San Diego State

Profile vs. FBS, 2021

Farther out is better on every spoke. Dashed ring: the FBS median.

• EPA per play

  Expected points added on an average snap: how much each play moved the scoring odds.
  Offense+0.0926th
  Defense−0.0193rd
• Success rate

  Share of snaps that stayed on schedule: half the yards needed on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of them on 3rd or 4th.
  Offense39.4%19th
  Defense36.0%95th
• Explosiveness

  Average EPA on the successful snaps: how big the good plays were.
  Offense+1.2336th
  Defense+1.1980th
• Rushing EPA

  EPA per designed run.
  Offense+0.1040th
  Defense−0.1399th
• Passing EPA

  EPA per pass play.
  Offense+0.1222nd
  Defense+0.1181st
• Standard downs

  Success rate on downs where either a run or a pass makes sense, like 1st and 10 or 3rd and 2.
  Offense45.0%19th
  Defense41.1%96th
• Passing downs

  Success rate on downs that all but force a pass, like 2nd and 8 or longer, or 3rd and 5 or longer.
  Offense27.8%17th
  Defense27.0%81st
• Line yards

  Rushing yards per carry credited to the offensive line, weighting the first few yards most.
  Offense2.9635th
  Defense2.6393rd
• Stuff rate

  Share of runs stopped at or behind the line of scrimmage.
  Offense18.8%26th
  Defense23.2%97th
• Havoc

  Share of snaps with a tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception or pass breakup.
  Offense15.1%60th
  Defense19.7%88th

Percentiles among the 130 FBS teams this season, where higher is better for the offense and the defense alike (a defense's numbers are what it allowed). The line in each bar is the FBS median. Garbage time excluded. Source: CollegeFootballData.

Drives vs. expectation, 2021

Every snap has an expected-points value: what a drive from that spot, down and distance is worth on average. A drive over expected beat its starting spot; defense counts what San Diego State allowed, so lower is better. The adjusted number fits every team against the opponents it actually played, so it leans toward average early in a season. Ranks are among FBS teams.

Game by game

1. W
   NMSU
2. W
   ARIZ
3. W
   UTAH
4. W
   TOW
5. W
   UNM
6. W
   SJSU
7. W
   AF
8. L
   FRES
9. W
   HAW
10. W
    NEV
11. W
    UNLV
12. W
    BOIS
13. L
    USU
14. W
    UTSA

Bars above the line: better than expected for San Diego State.

Players, 2021

1. Lucas JohnsonQB239 plays · +0.174 pts/play · 102nd of 219 QBs
   0.78WAR0.36 to 1.18
2. Greg BellRB202 plays · +0.193 pts/play · 31st of 387 RBs
   0.73WAR0.52 to 0.92
3. Jordon BrookshireQB132 plays · +0.181 pts/play · 138th of 219 QBs
   0.45WAR0.21 to 0.67
4. Matt AraizaPK89 plays · +0.201 pts/play · 1st of 128 kickers
   0.33WAR0.19 to 0.50
5. Jesse MatthewsWR56 plays · +0.173 pts/play · 86th of 474 WRs
   0.18WAR0.12 to 0.24
6. Chance BellRB45 plays · +0.174 pts/play · 252nd of 387 RBs
   0.15WAR0.10 to 0.19
7. Elijah KotheWR34 plays · +0.180 pts/play · 195th of 474 WRs
   0.11WAR0.08 to 0.14
8. Kaegun WilliamsRB36 plays · +0.161 pts/play · 283rd of 387 RBs
   0.11WAR0.08 to 0.14

By position group, against FBS

Linemen and defenders are valued as units, in points per game against the median FBS unit, because play-by-play doesn't say who was on the field. Players are valued against a replacement-level backup, so the two aren't added together.

Wins above replacement credits each play's expected points to the players involved, adjusted for the opponent, and compares San Diego State's players with a typical backup; 53 points make a win. Only snaps while the game was in doubt count, so a starter on a team that blows opponents out plays fewer of them: read value per play beside WAR. The line under each player (or the range on a phone) is the 90% interval. Ranks are among FBS teams and players. How this works

What it had and what it did, 2021

• Roster talent

  247Sports' talent composite: the recruiting ratings of every player on the roster, transfers included.
  44244295th of 130Roster talent: 442, 95th of 130 in FBS
• Recruiting

  Average 247Sports class score over this season's class and the three before it.
  15515578th of 130Recruiting: 155, 78th of 130 in FBS
• Returning production

  Share of last season's production (expected points added) by players still on the roster.
  86%86%37th of 128Returning production: 86%, 37th of 128 in FBS
• SP+ rating

  The result: Bill Connelly's opponent-adjusted rating, points per game better than an average FBS team.
  +8.3+8.350th of 130SP+ rating: +8.3, 50th of 130 in FBS

Ranks and bars among the 130 FBS teams with a talent rating this season, best first; the line in each bar is the FBS median.

Talent conversion

Conversion by season

Fourth-down calls vs. the numbers, 2021

Each real fourth down is valued three ways (go for it, kick, punt) from the score, clock and field position before the snap, using league-wide odds rather than San Diego State's own. A call that differs gives up the gap to the best option; gaps under one point are close calls, and the 7 clear-cut ones account for 0.10 of the 0.18 expected wins. The model sees the situation, not the injury report, so a call it disagrees with can still be right. Ranks are among FBS teams; 1st gave up the least.

Costliest calls against the numbers

1. vs BOISQ4 9:05 4th & 1 at SDSU 30, up 11Punted; the numbers favored going for it−2.2 pts
2. vs FRESQ4 11:53 4th & 3 at FRES 43, down 10Punted; the numbers favored going for it−1.8 pts
3. at AFQ4 10:32 4th & 4 at AF 40, up 13Punted; the numbers favored going for it−1.7 pts
4. at HAWQ2 7:11 4th & 3 at HAW 36, up 7Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it−1.3 pts
5. vs NEVQ2 0:00 4th & 5 at NEV 38, up 3Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it−1.2 pts
6. vs UTAHQ4 14:55 4th & 3 at UTAH 31, up 14Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it−1.2 pts
7. at HAWQ3 13:31 4th & 4 at HAW 42, up 7Punted; the numbers favored going for it−1.1 pts
8. at HAWQ3 10:56 4th & 4 at midfield, up 7Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.9 pts

Record vs. expectation, 2021

7th of 130 FBS teams at beating the model's pregame expectations

Expected wins adds up San Diego State's chance of winning each game as the model saw it at kickoff - a 70% favorite counts 0.7.

1. W

   NMSU
2. W

   ARIZ
3. W

   UTAH
4. W

   TOW
5. W

   UNM
6. W

   SJSU
7. W

   AF
8. L

   FRES
9. W

   HAW
10. W

    NEV
11. W

    UNLV
12. W

    BOIS
13. L

    USU
14. W

    UTSA

What moved it, 2021

Every game starts at San Diego State's pregame chance; everything after that is the field. The model's own breakdown of each game's final play splits the on-field part by what drove it, and the parts add up exactly. How it works →

• Scoreboard+1.45
• Possession & field position+0.04
• Clock+0.22
• Timeouts+0.08
• Less the pregame edge, counted before kickoff−0.45

Game by game

• NMSUW 28-10 vs NMSU96% → 98%Before kickoff +46 · On the field +3: Scoreboard +9
• ARIZW 38-14 at ARIZ49% → 99%Before kickoff −1 · On the field +50: Scoreboard +54, Clock +1
• UTAHW 33-31 vs UTAH34% → 60%Before kickoff −16 · On the field +26: Timeouts −25, Clock +16
• TOWW 48-21 vs TOW94% → 100%Before kickoff +44 · On the field +6: Scoreboard +8
• UNMW 31-7 vs UNM89% → 100%Before kickoff +39 · On the field +10: Scoreboard +15
• SJSUW 19-13 at SJSU76% → 29%Before kickoff +26 · On the field −47: Scoreboard −41, Timeouts +28
• AFW 20-14 at AF43% → 96%Before kickoff −7 · On the field +52: Scoreboard +52, Clock +3
• FRESL 20-30 vs FRES41% → 2%Before kickoff −9 · On the field −39: Scoreboard −45, Clock −2
• HAWW 17-10 at HAW73% → 86%Before kickoff +23 · On the field +12: Scoreboard +34, Timeouts +1
• NEVW 23-21 vs NEV55% → 72%Before kickoff +5 · On the field +16: Scoreboard +7, Timeouts +1
• UNLVW 28-20 at UNLV78% → 97%Before kickoff +28 · On the field +19: Scoreboard +32, Clock +2
• BOISW 27-16 vs BOIS41% → 97%Before kickoff −9 · On the field +56: Scoreboard +42, Timeouts +2
• USUL 13-46 vs USU73% → 0%Before kickoff +23 · On the field −73: Scoreboard −67, Possession & field position +1
• UTSAW 38-24 vs UTSA57% → 99%Before kickoff +7 · On the field +42: Scoreboard +38, Timeouts +2

Points of win probability, from San Diego State's side.

Closest call

TOL 14-17 SDSU (2022) - San Diego State dropped to a 13.4% win probability before pulling it out.