San Diego State

Profile vs. FBS, 2015

Farther out is better on every spoke. Dashed ring: the FBS median.

• EPA per play

  Expected points added on an average snap: how much each play moved the scoring odds.
  Offense+0.1774th
  Defense−0.0697th
• Success rate

  Share of snaps that stayed on schedule: half the yards needed on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of them on 3rd or 4th.
  Offense44.1%59th
  Defense37.1%90th
• Explosiveness

  Average EPA on the successful snaps: how big the good plays were.
  Offense+1.1528th
  Defense+1.1661st
• Rushing EPA

  EPA per designed run.
  Offense+0.1375th
  Defense−0.0791st
• Passing EPA

  EPA per pass play.
  Offense+0.3180th
  Defense−0.0394th
• Standard downs

  Success rate on downs where either a run or a pass makes sense, like 1st and 10 or 3rd and 2.
  Offense48.4%60th
  Defense44.2%72nd
• Passing downs

  Success rate on downs that all but force a pass, like 2nd and 8 or longer, or 3rd and 5 or longer.
  Offense34.3%52nd
  Defense23.6%99th
• Line yards

  Rushing yards per carry credited to the offensive line, weighting the first few yards most.
  Offense3.0169th
  Defense2.5286th
• Stuff rate

  Share of runs stopped at or behind the line of scrimmage.
  Offense17.7%74th
  Defense25.0%90th
• Havoc

  Share of snaps with a tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception or pass breakup.
  Offense2.9%12th
  Defense4.7%99th

Percentiles among the 128 FBS teams this season, where higher is better for the offense and the defense alike (a defense's numbers are what it allowed). The line in each bar is the FBS median. Garbage time excluded. Source: CollegeFootballData.

Drives vs. expectation, 2015

Every snap has an expected-points value: what a drive from that spot, down and distance is worth on average. A drive over expected beat its starting spot; defense counts what San Diego State allowed, so lower is better. The adjusted number fits every team against the opponents it actually played, so it leans toward average early in a season. Ranks are among FBS teams.

Game by game

1. W
   USD
2. L
   CAL
3. L
   USA
4. L
   PSU
5. W
   FRES
6. W
   HAW
7. W
   SJSU
8. W
   USU
9. W
   CSU
10. W
    WYO
11. W
    UNLV
12. W
    NEV
13. W
    AF
14. W
    CIN

Bars above the line: better than expected for San Diego State.

Players, 2015

1. Donnel PumphreyRB285 plays · +0.125 pts/play · 9th of 333 RBs
   0.67WAR0.39 to 0.93
2. Maxwell SmithQB166 plays · +0.192 pts/play · 126th of 205 QBs
   0.60WAR0.33 to 0.86
3. Chase PriceRB149 plays · +0.091 pts/play · 98th of 333 RBs
   0.25WAR0.14 to 0.36
4. Christian ChapmanQB51 plays · +0.242 pts/play · 173rd of 205 QBs
   0.23WAR0.15 to 0.31
5. Tanner BlainP58 plays · +0.204 pts/play · 3rd of 92 punters
   0.22WAR0.10 to 0.34
6. Donny HagemanPK15 plays · +0.463 pts/play · 46th of 115 kickers
   0.13WAR0.09 to 0.18
7. Mikah HolderWR32 plays · +0.163 pts/play · 217th of 411 WRs
   0.10WAR0.06 to 0.14
8. Jemond HazelyWR23 plays · +0.143 pts/play · 298th of 411 WRs
   0.06WAR0.03 to 0.09

By position group, against FBS

Linemen and defenders are valued as units, in points per game against the median FBS unit, because play-by-play doesn't say who was on the field. Players are valued against a replacement-level backup, so the two aren't added together.

Wins above replacement credits each play's expected points to the players involved, adjusted for the opponent, and compares San Diego State's players with a typical backup; 53 points make a win. Only snaps while the game was in doubt count, so a starter on a team that blows opponents out plays fewer of them: read value per play beside WAR. The line under each player (or the range on a phone) is the 90% interval. Ranks are among FBS teams and players. How this works

What it had and what it did, 2015

• Roster talent

  247Sports' talent composite: the recruiting ratings of every player on the roster, transfers included.
  49549570th of 128Roster talent: 495, 70th of 128 in FBS
• Recruiting

  Average 247Sports class score over this season's class and the three before it.
  15515572nd of 128Recruiting: 155, 72nd of 128 in FBS
• Returning production

  Share of last season's production (expected points added) by players still on the roster.
  67%67%58th of 127Returning production: 67%, 58th of 127 in FBS
• SP+ rating

  The result: Bill Connelly's opponent-adjusted rating, points per game better than an average FBS team.
  +8.0+8.047th of 128SP+ rating: +8.0, 47th of 128 in FBS

Ranks and bars among the 128 FBS teams with a talent rating this season, best first; the line in each bar is the FBS median.

Talent conversion

Conversion by season

Fourth-down calls vs. the numbers, 2015

Each real fourth down is valued three ways (go for it, kick, punt) from the score, clock and field position before the snap, using league-wide odds rather than San Diego State's own. A call that differs gives up the gap to the best option; gaps under one point are close calls, and the 7 clear-cut ones account for 0.10 of the 0.20 expected wins. The model sees the situation, not the injury report, so a call it disagrees with can still be right. Ranks are among FBS teams; 1st gave up the least.

Costliest calls against the numbers

1. vs USAQ4 14:51 4th & 2 at SDSU 30, up 3Punted; the numbers favored going for it−1.9 pts
2. at CINQ2 4:59 4th & 2 at SDSU 48, up 14Punted; the numbers favored going for it−1.6 pts
3. vs FRESQ2 6:38 4th & 1 at SDSU 26, tiedPunted; the numbers favored going for it−1.4 pts
4. vs USAQ4 6:53 4th & 4 at USA 23, up 3Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it−1.2 pts
5. vs USAQ3 4:24 4th & 6 at USA 37, tiedKicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it−1.2 pts
6. at CSUQ2 3:22 4th & 3 at CSU 3, down 3Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it−1.2 pts
7. at HAWQ2 7:23 4th & 2 at SDSU 49, up 7Punted; the numbers favored going for it−1.1 pts
8. at SJSUQ3 11:02 4th & 3 at SJSU 8, up 10Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−1.0 pts

Record vs. expectation, 2015

10th of 128 FBS teams at beating the model's pregame expectations

Expected wins adds up San Diego State's chance of winning each game as the model saw it at kickoff - a 70% favorite counts 0.7.

1. W

   USD
2. L

   CAL
3. L

   USA
4. L

   PSU
5. W

   FRES
6. W

   HAW
7. W

   SJSU
8. W

   USU
9. W

   CSU
10. W

    WYO
11. W

    UNLV
12. W

    NEV
13. W

    AF
14. W

    CIN

What moved it, 2015

Every game starts at San Diego State's pregame chance; everything after that is the field. The model's own breakdown of each game's final play splits the on-field part by what drove it, and the parts add up exactly. How it works →

• Scoreboard+2.83
• Possession & field position−0.01
• Clock+0.23
• Timeouts−0.17
• Less the pregame edge, counted before kickoff−0.56

Game by game

• USDW 37-3 vs USD98% → 100%Before kickoff +48 · On the field +2: Scoreboard +3
• CALL 7-35 at CAL22% → 0%Before kickoff −28 · On the field −22: Scoreboard −24
• USAL 27-34 vs USA87% → 16%Before kickoff +37 · On the field −71: Scoreboard −37, Timeouts −17
• PSUL 21-37 at PSU18% → 1%Before kickoff −32 · On the field −17: Scoreboard −21, Possession & field position −1
• FRESW 21-7 vs FRES76% → 98%Before kickoff +26 · On the field +22: Scoreboard +26, Timeouts +1
• HAWW 28-14 at HAW58% → 98%Before kickoff +8 · On the field +40: Scoreboard +46, Clock +3
• SJSUW 30-7 at SJSU41% → 99%Before kickoff −9 · On the field +58: Scoreboard +57, Clock +1
• USUW 48-14 vs USU42% → 100%Before kickoff −8 · On the field +58: Scoreboard +53, Timeouts −1
• CSUW 41-17 at CSU60% → 100%Before kickoff +10 · On the field +39: Scoreboard +45, Clock +1
• WYOW 38-3 vs WYO91% → 100%Before kickoff +41 · On the field +9: Scoreboard +13
• UNLVW 52-14 at UNLV79% → 100%Before kickoff +29 · On the field +21: Scoreboard +27, Clock +1
• NEVW 31-14 vs NEV85% → 98%Before kickoff +35 · On the field +13: Scoreboard +20, Clock +1
• AFW 27-24 vs AF63% → 81%Before kickoff +13 · On the field +18: Scoreboard +17, Possession & field position +1
• CINW 42-7 at CIN40% → 100%Before kickoff −10 · On the field +60: Scoreboard +58, Clock +2

Points of win probability, from San Diego State's side.

Closest call

TOL 14-17 SDSU (2022) - San Diego State dropped to a 13.4% win probability before pulling it out.