Try the model
SDSU

San Diego State 7 at California 35

CAL
2015 · Week 2 · Sep 12, 2015 · California Memorial Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · CAL
modelCAL aheadSDSU aheadconfidence bandkey playCAL scoreSDSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 7:56 · Tanner Blain punt for 40 yds , Trevor Davis returns for 12 yds to the SDSt 45
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+36.5+18.30−18.3−36.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 113Pregame prior+11.4Home team on offense+14.1Score differential+4.4Garbage-time factor+1.9Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+3.5Blowout margin+1.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 12:22: Jared Goff pass complete to Darius Powe for 4 yds for a TD, (Matt Anderson KICK) — CAL win probability +4.7 pts (now 76%) (top driver: CAL has the ball).
  2. KEY PLAY · Q2 5:56: Donnel Pumphrey run for 6 yds to the SDSt 26 — SDSU win probability +3.6 pts (now 31%) (top driver: SDSU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 0:11: Jared Goff pass complete to Maurice Harris for 13 yds for a TD, (Matt Anderson KICK) — CAL win probability +8.5 pts (now 81%) (top driver: CAL has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 14:50: Jared Goff pass complete to Trevor Davis for 75 yds for a TD, (Matt Anderson KICK) — CAL win probability +9.0 pts (now 87%) (top driver: CAL has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 2:59: Daniel Lasco run for 3 yds for a TD, (Matt Anderson KICK) — CAL win probability +8.0 pts (now 98%) (top driver: CAL has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
CAL made the numbers' call on 5 of 7SDSU made the numbers' call on 9 of 9
  1. Q1 9:18CAL 4th & 7 at CAL 37, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 70.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.6%−0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    70.7%
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:18SDSU 4th & 10 at SDSU 40, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 29.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.1%−0.2
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.2%
    average punt
  3. Q1 7:50CAL 4th & 18 at SDSU 48, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 69.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.4%−0.4
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    69.8%
    average punt
  4. Q2 15:00SDSU 4th & 14 at SDSU 43, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 35.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.5%−1.1
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    35.6%
    average punt
  5. Q2 12:14SDSU 4th & 8 at CAL 45, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.1%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    30.6%−0.6
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    31.2%
    average punt
  6. Q2 10:24SDSU 4th & 16 at CAL 47, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.3%−1.0
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.3%
    average punt
  7. Q2 5:56CAL 4th & 5 at SDSU 18, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 69.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.7%−0.3
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    68.9%
    79% to make
    Punt
    64.5%−4.4
    average punt
  8. Q3 12:38SDSU 4th & 4 at SDSU 41, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 14.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.8%−0.2
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    15.0%
    average punt
  9. Q3 7:56SDSU 4th & 18 at SDSU 17, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.6%−2.2
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.8%
    average punt
  10. Q3 5:35CAL 4th & 2 at SDSU 14, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 89.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    89.8%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    89.0%−0.7
    84% to make
    Punt
    83.2%−6.6
    average punt
  11. Q4 15:00CAL 4th & 1 at CAL 41, up 21
    Close callPunted · 98.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.2%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    97.8%−0.4
    average punt
  12. Q4 12:24SDSU 4th & 11 at SDSU 38, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.2%−0.3
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.5%
    average punt
  13. Q4 8:02SDSU 4th & 10 at SDSU 47, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−<0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%
    average punt
  14. Q4 6:27CAL 4th & 5 at CAL 14, up 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.8%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.9%
    average punt
  15. Q4 5:09SDSU 4th & 9 at SDSU 45, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−<0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%
    average punt
  16. Q4 4:10CAL 4th & 1 at CAL 17, up 28
    Close callPunted · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    100.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.9%−0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
CAL made the numbers' call on 5 of 5SDSU made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 11:14SDSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    27.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    27.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 12:22CAL Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    68.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    68.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 0:11CAL Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    75.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    75.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 14:50CAL Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    84.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    84.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 2:59CAL Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 8:07CAL Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
SDSUDrive 1TD
9 plays · 71 yds · 3:4622% → 24%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 29
-3
78.4%
Donnel Pumphrey run for a loss of 3 yards to the SDSt 26Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 13
OWN 26
+10
78.4%
Maxwell Smith pass complete to Donnel Pumphrey for 10 yds to the SDSt 36Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 3
OWN 36
+8
78.4%
Maxwell Smith pass complete to Mikah Holder for 8 yds to the SDSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+3
78.4%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 3 yds to the SDSt 47Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 47
+4
78.4%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 4 yds to the Cal 49Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 3
OPP 49
+11
78.4%
Maxwell Smith pass complete to Chase Favreau for 11 yds to the Cal 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+9
78.4%
Rashaad Penny run for 9 yds to the Cal 29Similar
Q1 11:14
2ND & 1
OPP 29
+29
76.1%
Maxwell Smith pass complete to Daniel Brunskill for 29 yds for a TD, (Donny Hageman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 2PUNT
8 plays · 13 yds · 1:5076% → 75%
Q1 11:08
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+10
76.4%
Jared Goff pass complete to Kenny Lawler for 10 yds to the Cal 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:08
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+7
76.4%
Jared Goff pass complete to Bryce Treggs for 7 yds to the Cal 41Similar
Q1 11:08
2ND & 3
OWN 41
-5
76.7%
CALIFORNIA Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Cal 36Similar
Q1 11:08
2ND & 8
OWN 36
+1
76.5%
Jared Goff pass complete to Bryce Treggs for 1 yd to the Cal 37Similar
Q1 11:08
3RD & 7
OWN 37
0
76.4%
Jared Goff pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:18
4TH & 7
OWN 37
+23
75.1%
Cole Leininger punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Damontae Kazee at the CALIFORNIA 25 CALIFORNIA Penalty, kick catching interference (-15 Yards) to the SDSt 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:0025% → 25%
Q1 9:18
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+8
74.8%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 8 yds to the SDSt 48Similar
Q1 9:18
2ND & 2
OWN 48
-15
74.8%
SAN DIEGO ST Penalty, personal foul (-15 Yards) to the SDSt 33Similar
Q1 9:18
2ND & 17
OWN 33
+7
75.3%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 7 yds to the SDSt 40Similar
Q1 9:18
3RD & 10
OWN 40
0
75.1%
Maxwell Smith pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:18
4TH & 10
OWN 40
+3
75.4%
Tanner Blain punt for 51 yds , Trevor Davis returns for 3 yds to the Cal 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 4PUNT
8 plays · 40 yds · 0:0074% → 74%
Q1 7:50
1ST & 10
OWN 12
0
74.2%
Jared Goff pass complete to Daniel Lasco for no gain to the Cal 12Similar
Q1 7:50
2ND & 10
OWN 12
+34
74.2%
Jared Goff pass complete to Stephen Anderson for 34 yds to the Cal 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:50
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+5
74.8%
Daniel Lasco run for 5 yds to the SDSt 49Similar
Q1 7:50
2ND & 5
OPP 49
+9
75.0%
Daniel Lasco run for 9 yds to the SDSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:50
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-11
75.0%
Jared Goff sacked by Calvin Munson for a loss of 11 yards to the Cal 49Similar
Q1 7:50
2ND & 21
OWN 49
+3
74.5%
Vic Enwere run for 3 yds to the SDSt 48Similar
Q1 7:50
3RD & 18
OPP 48
0
74.3%
Jared Goff pass incomplete to Khalfani Muhammad, broken up by Na'im McGeeSimilar
Q1 7:50
4TH & 18
OPP 48
0
74.1%
Cole Leininger punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Mikah Holder at the SDSt 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 5PUNT
13 plays · 33 yds · 4:4428% → 31%
Q1 4:44
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+6
72.2%
Chase Price run for 6 yds to the SDSt 16Similar
Q1 4:44
2ND & 4
OWN 16
+3
72.2%
Chase Price run for 3 yds to the SDSt 19Similar
Q1 4:44
3RD & 1
OWN 19
+2
72.2%
Chase Price run for 2 yds to the SDSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:44
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+8
72.1%
Maxwell Smith pass complete to Dakota Gordon for 8 yds to the SDSt 29Similar
Q1 4:44
2ND & 2
OWN 29
+1
71.6%
Dakota Gordon run for 1 yd to the SDSt 30Similar
Q1 4:44
3RD & 1
OWN 30
+6
71.7%
Chase Price run for 6 yds to the SDSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:35
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+6
69.5%
Chase Price run for 6 yds to the SDSt 42Similar
Q1 1:35
2ND & 4
OWN 42
+5
69.2%
Chase Price run for 5 yds to the SDSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:35
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+1
69.1%
Rashaad Penny run for 1 yd to the SDSt 48Similar
Q1 1:35
2ND & 9
OWN 48
-5
69.1%
Maxwell Smith sacked by Cameron Walker for a loss of 5 yards to the SDSt 43Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 14
OWN 43
0
69.0%
Maxwell Smith pass incomplete to Chase PriceSimilar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 14
OWN 43
0
69.5%
Tanner Blain punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Trevor Davis at the Cal 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 6TD
9 plays · 78 yds · 2:2769% → 76%
Q2 14:49
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
68.6%
Jared Goff pass incomplete to Bryce TreggsSimilar
Q2 14:49
2ND & 10
OWN 22
+8
68.6%
Jared Goff pass complete to Stephen Anderson for 8 yds to the Cal 30Similar
Q2 14:49
3RD & 2
OWN 30
+12
68.5%
Daniel Lasco run for 12 yds to the Cal 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:49
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+9
69.6%
Daniel Lasco run for 9 yds to the SDSt 49Similar
Q2 14:49
2ND & 1
OPP 49
+15
70.2%
SAN DIEGO ST Penalty, personal foul (Malik Smith) to the SDSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:49
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
70.8%
Khalfani Muhammad run for no gain to the SDSt 34Similar
Q2 14:49
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+32
70.7%
Jared Goff pass complete to Raymond Hudson for 32 yds to the SDSt 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:49
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
-2
70.8%
Daniel Lasco run for a loss of 2 yards to the SDSt 4Similar
Q2 12:22
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
75.5%
Jared Goff pass complete to Darius Powe for 4 yds for a TD, (Matt Anderson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 7PUNT
6 plays · 13 yds · 0:0029% → 28%
Q2 12:14
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+11
71.4%
Maxwell Smith pass complete to Dakota Gordon for 11 yds to the Cal 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:14
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+2
70.9%
Dakota Gordon run for 2 yds to the Cal 45Similar
Q2 12:14
2ND & 8
OPP 45
0
71.0%
Maxwell Smith pass incomplete to Chase Favreau, broken up by Darius AllensworthSimilar
Q2 12:14
3RD & 8
OPP 45
0
71.2%
Maxwell Smith pass incomplete to Chase FavreauSimilar
Q2 12:14
4TH & 8
OPP 45
0
72.5%
Tanner Blain punt for 45 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 8INT
3 plays · 10 yds · 0:0073% → 73%
Q2 11:04
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-2
73.2%
Daniel Lasco run for a loss of 2 yards to the Cal 18Similar
Q2 11:04
2ND & 12
OWN 18
+12
73.0%
Goff, Jared pass incomplete to Davis, Trevor, PENALTY SDSU pass interference (KAZEE, Damontae) 12 yards to the CAL30, 1ST DOWN CAL, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 11:04
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
73.3%
Jared Goff pass intercepted JJ Whittaker return for no gain to the Cal 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 9PUNT
6 plays · 0 yds · 0:0030% → 28%
Q2 10:24
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+21
70.0%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 21 yds to the Cal 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:24
1ST & 10
OPP 26
-15
69.3%
SAN DIEGO ST Penalty, personal foul (-15 Yards) to the Cal 41Similar
Q2 10:24
4TH & 16
OPP 47
0
72.4%
Tanner Blain punt for 29 yds, fair catch by Bryce Treggs at the Cal 18Similar
Q2 10:24
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+3
70.0%
Christian Chapman pass complete to Rashaad Penny for 3 yds to the Cal 38Similar
Q2 10:24
2ND & 7
OPP 38
-9
70.0%
Christian Chapman sacked by DeVante Wilson for a loss of 9 yards to the Cal 47Similar
Q2 10:24
3RD & 16
OPP 47
0
71.7%
Christian Chapman pass incomplete to Mikah Holder, broken up by Caleb ColemanSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 10MISSED FG
5 plays · 64 yds · 1:5772% → 72%
Q2 7:53
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+59
72.2%
Jared Goff pass complete to Trevor Davis for 59 yds to the SDSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:53
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+4
74.7%
Daniel Lasco run for 4 yds to the SDSt 19Similar
Q2 7:53
2ND & 6
OPP 19
+1
74.7%
Daniel Lasco run for 1 yd to the SDSt 18Similar
Q2 7:53
3RD & 5
OPP 18
0
74.0%
Jared Goff pass incomplete to Kenny Lawler, broken up by Damontae KazeeSimilar
Q2 5:56
4TH & 5
OPP 18
+35
72.4%
Matt Anderson 35 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 11INT
10 plays · 29 yds · 0:0031% → 33%
Q2 5:56
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+6
68.9%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 6 yds to the SDSt 26Similar
Q2 5:56
2ND & 4
OWN 26
-4
68.4%
Donnel Pumphrey run for a loss of 4 yards to the SDSt 22Similar
Q2 5:56
3RD & 8
OWN 22
+14
69.9%
Christian Chapman pass complete to Mikah Holder for 14 yds to the SDSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:56
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+5
68.1%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 9 yds to the SDSt 45 SAN DIEGO ST Penalty, helping runner (Dakota Gordon) to the SDSt 41Similar
Q2 5:56
3RD & 9
OWN 49
0
68.0%
Christian Chapman pass intercepted Darius White return for no gain to the Cal 35Similar
Q2 5:56
1ST & 5
OWN 41
+3
66.9%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 3 yds to the SDSt 44Similar
Q2 5:56
2ND & 2
OWN 44
+1
66.9%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 1 yd to the SDSt 45Similar
Q2 5:56
3RD & 1
OWN 45
+3
67.2%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 3 yds to the SDSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:56
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
66.9%
Christian Chapman pass incomplete to Mikah HolderSimilar
Q2 5:56
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+1
67.3%
Chase Price run for 1 yd to the SDSt 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 12TD
3 plays · 65 yds · 0:5270% → 81%
Q2 1:03
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+28
70.1%
Jared Goff pass complete to Bryce Treggs for 28 yds to the SDSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:03
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+24
72.5%
Jared Goff pass complete to Kenny Lawler for 24 yds to the SDSt 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:11
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+13
81.1%
Jared Goff pass complete to Maurice Harris for 13 yds for a TD, (Matt Anderson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 13END OF HALF
2 plays · -1 yds · 0:0022% → 22%
Q2 0:10
1ST & 10
OWN 33
-1
78.3%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the SDSt 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 14TD
2 plays · 75 yds · 0:0087% → 87%
Q3 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+75
87.2%
Jared Goff pass complete to Trevor Davis for 75 yds for a TD, (Matt Anderson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 15PUNT
7 plays · 6 yds · 2:1214% → 14%
Q3 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
86.1%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 5 yds to the SDSt 40Similar
Q3 14:50
2ND & 5
OWN 40
-9
85.4%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 6 yds to the SDSt 46 SAN DIEGO ST Penalty, illegal block (-15 Yards) to the SDSt 31Similar
Q3 14:50
2ND & 14
OWN 31
+5
86.7%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 5 yds to the SDSt 36Similar
Q3 14:50
3RD & 9
OWN 36
+5
86.6%
Maxwell Smith pass complete to Mikah Holder for 5 yds to the SDSt 41Similar
Q3 12:38
4TH & 4
OWN 41
0
85.7%
Tanner Blain punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Trevor Davis at the Cal 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 16PUNT
12 plays · 21 yds · 0:0086% → 85%
Q3 12:31
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+11
86.0%
Daniel Lasco run for 11 yds to the Cal 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:31
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
86.2%
Jared Goff pass incomplete to Stephen Anderson, broken up by Jon SanchezSimilar
Q3 12:31
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+3
86.0%
Jared Goff pass complete to Vic Enwere for 3 yds to the Cal 34Similar
Q3 12:31
3RD & 7
OWN 34
+8
85.5%
Jared Goff pass complete to Darius Powe for 8 yds to the Cal 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:31
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+19
86.8%
Daniel Lasco run for 19 yds to the SDSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:31
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+11
87.0%
Daniel Lasco run for 11 yds to the SDSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:31
1ST & 10
OPP 28
-1
87.0%
Daniel Lasco run for a loss of 1 yard to the SDSt 29Similar
Q3 12:31
2ND & 11
OPP 29
-15
86.9%
Goff, Jared pass incomplete to Hansen, Chad, PENALTY CAL pass interference (Hansen, Chad) 15 yards to the SDSU44, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 12:31
2ND & 26
OPP 44
-5
86.7%
CALIFORNIA Penalty, delay of game (Jared Goff) to the SDSt 49Similar
Q3 12:31
2ND & 31
OPP 49
0
86.8%
Khalfani Muhammad run for no gain to the SDSt 49Similar
Q3 12:31
3RD & 31
OPP 49
-10
86.0%
Jared Goff sacked by Jake Fely and Calvin Munson for a loss of 10 yards to the Cal 41Similar
Q3 12:31
4TH & 41
OWN 41
0
84.8%
Cole Leininger punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Damontae Kazee at the SDSt 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 17PUNT
5 plays · -8 yds · 0:0013% → 12%
Q3 7:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-10
87.3%
PUMPHREY, Donnel rush for loss of 1 yard to the SDSU24 (Nickerson, Hardy;Jalil, Mustafa), PENALTY SDSU holding (SIRAGUSA, Nico) 10 yards to the SDSU15, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 7:56
1ST & 20
OWN 15
-5
87.5%
PUMPHREY, Donnel rush for 9 yards to the SDSU24 (McClure, Stefan), PENALTY SDSU illegal formation 5 yards to the SDSU10, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 7:56
1ST & 25
OWN 10
+6
87.5%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 6 yds to the SDSt 16Similar
Q3 7:56
2ND & 19
OWN 16
+1
87.7%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 1 yd to the SDSt 17Similar
Q3 7:56
4TH & 18
OWN 17
+12
88.1%
Tanner Blain punt for 40 yds , Trevor Davis returns for 12 yds to the SDSt 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 18TD
8 plays · 45 yds · 2:3690% → 98%
Q3 5:35
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+11
90.1%
Jared Goff pass complete to Maurice Harris for 11 yds to the SDSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:35
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+12
90.2%
Daniel Lasco run for 12 yds to the SDSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:35
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+4
90.1%
Daniel Lasco run for 4 yds to the SDSt 18Similar
Q3 5:35
2ND & 6
OPP 18
0
90.1%
Jared Goff pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:35
3RD & 6
OPP 18
+4
89.8%
Jared Goff pass complete to Trevor Davis for 4 yds to the SDSt 14Similar
Q3 5:35
4TH & 2
OPP 14
+6
89.1%
Vic Enwere run for 6 yds to the SDSt 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:35
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+5
90.1%
Vic Enwere run for 5 yds to the SDSt 3Similar
Q3 2:59
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
98.1%
Daniel Lasco run for 3 yds for a TD, (Matt Anderson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 19INT
8 plays · 34 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q3 2:51
1ST & 10
OWN 34
-5
96.8%
SAN DIEGO ST Penalty, false start (Kwayde Miller) to the SDSt 29Similar
Q3 2:51
1ST & 15
OWN 29
0
97.0%
Maxwell Smith run for no gain to the SDSt 29Similar
Q3 2:51
2ND & 15
OWN 29
0
97.1%
Maxwell Smith pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:51
3RD & 15
OWN 29
+33
97.1%
Maxwell Smith pass complete to Eric Judge for 33 yds to the Cal 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:51
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+2
96.8%
Chase Price run for 2 yds to the Cal 36Similar
Q3 2:51
2ND & 8
OPP 36
+4
96.8%
Chase Price run for 4 yds to the Cal 32Similar
Q3 2:51
3RD & 4
OPP 32
0
96.6%
Maxwell Smith pass intercepted Evan Rambo return for no gain to the Cal 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 20PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:3199% → 99%
Q3 0:31
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+6
98.7%
Daniel Lasco run for 6 yds to the Cal 38Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 38
-10
98.8%
Lasco, Daniel rush for 5 yards to the CAL43 (RICKS, Randy), PENALTY CAL holding (Anderson, Stephen) 10 yards to the CAL28, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 14
OWN 28
+13
98.7%
Daniel Lasco run for 13 yds to the Cal 41Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 41
0
98.8%
Daniel Lasco run for no gain to the Cal 41Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 1
OWN 41
0
98.7%
Cole Leininger punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Mikah Holder at the SDSt 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 21PUNT
10 plays · 25 yds · 1:202% → 1%
Q4 13:44
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+5
98.5%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 5 yds to the SDSt 18Similar
Q4 13:44
2ND & 5
OWN 18
+1
98.5%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 1 yd to the SDSt 19Similar
Q4 12:24
3RD & 4
OWN 19
+8
98.8%
Maxwell Smith pass complete to Daniel Brunskill for 8 yds to the SDSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:24
1ST & 10
OWN 27
-1
98.7%
Donnel Pumphrey run for a loss of 1 yard to the SDSt 26Similar
Q4 12:24
2ND & 11
OWN 26
+13
98.7%
Maxwell Smith pass complete to Donnel Pumphrey for 13 yds to the SDSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:24
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-1
98.6%
Donnel Pumphrey run for a loss of 1 yard to the SDSt 38Similar
Q4 12:24
2ND & 11
OWN 38
0
98.7%
Maxwell Smith pass incomplete to Chase Favreau, broken up by Caleb ColemanSimilar
Q4 12:24
3RD & 11
OWN 38
0
98.7%
Maxwell Smith pass incomplete to Mikah Holder, broken up by Nathan BroussardSimilar
Q4 12:24
4TH & 11
OWN 38
0
98.8%
Tanner Blain punt for 35 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 22TD
8 plays · 73 yds · 2:0699% → 100%
Q4 10:13
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+9
99.3%
Daniel Lasco run for 9 yds to the Cal 36Similar
Q4 10:13
2ND & 1
OWN 36
+2
99.3%
Vic Enwere run for 2 yds to the Cal 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:13
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+15
99.3%
SAN DIEGO ST Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Noble Hall) to the SDSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:13
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+5
99.4%
Kenny Lawler run for 5 yds to the SDSt 42Similar
Q4 10:13
2ND & 5
OPP 42
+15
99.4%
SAN DIEGO ST Penalty, personal foul (Malik Smith) to the SDSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:13
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+7
99.4%
Khalfani Muhammad run for 7 yds to the SDSt 20Similar
Q4 10:13
2ND & 3
OPP 20
+3
99.4%
Khalfani Muhammad run for 3 yds to the SDSt 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:07
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+17
99.9%
Vic Enwere run for 17 yds for a TD, (Matt Anderson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 23PUNT
6 plays · 20 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 8:02
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+20
99.9%
Christian Chapman pass complete to Eric Judge for 20 yds to the SDSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:02
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
99.9%
Christian Chapman pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:02
2ND & 10
OWN 47
0
99.9%
Christian Chapman pass complete to Christian Cumberlander for no gain to the SDSt 47Similar
Q4 8:02
3RD & 10
OWN 47
0
99.9%
Christian Chapman pass incomplete to Eric JudgeSimilar
Q4 8:02
4TH & 10
OWN 47
0
99.9%
Tanner Blain punt for 44 yds, downed at the Cal 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 24PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 6:27
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+4
99.9%
Jeffrey Coprich run for 4 yds to the Cal 13Similar
Q4 6:27
2ND & 6
OWN 13
+1
99.9%
Jeffrey Coprich run for 1 yd to the Cal 14Similar
Q4 6:27
3RD & 5
OWN 14
0
99.9%
Chase Forrest pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:27
4TH & 5
OWN 14
0
99.9%
Cole Leininger punt for 42 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 25PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 5:09
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
99.9%
Christian Chapman pass incomplete to Mikah HolderSimilar
Q4 5:09
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+1
99.9%
Marcus Stamps run for 1 yd to the SDSt 45Similar
Q4 5:09
4TH & 9
OWN 45
0
99.9%
Tanner Blain punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Trevor Davis at the Cal 8Similar
Q4 5:09
3RD & 9
OWN 45
0
99.9%
Christian Chapman pass incomplete to Christian CumberlanderSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 26PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 4:10
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+4
99.9%
Tre Watson run for 4 yds to the Cal 12Similar
Q4 4:10
2ND & 6
OWN 12
+4
99.9%
Tre Watson run for 4 yds to the Cal 16Similar
Q4 4:10
3RD & 2
OWN 16
+1
99.9%
Tre Watson run for 1 yd to the Cal 17Similar
Q4 4:10
4TH & 1
OWN 17
+2
99.9%
Cole Leininger punt for 41 yds , Lloyd Mills returns for 2 yds to the SDSt 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 27END OF GAME
7 plays · 23 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
100.0%
Christian Chapman pass incomplete to Daniel Brunskill, broken up by Raymond DavisonSimilar
Q4 2:00
2ND & 10
OPP 0
0
99.9%
PENNY, Rashaad rush for 3 yards to the SDSU47 (Downs, Devante), PENALTY SDSU holding off-setting, PENALTY CAL face mask off-setting, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 2:00
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+3
100.0%
Rashaad Penny run for 13 yds to the CALIFORNIA 43 SAN DIEGO ST Penalty, Offensive holding (Christian Cumberlander) to the SDSt 47Similar
Q4 2:00
2ND & 7
OWN 47
0
100.0%
Christian Chapman pass incomplete to Rashaad PennySimilar
Q4 2:00
3RD & 7
OWN 47
+7
100.0%
Rashaad Penny run for 7 yds to the Cal 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:00
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+4
100.0%
Rashaad Penny run for 4 yds to the Cal 42Similar
Q4 2:00
2ND & 6
OPP 42
+9
100.0%
Marcus Stamps run for 9 yds to the Cal 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 14:50
Jared Goff pass complete to Trevor Davis for 75 yds for a TD, (Matt Anderson KICK)
+9
TD · Q2 0:11
Jared Goff pass complete to Maurice Harris for 13 yds for a TD, (Matt Anderson KICK)
+8.5
TD · Q3 2:59
Daniel Lasco run for 3 yds for a TD, (Matt Anderson KICK)
+8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com