San Diego State

Profile vs. FBS, 2024

Farther out is better on every spoke. Dashed ring: the FBS median.

• EPA per play

  Expected points added on an average snap: how much each play moved the scoring odds.
  Offense+0.0728th
  Defense+0.1823rd
• Success rate

  Share of snaps that stayed on schedule: half the yards needed on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of them on 3rd or 4th.
  Offense37.4%11th
  Defense46.1%16th
• Explosiveness

  Average EPA on the successful snaps: how big the good plays were.
  Offense+1.3068th
  Defense+1.2071st
• Rushing EPA

  EPA per designed run.
  Offense+0.0742nd
  Defense+0.1717th
• Passing EPA

  EPA per pass play.
  Offense+0.0926th
  Defense+0.2226th
• Standard downs

  Success rate on downs where either a run or a pass makes sense, like 1st and 10 or 3rd and 2.
  Offense43.8%16th
  Defense49.4%29th
• Passing downs

  Success rate on downs that all but force a pass, like 2nd and 8 or longer, or 3rd and 5 or longer.
  Offense26.0%15th
  Defense37.8%6th
• Line yards

  Rushing yards per carry credited to the offensive line, weighting the first few yards most.
  Offense3.0043rd
  Defense3.493rd
• Stuff rate

  Share of runs stopped at or behind the line of scrimmage.
  Offense15.2%75th
  Defense11.6%2nd
• Havoc

  Share of snaps with a tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception or pass breakup.
  Offense18.4%18th
  Defense12.8%9th

Percentiles among the 134 FBS teams this season, where higher is better for the offense and the defense alike (a defense's numbers are what it allowed). The line in each bar is the FBS median. Garbage time excluded. Source: CollegeFootballData.

Drives vs. expectation, 2024

Every snap has an expected-points value: what a drive from that spot, down and distance is worth on average. A drive over expected beat its starting spot; defense counts what San Diego State allowed, so lower is better. The adjusted number fits every team against the opponents it actually played, so it leans toward average early in a season. Ranks are among FBS teams.

Game by game

1. W
   ETAM
2. L
   ORST
3. L
   CAL
4. L
   CMU
5. W
   HAW
6. W
   WYO
7. L
   WSU
8. L
   BOIS
9. L
   UNM
10. L
    UNLV
11. L
    USU
12. L
    AF

Bars above the line: better than expected for San Diego State.

Players, 2024

1. Danny O'NeilQB318 plays · +0.113 pts/play · 110th of 232 QBs
   0.67WAR0.13 to 1.26
2. Marquez CooperRB231 plays · +0.126 pts/play · 16th of 373 RBs
   0.54WAR0.39 to 0.69
3. Tyler PastulaP46 plays · +0.235 pts/play · 3rd of 106 punters
   0.20WAR0.10 to 0.30
4. Louis Brown IVWR37 plays · +0.260 pts/play · 56th of 452 WRs
   0.18WAR0.09 to 0.26
5. Gabriel PlascenciaPK12 plays · +0.375 pts/play · 55th of 114 kickers
   0.08WAR0.06 to 0.11
6. Ja'Shaun PokeWR45 plays · +0.079 pts/play · 202nd of 452 WRs
   0.07WAR−0.01 to 0.14
7. Jude WolfeTE12 plays · +0.152 pts/play · 94th of 221 TEs
   0.03WAR0.01 to 0.06
8. Cam DavisRB12 plays · +0.100 pts/play · 315th of 373 RBs
   0.02WAR0.01 to 0.03

By position group, against FBS

Linemen and defenders are valued as units, in points per game against the median FBS unit, because play-by-play doesn't say who was on the field. Players are valued against a replacement-level backup, so the two aren't added together.

Wins above replacement credits each play's expected points to the players involved, adjusted for the opponent, and compares San Diego State's players with a typical backup; 53 points make a win. Only snaps while the game was in doubt count, so a starter on a team that blows opponents out plays fewer of them: read value per play beside WAR. The line under each player (or the range on a phone) is the 90% interval. Ranks are among FBS teams and players. How this works

What it had and what it did, 2024

• Roster talent

  247Sports' talent composite: the recruiting ratings of every player on the roster, transfers included.
  60960976th of 131Roster talent: 609, 76th of 131 in FBS
• Recruiting

  Average 247Sports class score over this season's class and the three before it.
  16816870th of 131Recruiting: 168, 70th of 131 in FBS
• Returning production

  Share of last season's production (expected points added) by players still on the roster.
  38%38%80th of 130Returning production: 38%, 80th of 130 in FBS
• SP+ rating

  The result: Bill Connelly's opponent-adjusted rating, points per game better than an average FBS team.
  −15.4−15.4116th of 131SP+ rating: −15.4, 116th of 131 in FBS

Ranks and bars among the 131 FBS teams with a talent rating this season, best first; the line in each bar is the FBS median.

Talent conversion

Conversion by season

Fourth-down calls vs. the numbers, 2024

Each real fourth down is valued three ways (go for it, kick, punt) from the score, clock and field position before the snap, using league-wide odds rather than San Diego State's own. A call that differs gives up the gap to the best option; gaps under one point are close calls, and the 4 clear-cut ones account for 0.13 of the 0.18 expected wins. The model sees the situation, not the injury report, so a call it disagrees with can still be right. Ranks are among FBS teams; 1st gave up the least.

Costliest calls against the numbers

1. at WYOQ4 0:21 4th & 7 at WYO 36, up 3Punted; the numbers favored a field goal−6.9 pts
2. vs UNMQ4 8:11 4th & 5 at UNM 39, down 5Punted; the numbers favored going for it−4.3 pts
3. at USUQ2 12:49 4th & 1 at SDSU 47, up 3Punted; the numbers favored going for it−1.2 pts
4. vs ORSTQ4 7:34 4th & 18 at SDSU 42, down 14Went for it; the numbers favored punting−1.1 pts
5. at WYOQ3 6:22 4th & 4 at WYO 48, tiedPunted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.9 pts
6. vs WSUQ3 8:11 4th & 2 at SDSU 14, down 2Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.8 pts
7. vs UNMQ4 3:11 4th & 10 at SDSU 17, down 5Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.6 pts
8. vs WSUQ3 12:49 4th & 3 at SDSU 44, down 2Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.6 pts

Record vs. expectation, 2024

109th of 134 FBS teams at beating the model's pregame expectations

Expected wins adds up San Diego State's chance of winning each game as the model saw it at kickoff - a 70% favorite counts 0.7.

1. W

   ETAM
2. L

   ORST
3. L

   CAL
4. L

   CMU
5. W

   HAW
6. W

   WYO
7. L

   WSU
8. L

   BOIS
9. L

   UNM
10. L

    UNLV
11. L

    USU
12. L

    AF

What moved it, 2024

Every game starts at San Diego State's pregame chance; everything after that is the field. The model's own breakdown of each game's final play splits the on-field part by what drove it, and the parts add up exactly. How it works →

• Scoreboard−0.76
• Possession & field position+0.01
• Clock−0.07
• Timeouts+0.03
• Less the pregame edge, counted before kickoff+0.39

Game by game

• ETAMW 45-14 vs ETAM71% → 100%Before kickoff +21 · On the field +29: Scoreboard +30
• ORSTL 0-21 vs ORST42% → 1%Before kickoff −8 · On the field −41: Scoreboard −47, Clock −1
• CALL 10-31 at CAL11% → 1%Before kickoff −39 · On the field −10: Scoreboard −15
• CMUL 21-22 at CMU42% → 19%Before kickoff −8 · On the field −24: Scoreboard −12, Timeouts −4
• HAWW 27-24 vs HAW50% → 89%Before kickoff 0 · On the field +40: Scoreboard +25, Possession & field position +3
• WYOW 27-24 at WYO50% → 87%Before kickoff 0 · On the field +37: Scoreboard +40, Timeouts +3
• WSUL 26-29 vs WSU15% → 5%Before kickoff −35 · On the field −10: Scoreboard −26, Clock −2
• BOISL 24-56 at BOIS6% → 0%Before kickoff −44 · On the field −6: Scoreboard −9
• UNML 16-21 vs UNM64% → 4%Before kickoff +14 · On the field −60: Scoreboard −54, Clock −3
• UNLVL 20-41 at UNLV10% → 0%Before kickoff −40 · On the field −10: Scoreboard −15
• USUL 20-41 at USU40% → 97%Before kickoff −10 · On the field +57: Scoreboard +55, Clock +2
• AFL 20-31 vs AF44% → 2%Before kickoff −6 · On the field −42: Scoreboard −48, Clock −3

Points of win probability, from San Diego State's side.

Closest call

TOL 14-17 SDSU (2022) - San Diego State dropped to a 13.4% win probability before pulling it out.