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USU

Utah State 46 at San Diego State 13

SDSU
2021 · Week 14 · Dec 4, 2021 · StubHub Center
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Win probability · SDSU
modelSDSU aheadUSU aheadconfidence bandkey playSDSU scoreUSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGTDSAFETYFGTDFGTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 5:06 · Greg Bell run for a loss of 1 yard to the UthSt 13
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+57.0+28.50−28.5−57.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 26Home team on offense+0.6Score differential−0.2Pregame prior+19.0Garbage-time factor−0.3Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 9:06: Derek Wright 5 Yd pass from Logan Bonner (Connor Coles Kick) — USU win probability +8.5 pts (now 43%) (top driver: USU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 4:57: Calvin Tyler Jr. 1 Yd Run (Connor Coles Kick) — USU win probability +9.2 pts (now 57%) (top driver: USU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 13:09: Brandon Bowling 58 Yd pass from Logan Bonner (Connor Coles Kick) — USU win probability +17.4 pts (now 75%) (top driver: USU has the ball).
  4. FG · Q3 6:58: Matt Araiza 36 Yd Field Goal — SDSU win probability +7.5 pts (now 26%) (top driver: SDSU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 1:54: Brandon Bowling 18 Yd pass from Logan Bonner (Connor Coles PAT blocked) — USU win probability +9.9 pts (now 96%) (top driver: USU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
SDSU made the numbers' call on 8 of 10USU made the numbers' call on 6 of 8
  1. Q1 13:24SDSU 4th & 5 at SDSU 32, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 67.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.8%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    67.9%
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:48USU 4th & 1 at USU 46, tied
    Close callPunted · 32.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.4%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.3%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 10:17SDSU 4th & 8 at SDSU 26, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 67.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.2%−0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    67.3%
    average punt
  4. Q1 9:34USU 4th & 7 at USU 36, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 32.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.3%−0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.4%
    average punt
  5. Q1 5:06SDSU 4th & 1 at USU 12, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 67.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    67.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    66.6%−0.4
    86% to make
    Punt
    65.2%−1.9
    average punt
  6. Q1 4:27USU 4th & 6 at USU 17, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 32.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.6%−0.2
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.9%
    average punt
  7. Q1 3:26SDSU 4th & 7 at USU 49, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 66.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.5%−0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    66.6%
    average punt
  8. Q1 0:29USU 4th & 12 at SDSU 29, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 34.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.9%−0.4
    23% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    34.3%
    58% to make
    Punt
    32.6%−1.7
    average punt
  9. Q2 13:35SDSU 4th & 13 at SDSU 26, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 64.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.3%−0.9
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    65.2%
    average punt
  10. Q2 12:15USU 4th & 1 at SDSU 44, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 36.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    36.1%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    34.3%−1.8
    27% to make
    Punt
    34.9%−1.2
    average punt
  11. Q2 6:28SDSU 4th & 7 at USU 37, down 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 54.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.3%
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    53.6%−0.7
    40% to make
    Punt
    53.2%−1.1
    average punt
  12. Q2 1:01SDSU 4th & 6 at USU 6, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 39.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.5%−0.5
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    39.0%
    91% to make
    Punt
    34.2%−4.8
    average punt
  13. Q3 5:19USU 4th & 4 at USU 31, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 80.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.6%−1.2
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    82.8%
    average punt
  14. Q4 13:40USU 4th & 3 at SDSU 3, up 23
    Close callKicked a field goal · 96.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.5%
    44% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    96.0%−0.5
    93% to make
    Punt
    93.4%−3.1
    average punt
  15. Q4 12:22SDSU 4th & 4 at SDSU 40, down 26
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.0%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.9%−0.1
    average punt
  16. Q4 10:21USU 4th & 3 at SDSU 9, up 26
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.1%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    98.9%−0.2
    89% to make
    Punt
    97.5%−1.6
    average punt
  17. Q4 1:09SDSU 4th & 2 at USU 41, down 33
    Close callWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.1%−<0.1
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    0.1%−<0.1
    32% to make
    Punt
    0.1%
    average punt
  18. Q4 0:00SDSU 4th & 9 at USU 9, down 33
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.1%
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    0.1%−<0.1
    89% to make
    Punt
    0.1%−<0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
SDSU made the numbers' call on 1 of 1USU made the numbers' call on 5 of 6
  1. Q2 9:06USU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    43.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    42.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 4:57USU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    55.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    55.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 13:09USU Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    71.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    71.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 1:54USU Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    95.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 10:21USU Touchdown, up 32 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 6:22SDSU Touchdown, down 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 3:58USU Touchdown, up 32 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
SDSUDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 1:3073% → 72%
Q1 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+4
72.6%
Greg Bell run for 4 yds to the SDSt 31Similar
Q1 14:20
2ND & 6
OWN 31
+1
72.5%
Greg Bell run for 1 yd to the SDSt 32Similar
Q1 13:46
3RD & 5
OWN 32
0
72.4%
Jordon Brookshire pass incomplete to Jesse MatthewsSimilar
Q1 13:24
4TH & 5
OWN 32
+21
72.3%
Matt Araiza punt for 57 yds , Jordan Nathan returns for 21 yds to the SANDIEGOST 47 SAN DIEGO ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (-15 Yards) to the UthSt 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:3628% → 28%
Q1 13:24
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+2
72.3%
Logan Bonner pass complete to Deven Thompkins for 2 yds to the UthSt 39Similar
Q1 12:47
2ND & 8
OWN 39
+6
72.1%
Logan Bonner pass complete to Deven Thompkins for 6 yds to the UthSt 45Similar
Q1 12:21
3RD & 2
OWN 45
+1
71.9%
Calvin Tyler Jr. run for 1 yd to the UthSt 46Similar
Q1 11:48
4TH & 1
OWN 46
+13
71.9%
Stephen Kotsanlee punt for 43 yds , Jordan Byrd returns for 13 yds to the SDSt 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 1:3172% → 71%
Q1 11:48
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+2
72.1%
Jordon Brookshire run for 2 yds to the SDSt 26Similar
Q1 11:17
2ND & 8
OWN 26
0
71.9%
Jordon Brookshire run for no gain to the SDSt 26Similar
Q1 10:36
3RD & 8
OWN 26
0
71.6%
Jordon Brookshire pass incomplete to Isaiah RichardsonSimilar
Q1 10:17
4TH & 8
OWN 26
0
71.4%
Matt Araiza punt for 41 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the UthSt 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:4328% → 28%
Q1 10:17
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
71.6%
Logan Bonner pass incomplete to Derek WrightSimilar
Q1 10:09
2ND & 10
OWN 33
+3
71.6%
Logan Bonner pass complete to Brandon Bowling for 3 yds to the UthSt 36Similar
Q1 9:51
3RD & 7
OWN 36
0
71.6%
Logan Bonner pass incomplete to Brandon BowlingSimilar
Q1 9:34
4TH & 7
OWN 36
+14
71.8%
Stephen Kotsanlee punt for 45 yds , Jordan Byrd returns for 14 yds to the SDSt 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 5DOWNS
9 plays · 54 yds · 4:2872% → 71%
Q1 9:34
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+15
71.7%
Jordon Brookshire pass complete to Jesse Matthews for 15 yds to the SDSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:01
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+2
72.0%
Jordon Brookshire pass complete to Kaegun Williams for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 8:29
2ND & 8
50
+10
71.9%
Jordon Brookshire pass complete to Jesse Matthews for 10 yds to the UthSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:55
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+3
71.9%
Kaegun Williams run for 3 yds to the UthSt 37Similar
Q1 7:13
2ND & 7
OPP 37
+16
71.8%
Jordon Brookshire pass complete to Jesse Matthews for 16 yds to the UthSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:31
1ST & 10
OPP 21
0
71.8%
Jordon Brookshire pass incomplete to Elijah KotheSimilar
Q1 6:23
2ND & 10
OPP 21
+7
71.8%
Jordon Brookshire run for 7 yds to the UthSt 14Similar
Q1 5:47
3RD & 3
OPP 14
+2
71.5%
Greg Bell run for 2 yds to the UthSt 12Similar
Q1 5:06
4TH & 1
OPP 12
-1
71.0%
Greg Bell run for a loss of 1 yard to the UthSt 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:3930% → 29%
Q1 5:06
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+4
70.5%
Elelyon Noa run for 4 yds to the UthSt 17Similar
Q1 4:44
2ND & 6
OWN 17
0
70.4%
Logan Bonner pass incomplete to Justin McGriffSimilar
Q1 4:36
3RD & 6
OWN 17
0
70.7%
Logan Bonner pass incomplete to Derek WrightSimilar
Q1 4:27
4TH & 6
OWN 17
0
71.0%
Stephen Kotsanlee punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Jordan Byrd at the SDSt 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 7PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 1:0171% → 70%
Q1 4:27
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+1
71.3%
Jordan Byrd run for 1 yd to the SDSt 49Similar
Q1 4:09
2ND & 9
OWN 49
+2
71.2%
Jordon Brookshire pass complete to Jordan Byrd for 2 yds to the UthSt 49Similar
Q1 3:42
3RD & 7
OPP 49
0
71.0%
Jordon Brookshire pass incomplete to Jesse MatthewsSimilar
Q1 3:26
4TH & 7
OPP 49
0
70.2%
Matt Araiza punt for 49 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 8MISSED FG
8 plays · 51 yds · 2:5730% → 31%
Q1 3:26
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+41
70.0%
Logan Bonner pass complete to Brandon Bowling for 41 yds to the SDSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:50
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+2
68.8%
Elelyon Noa run for 2 yds to the SDSt 37Similar
Q1 2:18
2ND & 8
OPP 37
0
68.3%
Logan Bonner pass incomplete to Derek WrightSimilar
Q1 2:09
3RD & 8
OPP 37
+10
68.4%
Logan Bonner pass complete to Brandon Bowling for 10 yds to the SDSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:53
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+3
67.7%
Elelyon Noa run for 3 yds to the SDSt 24Similar
Q1 1:21
2ND & 7
OPP 24
0
67.5%
Logan Bonner pass incomplete to Deven ThompkinsSimilar
Q1 1:14
3RD & 7
OPP 24
-5
68.1%
Logan Bonner sacked by Keshawn Banks for a loss of 5 yards to the SDSt 29Similar
Q1 0:29
4TH & 12
OPP 29
+46
69.2%
Connor Coles 46 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 9PUNT
4 plays · -3 yds · 1:2570% → 68%
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 29
-9
69.8%
Jordon Brookshire sacked by Nick Heninger for a loss of 9 yards to the SDSt 20Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 19
OWN 20
+9
69.5%
Greg Bell run for 9 yds to the SDSt 29Similar
Q2 14:26
3RD & 10
OWN 29
-3
68.9%
Jordon Brookshire sacked by Byron Vaughns for a loss of 3 yards to the SDSt 26Similar
Q2 13:35
4TH & 13
OWN 26
0
68.2%
Matt Araiza punt for 27 yds, downed at the UthSt 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 10TD
10 plays · 53 yds · 4:2933% → 43%
Q2 13:35
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
67.1%
Calvin Tyler Jr. run for no gain to the UthSt 47Similar
Q2 12:59
2ND & 10
OWN 47
0
67.2%
Logan Bonner pass incomplete to Derek WrightSimilar
Q2 12:51
3RD & 10
OWN 47
+9
67.8%
Logan Bonner pass complete to Justin McGriff for 9 yds to the SDSt 44Similar
Q2 12:15
4TH & 1
OPP 44
+5
67.4%
Logan Bonner pass complete to Deven Thompkins for 5 yds to the SDSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:46
1ST & 10
OPP 39
-1
66.3%
Calvin Tyler Jr. run for a loss of 1 yard to the SDSt 40Similar
Q2 11:23
2ND & 11
OPP 40
+22
66.1%
Logan Bonner pass complete to Calvin Tyler Jr. for 7 yds to the SDSt 33 for a 1ST down SAN DIEGO ST Penalty, Personal Foul (Patrick McMorris) to the SDSt 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:02
1ST & 10
OPP 18
-1
65.3%
Calvin Tyler Jr. run for a loss of 1 yard to the SDSt 19Similar
Q2 10:26
2ND & 11
OPP 19
+2
65.3%
Logan Bonner pass complete to Derek Wright for 2 yds to the SDSt 17Similar
Q2 9:51
3RD & 9
OPP 17
+12
65.6%
Logan Bonner run for 12 yds to the SDSt 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:06
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
57.1%
Derek Wright 5 Yd pass from Logan Bonner (Connor Coles Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 11MISSED FG
7 plays · 27 yds · 2:3160% → 58%
Q2 8:59
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+8
60.3%
Greg Bell run for 8 yds to the SDSt 44Similar
Q2 8:21
2ND & 2
OWN 44
+16
61.3%
Greg Bell run for 16 yds to the UthSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:49
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-4
60.5%
Greg Bell run for a loss of 4 yards to the UthSt 44Similar
Q2 7:11
2ND & 14
OPP 44
+7
58.8%
Jordon Brookshire pass complete to Elijah Kothe for 7 yds to the UthSt 37Similar
Q2 6:42
3RD & 7
OPP 37
0
59.6%
Jordon Brookshire pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:28
4TH & 7
OPP 37
+54
57.7%
Matt Araiza 54 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 12TD
7 plays · 63 yds · 1:3145% → 57%
Q2 6:28
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+15
55.1%
Logan Bonner pass complete to Derek Wright for 15 yds to the SDSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:17
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-1
53.8%
Calvin Tyler Jr. run for a loss of 1 yard to the SDSt 49Similar
Q2 5:47
2ND & 11
OPP 49
0
53.5%
Logan Bonner pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:39
3RD & 11
OPP 49
+16
54.1%
Logan Bonner pass complete to Brandon Bowling for 16 yds to the SDSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:23
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+15
52.8%
Bonner, Logan pass incomplete to Wright, Derek, PENALTY SANDIEGOST roughing passer (Thomas, Cameron) 15 yards to the SANDIEGOST18, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN UTAHST.Similar
Q2 5:14
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+17
52.5%
Calvin Tyler Jr. run for 17 yds to the SDSt 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:57
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
43.3%
Calvin Tyler Jr. 1 Yd Run (Connor Coles Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 13FG
13 plays · 77 yds · 3:5245% → 48%
Q2 4:53
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+10
45.2%
Jordon Brookshire pass complete to BJ Busbee for 10 yds to the SDSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:28
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+6
45.1%
Jordon Brookshire pass complete to Jesse Matthews for 6 yds to the SDSt 33Similar
Q2 4:04
2ND & 4
OWN 33
+25
45.4%
Jordon Brookshire pass complete to Elijah Kothe for 25 yds to the UthSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:24
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+2
46.1%
Chance Bell run for 2 yds to the UthSt 40Similar
Q2 2:55
2ND & 8
OPP 40
+10
45.5%
Jordon Brookshire run for 10 yds to the UthSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:19
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+18
45.1%
Jordon Brookshire pass complete to Jesse Matthews for 18 yds to the UthSt 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:01
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+7
45.2%
Brookshire, Jordon pass incomplete to Kothe, Elijah, PENALTY UTAHST pass interference (Bond, Shaq) 7 yards to the UTAHST5, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN SANDIEGOST.Similar
Q2 1:58
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
-5
45.1%
Jordon Brookshire sacked by AJ Vongphachanh for a loss of 5 yards to the UthSt 10Similar
Q2 1:26
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
+4
44.5%
Jordon Brookshire run for 4 yds to the UthSt 6Similar
Q2 1:08
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
0
43.1%
Jordon Brookshire pass incomplete to Mekhi ShawSimilar
Q2 1:01
4TH & GOAL
OPP 6
+23
48.2%
Matt Araiza 23 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 14DOWNS
9 plays · 41 yds · 1:0055% → 59%
Q2 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
45.2%
Elelyon Noa run for 11 yds to the UthSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:44
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+15
44.5%
Logan Bonner pass complete to Derek Wright for 15 yds to the SDSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:22
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+7
42.6%
Logan Bonner pass complete to Deven Thompkins for 7 yds to the SDSt 42Similar
Q2 0:15
2ND & 3
OPP 42
+8
40.5%
Logan Bonner pass complete to Derek Wright for 8 yds to the SDSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:07
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
40.2%
TEAM pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:05
2ND & 10
OPP 34
0
40.2%
Logan Bonner pass incomplete to Deven ThompkinsSimilar
Q2 0:00
3RD & 10
OPP 34
+51
40.6%
Connor Coles 51 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 15TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 1:5055% → 75%
Q3 14:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
45.2%
Logan Bonner pass complete to Deven Thompkins for 9 yds to the UthSt 34Similar
Q3 14:40
2ND & 1
OWN 34
0
44.2%
Calvin Tyler Jr. run for no gain to the UthSt 34Similar
Q3 14:04
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+4
44.3%
Logan Bonner pass complete to Carson Terrell for 4 yds to the UthSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:40
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+4
42.3%
Logan Bonner pass complete to Deven Thompkins for 4 yds to the UthSt 42Similar
Q3 13:09
2ND & 6
OWN 42
+58
25.0%
Brandon Bowling 58 Yd pass from Logan Bonner (Connor Coles Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 16SF
5 plays · 1 yds · 1:1828% → 22%
Q3 12:56
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+3
27.9%
Greg Bell run for 3 yds to the SDSt 18Similar
Q3 12:31
2ND & 7
OWN 18
-2
27.3%
Jordon Brookshire sacked by Marcus Moore for a loss of 2 yards to the SDSt 16Similar
Q3 11:53
3RD & 9
OWN 16
0
26.3%
Jordon Brookshire pass incomplete to Greg BellSimilar
Q3 11:38
4TH & 9
OWN 16
0
22.0%
Team SafetySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 17INT
7 plays · 10 yds · 1:3683% → 85%
Q3 11:31
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+5
16.7%
Logan Bonner pass complete to Brandon Bowling for 5 yds to the UthSt 34Similar
Q3 11:08
2ND & 5
OWN 34
0
16.5%
Calvin Tyler Jr. run for no gain to the UthSt 34Similar
Q3 10:44
3RD & 5
OWN 34
+15
15.8%
Bonner, Logan pass incomplete to Bowling, Brandon, PENALTY SANDIEGOST roughing passer (Shawcroft, Michael) 15 yards to the UTAHST49, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN UTAHST.Similar
Q3 10:31
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-10
14.6%
Tyler Jr., Calvin rush for 5 yards to the SANDIEGOST46, PENALTY UTAHST holding (Terrell, Carson) 10 yards to the UTAHST39, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 10:09
1ST & 20
OWN 39
0
14.9%
Logan Bonner pass incomplete to Deven ThompkinsSimilar
Q3 9:55
2ND & 20
OWN 39
-40
14.6%
Logan Bonner pass intercepted Patrick McMorris return for 25 yds to the SANDIEGOST 36 SAN DIEGO ST Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (Keshawn Banks) to the UthSt 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 18FG
10 plays · 21 yds · 2:5723% → 26%
Q3 9:55
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+14
22.5%
Greg Bell run for 14 yds to the UthSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:26
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+1
23.0%
Jordon Brookshire run for 1 yd to the UthSt 25Similar
Q3 8:42
2ND & 9
OPP 25
+7
22.0%
Chance Bell run for 7 yds to the UthSt 18Similar
Q3 8:08
3RD & 2
OPP 18
0
21.2%
Jordon Brookshire pass incomplete to BJ BusbeeSimilar
Q3 8:01
4TH & 2
OPP 18
+15
20.9%
Brookshire, Jordon pass incomplete to Kothe, Elijah, PENALTY UTAHST pass interference (Lampkin, Cam) 15 yards to the UTAHST3, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN SANDIEGOST.Similar
Q3 7:58
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
-1
26.2%
Chance Bell run for a loss of 1 yard to the UthSt 4Similar
Q3 7:24
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
-15
22.3%
Brookshire, Jordon pass incomplete to Dedeaux, Ethan, PENALTY SANDIEGOST pass interference (Matthews, Jesse) 15 yards to the UTAHST19, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 7:13
2ND & GOAL
OPP 19
0
19.7%
Jordon Brookshire pass incomplete to BJ BusbeeSimilar
Q3 7:09
3RD & GOAL
OPP 19
0
18.6%
Jordon Brookshire pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 6:58
4TH & 0
OPP 19
+36
26.1%
Matt Araiza 36 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 19FUMBLE
5 plays · 6 yds · 1:3878% → 80%
Q3 6:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
22.3%
Elelyon Noa run for 2 yds to the UthSt 27Similar
Q3 6:36
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+4
21.2%
Logan Bonner pass complete to Deven Thompkins for 4 yds to the UthSt 31Similar
Q3 6:04
3RD & 4
OWN 31
0
21.1%
Logan Bonner pass complete to Deven Thompkins for no gain to the UthSt 31Similar
Q3 5:19
4TH & 4
OWN 31
+33
20.3%
Stephen Kotsanlee punt for 33 yds , Jordan Byrd returns for a loss of 1 yard to the SDSt 35 Jordan Byrd fumbled, recovered by UthSt Jaden SmithSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 20TD
6 plays · 35 yds · 3:2582% → 96%
Q3 5:19
1ST & 10
OPP 35
-9
18.0%
Logan Bonner sacked by Jonah Tavai for a loss of 9 yards to the SDSt 44Similar
Q3 4:34
2ND & 19
OPP 44
+8
17.5%
Logan Bonner pass complete to Elelyon Noa for 8 yds to the SDSt 36Similar
Q3 3:48
3RD & 11
OPP 36
+12
16.4%
Logan Bonner pass complete to Derek Wright for 12 yds to the SDSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:26
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+9
15.3%
Logan Bonner pass complete to Deven Thompkins for 9 yds to the SDSt 15Similar
Q3 2:52
2ND & 1
OPP 15
-3
14.5%
Deven Thompkins run for a loss of 3 yards to the SDSt 18Similar
Q3 1:54
3RD & 4
OPP 18
+18
4.5%
Brandon Bowling 18 Yd pass from Logan Bonner (Connor Coles PAT blocked)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 21FUMBLE
2 plays · -2 yds · 0:006% → 6%
Q3 1:39
1ST & 10
OWN 22
-2
6.2%
Greg Bell run for a loss of 2 yards to the SDSt 20 Greg Bell fumbled, recovered by UthSt Marcus MooreSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 22FG
7 plays · 17 yds · 2:5996% → 98%
Q3 1:39
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+7
4.4%
Calvin Tyler Jr. run for 7 yds to the SDSt 13Similar
Q3 0:58
2ND & 3
OPP 13
+2
4.1%
Calvin Tyler Jr. run for 2 yds to the SDSt 11Similar
Q3 0:00
3RD & 1
OPP 11
+4
3.9%
Calvin Tyler Jr. run for 4 yds to the SDSt 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+1
3.8%
Calvin Tyler Jr. run for 1 yd to the SDSt 6Similar
Q4 14:32
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
0
3.6%
Logan Bonner pass incomplete to Josh SterzerSimilar
Q4 14:24
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
+3
3.6%
Logan Bonner pass complete to Brandon Bowling for 3 yds to the SDSt 3Similar
Q4 13:40
4TH & GOAL
OPP 3
+20
1.6%
Connor Coles 20 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 23DOWNS
5 plays · 6 yds · 1:102% → 1%
Q4 13:32
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
1.6%
Jordon Brookshire run for no gain to the SDSt 34Similar
Q4 13:04
2ND & 10
OWN 34
0
1.3%
Jordon Brookshire pass incomplete to Jesse MatthewsSimilar
Q4 12:53
3RD & 10
OWN 34
+6
1.0%
Jordon Brookshire pass complete to Jesse Matthews for 6 yds to the SDSt 40Similar
Q4 12:22
4TH & 4
OWN 40
0
1.0%
Jordon Brookshire pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 24TD
5 plays · 40 yds · 2:0199% → 99%
Q4 12:22
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+24
1.1%
Logan Bonner pass complete to Justin McGriff for 24 yds to the SDSt 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:40
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+1
0.9%
Elelyon Noa run for 1 yd to the SDSt 15Similar
Q4 11:07
2ND & 9
OPP 15
0
0.9%
Logan Bonner pass incomplete to Carson TerrellSimilar
Q4 11:01
3RD & 9
OPP 15
+6
0.9%
Elelyon Noa run for 6 yds to the SDSt 9Similar
Q4 10:21
4TH & 3
OPP 9
+9
0.6%
Justin McGriff 9 Yd pass from Logan Bonner (Connor Coles Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 25TD
9 plays · 80 yds · 3:520% → 0%
Q4 10:14
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+27
0.4%
Chance Bell run for 27 yds to the SDSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:44
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+1
0.4%
Chance Bell run for 1 yd to the SDSt 48Similar
Q4 9:11
2ND & 9
OWN 48
+11
0.3%
Jalen Mayden pass complete to BJ Busbee for 11 yds to the UthSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:43
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+13
0.3%
Jalen Mayden pass complete to BJ Busbee for 13 yds to the UthSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:16
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+6
0.3%
Jalen Mayden pass complete to Jesse Matthews for 6 yds to the UthSt 22Similar
Q4 7:42
2ND & 4
OPP 22
+3
0.3%
Chance Bell run for 3 yds to the UthSt 19Similar
Q4 7:03
3RD & 1
OPP 19
+14
0.3%
Jalen Mayden run for 14 yds to the UthSt 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:22
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
0.4%
Jesse Matthews 5 Yd pass from Jalen Mayden (Matt Araiza Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 26TD
6 plays · 38 yds · 2:20100% → 100%
Q4 6:18
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+5
0.4%
Calvin Tyler Jr. run for 5 yds to the SDSt 33Similar
Q4 5:37
2ND & 5
OPP 33
+3
0.4%
Calvin Tyler Jr. run for 3 yds to the SDSt 30Similar
Q4 4:50
3RD & 2
OPP 30
+3
0.3%
Calvin Tyler Jr. run for 3 yds to the SDSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:58
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
0.2%
Jordan Nathan 0 Yd Run (Connor Coles Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 27DOWNS
11 plays · 51 yds · 3:540% → 0%
Q4 3:54
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+4
0.1%
Jaylon Armstead run for 4 yds to the SDSt 36Similar
Q4 3:23
2ND & 6
OWN 36
+15
0.1%
Jalen Mayden pass complete to Darius De Los Reyes for 15 yds to the UthSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:57
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+1
0.1%
Jaylon Armstead run for 1 yd to the UthSt 48Similar
Q4 2:17
2ND & 9
OPP 48
+4
0.1%
Jaylon Armstead run for 4 yds to the UthSt 44Similar
Q4 1:42
3RD & 5
OPP 44
+3
0.1%
Jaylon Armstead run for 3 yds to the UthSt 41Similar
Q4 1:09
4TH & 2
OPP 41
+33
0.1%
Jalen Mayden run for 33 yds to the UthSt 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:59
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
0
0.1%
Jalen Mayden pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:54
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
-3
0.1%
Jalen Mayden run for a loss of 3 yards to the UthSt 11 Jalen Mayden fumbled, recovered by SDSt Jalen MaydenSimilar
Q4 0:38
3RD & GOAL
OPP 11
+2
0.1%
Jaylon Armstead run for 2 yds to the UthSt 9Similar
Q4 0:00
4TH & GOAL
OPP 9
-8
0.1%
Jalen Mayden sacked by Justin Rice for a loss of 8 yards to the UthSt 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 13:09
Brandon Bowling 58 Yd pass from Logan Bonner (Connor Coles Kick)
-17.4
TD · Q3 1:54
Brandon Bowling 18 Yd pass from Logan Bonner (Connor Coles PAT blocked)
-9.9
TD · Q2 4:57
Calvin Tyler Jr. 1 Yd Run (Connor Coles Kick)
-9.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com