Notre Dame

Profile vs. FBS, 2014

Farther out is better on every spoke. Dashed ring: the FBS median.

• EPA per play

  Expected points added on an average snap: how much each play moved the scoring odds.
  Offense+0.1755th
  Defense+0.1831st
• Success rate

  Share of snaps that stayed on schedule: half the yards needed on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of them on 3rd or 4th.
  Offense45.8%73rd
  Defense44.7%28th
• Explosiveness

  Average EPA on the successful snaps: how big the good plays were.
  Offense+1.2569th
  Defense+1.1952nd
• Rushing EPA

  EPA per designed run.
  Offense+0.0632nd
  Defense+0.1240th
• Passing EPA

  EPA per pass play.
  Offense+0.2871st
  Defense+0.2628th
• Standard downs

  Success rate on downs where either a run or a pass makes sense, like 1st and 10 or 3rd and 2.
  Offense48.9%60th
  Defense48.9%30th
• Passing downs

  Success rate on downs that all but force a pass, like 2nd and 8 or longer, or 3rd and 5 or longer.
  Offense39.4%91st
  Defense35.5%28th
• Line yards

  Rushing yards per carry credited to the offensive line, weighting the first few yards most.
  Offense2.9551st
  Defense2.8157th
• Stuff rate

  Share of runs stopped at or behind the line of scrimmage.
  Offense17.9%68th
  Defense22.5%77th
• Havoc

  Share of snaps with a tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception or pass breakup.
  Offense2.2%37th
  Defense1.7%31st

Percentiles among the 128 FBS teams this season, where higher is better for the offense and the defense alike (a defense's numbers are what it allowed). The line in each bar is the FBS median. Garbage time excluded. Source: CollegeFootballData.

Drives vs. expectation, 2014

Every snap has an expected-points value: what a drive from that spot, down and distance is worth on average. A drive over expected beat its starting spot; defense counts what Notre Dame allowed, so lower is better. The adjusted number fits every team against the opponents it actually played, so it leans toward average early in a season. Ranks are among FBS teams.

Game by game

1. W
   RICE
2. W
   MICH
3. W
   PUR
4. W
   SYR
5. W
   STAN
6. W
   UNC
7. L
   FSU
8. W
   NAVY
9. L
   ASU
10. L
    NU
11. L
    LOU
12. L
    USC
13. W
    LSU

Bars above the line: better than expected for Notre Dame.

Players, 2014

1. Everett GolsonQB481 plays · +0.264 pts/play · 14th of 199 QBs
   2.38WAR1.62 to 3.10
2. Tarean FolstonRB177 plays · +0.132 pts/play · 29th of 350 RBs
   0.44WAR0.32 to 0.55
3. William FullerWR93 plays · +0.222 pts/play · 12th of 469 WRs
   0.39WAR0.24 to 0.56
4. Corey RobinsonWR56 plays · +0.171 pts/play · 88th of 469 WRs
   0.18WAR0.10 to 0.25
5. Kyle BrindzaPK60 plays · +0.152 pts/play · 14th of 114 kickers
   0.17WAR0.10 to 0.24
6. Malik ZaireQB37 plays · +0.241 pts/play · 167th of 199 QBs
   0.17WAR0.08 to 0.26
7. Cam McDanielRB64 plays · +0.104 pts/play · 183rd of 350 RBs
   0.12WAR0.08 to 0.16
8. C.J. ProsiseRB50 plays · +0.099 pts/play · 225th of 350 RBs
   0.09WAR0.01 to 0.18

By position group, against FBS

Linemen and defenders are valued as units, in points per game against the median FBS unit, because play-by-play doesn't say who was on the field. Players are valued against a replacement-level backup, so the two aren't added together.

Wins above replacement credits each play's expected points to the players involved, adjusted for the opponent, and compares Notre Dame's players with a typical backup; 53 points make a win. Only snaps while the game was in doubt count, so a starter on a team that blows opponents out plays fewer of them: read value per play beside WAR. The line under each player (or the range on a phone) is the 90% interval. Ranks are among FBS teams and players. How this works

Fourth-down calls vs. the numbers, 2014

Each real fourth down is valued three ways (go for it, kick, punt) from the score, clock and field position before the snap, using league-wide odds rather than Notre Dame's own. A call that differs gives up the gap to the best option; gaps under one point are close calls, and the 8 clear-cut ones account for 0.15 of the 0.19 expected wins. The model sees the situation, not the injury report, so a call it disagrees with can still be right. Ranks are among FBS teams; 1st gave up the least.

Costliest calls against the numbers

1. at FSUQ4 5:12 4th & 8 at FSU 39, down 4Punted; the numbers favored going for it−3.7 pts
2. vs STANQ4 7:32 4th & 3 at STAN 28, tiedKicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it−2.9 pts
3. vs STANQ4 1:01 4th & 11 at STAN 23, down 4Went for it; the numbers favored a field goal−2.3 pts
4. vs STANQ4 12:08 4th & 3 at STAN 10, tiedKicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it−2.1 pts
5. at ASUQ4 14:55 4th & 10 at ASU 14, down 17Went for it; the numbers favored a field goal−1.2 pts
6. vs UNCQ2 2:36 4th & 1 at ND 34, up 1Punted; the numbers favored going for it−1.1 pts
7. at LSUQ4 9:49 4th & 4 at ND 39, tiedPunted; the numbers favored going for it−1.0 pts
8. at LSUQ3 10:23 4th & 5 at LSU 40, tiedPunted; the numbers favored going for it−1.0 pts

Record vs. expectation, 2014

76th of 128 FBS teams at beating the model's pregame expectations

Expected wins adds up Notre Dame's chance of winning each game as the model saw it at kickoff - a 70% favorite counts 0.7.

1. W

   RICE
2. W

   MICH
3. W

   PUR
4. W

   SYR
5. W

   STAN
6. W

   UNC
7. L

   FSU
8. W

   NAVY
9. L

   ASU
10. L

    NU
11. L

    LOU
12. L

    USC
13. W

    LSU

What moved it, 2014

Every game starts at Notre Dame's pregame chance; everything after that is the field. The model's own breakdown of each game's final play splits the on-field part by what drove it, and the parts add up exactly. How it works →

• Scoreboard+0.24
• Possession & field position+0.11
• Clock+0.22
• Timeouts−0.17
• Less the pregame edge, counted before kickoff−0.57

Game by game

• RICEW 48-17 vs RICE92% → 100%Before kickoff +42 · On the field +8: Scoreboard +11
• MICHW 31-0 vs MICH65% → 100%Before kickoff +15 · On the field +35: Scoreboard +37, Timeouts −1
• PURW 30-14 vs PUR96% → 99%Before kickoff +46 · On the field +3: Scoreboard +7
• SYRW 31-15 at SYR81% → 99%Before kickoff +31 · On the field +18: Scoreboard +29, Clock +1
• STANW 17-14 vs STAN39% → 85%Before kickoff −11 · On the field +46: Scoreboard +24, Timeouts +2
• UNCW 50-43 vs UNC87% → 97%Before kickoff +37 · On the field +10: Scoreboard +18, Timeouts +1
• FSUL 27-31 at FSU17% → 5%Before kickoff −33 · On the field −12: Scoreboard −22
• NAVYW 49-39 at NAVY85% → 96%Before kickoff +35 · On the field +11: Scoreboard +25, Clock +1
• ASUL 31-55 at ASU47% → 1%Before kickoff −3 · On the field −46: Scoreboard −43, Clock −1
• NUL 40-43 vs NU87% → 29%Before kickoff +37 · On the field −59: Scoreboard −35, Clock +20
• LOUL 28-31 vs LOU76% → 11%Before kickoff +26 · On the field −65: Scoreboard −50, Clock −3
• USCL 14-49 at USC30% → 0%Before kickoff −20 · On the field −30: Scoreboard −32
• LSUW 31-28 at LSU31% → 95%Before kickoff −19 · On the field +64: Scoreboard +53, Clock +3

Points of win probability, from Notre Dame's side.

Closest call

ND 32-29 VT (2021) - Notre Dame dropped to a 5.4% win probability before pulling it out.