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FSU

Florida State 3 at Notre Dame 52

ND
2024 · Week 11 · Nov 9, 2024 · Notre Dame Stadium
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Win probability · ND
modelND aheadFSU aheadconfidence bandkey playND scoreFSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDTDTDFGTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:23 · Lawrance Toafili run for 3 yds to the FSU 31
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout marginGarbage-time factor
+44.5+22.30−22.3−44.5Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. FG · Q1 5:22: Ryan Fitzgerald 23 yd FG GOOD — FSU win probability +0.5 pts (now 8%) (top driver: FSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 14:35: Jadarian Price run for 65 yds for a TD (Mitch Jeter KICK) — ND win probability +3.5 pts (now 94%) (top driver: Lead backed by the offense's own timeouts).
  3. TD · Q2 0:17: Riley Leonard pass complete to Mitchell Evans for 12 yds for a TD (Mitch Jeter KICK) — ND win probability +3.3 pts (now 93%) (top driver: ND has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 9:38: Riley Leonard run for 6 yds for a TD (Mitch Jeter KICK) — ND win probability +2.3 pts (now 99%) (top driver: ND has the ball).
  5. FG · Q3 1:05: Mitch Jeter 28 yd FG GOOD — ND win probability +0.2 pts (now 100%) (top driver: ND has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ND made the numbers' call on 5 of 7FSU made the numbers' call on 7 of 10
  1. Q1 8:34FSU 4th & 1 at ND 25, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 6.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    6.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    6.7%−0.1
    66% to make
    Punt
    6.3%−0.5
    average punt
  2. Q1 5:22FSU 4th & 5 at ND 5, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 7.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.3%−<0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    7.3%
    92% to make
    Punt
    6.9%−0.5
    average punt
  3. Q1 4:33ND 4th & 8 at ND 27, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 91.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.7%−0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    91.8%
    average punt
  4. Q1 2:53FSU 4th & 3 at FSU 39, down 4
    Close callPunted · 8.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.5%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.4%−0.1
    average punt
  5. Q1 1:31ND 4th & 13 at ND 18, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 90.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.4%−0.3
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    90.8%
    average punt
  6. Q1 0:46FSU 4th & 9 at FSU 43, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.0%−0.2
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    9.1%
    average punt
  7. Q2 10:18FSU 4th & 22 at FSU 39, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.4%−0.4
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.8%
    average punt
  8. Q2 8:16ND 4th & 3 at FSU 47, up 11
    Close callPunted · 92.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.2%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    91.9%−0.3
    average punt
  9. Q2 6:44FSU 4th & 3 at FSU 24, down 11
    Close callPunted · 8.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.0%
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.0%−<0.1
    average punt
  10. Q2 2:36ND 4th & 6 at FSU 24, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 91.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.5%−<0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    91.5%
    68% to make
    Punt
    89.9%−1.6
    average punt
  11. Q2 2:00FSU 4th & 14 at FSU 20, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.3%−0.4
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.7%
    average punt
  12. Q2 0:42ND 4th & 2 at FSU 44, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 91.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    91.9%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    91.6%−0.3
    27% to make
    Punt
    91.6%−0.3
    average punt
  13. Q2 0:21ND 4th & 10 at FSU 34, up 11
    Close callWent for it · 91.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    91.6%−0.4
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    91.9%
    47% to make
    Punt
    91.3%−0.7
    average punt
  14. Q3 4:02FSU 4th & 12 at ND 27, down 25
    Close callWent for it · 0.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.7%−0.2
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    0.9%
    62% to make
    Punt
    0.0%−0.9
    average punt
  15. Q3 1:05ND 4th & 5 at FSU 10, up 25
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.3%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    99.4%
    88% to make
    Punt
    98.5%−0.8
    average punt
  16. Q4 14:54FSU 4th & 10 at FSU 26, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−0.1
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.2%
    average punt
  17. Q4 8:36FSU 4th & 4 at FSU 22, down 35
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−<0.1
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ND made the numbers' call on 6 of 7
  1. Q1 13:17ND Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 14:35ND Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 0:17ND Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 9:38ND Touchdown, up 24 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 10:53ND Touchdown, up 34 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 4:06ND Touchdown, up 41 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 1:23ND Touchdown, up 48 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
NDDrive 1TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 1:4394% → 94%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
94.4%
Riley Leonard pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:54
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+4
94.4%
Jeremiyah Love run for 4 yds to the ND 29Similar
Q1 14:19
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+28
94.3%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Aneyas Williams for 28 yds to the FSU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:54
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+9
94.2%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Mitchell Evans for 9 yds to the FSU 34Similar
Q1 13:17
2ND & 1
OPP 34
+34
94.3%
Riley Leonard run for 34 yds for a TD (Mitch Jeter KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 2FG
19 plays · 75 yds · 7:506% → 8%
Q1 13:12
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
94.2%
Lawrance Toafili run for 4 yds to the FSU 24Similar
Q1 12:43
2ND & 6
OWN 24
-5
94.1%
Florida State Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the FSU 19Similar
Q1 12:31
2ND & 11
OWN 19
+14
94.1%
Lawrance Toafili run for 14 yds to the FSU 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:11
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+4
94.0%
Lawrance Toafili run for 4 yds to the FSU 37Similar
Q1 11:34
2ND & 6
OWN 37
0
93.9%
Brock Glenn pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:32
3RD & 6
OWN 37
+5
93.9%
Brock Glenn run for 5 yds to the FSU 42Similar
Q1 10:49
4TH & 1
OWN 42
0
93.8%
(10:49) GLENN, Brock pass short to the right complete for 7 yards to MORLOCK, Kyle caught at the FSU46 and advanced to the FSU49 (COLZIE, Deion), out of bounds, clock 10:46. PENALTY UND Offsides on CLARK, Jordan declined UND Holding on CLARK, Jordan enforced 10 yards from the FSU42 to the UND48 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 10:29
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+14
93.7%
Brock Glenn pass complete to Kyle Morlock for 14 yds to the ND 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:51
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+2
93.5%
Samuel Singleton Jr. run for 2 yds to the ND 32Similar
Q1 9:23
2ND & 8
OPP 32
0
93.5%
Brock Glenn pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:16
3RD & 8
OPP 32
+7
93.6%
Lawrance Toafili run for 7 yds to the ND 25Similar
Q1 8:34
4TH & 1
OPP 25
+4
93.5%
Ja'Khi Douglas run for 4 yds to the ND 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:55
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+7
93.1%
Malik Benson run for 7 yds to the ND 14Similar
Q1 7:29
2ND & 3
OPP 14
+7
93.0%
Lawrance Toafili run for 7 yds to the ND 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:08
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+3
93.0%
Lawrance Toafili run for 3 yds to the ND 4Similar
Q1 6:46
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
0
92.9%
Brock Glenn run for no gain to the ND 4Similar
Q1 6:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
-1
92.7%
Brock Glenn sacked by Bryce Young and Jaiden Ausberry for a loss of 1 yard to the ND 5Similar
Q1 5:22
4TH & GOAL
OPP 5
+23
92.2%
Ryan Fitzgerald 23 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:4993% → 92%
Q1 5:22
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
92.5%
Riley Leonard pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:13
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+2
92.4%
Jeremiyah Love run for 2 yds to the ND 27Similar
Q1 4:37
3RD & 8
OWN 27
0
92.1%
Riley Leonard pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:33
4TH & 8
OWN 27
0
92.0%
James Rendell punt for 41 yds, downed at the FSU 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 1:288% → 8%
Q1 4:21
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+2
92.0%
Lawrance Toafili run for 2 yds to the FSU 34Similar
Q1 3:46
2ND & 8
OWN 34
+5
91.8%
Lawrance Toafili run for 5 yds to the FSU 39Similar
Q1 2:58
3RD & 3
OWN 39
0
91.7%
Brock Glenn pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:53
4TH & 3
OWN 39
0
91.9%
Alex Mastromanno punt for 40 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · -3 yds · 1:1592% → 91%
Q1 2:46
1ST & 10
OWN 21
-1
91.5%
Jeremiyah Love run for a loss of 1 yard to the ND 20Similar
Q1 2:16
2ND & 11
OWN 20
-2
91.3%
Jadarian Price run for a loss of 2 yards to the ND 18Similar
Q1 1:35
3RD & 13
OWN 18
0
91.0%
Riley Leonard pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:31
4TH & 13
OWN 18
0
90.8%
James Rendell punt for 40 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:399% → 9%
Q1 1:25
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+1
91.1%
Brock Glenn run for 1 yd to the FSU 43Similar
Q1 0:55
2ND & 9
OWN 43
0
90.9%
Brock Glenn pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 0:50
3RD & 9
OWN 43
0
91.1%
Brock Glenn pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 0:46
4TH & 9
OWN 43
0
91.4%
Alex Mastromanno punt for 41 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 7TD
3 plays · 84 yds · 1:0591% → 94%
Q1 0:40
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+17
90.9%
Jadarian Price run for 17 yds to the ND 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:02
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+2
90.7%
Jadarian Price run for 2 yds to the ND 35Similar
Q2 14:35
2ND & 8
OWN 35
+65
94.2%
Jadarian Price run for 65 yds for a TD (Mitch Jeter KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 8PUNT
9 plays · 14 yds · 4:177% → 7%
Q2 14:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
92.6%
Luke Kromenhoek run for 6 yds to the FSU 31Similar
Q2 14:00
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+9
92.3%
Luke Kromenhoek pass complete to Landen Thomas for 9 yds to the FSU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:21
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+5
92.2%
Lawrance Toafili run for 5 yds to the FSU 45Similar
Q2 12:44
2ND & 5
OWN 45
+6
92.0%
Samuel Singleton Jr. run for 6 yds to the ND 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:16
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
91.7%
Samuel Singleton Jr. run for no gain to the ND 49Similar
Q2 11:52
2ND & 10
OPP 49
-7
92.4%
Luke Kromenhoek sacked by Rylie Mills for a loss of 7 yards to the FSU 44Similar
Q2 11:05
3RD & 17
OWN 44
-5
92.8%
Luke Kromenhoek sacked by Rylie Mills for a loss of 5 yards to the FSU 39Similar
Q2 10:18
4TH & 22
OWN 39
0
93.0%
Alex Mastromanno punt for 36 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 9PUNT
6 plays · 28 yds · 1:5794% → 94%
Q2 10:13
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+21
94.3%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Jayden Harrison for 21 yds to the ND 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:35
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+4
94.6%
Riley Leonard run for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 9:00
2ND & 6
50
+3
94.6%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Jordan Faison for 3 yds to the FSU 47Similar
Q2 8:18
3RD & 3
OPP 47
0
94.2%
Riley Leonard pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:16
4TH & 3
OPP 47
+9
94.1%
James Rendell punt for 39 yds , Lawayne McCoy returns for 9 yds to the FSU 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 10PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 1:207% → 7%
Q2 8:04
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+5
92.6%
Brock Glenn run for 5 yds to the FSU 22Similar
Q2 7:25
2ND & 5
OWN 22
+2
92.5%
Brock Glenn run for 2 yds to the FSU 24Similar
Q2 6:46
3RD & 3
OWN 24
0
92.7%
Brock Glenn pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:44
4TH & 3
OWN 24
0
93.0%
Alex Mastromanno punt for 26 yds, downed at the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 11MISSED FG
8 plays · 26 yds · 3:5995% → 94%
Q2 6:35
1ST & 10
50
+7
94.7%
Riley Leonard run for 7 yds to the FSU 43Similar
Q2 5:53
2ND & 3
OPP 43
+5
94.6%
Jeremiyah Love run for 5 yds to the FSU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:20
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+4
94.7%
Riley Leonard run for 4 yds to the FSU 34Similar
Q2 4:43
2ND & 6
OPP 34
+6
94.0%
(04:43) LEONARD, Riley pass up the middle incomplete intended for RARIDON, Eli thrown to the FSU26; QB hurried by BARKER, Ashlynd, clock 04:40. PENALTY FSU Pass Interference on GRAHAM JR., Omar enforced at the spot of the foul for 6 yards to the FSU28 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 4:40
1ST & 10
OPP 28
-1
94.2%
Jadarian Price run for a loss of 1 yard to the FSU 29Similar
Q2 4:00
2ND & 11
OPP 29
+2
94.4%
Aneyas Williams run for 2 yds to the FSU 27Similar
Q2 3:18
3RD & 9
OPP 27
+3
94.3%
Riley Leonard run for 3 yds to the FSU 24Similar
Q2 2:36
4TH & 6
OPP 24
+42
94.0%
Mitch Jeter 42 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 12PUNT
5 plays · -4 yds · 0:317% → 6%
Q2 2:31
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
93.1%
Brock Glenn pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:29
2ND & 10
OWN 24
0
93.2%
Brock Glenn pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:24
3RD & 10
OWN 24
-4
93.5%
Brock Glenn sacked by Donovan Hinish for a loss of 4 yards to the FSU 20Similar
Q2 2:00
4TH & 14
OWN 20
0
94.0%
Alex Mastromanno punt for 57 yds , Max Hurleman returns for no gain to the ND 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 13TD
16 plays · 77 yds · 1:3194% → 93%
Q2 1:48
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+9
94.2%
Aneyas Williams run for 9 yds to the ND 32Similar
Q2 1:26
2ND & 1
OWN 32
0
94.3%
Riley Leonard pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:24
3RD & 1
OWN 32
+6
93.9%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Jaden Greathouse for 6 yds to the ND 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:10
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+10
94.5%
(01:10) LEONARD, Riley pass to the left complete for 7 yards to WILLIAMS, Aneyas caught at the UND45 and advanced to the UND45, End of Play, clock 01:08. PENALTY FSU Holding on GRAHAM JR., Omar enforced 10 yards from the UND38 to the UND48 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-7
94.6%
Riley Leonard sacked by Kevin Knowles II for a loss of 7 yards to the ND 41Similar
Q2 0:55
2ND & 16
OWN 42
0
94.4%
Riley Leonard pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:50
3RD & 17
OWN 41
+15
94.1%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Beaux Collins for 15 yds to the FSU 44Similar
Q2 0:42
4TH & 2
OPP 44
+10
93.9%
Riley Leonard run for 10 yds to the FSU 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:39
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
94.3%
Riley Leonard pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:32
2ND & 10
OPP 34
0
94.3%
Riley Leonard pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:25
3RD & 10
OPP 34
0
93.9%
Riley Leonard pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:21
4TH & 10
OPP 34
+22
90.0%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Jordan Faison for 22 yds to the FSU 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:17
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+12
93.3%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Mitchell Evans for 12 yds for a TD (Mitch Jeter KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 14END OF HALF
1 play · 5 yds · 0:006% → 6%
Q2 0:12
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+5
93.8%
Lawrance Toafili run for 5 yds to the FSU 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 15INT
5 plays · 7 yds · 2:175% → 5%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+7
94.8%
Brock Glenn run for 7 yds to the FSU 36Similar
Q3 14:22
2ND & 3
OWN 36
+7
94.5%
Lawrance Toafili run for 7 yds to the FSU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:57
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+3
94.6%
Lawrance Toafili run for 3 yds to the FSU 46Similar
Q3 13:24
2ND & 7
OWN 46
-10
94.5%
Brock Glenn sacked by Rylie Mills for a loss of 10 yards to the FSU 36Similar
Q3 12:38
3RD & 17
OWN 36
0
95.2%
Brock Glenn pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 16TD
6 plays · 38 yds · 2:5597% → 99%
Q3 12:33
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+3
96.6%
Jeremiyah Love run for 3 yds to the FSU 35Similar
Q3 11:53
2ND & 7
OPP 35
+10
96.6%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Jaden Greathouse for 10 yds to the FSU 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:10
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
96.7%
Riley Leonard pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 11:07
2ND & 10
OPP 25
-1
96.7%
Jeremiyah Love run for a loss of 1 yard to the FSU 26Similar
Q3 10:22
3RD & 11
OPP 26
+20
96.7%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Jaden Greathouse for 20 yds to the FSU 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:38
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
99.0%
Riley Leonard run for 6 yds for a TD (Mitch Jeter KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 17DOWNS
12 plays · 35 yds · 5:363% → 2%
Q3 9:38
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
97.4%
Luke Kromenhoek run for 8 yds to the FSU 33Similar
Q3 9:02
2ND & 2
OWN 33
-5
97.2%
Florida State Penalty, False Start (Ja'Khi Douglas) to the FSU 28Similar
Q3 8:38
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+1
97.3%
Lawrance Toafili run for 1 yd to the FSU 29Similar
Q3 7:57
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+15
97.5%
Luke Kromenhoek pass complete to Lawrance Toafili for 15 yds to the FSU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:20
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+4
97.4%
Lawrance Toafili run for 4 yds to the FSU 48Similar
Q3 6:47
2ND & 6
OWN 48
0
97.5%
Luke Kromenhoek pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 6:43
3RD & 6
OWN 48
+27
97.5%
Samuel Singleton Jr. run for 27 yds to the ND 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:08
1ST & 10
OPP 25
-2
97.2%
Samuel Singleton Jr. run for a loss of 2 yards to the ND 27Similar
Q3 5:23
2ND & 12
OPP 27
-8
97.1%
Luke Kromenhoek sacked by Donovan Hinish for a loss of 8 yards to the ND 35Similar
Q3 4:42
3RD & 20
OPP 35
+8
97.6%
Luke Kromenhoek pass complete to Darion Williamson for 8 yds to the ND 27Similar
Q3 4:02
4TH & 12
OPP 27
-13
97.9%
Luke Kromenhoek sacked for a loss of 13 yards to the ND 40 Luke Kromenhoek fumbled, recovered by FSU Luke Kromenhoek , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 18FG
6 plays · 50 yds · 2:4999% → 100%
Q3 3:54
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+4
99.4%
Riley Leonard run for 4 yds to the ND 44Similar
Q3 3:14
2ND & 6
OWN 44
+15
99.5%
Florida State Penalty, Roughing the Passer on LITTLE JR., Earl enforced (Earl Little Jr.) to the FSU 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:44
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+9
99.5%
Riley Leonard run for 9 yds to the FSU 6Similar
Q3 2:01
2ND & 1
OPP 6
-4
99.5%
Riley Leonard sacked by Tomiwa Durojaiye for a loss of 4 yards to the FSU 10Similar
Q3 1:14
3RD & 5
OPP 10
0
99.6%
Riley Leonard pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 1:05
4TH & 5
OPP 10
+28
99.8%
Mitch Jeter 28 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 19PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 1:010% → 0%
Q3 0:55
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-2
99.8%
Luke Kromenhoek pass complete to Lawrance Toafili for a loss of 2 yards to the FSU 24Similar
Q3 0:23
2ND & 12
OWN 24
+2
99.8%
Samuel Singleton Jr. run for 2 yds to the FSU 26Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 10
OWN 26
0
99.9%
Luke Kromenhoek pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:54
4TH & 10
OWN 26
+12
99.9%
Alex Mastromanno punt for 51 yds , Max Hurleman returns for 12 yds to the ND 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 20TD
9 plays · 65 yds · 3:51100% → 100%
Q4 14:44
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
99.8%
Jeremiyah Love run for 2 yds to the ND 37Similar
Q4 14:04
2ND & 8
OWN 37
+13
99.9%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Jeremiyah Love for 13 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:21
1ST & 10
50
0
99.9%
Riley Leonard pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:47
2ND & 10
50
+15
99.9%
(12:47) LEONARD, Riley pass deep to the left incomplete intended for GREATHOUSE, Jaden thrown to the FSU24, clock 12:43. PENALTY FSU Pass Interference on KNOWLES II, Kevin enforced 15 yards to the FSU35 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 12:43
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+4
99.9%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Jaden Greathouse for 4 yds to the FSU 31Similar
Q4 12:09
2ND & 6
OPP 31
+4
99.9%
Jeremiyah Love run for 4 yds to the FSU 27Similar
Q4 11:23
3RD & 2
OPP 27
+26
99.9%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Jaden Greathouse for 26 yds to the FSU 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:53
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
99.9%
Jeremiyah Love run for 1 yd for a TD (Mitch Jeter KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 21PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 2:080% → 0%
Q4 10:44
1ST & 10
OWN 16
-3
99.9%
Luke Kromenhoek sacked by Junior Tuihalamaka for a loss of 3 yards to the FSU 13Similar
Q4 10:09
2ND & 13
OWN 13
+2
99.9%
Samuel Singleton Jr. run for 2 yds to the FSU 15Similar
Q4 9:22
3RD & 11
OWN 15
+7
99.9%
Luke Kromenhoek pass complete to Lawrance Toafili for 7 yds to the FSU 22Similar
Q4 8:36
4TH & 4
OWN 22
0
99.9%
Alex Mastromanno punt for 35 yds, downed at the ND 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 22TD
8 plays · 57 yds · 4:18100% → 100%
Q4 8:24
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+2
99.9%
Jadarian Price run for 2 yds to the ND 45Similar
Q4 7:44
2ND & 8
OWN 45
+4
99.9%
Justin Fisher run for 4 yds to the ND 49Similar
Q4 7:09
3RD & 4
OWN 49
+16
99.9%
Steve Angeli pass complete to Justin Fisher for 16 yds to the FSU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:29
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
99.9%
Steve Angeli run for no gain to the FSU 35Similar
Q4 5:50
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+12
99.9%
Jadarian Price run for 12 yds to the FSU 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:14
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+14
100.0%
Steve Angeli pass complete to Jake Tafelski for 14 yds to the FSU 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:35
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+2
100.0%
Jake Tafelski run for 2 yds to the FSU 7Similar
Q4 4:06
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
100.0%
Steve Angeli pass complete to Deion Colzie for 7 yds for a TD (Mitch Jeter KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 23INT TD
12 plays · 55 yds · 2:430% → 0%
Q4 4:06
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
100.0%
Notre Dame Penalty, Offsides (5 Yards) to the FSU 30Similar
Q4 4:06
1ST & 5
OWN 30
+3
100.0%
Lawrance Toafili run for 3 yds to the FSU 33Similar
Q4 3:33
2ND & 2
OWN 33
0
100.0%
Brock Glenn pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:27
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+10
100.0%
Samuel Singleton Jr. run for 10 yds to the FSU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:56
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+2
100.0%
Brock Glenn pass complete to Samuel Singleton Jr. for 2 yds to the FSU 45Similar
Q4 2:20
2ND & 8
OWN 45
+10
100.0%
Brock Glenn pass complete to Lawayne McCoy for 10 yds to the ND 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:58
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+13
100.0%
Brock Glenn pass complete to Elijah Moore for 13 yds to the ND 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:53
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+12
100.0%
Brock Glenn pass complete to Lawayne McCoy for 12 yds to the ND 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:41
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
100.0%
Brock Glenn pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:41
2ND & 10
OPP 20
0
100.0%
Brock Glenn pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:23
3RD & 10
OPP 20
-79
100.0%
Brock Glenn pass intercepted Luke Talich return for 79 yds for a TD (Mitch Jeter KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 24END OF GAME
3 plays · 5 yds · 0:540% → 0%
Q4 1:17
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
100.0%
Luke Kromenhoek pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:11
2ND & 10
OWN 26
+2
100.0%
Luke Kromenhoek run for 2 yds to the FSU 28Similar
Q4 0:23
3RD & 8
OWN 28
+3
100.0%
Lawrance Toafili run for 3 yds to the FSU 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 14:35
Jadarian Price run for 65 yds for a TD (Mitch Jeter KICK)
+3.5
TD · Q2 0:17
Riley Leonard pass complete to Mitchell Evans for 12 yds for a TD (Mitch Jeter KICK)
+3.3
TD · Q3 9:38
Riley Leonard run for 6 yds for a TD (Mitch Jeter KICK)
+2.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com