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BOIS

Boise State 16 at San Diego State 27

SDSU
2021 · Week 13 · Nov 26, 2021 · StubHub Center
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Win probability · SDSU
modelSDSU aheadBOIS aheadconfidence bandkey playSDSU scoreBOIS score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDFGTDFGTDTDEnd of GameFG+1.8SDSU 43.2%Matt Araiza 31 yd FG GOODAWAY 7 - HOME 3 · Q1 1:10
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 1:10 · Matt Araiza 31 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+29.0+14.50−14.5−29.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 41Home team on offense−0.6Pregame prior−6.9Garbage-time factor−0.4Score differential−0.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.4Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 11:45: Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Khalil Shakir for 13 yds for a TD (Jonah Dalmas PAT MISSED) — BOIS win probability +5.5 pts (now 64%) (top driver: BOIS has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 1:30: Jordon Brookshire pass complete to Jesse Matthews for 29 yds for a TD (Matt Araiza KICK) — SDSU win probability +10.6 pts (now 43%) (top driver: Game still competitive relative to time left).
  3. FG · Q2 0:03: Matt Araiza 37 yd FG GOOD — SDSU win probability +3.5 pts (now 48%) (top driver: SDSU +2 timeouts on the defense).
  4. TD · Q3 9:26: Greg Bell run for 2 yds for a TD (Matt Araiza KICK) — SDSU win probability +15.0 pts (now 62%) (top driver: SDSU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 7:46: Jordon Brookshire run for 16 yds for a TD (Matt Araiza KICK) — SDSU win probability +12.5 pts (now 78%) (top driver: SDSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
SDSU made the numbers' call on 8 of 14BOIS made the numbers' call on 8 of 10
  1. Q1 13:48BOIS 4th & 5 at BOIS 30, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 56.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.0%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    56.0%
    average punt
  2. Q1 12:27SDSU 4th & 16 at SDSU 28, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 44.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.0%−0.2
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    44.2%
    average punt
  3. Q1 12:27SDSU 4th & 16 at SDSU 28, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 44.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.0%−0.2
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    44.2%
    average punt
  4. Q1 11:41BOIS 4th & 5 at BOIS 16, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 55.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.1%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    55.2%
    average punt
  5. Q1 8:06SDSU 4th & 5 at BOIS 31, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 45.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.8%
    41% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    45.7%−<0.1
    54% to make
    Punt
    45.5%−0.2
    average punt
  6. Q1 8:06SDSU 4th & 5 at BOIS 31, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 45.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.8%
    41% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    45.7%−<0.1
    54% to make
    Punt
    45.5%−0.2
    average punt
  7. Q1 1:10SDSU 4th & 10 at BOIS 14, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 41.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.9%−0.7
    26% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    41.6%
    84% to make
    Punt
    37.5%−4.1
    average punt
  8. Q2 13:58SDSU 4th & 8 at BOIS 39, down 4
    Close callPunted · 45.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.3%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    45.0%−0.3
    36% to make
    PuntTheir call
    45.0%−0.3
    average punt
  9. Q2 10:55SDSU 4th & 8 at SDSU 27, down 10
    Close callWent for it · 36.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    36.1%−0.5
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    36.6%
    average punt
  10. Q2 8:39BOIS 4th & 2 at SDSU 5, up 10
    Close callKicked a field goal · 62.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.0%
    51% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    61.3%−0.7
    92% to make
    Punt
    57.7%−4.3
    average punt
  11. Q2 5:43SDSU 4th & 5 at BOIS 48, down 13
    Close callPunted · 32.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.5%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.4%−0.1
    average punt
  12. Q2 3:04BOIS 4th & 3 at midfield, up 13
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.6 ptsPunted · 69.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.8%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    68.2%−1.6
    average punt
  13. Q2 0:28BOIS 4th & 7 at BOIS 44, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 62.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.9%−0.6
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    62.5%
    average punt
  14. Q3 15:00SDSU 4th & 1 at BOIS 49, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 46.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    46.7%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    44.5%−2.3
    average punt
  15. Q3 9:26SDSU 4th & 1 at BOIS 2, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 46.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    46.2%
    60% to convert
    Field goal
    42.3%−3.9
    94% to make
    Punt
    31.3%−14.9
    average punt
  16. Q3 4:59BOIS 4th & 7 at BOIS 39, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 21.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.4%−0.5
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    21.9%
    average punt
  17. Q3 2:10SDSU 4th & 24 at SDSU 19, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 81.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.0%−3.8
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    81.7%
    average punt
  18. Q4 14:57BOIS 4th & 3 at SDSU 39, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 18.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    19.4%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    17.6%−1.8
    36% to make
    Punt
    17.7%−1.8
    average punt
  19. Q4 12:36BOIS 4th & 14 at SDSU 39, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 15.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.5%−0.4
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    14.8%−0.1
    36% to make
    PuntTheir call
    14.9%
    average punt
  20. Q4 9:05SDSU 4th & 1 at SDSU 30, up 11
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.2 ptsPunted · 89.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    88.4%−2.2
    average punt
  21. Q4 6:51BOIS 4th & 20 at BOIS 25, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.1%−0.9
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.0%
    average punt
  22. Q4 3:59SDSU 4th & 20 at SDSU 20, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 93.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.6%−1.5
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    93.1%
    average punt
  23. Q4 2:43BOIS 4th & 1 at BOIS 43, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 5.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    5.9%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    5.0%−1.0
    average punt
  24. Q4 0:48SDSU 4th & 7 at BOIS 25, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 96.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.1%−0.2
    36% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    96.3%
    66% to make
    Punt
    95.0%−1.2
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
SDSU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3BOIS made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 6:08BOIS Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    56.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    56.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 11:45BOIS Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    63.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    63.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 1:30SDSU Touchdown, down 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    36.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    35.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 9:26SDSU Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    59.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    59.2%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 7:46SDSU Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    76.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    76.2%−0.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
BOISDrive 1PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:1259% → 58%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
41.2%
Hank Bachmeier run for 2 yds to the BoiSt 27Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+3
41.2%
George Holani run for 3 yds to the BoiSt 30Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
41.2%
Hank Bachmeier pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:48
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
41.6%
Joel Velazquez punt for 36 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · -6 yds · 1:2142% → 42%
Q1 13:48
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
41.6%
Greg Bell run for no gain to the SDSt 34Similar
Q1 13:48
2ND & 10
OWN 34
0
41.6%
Lucas Johnson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:48
3RD & 10
OWN 34
0
41.5%
Lucas Johnson sacked by Demitri Washington for 0 yards to the SDSt 28Similar
Q1 12:27
4TH & 16
OWN 28
0
41.8%
Matt Araiza punt for 61 yds, downed at the BoiSt 11Similar
Q1 12:27
4TH & 16
OWN 28
0
41.8%
Matt Araiza punt for 61 yds, downed at the BoiSt 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:4658% → 58%
Q1 12:27
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+5
42.0%
George Holani run for 5 yds to the BoiSt 16Similar
Q1 12:27
2ND & 5
OWN 16
0
42.0%
Hank Bachmeier pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:27
3RD & 5
OWN 16
0
42.1%
Hank Bachmeier pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:41
4TH & 5
OWN 16
0
42.5%
Joel Velazquez punt for 45 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 4MISSED FG
9 plays · 30 yds · 3:3542% → 44%
Q1 11:41
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+14
42.4%
Lucas Johnson pass complete to BJ Busbee for 14 yds to the BoiSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:41
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+8
42.7%
Greg Bell run for 8 yds to the BoiSt 39Similar
Q1 11:41
2ND & 2
OPP 39
+1
42.7%
Chance Bell run for 1 yd to the BoiSt 38Similar
Q1 11:41
3RD & 1
OPP 38
+2
42.7%
Daniel Bellinger run for 2 yds to the BoiSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:41
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
42.7%
Greg Bell run for no gain to the BoiSt 36Similar
Q1 11:41
2ND & 10
OPP 36
+5
42.7%
Lucas Johnson pass complete to Jesse Matthews for 5 yds to the BoiSt 31Similar
Q1 11:41
3RD & 5
OPP 31
0
42.7%
Lucas Johnson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:06
4TH & 5
OPP 31
+48
43.6%
Matt Araiza 48 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
Q1 8:06
4TH & 5
OPP 31
+48
43.6%
Matt Araiza 48 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 5TD
7 plays · 69 yds · 1:5857% → 61%
Q1 8:06
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+12
43.0%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to George Holani for 12 yds to the BoiSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:06
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-4
42.6%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Stefan Cobbs for a loss of 4 yards to the BoiSt 39Similar
Q1 8:06
2ND & 14
OWN 39
-1
43.0%
George Holani run for a loss of 1 yard to the BoiSt 38Similar
Q1 8:06
3RD & 15
OWN 38
+21
43.2%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Stefan Cobbs for 21 yds to the SDSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:06
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+16
42.4%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to George Holani for 16 yds to the SDSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:06
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+5
42.2%
SAN DIEGO ST Penalty, Offsides (Cameron Thomas) to the SDSt 20Similar
Q1 6:08
1ST & 5
OPP 20
+20
39.3%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Kurt Rafdal for 20 yds for a TD (Jonah Dalmas KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 6FG
12 plays · 66 yds · 4:5340% → 43%
Q1 6:03
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
40.4%
Greg Bell run for 1 yd to the SDSt 21Similar
Q1 6:03
2ND & 9
OWN 21
+3
40.4%
Greg Bell run for 3 yds to the SDSt 24Similar
Q1 6:03
3RD & 6
OWN 24
+7
40.1%
Lucas Johnson pass complete to Jesse Matthews for 7 yds to the SDSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:03
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+5
40.6%
Lucas Johnson pass complete to Tyrell Shavers for 5 yds to the SDSt 36Similar
Q1 6:03
2ND & 5
OWN 36
-5
41.0%
Greg Bell run for a loss of 5 yards to the SDSt 31Similar
Q1 6:03
3RD & 10
OWN 31
+14
40.1%
Lucas Johnson pass complete to BJ Busbee for 14 yds to the SDSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:03
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+11
41.1%
Lucas Johnson pass complete to Jordan Byrd for 11 yds to the BoiSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:03
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+30
41.5%
Lucas Johnson pass complete to Jesse Matthews for 30 yds to the BoiSt 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:03
1ST & 10
OPP 14
0
41.9%
Lucas Johnson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:03
2ND & 10
OPP 14
0
41.9%
Lucas Johnson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:03
3RD & 10
OPP 14
0
41.4%
Lucas Johnson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:10
4TH & 10
OPP 14
+31
43.2%
Matt Araiza 31 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 7INT
4 plays · 3 yds · 1:1557% → 57%
Q1 1:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
42.7%
George Holani run for 1 yd to the BoiSt 26Similar
Q1 1:10
2ND & 9
OWN 26
-5
42.8%
BOISE ST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the BoiSt 21Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 14
OWN 21
+7
43.1%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Stefan Cobbs for 7 yds to the BoiSt 28Similar
Q2 14:55
3RD & 7
OWN 28
0
43.4%
Hank Bachmeier pass intercepted return for no gain to the BoiSt 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 8PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:5745% → 43%
Q2 14:55
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
44.7%
Lucas Johnson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:55
2ND & 10
OPP 41
+2
44.6%
Greg Bell run for 2 yds to the BoiSt 39Similar
Q2 14:55
3RD & 8
OPP 39
0
44.3%
Lucas Johnson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:58
4TH & 8
OPP 39
0
43.4%
Matt Araiza punt for 39 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 9TD
10 plays · 80 yds · 2:1357% → 64%
Q2 13:58
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+19
43.0%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Khalil Shakir for 19 yds to the BoiSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:58
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
42.0%
Hank Bachmeier pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:58
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+1
42.2%
George Holani run for 1 yd to the BoiSt 40Similar
Q2 13:58
3RD & 9
OWN 40
+12
42.8%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to George Holani for 12 yds to the SDSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:58
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
41.6%
Hank Bachmeier pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:58
2ND & 10
OPP 48
0
41.7%
Cyrus Habibi-Likio run for no gain to the SDSt 48Similar
Q2 13:58
3RD & 10
OPP 48
+12
42.3%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Davis Koetter for 12 yds to the SDSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:58
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
41.6%
Hank Bachmeier pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:58
2ND & 10
OPP 36
+23
41.6%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Latrell Caples for 23 yds to the SDSt 13 for a 1ST down SAN DIEGO ST Penalty, Offsides (Cameron Thomas) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:45
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+13
36.2%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Khalil Shakir for 13 yds for a TD (Jonah Dalmas PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 10DOWNS
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:5036% → 35%
Q2 11:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
35.6%
Jordan Byrd run for 2 yds to the SDSt 27Similar
Q2 11:45
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
35.8%
Lucas Johnson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:45
3RD & 8
OWN 27
0
34.9%
Lucas Johnson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:55
4TH & 8
OWN 27
+4
34.8%
Garret Fountain run for 4 yds to the SDSt 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 11FG
7 plays · 26 yds · 2:1664% → 67%
Q2 10:55
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+4
35.7%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Stefan Cobbs for 4 yds to the SDSt 27Similar
Q2 10:55
2ND & 6
OPP 27
+4
35.6%
George Holani run for 4 yds to the SDSt 23Similar
Q2 10:55
3RD & 2
OPP 23
+10
36.1%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Khalil Shakir for 10 yds to the SDSt 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:55
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+3
35.6%
George Holani run for 3 yds to the SDSt 10Similar
Q2 10:55
2ND & 7
OPP 10
0
35.6%
Hank Bachmeier pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:55
3RD & 7
OPP 10
+5
36.0%
Hank Bachmeier run for 5 yds to the SDSt 5Similar
Q2 8:39
4TH & 2
OPP 5
+22
32.6%
Jonah Dalmas 22 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 12PUNT
7 plays · 27 yds · 2:5633% → 31%
Q2 8:39
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
33.4%
Greg Bell run for 12 yds to the SDSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:39
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+3
33.9%
Greg Bell run for 3 yds to the SDSt 40Similar
Q2 8:39
2ND & 7
OWN 40
+7
34.2%
Lucas Johnson pass complete to Jesse Matthews for 7 yds to the SDSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:39
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
34.6%
Lucas Johnson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:39
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+5
34.4%
Lucas Johnson pass complete to Elijah Kothe for 5 yds to the BoiSt 48Similar
Q2 8:39
3RD & 5
OPP 48
0
34.6%
Lucas Johnson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:43
4TH & 5
OPP 48
0
31.1%
Matt Araiza punt for 40 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 13PUNT
9 plays · 42 yds · 2:3969% → 71%
Q2 5:43
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+4
31.5%
George Holani run for 4 yds to the BoiSt 12Similar
Q2 5:43
2ND & 6
OWN 12
+15
31.3%
George Holani run for 15 yds to the BoiSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:43
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
30.9%
Hank Bachmeier pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:43
2ND & 10
OWN 27
+7
31.1%
George Holani run for 7 yds to the BoiSt 34Similar
Q2 5:43
3RD & 3
OWN 34
+9
31.1%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Khalil Shakir for 9 yds to the BoiSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:43
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
30.0%
Hank Bachmeier pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:43
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+7
30.1%
Cyrus Habibi-Likio run for 7 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 5:43
3RD & 3
50
0
30.3%
Hank Bachmeier pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:04
4TH & 3
50
0
29.3%
Joel Velazquez punt for 28 yds, fair catch by Jordan Byrd at the SDSt 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 14TD
5 plays · 78 yds · 1:3430% → 43%
Q2 3:04
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+30
29.6%
Jordon Brookshire pass complete to Jesse Matthews for 30 yds to the BoiSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:04
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+2
31.4%
Jordon Brookshire run for 2 yds to the BoiSt 46Similar
Q2 3:04
2ND & 8
OPP 46
+17
31.4%
Jordon Brookshire pass complete to Daniel Bellinger for 17 yds to the BoiSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:04
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
32.5%
Jordon Brookshire pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:30
2ND & 10
OPP 29
+29
43.1%
Jordon Brookshire pass complete to Jesse Matthews for 29 yds for a TD (Matt Araiza KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 15PUNT
7 plays · 19 yds · 1:0264% → 64%
Q2 1:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
35.9%
George Holani run for 9 yds to the BoiSt 34Similar
Q2 1:30
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+7
34.7%
George Holani run for 7 yds to the BoiSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:52
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+3
34.4%
George Holani run for 3 yds to the BoiSt 44Similar
Q2 0:52
2ND & 7
OWN 44
0
34.4%
Hank Bachmeier pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:52
3RD & 7
OWN 44
0
34.7%
Hank Bachmeier pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:28
4TH & 7
OWN 44
+18
36.3%
Joel Velazquez punt for 32 yds , Jordan Byrd returns for 18 yds to the SDSt 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 16FG
6 plays · 38 yds · 0:2041% → 48%
Q2 0:23
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+16
41.2%
Jordon Brookshire pass complete to Elijah Kothe for 16 yds to the BoiSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:23
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+22
42.6%
Jordon Brookshire pass complete to Tyrell Shavers for 22 yds to the BoiSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:23
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
44.6%
Jordon Brookshire pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:23
2ND & 10
OPP 20
0
44.6%
Jordon Brookshire pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:03
3RD & 10
OPP 20
+37
48.0%
Matt Araiza 37 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 18TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 5:3444% → 62%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
43.7%
Jordon Brookshire pass complete to Jesse Matthews for a loss of 1 yard to the SDSt 24Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 11
OWN 24
0
43.5%
Jordon Brookshire pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 11
OWN 24
+18
42.1%
Jordon Brookshire run for 18 yds to the SDSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+9
46.4%
Greg Bell run for 9 yds to the BoiSt 49Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 1
OPP 49
-1
47.4%
Greg Bell run for a loss of 1 yard to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 2
50
+1
46.5%
Greg Bell run for 1 yd to the BoiSt 49Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 1
OPP 49
+38
45.2%
Jordon Brookshire pass complete to Daniel Bellinger for 38 yds to the BoiSt 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+8
48.6%
Jordon Brookshire run for 8 yds to the BoiSt 3Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 2
OPP 3
+1
48.6%
Greg Bell run for 1 yd to the BoiSt 2Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 2
0
47.0%
Jordon Brookshire run for no gain to the BoiSt 2Similar
Q3 9:26
4TH & 1
OPP 2
+2
62.1%
Greg Bell run for 2 yds for a TD (Matt Araiza KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 19INT
3 plays · 18 yds · 1:0441% → 43%
Q3 9:26
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
59.4%
George Holani run for 1 yd to the BoiSt 26Similar
Q3 9:26
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+17
59.5%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Khalil Shakir for 17 yds to the BoiSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:22
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
57.2%
Hank Bachmeier pass intercepted return for no gain to the BoiSt 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 20TD
3 plays · 43 yds · 0:3665% → 78%
Q3 8:22
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+27
65.0%
Jordon Brookshire pass complete to Jesse Matthews for 27 yds to the BoiSt 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:22
1ST & 10
OPP 16
0
65.8%
Jordon Brookshire pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:46
2ND & 10
OPP 16
+16
78.3%
Jordon Brookshire run for 16 yds for a TD (Matt Araiza KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 21PUNT
9 plays · 14 yds · 2:4725% → 20%
Q3 7:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
74.7%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Stefan Cobbs for 6 yds to the BoiSt 31Similar
Q3 7:46
2ND & 4
OWN 31
-1
73.8%
George Holani run for a loss of 1 yard to the BoiSt 30Similar
Q3 7:46
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+6
74.9%
Hank Bachmeier run for 6 yds to the BoiSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:46
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+3
73.8%
George Holani run for 3 yds to the BoiSt 39Similar
Q3 7:46
2ND & 7
OWN 39
0
73.4%
George Holani run for no gain to the BoiSt 39Similar
Q3 7:46
3RD & 7
OWN 39
0
74.3%
Hank Bachmeier pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:59
4TH & 7
OWN 39
+10
78.1%
Joel Velazquez punt for 38 yds , Jordan Byrd returns for 10 yds to the SDSt 33Similar
Q3 4:59
1ST & 10
OWN 33
-15
80.0%
BROOKSHIRE, Jordon pass to the left complete for 26 yards to SHAVERS, Tyrell caught at the BSF43 and advanced to the BSF41 (LEBEAUF, Tyric). PENALTY SDS Pass Interference on SHAVERS, Tyrell enforced 15 yards to the SDS18 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 4:59
1ST & 25
OWN 18
-5
79.6%
SAN DIEGO ST Penalty, False Start (Zachary Thomas) to the SDSt 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 22PUNT
4 plays · -14 yds · 2:4980% → 81%
Q3 4:59
1ST & 30
OWN 13
+6
79.6%
Greg Bell run for 6 yds to the SDSt 19 fumbled, recovered by SDSt Greg BellSimilar
Q3 4:59
2ND & 24
OWN 19
+9
79.5%
Jordon Brookshire pass complete to BJ Busbee for 9 yds to the SDSt 28Similar
Q3 4:59
3RD & 15
OWN 28
0
78.6%
Jordon Brookshire sacked by Brandon Hawkins for 0 yards to the SDSt 19Similar
Q3 2:10
4TH & 24
OWN 19
0
80.5%
Matt Araiza punt for 52 yds, downed at the BoiSt 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 23PUNT
15 plays · 32 yds · 4:3420% → 16%
Q3 2:10
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+6
80.5%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Stefan Cobbs for 6 yds to the BoiSt 35Similar
Q3 2:10
2ND & 4
OWN 35
+6
79.2%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to George Holani for 6 yds to the BoiSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:10
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
79.0%
Hank Bachmeier pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:10
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+5
79.7%
SAN DIEGO ST Penalty, Offsides (Nassir Sims) to the BoiSt 46Similar
Q3 2:10
2ND & 5
OWN 46
+8
78.5%
George Holani run for 8 yds to the SDSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:10
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
77.7%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to George Holani for no gain to the SDSt 46Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+2
79.0%
Cyrus Habibi-Likio run for 2 yds to the SDSt 44Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 8
OPP 44
0
79.6%
Hank Bachmeier pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:57
4TH & 8
OPP 44
+5
81.8%
SAN DIEGO ST Penalty, Offsides (Zachary Thomas) to the SDSt 39Similar
Q4 14:57
4TH & 3
OPP 39
+4
79.5%
Khalil Shakir run for 4 yds to the SDSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:57
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+6
76.4%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Khalil Shakir for 6 yds to the SDSt 29Similar
Q4 14:57
2ND & 4
OPP 29
-2
75.8%
George Holani run for a loss of 2 yards to the SDSt 31Similar
Q4 14:57
3RD & 6
OPP 31
0
78.1%
Hank Bachmeier sacked by Jonah Tavai for 0 yards to the SDSt 39Similar
Q4 12:36
4TH & 14
OPP 39
0
84.2%
Joel Velazquez punt for 31 yds, fair catch by Jordan Byrd at the SDSt 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 24PUNT
7 plays · 22 yds · 3:3184% → 91%
Q4 12:36
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+6
84.0%
Jordon Brookshire pass complete to Daniel Bellinger for 6 yds to the SDSt 14Similar
Q4 12:36
2ND & 4
OWN 14
+7
84.5%
Kaegun Williams run for 7 yds to the SDSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:36
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+9
84.6%
Jordon Brookshire run for 9 yds to the SDSt 30Similar
Q4 12:36
2ND & 1
OWN 30
-1
85.0%
Jordon Brookshire pass complete to Jesse Matthews for a loss of 1 yard to the SDSt 29Similar
Q4 9:12
3RD & 2
OWN 29
+1
91.3%
Kaegun Williams run for 1 yd to the SDSt 30Similar
Q4 9:05
4TH & 1
OWN 30
0
90.7%
Matt Araiza punt for 47 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 25PUNT
7 plays · 2 yds · 2:1411% → 9%
Q4 9:05
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
88.9%
Hank Bachmeier pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:05
2ND & 10
OWN 23
+7
88.9%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Latrell Caples for 7 yds to the BoiSt 30Similar
Q4 9:05
3RD & 3
OWN 30
+5
88.0%
Hank Bachmeier run for 5 yds to the BoiSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:05
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
87.5%
Hank Bachmeier pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:05
2ND & 10
OWN 35
0
87.9%
Hank Bachmeier sacked by Jonah Tavai for 0 yards to the BoiSt 28Similar
Q4 9:05
3RD & 17
OWN 28
0
89.6%
Hank Bachmeier sacked by Jonah Tavai for 0 yards to the BoiSt 25Similar
Q4 6:51
4TH & 20
OWN 25
+10
91.3%
Joel Velazquez punt for 55 yds , Jordan Byrd returns for 10 yds to the SDSt 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 26PUNT
5 plays · -10 yds · 2:5293% → 94%
Q4 6:51
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-1
93.1%
Jordon Brookshire run for a loss of 1 yard to the SDSt 29Similar
Q4 6:51
2ND & 11
OWN 29
-15
92.7%
QB Keeper BROOKSHIRE, Jordon rush to the right for a gain of 34 yards to the BSF37 (WASHINGTON, Demitri). PENALTY SDS Block below the waist on BUSBEE, BJ enforced 15 yards from the SDS29 to the SDS14 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 6:51
2ND & 25
OWN 15
+5
92.7%
Chance Bell run for 5 yds to the SDSt 20Similar
Q4 6:51
3RD & 20
OWN 20
0
92.6%
Chance Bell run for no gain to the SDSt 20Similar
Q4 3:59
4TH & 20
OWN 20
0
94.4%
Matt Araiza punt for 46 yds , Khalil Shakir returns for no gain to the BoiSt 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 27DOWNS
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:168% → 7%
Q4 3:59
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
91.7%
Jack Sears sacked by Cameron Thomas for 0 yards to the BoiSt 25Similar
Q4 3:59
2ND & 19
OWN 25
+7
92.8%
Jack Sears run for 7 yds to the BoiSt 32Similar
Q4 3:59
3RD & 12
OWN 32
+5
93.1%
SAN DIEGO ST Penalty, Offsides (Keshawn Banks) to the BoiSt 37Similar
Q4 3:59
3RD & 7
OWN 37
+6
91.9%
Jack Sears pass complete to George Holani for 6 yds to the BoiSt 43Similar
Q4 2:43
4TH & 1
OWN 43
0
93.4%
George Holani run for no gain to the BoiSt 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 28MISSED FG
9 plays · 18 yds · 1:5596% → 98%
Q4 2:43
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+9
96.4%
Kaegun Williams run for 9 yds to the BoiSt 34Similar
Q4 2:43
2ND & 1
OPP 34
+6
96.4%
Kaegun Williams run for 6 yds to the BoiSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:05
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+3
97.7%
Jordon Brookshire run for 3 yds to the BoiSt 25Similar
Q4 1:00
2ND & 7
OPP 25
-1
97.9%
Kaegun Williams run for a loss of 1 yard to the BoiSt 26Similar
Q4 0:52
3RD & 8
OPP 26
+1
98.1%
Kaegun Williams run for 1 yd to the BoiSt 25Similar
Q4 0:48
4TH & 7
OPP 25
+42
97.9%
Matt Araiza 42 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 29INT
2 plays · 11 yds · 0:242% → 3%
Q4 0:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
97.6%
Jack Sears run for 11 yds to the BoiSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:24
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
97.3%
Jack Sears pass intercepted for a 1ST down return for no gain to the SDSt 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 9:26
Greg Bell run for 2 yds for a TD (Matt Araiza KICK)
+15
TD · Q3 7:46
Jordon Brookshire run for 16 yds for a TD (Matt Araiza KICK)
+12.5
TD · Q2 1:30
Jordon Brookshire pass complete to Jesse Matthews for 29 yds for a TD (Matt Araiza KICK)
+10.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com