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PUR

Purdue 14 at Notre Dame 30

ND
2014 · Week 3 · Sep 13, 2014 · Lucas Oil Stadium
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Win probability · ND
modelND aheadPUR aheadconfidence bandkey playND scorePUR score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGTDTDTDFGFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:00 · Danny Etling sacked by Kolin Hill and Romeo Okwara for a loss of 17 yards to the Prdue 30
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+46.5+23.30−23.3−46.5Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 1:50: Danny Etling pass complete to Brandon Cottom for 7 yds for a TD, (Paul Griggs KICK) — PUR win probability +1.3 pts (now 7%) (top driver: PUR has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 3:00: Danny Etling pass complete to DeAngelo Yancey for 19 yds for a TD, (Paul Griggs KICK) — PUR win probability +5.5 pts (now 18%) (top driver: PUR has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 0:13: Everett Golson run for 15 yds for a TD, (Kyle Brindza KICK) — ND win probability +4.6 pts (now 89%) (top driver: ND has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 4:05: Everett Golson pass complete to Corey Robinson for 15 yds for a TD, (Kyle Brindza KICK) — ND win probability +7.8 pts (now 93%) (top driver: ND has the ball).
  5. FG · Q4 9:31: Kyle Brindza 48 yd FG GOOD — ND win probability +4.2 pts (now 96%) (top driver: ND has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ND made the numbers' call on 6 of 8PUR made the numbers' call on 6 of 7
  1. Q1 10:13PUR 4th & 4 at PUR 31, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.5%−0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.5%
    average punt
  2. Q1 6:50ND 4th & 7 at PUR 33, up 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 95.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.1%
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    95.1%−<0.1
    49% to make
    Punt
    95.0%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q2 11:57ND 4th & 2 at PUR 2, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 91.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.7%
    48% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    91.5%−0.2
    94% to make
    Punt
    90.6%−1.1
    average punt
  4. Q2 6:37ND 4th & 10 at ND 2, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 89.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.6%−0.9
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    89.5%
    average punt
  5. Q2 5:16PUR 4th & 1 at ND 28, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 10.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    10.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    9.9%−0.9
    60% to make
    Punt
    8.0%−2.8
    average punt
  6. Q3 11:50PUR 4th & 17 at PUR 44, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.4%−1.8
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.2%
    average punt
  7. Q3 8:05ND 4th & 18 at ND 38, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 83.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.1%−2.1
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    84.2%
    average punt
  8. Q3 6:01PUR 4th & 3 at PUR 24, down 3
    Close callPunted · 16.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.5%
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.5%−<0.1
    average punt
  9. Q3 1:43PUR 4th & 5 at ND 34, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 9.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    9.8%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    9.4%−0.4
    47% to make
    Punt
    8.8%−1.0
    average punt
  10. Q3 0:21ND 4th & 7 at ND 38, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 91.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.2%−0.3
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    91.5%
    average punt
  11. Q4 14:39PUR 4th & 9 at PUR 17, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.9%−0.9
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.8%
    average punt
  12. Q4 9:31ND 4th & 15 at PUR 31, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 90.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.4%−1.0
    17% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    90.4%
    54% to make
    Punt
    89.7%−0.7
    average punt
  13. Q4 5:30ND 4th & 8 at PUR 22, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 96.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.9%−0.3
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    96.2%
    72% to make
    Punt
    93.6%−2.6
    average punt
  14. Q4 4:15PUR 4th & 5 at PUR 30, down 16
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 2.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.3%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    2.2%−0.1
    average punt
  15. Q4 0:36ND 4th & 1 at ND 14, up 16
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.9%−0.1
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    98.0%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ND made the numbers' call on 3 of 3PUR made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 12:23ND Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 1:50PUR Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    6.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    6.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 3:00PUR Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    16.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    16.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 0:13ND Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    87.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    87.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 4:05ND Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
NDDrive 1TD
7 plays · 45 yds · 2:1796% → 96%
Q1 14:40
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+12
96.4%
Tarean Folston run for 12 yds to the Prdue 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:30
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+16
96.4%
Everett Golson pass complete to Tarean Folston for 16 yds to the Prdue 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:00
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+7
96.3%
Everett Golson pass complete to Amir Carlisle for 7 yds to the Prdue 10Similar
Q1 13:45
2ND & 3
OPP 10
0
96.3%
Tarean Folston run for no gain to the Prdue 10Similar
Q1 13:00
3RD & 3
OPP 10
+4
96.2%
Tarean Folston run for 4 yds to the Prdue 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:23
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
96.2%
Everett Golson pass complete to William Fuller for 6 yds for a TD, (Kyle Brindza KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 2PUNT
6 plays · 6 yds · 1:474% → 4%
Q1 12:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
96.1%
Danny Etling pass complete to Raheem Mostert for 9 yds to the Prdue 34Similar
Q1 11:45
2ND & 1
OWN 34
0
96.0%
Raheem Mostert run for no gain to the Prdue 34Similar
Q1 11:20
3RD & 1
OWN 34
-10
96.0%
PURDUE Penalty, Offensive Holding (Robert Kugler) to the Prdue 24Similar
Q1 11:00
3RD & 11
OWN 24
+7
96.0%
Danny Etling pass complete to Cameron Posey for 7 yds to the Prdue 31Similar
Q1 10:13
4TH & 4
OWN 31
0
95.9%
Thomas Meadows punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Cody Riggs at the NDame 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 3MISSED FG
9 plays · 39 yds · 3:1096% → 95%
Q1 10:00
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+11
95.9%
Cam McDaniel run for 11 yds to the NDame 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:50
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+7
95.9%
Everett Golson run for 7 yds to the NDame 46Similar
Q1 9:33
2ND & 3
OWN 46
+8
95.9%
Golson, Everett pass incomplete to Fuller, William, PENALTY PURDUE pass interference (Brown, Anthony) 8 yards to the PURDUE46, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN NOTREDAME. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:10
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+9
95.9%
Everett Golson pass complete to William Fuller for 9 yds to the Prdue 37Similar
Q1 9:00
2ND & 1
OPP 37
+1
95.8%
Cam McDaniel run for 1 yd to the Prdue 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:30
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+5
95.8%
Everett Golson pass complete to Ben Koyack for 5 yds to the Prdue 31Similar
Q1 8:10
2ND & 5
OPP 31
+3
95.7%
Cam McDaniel run for 3 yds to the Prdue 28Similar
Q1 7:55
3RD & 2
OPP 28
-5
95.7%
Everett Golson pass complete to Amir Carlisle for a loss of 5 yards to the Prdue 33Similar
Q1 6:50
4TH & 7
OPP 33
+50
95.4%
Kyle Brindza 50 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 4TD
10 plays · 61 yds · 4:555% → 7%
Q1 6:45
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+10
95.3%
Danny Etling pass complete to Cameron Posey for 10 yds to the Prdue 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:15
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+6
95.2%
Danny Etling pass complete to Akeem Hunt for 6 yds to the Prdue 49Similar
Q1 6:00
2ND & 4
OWN 49
+4
95.1%
Danny Etling pass complete to Justin Sinz for 4 yds to the NDame 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:10
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+3
94.9%
Raheem Mostert run for 3 yds to the NDame 44Similar
Q1 4:35
2ND & 7
OPP 44
+5
94.8%
Raheem Mostert run for 5 yds to the NDame 39Similar
Q1 4:00
3RD & 2
OPP 39
+28
94.7%
Danny Etling pass complete to Danny Anthrop for 28 yds to the NDame 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:20
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+3
94.4%
Raheem Mostert run for 3 yds to the NDame 8Similar
Q1 2:45
2ND & 7
OPP 8
+6
94.3%
Raheem Mostert run for 6 yds to the NDame 2Similar
Q1 2:10
3RD & 1
OPP 2
-5
94.2%
PURDUE Penalty, False Start (Jason King) to the NDame 7Similar
Q1 1:50
3RD & 6
OPP 7
+7
92.9%
Danny Etling pass complete to Brandon Cottom for 7 yds for a TD, (Paul Griggs KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 5FG
15 plays · 77 yds · 4:1893% → 92%
Q1 1:15
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+6
93.3%
Everett Golson pass complete to C.J. Prosise for 6 yds to the NDame 28Similar
Q1 1:00
2ND & 4
OWN 28
+6
93.3%
Everett Golson pass complete to Ben Koyack for 6 yds to the NDame 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:30
1ST & 10
OWN 34
-5
93.2%
NOTRE DAME Penalty, False Start (Greg Bryant) to the NDame 29Similar
Q1 0:01
1ST & 15
OWN 29
+17
93.0%
Everett Golson pass complete to Greg Bryant for 17 yds to the NDame 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+16
93.3%
Greg Bryant run for 16 yds to the Prdue 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:35
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
93.3%
Everett Golson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:00
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+7
93.1%
Greg Bryant run for 7 yds to the Prdue 31Similar
Q2 13:45
3RD & 3
OPP 31
+4
93.0%
Everett Golson pass complete to William Fuller for 4 yds to the Prdue 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:33
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+14
93.1%
Golson, Everett pass incomplete, PENALTY PURDUE personal foul 14 yards to the PURDUE14, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN NOTREDAME. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:27
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+11
93.0%
Everett Golson run for 11 yds to the Prdue 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:05
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
93.0%
Greg Bryant run for 2 yds to the Prdue 1Similar
Q2 12:45
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
-1
92.9%
Greg Bryant run for a loss of 1 yard to the Prdue 2Similar
Q2 12:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
0
92.4%
Everett Golson pass incomplete to Chris Brown, broken up by Taylor RichardsSimilar
Q2 11:57
4TH & GOAL
OPP 2
+19
92.4%
Kyle Brindza 19 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 6FUMBLE
9 plays · 63 yds · 3:228% → 10%
Q2 11:40
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+8
92.2%
Akeem Hunt run for 8 yds to the Prdue 41Similar
Q2 11:00
2ND & 2
OWN 41
0
91.6%
Akeem Hunt run for no gain to the Prdue 41Similar
Q2 10:25
3RD & 2
OWN 41
+8
91.4%
Raheem Mostert run for 8 yds to the Prdue 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:00
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+7
91.1%
Danny Etling pass complete to Justin Sinz for 7 yds to the NDame 44Similar
Q2 9:15
2ND & 3
OPP 44
+20
90.6%
Danny Etling run for 5 yds to the NDame 39 for a 1ST down NOTRE DAME Penalty, Personal Foul (Max Redfield) to the NDame 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:04
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+11
90.3%
Akeem Hunt run for 11 yds to the NDame 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:45
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+4
90.1%
Danny Etling pass complete to Cameron Posey for 4 yds to the NDame 9Similar
Q2 8:18
2ND & 6
OPP 9
+5
89.9%
Akeem Hunt run for 5 yds to the NDame 4 Akeem Hunt fumbled, recovered by NDameSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 7PUNT
6 plays · -2 yds · 1:4191% → 90%
Q2 8:18
1ST & 10
OWN 4
-2
91.0%
NOTRE DAME Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Elijah Shumate) to the NDame 2Similar
Q2 8:18
1ST & 10
OWN 2
-1
91.0%
NOTRE DAME Penalty, False Start (Steve Elmer) to the NDame 1Similar
Q2 8:00
1ST & 11
OWN 1
+1
91.1%
Everett Golson run for 1 yd to the NDame 2Similar
Q2 7:30
2ND & 10
OWN 2
0
90.9%
Tarean Folston run for no gain to the NDame 2Similar
Q2 7:00
3RD & 10
OWN 2
0
90.4%
Everett Golson pass incomplete to William Fuller, broken up by Antoine LewisSimilar
Q2 6:37
4TH & 10
OWN 2
+17
90.0%
Kyle Brindza punt for 52 yds , Frankie Williams returns for 17 yds to the NDame 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 8DOWNS
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:1910% → 11%
Q2 6:35
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
89.6%
Danny Etling pass incomplete to Danny AnthropSimilar
Q2 6:00
2ND & 10
OPP 37
+6
89.4%
Danny Etling pass complete to Dolapo Macarthy for 6 yds to the NDame 31Similar
Q2 5:45
3RD & 4
OPP 31
+3
89.2%
Raheem Mostert run for 3 yds to the NDame 28Similar
Q2 5:16
4TH & 1
OPP 28
0
89.5%
Raheem Mostert run for no gain to the NDame 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 9FUMBLE
4 plays · -2 yds · 1:1390% → 89%
Q2 5:00
1ST & 10
OWN 28
-2
90.2%
Tarean Folston run for a loss of 2 yards to the NDame 26Similar
Q2 4:45
2ND & 12
OWN 26
-5
89.9%
NOTRE DAME Penalty, Offensive Offside (William Fuller) to the NDame 21Similar
Q2 4:00
2ND & 17
OWN 21
-5
89.5%
Everett Golson sacked by Jalani Phillips for a loss of 5 yards to the NDame 16Similar
Q2 3:47
3RD & 22
OWN 16
+10
89.0%
Everett Golson pass complete to Ben Koyack for 10 yds Ben Koyack fumbled, forced by Antoine Lewis, recovered by Prdue Jalani PhillipsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 10TD
3 plays · 26 yds · 0:4312% → 18%
Q2 3:43
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
87.8%
Danny Etling pass incomplete to DeAngelo YanceySimilar
Q2 3:35
2ND & 10
OPP 26
+7
87.8%
Danny Etling pass complete to Justin Sinz for 7 yds to the NDame 19Similar
Q2 3:00
3RD & 3
OPP 19
+19
82.4%
Danny Etling pass complete to DeAngelo Yancey for 19 yds for a TD, (Paul Griggs KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 11TD
10 plays · 70 yds · 2:3284% → 89%
Q2 2:45
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+8
84.3%
Everett Golson run for 8 yds to the NDame 38Similar
Q2 2:20
2ND & 2
OWN 38
+7
85.2%
Everett Golson pass complete to William Fuller for 7 yds to the NDame 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:51
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
84.7%
Everett Golson pass incomplete to Chris BrownSimilar
Q2 1:45
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+5
83.9%
Cam McDaniel run for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 1:00
3RD & 5
50
+6
84.2%
Everett Golson pass complete to Ben Koyack for 6 yds to the Prdue 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:45
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+32
84.2%
Everett Golson pass complete to Corey Robinson for 32 yds to the Prdue 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:21
1ST & 10
OPP 12
-3
84.7%
Everett Golson sacked by Anthony Brown for a loss of 3 yards to the Prdue 15Similar
Q2 0:13
2ND & 13
OPP 15
+15
89.3%
Everett Golson run for 15 yds for a TD, (Kyle Brindza KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 12END OF HALF
2 plays · -1 yds · 0:0013% → 13%
Q2 0:01
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-1
86.9%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Prdue 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 13PUNT
9 plays · 19 yds · 3:0512% → 13%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
87.7%
Danny Etling pass complete to Raheem Mostert for 15 yds to the Prdue 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:30
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+4
86.6%
Raheem Mostert run for 4 yds to the Prdue 44Similar
Q3 14:00
2ND & 6
OWN 44
+5
85.9%
Danny Etling run for 5 yds to the Prdue 49Similar
Q3 13:20
3RD & 1
OWN 49
+2
85.4%
Raheem Mostert run for 2 yds to the NDame 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:45
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-7
84.9%
Danny Etling sacked by Jarron Jones and Isaac Rochell for a loss of 7 yards to the Prdue 44Similar
Q3 12:10
2ND & 17
OWN 44
0
85.9%
Danny Etling pass incomplete to Gabe HolmesSimilar
Q3 11:58
3RD & 17
OWN 44
0
86.2%
Danny Etling pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 11:50
4TH & 17
OWN 44
0
86.9%
Thomas Meadows punt for 43 yds, downed at the NDame 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 14PUNT
10 plays · 25 yds · 3:4087% → 84%
Q3 11:45
1ST & 10
OWN 13
0
86.5%
Everett Golson pass incomplete to Chris BrownSimilar
Q3 11:30
2ND & 10
OWN 13
+5
86.3%
Everett Golson run for 5 yds to the NDame 18Similar
Q3 11:00
3RD & 5
OWN 18
+17
85.5%
Everett Golson pass complete to William Fuller for 17 yds to the NDame 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:30
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
86.2%
Tarean Folston run for 4 yds to the NDame 39Similar
Q3 10:00
2ND & 6
OWN 39
0
87.1%
Everett Golson pass incomplete to William FullerSimilar
Q3 9:30
3RD & 6
OWN 39
+7
85.9%
Everett Golson pass complete to C.J. Prosise for 7 yds to the NDame 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:20
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
87.0%
Everett Golson pass incomplete to C.J. ProsiseSimilar
Q3 9:09
2ND & 10
OWN 46
-3
86.4%
Tarean Folston run for a loss of 3 yards to the NDame 43Similar
Q3 8:45
3RD & 13
OWN 43
-5
85.0%
Everett Golson sacked by Anthony Brown and Danny Ezechukwu for a loss of 5 yards to the NDame 38Similar
Q3 8:05
4TH & 18
OWN 38
0
83.8%
Kyle Brindza punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Danny Anthrop at the Prdue 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 15PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:3916% → 16%
Q3 7:40
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+3
83.7%
Raheem Mostert run for 3 yds to the Prdue 20Similar
Q3 7:20
2ND & 7
OWN 20
+4
83.7%
Raheem Mostert run for 4 yds to the Prdue 24Similar
Q3 6:40
3RD & 3
OWN 24
0
83.6%
Raheem Mostert run for no gain to the Prdue 24Similar
Q3 6:01
4TH & 3
OWN 24
0
84.2%
Thomas Meadows punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Cody Riggs at the NDame 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 16TD
7 plays · 62 yds · 1:4085% → 93%
Q3 5:45
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+3
84.6%
Greg Bryant run for 3 yds to the NDame 41Similar
Q3 5:25
2ND & 7
OWN 41
0
84.9%
Everett Golson pass incomplete to Corey RobinsonSimilar
Q3 5:15
3RD & 7
OWN 41
+25
83.6%
Everett Golson pass complete to C.J. Prosise for 25 yds to the Prdue 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:00
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+2
85.9%
Greg Bryant run for 2 yds to the Prdue 32Similar
Q3 4:45
2ND & 8
OPP 32
0
85.7%
Everett Golson pass incomplete to C.J. ProsiseSimilar
Q3 4:30
3RD & 8
OPP 32
+17
84.7%
Everett Golson pass complete to Greg Bryant for 17 yds to the Prdue 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:05
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+15
92.5%
Everett Golson pass complete to Corey Robinson for 15 yds for a TD, (Kyle Brindza KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 17DOWNS
8 plays · 41 yds · 2:179% → 10%
Q3 4:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+24
91.1%
Danny Etling pass complete to Danny Anthrop for 24 yds to the Prdue 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:30
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+9
89.7%
Danny Etling pass complete to Gabe Holmes for 9 yds to the NDame 42Similar
Q3 3:00
2ND & 1
OPP 42
+3
89.1%
Danny Etling pass complete to Justin Sinz for 3 yds to the NDame 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:30
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+5
89.3%
Danny Etling pass complete to Akeem Hunt for 5 yds to the NDame 34Similar
Q3 1:55
2ND & 5
OPP 34
0
88.2%
Danny Etling pass incomplete to Gabe HolmesSimilar
Q3 1:50
3RD & 5
OPP 34
0
89.3%
Danny Etling pass incomplete to DeAngelo YanceySimilar
Q3 1:43
4TH & 5
OPP 34
0
90.2%
Danny Etling pass incomplete to Gabe HolmesSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 18PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 1:1992% → 91%
Q3 1:40
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
91.6%
Cam McDaniel run for 4 yds to the NDame 39Similar
Q3 1:00
2ND & 6
OWN 39
-1
92.2%
Cam McDaniel run for a loss of 1 yard to the NDame 38Similar
Q3 0:30
3RD & 7
OWN 38
0
91.5%
Everett Golson pass incomplete to Corey RobinsonSimilar
Q3 0:21
4TH & 7
OWN 38
0
91.3%
Kyle Brindza punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Danny Anthrop at the Prdue 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 19PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:229% → 8%
Q3 0:01
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+6
91.5%
Raheem Mostert run for 6 yds to the Prdue 22Similar
Q4 14:55
2ND & 4
OWN 22
0
91.1%
Danny Etling pass incomplete to Dolapo MacarthySimilar
Q4 14:53
3RD & 4
OWN 22
-5
92.0%
PURDUE Penalty, Delay of Game (Danny Etling) to the Prdue 17Similar
Q4 14:49
3RD & 9
OWN 17
0
92.2%
Danny Etling pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:39
4TH & 9
OWN 17
-5
92.5%
Thomas Meadows punt for 48 yds , Cody Riggs returns for a loss of 5 yards to the NDame 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 20FG
11 plays · 39 yds · 4:4491% → 96%
Q4 14:15
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+11
91.2%
Everett Golson pass complete to Chris Brown for 11 yds to the NDame 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:00
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+11
91.9%
Everett Golson run for 11 yds to the Prdue 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:30
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+1
92.2%
Tarean Folston run for 1 yd to the Prdue 47Similar
Q4 12:50
2ND & 9
OPP 47
+10
92.3%
Everett Golson pass complete to Tarean Folston for 10 yds to the Prdue 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:30
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+6
92.4%
Tarean Folston run for 6 yds to the Prdue 31Similar
Q4 11:50
2ND & 4
OPP 31
+5
92.5%
Everett Golson pass complete to Corey Robinson for 5 yds to the Prdue 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:00
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+5
92.3%
Everett Golson run for 5 yds to the Prdue 21Similar
Q4 10:35
2ND & 5
OPP 21
-5
92.2%
NOTRE DAME Penalty, Illegal Formation (-5 Yards) to the Prdue 26Similar
Q4 9:45
2ND & 10
OPP 26
-5
92.1%
Everett Golson sacked by Gelen Robinson for a loss of 5 yards to the Prdue 31Similar
Q4 9:36
3RD & 15
OPP 31
0
91.3%
Everett Golson pass incomplete to Ben KoyackSimilar
Q4 9:31
4TH & 15
OPP 31
+48
95.5%
Kyle Brindza 48 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 21INT
4 plays · 12 yds · 0:415% → 6%
Q4 9:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
94.6%
Danny Etling pass complete to Raheem Mostert for 6 yds to the Prdue 31Similar
Q4 8:30
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+6
94.0%
Danny Etling pass complete to Danny Anthrop for 6 yds to the Prdue 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:19
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
94.1%
Danny Etling pass intercepted Devin Butler return for no gain to the Prdue 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 22FG
12 plays · 27 yds · 2:4397% → 99%
Q4 8:13
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
96.6%
Everett Golson pass incomplete to William Fuller, broken up by Antoine LewisSimilar
Q4 8:05
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+13
96.6%
Everett Golson pass complete to C.J. Prosise for 13 yds to the Prdue 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:39
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
96.7%
Everett Golson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 7:15
2ND & 10
OPP 36
+7
97.3%
Everett Golson run for 7 yds to the Prdue 29Similar
Q4 7:05
3RD & 3
OPP 29
+5
97.2%
Everett Golson pass complete to Ben Koyack for 5 yds to the Prdue 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:40
1ST & 10
OPP 24
-6
97.4%
Everett Golson run for 4 yds to the Prdue 20 NOTRE DAME Penalty, Offensive Holding (Chris Brown) to the Prdue 30Similar
Q4 6:15
1ST & 16
OPP 30
0
97.5%
Everett Golson pass incomplete to Corey RobinsonSimilar
Q4 6:05
2ND & 16
OPP 30
+8
97.6%
Everett Golson pass complete to William Fuller for 8 yds to the Prdue 22Similar
Q4 5:35
3RD & 8
OPP 22
0
97.6%
Everett Golson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:30
4TH & 8
OPP 22
+39
98.7%
Kyle Brindza 39 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 23INT
14 plays · 49 yds · 3:294% → 3%
Q4 5:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
96.5%
Danny Etling pass complete to Danny Anthrop for 3 yds to the Prdue 28Similar
Q4 4:45
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+2
96.8%
Danny Etling pass complete to Akeem Hunt for 2 yds to the Prdue 30Similar
Q4 4:30
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
96.9%
Danny Etling pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:15
4TH & 5
OWN 30
+7
97.3%
Danny Etling pass complete to Cameron Posey for 7 yds to the Prdue 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+5
96.9%
Danny Etling pass complete to Justin Sinz for 5 yds to the Prdue 42Similar
Q4 3:35
2ND & 5
OWN 42
+29
96.9%
Danny Etling pass complete to DeAngelo Yancey for 29 yds to the NDame 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:20
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+5
96.0%
Danny Etling pass complete to Gabe Holmes for 5 yds to the NDame 24Similar
Q4 3:00
2ND & 5
OPP 24
+3
96.0%
Danny Etling pass complete to Akeem Hunt for 3 yds to the NDame 21Similar
Q4 2:15
3RD & 2
OPP 21
+8
96.2%
Akeem Hunt run for 8 yds to the NDame 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:00
1ST & 10
OPP 13
0
96.0%
Danny Etling pass incomplete to Cameron PoseySimilar
Q4 1:52
2ND & 10
OPP 13
-13
96.0%
Danny Etling sacked by Jaylon Smith for a loss of 13 yards to the NDame 26Similar
Q4 1:46
3RD & 23
OPP 26
0
97.2%
Danny Etling pass intercepted Joe Schmidt return for no gain to the NDame 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 24PUNT
6 plays · 9 yds · 1:0499% → 99%
Q4 1:40
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+3
99.2%
Cam McDaniel run for 3 yds to the NDame 8Similar
Q4 1:20
2ND & 7
OWN 8
+4
99.2%
Cam McDaniel run for 4 yds to the NDame 12Similar
Q4 0:50
3RD & 3
OWN 12
+2
99.3%
Cam McDaniel run for 2 yds to the NDame 14Similar
Q4 0:36
4TH & 1
OWN 14
+7
99.4%
Kyle Brindza punt for 50 yds , Danny Anthrop returns for 7 yds to the Prdue 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 25END OF GAME
3 plays · -13 yds · 0:301% → 1%
Q4 0:30
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-2
99.2%
Danny Etling pass complete to Akeem Hunt for a loss of 2 yards to the Prdue 41Similar
Q4 0:03
2ND & 12
OWN 41
+6
99.2%
Danny Etling run for 6 yds to the Prdue 47Similar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 6
OWN 47
-17
99.2%
Danny Etling sacked by Kolin Hill and Romeo Okwara for a loss of 17 yards to the Prdue 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 4:05
Everett Golson pass complete to Corey Robinson for 15 yds for a TD, (Kyle Brindza KICK)
+7.8
TD · Q2 3:00
Danny Etling pass complete to DeAngelo Yancey for 19 yds for a TD, (Paul Griggs KICK)
-5.5
TD · Q2 0:13
Everett Golson run for 15 yds for a TD, (Kyle Brindza KICK)
+4.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com