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NU

Northwestern 43 at Notre Dame 40

ND
2014 · Week 12 · Nov 15, 2014 · Notre Dame Stadium
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Win probability · ND
modelND aheadNU aheadconfidence bandkey playND scoreNU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4OTTDTDTDTDTDTDTDFGTDFGTDTDFGFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
OT 0:00 · Jack Mitchell 41 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsTime remaining
+37.0+18.50−18.5−37.0Q1Q2Q3Q4OT
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 3:36: Everett Golson pass complete to William Fuller for 23 yds for a TD, (Kyle Brindza KICK) — ND win probability +12.0 pts (now 90%) (top driver: ND has the ball).
  2. FG · Q4 14:18: Jack Mitchell 46 yd FG GOOD — NU win probability +11.4 pts (now 27%) (top driver: NU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 4:10: Trevor Siemian run for 6 yds for a TD, (W. Long Run For Two-point Conversion) — NU win probability +28.1 pts (now 36%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  4. FG · Q4 0:19: Jack Mitchell 45 yd FG GOOD — NU win probability +36.4 pts (now 52%) (top driver: NU has the ball).
  5. FG · OT 0:00: Jack Mitchell 41 yd FG GOOD — NU win probability +17.8 pts (now 72%) (top driver: NU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ND made the numbers' call on 5 of 6NU made the numbers' call on 7 of 8
  1. Q1 9:18ND 4th & 4 at ND 47, tied
    Close callPunted · 84.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.6%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    84.5%−<0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 3:50NU 4th & 7 at ND 36, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 16.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    16.6%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    16.5%−0.1
    42% to make
    Punt
    16.4%−0.2
    average punt
  3. Q2 13:58ND 4th & 5 at ND 27, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 81.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.5%−0.2
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    81.6%
    average punt
  4. Q2 12:25NU 4th & 3 at ND 34, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 18.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    18.8%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    18.4%−0.4
    47% to make
    Punt
    18.1%−0.7
    average punt
  5. Q2 0:33ND 4th & 2 at NU 21, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 79.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.3%−0.2
    57% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    79.5%
    74% to make
    Punt
    76.8%−2.7
    average punt
  6. Q3 11:11NU 4th & 14 at ND 14, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 22.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.3%−1.6
    16% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    21.9%
    84% to make
    Punt
    16.9%−5.0
    average punt
  7. Q3 10:16ND 4th & 9 at ND 27, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 73.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.5%−1.8
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    75.3%
    average punt
  8. Q3 6:42NU 4th & 9 at NU 8, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 23.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.3%−1.8
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.1%
    average punt
  9. Q3 4:23ND 4th & 7 at NU 36, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 73.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    74.2%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    73.4%−0.8
    42% to make
    Punt
    72.7%−1.5
    average punt
  10. Q3 1:28NU 4th & 2 at ND 35, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 14.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    14.8%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    11.8%−3.1
    45% to make
    Punt
    10.4%−4.4
    average punt
  11. Q4 14:18NU 4th & 6 at ND 29, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 13.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.2%−0.3
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    13.5%
    58% to make
    Punt
    5.4%−8.1
    average punt
  12. Q4 8:43NU 4th & 4 at ND 26, down 11
    Close callKicked a field goal · 8.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.8%
    48% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    8.6%−0.2
    64% to make
    Punt
    5.8%−3.1
    average punt
  13. Q4 6:08ND 4th & 9 at NU 44, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 93.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.6%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    93.2%−0.5
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    93.7%
    average punt
  14. Q4 0:19NU 4th & 10 at ND 28, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 23.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.5%−13.2
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    28.8%
    60% to make
    Punt
    8.4%−20.4
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ND made the numbers' call on 4 of 6NU made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 14:16ND Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    86.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    86.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 11:28NU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    15.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    15.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 7:15ND Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    85.1%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    85.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q1 2:26ND Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    85.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    85.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 14:54NU Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    18.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    18.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 9:12NU Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    23.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    22.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q2 5:27ND Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    80.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    80.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 3:36ND Touchdown, up 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    83.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    83.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 10:34ND Touchdown, up 11 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    92.7%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    92.5%−0.3
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 4:10NU Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · converted
    Kick
    14.6%−1.1
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    15.8%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
NDDrive 1TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 0:4087% → 87%
Q1 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
87.0%
Everett Golson pass incomplete to William FullerSimilar
Q1 14:50
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
87.0%
Everett Golson pass incomplete to C.J. ProsiseSimilar
Q1 14:42
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+14
86.9%
Everett Golson pass complete to Chris Brown for 14 yds to the NDame 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:16
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+61
87.0%
Everett Golson run for 61 yds for a TD, (Kyle Brindza KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 2TD
11 plays · 74 yds · 2:2813% → 14%
Q1 13:56
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+7
86.9%
Trevor Siemian pass complete to Garrett Dickerson for 7 yds to the Nwest 33Similar
Q1 13:43
2ND & 3
OWN 33
0
86.8%
Trevor Siemian pass incomplete to Dan VitaleSimilar
Q1 13:39
3RD & 3
OWN 33
+6
86.8%
Trevor Siemian pass complete to Cameron Dickerson for 6 yds to the Nwest 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:15
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+4
86.8%
Justin Jackson run for 4 yds to the Nwest 43Similar
Q1 12:59
2ND & 6
OWN 43
+5
86.7%
Trevor Siemian pass complete to Cameron Dickerson for 5 yds to the Nwest 48Similar
Q1 12:44
3RD & 1
OWN 48
+2
86.7%
Trevor Siemian run for 2 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:15
1ST & 10
50
+44
86.6%
Justin Jackson run for 44 yds to the NDame 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:03
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+2
86.5%
Justin Jackson run for 2 yds to the NDame 4Similar
Q1 11:43
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+2
86.4%
NOTRE DAME Penalty, Defensive Offside (Jarron Jones) to the NDame 2Similar
Q1 11:28
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
85.7%
Matt Alviti run for 2 yds for a TD, (Jack Mitchell KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 3PUNT
7 plays · 18 yds · 1:5986% → 85%
Q1 11:17
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
86.0%
Everett Golson pass incomplete to William FullerSimilar
Q1 11:12
2ND & 10
OWN 29
+12
85.9%
Everett Golson pass complete to William Fuller for 12 yds to the NDame 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:47
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+3
86.0%
Tarean Folston run for 3 yds to the NDame 44Similar
Q1 10:24
2ND & 7
OWN 44
-4
85.9%
C.J. Prosise run for a loss of 4 yards to the NDame 40Similar
Q1 9:39
3RD & 11
OWN 40
+7
85.4%
Everett Golson run for 7 yds to the NDame 47Similar
Q1 9:18
4TH & 4
OWN 47
0
85.4%
Kyle Brindza punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Tony Jones at the Nwest 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 4FUMBLE RETURN TD
6 plays · 24 yds · 1:5515% → 14%
Q1 9:10
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+3
85.3%
Justin Jackson run for 3 yds to the Nwest 11Similar
Q1 8:43
2ND & 7
OWN 11
+3
85.1%
Trevor Siemian pass complete to Tony Jones for 3 yds to the Nwest 14Similar
Q1 8:22
3RD & 4
OWN 14
+6
85.1%
Trevor Siemian pass complete to Kyle Prater for 6 yds to the Nwest 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:18
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
84.9%
Trevor Siemian pass complete to Kyle Prater for 5 yds to the Nwest 25Similar
Q1 7:54
2ND & 5
OWN 25
0
84.7%
Treyvon Green run for no gain to the Nwest 25Similar
Q1 7:15
3RD & 5
OWN 25
-32
85.8%
Austin Collinsworth 32 Yd Fumble Return (Kyle Brindza PAT blocked, returned by defense for 2 pt conv)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 5DOWNS
9 plays · 35 yds · 3:1215% → 16%
Q1 7:02
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+17
85.2%
Trevor Siemian pass complete to Dan Vitale for 17 yds to the Nwest 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:34
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+2
84.7%
Justin Jackson run for 2 yds to the Nwest 48Similar
Q1 6:09
2ND & 8
OWN 48
+2
84.6%
Justin Jackson run for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 5:25
3RD & 6
50
+11
84.3%
Trevor Siemian pass complete to Tony Jones for 11 yds to the NDame 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:11
1ST & 10
OPP 39
-1
84.2%
Trevor Siemian pass complete to Tony Jones for a loss of 1 yard to the NDame 40Similar
Q1 4:34
2ND & 11
OPP 40
+4
84.0%
Trevor Siemian pass complete to Kyle Prater for 4 yds to the NDame 36Similar
Q1 3:55
3RD & 7
OPP 36
0
83.9%
Trevor Siemian pass incomplete to Kyle PraterSimilar
Q1 3:50
4TH & 7
OPP 36
0
84.2%
Trevor Siemian pass incomplete to Tony JonesSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 6TD
5 plays · 64 yds · 1:0685% → 87%
Q1 3:32
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+11
84.5%
Everett Golson pass complete to William Fuller for 11 yds to the NDame 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:18
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+31
84.8%
Everett Golson pass complete to William Fuller for 31 yds to the Nwest 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:05
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+11
85.0%
Tarean Folston run for 11 yds to the Nwest 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:46
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+5
84.9%
NORTHWESTERN Penalty, Defensive Offside (Max Chapman) to the Nwest 6Similar
Q1 2:26
1ST & 5
OPP 6
+6
86.6%
Tarean Folston 6 Yd Run (Kyle Brindza Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 7TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 2:2114% → 18%
Q1 2:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
86.2%
Justin Jackson run for 1 yd to the Nwest 26Similar
Q1 1:47
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
86.1%
Trevor Siemian pass incomplete to Tony JonesSimilar
Q1 1:21
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+45
86.3%
Treyvon Green run for 45 yds to the NDame 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:09
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+14
85.1%
Tony Jones run for 14 yds to the NDame 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:48
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+5
85.0%
Justin Jackson run for 5 yds to the NDame 10Similar
Q1 0:21
2ND & 5
OPP 10
0
84.9%
Trevor Siemian pass incomplete to Tony JonesSimilar
Q1 0:00
3RD & 5
OPP 10
+6
85.3%
Treyvon Green run for 6 yds to the NDame 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:54
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
81.7%
Trevor Siemian pass complete to Kyle Prater for 4 yds for a TD, (Jack Mitchell KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:4083% → 82%
Q2 14:38
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+5
83.0%
Greg Bryant run for 5 yds to the NDame 27Similar
Q2 14:10
2ND & 5
OWN 27
0
83.0%
Everett Golson pass incomplete to C.J. ProsiseSimilar
Q2 14:04
3RD & 5
OWN 27
0
82.6%
Everett Golson pass incomplete to William FullerSimilar
Q2 13:58
4TH & 5
OWN 27
0
82.1%
Kyle Brindza punt for 26 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Nwest 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 9DOWNS
6 plays · 19 yds · 1:2718% → 18%
Q2 13:52
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+8
81.8%
Trevor Siemian pass complete to Tony Jones for 8 yds to the NDame 45Similar
Q2 13:18
2ND & 2
OPP 45
+4
81.4%
Treyvon Green run for 4 yds to the NDame 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:02
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
81.4%
Trevor Siemian pass incomplete to Tony JonesSimilar
Q2 12:59
2ND & 10
OPP 41
0
81.4%
Trevor Siemian pass incomplete to Dan VitaleSimilar
Q2 12:53
3RD & 10
OPP 41
+7
81.7%
Trevor Siemian pass complete to Warren Long for 7 yds to the NDame 34Similar
Q2 12:25
4TH & 3
OPP 34
0
81.9%
Trevor Siemian pass incomplete to Austin CarrSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 10INT
8 plays · 38 yds · 3:0183% → 83%
Q2 12:19
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+6
82.5%
Everett Golson run for 6 yds to the NDame 40Similar
Q2 11:55
2ND & 4
OWN 40
+11
83.0%
Tarean Folston run for 11 yds to the Nwest 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:30
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-8
83.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 8 yards to the NDame 43Similar
Q2 11:18
2ND & 18
OWN 43
-6
82.3%
Everett Golson run for a loss of 6 yards to the NDame 37Similar
Q2 10:35
3RD & 24
OWN 37
+33
81.4%
Everett Golson pass complete to C.J. Prosise for 33 yds to the Nwest 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:07
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
83.1%
Everett Golson pass incomplete to William FullerSimilar
Q2 9:56
2ND & 10
OPP 30
+2
83.1%
Tarean Folston run for 2 yds to the Nwest 28Similar
Q2 9:18
3RD & 8
OPP 28
+65
82.5%
Everett Golson pass intercepted Anthony Walker return for 65 yds to the NDame 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 11TD
1 play · 4 yds · 0:0025% → 25%
Q2 9:12
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
75.1%
Justin Jackson run for 4 yds for a TD, (Jack Mitchell KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 12TD
14 plays · 84 yds · 3:3477% → 83%
Q2 9:01
1ST & 10
OWN 16
0
77.3%
Everett Golson pass incomplete to C.J. ProsiseSimilar
Q2 8:55
2ND & 10
OWN 16
+12
77.1%
Tarean Folston run for 12 yds to the NDame 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:32
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+6
77.1%
Tarean Folston run for 6 yds to the NDame 34Similar
Q2 8:04
2ND & 4
OWN 34
+5
77.3%
Everett Golson run for 5 yds to the NDame 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:38
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+1
76.5%
Cam McDaniel run for 1 yd to the NDame 40Similar
Q2 7:01
2ND & 9
OWN 40
+7
76.1%
Everett Golson run for 7 yds to the NDame 47Similar
Q2 6:47
3RD & 2
OWN 47
+5
77.2%
Cam McDaniel run for 5 yds to the Nwest 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:15
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+8
77.6%
Everett Golson pass complete to Chris Brown for 8 yds to the Nwest 40Similar
Q2 6:00
2ND & 2
OPP 40
+3
77.6%
Tarean Folston run for 3 yds to the Nwest 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:39
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
77.4%
Everett Golson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:33
2ND & 10
OPP 37
+14
77.2%
Golson, Everett pass incomplete to Robinson, Corey (Hall, Jimmy), PENALTY NORTHWSTRN pass interference (Hall, Jimmy) 14 yards to the NORTHWSTRN23, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN NOTREDAME. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:27
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+23
83.4%
Everett Golson pass complete to William Fuller for 23 yds for a TD, (Kyle Brindza KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 13INT
8 plays · 70 yds · 2:0119% → 19%
Q2 5:19
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
81.5%
Justin Jackson run for 2 yds to the Nwest 27Similar
Q2 5:00
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
81.4%
Trevor Siemian pass incomplete to Cameron Dickerson, broken up by Jarron JonesSimilar
Q2 4:35
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+60
81.9%
Trevor Siemian pass complete to Cameron Dickerson for 60 yds to the NDame 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:12
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+5
78.7%
Treyvon Green run for 5 yds to the NDame 8Similar
Q2 3:45
2ND & 5
OPP 8
+3
78.6%
Treyvon Green run for 3 yds to the NDame 5Similar
Q2 3:18
3RD & 2
OPP 5
+39
81.0%
Trevor Siemian pass intercepted Matthias Farley return for 39 yds to the NDame 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 14MISSED FG
8 plays · 40 yds · 2:4082% → 82%
Q2 3:13
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-2
82.2%
Tarean Folston run for a loss of 2 yards to the NDame 37Similar
Q2 2:48
2ND & 12
OWN 37
+21
81.4%
Everett Golson pass complete to Chris Brown for 21 yds to the Nwest 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:26
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+13
82.8%
Tarean Folston run for 13 yds to the Nwest 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:06
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
83.3%
Everett Golson pass incomplete to Ben KoyackSimilar
Q2 1:56
2ND & 10
OPP 29
+6
83.0%
Tarean Folston run for 6 yds to the Nwest 23Similar
Q2 1:11
3RD & 4
OPP 23
+2
82.1%
Everett Golson run for 2 yds to the Nwest 21Similar
Q2 0:33
4TH & 2
OPP 21
+38
81.6%
Kyle Brindza 38 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 15END OF HALF
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0018% → 18%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 21
-1
82.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Nwest 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 16FG
11 plays · 60 yds · 3:3021% → 24%
Q3 14:41
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
78.8%
Trevor Siemian pass incomplete to Garrett DickersonSimilar
Q3 14:34
2ND & 10
OWN 26
+12
78.9%
Trevor Siemian pass complete to Cameron Dickerson for 12 yds to the Nwest 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:15
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+3
77.8%
Justin Jackson run for 3 yds to the Nwest 41Similar
Q3 13:53
2ND & 7
OWN 41
+29
76.9%
Trevor Siemian pass complete to Kyle Prater for 29 yds to the NDame 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:32
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+9
74.9%
Trevor Siemian pass complete to Justin Jackson for 9 yds to the NDame 21Similar
Q3 13:15
2ND & 1
OPP 21
+16
74.4%
Trevor Siemian run for 16 yds to the NDame 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:52
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
0
74.3%
Justin Jackson run for no gain to the NDame 5Similar
Q3 12:19
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+1
74.0%
Treyvon Green run for 1 yd to the NDame 4Similar
Q3 11:33
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
-10
74.7%
Trevor Siemian sacked by Sheldon Day for a loss of 10 yards to the NDame 14Similar
Q3 11:11
4TH & GOAL
OPP 14
+31
76.5%
Jack Mitchell 31 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 17PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:4176% → 74%
Q3 10:57
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+1
76.4%
Everett Golson run for 1 yd to the NDame 27Similar
Q3 10:34
2ND & 9
OWN 27
0
76.0%
Everett Golson pass incomplete to Chris BrownSimilar
Q3 10:30
3RD & 9
OWN 27
0
74.9%
Everett Golson pass incomplete to Chris BrownSimilar
Q3 10:16
4TH & 9
OWN 27
-3
74.3%
Kyle Brindza punt for 52 yds , Mike McHugh returns for a loss of 3 yards to the Nwest 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 18FUMBLE
3 plays · 8 yds · 1:0625% → 23%
Q3 10:00
1ST & 10
OWN 18
-4
75.4%
Trevor Siemian pass complete to Kyle Prater for a loss of 4 yards to the Nwest 14Similar
Q3 9:15
2ND & 14
OWN 14
-7
75.5%
Trevor Siemian sacked by Isaac Rochell for a loss of 7 yards to the Nwest 7Similar
Q3 8:54
3RD & 21
OWN 7
+5
76.7%
Justin Jackson run for 19 yds to the Nwest 21 Justin Jackson fumbled, forced by Jaylon Smith, recovered by NDame Drue Tranquill , return for 5 yds to the Nwest 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 19FUMBLE
2 plays · 14 yds · 0:2379% → 79%
Q3 8:48
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+16
79.0%
Amir Carlisle run for 16 yds to the Nwest 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:25
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
-2
78.9%
Everett Golson run for a loss of 2 yards to the Nwest 7 Everett Golson fumbled, recovered by Nwest Anthony WalkerSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 20PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 1:2925% → 23%
Q3 8:11
1ST & 10
OWN 7
-1
75.0%
Treyvon Green run for a loss of 1 yard to the Nwest 6Similar
Q3 7:54
2ND & 11
OWN 6
0
75.1%
Trevor Siemian run for no gain to the Nwest 6Similar
Q3 7:16
3RD & 11
OWN 6
+2
76.0%
Treyvon Green run for 2 yds to the Nwest 8Similar
Q3 6:42
4TH & 9
OWN 8
0
76.6%
Chris Gradone punt for 47 yds , Greg Bryant returns for no gain to the NDame 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 21TD
9 plays · 55 yds · 3:0177% → 90%
Q3 6:37
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+3
76.9%
Tarean Folston run for 3 yds to the NDame 48Similar
Q3 6:05
2ND & 7
OWN 48
+5
77.0%
Tarean Folston run for 5 yds to the Nwest 47Similar
Q3 5:41
3RD & 2
OPP 47
+8
76.8%
Everett Golson pass complete to Ben Koyack for 8 yds to the Nwest 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:10
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+3
77.3%
Cam McDaniel run for 3 yds to the Nwest 36Similar
Q3 4:43
2ND & 7
OPP 36
0
76.9%
Everett Golson pass incomplete to William FullerSimilar
Q3 4:38
3RD & 7
OPP 36
0
76.3%
Everett Golson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:23
4TH & 7
OPP 36
+11
74.0%
Everett Golson pass complete to Corey Robinson for 11 yds Corey Robinson fumbled, forced by Matthew Harris, recovered by NDame Amir Carlisle for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:03
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+2
77.5%
Tarean Folston run for 2 yds to the Nwest 23Similar
Q3 3:36
2ND & 8
OPP 23
+23
89.5%
Everett Golson pass complete to William Fuller for 23 yds for a TD, (Kyle Brindza KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 22FG
11 plays · 46 yds · 4:1315% → 27%
Q3 3:31
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
85.3%
Justin Jackson run for 15 yds to the Nwest 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:16
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+17
85.6%
Justin Jackson run for 2 yds to the NDame 42 for a 1ST down NOTRE DAME Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Nyles Morgan) to the NDame 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:45
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+4
84.5%
Justin Jackson run for 4 yds to the NDame 39Similar
Q3 2:15
2ND & 6
OPP 39
+1
84.1%
Justin Jackson run for 1 yd to the NDame 38Similar
Q3 1:49
3RD & 5
OPP 38
+3
84.8%
Trevor Siemian run for 3 yds to the NDame 35Similar
Q3 1:28
4TH & 2
OPP 35
+2
85.7%
Trevor Siemian run for 2 yds to the NDame 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:00
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+6
83.5%
Trevor Siemian pass complete to Treyvon Green for 6 yds to the NDame 27Similar
Q3 0:35
2ND & 4
OPP 27
+2
83.1%
Treyvon Green run for 2 yds to the NDame 25Similar
Q4 14:51
3RD & 2
OPP 25
-4
84.4%
Matt Alviti run for a loss of 4 yards to the NDame 29Similar
Q4 14:18
4TH & 6
OPP 29
+46
73.0%
Jack Mitchell 46 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 23FUMBLE
7 plays · 69 yds · 2:1178% → 83%
Q4 14:06
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
77.6%
Everett Golson pass incomplete to Chris BrownSimilar
Q4 13:53
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+8
77.1%
Tarean Folston run for 8 yds to the NDame 38Similar
Q4 13:32
3RD & 2
OWN 38
+14
78.9%
Everett Golson pass complete to Ben Koyack for 14 yds to the Nwest 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:06
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+42
80.8%
Everett Golson pass complete to William Fuller for 42 yds to the Nwest 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:32
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+1
83.1%
C.J. Prosise run for 1 yd to the Nwest 5Similar
Q4 11:55
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+4
83.0%
Chris Brown run for 4 yds Chris Brown fumbled, forced by Ibraheim Campbell, recovered by Nwest Jimmy HallSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 24INT
2 plays · 14 yds · 0:2626% → 27%
Q4 11:49
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+14
74.0%
Justin Jackson run for 14 yds to the Nwest 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:23
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+4
72.9%
Trevor Siemian pass intercepted for a 1ST down Cole Luke return for 16 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down NORTHWESTERN Penalty, Face Mask (12 yards) (Tony Jones) to the Nwest 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 25TD
3 plays · 13 yds · 0:3684% → 92%
Q4 11:10
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+2
84.0%
Tarean Folston run for 2 yds to the Nwest 11Similar
Q4 10:40
2ND & 8
OPP 11
0
84.0%
Everett Golson pass incomplete to Ben KoyackSimilar
Q4 10:34
3RD & 8
OPP 11
+11
92.1%
Everett Golson pass complete to William Fuller for 11 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 26MISSED FG
7 plays · 32 yds · 1:4410% → 9%
Q4 10:27
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+13
90.0%
Justin Jackson run for 13 yds to the NDame 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:59
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+13
89.0%
Justin Jackson run for 13 yds to the NDame 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:23
1ST & 10
OPP 32
-1
89.1%
Justin Jackson run for a loss of 1 yard to the NDame 33Similar
Q4 9:08
2ND & 11
OPP 33
+7
89.3%
Trevor Siemian pass complete to Cameron Dickerson for 7 yds to the NDame 26Similar
Q4 8:55
3RD & 4
OPP 26
0
89.8%
Trevor Siemian pass incomplete to Kyle Prater, broken up by Justin UtupoSimilar
Q4 8:43
4TH & 4
OPP 26
+43
91.2%
Jack Mitchell 43 yd FG BLOCKED blocked by Mike McGlinchey Drue Tranquill return for 15 yds to the NDame 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 27PUNT
9 plays · 35 yds · 2:2592% → 94%
Q4 8:33
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+6
92.1%
Everett Golson pass complete to Chris Brown for 6 yds to the NDame 27Similar
Q4 7:59
2ND & 4
OWN 27
+2
92.5%
Tarean Folston run for 2 yds to the NDame 29Similar
Q4 7:21
3RD & 2
OWN 29
+11
92.5%
Everett Golson pass complete to Chris Brown for 11 yds to the NDame 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:05
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+15
93.3%
Golson, Everett pass incomplete to Robinson, Corey, PENALTY NORTHWSTRN personal foul (Mahoney, Connor) 15 yards to the NORTHWSTRN45, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN NOTREDAME. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:52
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-1
93.5%
Everett Golson pass complete to Tarean Folston for a loss of 1 yard to the Nwest 46Similar
Q4 6:21
2ND & 11
OPP 46
+2
93.7%
Tarean Folston run for 2 yds to the Nwest 44Similar
Q4 6:18
3RD & 9
OPP 44
0
94.5%
Everett Golson pass incomplete to William FullerSimilar
Q4 6:08
4TH & 9
OPP 44
0
94.4%
Kyle Brindza punt for 17 yds, downed at the Nwest 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 28TD
9 plays · 73 yds · 1:546% → 36%
Q4 6:04
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
93.8%
Trevor Siemian pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:53
2ND & 10
OWN 27
+7
94.2%
Trevor Siemian pass complete to Dan Vitale for 7 yds to the Nwest 34Similar
Q4 5:48
3RD & 3
OWN 34
+5
93.4%
Trevor Siemian run for 5 yds to the Nwest 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:33
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+19
93.0%
Trevor Siemian pass complete to Treyvon Green for 4 yds to the NDame 43 for a 1ST down NOTRE DAME Penalty, Personal Foul (Justin Utupo) to the NDame 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:25
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+11
92.7%
Trevor Siemian pass complete to Warren Long for 11 yds to the NDame 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:10
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+15
92.0%
Trevor Siemian run for 15 yds to the NDame 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:45
1ST & 10
OPP 16
0
91.7%
Trevor Siemian pass incomplete to Mike McHughSimilar
Q4 4:38
2ND & 10
OPP 16
+10
91.7%
Trevor Siemian pass complete to Tim Hanrahan for 10 yds to the NDame 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:10
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
63.7%
Trevor Siemian run for 6 yds for a TD, (W. Long Run For Two-point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 29FUMBLE
10 plays · 33 yds · 2:3584% → 92%
Q4 4:03
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+9
83.5%
Tarean Folston run for 9 yds to the NDame 48Similar
Q4 3:35
2ND & 1
OWN 48
+3
84.9%
Everett Golson pass complete to Corey Robinson for 3 yds to the Nwest 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:30
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-3
88.9%
Everett Golson run for a loss of 3 yards to the NDame 48Similar
Q4 1:48
2ND & 13
OWN 48
+4
89.0%
Everett Golson pass complete to William Fuller for 4 yds to the Nwest 48Similar
Q4 1:42
3RD & 9
OPP 48
+15
89.2%
Golson, Everett pass incomplete to Robinson, Corey, PENALTY NORTHWSTRN pass interference (Hall, Jimmy) 15 yards to the NORTHWSTRN33, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN NOTREDAME. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:36
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+2
91.6%
Tarean Folston run for 2 yds to the Nwest 31Similar
Q4 1:28
2ND & 8
OPP 31
+3
92.4%
Cam McDaniel run for 3 yds to the Nwest 28 Cam McDaniel fumbled, forced by Ibraheim Campbell, recovered by Nwest Jimmy HallSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 30FG
10 plays · 44 yds · 0:5714% → 52%
Q4 1:16
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+8
85.9%
Trevor Siemian pass complete to Kyle Prater for 8 yds to the Nwest 36Similar
Q4 1:07
2ND & 1
OWN 36
+7
82.9%
Trevor Siemian pass complete to Cameron Dickerson for 7 yds Cameron Dickerson fumbled, recovered by Nwest for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:53
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+17
85.8%
Trevor Siemian pass complete to Kyle Prater for 17 yds to the NDame 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:44
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+7
82.8%
Trevor Siemian pass complete to Kyle Prater for 7 yds to the NDame 33Similar
Q4 0:41
2ND & 3
OPP 33
+5
79.9%
Trevor Siemian pass complete to Kyle Prater for 5 yds to the NDame 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:35
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
79.1%
Trevor Siemian pass incomplete to Kyle Prater, broken up by Devin ButlerSimilar
Q4 0:29
2ND & 10
OPP 28
0
79.8%
Trevor Siemian pass incomplete to Mike McHughSimilar
Q4 0:25
3RD & 10
OPP 28
0
83.2%
Trevor Siemian pass incomplete to Cameron DickersonSimilar
Q4 0:19
4TH & 10
OPP 28
+45
48.4%
Jack Mitchell 45 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 31END OF GAME
2 plays · 2 yds · 0:0061% → 61%
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
60.5%
Everett Golson pass complete to William Fuller for 2 yds to the NDame 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 32MISSED FG
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:0065% → 57%
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
64.7%
Everett Golson pass complete to Tarean Folston for no gain to the Nwest 25Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 25
0
64.5%
Everett Golson pass incomplete to Corey RobinsonSimilar
OT 0:00
3RD & 10
OPP 25
0
61.8%
Everett Golson pass incomplete to William FullerSimilar
OT 0:00
4TH & 10
OPP 25
+42
56.8%
Kyle Brindza 42 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 33FG
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:0060% → 72%
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
40.5%
Justin Jackson run for no gain to the NDame 25Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 25
-3
41.1%
Justin Jackson run for a loss of 3 yards to the NDame 28Similar
OT 0:00
3RD & 13
OPP 28
+4
46.3%
Warren Long run for 4 yds to the NDame 24Similar
OT 0:00
4TH & 9
OPP 24
+41
28.5%
Jack Mitchell 41 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
FG · Q4 0:19
Jack Mitchell 45 yd FG GOOD
-36.4
End of Game · Final
Game over.
-28.5
TD · Q4 4:10
Trevor Siemian run for 6 yds for a TD, (W. Long Run For Two-point Conversion)
-28.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com