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SDSU

San Diego State 28 at Fresno State 32

FRES
2022 · Week 9 · Oct 29, 2022 · Valley Children's Stadium
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Win probability · FRES
modelFRES aheadSDSU aheadconfidence bandkey playFRES scoreSDSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 7:44 · Jack Browning run for 33 yds to the FrsSt 41 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+34.5+17.30−17.3−34.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 96Pregame prior+12.8Home team on offense−15.2Score differential−7.4Garbage-time factor−5.6Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−2.4Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−1.9
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 1:45: Jalen Mayden run for 1 yd for a TD, (Jack Browning KICK) — SDSU win probability +11.1 pts (now 50%) (top driver: SDSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 3:27: Jalen Mayden pass complete to Jesse Matthews for 7 yds for a TD, (Jarrett Reeser KICK) — SDSU win probability +24.9 pts (now 89%) (top driver: SDSU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 0:00: Jake Haener pass complete to Zane Pope for 8 yds for a TD, (Abraham Montano KICK) — FRES win probability +16.7 pts (now 34%) (top driver: FRES has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 1:09: Timeout SAN DIEGO ST, clock 01:09 — FRES win probability +11.5 pts (now 46%) (top driver: Blowout context favors the defense).
  5. TD · Q4 0:56: Jake Haener pass complete to Nikko Remigio for 37 yds for a TD, (Abraham Montano KICK) — FRES win probability +49.2 pts (now 95%) (top driver: FRES has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
FRES made the numbers' call on 5 of 6SDSU made the numbers' call on 3 of 4
  1. Q1 8:11FRES 4th & 6 at SDSU 17, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 75.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.1%−0.1
    38% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    75.2%
    80% to make
    Punt
    74.4%−0.8
    average punt
  2. Q1 0:36FRES 4th & 23 at FRES 20, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 69.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.7%−1.4
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    70.0%
    average punt
  3. Q2 5:47FRES 4th & 1 at SDSU 19, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 66.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    66.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    64.5%−1.7
    77% to make
    Punt
    59.4%−6.8
    average punt
  4. Q2 0:48FRES 4th & 9 at FRES 36, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 46.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.6%−1.2
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    46.8%
    average punt
  5. Q3 14:55SDSU 4th & 1 at FRES 36, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 52.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    52.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    49.7%−2.7
    42% to make
    Punt
    49.5%−2.9
    average punt
  6. Q3 7:44SDSU 4th & 4 at SDSU 26, up 11
    Close callWent for it · 61.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    62.2%−0.2
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    62.4%
    average punt
  7. Q3 0:35FRES 4th & 28 at SDSU 44, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.1%−3.6
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    13.0%−1.8
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    14.8%
    average punt
  8. Q4 11:06SDSU 4th & 1 at FRES 29, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 81.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    81.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    77.9%−3.4
    58% to make
    Punt
    71.5%−9.8
    average punt
  9. Q4 4:53FRES 4th & 10 at SDSU 10, down 11
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.7 ptsKicked a field goal · 12.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.0%
    24% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    11.3%−1.7
    88% to make
    Punt
    8.3%−4.7
    average punt
  10. Q4 3:55SDSU 4th & 5 at SDSU 25, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 90.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.6%−0.6
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    90.2%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
FRES made the numbers' call on 2 of 4SDSU made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 2:56SDSU Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    28.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    28.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 12:19SDSU Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    38.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    38.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 8:35FRES Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    66.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    66.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 1:45SDSU Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    50.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    50.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 3:27SDSU Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    81.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    81.3%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 0:00FRES Touchdown, down 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    23.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    22.9%−0.2
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 1:09FRES Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    12.6%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    11.7%−0.9
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 0:56FRES Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    80.4%−0.6
    97% to make
    Go for two
    81.0%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
FRESDrive 1FG
14 plays · 58 yds · 6:4981% → 80%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
81.3%
Jake Haener pass complete to Zane Pope for 5 yds to the FrsSt 30Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 30
-4
81.3%
Jake Haener sacked by Michael Shawcroft and Jonah Tavai for a loss of 4 yards to the FrsSt 26Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+16
81.3%
Jake Haener pass complete to Nikko Remigio for 16 yds to the FrsSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-10
81.3%
MIMS, Jordan rush to the left for a gain of 5 yards to the FST47 (TAVAI, Justus;MCMORRIS, Patrick). PENALTY FST Holding on SPOMER, Jacob enforced 10 yards from the FST42 to the FST32 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 20
OWN 32
+3
81.3%
Jordan Mims run for 3 yds to the FrsSt 35Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 17
OWN 35
+5
81.3%
Jake Haener pass complete to Erik Brooks for 5 yds to the FrsSt 40Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 12
OWN 40
+21
81.3%
Jake Haener pass complete to Zane Pope for 21 yds to the SDSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+5
81.3%
Jordan Mims run for 5 yds to the SDSt 34Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 34
+1
81.3%
Jordan Mims run for 1 yd to the SDSt 33Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 4
OPP 33
+12
81.3%
Jake Haener pass complete to Jalen Moreno-Cropper for 12 yds to the SDSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 21
0
81.3%
Jordan Mims run for no gain to the SDSt 21Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 21
+4
81.3%
Jake Haener run for 4 yds to the SDSt 17Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 6
OPP 17
0
81.3%
Jake Haener pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:11
4TH & 6
OPP 17
+35
80.0%
Abraham Montano 35 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 2TD
10 plays · 82 yds · 5:0920% → 25%
Q1 8:05
1ST & 10
OWN 18
-2
80.0%
Jordan Byrd run for a loss of 2 yards to the SDSt 16Similar
Q1 8:05
2ND & 12
OWN 16
+1
80.0%
Jordan Byrd run for 1 yd to the SDSt 17Similar
Q1 8:05
3RD & 11
OWN 17
+11
80.2%
Jalen Mayden pass complete to Mekhi Shaw for 11 yds to the SDSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:05
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+1
79.9%
Jordan Byrd run for 1 yd to the SDSt 29Similar
Q1 8:05
2ND & 9
OWN 29
+23
79.9%
Jalen Mayden pass complete to Mekhi Shaw for 23 yds to the FrsSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:05
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+4
79.5%
Chance Bell run for 4 yds to the FrsSt 44Similar
Q1 8:05
2ND & 6
OPP 44
+5
79.5%
Chance Bell run for 5 yds to the FrsSt 39Similar
Q1 8:05
3RD & 1
OPP 39
-10
79.5%
MAYDEN, Jalen pass to the left incomplete intended for RUDOLPH, Jay thrown to the FST35. PENALTY SDS Holding on SIMMONS, Josh enforced 10 yards from the FST39 to the FST49. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 8:05
3RD & 11
OPP 49
+21
79.8%
Jalen Mayden pass complete to Tyrell Shavers for 21 yds to the FrsSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:56
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+28
75.1%
Jalen Mayden run for 28 yds for a TD, (Jack Browning KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · -13 yds · 2:1376% → 74%
Q1 2:49
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+3
76.1%
Jordan Mims run for 3 yds to the FrsSt 36Similar
Q1 2:49
2ND & 7
OWN 36
-6
76.6%
Jake Haener sacked by Justus Tavai and Jonah Tavai for a loss of 6 yards to the FrsSt 30Similar
Q1 2:49
3RD & 13
OWN 30
-10
75.4%
Jake Haener sacked by Jonah Tavai and Caden McDonald for a loss of 10 yards to the FrsSt 20Similar
Q1 0:36
4TH & 23
OWN 20
-2
73.9%
Carson King punt for 42 yds , Jordan Byrd returns for a loss of 2 yards to the SDSt 18 SAN DIEGO ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (Tyrell Shavers) to the SDSt 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 4TD
6 plays · 74 yds · 2:4126% → 35%
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
74.3%
Jalen Mayden pass complete to Jordan Byrd for no gain to the SDSt 26Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 26
+7
74.5%
Jalen Mayden pass complete to Jordan Byrd for 7 yds to the SDSt 33Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 3
OWN 33
+6
74.1%
Jalen Mayden run for 6 yds to the SDSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+3
73.5%
Chance Bell run for 3 yds to the SDSt 42Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 42
+32
73.5%
Jalen Mayden pass complete to Tyrell Shavers for 32 yds Tyrell Shavers fumbled, recovered by SDSt for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:19
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+26
64.7%
Jalen Mayden pass complete to Kenan Christon for 26 yds for a TD, (Jack Browning KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 5TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 3:4467% → 72%
Q2 12:19
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
66.5%
Jake Haener pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:19
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+2
66.3%
Malik Sherrod run for 2 yds to the FrsSt 27Similar
Q2 11:28
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+29
64.6%
Jake Haener pass complete to Jalen Moreno-Cropper for 29 yds to the SDSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:28
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+3
66.6%
Jake Haener pass complete to Malik Sherrod for 3 yds to the SDSt 41Similar
Q2 11:28
2ND & 7
OPP 41
+10
66.6%
Jake Haener pass complete to Nikko Remigio for 10 yds to the SDSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:28
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+12
67.3%
Malik Sherrod run for 12 yds to the SDSt 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:28
1ST & 10
OPP 19
0
67.3%
Jake Haener pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:28
2ND & 10
OPP 19
-2
67.3%
Jake Haener pass complete to Jalen Moreno-Cropper for a loss of 2 yards to the SDSt 21Similar
Q2 8:35
3RD & 12
OPP 21
+21
71.5%
Jake Haener pass complete to Nikko Remigio for 21 yds for a TD, (Abraham Montano KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 6FUMBLE
2 plays · 12 yds · 0:3530% → 32%
Q2 8:27
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+12
70.0%
Jalen Mayden pass complete to Jesse Matthews for 12 yds to the SDSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:52
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
68.3%
Jordan Byrd run for no gain to the SDSt 28 Jordan Byrd fumbled, recovered by FrsSt Leonard Payne Jr.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 7DOWNS
5 plays · 9 yds · 2:0572% → 69%
Q2 7:52
1ST & 10
OPP 28
-1
71.8%
Jordan Mims run for a loss of 1 yard to the SDSt 29Similar
Q2 7:52
2ND & 11
OPP 29
+10
71.7%
Jordan Mims run for 10 yds to the SDSt 19Similar
Q2 7:52
3RD & 1
OPP 19
0
70.8%
Jordan Mims run for no gain to the SDSt 19Similar
Q2 5:47
4TH & 1
OPP 19
0
68.7%
Jordan Mims run for no gain to the SDSt 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 8TD
11 plays · 81 yds · 4:0233% → 50%
Q2 5:47
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+4
67.3%
Kenan Christon run for 4 yds to the SDSt 23Similar
Q2 5:47
2ND & 6
OWN 23
+7
67.1%
Jalen Mayden pass complete to Tyrell Shavers for 7 yds to the SDSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:47
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+3
66.8%
Jalen Mayden run for 3 yds to the SDSt 33Similar
Q2 5:47
2ND & 7
OWN 33
0
66.6%
Jalen Mayden pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:00
3RD & 7
OWN 33
+49
64.2%
Jalen Mayden pass complete to Kenan Christon for 49 yds to the FrsSt 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:00
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+3
61.1%
Jalen Mayden run for 3 yds to the FrsSt 15Similar
Q2 3:00
2ND & 7
OPP 15
0
61.1%
Jalen Mayden pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:00
3RD & 7
OPP 15
+12
61.6%
Jalen Mayden pass complete to Jesse Matthews for 12 yds to the FrsSt 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
0
60.9%
FRESNO ST Penalty, Offsides ( Yards) to the FrsSt 2Similar
Q2 1:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
49.8%
Jalen Mayden run for 1 yd for a TD, (Jack Browning KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 9PUNT
6 plays · 11 yds · 0:5752% → 51%
Q2 1:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
51.9%
Jake Haener pass complete to Raymond Pauwels for 10 yds to the FrsSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:45
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+1
52.3%
Jake Haener run for 1 yd to the FrsSt 36Similar
Q2 1:45
2ND & 9
OWN 36
+7
52.6%
Jake Haener pass complete to Zane Pope for 7 yds to the FrsSt 43Similar
Q2 0:57
3RD & 2
OWN 43
-7
53.1%
Jake Haener sacked by Caden McDonald and Zyrus Fiaseu for a loss of 7 yards to the FrsSt 36Similar
Q2 0:48
4TH & 9
OWN 36
0
51.4%
Carson King punt for 32 yds , Jordan Byrd returns for no gain to the SDSt 36 SAN DIEGO ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (Cedarious Barfield) to the SDSt 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 10END OF HALF
8 plays · 25 yds · 0:4850% → 51%
Q2 0:48
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+15
49.6%
Chance Bell run for 15 yds to the SDSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:24
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+3
49.9%
Chance Bell run for 3 yds to the SDSt 40Similar
Q2 0:24
2ND & 7
OWN 40
+13
49.3%
Jalen Mayden pass complete to Chance Bell for 13 yds to the FrsSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:24
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+15
48.5%
Jalen Mayden pass complete to Mekhi Shaw for 15 yds to the FrsSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:24
1ST & 10
OPP 32
-15
47.5%
SAN DIEGO ST Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (-15 Yards) to the FrsSt 47Similar
Q2 0:24
2ND & 25
OPP 47
-5
49.1%
SAN DIEGO ST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the SDSt 48Similar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 30
OWN 48
0
49.0%
Kneel down by MAYDEN, Jalen at SDS47 (team loss of 1), clock 00:00.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 11INT
8 plays · 48 yds · 4:3149% → 58%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+8
51.4%
Jordan Byrd run for 8 yds to the SDSt 26Similar
Q3 14:55
2ND & 2
OWN 26
0
50.6%
Jordan Byrd run for no gain to the SDSt 26Similar
Q3 14:55
3RD & 2
OWN 26
+29
51.6%
Jalen Mayden pass complete to Martin Blake for 29 yds to the FrsSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+7
49.6%
Chance Bell run for 7 yds to the FrsSt 38Similar
Q3 14:55
2ND & 3
OPP 38
+2
49.4%
Chance Bell run for 2 yds to the FrsSt 36Similar
Q3 14:55
3RD & 1
OPP 36
0
49.9%
Chance Bell run for no gain to the FrsSt 36Similar
Q3 14:55
4TH & 1
OPP 36
+2
51.0%
Chance Bell run for 2 yds to the FrsSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:24
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
42.3%
Jalen Mayden pass intercepted SAN DIEGO ST Penalty, Defensive Holding (Josh Simmons) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 12INT
7 plays · 49 yds · 2:4046% → 45%
Q3 10:24
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+16
45.7%
Jake Haener pass complete to Zane Pope for 16 yds to the SDSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:24
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+2
47.0%
Jordan Mims run for 2 yds to the SDSt 37Similar
Q3 10:24
2ND & 8
OPP 37
+9
46.9%
Jake Haener pass complete to Jalen Moreno-Cropper for 9 yds to the SDSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:24
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+14
48.5%
Jake Haener pass complete to Ty Jones for 14 yds to the SDSt 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:24
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+8
48.5%
Jake Haener pass complete to Zane Pope for 8 yds to the SDSt 6Similar
Q3 7:44
2ND & 2
OPP 6
0
45.4%
Jake Haener pass intercepted, touchback.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 13TD
8 plays · 80 yds · 4:1761% → 89%
Q3 7:44
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+6
39.0%
Jalen Mayden pass complete to Tyrell Shavers for 6 yds to the SDSt 26Similar
Q3 7:44
2ND & 4
OWN 26
0
38.5%
Kenan Christon run for no gain to the SDSt 26Similar
Q3 7:44
3RD & 4
OWN 26
0
38.9%
Kenan Christon run for no gain to the SDSt 26Similar
Q3 7:44
4TH & 4
OWN 26
+33
40.2%
Jack Browning run for 33 yds to the FrsSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:44
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+5
36.3%
Kenan Christon run for 5 yds to the FrsSt 36Similar
Q3 7:44
2ND & 5
OPP 36
+10
36.0%
FRESNO ST Penalty, Face mask (10 yards) (David Perales) to the FrsSt 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:44
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+6
35.4%
Kenan Christon run for 6 yds to the FrsSt 7Similar
Q3 3:27
2ND & 4
OPP 7
+7
10.6%
Jalen Mayden pass complete to Jesse Matthews for 7 yds for a TD, (Jarrett Reeser KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 14PUNT
8 plays · 21 yds · 2:5220% → 14%
Q3 3:27
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
20.1%
Jake Haener pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:27
2ND & 10
OWN 35
0
19.7%
Jake Haener pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:27
3RD & 10
OWN 35
0
19.6%
SAN DIEGO ST Penalty, Offsides (Keshawn Banks) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:27
1ST & 10
OPP 26
-7
23.1%
Jake Haener sacked by Jonah Tavai for a loss of 7 yards to the SDSt 33Similar
Q3 3:27
2ND & 17
OPP 33
+9
21.9%
Jake Haener pass complete to Zane Pope for 9 yds to the SDSt 24Similar
Q3 3:27
3RD & 8
OPP 24
-10
22.1%
HAENER, Jake pass to the right incomplete intended for MIMS, Jordan thrown to the SDS20; QB hurried by TAVAI, Jonah. PENALTY FST Holding on SPOMER, Jacob enforced 10 yards from the SDS24 to the SDS34 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 3:27
3RD & 18
OPP 34
-10
20.9%
Jake Haener sacked by Garret Fountain for a loss of 10 yards to the SDSt 44Similar
Q3 0:35
4TH & 28
OPP 44
0
14.4%
Carson King punt for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 15TD
2 plays · 10 yds · 0:3517% → 34%
Q3 0:35
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+2
17.2%
Jordan Mims run for 2 yds to the SDSt 8Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
33.9%
Jake Haener pass complete to Zane Pope for 8 yds for a TD, (Abraham Montano KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 16DOWNS
9 plays · 42 yds · 3:4774% → 82%
Q4 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+4
26.1%
Kenan Christon run for 4 yds to the SDSt 33Similar
Q4 14:53
2ND & 6
OWN 33
+6
25.9%
Jalen Mayden pass complete to Jesse Matthews for 6 yds to the SDSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+6
24.6%
Jalen Mayden pass complete to Mekhi Shaw for 6 yds to the SDSt 45Similar
Q4 14:53
2ND & 4
OWN 45
+17
24.4%
Kenan Christon run for 2 yds to the FrsSt 47 for a 1ST down FRESNO ST Penalty, Face mask (15 yards) (David Perales) to the FrsSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:53
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-5
24.1%
SAN DIEGO ST Penalty, False Start (Alama Uluave) to the FrsSt 43Similar
Q4 14:53
2ND & 15
OPP 43
+5
24.6%
Kenan Christon run for 5 yds to the FrsSt 38Similar
Q4 14:53
3RD & 10
OPP 38
+9
24.4%
Jalen Mayden pass complete to Mekhi Shaw for 9 yds to the FrsSt 29Similar
Q4 14:53
1ST & 15
OPP 43
0
24.4%
Jalen Mayden pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:06
4TH & 1
OPP 29
0
18.2%
Chance Bell run for no gain to the FrsSt 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 17INT
9 plays · 51 yds · 4:5722% → 17%
Q4 11:06
1ST & 10
OWN 29
-6
21.8%
Jake Haener sacked by Michael Shawcroft for a loss of 6 yards to the FrsSt 23Similar
Q4 11:06
2ND & 16
OWN 23
+4
20.7%
Jake Haener pass complete to Ty Jones for 4 yds to the FrsSt 27Similar
Q4 11:06
3RD & 12
OWN 27
+12
20.0%
Jake Haener pass complete to Jalen Moreno-Cropper for 12 yds to the FrsSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:06
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+12
23.1%
Jake Haener pass complete to Erik Brooks for 12 yds to the SDSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:06
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+5
24.8%
Jake Haener pass complete to Nikko Remigio for 5 yds to the SDSt 44Similar
Q4 11:06
2ND & 5
OPP 44
+4
25.7%
Jake Haener pass complete to Nikko Remigio for 4 yds to the SDSt 40Similar
Q4 11:06
3RD & 1
OPP 40
+4
25.8%
Jordan Mims run for 4 yds to the SDSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:06
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+16
25.4%
Jake Haener pass complete to Nikko Remigio for 16 yds to the SDSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:09
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
16.9%
Jake Haener pass intercepted, touchback.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 18FUMBLE
4 plays · -10 yds · 0:5989% → 89%
Q4 6:09
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-3
11.0%
Kenan Christon run for a loss of 3 yards to the SDSt 17Similar
Q4 5:22
2ND & 13
OWN 17
-2
10.5%
Kenan Christon run for a loss of 2 yards to the SDSt 15Similar
Q4 5:10
3RD & 15
OWN 15
-5
11.0%
Jalen Mayden sacked for a loss of 5 yards to the SDSt 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 19MISSED FG
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:1714% → 10%
Q4 5:10
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
0
14.4%
Jake Haener pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:10
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
0
14.4%
Jake Haener pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:10
3RD & GOAL
OPP 10
0
12.5%
Jake Haener pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:53
4TH & GOAL
OPP 10
+28
9.9%
Abraham Montano 28 yd FG BLOCKED blocked bySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 20PUNT
7 plays · 5 yds · 0:5890% → 92%
Q4 4:53
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
9.7%
Kenan Christon run for 3 yds to the SDSt 23Similar
Q4 4:38
2ND & 7
OWN 23
-5
9.6%
SAN DIEGO ST Penalty, False Start (Josh Simmons) to the SDSt 18Similar
Q4 4:27
2ND & 12
OWN 18
+2
9.1%
Jalen Mayden run for 2 yds to the SDSt 20Similar
Q4 4:27
3RD & 10
OWN 20
+5
9.7%
Jalen Mayden run for 5 yds to the SDSt 25Similar
Q4 3:55
4TH & 5
OWN 25
0
8.5%
Jack Browning punt for 55 yds, fair catch by Nikko Remigio at the FrsSt 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 21TD
13 plays · 80 yds · 2:4618% → 35%
Q4 3:55
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+11
17.9%
Jake Haener pass complete to Zane Pope for 11 yds to the FrsSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:55
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+4
18.8%
Jake Haener pass complete to Jordan Mims for 4 yds to the FrsSt 35Similar
Q4 3:55
2ND & 6
OWN 35
+5
19.7%
SAN DIEGO ST Penalty, Offsides (Keshawn Banks) to the FrsSt 40Similar
Q4 3:55
2ND & 1
OWN 40
+7
21.2%
Jake Haener pass complete to Zane Pope for 7 yds to the FrsSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:55
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+6
20.9%
Jake Haener pass complete to Nikko Remigio for 6 yds to the SDSt 47Similar
Q4 3:55
2ND & 4
OPP 47
0
23.1%
Jake Haener pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:55
3RD & 4
OPP 47
+20
22.1%
Jake Haener pass complete to Zane Pope for 20 yds to the SDSt 27 for a 1ST down SAN DIEGO ST Penalty, Offsides (Caden McDonald) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:55
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+6
26.0%
Jake Haener pass complete to Erik Brooks for 6 yds to the SDSt 21Similar
Q4 3:55
2ND & 4
OPP 21
+5
26.0%
Jake Haener pass complete to Nikko Remigio for 5 yds to the SDSt 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:55
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+7
26.0%
Jake Haener pass complete to Jalen Moreno-Cropper for 7 yds to the SDSt 9Similar
Q4 3:55
2ND & 3
OPP 9
+6
26.0%
Jake Haener pass complete to Nikko Remigio for 6 yds to the SDSt 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:09
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
34.7%
Jordan Mims run for 3 yds for a TD, (Jake Haener pass to Zane Pope for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 22TD
1 play · 37 yds · 0:0095% → 95%
Q4 0:56
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+37
95.4%
Jake Haener pass complete to Nikko Remigio for 37 yds for a TD, (Abraham Montano KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 23INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0023% → 23%
Q4 0:44
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
76.7%
Jalen Mayden pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 0:56
Jake Haener pass complete to Nikko Remigio for 37 yds for a TD, (Abraham Montano KICK)
+49.2
TD · Q3 3:27
Jalen Mayden pass complete to Jesse Matthews for 7 yds for a TD, (Jarrett Reeser KICK)
-24.9
End of Game · Final
Game over.
+23.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com