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SDSU

San Diego State 21 at Penn State 37

PSU
2015 · Week 4 · Sep 26, 2015 · Beaver Stadium
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Win probability · PSU
modelPSU aheadSDSU aheadconfidence bandkey playPSU scoreSDSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGFGTDTDTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 12:22 · Tanner Blain punt for 48 yds , DeAndre Thompkins returns for a loss of 3 yards to the PnSt 21 DeAndre Thompkins fumbled, recovered by SDSt Luke Bussey
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+32.5+16.30−16.3−32.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 101Pregame prior+15.8Home team on offense+11.2Score differential+5.0Garbage-time factor+0.9Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+2.8Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.6
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 4:08: Joey Julius kickoff for 65 yds , Rashaad Penny return for 100 yds for a TD, (Donny Hageman KICK) — SDSU win probability +3.2 pts (now 21%) (top driver: PSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 10:23: Maxwell Smith pass complete to Mikah Holder for 19 yds for a TD, (Donny Hageman KICK) — SDSU win probability +6.0 pts (now 28%) (top driver: SDSU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 1:03: Christian Hackenberg pass complete to Mark Allen for 13 yds for a TD, (Joey Julius KICK) — PSU win probability +8.3 pts (now 82%) (top driver: PSU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 0:17: Christian Hackenberg pass complete to Chris Godwin for 11 yds for a TD, (Joey Julius KICK) — PSU win probability +5.8 pts (now 88%) (top driver: PSU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 8:11: Donnel Pumphrey run for 1 yd for a TD, (Donny Hageman KICK) — SDSU win probability +10.4 pts (now 22%) (top driver: SDSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
PSU made the numbers' call on 8 of 10SDSU made the numbers' call on 8 of 9
  1. Q1 15:00SDSU 4th & 17 at SDSU 28, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 20.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.5%−0.2
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    20.7%
    average punt
  2. Q1 12:47PSU 4th & 5 at SDSU 46, tied
    Close callPunted · 78.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.9%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    78.8%−0.1
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    78.9%−<0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 9:26SDSU 4th & 9 at SDSU 21, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 21.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.7%−0.2
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    21.9%
    average punt
  4. Q1 0:43PSU 4th & 11 at SDSU 23, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 75.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.9%−0.3
    25% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    75.2%
    70% to make
    Punt
    73.7%−1.6
    average punt
  5. Q2 15:00SDSU 4th & 8 at SDSU 37, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 23.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.0%−0.3
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.3%
    average punt
  6. Q2 11:59PSU 4th & 7 at SDSU 7, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 75.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.2%−0.2
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    75.4%
    91% to make
    Punt
    72.5%−2.9
    average punt
  7. Q2 6:25SDSU 4th & 8 at SDSU 41, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.9%−0.7
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.7%
    average punt
  8. Q2 4:54PSU 4th & 8 at PSU 29, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 67.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.2%−0.7
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    67.9%
    average punt
  9. Q3 14:53PSU 4th & 12 at PSU 38, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 86.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.1%−1.1
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    86.2%
    average punt
  10. Q3 12:22SDSU 4th & 9 at SDSU 28, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.1%−0.6
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    13.6%
    average punt
  11. Q3 8:02PSU 4th & 1 at PSU 35, up 6
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.8 ptsPunted · 77.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    77.3%−1.8
    average punt
  12. Q3 6:19SDSU 4th & 7 at PSU 41, down 6
    Close callPunted · 24.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.2%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    23.7%−1.5
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    24.4%−0.7
    average punt
  13. Q3 4:15PSU 4th & 16 at PSU 41, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 76.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.3%−4.1
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    78.4%
    average punt
  14. Q4 13:36SDSU 4th & 17 at SDSU 30, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.3%−1.2
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.5%
    average punt
  15. Q4 9:52PSU 4th & 6 at SDSU 9, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 94.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.8%−0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    93.9%
    89% to make
    Punt
    88.2%−5.6
    average punt
  16. Q4 9:52SDSU 4th & 15 at SDSU 46, down 16
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.0%−0.6
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.6%
    average punt
  17. Q4 6:53PSU 4th & 11 at PSU 29, up 16
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 96.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.9%−0.5
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    96.4%
    average punt
  18. Q4 3:25SDSU 4th & 7 at PSU 48, down 16
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 3.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.6%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    2.5%−0.1
    average punt
  19. Q4 1:00PSU 4th & 9 at PSU 49, up 16
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.1%−<0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    98.1%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
PSU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3SDSU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 4:20PSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    78.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    78.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 10:23SDSU Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    26.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    26.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 1:03PSU Touchdown, up 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    76.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    76.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 0:17PSU Touchdown, up 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    85.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    85.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 8:11SDSU Touchdown, down 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    19.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    19.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
SDSUDrive 1PUNT
6 plays · 3 yds · 0:0018% → 18%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
82.2%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 10 yds to the SDSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
82.2%
Donnel Pumphrey run for no gain to the SDSt 35Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 35
0
82.2%
Maxwell Smith pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 10
OWN 35
-7
82.2%
Maxwell Smith sacked by Garrett Sickels and Anthony Zettel for a loss of 7 yards to the SDSt 28Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 17
OWN 28
+1
82.2%
Tanner Blain punt for 38 yds , DeAndre Thompkins returns for 1 yd to the PnSt 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 2PUNT
6 plays · 19 yds · 0:0082% → 82%
Q1 12:47
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+7
81.7%
Akeel Lynch run for 7 yds to the PnSt 42Similar
Q1 12:47
2ND & 3
OWN 42
+7
81.8%
Christian Hackenberg pass complete to Chris Godwin for 7 yds to the PnSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:47
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-3
81.8%
Akeel Lynch run for a loss of 3 yards to the PnSt 46Similar
Q1 12:47
2ND & 13
OWN 46
+5
81.7%
Akeel Lynch run for 5 yds to the SDSt 49Similar
Q1 12:47
3RD & 8
OPP 49
+3
81.7%
Christian Hackenberg run for 3 yds to the SDSt 46Similar
Q1 12:47
4TH & 5
OPP 46
0
81.7%
Chris Gulla punt for 46 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:0019% → 19%
Q1 9:26
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
80.6%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 3 yds to the SDSt 23Similar
Q1 9:26
2ND & 7
OWN 23
-2
80.6%
Donnel Pumphrey run for a loss of 2 yards to the SDSt 21Similar
Q1 9:26
3RD & 9
OWN 21
0
80.8%
Maxwell Smith pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:26
4TH & 9
OWN 21
0
80.9%
Tanner Blain punt for 45 yds, downed at the PnSt 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 4TD
8 plays · 66 yds · 3:4280% → 82%
Q1 8:02
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
80.3%
Saquon Barkley run for no gain to the PnSt 34Similar
Q1 8:02
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+12
80.2%
Christian Hackenberg pass complete to Chris Godwin for 12 yds to the PnSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:02
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+5
80.6%
Saquon Barkley run for 5 yds to the SDSt 49Similar
Q1 8:02
2ND & 5
OPP 49
-2
80.7%
TEAM run for a loss of 17 yards to the PENNST 34 for a 1ST down SAN DIEGO ST Penalty, personal foul (15 Yards) to the PnSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:02
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-1
80.6%
Saquon Barkley run for a loss of 1 yard to the PnSt 48Similar
Q1 8:02
2ND & 11
OWN 48
+45
80.5%
Christian Hackenberg pass complete to Saeed Blacknall for 45 yds to the SDSt 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:02
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
-15
80.8%
PENN ST Penalty, personal foul (-15 Yards) to the SDSt 22Similar
Q1 4:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 22
+22
82.4%
Christian Hackenberg pass complete to Saquon Barkley for 22 yds for a TD, (Joey Julius KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 6FG
8 plays · 53 yds · 3:1879% → 78%
Q1 4:01
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+4
78.9%
Saquon Barkley run for 4 yds to the PnSt 28Similar
Q1 4:01
2ND & 6
OWN 28
+34
79.0%
Saquon Barkley run for 34 yds to the SDSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:01
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+16
79.7%
Christian Hackenberg pass complete to Chris Godwin for 16 yds to the SDSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:01
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+2
79.9%
Christian Hackenberg pass complete to DaeSean Hamilton for 2 yds to the SDSt 20Similar
Q1 4:01
2ND & 8
OPP 20
-3
79.9%
Saquon Barkley run for a loss of 3 yards to the SDSt 23Similar
Q1 4:01
3RD & 11
OPP 23
0
79.5%
Christian Hackenberg pass incomplete to DaeSean Hamilton, broken up by Malik SmithSimilar
Q1 0:43
4TH & 11
OPP 23
+40
78.4%
Joey Julius 40 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:4321% → 21%
Q1 0:43
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
78.6%
Maxwell Smith pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 0:43
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+2
78.7%
Maxwell Smith pass complete to Lloyd Mills for 2 yds to the SDSt 37Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 8
OWN 37
0
78.7%
Maxwell Smith pass incomplete to Donnel Pumphrey, broken up by Jason CabindaSimilar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 8
OWN 37
0
79.2%
Tanner Blain punt for 42 yds, fair catch by DeAndre Thompkins at the PnSt 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 8FG
7 plays · 72 yds · 2:4978% → 81%
Q2 14:48
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+46
78.4%
Christian Hackenberg pass complete to Saeed Blacknall for 46 yds to the SDSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:48
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+2
79.7%
Saquon Barkley run for 2 yds to the SDSt 31Similar
Q2 14:48
2ND & 8
OPP 31
+21
79.7%
Saquon Barkley run for 21 yds to the SDSt 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:48
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
0
79.7%
Christian Hackenberg pass incomplete to Chris Godwin, broken up by JJ WhittakerSimilar
Q2 14:48
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
+3
79.7%
Christian Hackenberg pass complete to Mike Gesicki for 3 yds to the SDSt 7Similar
Q2 14:48
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
0
79.3%
Christian Hackenberg pass incomplete, broken up by Christian HeywardSimilar
Q2 11:59
4TH & GOAL
OPP 7
+24
80.6%
Joey Julius 24 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 9TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 1:3621% → 28%
Q2 11:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+55
79.5%
Rashaad Penny run for 55 yds to the PnSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:59
1ST & 10
OPP 20
-5
77.5%
SAN DIEGO ST Penalty, illegal procedure (-5 Yards) to the PnSt 25Similar
Q2 11:59
1ST & 15
OPP 25
+6
77.9%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 6 yds to the PnSt 19Similar
Q2 10:23
2ND & 9
OPP 19
+19
71.9%
Maxwell Smith pass complete to Mikah Holder for 19 yds for a TD, (Donny Hageman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 10MISSED FG
9 plays · 30 yds · 0:0075% → 76%
Q2 10:17
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
74.9%
Christian Hackenberg pass incomplete to Chris GodwinSimilar
Q2 10:17
2ND & 10
OWN 32
+4
74.8%
Akeel Lynch run for 4 yds to the PnSt 36Similar
Q2 10:17
3RD & 6
OWN 36
+7
74.6%
Christian Hackenberg pass complete to Saeed Blacknall for 7 yds to the PnSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:17
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+14
76.0%
Christian Hackenberg pass complete to DaeSean Hamilton for 14 yds to the SDSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:17
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+2
76.5%
Akeel Lynch run for 2 yds to the SDSt 41Similar
Q2 10:17
2ND & 8
OPP 41
-5
76.5%
PENN ST Penalty, illegal procedure (-5 Yards) to the SDSt 46Similar
Q2 10:17
2ND & 13
OPP 46
+8
75.6%
Christian Hackenberg pass complete to Mike Gesicki for 8 yds to the SDSt 38Similar
Q2 10:17
3RD & 5
OPP 38
0
76.3%
Christian Hackenberg pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 11PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:0030% → 28%
Q2 6:25
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+7
69.6%
Chase Price run for 7 yds to the SDSt 46Similar
Q2 6:25
2ND & 3
OWN 46
0
69.3%
Maxwell Smith pass incomplete, broken up by Anthony ZettelSimilar
Q2 6:25
3RD & 3
OWN 46
-5
69.6%
Maxwell Smith sacked by Carl Nassib for a loss of 5 yards to the SDSt 41Similar
Q2 6:25
4TH & 8
OWN 41
+10
71.7%
Tanner Blain punt for 47 yds , DeAndre Thompkins returns for 10 yds to the PnSt 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 12PUNT
6 plays · 7 yds · 0:0072% → 70%
Q2 4:54
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
71.5%
Akeel Lynch run for no gain to the PnSt 22Similar
Q2 4:54
2ND & 10
OWN 22
+5
71.4%
SAN DIEGO ST Penalty, Defensive pass interference (5 Yards) to the PnSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:54
1ST & 10
OWN 27
-1
71.7%
Akeel Lynch run for a loss of 1 yard to the PnSt 26Similar
Q2 4:54
2ND & 11
OWN 26
+3
71.4%
Akeel Lynch run for 3 yds to the PnSt 29Similar
Q2 4:54
3RD & 8
OWN 29
0
70.7%
Christian Hackenberg pass incomplete to Chris GodwinSimilar
Q2 4:54
4TH & 8
OWN 29
0
70.2%
Chris Gulla punt for 44 yds , Lloyd Mills returns for no gain to the SDSt 27 Lloyd Mills fumbled, recovered by PnSt Chris GodwinSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 13TD
4 plays · 27 yds · 1:3074% → 82%
Q2 2:33
1ST & 10
OPP 27
-2
73.8%
Akeel Lynch run for a loss of 2 yards to the SDSt 29Similar
Q2 2:33
2ND & 12
OPP 29
+13
73.5%
Christian Hackenberg pass complete to DaeSean Hamilton for 13 yds to the SDSt 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:33
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+3
73.8%
Akeel Lynch run for 3 yds to the SDSt 13Similar
Q2 1:03
2ND & 7
OPP 13
+13
82.1%
Christian Hackenberg pass complete to Mark Allen for 13 yds for a TD, (Joey Julius KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 14FUMBLE
2 plays · -2 yds · 0:0022% → 22%
Q2 1:03
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
78.3%
Donnel Pumphrey run for no gain to the SDSt 23 Donnel Pumphrey fumbled, forced by Garrett Sickels, recovered by PnSt Anthony ZettelSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 15TD
7 plays · 23 yds · 0:3882% → 88%
Q2 0:55
1ST & 10
OPP 23
-3
82.1%
Christian Hackenberg sacked by Kyle Kelley for a loss of 3 yards to the SDSt 26Similar
Q2 0:50
2ND & 13
OPP 26
+8
81.7%
Christian Hackenberg pass complete to Kyle Carter for 8 yds to the SDSt 18Similar
Q2 0:50
3RD & 5
OPP 18
+7
81.2%
Christian Hackenberg pass complete to DaeSean Hamilton for 7 yds to the SDSt 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:50
1ST & 10
OPP 11
0
81.9%
Christian Hackenberg pass incomplete to Chris GodwinSimilar
Q2 0:50
2ND & 10
OPP 11
0
81.9%
Christian Hackenberg pass incomplete to Chris Godwin, broken up by Kameron KellySimilar
Q2 0:17
3RD & 10
OPP 11
+11
87.7%
Christian Hackenberg pass complete to Chris Godwin for 11 yds for a TD, (Joey Julius KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 16END OF HALF
7 plays · -5 yds · 0:0413% → 13%
Q2 0:17
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
87.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the SDSt 24Similar
Q2 0:15
2ND & 11
OWN 24
-3
86.7%
TEAM run for a loss of 3 yards to the SDSt 21Similar
Q2 0:13
3RD & 14
OWN 21
-1
86.9%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the SDSt 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 17PUNT
8 plays · 10 yds · 0:0088% → 87%
Q3 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+5
87.8%
Mark Allen run for 5 yds to the PnSt 33Similar
Q3 14:53
2ND & 5
OWN 33
0
88.0%
Christian Hackenberg pass incomplete to DaeSean HamiltonSimilar
Q3 14:53
3RD & 5
OWN 33
+7
87.4%
SAN DIEGO ST Penalty, Defensive pass interference (7 Yards) to the PnSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-3
88.4%
Mark Allen run for a loss of 3 yards to the PnSt 37Similar
Q3 14:53
2ND & 13
OWN 37
-3
87.8%
Mark Allen run for a loss of 3 yards to the PnSt 34Similar
Q3 14:53
3RD & 16
OWN 34
+4
87.2%
Christian Hackenberg pass complete to DaeSean Hamilton for 4 yds to the PnSt 38Similar
Q3 14:53
4TH & 12
OWN 38
0
86.9%
Chris Gulla punt for 35 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the SDSt 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 18PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:0013% → 12%
Q3 12:22
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+1
86.9%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 1 yd to the SDSt 28Similar
Q3 12:22
2ND & 9
OWN 28
0
87.0%
Maxwell Smith pass incomplete to Mikah HolderSimilar
Q3 12:22
3RD & 9
OWN 28
0
87.5%
Maxwell Smith pass incomplete to Chase Favreau, broken up by Garrett SickelsSimilar
Q3 12:22
4TH & 9
OWN 28
-3
87.7%
Tanner Blain punt for 48 yds , DeAndre Thompkins returns for a loss of 3 yards to the PnSt 21 DeAndre Thompkins fumbled, recovered by SDSt Luke BusseySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 19TD
10 plays · 21 yds · 3:1214% → 22%
Q3 11:23
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+1
85.9%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 1 yd to the PnSt 20Similar
Q3 11:23
2ND & 9
OPP 20
0
85.9%
Maxwell Smith pass incomplete to Mikah HolderSimilar
Q3 11:23
3RD & 9
OPP 20
+12
87.0%
Maxwell Smith pass complete to Donnel Pumphrey for 12 yds to the PnSt 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:23
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+6
85.9%
PENN ST Penalty, Defensive pass interference (6 Yards) to the PnSt 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:02
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
87.6%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 1 yd to the PnSt 1Similar
Q3 10:02
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
-1
87.6%
Donnel Pumphrey run for a loss of 1 yard to the PnSt 2Similar
Q3 10:02
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
88.3%
PENN ST Penalty, offside defense (1 Yards) to the PnSt 1Similar
Q3 8:11
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
77.8%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 1 yd for a TD, (Donny Hageman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 20PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:0081% → 81%
Q3 8:02
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+4
81.3%
Christian Hackenberg pass complete to Kyle Carter for 4 yds to the PnSt 30Similar
Q3 8:02
2ND & 6
OWN 30
+4
81.2%
Nick Scott run for 4 yds to the PnSt 34Similar
Q3 8:02
3RD & 2
OWN 34
+1
81.2%
Brandon Polk run for 1 yd to the PnSt 35Similar
Q3 8:02
4TH & 1
OWN 35
0
80.5%
Chris Gulla punt for 27 yds, downed at the SDSt 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 21PUNT
5 plays · 21 yds · 0:0020% → 20%
Q3 6:19
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+18
79.7%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 18 yds to the PnSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:19
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+1
77.5%
Maxwell Smith run for 1 yd to the PnSt 43Similar
Q3 6:19
2ND & 9
OPP 43
+2
77.6%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 2 yds to the PnSt 41Similar
Q3 6:19
3RD & 7
OPP 41
0
77.8%
Maxwell Smith pass incomplete to Donnel PumphreySimilar
Q3 6:19
4TH & 7
OPP 41
0
79.9%
Tanner Blain punt for 29 yds, downed at the PnSt 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 22PUNT
5 plays · 29 yds · 0:0081% → 80%
Q3 4:15
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+35
81.3%
Christian Hackenberg pass complete to Kyle Carter for 35 yds to the PnSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:15
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
83.5%
Christian Hackenberg pass incomplete to Saeed BlacknallSimilar
Q3 4:15
2ND & 10
OWN 47
0
83.2%
Nick Scott run for no gain to the PnSt 47Similar
Q3 4:15
3RD & 10
OWN 47
-6
81.7%
Christian Hackenberg sacked by Calvin Munson for a loss of 6 yards to the PnSt 41Similar
Q3 4:15
4TH & 16
OWN 41
0
80.1%
Chris Gulla punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Lloyd Mills at the SDSt 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 23FUMBLE TD
9 plays · 53 yds · 3:3519% → 8%
Q3 2:19
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+1
81.0%
Chase Price run for 1 yd to the SDSt 19Similar
Q3 2:19
2ND & 9
OWN 19
0
81.2%
Maxwell Smith pass incomplete to Mikah HolderSimilar
Q3 2:19
3RD & 9
OWN 19
+10
82.1%
Maxwell Smith pass complete to Chase Price for 10 yds to the SDSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:19
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+3
80.7%
Chase Price run for 3 yds to the SDSt 32Similar
Q3 2:19
2ND & 7
OWN 32
+13
80.4%
Chase Price run for 13 yds to the SDSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+31
78.8%
Maxwell Smith pass complete to Mikah Holder for 31 yds to the PnSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 24
-1
75.6%
Maxwell Smith run for a loss of 1 yard to the PnSt 25 Maxwell Smith fumbled, recovered by SDSt Maxwell SmithSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 11
OPP 25
0
75.8%
Maxwell Smith pass incomplete to David WellsSimilar
Q4 13:44
3RD & 11
OPP 25
+71
92.5%
Maxwell Smith sacked by Carl Nassib for a loss of 8 yards Maxwell Smith fumbled, recovered by PnSt Austin Johnson , return for 0 yards , return for 71 yds, (Joey Julius KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 24PUNT
5 plays · -7 yds · 0:007% → 6%
Q4 13:36
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
92.7%
Maxwell Smith pass incomplete to Jemond HazelySimilar
Q4 13:36
2ND & 10
OWN 37
0
92.9%
Maxwell Smith pass incomplete to Donnel PumphreySimilar
Q4 13:36
3RD & 10
OWN 37
-7
93.5%
Maxwell Smith sacked by Curtis Cothran for a loss of 7 yards to the SDSt 30Similar
Q4 13:36
4TH & 17
OWN 30
0
93.7%
Tanner Blain punt for 31 yds, downed at the PnSt 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 25FG
8 plays · 52 yds · 2:5196% → 97%
Q4 12:43
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
95.6%
Christian Hackenberg pass incomplete to Mark AllenSimilar
Q4 12:43
2ND & 10
OWN 39
0
95.5%
Mark Allen run for no gain to the PnSt 39Similar
Q4 12:43
3RD & 10
OWN 39
+16
95.4%
Christian Hackenberg pass complete to Mark Allen for 16 yds to the SDSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:43
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+32
95.7%
Nick Scott pass complete to Chris Godwin for 32 yds to the SDSt 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:43
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+4
95.8%
Nick Scott run for 4 yds to the SDSt 9Similar
Q4 12:43
2ND & 6
OPP 9
0
95.8%
Christian Hackenberg pass incomplete to DaeSean HamiltonSimilar
Q4 12:43
3RD & 6
OPP 9
0
95.7%
Christian Hackenberg pass incomplete to DaeSean HamiltonSimilar
Q4 9:52
4TH & 6
OPP 9
+26
96.6%
Joey Julius 26 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 26PUNT
9 plays · 21 yds · 0:004% → 4%
Q4 9:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+14
96.1%
Maxwell Smith pass complete to Donnel Pumphrey for 14 yds to the SDSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:52
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
95.8%
Maxwell Smith pass incomplete to Mikah HolderSimilar
Q4 9:52
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+9
95.9%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 9 yds to the SDSt 48Similar
Q4 9:52
3RD & 1
OWN 48
+3
95.7%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 3 yds to the PnSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:52
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
95.6%
Maxwell Smith pass incomplete to Christian Cumberlander, broken up by Trevor WilliamsSimilar
Q4 9:52
2ND & 10
OPP 49
-5
95.7%
Maxwell Smith pass complete to Donnel Pumphrey for a loss of 5 yards to the SDSt 46Similar
Q4 9:52
3RD & 15
OWN 46
0
96.2%
Maxwell Smith pass incomplete to Mikah HolderSimilar
Q4 9:52
4TH & 15
OWN 46
+9
96.3%
Tanner Blain punt for 33 yds , DeAndre Thompkins returns for 9 yds to the PnSt 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 27PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
Q4 6:53
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-10
97.2%
PENN ST Penalty, Offensive holding (-10 Yards) to the PnSt 20Similar
Q4 6:53
1ST & 20
OWN 20
+3
97.1%
Christian Hackenberg pass complete to Saeed Blacknall for 3 yds to the PnSt 23Similar
Q4 6:53
2ND & 17
OWN 23
0
97.1%
Christian Hackenberg pass incomplete to Saeed BlacknallSimilar
Q4 6:53
3RD & 17
OWN 23
+6
97.1%
Mark Allen run for 6 yds to the PnSt 29Similar
Q4 6:53
4TH & 11
OWN 29
-5
96.9%
Chris Gulla punt for 50 yds , Lloyd Mills returns for a loss of 5 yards to the SDSt 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 28DOWNS
8 plays · 36 yds · 1:392% → 2%
Q4 5:04
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+4
97.7%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 4 yds to the SDSt 20Similar
Q4 5:04
2ND & 6
OWN 20
-1
97.7%
Donnel Pumphrey run for a loss of 1 yard to the SDSt 19Similar
Q4 5:04
3RD & 7
OWN 19
+30
97.8%
Maxwell Smith pass complete to Donnel Pumphrey for 30 yds to the SDSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:25
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
97.6%
Maxwell Smith run for no gain to the SDSt 49Similar
Q4 3:25
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+3
97.6%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 3 yds to the PnSt 48Similar
Q4 3:25
3RD & 7
OPP 48
0
97.6%
Maxwell Smith pass incomplete to Donnel PumphreySimilar
Q4 3:25
4TH & 7
OPP 48
0
97.7%
Maxwell Smith pass incomplete to Mikah HolderSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 29PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 1:3699% → 99%
Q4 2:36
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+2
98.7%
Nick Scott run for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 2:36
2ND & 8
50
-1
98.7%
Nick Scott run for a loss of 1 yard to the PnSt 49Similar
Q4 2:36
3RD & 9
OWN 49
0
98.6%
Nick Scott run for no gain to the PnSt 49Similar
Q4 1:00
4TH & 9
OWN 49
0
98.8%
Chris Gulla punt for 51 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 30END OF GAME
4 plays · 22 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q4 0:52
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+18
99.1%
Maxwell Smith pass complete to Mikah Holder for 18 yds to the SDSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:52
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
99.1%
Maxwell Smith pass incomplete to Chase FavreauSimilar
Q4 0:52
2ND & 10
OWN 38
-6
99.1%
Maxwell Smith sacked by Antoine White and Tarow Barney for a loss of 6 yards to the SDSt 32Similar
Q4 0:52
3RD & 16
OWN 32
+10
99.2%
Maxwell Smith pass complete to Mikah Holder for 10 yds to the SDSt 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 8:11
Donnel Pumphrey run for 1 yd for a TD, (Donny Hageman KICK)
-10.4
TD · Q2 1:03
Christian Hackenberg pass complete to Mark Allen for 13 yds for a TD, (Joey Julius KICK)
+8.3
TD · Q2 10:23
Maxwell Smith pass complete to Mikah Holder for 19 yds for a TD, (Donny Hageman KICK)
-6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com