Try the model
UNM

New Mexico 7 at San Diego State 31

SDSU
2021 · Week 6 · Oct 9, 2021 · Qualcomm Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · SDSU
modelSDSU aheadUNM aheadconfidence bandkey playSDSU scoreUNM score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 3:30 · Matt Araiza punt for 45 yds SAN DIEGO ST Penalty, Kick Catch Interference enforced at the deadball spot for (TEAM) to the 50 yard line
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+39.5+19.80−19.8−39.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 143Pregame prior+2.9Home team on offense+33.0Score differential+23.0Garbage-time factor+13.9Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+13.3Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+9.5
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 4:35: Jordon Brookshire run for 1 yd for a TD — SDSU win probability +4.7 pts (now 92%) (top driver: SDSU has the ball).
  2. KEY PLAY · Q2 1:18: Kaegun Williams run for 5 yds to the SDSt 6 — SDSU win probability +2.8 pts (now 93%) (top driver: SDSU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 4:41: Greg Bell run for no gain for a TD (Andrew Shelley KICK) — UNM win probability +6.9 pts (now 12%) (top driver: SDSU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 2:35: Jordon Brookshire run for 11 yds for a TD (Matt Araiza KICK) — SDSU win probability +6.5 pts (now 96%) (top driver: SDSU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 13:05: Chance Bell run for 8 yds for a TD (Matt Araiza KICK) — SDSU win probability +2.4 pts (now 99%) (top driver: SDSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
SDSU made the numbers' call on 5 of 8UNM made the numbers' call on 9 of 11
  1. Q1 13:22UNM 4th & 8 at UNM 19, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.8%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    10.8%
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:51UNM 4th & 10 at UNM 25, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.0%−0.1
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.1%
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:29SDSU 4th & 10 at UNM 36, up 7
    Close callPunted · 88.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.3%−<0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    88.3%
    42% to make
    PuntTheir call
    88.3%−<0.1
    average punt
  4. Q1 3:08UNM 4th & 6 at UNM 35, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.9%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.0%
    average punt
  5. Q2 14:57SDSU 4th & 7 at UNM 23, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 87.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.3%−0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    87.4%
    70% to make
    Punt
    86.1%−1.4
    average punt
  6. Q2 11:23SDSU 4th & 2 at UNM 26, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 87.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    87.3%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    86.8%−0.5
    64% to make
    Punt
    84.6%−2.7
    average punt
  7. Q2 10:04UNM 4th & 13 at UNM 23, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.4%−0.8
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.2%
    average punt
  8. Q2 10:04SDSU 4th & 2 at UNM 37, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 87.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    87.3%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    86.3%−0.9
    40% to make
    Punt
    86.3%−1.0
    average punt
  9. Q3 13:07SDSU 4th & 9 at SDSU 9, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 92.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.6%−0.5
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    92.1%
    average punt
  10. Q3 11:36UNM 4th & 2 at UNM 44, down 17
    Close callPunted · 6.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.1%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    6.6%−0.4
    average punt
  11. Q3 10:17SDSU 4th & 3 at SDSU 30, up 17
    Close callPunted · 94.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.7%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    94.3%−0.4
    average punt
  12. Q3 5:23UNM 4th & 17 at SDSU 48, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.6%−1.4
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    6.0%
    average punt
  13. Q3 0:57UNM 4th & 3 at UNM 30, down 17
    Close callPunted · 4.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.0%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.6%−0.4
    average punt
  14. Q4 11:48UNM 4th & 15 at UNM 20, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.8%−0.2
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.0%
    average punt
  15. Q4 9:44SDSU 4th & 6 at SDSU 42, up 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.9%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.0%
    average punt
  16. Q4 9:44UNM 4th & 1 at SDSU 42, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.0%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    0.7%−0.2
    30% to make
    Punt
    0.8%−0.2
    average punt
  17. Q4 5:50UNM 4th & 29 at SDSU 47, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.6%−0.1
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.7%
    average punt
  18. Q4 3:30SDSU 4th & 1 at SDSU 20, up 24
    Close callPunted · 99.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.3%−0.1
    average punt
  19. Q4 0:56UNM 4th & 5 at SDSU 33, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.5%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    0.4%−0.1
    49% to make
    Punt
    0.4%−0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
SDSU made the numbers' call on 2 of 3UNM made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 11:21SDSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    89.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    89.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q3 4:41UNM Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    10.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    10.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 2:35SDSU Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 13:05SDSU Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.0%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.1%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UNMDrive 1PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 1:3211% → 11%
Q1 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 17
-1
89.3%
Trae Hall run for a loss of 1 yard to the NMex 16Similar
Q1 14:54
2ND & 11
OWN 16
+3
89.3%
Terry Wilson pass complete to Andrew Erickson for 3 yds to the NMex 19Similar
Q1 14:54
3RD & 8
OWN 19
0
89.3%
Terry Wilson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:22
4TH & 8
OWN 19
+3
89.0%
Aaron Rodriguez punt for 47 yds , Jordan Byrd returns for 3 yds to the SDSt 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 2TD
6 plays · 63 yds · 2:0189% → 89%
Q1 13:22
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+40
88.9%
Greg Bell run for 40 yds to the NMex 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:22
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+4
89.0%
Greg Bell run for 4 yds to the NMex 19Similar
Q1 13:22
2ND & 6
OPP 19
+7
89.0%
Greg Bell run for 7 yds to the NMex 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:22
1ST & 10
OPP 12
0
89.0%
Jordon Brookshire pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:22
2ND & 10
OPP 12
+11
89.0%
Greg Bell run for 11 yds to the NMex 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:21
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
89.1%
Greg Bell run for 1 yd for a TD (Matt Araiza KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 1:3011% → 11%
Q1 11:21
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
88.9%
Aaron Dumas run for 3 yds to the NMex 28Similar
Q1 11:21
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
88.8%
Terry Wilson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:21
3RD & 7
OWN 28
0
88.9%
Terry Wilson sacked by Cameron Thomas and Keshawn Banks for 0 yards to the NMex 25Similar
Q1 9:51
4TH & 10
OWN 25
0
88.8%
Aaron Rodriguez punt for 50 yds, fair catch by Jordan Byrd at the SDSt 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 4PUNT
10 plays · 39 yds · 3:2289% → 88%
Q1 9:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
88.8%
Jordon Brookshire pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:51
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+7
88.7%
Jordon Brookshire pass complete to Greg Bell for 7 yds to the SDSt 32Similar
Q1 9:51
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+6
88.7%
Jordon Brookshire pass complete to Jesse Matthews for 6 yds to the SDSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:51
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
88.9%
Jordon Brookshire pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:51
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+4
88.8%
Kaegun Williams run for 4 yds to the SDSt 42Similar
Q1 9:51
3RD & 6
OWN 42
+22
88.8%
Jordon Brookshire run for 22 yds to the NMex 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:51
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
89.0%
Greg Bell run for no gain to the NMex 36Similar
Q1 9:51
2ND & 10
OPP 36
0
89.0%
Jordon Brookshire pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:51
3RD & 10
OPP 36
0
88.9%
Jordon Brookshire pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:29
4TH & 10
OPP 36
0
88.2%
Matt Araiza punt for 36 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 5PUNT
7 plays · 15 yds · 3:2112% → 12%
Q1 6:29
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
88.2%
Aaron Dumas run for 5 yds to the NMex 25Similar
Q1 6:29
2ND & 5
OWN 25
+3
88.1%
Terry Wilson pass complete to Trae Hall for 3 yds to the NMex 28Similar
Q1 6:29
3RD & 2
OWN 28
+3
88.2%
Terry Wilson pass complete to Connor Witthoft for 3 yds to the NMex 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:29
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+2
88.1%
Aaron Dumas run for 2 yds to the NMex 33Similar
Q1 6:29
2ND & 8
OWN 33
+2
88.1%
Aaron Dumas run for 2 yds to the NMex 35Similar
Q1 6:29
3RD & 6
OWN 35
0
88.2%
Terry Wilson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:08
4TH & 6
OWN 35
0
87.9%
Aaron Rodriguez punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Jordan Byrd at the SDSt 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 6FG
12 plays · 48 yds · 3:1188% → 87%
Q1 3:08
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+1
87.9%
Greg Bell run for 1 yd to the SDSt 30Similar
Q1 3:08
2ND & 9
OWN 30
+15
87.8%
NEW MEXICO Penalty, Face mask (15 yards) (Ronald Wilson) to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:11
1ST & 10
50
0
87.9%
Jordon Brookshire pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:11
2ND & 10
50
+12
87.8%
Greg Bell run for 12 yds to the NMex 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:11
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
88.0%
Jordon Brookshire pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:11
2ND & 10
OPP 38
-3
87.9%
Chance Bell run for a loss of 3 yards to the NMex 41Similar
Q1 2:11
3RD & 13
OPP 41
+15
87.5%
BROOKSHIRE, Jordon pass to the right incomplete intended for KOTHE, Elijah thrown to the UNM0. PENALTY UNM Pass Interference on SANDERS, Devin enforced 15 yards to the UNM26 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 2:11
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
88.0%
Jordon Brookshire pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:11
2ND & 10
OPP 26
+5
88.0%
Greg Bell run for 5 yds to the NMex 21Similar
Q1 0:00
3RD & 5
OPP 21
-2
87.5%
Greg Bell run for a loss of 2 yards to the NMex 23Similar
Q2 14:57
4TH & 7
OPP 23
+40
87.2%
Matt Araiza 40 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 7FUMBLE
4 plays · 24 yds · 2:0013% → 13%
Q2 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 24
-2
87.4%
Aaron Dumas run for a loss of 2 yards to the NMex 22Similar
Q2 14:51
2ND & 12
OWN 22
+3
87.6%
Terry Wilson pass complete to Trae Hall for 3 yds to the NMex 25Similar
Q2 14:51
3RD & 9
OWN 25
+12
87.7%
Terry Wilson pass complete to Andrew Erickson for 12 yds to the NMex 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:51
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+11
87.0%
Terry Wilson pass complete to Luke Wysong for 11 yds to the NMex 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 8DOWNS
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:2888% → 87%
Q2 12:51
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+1
87.5%
Jordan Byrd run for 1 yd to the NMex 33Similar
Q2 12:51
2ND & 9
OPP 33
0
87.5%
Jordon Brookshire pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:51
3RD & 9
OPP 33
+7
87.2%
Jordon Brookshire pass complete to Elijah Kothe for 7 yds to the NMex 26Similar
Q2 11:23
4TH & 2
OPP 26
0
86.7%
Jordon Brookshire pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 9PUNT
4 plays · -3 yds · 1:1913% → 13%
Q2 11:23
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+1
86.7%
Terry Wilson run for 1 yd to the NMex 27Similar
Q2 11:23
2ND & 9
OWN 27
-4
86.8%
Terry Wilson run for a loss of 4 yards to the NMex 23Similar
Q2 11:23
3RD & 13
OWN 23
0
87.2%
Terry Wilson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:04
4TH & 13
OWN 23
0
87.5%
Aaron Rodriguez punt for 43 yds , Jordan Byrd returns for no gain to the SDSt 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 10TD
10 plays · 66 yds · 5:2987% → 92%
Q2 10:04
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+4
86.5%
Greg Bell run for 4 yds to the SDSt 38Similar
Q2 10:04
2ND & 6
OWN 38
+17
87.1%
Jordon Brookshire pass complete to Daniel Bellinger for 17 yds to the NMex 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:04
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+2
87.3%
Greg Bell run for 2 yds to the NMex 43Similar
Q2 10:04
2ND & 8
OPP 43
+4
87.3%
Greg Bell run for 4 yds to the NMex 39Similar
Q2 10:04
3RD & 4
OPP 39
+2
87.0%
Greg Bell run for 2 yds to the NMex 37Similar
Q2 10:04
4TH & 2
OPP 37
+23
86.5%
Jordon Brookshire pass complete to Tyrell Shavers for 23 yds to the NMex 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:04
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+3
87.3%
Greg Bell run for 3 yds to the NMex 11Similar
Q2 10:04
2ND & 7
OPP 11
+8
87.3%
Greg Bell run for 8 yds to the NMex 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:04
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
87.3%
Greg Bell run for 2 yds to the NMex 1Similar
Q2 4:35
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
92.1%
Jordon Brookshire run for 1 yd for a TDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 11INT
9 plays · 73 yds · 3:129% → 9%
Q2 4:30
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+8
91.4%
Terry Wilson pass complete to Luke Wysong for 8 yds to the NMex 26Similar
Q2 4:30
2ND & 2
OWN 26
+14
91.0%
Aaron Dumas run for 14 yds to the NMex 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:30
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+16
91.0%
Aaron Dumas run for 16 yds to the SDSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:30
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+28
90.3%
Terry Wilson pass complete to Elijah Queen for 28 yds to the SDSt 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:14
1ST & 10
OPP 16
-5
90.5%
NEW MEXICO Penalty, False Start (Elijah Queen) to the SDSt 21Similar
Q2 2:14
1ST & 15
OPP 21
0
91.0%
Trae Hall pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:14
2ND & 15
OPP 21
+12
91.2%
Terry Wilson pass complete to Trae Hall for 12 yds to the SDSt 9Similar
Q2 1:18
3RD & 3
OPP 9
0
90.6%
Terry Wilson pass intercepted return for no gain to the SDSt 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 12END OF HALF
3 plays · 25 yds · 1:1893% → 93%
Q2 1:18
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+5
93.4%
Kaegun Williams run for 5 yds to the SDSt 6Similar
Q2 1:18
2ND & 5
OWN 6
+15
93.4%
NEW MEXICO Penalty, Face mask (15 yards) (Langston Murray) to the SDSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+3
92.9%
Kaegun Williams run for 3 yds to the SDSt 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 13PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 1:4793% → 92%
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 8
0
92.6%
Greg Bell run for no gain to the SDSt 8Similar
Q3 14:54
2ND & 10
OWN 8
-1
92.6%
Jordon Brookshire pass complete to Jordan Byrd for a loss of 1 yard to the SDSt 7Similar
Q3 14:54
3RD & 11
OWN 7
+7
92.3%
Jordon Brookshire run for 7 yds to the SDSt 14Similar
Q3 14:54
4TH & 4
OWN 14
-5
92.0%
SAN DIEGO ST Penalty, Delay Of Game (TEAM) to the SDSt 9Similar
Q3 13:07
4TH & 9
OWN 9
+9
92.0%
Matt Araiza punt for 64 yds , Chad Alexander returns for 9 yds to the NMex 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 14PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:317% → 7%
Q3 13:07
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-1
92.6%
Aaron Dumas run for a loss of 1 yard to the NMex 35Similar
Q3 13:07
2ND & 11
OWN 35
0
93.1%
Terry Wilson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 13:07
3RD & 11
OWN 35
+9
93.2%
Terry Wilson pass complete to Andrew Erickson for 9 yds to the NMex 44Similar
Q3 11:36
4TH & 2
OWN 44
0
93.1%
Aaron Rodriguez punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Jordan Byrd at the SDSt 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 15PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:1994% → 94%
Q3 11:36
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+6
93.5%
Jordon Brookshire pass complete to Kaegun Williams for 6 yds to the SDSt 29Similar
Q3 11:36
2ND & 4
OWN 29
+1
93.5%
Greg Bell run for 1 yd to the SDSt 30Similar
Q3 11:36
3RD & 3
OWN 30
0
93.2%
Jordon Brookshire pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:17
4TH & 3
OWN 30
+2
94.1%
Matt Araiza punt for 55 yds , Luke Wysong returns for 2 yds to the NMex 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 16PUNT
11 plays · 35 yds · 4:547% → 5%
Q3 10:17
1ST & 10
OWN 17
0
93.4%
Terry Wilson sacked by Caden McDonald for 0 yards to the NMex 4Similar
Q3 10:17
2ND & 23
OWN 4
+2
93.9%
Bobby Cole run for 2 yds to the NMex 6Similar
Q3 8:55
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+7
93.5%
Bobby Cole run for 7 yds to the NMex 28Similar
Q3 8:55
2ND & 3
OWN 28
0
93.1%
Bobby Cole run for no gain to the NMex 28Similar
Q3 8:55
3RD & 3
OWN 28
0
93.4%
Terry Wilson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:55
4TH & 3
OWN 28
+5
93.8%
SAN DIEGO ST Penalty, Offsides (Zachary Thomas) to the NMex 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:55
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+26
93.2%
Terry Wilson pass complete to Luke Wysong for 26 yds to the SDSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:55
1ST & 10
OPP 41
-3
92.7%
Terry Wilson run for a loss of 3 yards to the SDSt 44Similar
Q3 8:55
2ND & 13
OPP 44
-4
93.2%
Bobby Cole run for a loss of 4 yards to the SDSt 48Similar
Q3 8:55
3RD & 17
OPP 48
0
93.7%
Terry Wilson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:23
4TH & 17
OPP 48
0
94.8%
Aaron Rodriguez punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Jordan Byrd at the SDSt 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 17FUMBLE TD
2 plays · 6 yds · 0:4295% → 88%
Q3 5:23
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+6
95.2%
Greg Bell run for 6 yds to the SDSt 15Similar
Q3 4:41
2ND & 4
OWN 15
0
88.3%
Greg Bell run for no gain for a TD (Andrew Shelley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 18TD
6 plays · 60 yds · 1:5989% → 96%
Q3 4:34
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+15
89.3%
NEW MEXICO Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Dion Hunter) to the NMex 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:34
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
89.6%
Kaegun Williams run for no gain to the NMex 45Similar
Q3 4:34
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+16
89.4%
Jordon Brookshire pass complete to Tyrell Shavers for 16 yds to the NMex 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:34
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+10
89.7%
BROOKSHIRE, Jordon pass to the right incomplete intended for KOTHE, Elijah thrown to the UNM20. PENALTY UNM Holding on HIGHTOWER, Corey enforced 10 yards from the UNM29 to the UNM19 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 4:34
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+8
89.7%
Kaegun Williams run for 8 yds to the NMex 11Similar
Q3 2:35
2ND & 2
OPP 11
+11
96.2%
Jordon Brookshire run for 11 yds for a TD (Matt Araiza KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 19PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:315% → 4%
Q3 2:28
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+3
95.3%
Bobby Cole run for 3 yds to the NMex 26Similar
Q3 2:28
2ND & 7
OWN 26
+4
95.1%
Terry Wilson run for 4 yds to the NMex 30Similar
Q3 2:28
3RD & 3
OWN 30
0
95.1%
Terry Wilson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 0:57
4TH & 3
OWN 30
0
95.6%
Aaron Rodriguez punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Jordan Byrd at the SDSt 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 20TD
7 plays · 66 yds · 2:5296% → 99%
Q3 0:57
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+36
96.1%
Jordon Brookshire pass complete to BJ Busbee for 36 yds to the NMex 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+1
96.5%
Chance Bell run for 1 yd to the NMex 29Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 29
+8
96.5%
Jordon Brookshire pass complete to Daniel Bellinger for 8 yds to the NMex 21Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 21
+4
96.4%
Jordon Brookshire run for 4 yds to the NMex 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 17
0
96.5%
BROOKSHIRE, Jordon pass up the middle incomplete intended for BELLINGER, Daniel thrown to the UNM15; QB hurried by NOBLE, Joey. PENALTY UNM Roughing the Passer on NOBLE, Joey enforced half the distance from the goal, 9 yards from the UNM17 to the UNM8 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NH]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
0
96.5%
Jordon Brookshire pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:05
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
99.0%
Chance Bell run for 8 yds for a TD (Matt Araiza KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 21PUNT
4 plays · -5 yds · 1:171% → 1%
Q4 13:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-6
98.9%
Terry Wilson run for a loss of 6 yards to the NMex 19Similar
Q4 13:05
2ND & 16
OWN 19
0
98.9%
Terry Wilson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:05
3RD & 16
OWN 19
+1
98.9%
Terry Wilson run for 1 yd to the NMex 20Similar
Q4 11:48
4TH & 15
OWN 20
0
99.0%
Aaron Rodriguez punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Jordan Byrd at the SDSt 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 22PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 2:0499% → 99%
Q4 11:48
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-2
99.0%
Jordan Byrd run for a loss of 2 yards to the SDSt 36Similar
Q4 11:48
2ND & 12
OWN 36
+3
98.9%
Lucas Johnson pass complete to Jordan Byrd for 3 yds to the SDSt 39Similar
Q4 11:48
3RD & 9
OWN 39
+3
99.0%
Jordan Byrd run for 3 yds to the SDSt 42Similar
Q4 9:44
4TH & 6
OWN 42
0
99.0%
Matt Araiza punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Andrew Erickson at the NMex 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 23PUNT
10 plays · 36 yds · 3:541% → 1%
Q4 9:44
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+8
99.1%
Terry Wilson run for 8 yds to the NMex 25Similar
Q4 9:44
2ND & 2
OWN 25
+5
99.0%
Aaron Dumas run for 5 yds to the NMex 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:44
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+19
99.0%
Aaron Dumas run for 19 yds to the NMex 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:44
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
99.0%
Terry Wilson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:44
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+6
99.0%
Terry Wilson pass complete to Luke Wysong for 6 yds to the SDSt 45Similar
Q4 9:44
3RD & 4
OPP 45
+3
99.0%
Terry Wilson pass complete to Jace Taylor for 3 yds to the SDSt 42Similar
Q4 9:44
4TH & 1
OPP 42
+14
99.0%
Aaron Dumas run for 14 yds to the SDSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:44
2ND & 22
OPP 40
0
99.0%
Terry Wilson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:44
3RD & 22
OPP 40
0
99.1%
Terry Wilson sacked by Jalil Lecky and Sefo Mailangi for 0 yards to the SDSt 47Similar
Q4 5:50
4TH & 29
OPP 47
0
99.4%
Aaron Rodriguez punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Jordan Byrd at the SDSt 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 24PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 2:2099% → 100%
Q4 5:50
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+3
99.3%
Jaylon Armstead run for 3 yds to the SDSt 14Similar
Q4 5:50
2ND & 7
OWN 14
0
99.3%
Jaylon Armstead run for no gain to the SDSt 14Similar
Q4 3:39
3RD & 7
OWN 14
+6
99.6%
Lucas Johnson run for 6 yds to the SDSt 20Similar
Q4 3:30
4TH & 1
OWN 20
+30
99.6%
Matt Araiza punt for 45 yds SAN DIEGO ST Penalty, Kick Catch Interference enforced at the deadball spot for (TEAM) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 25DOWNS
7 plays · 16 yds · 2:341% → 1%
Q4 3:30
1ST & 10
50
+1
99.3%
Bobby Cole run for 1 yd to the SDSt 49Similar
Q4 3:30
2ND & 9
OPP 49
+8
99.3%
Bobby Cole run for 8 yds to the SDSt 41Similar
Q4 3:30
3RD & 1
OPP 41
+3
99.2%
Bobby Cole run for 3 yds to the SDSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:30
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+2
99.3%
Bobby Cole run for 2 yds to the SDSt 36Similar
Q4 3:30
2ND & 8
OPP 36
+3
99.3%
Bobby Cole run for 3 yds to the SDSt 33Similar
Q4 3:30
3RD & 5
OPP 33
0
99.2%
CJ Montes pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:56
4TH & 5
OPP 33
-1
99.3%
CJ Montes run for a loss of 1 yard to the SDSt 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 26END OF GAME
2 plays · 8 yds · 0:56100% → 100%
Q4 0:56
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+7
99.7%
Jaylon Armstead run for 7 yds to the SDSt 41Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 3
OWN 41
+1
99.8%
William Haskell run for 1 yd to the SDSt 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 4:41
Greg Bell run for no gain for a TD (Andrew Shelley KICK)
-6.9
TD · Q3 2:35
Jordon Brookshire run for 11 yds for a TD (Matt Araiza KICK)
+6.5
TD · Q2 4:35
Jordon Brookshire run for 1 yd for a TD
+4.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com