San Diego State

Profile vs. FBS, 2014

Farther out is better on every spoke. Dashed ring: the FBS median.

• EPA per play

  Expected points added on an average snap: how much each play moved the scoring odds.
  Offense+0.1235th
  Defense+0.1073rd
• Success rate

  Share of snaps that stayed on schedule: half the yards needed on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of them on 3rd or 4th.
  Offense44.1%57th
  Defense40.0%69th
• Explosiveness

  Average EPA on the successful snaps: how big the good plays were.
  Offense+1.0810th
  Defense+1.1669th
• Rushing EPA

  EPA per designed run.
  Offense+0.1982nd
  Defense+0.1052nd
• Passing EPA

  EPA per pass play.
  Offense+0.0513th
  Defense+0.1280th
• Standard downs

  Success rate on downs where either a run or a pass makes sense, like 1st and 10 or 3rd and 2.
  Offense48.9%61st
  Defense43.8%82nd
• Passing downs

  Success rate on downs that all but force a pass, like 2nd and 8 or longer, or 3rd and 5 or longer.
  Offense32.9%43rd
  Defense32.1%56th
• Line yards

  Rushing yards per carry credited to the offensive line, weighting the first few yards most.
  Offense3.4296th
  Defense2.9539th
• Stuff rate

  Share of runs stopped at or behind the line of scrimmage.
  Offense14.3%92nd
  Defense18.1%28th
• Havoc

  Share of snaps with a tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception or pass breakup.
  Offense2.6%18th
  Defense1.6%25th

Percentiles among the 128 FBS teams this season, where higher is better for the offense and the defense alike (a defense's numbers are what it allowed). The line in each bar is the FBS median. Garbage time excluded. Source: CollegeFootballData.

Drives vs. expectation, 2014

Every snap has an expected-points value: what a drive from that spot, down and distance is worth on average. A drive over expected beat its starting spot; defense counts what San Diego State allowed, so lower is better. The adjusted number fits every team against the opponents it actually played, so it leans toward average early in a season. Ranks are among FBS teams.

Game by game

1. W
   NAU
2. L
   UNC
3. L
   ORST
4. W
   UNLV
5. L
   FRES
6. W
   UNM
7. W
   HAW
8. L
   NEV
9. W
   IDHO
10. L
    BOIS
11. W
    AF
12. W
    SJSU
13. L
    NAVY

Bars above the line: better than expected for San Diego State.

Players, 2014

1. Quinn KaehlerQB224 plays · +0.198 pts/play · 116th of 199 QBs
   0.83WAR0.43 to 1.23
2. Donnel PumphreyRB227 plays · +0.126 pts/play · 14th of 350 RBs
   0.54WAR0.31 to 0.76
3. Chase PriceRB116 plays · +0.087 pts/play · 126th of 350 RBs
   0.19WAR0.10 to 0.27
4. Donny HagemanPK19 plays · +0.463 pts/play · 16th of 114 kickers
   0.16WAR0.11 to 0.22
5. Lloyd MillsWR39 plays · +0.074 pts/play · 329th of 469 WRs
   0.05WAR0.01 to 0.10
6. Eric JudgeWR20 plays · +0.143 pts/play · 329th of 469 WRs
   0.05WAR0.03 to 0.08
7. Jemond HazelyWR11 plays · +0.143 pts/play · 391st of 469 WRs
   0.03WAR0.02 to 0.04
8. Mikah HolderWR7 plays · +0.163 pts/play · 402nd of 469 WRs
   0.02WAR0.01 to 0.03

By position group, against FBS

Linemen and defenders are valued as units, in points per game against the median FBS unit, because play-by-play doesn't say who was on the field. Players are valued against a replacement-level backup, so the two aren't added together.

Wins above replacement credits each play's expected points to the players involved, adjusted for the opponent, and compares San Diego State's players with a typical backup; 53 points make a win. Only snaps while the game was in doubt count, so a starter on a team that blows opponents out plays fewer of them: read value per play beside WAR. The line under each player (or the range on a phone) is the 90% interval. Ranks are among FBS teams and players. How this works

Fourth-down calls vs. the numbers, 2014

Each real fourth down is valued three ways (go for it, kick, punt) from the score, clock and field position before the snap, using league-wide odds rather than San Diego State's own. A call that differs gives up the gap to the best option; gaps under one point are close calls, and the 5 clear-cut ones account for 0.12 of the 0.21 expected wins. The model sees the situation, not the injury report, so a call it disagrees with can still be right. Ranks are among FBS teams; 1st gave up the least.

Costliest calls against the numbers

1. at BOISQ3 2:26 4th & 1 at SDSU 29, up 6Punted; the numbers favored going for it−4.0 pts
2. vs HAWQ4 6:33 4th & 1 at HAW 6, up 7Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it−3.5 pts
3. vs IDHOQ4 15:00 4th & 1 at SDSU 41, up 7Punted; the numbers favored going for it−1.7 pts
4. at UNMQ2 7:52 4th & 1 at SDSU 45, up 3Punted; the numbers favored going for it−1.4 pts
5. vs HAWQ2 1:12 4th & 1 at SDSU 40, up 10Punted; the numbers favored going for it−1.1 pts
6. vs UNLVQ4 13:37 4th & 1 at UNLV 7, up 18Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−1.0 pts
7. vs AFQ3 8:13 4th & 4 at AF 4, down 1Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.9 pts
8. at UNMQ2 1:50 4th & 4 at UNM 45, up 3Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.9 pts

Record vs. expectation, 2014

90th of 128 FBS teams at beating the model's pregame expectations

Expected wins adds up San Diego State's chance of winning each game as the model saw it at kickoff - a 70% favorite counts 0.7.

1. W

   NAU
2. L

   UNC
3. L

   ORST
4. W

   UNLV
5. L

   FRES
6. W

   UNM
7. W

   HAW
8. L

   NEV
9. W

   IDHO
10. L

    BOIS
11. W

    AF
12. W

    SJSU
13. L

    NAVY

What moved it, 2014

Every game starts at San Diego State's pregame chance; everything after that is the field. The model's own breakdown of each game's final play splits the on-field part by what drove it, and the parts add up exactly. How it works →

• Scoreboard−0.36
• Possession & field position+0.02
• Clock−0.01
• Timeouts+0.01
• Less the pregame edge, counted before kickoff−0.32

Game by game

• NAUW 38-7 vs NAU89% → 100%Before kickoff +39 · On the field +11: Scoreboard +14
• UNCL 27-31 at UNC17% → 3%Before kickoff −33 · On the field −15: Scoreboard −22, Timeouts −1
• ORSTL 7-28 at ORST27% → 0%Before kickoff −23 · On the field −26: Scoreboard −30
• UNLVW 34-17 vs UNLV88% → 99%Before kickoff +38 · On the field +11: Scoreboard +16
• FRESL 13-24 at FRES60% → 3%Before kickoff +10 · On the field −56: Scoreboard −43, Clock −1
• UNMW 24-14 at UNM67% → 96%Before kickoff +17 · On the field +30: Scoreboard +40, Clock +2
• HAWW 20-10 vs HAW80% → 97%Before kickoff +30 · On the field +17: Scoreboard +23, Timeouts +1
• NEVL 14-30 at NEV36% → 1%Before kickoff −14 · On the field −35: Scoreboard −35, Timeouts −1
• IDHOW 35-21 vs IDHO92% → 99%Before kickoff +42 · On the field +7: Scoreboard +13, Timeouts +1
• BOISL 29-38 at BOIS16% → 4%Before kickoff −34 · On the field −12: Scoreboard −20, Timeouts −1
• AFW 30-14 vs AF59% → 99%Before kickoff +9 · On the field +40: Scoreboard +38, Timeouts +1
• SJSUW 38-7 vs SJSU83% → 100%Before kickoff +33 · On the field +17: Scoreboard +20
• NAVYL 16-17 vs NAVY63% → 8%Before kickoff +13 · On the field −55: Scoreboard −52, Clock −4

Points of win probability, from San Diego State's side.

Closest call

TOL 14-17 SDSU (2022) - San Diego State dropped to a 13.4% win probability before pulling it out.