San Diego State

Profile vs. FBS, 2022

Farther out is better on every spoke. Dashed ring: the FBS median.

• EPA per play

  Expected points added on an average snap: how much each play moved the scoring odds.
  Offense+0.0424th
  Defense+0.0185th
• Success rate

  Share of snaps that stayed on schedule: half the yards needed on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of them on 3rd or 4th.
  Offense37.7%13th
  Defense38.5%81st
• Explosiveness

  Average EPA on the successful snaps: how big the good plays were.
  Offense+1.3073rd
  Defense+1.2067th
• Rushing EPA

  EPA per designed run.
  Offense−0.0212th
  Defense−0.0490th
• Passing EPA

  EPA per pass play.
  Offense+0.2454th
  Defense+0.1854th
• Standard downs

  Success rate on downs where either a run or a pass makes sense, like 1st and 10 or 3rd and 2.
  Offense42.1%8th
  Defense43.9%82nd
• Passing downs

  Success rate on downs that all but force a pass, like 2nd and 8 or longer, or 3rd and 5 or longer.
  Offense29.7%38th
  Defense27.5%74th
• Line yards

  Rushing yards per carry credited to the offensive line, weighting the first few yards most.
  Offense2.757th
  Defense2.9370th
• Stuff rate

  Share of runs stopped at or behind the line of scrimmage.
  Offense22.0%5th
  Defense18.8%67th
• Havoc

  Share of snaps with a tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception or pass breakup.
  Offense19.3%15th
  Defense17.5%68th

Percentiles among the 131 FBS teams this season, where higher is better for the offense and the defense alike (a defense's numbers are what it allowed). The line in each bar is the FBS median. Garbage time excluded. Source: CollegeFootballData.

Drives vs. expectation, 2022

Every snap has an expected-points value: what a drive from that spot, down and distance is worth on average. A drive over expected beat its starting spot; defense counts what San Diego State allowed, so lower is better. The adjusted number fits every team against the opponents it actually played, so it leans toward average early in a season. Ranks are among FBS teams.

Game by game

1. L
   ARIZ
2. W
   IDST
3. L
   UTAH
4. W
   TOL
5. L
   BOIS
6. W
   HAW
7. W
   NEV
8. L
   FRES
9. W
   UNLV
10. W
    SJSU
11. W
    UNM
12. L
    AF
13. L
    MTSU

Bars above the line: better than expected for San Diego State.

Players, 2022

1. Jalen MaydenQB290 plays · +0.276 pts/play · 45th of 234 QBs
   1.50WAR0.83 to 2.20
2. Braxton BurmeisterQB67 plays · +0.139 pts/play · 183rd of 234 QBs
   0.17WAR0.04 to 0.32
3. Tyrell ShaversWR47 plays · +0.175 pts/play · 108th of 455 WRs
   0.15WAR0.08 to 0.23
4. Jesse MatthewsWR49 plays · +0.161 pts/play · 116th of 455 WRs
   0.15WAR0.07 to 0.23
5. Jack BrowningPK66 plays · +0.107 pts/play · 8th of 110 kickers
   0.13WAR0.06 to 0.22
6. Kenan Christon IIRB60 plays · +0.104 pts/play · 235th of 384 RBs
   0.12WAR0.07 to 0.16
7. Mekhi ShawWR31 plays · +0.192 pts/play · 191st of 455 WRs
   0.11WAR0.07 to 0.16
8. Jordan ByrdRB88 plays · +0.052 pts/play · 272nd of 384 RBs
   0.09WAR0.00 to 0.17

By position group, against FBS

Linemen and defenders are valued as units, in points per game against the median FBS unit, because play-by-play doesn't say who was on the field. Players are valued against a replacement-level backup, so the two aren't added together.

Wins above replacement credits each play's expected points to the players involved, adjusted for the opponent, and compares San Diego State's players with a typical backup; 53 points make a win. Only snaps while the game was in doubt count, so a starter on a team that blows opponents out plays fewer of them: read value per play beside WAR. The line under each player (or the range on a phone) is the 90% interval. Ranks are among FBS teams and players. How this works

What it had and what it did, 2022

• Roster talent

  247Sports' talent composite: the recruiting ratings of every player on the roster, transfers included.
  372372114th of 129Roster talent: 372, 114th of 129 in FBS
• Recruiting

  Average 247Sports class score over this season's class and the three before it.
  15815873rd of 129Recruiting: 158, 73rd of 129 in FBS
• Returning production

  Share of last season's production (expected points added) by players still on the roster.
  34%34%101st of 128Returning production: 34%, 101st of 128 in FBS
• SP+ rating

  The result: Bill Connelly's opponent-adjusted rating, points per game better than an average FBS team.
  −4.4−4.483rd of 129SP+ rating: −4.4, 83rd of 129 in FBS

Ranks and bars among the 129 FBS teams with a talent rating this season, best first; the line in each bar is the FBS median.

Talent conversion

Conversion by season

Fourth-down calls vs. the numbers, 2022

Each real fourth down is valued three ways (go for it, kick, punt) from the score, clock and field position before the snap, using league-wide odds rather than San Diego State's own. A call that differs gives up the gap to the best option; gaps under one point are close calls, and the 6 clear-cut ones account for 0.15 of the 0.23 expected wins. The model sees the situation, not the injury report, so a call it disagrees with can still be right. Ranks are among FBS teams; 1st gave up the least.

Costliest calls against the numbers

1. vs TOLQ4 6:09 4th & 2 at SDSU 49, up 3Punted; the numbers favored going for it−3.6 pts
2. at NEVQ4 5:54 4th & 1 at SDSU 36, down 1Punted; the numbers favored going for it−3.5 pts
3. vs UNLVQ4 12:41 4th & 9 at SDSU 21, up 7Went for it; the numbers favored punting−3.3 pts
4. at NEVQ3 9:01 4th & 2 at NEV 6, down 1Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it−1.9 pts
5. at BOISQ4 13:10 4th & 3 at BOIS 47, down 8Punted; the numbers favored going for it−1.8 pts
6. vs ARIZQ4 9:51 4th & 14 at ARIZ 27, down 18Went for it; the numbers favored a field goal−1.4 pts
7. vs TOLQ4 13:00 4th & 3 at SDSU 48, up 10Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.9 pts
8. vs MTSUQ2 7:23 4th & 2 at MTSU 26, up 11Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.7 pts

Record vs. expectation, 2022

66th of 131 FBS teams at beating the model's pregame expectations

Expected wins adds up San Diego State's chance of winning each game as the model saw it at kickoff - a 70% favorite counts 0.7.

1. L

   ARIZ
2. W

   IDST
3. L

   UTAH
4. W

   TOL
5. L

   BOIS
6. W

   HAW
7. W

   NEV
8. L

   FRES
9. W

   UNLV
10. W

    SJSU
11. W

    UNM
12. L

    AF
13. L

    MTSU

What moved it, 2022

Every game starts at San Diego State's pregame chance; everything after that is the field. The model's own breakdown of each game's final play splits the on-field part by what drove it, and the parts add up exactly. How it works →

• Scoreboard−0.48
• Possession & field position−0.04
• Clock−0.09
• Timeouts+0.10
• Other+0.01
• Less the pregame edge, counted before kickoff−0.08

Game by game

• ARIZL 20-38 vs ARIZ60% → 2%Before kickoff +10 · On the field −58: Scoreboard −57, Clock −2
• IDSTW 38-7 vs IDST97% → 100%Before kickoff +47 · On the field +3: Scoreboard +5
• UTAHL 7-35 at UTAH5% → 0%Before kickoff −45 · On the field −5: Scoreboard −8
• TOLW 17-14 vs TOL40% → 96%Before kickoff −10 · On the field +56: Scoreboard +38, Timeouts +2
• BOISL 13-35 at BOIS28% → 0%Before kickoff −22 · On the field −28: Scoreboard −32
• HAWW 16-14 vs HAW94% → 87%Before kickoff +44 · On the field −7: Scoreboard +10, Timeouts +1
• NEVW 23-7 at NEV71% → 17%Before kickoff +21 · On the field −54: Scoreboard −17, Possession & field position −3
• FRESL 28-32 at FRES19% → 23%Before kickoff −31 · On the field +5: Scoreboard −11, Possession & field position −1
• UNLVW 14-10 vs UNLV63% → 97%Before kickoff +13 · On the field +34: Scoreboard +31, Timeouts +2
• SJSUW 43-27 vs SJSU41% → 99%Before kickoff −9 · On the field +59: Scoreboard +48, Timeouts +2
• UNMW 34-10 at UNM83% → 100%Before kickoff +33 · On the field +16: Scoreboard +24, Clock +1
• AFL 3-13 vs AF41% → 4%Before kickoff −9 · On the field −36: Scoreboard −47, Clock −3
• MTSUL 23-25 vs MTSU67% → 25%Before kickoff +17 · On the field −42: Scoreboard −32, Clock −4

Points of win probability, from San Diego State's side.

Closest call

TOL 14-17 SDSU (2022) - San Diego State dropped to a 13.4% win probability before pulling it out.