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ARIZ

Arizona 38 at San Diego State 20

SDSU
2022 · Week 1 · Sep 3, 2022 · Snapdragon Stadium
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Win probability · SDSU
modelSDSU aheadARIZ aheadconfidence bandkey playSDSU scoreARIZ score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDFGTDTDTDTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 12:07 · Jack Browning punt for 15 yds
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+49.0+24.50−24.5−49.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 123Home team on offense−32.3Score differential−18.1Pregame prior+1.9Garbage-time factor−12.8Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−4.2Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−3.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 10:19: Jayden de Laura pass complete to Tetairoa McMillan for 6 yds for a TD, (Tyler Loop KICK) — ARIZ win probability +11.1 pts (now 62%) (top driver: ARIZ has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 4:49: Braxton Burmeister pass complete to Tyrell Shavers for 11 yds for a TD, (Jack Browning KICK) — SDSU win probability +6.5 pts (now 51%) (top driver: SDSU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 0:28: Jayden de Laura pass complete to Jacob Cowing for 4 yds for a TD, (Tyler Loop KICK) — ARIZ win probability +15.1 pts (now 75%) (top driver: ARIZ has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 12:40: Jayden de Laura pass complete to Jacob Cowing for 25 yds for a TD, (Tyler Loop KICK) — ARIZ win probability +18.2 pts (now 87%) (top driver: ARIZ has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 13:02: DJ Williams run for 10 yds for a TD, (Tyler Loop KICK) — ARIZ win probability +14.8 pts (now 95%) (top driver: ARIZ has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
SDSU made the numbers' call on 7 of 10ARIZ made the numbers' call on 5 of 7
  1. Q1 12:41SDSU 4th & 4 at SDSU 27, tied
    Close callPunted · 67.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.8%
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    67.8%−<0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 12:41ARIZ 4th & 1 at ARIZ 35, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 32.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    32.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    32.1%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 7:06ARIZ 4th & 8 at SDSU 8, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 33.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.1%−0.1
    26% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    33.3%
    90% to make
    Punt
    32.0%−1.2
    average punt
  4. Q1 6:18SDSU 4th & 7 at SDSU 28, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 65.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.5%−0.2
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    65.7%
    average punt
  5. Q2 13:31SDSU 4th & 13 at ARIZ 27, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 56.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.5%−0.7
    20% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    56.2%
    62% to make
    Punt
    54.0%−2.2
    average punt
  6. Q2 9:12SDSU 4th & 10 at SDSU 35, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 47.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.3%−1.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    47.4%
    average punt
  7. Q2 4:49SDSU 4th & 3 at ARIZ 11, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 43.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    43.7%
    50% to convert
    Field goal
    43.2%−0.5
    87% to make
    Punt
    39.6%−4.1
    average punt
  8. Q3 8:49SDSU 4th & 5 at ARIZ 44, down 21
    Close callPunted · 17.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.7%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    15.6%−2.0
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    17.3%−0.3
    average punt
  9. Q3 7:46ARIZ 4th & 12 at ARIZ 1, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 89.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.6%−3.2
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    89.8%
    average punt
  10. Q3 6:55ARIZ 4th & 5 at ARIZ 23, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 76.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.1%−1.4
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    77.5%
    average punt
  11. Q3 3:36SDSU 4th & 6 at ARIZ 6, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 24.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.7%−0.3
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    23.9%
    91% to make
    Punt
    17.2%−6.8
    average punt
  12. Q4 12:07SDSU 4th & 5 at SDSU 30, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.1%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.1%
    average punt
  13. Q4 12:07SDSU 4th & 5 at SDSU 30, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.1%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.1%
    average punt
  14. Q4 10:37ARIZ 4th & 11 at SDSU 46, up 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 94.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.2%−0.6
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    93.7%−1.1
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    94.9%
    average punt
  15. Q4 9:51SDSU 4th & 14 at ARIZ 27, down 18
    Numbers favored field goal by 1.4 ptsWent for it · 6.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    4.9%−1.4
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    6.2%
    62% to make
    Punt
    2.8%−3.4
    average punt
  16. Q4 0:49ARIZ 4th & 4 at SDSU 23, up 18
    Close callWent for it · 98.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    98.6%−0.1
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    98.7%
    70% to make
    Punt
    97.8%−0.9
    average punt
  17. Q4 0:49ARIZ 4th & 4 at SDSU 23, up 18
    Close callWent for it · 98.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    98.6%−0.1
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    98.7%
    70% to make
    Punt
    97.8%−0.9
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
SDSU made the numbers' call on 1 of 1ARIZ made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
  1. Q1 3:19ARIZ Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    39.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    39.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 10:19ARIZ Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    48.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    48.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 4:49SDSU Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    50.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    50.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 0:28ARIZ Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    60.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    60.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 12:40ARIZ Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    78.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    78.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 13:02ARIZ Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    91.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    91.2%−0.3
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
SDSUDrive 1PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 2:1360% → 60%
Q1 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 21
-7
59.8%
Braxton Burmeister run for a loss of 7 yards to the SDSt 14Similar
Q1 14:54
2ND & 17
OWN 14
+10
59.8%
Chance Bell run for 10 yds to the SDSt 24Similar
Q1 14:54
3RD & 7
OWN 24
+3
59.8%
Braxton Burmeister run for 3 yds to the SDSt 27Similar
Q1 12:41
4TH & 4
OWN 27
+7
59.7%
Jack Browning punt for 54 yds , Dorian Singer returns for 7 yds to the Ariz 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 2FG
17 plays · 66 yds · 5:3540% → 41%
Q1 12:41
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+8
59.8%
Michael Wiley run for 8 yds to the Ariz 34Similar
Q1 12:41
2ND & 2
OWN 34
+1
59.6%
DJ Williams run for 1 yd to the Ariz 35Similar
Q1 12:41
3RD & 1
OWN 35
0
59.7%
DJ Williams run for no gain to the Ariz 35Similar
Q1 12:41
4TH & 1
OWN 35
+3
59.9%
Jonah Coleman run for 3 yds to the Ariz 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:41
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+4
59.7%
Rayshon Luke run for 4 yds to the Ariz 42Similar
Q1 12:41
2ND & 6
OWN 42
0
59.6%
Jayden de Laura pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:41
3RD & 6
OWN 42
+10
59.7%
Jayden de Laura pass complete to Tanner McLachlan for 10 yds to the SDSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:41
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+9
59.5%
Jayden de Laura pass complete to DJ Williams for 9 yds to the SDSt 39Similar
Q1 12:41
2ND & 1
OPP 39
+8
59.5%
DJ Williams run for 8 yds to the SDSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:41
1ST & 10
OPP 31
-3
59.5%
Anthony Simpson run for a loss of 3 yards to the SDSt 34Similar
Q1 12:41
2ND & 13
OPP 34
0
59.6%
Jayden de Laura pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:41
3RD & 13
OPP 34
+25
59.7%
Jayden de Laura pass complete to Jacob Cowing for 25 yds to the SDSt 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:41
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
0
59.5%
Jayden de Laura pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:17
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+1
58.7%
Jayden de Laura pass complete to Dorian Singer for 1 yd to the SDSt 8Similar
Q1 7:17
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
0
58.9%
Jayden de Laura pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:06
4TH & GOAL
OPP 8
+25
58.9%
Tyler Loop 25 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:4859% → 59%
Q1 7:06
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
59.1%
Chance Bell run for 3 yds to the SDSt 28Similar
Q1 7:06
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
59.2%
Braxton Burmeister pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:06
3RD & 7
OWN 28
0
58.8%
Braxton Burmeister pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:18
4TH & 7
OWN 28
0
58.5%
punt blocked by Dalton Johnson blocked by Dalton JohnsonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 4TD
7 plays · 40 yds · 2:5942% → 47%
Q1 6:18
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+5
58.3%
Rayshon Luke run for 5 yds to the SDSt 35Similar
Q1 6:18
2ND & 5
OPP 35
+5
58.0%
Jayden de Laura pass complete to Dorian Singer for 5 yds to the SDSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:18
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+4
58.1%
DJ Williams run for 4 yds to the SDSt 26Similar
Q1 6:18
2ND & 6
OPP 26
+3
58.0%
Jonah Coleman run for 3 yds to the SDSt 23Similar
Q1 6:18
3RD & 3
OPP 23
+4
58.3%
Jayden de Laura pass complete to Jacob Cowing for 4 yds to the SDSt 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:18
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+2
58.0%
Jayden de Laura pass complete to Michael Wiley for 2 yds to the SDSt 17Similar
Q1 3:19
2ND & 8
OPP 17
+17
53.0%
Jayden de Laura pass complete to Jacob Cowing for 17 yds for a TD, (Tyler Loop KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 5FG
12 plays · 48 yds · 4:4854% → 53%
Q1 3:19
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
53.8%
Cam Davis run for 3 yds to the SDSt 28Similar
Q1 3:19
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+15
54.0%
Braxton Burmeister pass complete to Jesse Matthews for 15 yds to the SDSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:19
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+4
54.4%
Braxton Burmeister run for 4 yds to the SDSt 47Similar
Q1 3:19
2ND & 6
OWN 47
+6
54.7%
Cam Davis run for 6 yds to the Ariz 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:19
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+10
54.9%
Jordan Byrd run for 10 yds to the Ariz 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:19
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+6
54.9%
Jordan Byrd run for 6 yds to the Ariz 31Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 4
OPP 31
+7
53.8%
Braxton Burmeister pass complete to Kenan Christon for 7 yds to the Ariz 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+8
53.8%
Braxton Burmeister run for 8 yds to the Ariz 16Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 2
OPP 16
0
53.8%
William Haskell pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 2
OPP 16
-5
53.0%
SAN DIEGO ST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Ariz 21Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 7
OPP 21
-6
53.0%
Braxton Burmeister sacked by Jalen Harris for a loss of 6 yards to the Ariz 27Similar
Q2 13:31
4TH & 13
OPP 27
+44
53.4%
Jack Browning 44 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 6TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 3:1247% → 62%
Q2 13:31
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
52.8%
Jayden de Laura pass complete to Michael Wiley for 7 yds to the Ariz 32Similar
Q2 13:31
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+3
52.2%
Michael Wiley run for 3 yds to the Ariz 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:31
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
52.5%
Rayshon Luke run for no gain to the Ariz 35Similar
Q2 13:31
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+14
52.7%
Jayden de Laura pass complete to Dorian Singer for 14 yds to the Ariz 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:31
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+24
51.5%
Jayden de Laura pass complete to Dorian Singer for 24 yds to the SDSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:29
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+14
49.5%
SAN DIEGO ST Penalty, Face mask (14 yards) (Michael Shawcroft) to the SDSt 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:29
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
0
49.4%
Jayden de Laura pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:19
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
38.3%
Jayden de Laura pass complete to Tetairoa McMillan for 6 yds for a TD, (Tyler Loop KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 7PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 10:1944% → 32%
Q2 10:19
2ND & 10
OWN 35
0
43.8%
Chance Bell run for no gain to the SDSt 35Similar
Q2 9:12
4TH & 10
OWN 35
+16
42.2%
Jack Browning punt for 57 yds , Dorian Singer returns for 16 yds to the Ariz 24Similar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
33.3%
Braxton Burmeister pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:00
3RD & 10
OWN 35
0
32.2%
Braxton Burmeister pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 8FUMBLE
2 plays · 8 yds · 1:5360% → 63%
Q2 10:19
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+3
39.7%
Jonah Coleman run for 3 yds to the Ariz 27Similar
Q2 8:26
2ND & 7
OWN 27
+5
37.2%
Jayden de Laura pass complete to Dorian Singer for 5 yds fumbled, forced by Cedarious Barfield, recovered by SDSt Cedarious BarfieldSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 9TD
7 plays · 32 yds · 3:3745% → 51%
Q2 8:26
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+8
45.0%
Cam Davis run for 8 yds to the Ariz 24Similar
Q2 8:26
2ND & 2
OPP 24
+1
45.0%
Cam Davis run for 1 yd to the Ariz 23Similar
Q2 8:26
3RD & 1
OPP 23
+5
44.2%
Braxton Burmeister run for 5 yds to the Ariz 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:26
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+7
45.0%
Chance Bell run for 7 yds to the Ariz 11Similar
Q2 8:26
2ND & 3
OPP 11
0
45.0%
Braxton Burmeister run for no gain to the Ariz 11Similar
Q2 8:26
3RD & 3
OPP 11
0
44.2%
Chance Bell run for no gain to the Ariz 11Similar
Q2 4:49
4TH & 3
OPP 11
+11
50.7%
Braxton Burmeister pass complete to Tyrell Shavers for 11 yds for a TD, (Jack Browning KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 10INT
4 plays · 1 yds · 1:4554% → 55%
Q2 4:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
46.3%
Jonah Coleman run for 5 yds to the Ariz 30Similar
Q2 4:49
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+1
45.7%
Jonah Coleman run for 1 yd to the Ariz 31Similar
Q2 4:49
3RD & 4
OWN 31
-5
46.1%
ARIZONA Penalty, Delay Of Game (Jalen Harris) to the Ariz 26Similar
Q2 3:04
3RD & 9
OWN 26
0
45.2%
Jayden de Laura pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 11INT
3 plays · 5 yds · 0:2951% → 51%
Q2 3:04
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+15
51.2%
Braxton Burmeister pass complete to Mark Redman for 15 yds to the Ariz 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:37
1ST & 10
OPP 25
-10
52.4%
BYRD, Jordan rush to the right for a gain of 25 yards to the ARI0, End of Play, clock 02:37. PENALTY SDS Holding enforced 10 yards from the ARI25 to the ARI35 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 2:35
1ST & 20
OPP 35
0
50.8%
Braxton Burmeister pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 12TD
6 plays · 54 yds · 2:0758% → 75%
Q2 2:35
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+29
41.6%
Jayden de Laura pass complete to Jacob Cowing for 29 yds to the SDSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:35
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
40.4%
Jayden de Laura pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:35
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+9
40.5%
Jonah Coleman run for 9 yds to the SDSt 16Similar
Q2 2:35
3RD & 1
OPP 16
+4
40.7%
Jonah Coleman run for 4 yds to the SDSt 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:35
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+8
40.4%
Jayden de Laura pass complete to Dorian Singer for 8 yds to the SDSt 4Similar
Q2 0:28
2ND & 2
OPP 4
+4
25.3%
Jayden de Laura pass complete to Jacob Cowing for 4 yds for a TD, (Tyler Loop KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 14TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 2:2069% → 87%
Q3 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 35
0
31.0%
SAN DIEGO ST Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Noah Tumblin) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
31.4%
DJ Williams run for no gain to the Ariz 25Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+10
31.5%
Jayden de Laura pass complete to Jacob Cowing for 10 yds to the Ariz 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
31.2%
Rayshon Luke run for 3 yds to the Ariz 38Similar
Q3 12:40
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+25
13.0%
Jayden de Laura pass complete to Jacob Cowing for 25 yds for a TD, (Tyler Loop KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 15PUNT
7 plays · 22 yds · 3:4420% → 15%
Q3 12:33
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+3
19.7%
Chance Bell run for 3 yds to the SDSt 37Similar
Q3 12:33
2ND & 7
OWN 37
+3
20.0%
Chance Bell run for 3 yds to the SDSt 40Similar
Q3 12:33
3RD & 4
OWN 40
+11
20.1%
Braxton Burmeister run for 11 yds to the Ariz 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:33
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+2
21.4%
Braxton Burmeister run for 2 yds to the Ariz 47Similar
Q3 12:33
2ND & 8
OPP 47
+3
21.4%
Braxton Burmeister pass complete to Jesse Matthews for 3 yds to the Ariz 44Similar
Q3 12:33
3RD & 5
OPP 44
0
21.3%
Braxton Burmeister run for no gain to the Ariz 44Similar
Q3 8:49
4TH & 5
OPP 44
0
15.1%
Jack Browning punt for 41 yds, downed at the Ariz 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 16PUNT TD
4 plays · -2 yds · 1:0390% → 76%
Q3 8:49
1ST & 10
OWN 3
0
9.9%
Jayden de Laura pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:49
2ND & 10
OWN 3
-2
9.9%
Jonah Coleman run for a loss of 2 yards to the Ariz 1Similar
Q3 8:49
3RD & 12
OWN 1
0
10.2%
Jayden de Laura pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:46
4TH & 12
OWN 1
0
23.6%
punt blocked by blocked by for a TD, (Jack Browning KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 17PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:4578% → 79%
Q3 7:40
1ST & 10
OWN 18
0
22.1%
Jayden de Laura pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:40
2ND & 10
OWN 18
+5
22.2%
DJ Williams run for 5 yds to the Ariz 23Similar
Q3 7:40
3RD & 5
OWN 23
0
22.5%
Jayden de Laura pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 6:55
4TH & 5
OWN 23
+22
21.3%
Kyle Ostendorp punt for 47 yds , Jordan Byrd returns for 22 yds to the Ariz 45 ARIZONA Penalty, Illegal Formation (TEAM) to the Ariz 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 18FG
8 plays · 37 yds · 3:1927% → 28%
Q3 6:55
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+5
26.5%
Kenan Christon run for 5 yds to the Ariz 38Similar
Q3 6:55
2ND & 5
OPP 38
+12
26.8%
William Haskell pass complete to Kenan Christon for 12 yds to the Ariz 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:55
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
27.5%
William Haskell pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 6:55
2ND & 10
OPP 26
+17
27.0%
Cam Davis run for 17 yds to the Ariz 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+2
27.5%
Cam Davis run for 2 yds to the Ariz 7Similar
Q3 6:55
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+1
27.5%
Cam Davis run for 1 yd to the Ariz 6Similar
Q3 6:55
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
0
26.6%
William Haskell run for no gain to the Ariz 6Similar
Q3 3:36
4TH & GOAL
OPP 6
+23
28.1%
Jack Browning 23 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 19TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 5:3472% → 95%
Q3 3:36
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
27.6%
DJ Williams run for 9 yds to the Ariz 34Similar
Q3 3:36
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+13
27.1%
DJ Williams run for 13 yds to the Ariz 47 for a 1ST down SAN DIEGO ST Penalty, Offsides (Keshawn Banks) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:36
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+3
25.4%
Jonah Coleman run for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 3:36
2ND & 7
50
+9
25.3%
Jayden de Laura pass complete to Michael Wiley for 9 yds to the SDSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:36
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+7
25.2%
DJ Williams run for 7 yds to the SDSt 34Similar
Q3 3:36
2ND & 3
OPP 34
+6
24.5%
DJ Williams run for 6 yds to the SDSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+5
20.3%
WILEY, Michael rush up the middle for a gain of 1 yard to the SDS27 (TAVAI, Jonah), clock 00:00. PENALTY SDS Offsides on BARFIELD, Cedarious enforced 5 yards from the SDS28 to the SDS23 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 5
OPP 23
-3
20.3%
Michael Wiley run for a loss of 3 yards to the SDSt 26Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 26
+10
20.3%
Jayden de Laura pass complete to Tetairoa McMillan for 10 yds to the SDSt 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+6
20.3%
Michael Wiley run for 6 yds to the SDSt 10Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 4
OPP 10
0
20.3%
Jayden de Laura pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:02
3RD & 4
OPP 10
+10
5.5%
DJ Williams run for 10 yds for a TD, (Tyler Loop KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 20PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:558% → 7%
Q4 13:02
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
7.9%
Jordan Byrd run for 6 yds to the SDSt 31Similar
Q4 13:02
2ND & 4
OWN 31
-1
8.2%
William Haskell pass complete to Tyrell Shavers for a loss of 1 yard to the SDSt 30Similar
Q4 13:02
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
8.0%
William Haskell pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:07
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
6.6%
Jack Browning punt for 15 ydsSimilar
Q4 12:07
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
6.6%
Jack Browning punt for 15 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 21PUNT
4 plays · -1 yds · 1:3095% → 95%
Q4 12:07
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+5
5.3%
Jonah Coleman run for 5 yds to the SDSt 40Similar
Q4 12:07
2ND & 5
OPP 40
0
5.2%
Jayden de Laura pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:07
3RD & 5
OPP 40
-6
5.3%
Jayden de Laura sacked by Justus Tavai for a loss of 6 yards to the SDSt 46Similar
Q4 10:37
4TH & 11
OPP 46
0
5.0%
Kyle Ostendorp punt for 46 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 22FUMBLE
14 plays · 72 yds · 4:536% → 4%
Q4 10:37
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-5
5.7%
SAN DIEGO ST Penalty, False Start (Josh Simmons) to the SDSt 15Similar
Q4 9:51
1ST & 15
OWN 15
+1
5.5%
Cam Davis run for 1 yd to the SDSt 16Similar
Q4 9:51
2ND & 14
OWN 16
+15
5.4%
ARIZONA Penalty, Personal Foul (Christian Young) to the SDSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:51
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+8
5.6%
Kyle Crum run for 8 yds to the SDSt 43Similar
Q4 9:51
2ND & 2
OWN 43
+5
6.1%
Jaylon Armstead run for 5 yds to the SDSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:51
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+5
6.0%
Jaylon Armstead run for 5 yds to the Ariz 47Similar
Q4 9:51
2ND & 5
OPP 47
-5
6.4%
SAN DIEGO ST Penalty, False Start (Ross Ulugalu-Maseuli) to the SDSt 48Similar
Q4 9:51
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+10
6.0%
ARIZONA Penalty, Defensive Holding (Kyon Barrs) to the Ariz 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:51
1ST & 10
OPP 23
-4
6.9%
Kenan Christon run for a loss of 4 yards to the Ariz 27Similar
Q4 9:51
2ND & 14
OPP 27
0
6.3%
William Haskell pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:51
3RD & 14
OPP 27
0
6.0%
Kenan Christon run for no gain to the Ariz 27Similar
Q4 9:51
4TH & 14
OPP 27
+15
5.8%
William Haskell run for 15 yds to the Ariz 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:44
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+4
3.7%
Chance Bell run for 4 yds to the Ariz 8 Chance Bell fumbled, recovered by Ariz Kolbe CageSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 23DOWNS
10 plays · 72 yds · 4:5597% → 99%
Q4 5:44
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+5
2.9%
DJ Williams run for 5 yds to the Ariz 13Similar
Q4 5:44
2ND & 5
OWN 13
+3
2.7%
DJ Williams run for 3 yds to the Ariz 16Similar
Q4 5:44
3RD & 2
OWN 16
+38
2.8%
Jayden de Laura pass complete to Jacob Cowing for 38 yds to the SDSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:06
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+17
1.3%
DJ Williams run for 17 yds to the SDSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:06
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+2
1.3%
Jonah Coleman run for 2 yds to the SDSt 27Similar
Q4 3:06
2ND & 8
OPP 27
+4
1.3%
Jonah Coleman run for 4 yds to the SDSt 23Similar
Q4 3:06
3RD & 4
OPP 23
0
1.3%
Jonah Coleman run for no gain to the SDSt 23Similar
Q4 0:49
4TH & 4
OPP 23
+3
1.0%
Michael Wiley run for 3 yds to the SDSt 20Similar
Q4 0:49
4TH & 4
OPP 23
+3
1.0%
Michael Wiley run for 3 yds to the SDSt 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 24END OF GAME
2 plays · 4 yds · 0:492% → 2%
Q4 0:49
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
1.7%
Jaylon Armstead run for 2 yds to the SDSt 22Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 8
OWN 22
+2
1.6%
Jaylon Armstead run for 2 yds to the SDSt 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 12:40
Jayden de Laura pass complete to Jacob Cowing for 25 yds for a TD, (Tyler Loop KICK)
-18.2
TD · Q2 0:28
Jayden de Laura pass complete to Jacob Cowing for 4 yds for a TD, (Tyler Loop KICK)
-15.1
TD · Q4 13:02
DJ Williams run for 10 yds for a TD, (Tyler Loop KICK)
-14.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com