4.8
    average punt
  8. Q2 6:12TA&M 4th & 23 at TA&M 24, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 57.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.6%−3.1
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    57.7%
    average punt
  9. Q2 1:49ND 4th & 9 at TA&M 40, tied
    Close callPunted · 45.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.5%
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    44.1%−0.4
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    44.0%−0.5
    average punt
  10. Q3 13:06ND 4th & 1 at ND 33, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 44.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    45.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    43.6%−1.9
    average punt
  11. Q3 11:15ND 4th & 2 at ND 49, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 45.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    46.6%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    45.0%−1.6
    average punt
  12. Q3 8:55TA&M 4th & 8 at ND 37, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 59.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    59.6%
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    59.2%−0.5
    40% to make
    Punt
    58.9%−0.7
    average punt
  13. Q3 1:22TA&M 4th & 10 at midfield, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 35.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.0%−1.0
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    36.0%
    average punt
  14. Q3 0:32ND 4th & 3 at ND 27, up 7
    Close callPunted · 66.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.2%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    67.6%−0.6
    average punt
  15. Q4 8:36ND 4th & 9 at ND 36, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 43.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.8%−4.4
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    45.3%
    average punt
  16. Q4 6:23TA&M 4th & 1 at TA&M 24, tied
    Numbers favored go for it by 4.7 ptsPunted · 54.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    50.3%−4.7
    average punt
  17. Q4 1:34TA&M 4th & 2 at TA&M 33, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 16.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    13.8%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    10.4%−3.4
    average punt
  18. Q4 0:30ND 4th & 5 at TA&M 28, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 89.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.3%−0.6
    41% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    89.9%
    60% to make
    Punt
    87.0%−2.9
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TA&M made the numbers' call on 1 of 1ND made the numbers' call on 1 of 2
  1. Q3 6:50ND Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    59.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    59.6%−0.2
    45% to convert
  2. Q4 11:49TA&M Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    52.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    52.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q4 1:54ND Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    83.2%−0.5
    97% to make
    Go for two
    83.7%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
TA&MDrive 1FG
13 plays · 58 yds · 3:4860% → 61%
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
60.1%
Conner Weigman pass complete to Cyrus Allen for 15 yds to the TA&M 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:34
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
60.2%
Conner Weigman pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:20
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+3
60.2%
Le'Veon Moss run for 3 yds to the TA&M 43Similar
Q1 13:55
3RD & 7
OWN 43
+5
60.2%
Notre Dame Penalty, Defensive Offside (Boubacar Traore) to the TA&M 48Similar
Q1 13:40
3RD & 2
OWN 48
+4
60.2%
Le'Veon Moss run for 4 yds to the ND 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:23
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+2
60.4%
Le'Veon Moss run for 2 yds to the ND 46Similar
Q1 12:54
2ND & 8
OPP 46
+4
60.4%
Notre Dame Penalty, Defensive Offside (Rylie Mills) to the ND 42Similar
Q1 12:11
2ND & 4
OPP 42
+18
60.5%
Conner Weigman pass complete to Tre Watson for 18 yds to the ND 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:40
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+7
60.7%
Conner Weigman run for 7 yds to the ND 17Similar
Q1 11:16
2ND & 3
OPP 17
0
60.7%
Conner Weigman pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:12
3RD & 3
OPP 17
0
60.6%
Conner Weigman pass incomplete to EJ SmithSimilar
Q1 11:07
4TH & 3
OPP 17
+34
60.7%
Randy Bond 34 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 2FG
10 plays · 47 yds · 4:2139% → 40%
Q1 11:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
60.6%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Jeremiyah Love for 3 yds to the ND 28Similar
Q1 10:30
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+8
60.6%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Jaden Greathouse for 8 yds to the ND 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:57
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+1
60.5%
Jeremiyah Love run for 1 yd to the ND 37Similar
Q1 8:55
2ND & 9
OWN 37
+4
60.7%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Jordan Faison for 4 yds to the ND 41Similar
Q1 8:26
3RD & 5
OWN 41
+24
60.6%
Riley Leonard run for 9 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down Texas A&M Penalty, Personal Foul (Dalton Brooks) to the TA&M 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:57
1ST & 10
OPP 35
-3
60.1%
Jadarian Price run for a loss of 3 yards to the TA&M 38Similar
Q1 7:28
2ND & 13
OPP 38
0
60.6%
Riley Leonard pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:01
3RD & 13
OPP 38
+10
60.9%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Beaux Collins for 10 yds to the TA&M 28Similar
Q1 6:39
4TH & 3
OPP 28
+46
59.6%
Mitch Jeter 46 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 3PUNT
9 plays · 19 yds · 2:3660% → 60%
Q1 6:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
60.0%
Conner Weigman pass incomplete to Le'Veon MossSimilar
Q1 6:26
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
59.9%
Terry Bussey run for no gain to the TA&M 25Similar
Q1 5:48
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+15
59.5%
Notre Dame Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Christian Gray) to the TA&M 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:30
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+5
60.6%
Le'Veon Moss run for 5 yds to the TA&M 45Similar
Q1 4:58
2ND & 5
OWN 45
+4
60.9%
Conner Weigman pass complete to Jahdae Walker for 4 yds to the TA&M 49Similar
Q1 4:36
3RD & 1
OWN 49
-5
60.6%
Texas A&M Penalty, False Start (Jahdae Walker) to the TA&M 44Similar
Q1 4:06
3RD & 6
OWN 44
0
60.4%
Conner Weigman pass incomplete to Cyrus AllenSimilar
Q1 3:59
4TH & 6
OWN 44
0
59.7%
Tyler White punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Jordan Faison at the ND 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:4240% → 39%
Q1 3:41
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+3
59.8%
Riley Leonard run for 3 yds to the ND 16Similar
Q1 3:18
2ND & 7
OWN 16
0
59.8%
Riley Leonard pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:13
3RD & 7
OWN 16
0
60.3%
Riley Leonard pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:59
4TH & 7
OWN 16
0
60.7%
James Rendell punt for 47 yds, downed at the TA&M 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 5FG
9 plays · 31 yds · 3:3460% → 62%
Q1 2:48
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+4
60.4%
Le'Veon Moss run for 4 yds to the TA&M 41Similar
Q1 2:16
2ND & 6
OWN 41
+8
61.1%
Conner Weigman run for 8 yds to the TA&M 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:38
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+6
61.3%
Jahdae Walker run for 6 yds to the ND 45Similar
Q1 0:30
3RD & 4
OPP 45
+6
61.4%
Le'Veon Moss run for 6 yds to the ND 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:25
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
61.7%
Conner Weigman pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+7
61.7%
Amari Daniels run for 7 yds to the ND 32Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 3
OPP 32
-5
61.5%
Texas A&M Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the ND 37Similar
Q2 14:41
3RD & 8
OPP 37
+5
61.3%
Conner Weigman pass complete to Jahdae Walker for 5 yds to the ND 32Similar
Q2 14:14
4TH & 3
OPP 32
+49
61.5%
Randy Bond 49 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 6PUNT
9 plays · 24 yds · 2:5439% → 37%
Q2 14:11
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
61.5%
Riley Leonard pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:55
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+12
61.6%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Kris Mitchell for 12 yds to the ND 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:24
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+14
61.1%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Jayden Thomas for 14 yds to the TA&M 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:11
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-1
59.9%
Riley Leonard run for a loss of 1 yard to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 12:55
2ND & 11
50
-2
60.4%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Jayden Harrison for a loss of 2 yards to the ND 48Similar
Q2 12:01
3RD & 13
OWN 48
+1
61.6%
Riley Leonard run for 1 yd to the ND 49Similar
Q2 11:17
4TH & 12
OWN 49
+10
62.7%
James Rendell punt for 43 yds , Terry Bussey returns for 10 yds to the TA&M 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 7INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0062% → 62%
Q2 11:07
1ST & 10
OWN 18
-12
62.1%
Conner Weigman pass intercepted Adon Shuler return for 12 yds to the TA&M 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 8FG
8 plays · 21 yds · 2:2540% → 42%
Q2 10:57
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+2
59.7%
Jeremiyah Love run for 2 yds to the TA&M 27Similar
Q2 10:34
2ND & 8
OPP 27
-8
59.7%
Riley Leonard run for 2 yds to the TA&M 25 Notre Dame Penalty, Offensive Holding (Cooper Flanagan) to the TA&M 35Similar
Q2 10:00
2ND & 16
OPP 35
+11
60.6%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Beaux Collins for 11 yds to the TA&M 24Similar
Q2 9:27
3RD & 5
OPP 24
+15
60.2%
Texas A&M Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Tyreek Chappell) to the TA&M 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:21
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+1
59.3%
Jeremiyah Love run for 1 yd to the TA&M 8Similar
Q2 8:42
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
0
59.3%
Riley Leonard pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:35
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
0
60.2%
Riley Leonard pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:32
4TH & GOAL
OPP 8
+26
57.9%
Mitch Jeter 26 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 9PUNT
7 plays · 5 yds · 1:5961% → 59%
Q2 8:11
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+5
61.0%
Le'Veon Moss run for 5 yds to the TA&M 24Similar
Q2 7:55
2ND & 5
OWN 24
+13
61.2%
Conner Weigman pass complete to Cyrus Allen for 13 yds to the TA&M 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:40
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-2
61.7%
Le'Veon Moss run for a loss of 2 yards to the TA&M 35Similar
Q2 7:11
2ND & 12
OWN 35
0
60.9%
Conner Weigman pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:58
3RD & 12
OWN 35
-11
60.0%
Conner Weigman sacked by Howard Cross III for a loss of 11 yards to the TA&M 24Similar
Q2 6:12
4TH & 23
OWN 24
0
59.2%
Tyler White punt for 62 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the ND 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 10PUNT
11 plays · 46 yds · 4:1142% → 44%
Q2 6:00
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+2
57.8%
Jadarian Price run for 2 yds to the ND 16Similar
Q2 5:31
2ND & 8
OWN 16
+8
57.8%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Jordan Faison for 8 yds to the ND 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:00
1ST & 10
OWN 24
-4
57.5%
Jadarian Price run for 6 yds to the ND 30 Notre Dame Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the ND 20Similar
Q2 4:30
1ST & 14
OWN 20
+29
57.7%
Jeremiyah Love run for 29 yds to the ND 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:05
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
54.8%
Riley Leonard pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:55
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+10
55.3%
Jeremiyah Love run for 10 yds to the TA&M 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:19
1ST & 10
OPP 41
-5
54.4%
Notre Dame Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the TA&M 46Similar
Q2 2:55
1ST & 15
OPP 46
+6
55.3%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Jayden Harrison for 6 yds to the TA&M 40Similar
Q2 2:40
2ND & 9
OPP 40
0
54.1%
Riley Leonard pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:11
3RD & 9
OPP 40
0
54.4%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Devyn Ford for no gain to the TA&M 40Similar
Q2 1:49
4TH & 9
OPP 40
0
56.3%
James Rendell punt for 29 yds, downed at the TA&M 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 11INT
9 plays · 28 yds · 0:3460% → 62%
Q2 1:20
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+3
60.4%
Conner Weigman pass complete to Jahdae Walker for 3 yds to the TA&M 14Similar
Q2 1:17
2ND & 7
OWN 14
+2
60.4%
Le'Veon Moss run for 2 yds to the TA&M 16Similar
Q2 1:12
3RD & 5
OWN 16
+10
59.5%
Conner Weigman pass complete to Noah Thomas for 10 yds to the TA&M 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:05
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+9
61.0%
Conner Weigman run for 9 yds to the TA&M 35Similar
Q2 0:58
2ND & 1
OWN 35
+4
62.4%
Le'Veon Moss run for 4 yds to the TA&M 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:53
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
61.9%
Conner Weigman pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:46
2ND & 10
OWN 39
0
61.6%
Conner Weigman pass intercepted Xavier Watts return for no gain to the ND 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 12END OF HALF
2 plays · -7 yds · 0:4146% → 44%
Q2 0:41
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-10
54.0%
Notre Dame Penalty, Offensive Holding (Anthonie Knapp) to the ND 39Similar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 20
OWN 39
+3
56.4%
Jeremiyah Love run for 3 yds to the ND 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 13DOWNS
10 plays · 26 yds · 3:3144% → 45%
Q3 14:46
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+9
56.1%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Cooper Flanagan for 9 yds to the ND 33Similar
Q3 14:21
2ND & 1
OWN 33
0
54.3%
Jeremiyah Love run for no gain to the ND 33Similar
Q3 13:51
3RD & 1
OWN 33
0
55.1%
Jeremiyah Love run for no gain to the ND 33Similar
Q3 13:06
4TH & 1
OWN 33
+8
57.4%
Riley Leonard run for 8 yds to the ND 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:44
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
54.3%
Riley Leonard pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:38
2ND & 10
OWN 41
-1
54.9%
Jadarian Price run for a loss of 1 yard to the ND 40Similar
Q3 11:52
3RD & 11
OWN 40
+9
56.7%
Riley Leonard run for 9 yds to the ND 49Similar
Q3 11:15
4TH & 2
OWN 49
+1
55.2%
Riley Leonard run for 1 yd to the 50 yard line, turnover on downsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 14DOWNS
6 plays · 13 yds · 2:1464% → 61%
Q3 11:09
1ST & 10
50
0
63.5%
Le'Veon Moss run for no gain to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 10:28
2ND & 10
50
+11
63.1%
Conner Weigman pass complete to Jahdae Walker for 11 yds to the ND 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:55
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+1
64.0%
Le'Veon Moss run for 1 yd to the ND 38Similar
Q3 9:34
2ND & 9
OPP 38
0
64.1%
Conner Weigman pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:26
3RD & 9
OPP 38
+1
63.2%
Le'Veon Moss run for 1 yd to the ND 37Similar
Q3 8:55
4TH & 8
OPP 37
0
61.4%
Conner Weigman pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 15TD
5 plays · 63 yds · 1:5045% → 64%
Q3 8:40
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+4
55.4%
Riley Leonard run for no gain to the ND 41 TEAM fumbled, recovered by ND Riley Leonard Riley Leonard run for 4 yds to the ND 41Similar
Q3 8:23
2ND & 6
OWN 41
+16
53.2%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Cooper Flanagan for 16 yds to the TA&M 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:48
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-15
52.4%
Notre Dame Penalty, Offensive Pass Interference (-15 Yards) to the ND 42Similar
Q3 7:29
1ST & 25
OWN 42
+11
55.1%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Beaux Collins for 11 yds to the TA&M 47Similar
Q3 6:50
2ND & 14
OPP 47
+47
35.6%
Jadarian Price run for 47 yds for a TD (Mitch Jeter KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 16PUNT
11 plays · 25 yds · 5:1841% → 38%
Q3 6:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
40.9%
Le'Veon Moss run for 4 yds to the TA&M 29Similar
Q3 6:05
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+5
41.3%
Conner Weigman pass complete to Le'Veon Moss for 5 yds to the TA&M 34Similar
Q3 5:26
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+2
41.6%
Amari Daniels run for 2 yds to the TA&M 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:51
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+7
40.9%
Conner Weigman pass complete to Jahdae Walker for 7 yds to the TA&M 43Similar
Q3 4:24
2ND & 3
OWN 43
+7
43.3%
Amari Daniels run for 7 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:43
1ST & 10
50
0
43.6%
Amari Daniels run for no gain to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 2:42
2ND & 10
50
0
42.4%
EJ Smith run for no gain to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 2:08
3RD & 10
50
+5
39.9%
Conner Weigman run for 5 yds to the ND 45Similar
Q3 1:41
4TH & 5
OPP 45
-5
40.0%
Texas A&M Penalty, False Start (Dametrious Crownover) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 1:22
4TH & 10
50
0
38.1%
Tyler White punt for 50 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 17PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:4467% → 66%
Q3 1:16
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+7
33.5%
Riley Leonard run for 7 yds to the ND 27Similar
Q3 0:46
2ND & 3
OWN 27
0
31.5%
Riley Leonard pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 0:43
3RD & 3
OWN 27
0
32.3%
Riley Leonard pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 0:32
4TH & 3
OWN 27
+8
34.4%
James Rendell punt for 46 yds , Terry Bussey returns for 8 yds to the TA&M 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 18TD
11 plays · 65 yds · 3:3536% → 65%
Q3 0:24
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+12
36.0%
Le'Veon Moss run for 12 yds to the TA&M 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+6
38.9%
Conner Weigman run for 6 yds to the ND 47Similar
Q4 14:55
2ND & 4
OPP 47
+7
40.2%
Le'Veon Moss run for 7 yds to the ND 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:19
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
39.9%
Conner Weigman pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:00
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+19
38.9%
Amari Daniels run for 4 yds to the ND 36 for a 1ST down Notre Dame Penalty, Illegal Contact (Howard Cross III) to the ND 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:51
1ST & 10
OPP 21
0
41.6%
Conner Weigman pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:31
2ND & 10
OPP 21
+14
41.4%
EJ Smith run for 14 yds to the ND 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:15
1ST & 0
OPP 7
+5
43.6%
Notre Dame Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Jaden Mickey) to the ND 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:07
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
-1
41.3%
EJ Smith run for a loss of 1 yard to the ND 3Similar
Q4 12:28
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
41.0%
Conner Weigman run for 2 yds to the ND 1Similar
Q4 11:49
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
64.9%
Le'Veon Moss run for 1 yd for a TD (Randy Bond KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 19PUNT
8 plays · 11 yds · 3:0446% → 43%
Q4 11:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
54.4%
Jadarian Price run for no gain to the ND 25Similar
Q4 11:03
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+10
54.6%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Beaux Collins for 10 yds to the ND 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:30
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
53.2%
Riley Leonard pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:11
2ND & 10
OWN 35
-3
54.1%
Jadarian Price run for a loss of 3 yards to the ND 32Similar
Q4 9:56
3RD & 13
OWN 32
-5
56.2%
Notre Dame Penalty, False Start (Sam Pendleton) to the ND 27Similar
Q4 9:33
3RD & 18
OWN 27
+9
56.6%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Jaden Greathouse for 9 yds to the ND 36Similar
Q4 8:36
4TH & 9
OWN 36
0
56.9%
James Rendell punt for 49 yds, downed at the TA&M 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 20PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 2:0160% → 57%
Q4 8:24
1ST & 10
OWN 15
0
59.6%
Le'Veon Moss run for no gain to the TA&M 15Similar
Q4 7:47
2ND & 10
OWN 15
+1
59.3%
Conner Weigman pass complete to Jahdae Walker for 1 yd to the TA&M 16Similar
Q4 7:07
3RD & 9
OWN 16
+8
56.8%
Conner Weigman pass complete to Le'Veon Moss for 8 yds to the TA&M 24Similar
Q4 6:23
4TH & 1
OWN 24
0
56.6%
Tyler White punt for 61 yds, downed at the ND 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 21TD
8 plays · 85 yds · 4:1847% → 92%
Q4 6:12
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+9
53.0%
Riley Leonard run for 9 yds to the ND 24Similar
Q4 5:21
2ND & 1
OWN 24
-4
50.6%
Jeremiyah Love run for a loss of 4 yards to the ND 20Similar
Q4 4:51
3RD & 5
OWN 20
+9
54.1%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Jaden Greathouse for 9 yds to the ND 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:15
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+20
51.8%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Beaux Collins for 20 yds to the ND 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:51
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+11
46.5%
Riley Leonard run for 11 yds to the TA&M 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:13
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+18
45.8%
Jeremiyah Love run for 18 yds to the TA&M 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:31
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+1
43.4%
Jeremiyah Love run for 1 yd to the TA&M 21Similar
Q4 1:54
2ND & 9
OPP 21
+21
8.3%
Jeremiyah Love run for 21 yds for a TD (Mitch Jeter KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 22DOWNS
6 plays · 8 yds · 0:1515% → 15%
Q4 1:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
15.3%
Conner Weigman pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:45
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
15.0%
Conner Weigman pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:37
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+8
14.1%
Le'Veon Moss run for 8 yds to the TA&M 33Similar
Q4 1:34
4TH & 2
OWN 33
0
14.6%
Conner Weigman pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 23FG
7 plays · 5 yds · 1:0095% → 97%
Q4 1:30
1ST & 10
OPP 33
-4
4.9%
Jadarian Price run for a loss of 4 yards to the TA&M 37Similar
Q4 1:21
2ND & 14
OPP 37
+4
5.0%
Jeremiyah Love run for 4 yds to the TA&M 33Similar
Q4 1:11
3RD & 10
OPP 33
+5
4.9%
Jeremiyah Love run for 5 yds to the TA&M 28Similar
Q4 0:30
4TH & 5
OPP 28
+46
3.3%
Mitch Jeter 46 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 24END OF GAME
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:243% → 3%
Q4 0:24
1ST & 10
OWN 28
-10
3.2%
Texas A&M Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the TA&M 18Similar
Q4 0:11
1ST & 20
OWN 18
+11
2.9%
EJ Smith run for 11 yds to the TA&M 29Similar
Q4 0:06
2ND & 9
OWN 29
0
3.0%
Conner Weigman pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 9
OWN 29
+3
2.8%
Le'Veon Moss run for 3 yds to the TA&M 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 1:54
Jeremiyah Love run for 21 yds for a TD (Mitch Jeter KICK)
-35.1
TD · Q4 11:49
Le'Veon Moss run for 1 yd for a TD (Randy Bond KICK)
+23.9
TD · Q3 6:50
Jadarian Price run for 47 yds for a TD (Mitch Jeter KICK)
-19.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com