Try the model
FRES

Fresno State 30 at San Diego State 20

SDSU
2021 · Week 9 · Oct 30, 2021 · Qualcomm Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · SDSU
modelSDSU aheadFRES aheadconfidence bandkey playSDSU scoreFRES score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGFGTDFGTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 7:20 · Matt Araiza punt for 33 yds
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorPregame priorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+48.0+24.00−24.0−48.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 54Home team on offense−10.5Score differential−5.9Garbage-time factor−3.2Pregame prior−5.5Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.8Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−1.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 14:17: J. Haener pass,to K. Wheatfall for 16 yds for a TD, (C. Silva KICK) — FRES win probability +5.9 pts (now 68%) (top driver: FRES has the ball).
  2. FG · Q2 9:04: Cesar Silva 49 yd FG GOOD — FRES win probability +5.1 pts (now 74%) (top driver: FRES has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 2:15: L. Johnson pass,to T. Shavers for 19 yds for a TD, (M. Araiza KICK) — SDSU win probability +7.6 pts (now 34%) (top driver: SDSU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 0:13: Greg Bell 3 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed) — SDSU win probability +9.4 pts (now 29%) (top driver: SDSU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 1:06: William Haskell run for 7 yds for a TD, (Matt Araiza KICK) — SDSU win probability +6.1 pts (now 8%) (top driver: SDSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
SDSU made the numbers' call on 3 of 6FRES made the numbers' call on 4 of 8
  1. Q1 13:44FRES 4th & 4 at FRES 31, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 54.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.7%−0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    54.7%
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:44SDSU 4th & 17 at FRES 47, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 45.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.8%−0.2
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    46.0%
    average punt
  3. Q2 11:53SDSU 4th & 8 at FRES 43, down 14
    Close callPunted · 35.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.3%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    34.7%−0.6
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    35.2%−0.1
    average punt
  4. Q2 9:04FRES 4th & 15 at SDSU 32, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 68.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.3%−1.7
    17% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    67.9%
    51% to make
    Punt
    66.8%−1.1
    average punt
  5. Q2 7:20SDSU 4th & 10 at FRES 48, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 29.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.6%−0.4
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.0%
    average punt
  6. Q2 4:32FRES 4th & 3 at SDSU 10, up 17
    Close callKicked a field goal · 75.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.4%
    49% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    74.6%−0.9
    88% to make
    Punt
    67.3%−8.2
    average punt
  7. Q2 0:38FRES 4th & 17 at SDSU 27, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 71.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.3%−3.0
    14% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    72.3%
    62% to make
    Punt
    65.8%−6.4
    average punt
  8. Q3 14:01SDSU 4th & 3 at SDSU 45, down 13
    Close callPunted · 29.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.1%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.7%−0.4
    average punt
  9. Q3 8:03SDSU 4th & 10 at FRES 47, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.1%−0.8
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    25.8%
    average punt
  10. Q3 6:58FRES 4th & 1 at FRES 29, up 13
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.8 ptsPunted · 78.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    78.1%−2.8
    average punt
  11. Q3 4:00FRES 4th & 7 at SDSU 25, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 84.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.2%−0.2
    36% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    84.4%
    66% to make
    Punt
    77.1%−7.3
    average punt
  12. Q4 13:37FRES 4th & 1 at FRES 34, up 10
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.4 ptsPunted · 75.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    75.8%−1.4
    average punt
  13. Q4 11:53SDSU 4th & 3 at FRES 43, down 10
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.8 ptsPunted · 20.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.4%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    18.6%−2.7
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    19.6%−1.8
    average punt
  14. Q4 6:43FRES 4th & 13 at SDSU 38, up 10
    Close callPunted · 86.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.7%−0.7
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    85.4%
    38% to make
    PuntTheir call
    85.3%−0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
SDSU made the numbers' call on 2 of 3FRES made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 3:53FRES Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    55.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    55.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 14:17FRES Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    62.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    62.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 2:15SDSU Touchdown, down 14 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    29.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    29.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 0:13SDSU Touchdown, down 10 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    25.7%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    25.5%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 4:28FRES Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.8%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 1:06SDSU Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    5.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    5.4%−0.3
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
FRESDrive 1PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:1659% → 58%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
41.2%
Jordan Mims run for 5 yds to the FrsSt 30Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+1
41.2%
Jordan Mims run for 1 yd to the FrsSt 31Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 31
0
41.2%
Jake Haener pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:44
4TH & 4
OWN 31
0
41.7%
Carson King punt for 31 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 2PUNT
7 plays · 15 yds · 3:0042% → 42%
Q1 13:44
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+3
41.7%
Greg Bell run for 3 yds to the SDSt 41Similar
Q1 13:44
2ND & 7
OWN 41
+19
41.8%
Lucas Johnson pass complete to Elijah Kothe for 19 yds to the FrsSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:44
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+3
41.8%
Lucas Johnson pass complete to Daniel Bellinger for 3 yds to the FrsSt 37Similar
Q1 13:44
2ND & 7
OPP 37
-10
41.8%
BELL, Greg rush to the left for a gain of 8 yards to the FST29 (WILLIAMS, Evan). PENALTY SDS Holding enforced 10 yards from the FST37 to the FST47 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 13:44
2ND & 17
OPP 47
0
41.7%
Greg Bell run for no gain to the FrsSt 47Similar
Q1 13:44
3RD & 17
OPP 47
0
41.7%
Lucas Johnson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:44
4TH & 17
OPP 47
0
42.4%
Matt Araiza punt for 33 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 3TD
16 plays · 86 yds · 6:5157% → 61%
Q1 10:44
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+3
42.6%
Jake Haener pass complete to Tre Watson for 3 yds to the FrsSt 17Similar
Q1 9:48
2ND & 7
OWN 17
+6
43.0%
Jalen Cropper run for 6 yds to the FrsSt 23Similar
Q1 9:48
3RD & 1
OWN 23
+5
43.0%
Jordan Mims run for 5 yds to the FrsSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:48
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
42.9%
Jake Haener pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:48
2ND & 10
OWN 28
+5
43.0%
Jake Haener pass complete to Josh Kelly for 5 yds to the FrsSt 33Similar
Q1 9:48
3RD & 5
OWN 33
+5
43.0%
Jake Haener pass complete to Keric Wheatfall for 5 yds to the FrsSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:48
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+18
42.7%
Jake Haener pass complete to Jalen Cropper for 18 yds to the SDSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:48
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+4
42.4%
Jake Haener run for 4 yds to the SDSt 40Similar
Q1 9:48
2ND & 6
OPP 40
0
42.4%
Jake Haener pass complete to Jalen Cropper for no gain to the SDSt 40Similar
Q1 9:48
3RD & 6
OPP 40
+8
42.5%
Jake Haener pass complete to Jalen Cropper for 8 yds to the SDSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:48
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+9
42.3%
Jordan Mims run for 9 yds to the SDSt 23Similar
Q1 9:48
2ND & 1
OPP 23
0
42.2%
Jake Haener pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:48
3RD & 1
OPP 23
+2
42.4%
Jordan Mims run for 2 yds to the SDSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:48
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+8
42.2%
Jake Haener pass complete to Josh Kelly for 8 yds to the SDSt 13Similar
Q1 3:53
2ND & 2
OPP 13
+13
39.1%
J. Mims run for 13 yds for a TD, (C. Silva KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 4INT
6 plays · 37 yds · 2:5441% → 40%
Q1 3:49
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+4
40.5%
Greg Bell run for 4 yds to the SDSt 18Similar
Q1 3:49
2ND & 6
OWN 18
-3
40.6%
Greg Bell run for a loss of 3 yards to the SDSt 15Similar
Q1 3:49
3RD & 9
OWN 15
+39
40.1%
Lucas Johnson pass complete to Elijah Kothe for 39 yds to the FrsSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:49
1ST & 10
OPP 46
-3
42.0%
Chance Bell run for a loss of 3 yards to the FrsSt 49Similar
Q1 3:49
2ND & 13
OPP 49
0
41.3%
Lucas Johnson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 0:55
3RD & 13
OPP 49
0
40.3%
Lucas Johnson pass intercepted return for no gain to the SDSt 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 5TD
4 plays · 31 yds · 1:3862% → 68%
Q1 0:55
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+6
38.3%
Jake Haener pass complete to Juan Rodriguez for 6 yds to the SDSt 25Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 4
OPP 25
-1
38.1%
Jake Haener pass complete to Jalen Cropper for a loss of 1 yard to the SDSt 26Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 5
OPP 26
+10
38.3%
Jake Haener pass complete to Keric Wheatfall for 10 yds to the SDSt 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:17
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+16
32.4%
J. Haener pass,to K. Wheatfall for 16 yds for a TD, (C. Silva KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 6PUNT
7 plays · 17 yds · 2:1735% → 32%
Q2 14:10
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+6
35.2%
Greg Bell run for 6 yds to the SDSt 46Similar
Q2 14:10
2ND & 4
OWN 46
+9
35.4%
JOHNSON, Lucas pass to the left incomplete intended for MATTHEWS, Jesse thrown to the FST39. PENALTY FST Pass Interference on FREE, Wylan enforced at the spot of the foul for 9 yards to the FST45 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 14:10
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
35.7%
Lucas Johnson pass complete to Greg Bell for no gain to the FrsSt 45Similar
Q2 14:10
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+2
35.7%
Greg Bell run for 2 yds to the FrsSt 43Similar
Q2 14:10
3RD & 8
OPP 43
0
35.5%
Lucas Johnson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:53
4TH & 8
OPP 43
0
33.0%
Matt Araiza punt for 35 ydsSimilar
Q2 11:53
1ST & 10
OWN 8
-39
31.7%
HAENER, Jake pass up the middle complete for 39 yards to CROPPER, Jalen caught at the FST25 and advanced to the FST47 (BARFIELD, Cedarious). PENALTY FST Holding on SMITH, Matt enforced half the distance from the goal, 4 yards from the FST8 to the FST4 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 7FG
5 plays · 60 yds · 2:4968% → 74%
Q2 11:53
1ST & 14
OWN 4
+69
31.7%
Jake Haener pass complete to Josh Kelly for 69 yds to the SDSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:53
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+3
30.4%
Jordan Mims run for 3 yds to the SDSt 24Similar
Q2 11:53
2ND & 7
OPP 24
0
30.4%
Jake Haener pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:53
3RD & 7
OPP 24
0
30.7%
Jake Haener sacked by Cameron Thomas for 0 yards to the SDSt 32Similar
Q2 9:04
4TH & 15
OPP 32
+49
25.6%
Cesar Silva 49 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · 11 yds · 1:3629% → 28%
Q2 8:56
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+11
28.9%
Lucas Johnson pass complete to BJ Busbee for 11 yds to the FrsSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:56
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
29.3%
Lucas Johnson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:56
2ND & 10
OPP 48
0
29.2%
Lucas Johnson run for no gain to the FrsSt 48Similar
Q2 8:56
3RD & 10
OPP 48
0
28.8%
Lucas Johnson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:20
4TH & 10
OPP 48
0
28.2%
Matt Araiza punt for 33 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 9FG
8 plays · 75 yds · 2:4875% → 76%
Q2 7:20
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+9
25.1%
Jake Haener pass complete to Tre Watson for 9 yds to the FrsSt 24Similar
Q2 7:20
2ND & 1
OWN 24
0
24.8%
Jordan Mims run for no gain to the FrsSt 24Similar
Q2 7:20
3RD & 1
OWN 24
+59
25.2%
Jordan Mims run for 59 yds to the SDSt 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:20
1ST & 10
OPP 17
0
23.9%
Jake Haener pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:40
2ND & 10
OPP 17
+7
23.3%
Jake Haener pass complete to Tre Watson for 7 yds to the SDSt 10Similar
Q2 4:40
3RD & 3
OPP 10
0
23.0%
Jake Haener pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:32
4TH & 3
OPP 10
+27
23.6%
Cesar Silva 27 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 10TD
7 plays · 82 yds · 2:1224% → 34%
Q2 4:27
1ST & 10
OWN 18
0
23.6%
Lucas Johnson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:27
2ND & 10
OWN 18
+16
23.5%
Lucas Johnson pass complete to Elijah Kothe for 16 yds to the SDSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:27
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+31
23.9%
Lucas Johnson pass complete to Elijah Kothe for 31 yds to the FrsSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:27
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+7
26.2%
Lucas Johnson pass complete to Daniel Bellinger for 7 yds to the FrsSt 28Similar
Q2 4:27
2ND & 3
OPP 28
-5
26.5%
SAN DIEGO ST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the FrsSt 33Similar
Q2 4:27
2ND & 8
OPP 33
+14
26.3%
Lucas Johnson run for 14 yds to the FrsSt 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:15
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+19
33.9%
L. Johnson pass,to T. Shavers for 19 yds for a TD, (M. Araiza KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 11MISSED FG
10 plays · 48 yds · 1:3773% → 76%
Q2 2:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
26.8%
Jake Haener pass complete to Josh Kelly for 1 yd to the FrsSt 26Similar
Q2 2:15
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
26.9%
Jake Haener pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:15
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+16
27.1%
Jake Haener pass complete to Keric Wheatfall for 16 yds to the FrsSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:15
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
25.9%
Jake Haener pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:15
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+38
26.0%
Jake Haener pass complete to Jalen Cropper for 38 yds to the SDSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:15
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
25.2%
Jake Haener pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:15
2ND & 10
OPP 20
0
25.3%
Jake Haener pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:43
3RD & 10
OPP 20
0
22.5%
Jake Haener sacked by Jonah Tavai for 0 yards to the SDSt 27Similar
Q2 0:38
4TH & 17
OPP 27
+44
24.3%
Cesar Silva 44 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 12MISSED FG
7 plays · 35 yds · 0:3530% → 31%
Q2 0:38
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+20
29.5%
Lucas Johnson pass complete to Tyrell Shavers for 20 yds to the SDSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:18
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+1
30.2%
Lucas Johnson run for 1 yd to the SDSt 48Similar
Q2 0:18
2ND & 9
OWN 48
+14
30.2%
Lucas Johnson run for 14 yds to the FrsSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:07
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
31.2%
Lucas Johnson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:03
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+55
31.1%
Matt Araiza 55 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 14PUNT
6 plays · 7 yds · 0:5329% → 26%
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
29.1%
Lucas Johnson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 14:54
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+5
29.0%
FRESNO ST Penalty, Offsides (David Perales) to the SDSt 43Similar
Q3 14:54
2ND & 5
OWN 43
+2
29.7%
Greg Bell run for 2 yds to the SDSt 45Similar
Q3 14:54
3RD & 3
OWN 45
0
29.1%
Lucas Johnson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 14:01
4TH & 3
OWN 45
+4
28.2%
Matt Araiza punt for 52 yds , Zane Pope returns for 4 yds to the FrsSt 7Similar
Q3 14:01
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+15
26.0%
HAENER, Jake pass to the left incomplete intended for KELLY, Josh thrown to the FST37. PENALTY SDS Pass Interference on HAWKINS, Tayler enforced 15 yards to the FST22 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 15FUMBLE
11 plays · 80 yds · 3:4274% → 79%
Q3 14:01
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+1
25.6%
Jordan Mims run for 1 yd to the FrsSt 23Similar
Q3 14:01
2ND & 9
OWN 23
0
25.6%
Jake Haener pass complete to Raymond Pauwels Jr. for no gain to the FrsSt 23Similar
Q3 14:01
3RD & 9
OWN 23
+24
26.1%
Jake Haener pass complete to Josh Kelly for 24 yds to the FrsSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:01
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+1
24.1%
Jordan Mims run for 1 yd to the FrsSt 48Similar
Q3 14:01
2ND & 9
OWN 48
0
24.1%
Jake Haener pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 14:01
3RD & 9
OWN 48
+15
24.5%
HAENER, Jake pass to the right incomplete intended for CROPPER, Jalen thrown to the SDS20. PENALTY SDS Pass Interference on THOMPSON, Trenton enforced 15 yards to the SDS37 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 14:01
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+3
24.0%
Jordan Mims run for 3 yds to the SDSt 34Similar
Q3 10:42
2ND & 7
OPP 34
0
21.2%
Jalen Cropper pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:19
3RD & 7
OPP 34
+21
21.3%
Jake Haener pass complete to Jalen Cropper for 21 yds fumbled, recovered by SDSt Patrick McMorrisSimilar
Q3 10:19
3RD & 7
OPP 34
+21
21.3%
Jake Haener pass complete to Jalen Cropper for 21 yds fumbled, recovered by SDSt Patrick McMorrisSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 16PUNT
8 plays · 25 yds · 2:1627% → 25%
Q3 10:19
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
27.3%
Lucas Johnson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:19
2ND & 10
OWN 28
+12
26.8%
Lucas Johnson run for 12 yds to the SDSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:19
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+6
27.8%
Jordan Byrd run for 6 yds to the SDSt 46Similar
Q3 10:19
2ND & 4
OWN 46
+7
28.2%
Lucas Johnson pass complete to Jordan Byrd for 7 yds to the FrsSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:19
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
28.7%
Lucas Johnson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:19
2ND & 10
OPP 47
0
28.4%
Jordan Byrd run for no gain to the FrsSt 47Similar
Q3 10:19
3RD & 10
OPP 47
0
27.5%
Lucas Johnson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:03
4TH & 10
OPP 47
0
25.2%
Matt Araiza punt for 47 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 17PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:0579% → 79%
Q3 8:03
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
21.2%
Jordan Mims run for 5 yds to the FrsSt 25Similar
Q3 8:03
2ND & 5
OWN 25
+2
21.1%
Jordan Mims run for 2 yds to the FrsSt 27Similar
Q3 8:03
3RD & 3
OWN 27
+2
21.5%
Jake Haener pass complete to Jordan Mims for 2 yds to the FrsSt 29Similar
Q3 6:58
4TH & 1
OWN 29
0
21.5%
Carson King punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Jordan Byrd at the SDSt 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 18FUMBLE
2 plays · 12 yds · 0:3425% → 26%
Q3 6:58
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+13
24.9%
Greg Bell run for 13 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:24
1ST & 10
50
-1
25.7%
Lucas Johnson run for a loss of 1 yard to the SDSt 49 fumbled, recovered by FrsSt Kevin AtkinsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 19FG
7 plays · 24 yds · 2:2483% → 88%
Q3 6:24
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+11
17.0%
Jordan Mims run for 11 yds to the SDSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:24
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+3
16.8%
Jordan Mims run for 3 yds to the SDSt 35Similar
Q3 6:24
2ND & 7
OPP 35
+7
16.6%
Jordan Mims run for 7 yds to the SDSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:24
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+3
16.6%
Jordan Mims run for 3 yds to the SDSt 25Similar
Q3 6:24
2ND & 7
OPP 25
0
16.6%
Jake Haener pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 6:24
3RD & 7
OPP 25
0
17.0%
Jake Haener pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:00
4TH & 7
OPP 25
+42
12.4%
Cesar Silva 42 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 20TD
10 plays · 80 yds · 3:3816% → 29%
Q3 3:51
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+6
15.8%
Greg Bell run for 6 yds to the SDSt 26Similar
Q3 3:51
2ND & 4
OWN 26
+29
16.3%
Lucas Johnson pass complete to Jesse Matthews for 29 yds to the FrsSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:51
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-2
18.2%
Greg Bell run for a loss of 2 yards to the FrsSt 47Similar
Q3 3:51
2ND & 12
OPP 47
0
17.7%
Lucas Johnson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:51
3RD & 12
OPP 47
+22
17.2%
Greg Bell run for 22 yds to the FrsSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:51
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+9
19.4%
Lucas Johnson run for 9 yds to the FrsSt 16Similar
Q3 3:51
2ND & 1
OPP 16
0
19.4%
Lucas Johnson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:51
3RD & 1
OPP 16
+2
18.9%
Greg Bell run for 2 yds to the FrsSt 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:51
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+11
19.4%
Lucas Johnson run for 11 yds to the FrsSt 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:13
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
28.9%
Greg Bell 3 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 21PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:2378% → 77%
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
22.3%
Jordan Mims run for 9 yds to the FrsSt 34Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 1
OWN 34
0
21.8%
Jordan Mims run for no gain to the FrsSt 34Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 34
0
22.3%
Jordan Mims run for no gain to the FrsSt 34Similar
Q4 13:37
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+16
23.0%
Carson King punt for 31 yds FRESNO ST Penalty, Kick Catch Interference on WRIGHT III, Rodney enforced at the deadball spot for (-15 Yards) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 22PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:3726% → 21%
Q4 13:30
1ST & 10
50
+4
25.7%
Greg Bell run for 4 yds to the FrsSt 46Similar
Q4 13:30
2ND & 6
OPP 46
+3
26.2%
BJ Busbee run for 3 yds to the FrsSt 43Similar
Q4 13:30
3RD & 3
OPP 43
0
26.4%
Lucas Johnson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:53
4TH & 3
OPP 43
0
21.0%
Matt Araiza punt for 33 yds, downed at the FrsSt 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 23PUNT
16 plays · 52 yds · 5:1082% → 94%
Q4 11:53
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+8
18.3%
Jake Haener pass complete to Tre Watson for 8 yds to the FrsSt 18Similar
Q4 11:53
2ND & 2
OWN 18
+4
17.8%
Jordan Mims run for 4 yds to the FrsSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:53
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
17.9%
Jake Haener pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:53
2ND & 10
OWN 22
+11
18.1%
Jake Haener pass complete to Ty Jones for 11 yds to the FrsSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:53
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+1
17.5%
Jordan Mims run for 1 yd to the FrsSt 34Similar
Q4 11:53
2ND & 9
OWN 34
+4
17.5%
Jake Haener pass complete to Ty Jones for 4 yds to the FrsSt 38Similar
Q4 11:53
3RD & 5
OWN 38
+18
16.8%
Jake Haener pass complete to Ty Jones for 18 yds to the SDSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:53
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-6
15.7%
Jordan Mims run for a loss of 6 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 11:53
2ND & 16
50
0
16.4%
Jake Haener pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:53
3RD & 16
50
+15
17.0%
HAENER, Jake pass to the right incomplete intended for BROOKS, Erik thrown to the SDS7. PENALTY SDS Unnecessary Roughness on MCDONALD, Caden enforced 15 yards from the SDS50 to the SDS35 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 11:53
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+2
15.3%
Jordan Mims run for 2 yds to the SDSt 33Similar
Q4 6:54
2ND & 8
OPP 33
0
4.8%
Jake Haener pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:54
3RD & 8
OPP 33
0
5.1%
Jake Haener pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:54
4TH & 8
OPP 33
-5
5.9%
FRESNO ST Penalty, Delay Of Game (TEAM) to the SDSt 38Similar
Q4 6:43
4TH & 13
OPP 38
0
5.7%
Carson King punt for 37 yds, downed at the SDSt 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 24INT
6 plays · 23 yds · 1:2913% → 11%
Q4 6:43
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+1
13.0%
Greg Bell run for 1 yd to the SDSt 2Similar
Q4 6:43
2ND & 9
OWN 2
+10
12.7%
Lucas Johnson pass complete to Jesse Matthews for 10 yds to the SDSt 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:43
1ST & 10
OWN 12
0
13.4%
Lucas Johnson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:43
2ND & 10
OWN 12
+3
13.1%
Chance Bell run for 3 yds to the SDSt 15Similar
Q4 6:43
3RD & 7
OWN 15
+9
12.6%
Lucas Johnson pass complete to Daniel Bellinger for 9 yds to the SDSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:14
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
10.7%
Lucas Johnson pass intercepted return for no gain to the SDSt 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 25TD
2 plays · 31 yds · 0:4696% → 98%
Q4 5:14
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+16
4.1%
Jordan Mims run for 16 yds to the SDSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:28
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+15
1.6%
Jordan Mims run for 15 yds for a TD, (Cesar Silva KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 26TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 3:223% → 8%
Q4 4:28
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
3.0%
William Haskell pass complete to Brionne Penny for 6 yds to the SDSt 31Similar
Q4 4:28
2ND & 4
OWN 31
0
2.9%
William Haskell pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:28
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+7
2.9%
Kaegun Williams run for 7 yds to the SDSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:28
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+3
2.9%
William Haskell run for 3 yds to the SDSt 41Similar
Q4 4:28
2ND & 7
OWN 41
+6
3.0%
William Haskell pass complete to Mekhi Shaw for 6 yds to the SDSt 47Similar
Q4 4:28
3RD & 1
OWN 47
+11
3.1%
Kaegun Williams run for 11 yds to the FrsSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:28
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+15
3.2%
William Haskell pass complete to Mekhi Shaw for 15 yds to the FrsSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:28
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+5
3.7%
Kaegun Williams run for 5 yds to the FrsSt 22Similar
Q4 4:28
2ND & 5
OPP 22
0
3.7%
William Haskell pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:28
3RD & 5
OPP 22
0
3.5%
William Haskell pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:11
4TH & 5
OPP 22
+15
2.3%
HASKELL, Will pass to the right incomplete intended for RICHARDSON, Isaiah thrown to the FST0. PENALTY FST Pass Interference on BLAND, DaRon enforced at the spot of the foul for 15 yards to the FST7 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 1:06
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
8.4%
William Haskell run for 7 yds for a TD, (Matt Araiza KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 27END OF 4TH QUARTER
2 plays · 12 yds · 1:0698% → 98%
Q4 1:06
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+9
2.4%
Jordan Mims run for 9 yds to the SDSt 35Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 1
OPP 35
+3
2.1%
Jordan Mims run for 3 yds to the SDSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 0:13
Greg Bell 3 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)
+9.4
TD · Q2 2:15
L. Johnson pass,to T. Shavers for 19 yds for a TD, (M. Araiza KICK)
+7.6
TD · Q4 1:06
William Haskell run for 7 yds for a TD, (Matt Araiza KICK)
+6.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com